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Offseason Checklist 2022

Offseason Checklist: Toronto Maple Leafs

at CDT | by 12 Comments

With the offseason in full swing aside from the two teams in the Stanley Cup Final, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Another year, another first-round exit for the Maple Leafs, who were kicked out of the postseason by the defending champs. Sure, you could argue that they were closer to defeating the Lightning than either of the other two teams in the east that had the unfortunate task of trying to snap Tampa Bay’s streak but it doesn’t really matter at this point. The simple fact is that Toronto hasn’t won a playoff series in nearly two decades and all efforts this summer will be made to change that.

Figure Out The Goaltending

Right now, the Maple Leafs have three goaltenders under contract for next season. Petr Mrazek, Erik Kallgren, and Joseph Woll. That’s not exactly what someone would call championship depth in net. Mrazek is signed for two more years at $3.8MM and did not impress in his first go-round with the team, leading some to believe they’ll find a way to get rid of his contract this summer.

But the big question mark is Jack Campbell, who did an admirable job during his relatively short time in Toronto but may have priced himself out of their range. If the 30-year-old is looking to cash in on his first real chance at a lucrative multi-year contract, it’s hard to see how it will be with the Maple Leafs, unless they can find a way to clear up some other room. Even if they did move Mrazek’s money out and bring back Campbell, is the Kallgren-Woll duo enough depth behind him?

Add Youth To The Bottom-Six

With Ilya Mikheyev and Colin Blackwell both unrestricted free agents, Pierre Engvall and Ondrej Kase restricted free agents (who are both trade or even potentially non-tender candidates, because of the threat of arbitration), and Jason Spezza now in the front office, it could be a very different look at the bottom of the Maple Leafs’ lineup next season.

Deciding how many spots the team will leave open for competition among the younger players in the organization is a huge decision and one that could drastically backfire if they aren’t able to make the jump to the NHL full-time. Nick Robertson (20), Alex Steeves (22), Curtis Douglas (22), Nick Abruzzese (23), Pontus Holmberg (23), Joey Anderson (24), and others are potential options there, though they each come with very different skillsets.

With the cap squeeze coming in other areas, the team desperately needs some of these entry-level contracts (or minimum deals in Anderson’s case) to start paying off upfront.

Solve The Sandin Problem

When the Maple Leafs re-signed Mark Giordano to a hometown discount quickly after the season ended, the question immediately emerged: where is Rasmus Sandin going to play? The team now has Giordano, Morgan Rielly, and Jake Muzzin all entrenched on the left, while Sandin has struggled in his short time trying to play his off-side.

The 22-year-old is a restricted free agent for the first time and will need a new contract, but also some clarity on where exactly he fits into the picture for next season. Many fans have suggested a Muzzin trade to clear room for the younger Sandin but the veteran holds a full no-trade clause until next summer, so there would be complications even if the team did decide they wanted to move on–which isn’t clear anyway.

Given that they also have question marks on the right side with Justin Holl’s up-and-down season and Timothy Liljegren’s inexperience, how the Maple Leafs’ defense pairings shake out is a complete unknown at this point.

Find A Second-Line Left Winger

It may seem like a non-issue for a team that had no trouble scoring goals this season but the second-line duo of John Tavares and William Nylander often struggled to find chemistry with a rotating cast of left-wingers (and each other at times). With Mikheyev, perhaps the most natural fit there, likely moving on due to his open market price tag–Chris Johnston of TSN noted that the Russian UFA is looking for somewhere between $4-5MM on a per-year basis–it’s hard to see who will step into that void from the internal options.

Alexander Kerfoot has at times found success in the top-six but is really more of a third-line option, while a young skilled player like Robertson may not yet be ready. A free agent signing could be in the cards if the team can find some extra cash.

One thing that may play into the decision, however, is the emergence and development of prospect Matthew Knies. The second-rounder exploded this season with the University of Minnesota and played at the Olympics for Team USA. Knies is headed back to school for 2022-23 but could be an option for the Maple Leafs’ top-six as early as next spring, meaning any multi-year free agent move could create a logjam moving forward.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Offseason Checklist: Boston Bruins

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With the offseason in full swing aside from the two teams in the Stanley Cup Final, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Bruins.

It wasn’t a particularly eventful season for Boston who once again was one of the stronger teams in the Atlantic Division and while they wound up in a Wild Card spot, they were safely in a playoff spot early on.  However, they weren’t able to get past Carolina in the first round and since then, it has been a busy few weeks for the Bruins.  GM Don Sweeney will have a lot of work to do over the coming weeks, assuming a new contract gets worked out between now and then.

Hire A New Coach

It was a move that came as a surprise to some but Sweeney and team president Cam Neely opted to make a change behind the bench, dismissing Bruce Cassidy earlier this month.  This, despite the team going 245-108-46 under his watch during the regular season.  The playoff success hasn’t been there, however, with the team playing a game below .500 which likely played a significant role in the decision to make a change.  Cassidy wasn’t out of a job for long and now has a long-term deal to coach in Vegas.

This feels like a crossroads situation for the Bruins and, for the time being, at least, Boston isn’t being linked to many of the veterans that have been around the block with quite a few teams over the years.  Their current crop of known candidates consists primarily of first-time options (Seattle assistant Jay Leach, Toronto assistant Spencer Carbery, and Pittsburgh assistant Mike Vellucci) or one-time NHL bench bosses (David Quinn, St. Louis assistant Jim Montgomery, and Boston assistant Joe Sacco).

Turning to that type of coach could signal an openness to try a different path and perhaps even take a short-term step back as none of these options carry the type of win-now expectations that a ‘recycled’ veteran often does.  At any rate, Boston will want to have their new bench boss in place by the start of free agency on July 13th as the new coach will want to have some say in their personnel moves.

Re-Sign Or Replace Bergeron

Patrice Bergeron has been a fixture down the middle for Boston for the last 18 years.  He’s a five-time Selke Trophy winner and sits 18 points shy of the 1,000-point mark for his career.  The 36-year-old hasn’t shown signs of slowing down and is consistently one of their leading scorers.  But Bergeron is set to become an unrestricted free agent next month and there is some uncertainty about his future as a result.  This isn’t a case of him threatening to test the market and go elsewhere – he has already ruled that out – but rather a case of him deciding whether or not to hang up his skates and call it a career.

That would certainly be a devastating blow for the Bruins as they don’t have anyone in the system to replace him.  If Bergeron does retire, Boston will need to go hard after the notable middlemen in free agency highlighted by Nazem Kadri while Vincent Trocheck will also generate plenty of interest.  If Evgeni Malkin makes it to the open market, they could check in on him as well with a short-term offer.  The other route is to try to trade for an impact middleman but they don’t have their first-rounder this year, their next two second-rounders after next month’s draft, while their prospect pool isn’t the strongest.  That will make it difficult to trade for an impact center if it comes to it.

Adding one will certainly be a necessity if Bergeron retires as they don’t have anyone else that’s even an ideal second-line center let alone a top liner.  Erik Haula and Charlie Coyle have been hit or miss in key offensive roles in their careers and while they are quality secondary players, they aren’t ideal fits on the top trio.  With that in mind, if Bergeron returns, they could still use an impact center behind him.

Forecasting Bergeron’s contract if he chooses to come back is a difficult one since he is limiting his options to only the Bruins; it’s not implausible to think he’d sign a team-friendly contract to give them some extra cap flexibility.  As it stands, they have just over $2MM in cap space which is hardly enough to do much of anything with.  If Bergeron was to sign a one-year deal, he’d be eligible for incentives which would give them the ability to roll those onto the 2023-24 cap and buy themselves a bit of wiggle room for next season.

Determine Pastrnak’s Future

David Pastrnak has certainly provided plenty of value for a late first-round pick back in 2014.  Over his eight-year career, he is just shy of averaging a point per game and has been no lower than third in team scoring over the past six seasons.  Basically, he has been a consistent fixture on Boston’s top line while doing so at a team-friendly price as the 26-year-old has been under contract at $6.67MM for the last five years and is signed for the 2022-23 season at that price as well.

Obviously, Boston’s preference will be to sign Pastrnak to a contract extension as soon as he’s eligible once the new league year begins on July 13th.  It’s going to take a sizable financial commitment to do so and it’s fair to say his camp will be keeping a close tab on Johnny Gaudreau and Filip Forsberg this summer with Pastrnak’s price tag likely to fall somewhere between what those two get.  Something in the $9MM range is certainly doable.

However, there has been some speculation that Pastrnak may not be willing to sign an early extension which will certainly complicate things for Sweeney.  While Boston would undoubtedly command a significant return in a trade for him, doing so would also definitively close their window of contention; if Bergeron was to return, they could plausibly give that core one more chance so that has to be taken into consideration.  While it’s possible that they go into next season without a new deal in place, that does have its risks.  Accordingly, the Bruins will want to have a good sense of what Pastrnak’s intentions are before the start of free agency, so this will need to be near the top of Sweeney’s priority list.

Bring In Defensive Depth

On the surface, the Bruins have some decent defensive depth and will have Jakub Zboril healthy after he missed most of the season due to an injury.  With eight defensemen on one-way deals, it would seem like they wouldn’t need any more help.

However, Matt Grzelcyk is out until at least November and Charlie McAvoy is out until at least December due to offseason shoulder surgeries.  Mike Reilly also underwent offseason surgery but should be ready for training camp.

While Boston’s depth is decent, they’re going to need some extra bodies to get through the first couple of months of the season.  Jack Ahcan could be an option after getting into six games this year but they might want someone with more experience.  Accordingly, Sweeney may have his eyes on some veteran depth players for training camp PTOs or two-way contracts with an intention of having them play in Providence once everyone is healthy.  With the potential for an NHL roster spot or two to start the season, that could be appealing to those players as they consider their options in free agency next month.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Washington Capitals

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With the offseason in full swing aside from the two teams in the Stanley Cup Final, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Capitals.

It was a tough season on the injury front for Washington with three of their top forwards missing at least 35 games.  Despite that, the Capitals remained a top-ten offensive team and were able to get to the playoffs although they were ousted in the first round by Florida.  With an aging core, GM Brian MacLellan will have some work to do to keep this group in the playoff hunt as a rebuild isn’t likely in the cards.

Add Short-Term Offensive Talent

The recent news that Nicklas Backstrom has undergone hip resurfacing surgery should open up some LTIR flexibility for Washington.  While no firm timetable for a return has been announced, of the handful of players who have had the surgery, the quickest recovery was after an entire season.  Accordingly, MacLellan should be comfortable using a good chunk of his $9.2MM AAV on a replacement.  But as this hasn’t been termed a career-ending procedure (though it put an end to Ryan Kesler’s career), the Capitals will be limited in terms of what they can do to replace him.

Since the potential exists for Backstrom to play down the road, Washington should be limiting themselves to looking to either acquire a player on an expiring contract or signing a free agent to a one-year deal.  In doing so, they’ll be able to free up the cap space to integrate Backstrom back for 2023-24 without any issue and if he can’t return, then they’ll have the flexibility to spend next summer.

Of course, Backstrom’s injury leaves a big hole down the middle and let’s face it, there aren’t a lot of impact centers available on one-year contracts so the Capitals may need to get creative here.  Lars Eller can play in the top six in a pinch but isn’t an ideal fit there for a long stretch, nor is Nic Dowd.  T.J. Oshie has shifted down the middle to cover for short-term injuries but asking him to do that for a full season would be tough and it’s not as if he’s consistently healthy either.  Spending at least part of Backstrom’s money on help at center will be a must for MacLellan.

You might have noticed I haven’t mentioned Tom Wilson here who will be on LTIR as well to start the year.  However, since he’s due back a couple of months into the season, the Capitals can’t really do much of anything to replace him outside of recalls although they’ll be able to carry a max-sized roster at least.

Pick A Goalie; Deal A Goalie

When Seattle took Vitek Vanecek in expansion, it looked as if Washington’s decision of who to run with between the pipes had been finalized and that they’d run with Ilya Samsonov moving forward.  But a week later, the Capitals reacquired Vanecek and the questions returned.  After running that tandem for all of this past season, the questions still remain.

Vanecek’s campaign was practically identical to his rookie year (2.67 GAA, .908 SV% compared to 2.69 and .908, respectively) but his track record is still limited to just 79 games in the regular season.  While those numbers are decent, they’re also not starter-level either.  Meanwhile, Samsonov saw his numbers get worse for the second straight year (3.02 GAA, .896 SV%, both worse than the league average).  That said, Samsonov was a highly-touted first-round pick who has been perceived to have the higher upside of the two even though the results haven’t been there so far.

While it’s possible that the Capitals could opt to bring both goalies back (both are restricted free agents with arbitration rights as well), it feels like the time is right for a chance.  Washington was believed to be interested in Marc-Andre Fleury at the trade deadline although making a deal and remaining cap-compliant was next to impossible.  But if they were looking for a veteran then and have since suffered another quick playoff exit, it stands to reason they’ll be looking for a veteran upgrade again.  If that’s the case, one of Samsonov or Vanecek has to go.

The trade market for goalies rarely yields a significant return although the fact that both are young (Vanecek is 26, Samsonov 25) will help.  This is something that they may want to do sooner than later as well.  While it’s possible they could wait to see how free agency shakes out to see if there’s a vulnerable team or two, the risk is that if everyone finds alternative options between the pipes, the Capitals could be stuck carrying three goalies into training camp.  If they want to avoid that, the choice of who to keep and who to trade will need to be made within the next few weeks before the start of free agency on July 13th.

Round Out The Back End

With Justin Schultz, Matt Irwin, and Michal Kempny all set to hit free agency this summer, there are a couple of slots to fill at the back of Washington’s back end.  The emergence of Martin Fehervary helps in that they don’t necessarily have to look for someone that can fill a spot in the top four although it would be a nice luxury if they opt to reallocate some of Backstrom’s money to the blueline.

Assuming none of those three free agents return, there will be a couple of different roles to try to fill.  Schultz took a regular turn on the second power play unit and the Capitals don’t have a lot of players that can run the point aside from their top two.  Accordingly, one of their two targets to fill out their defense corps should be someone that can play in that role.  The other role is Irwin’s, one that he did a good job with.  While he didn’t log a lot of special teams time, he was able to play on both sides and that type of flexibility is something that head coach Peter Laviolette certainly covets.

It wouldn’t hurt if at least one of those spots was filled by someone on a multi-year deal either.  The list of Washington’s NHL rearguards that are signed beyond 2022-23 starts and ends with John Carlson.  It wouldn’t be ideal to be in a situation where the Capitals are trying to rebuild half of their back end or more a year from now so if they can get a bit of stability with their depth options, it would be helpful.

Orlov Extension Talks

To that end, extension talks for Dmitry Orlov should be high on MacLellan’s priority list.  The soon-to-be 31-year-old is actually coming off a career season offensively with 12 goals and 35 points but overall, has been quite consistent with his offensive production, averaging between 0.35 and 0.46 points per game over the last seven seasons.  It’s pretty safe to pencil him near that rate for a little while longer yet.  Orlov has seen his ice time dip a little bit the last couple of seasons but he was just under 21 minutes in 2021-22.  Again, it’s pretty safe to pencil him in around the 20-minute mark for a few more years.

That helps set a ballpark price for what an extension should look like.  Orlov is a number two defender who, in an ideal world, would drop down a peg over the next few seasons as he gets older.  For that type of role at his age, Orlov should be in line for a raise on his current $5.1MM AAV but not a substantial one.  While the total AAV will likely depend on the length of the contract (do they work out, say, a six-year deal with the salary in the final season being a little lower to bring the cap hit down?), it should check in somewhere near the $6MM mark.  If Washington is comfortable around that range, they should be trying to work something out soon after he’s eligible for an extension in mid-July and ensure that a second key cog of their back end will be around for a while.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Minnesota Wild

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With the offseason in full swing aside from the two teams in the Stanley Cup Final, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Wild.

This past season was an interesting one for the Wild.  They were one of the top scoring teams in the NHL and knowing the cap adventure that lies ahead (more on that shortly), GM Bill Guerin made some moves to add at the deadline in the hopes of a long playoff run.  Instead, despite finishing fifth overall in points during the regular season, they were ousted in the opening round by St. Louis.  Now, Guerin has some work to do to be able to keep as much of this core together as possible which is the focal point of Minnesota’s checklist.

Free Up Cap Space

It’s not as if Guerin hasn’t known this was going to be at the top of his list at some point.  It would have been the case had they not bought out Ryan Suter and Zach Parise and it still is the case with them being bought out as their dead cap charge went up by $4MM for each player.  That’s hard for any team to overcome.  And that’s not the total charge, that’s just the increase; the total is over $12MM for next season.  (If you want to look ahead a year, it goes up by another $1MM each in the 2023 offseason as well; this isn’t just a one-time situation to navigate through.)

At the moment, Minnesota has a little over $7MM in cap space with which to sign multiple forwards, a defenseman, and a second goaltender.  That, on its own, might not sound so bad but once you factor in who some of those players are – that list comprises the rest of their checklist – it’s considerably worse.

It’s not as if there are some contracts that are well above market value on their books but $12MM in dead space is going to be very difficult to overcome.  A small move or two to free up some extra wiggle room could be the difference in whether they can keep a key player or not.  There’s a lot at stake as a result.

Sign Or Trade Fiala

If you read the above and immediately thought of Kevin Fiala, you certainly won’t be alone.  The winger has been in trade speculation going back to last summer with this exact situation in mind.

If the two sides would have been able to work out a long-term agreement last summer, that might have been enough to put an end to that speculation.  Instead, Minnesota took the rare step of pre-emptively filing for arbitration before eventually settling on a $5.1MM salary for this past season.  Fiala then went and had a career year, picking up 33 goals and 52 assists in 82 games, all career highs.  Overall, the Wild received really good value on that deal but things are only going to go downhill from here for them.

Fiala is now a year away from unrestricted free agency and while the Wild can’t take him to arbitration again, he can take them to a hearing, get a nice raise from the arbitrator, and hit the open market in 2023 in the prime of his career.  A long-term deal could approach the $7.5MM to $8MM range and while Guerin probably wouldn’t mind giving that to him, they’d have to part with another core player to make that happen.  At this point, it seems likely that the 25-year-old will be traded.

While Fiala doesn’t have a no-trade clause, he holds the hammer on this front as well.  Fiala on a long-term contract has a lot more value than Fiala on a one-year deal.  Teams can’t put conditional draft picks in a trade that are dependent on whether or not he signs either.  Guerin will need to work hard to get maximum value for Fiala (likely in the form of futures or young roster players) but will also have to work hard with the pending RFA to find a suitor that he’s willing to forego the open market to sign with.  There’s a lot of work to do on this front in a short period of time.

Sign Second Goalie

Guerin surprised some with the acquisition of Marc-Andre Fleury at the trade deadline in an effort to give them a second proven veteran goaltender for the playoffs.  He was a little better down the stretch than he was with Chicago and that got him most of the playing time against the Blues.  While it may have seemed like this was just a short-term pickup, Guerin has expressed a firm desire to keep Fleury around to split time with Cam Talbot next season.

While it’s certainly fair to say that Fleury will get considerably less than the $7MM AAV he had on his expiring contract, he still should have enough interest out there to get half of that price tag.  Even if Fiala moves for futures, Minnesota can’t afford Fleury at that price tag.  They have two options on that front.  One is to try to move a current roster player for someone making less and use those savings to afford Fleury’s new deal.  The other is to work out an incentive-laden deal that gives them the ability to roll over the bonuses onto the 2023-24 cap.  Of course, with the dead money going up, that’s only pushing the problem over, not fixing it.

If they’re unable to keep Fleury, Guerin will need to be aggressive on the open market for a replacement with Kaapo Kahkonen now in San Jose.  Talbot will turn 35 next month and while he’s still a capable NHL goaltender, he’s not someone that can handle 60-plus games next season.  They’ll need a fairly strong second option, one that will be able to play 30 or more games.  That will put them looking in the high-$2MM/low-$3MM range even if it isn’t Fleury.  Jesper Wallstedt is their goalie of the future but he’s a few years away from being NHL-ready.  They need to add another NHL option in the meantime over the coming weeks.

Re-Sign Middleton

The player Minnesota received in the Kahkonen trade, defenseman Jacob Middleton, is also in need of a new contract.  He’s a restricted free agent with salary arbitration rights and is a year away from UFA eligibility.  This is one of those situations where finding fair value is going to be a challenge.

Middleton has just 80 career NHL games under his belt, 66 of which came this season.  Heading into the year, he was a candidate for a deal around the $1MM range but after a strong showing with both the Sharks and Wild, he’s going to get more.  If it gets to an arbitrator, the award could be tricky to pin down because of the limited experience but that doesn’t give Guerin the hammer by any stretch since a low-ball offer could force Middleton to file for arbitration and see what his value is on the open market next summer.

A long-term contract doesn’t seem likely at this point given his limited track record but a deal that buys out a couple of UFA years could be doable.  The AAV would likely jump over $2MM in that situation but it would be a justifiable price.  Of course, the longer the contract, the harder it will be to fit the other pieces of the puzzle in from a salary cap perspective.  Middleton’s case isn’t as prominent as some of the others but it has to stay in the back of Guerin’s mind as he works his way through Fiala’s eventual trade and finding a second netminder.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Nashville Predators

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With the offseason in full swing aside from the two teams in the Stanley Cup Final, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Predators.

This was supposed to be a season of transition for Nashville.  At least, so it seemed.  They got weaker on paper over the summer and it looked to be the start of at least a small rebuild.  However, several underachieving veterans had bounce-back years and the end result was the Predators making the playoffs and then being swept by Colorado.  GM David Poile likes the term “competitive transition” as it relates to the state of his team so their checklist this summer keeps that in mind.

Add Impact Pieces

With the Predators looking to stay in the playoff hunt, they’ll need to put their cap space to good use this year.  With over $23MM at their disposal, they have some room to add a key player or two even after re-signing their own free agents.

Up front, their top six is still fairly thin with several question marks.  Matt Duchene had a career year with 43 goals and 43 assists.  At the age of 31, can he repeat that type of performance or was this just a season where everything went right?  Ryan Johansen had his best season since coming to Nashville back in 2016 while Mikael Granlund was only a few points shy of matching his career-best.  There is a question of sustainability for all three of those players and even if there wasn’t, another top-six forward to fill the role vacated by Viktor Arvidsson following his trade last summer is needed.

There was a time when Nashville had the best defense corps in the NHL.  That isn’t the case anymore.  Instead, the average fan would have a hard time naming anyone beyond Norris finalist Roman Josi and steady veteran Mattias Ekholm.  It’s not a particularly deep group and a top-four rearguard to push one of Dante Fabbro or Alexandre Carrier onto the third pairing alongside the recently-extended Jeremy Lauzon would go a long way towards shoring up that unit even if it doesn’t bring them back to the days of being the best group in the league.

Do these moves alone vault Nashville into contender status?  No, but if they want to stay where they are or give themselves a shot at moving up a bit in the standings, these would certainly help their chances.

Re-Sign Forsberg

Duchene wasn’t the only veteran to have a career year this season as Filip Forsberg did as well, notching 42 goals and 42 assists despite missing 13 games due to a stint in COVID protocol and an upper-body injury.  There’s never a bad time to set new benchmarks but the year before hitting unrestricted free agency for the first time is certainly a great time and that’s what Forsberg did.  The two sides engaged in talks off and on during the season but couldn’t reach an agreement and Poile held off on trading him at the deadline.

This is one of the most important contract negotiations in franchise history.  Forsberg has been a fixture in their lineup for eight years and the possibility of him jumping ship to another team less than a month from now has to be concerning.  It would certainly go a long way towards derailing their competitive transition.  Forsberg’s camp knows this and will try to wield that in discussions.

As for what the cost of a new deal will be, it won’t be cheap.  Forsberg is coming off a six-year, $36MM deal and as a 40-goal scorer, he can command considerably more than that; a contract in the $8MM to $9MM range should be achievable for him.  On top of that, a max-term agreement is certainly doable as well.  For Nashville, that’s eight years as long as it’s done before the start of free agency and seven years for everyone else.  Forsberg turns 28 this summer and a max-term deal for a winger coming off a career year that will make him the highest-paid forward on the team is not an ideal combination for the Predators but it’s one they’ll have to bite the bullet on to keep him in the fold.

Bring In Goalie Depth

With Juuse Saros, Nashville has their starter in place for the next three seasons on a below-market contract.  With Yaroslav Askarov, they believe they have their future starter in place.  Most teams would love that combination but the Predators still have some work to do between the pipes.

Poile brought in David Rittich to serve as Saros’ backup this season with the hopes he could rediscover his form from a few years ago.  That didn’t happen as he had a save percentage of just .889 in 17 appearances.  With Saros injured for the playoffs, Rittich faltered quickly, forcing head coach John Hynes to turn to third-stringer Connor Ingram who had all of three career NHL appearances up to that point.  Rittich is unlikely to return and while Ingram is on a one-way deal for next season, are the Predators ready to make him their backup?

If not, they’ll need to turn back to the free agent market and instead of looking for a low-cost option, they would be wise to aim a little higher and get a more proven second option to take some of the pressure off Saros and give them some extra injury insurance.  On the other hand, if they do want to go with Ingram, then adding a veteran third-string option becomes a must.  Askarov will play his first full season in North America next season and adding a veteran that can be called up as the backup when injuries hit to not interrupt Askarov’s development would be a wise move.  Either way, Poile will be goalie shopping next month.

Utilize An Unlikely Trade Asset

When Nashville dealt Ryan Ellis to Philadelphia last summer, they hoped that Philippe Myers would be a capable replacement.  Let’s just say that didn’t happen.  Instead, the 25-year-old struggled mightily when he was in the lineup, was a frequent healthy scratch, and cleared waivers before the trade deadline.  From there, they didn’t even bother sending him to their own AHL affiliate as he was loaned to Toronto instead.  And yet, despite all of that, he is one of Nashville’s more intriguing trade chips this summer.

Myers has one year left on his current contract at $2.55MM which, for someone that can’t crack an NHL roster, seems like the type of deal teams should be doing their best to stay away from, not acquire.  It’s a lock to be bought out.  But his contract is heavily backloaded and since he’s only 25, the buyout cost is one-third instead of the usual two-thirds.  The end result is that whoever buys him out this summer will receive a cap credit of $617K.  Yes, a team could increase their cap space next season by buying Myers out while they’d only have to eat a $633K cap charge in 2023-24.  Who could use some extra cap space this summer for a total cash outlay of $633K?  The short answer is a lot of teams.

There isn’t much precedent for a trade like this.  Toronto picked up Jared Cowen from Ottawa in 2016 who was in that situation but it was part of a nine-player swap which makes it difficult to ascertain his standalone value in that deal.  But with a lot of teams looking for cap space, it stands to reason that Myers will actually have some value this summer.  Even if it’s only for a mid-round pick in the end, getting an asset for someone that’s clearly on his way out the door would be a good way to start Nashville’s summer roster movement.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Vegas Golden Knights

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With the offseason in full swing aside from the two teams in the Stanley Cup Final, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Golden Knights.

There’s never a dull moment in Vegas.  That thought often applies to the city in general but it also certainly applies to their hockey team.  The Golden Knights made a big change in-season to land Jack Eichel which set off a cascade of frequent LTIR placements to keep compliant down the stretch.  With a banged-up roster, they came up just short of the playoffs, resulting in a change behind the bench.  Between that and their cap situation, GM Kelly McCrimmon has a lot on his plate over the coming weeks.

Hire A New Head Coach

Let’s start with an obvious task.  For the second time in their five years of existence, the Golden Knights made a coaching change when Peter DeBoer was dismissed last month after less than three seasons with the team.  Vegas certainly didn’t do poorly with him in charge as the team posted a .650 points percentage during the regular season while making the third round of the playoffs in the two seasons before this one.  But after missing the postseason this year, an outcome few would have expected in the fall, the change was made.

There is no shortage of veteran coaches available and with Vegas clearly in win-now mode, few expect them to look at a first-time option.  Barry Trotz and Bruce Cassidy stand out as two potential candidates although other former NHL bench bosses will be considered as well.

There is plenty to like about where Vegas sits.  They’re a perpetually competitive team with a strong nucleus that’s under contract for a while.  Spending is certainly never an issue as well.  If you’re a coach that’s looking for a spot to try to win right away, this opening may be the most desirable around the league which is good news for McCrimmon as he looks to find his next head coach over the next few weeks.

Free Up Cap Space

Then there’s the other obvious task this summer.  Vegas has been dancing around the Upper Limit of the salary cap for several years now with a continual expectation that it’s going to come back to get them soon enough.  The challenge for McCrimmon this summer will be freeing up some space without significantly hurting the core.

Let’s look at where things stand.  They have $200K in cap space and need to sign at least three forwards and have a healthy backup goalie with Laurent Brossoit having some uncertainty after having hip surgery this summer.  Considering the minimum salary remains $750K, there’s clearly some cutting to be done.

The obvious candidate is Evgenii Dadonov.  The winger was traded to Anaheim back at the trade deadline without Vegas realizing that Dadonov’s no-trade clause was still in effect and the Ducks were on it.  Eventually, the deal was rescinded.  To his credit, the 33-year-old didn’t let it be a distraction as he had 16 points in 16 games after the deadline.  However, he had a fairly quiet season overall with 20 goals and 23 assists in 78 games, production that is relatively low compared to his $5MM AAV.  While the Golden Knights don’t have a deep prospect pool to trade away from or many high draft picks, they’ll need to attach something to get a team that’s on Dadonov’s allowable trade list to take on the final year of his contract.

With Eichel in the fold, Vegas now has a top-line center while Chandler Stephenson has established himself as a quality second option.  That could put William Karlsson in some jeopardy.  At $5.9MM for the next half-decade, that’s a high price to pay to have premium depth down the middle.  He’s coming off a quiet season (35 points in 67 games) but with strong centers always in high demand, there should be some interest on the trade front and it’s worth noting that Karlsson can only block a trade to ten teams.

As for a blueliner that could fit the bill, Alec Martinez is coming off an injury-plagued year that saw him suit up just 26 times.  With Shea Theodore and Brayden McNabb being proven options on the left side of the back end, Martinez and his $5.25MM for two more years might be a potential cap casualty although he also has trade protection and can block a trade to a dozen teams.

Reilly Smith is set to hit the open market this summer and there is mutual interest in an extension.  At a minimum, one significant salary will need to be moved (likely Dadonov) but if they want to keep Smith in the fold, a second one will need to be moved out unless McCrimmon plans to get very creative with his LTIR usage once again.

Re-Sign Roy

Nicolas Roy had a breakout season in 2021-22, further bolstering their depth down the middle.  After putting up just 15 points in 2020-21, he had 15 goals this season along with 24 assists.  He also upped his faceoff percentage to 48.8%, an increase of 4% from the year before.  He took a regular turn on both the power play and penalty kill, helping his ATOI improve to a career-best 16:16 per game.  That’s quite a nice platform season as Roy enters restricted free agency this summer with arbitration eligibility for the first time.

Between that and Vegas’ cap situation, Roy could be an offer sheet candidate this summer if a deal isn’t done early.  With the new thresholds, a team could offer Roy $4.2MM ($4MM more than the Golden Knights have in cap space) and only owe a second-round pick in compensation.  For a 25-year-old with two years of team control remaining, that’s more than a reasonable price to pay.  With that in mind, McCrimmon will want to try to get this contract done sooner than later if possible to avoid any risk of an offer sheet and also ensure one of his core youngsters will stick around.

Look Into Adding Goalie Depth

Injuries were an issue for Vegas last season, particularly between the pipes.  Robin Lehner missed time with four separate injuries spanning 23 games and underwent successful shoulder surgery following a rather bizarre set of events where reports had him needing surgery with DeBoer insisting his starter was available to play.  Brossoit, meanwhile, had hip surgery last month as well.  Accordingly, there are some question marks (if Brossoit is still around and not traded as cap relief).

Vegas does have Logan Thompson who did a nice job down the stretch for them and as he’s now waiver-eligible, it’s safe to say he’ll be in the NHL picture.

The Golden Knights have a pair of goalie prospects signed for next season in Jiri Patera and Isaiah Saville but neither have seen NHL action.  If they have an injury with the big club – a likely scenario based on recent history – having a veteran option with AHL Henderson that has some NHL experience would be a worthwhile investment.  Experienced third-string goalies often bounce around and Vegas should be adding one to give themselves an insurance policy heading into training camp.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Vancouver Canucks

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that weren’t playoff-bound plus those who were eliminated in the first two rounds.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Canucks.

It was a season of change for Vancouver.  The big move to add Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Conor Garland last summer didn’t help, resulting in GM Jim Benning being shown the door with Patrik Allvin and Jim Rutherford coming over from Pittsburgh to lead the front office.  They underachieved under Travis Green, resulting in Bruce Boudreau taking over behind the bench and while they didn’t get to the playoffs, they were much more competitive in the second half.  Now, Allvin has some big files to tackle this summer as he looks to get the Canucks back into the playoff picture.

Free Up Long-Term Cap Flexibility

The Canucks have enough flexibility that they can navigate through this summer, keep the core intact, and give it another go next season.  But that doesn’t make the team any better and maintaining the status quo will only make it harder to make their cap situation work a year from now.  They have $48.5MM in commitments to ten players for 2023-24.  On the surface, that would appear to be manageable.  But J.T. Miller, Bo Horvat, and Brock Boeser aren’t in that group while Elias Pettersson will be extension-eligible at that time as well.  If those players all sign for market value, that really will limit them in terms of upgrading their roster.  That’s at the forefront of their offseason planning.

With that in mind, Allvin needs to find ways to create some extra space.  Tanner Pearson isn’t on a terrible contract at $3.25MM for two more years but they could save some money by replacing him with a cheaper piece, perhaps Russian free agent Andrei Kuzmenko who they’ve been linked to.  Jason Dickinson was brought in to solidify the third-line center spot, receiving a commensurate contract in the process, one that pays him $2.65MM for the next two seasons.  He didn’t fit in well in his first season with the Canucks, scoring just five goals in 62 games.  Finding a new home for one or both of them would give them a bit of wiggle room next summer when they’ll really feel the cap crunch.

To that end, one other route they could look to go is finding a taker for the final year of Micheal Ferland’s LTIR contract.  Yes, his $3.5MM AAV is an expiring deal next summer but if they can clear him out and stay out of using LTIR, they might be able to avoid the bonus overage penalty for 23-24 with Vasily Podkolzin and Nils Hoglander carrying sizable incentives in their contracts; Kuzmenko will likely have plenty as well if he winds up joining the Canucks.  They can manage the cap situation this summer but they will need to be aggressive in freeing up some flexibility from there.

Decide Miller And Horvat’s Future

Let’s dig into some of those players that are about to get a lot more expensive.  Miller is at the top of that list.  He’s coming off a breakout season that saw him lead the Canucks in scoring and narrowly miss out on reaching the 100-point plateau.  He also has spent a lot of time down the middle which will only increase his value.  He’s set to become an unrestricted free agent next summer and impact centers rarely become available.  Those that do get significant paydays and it’s safe to say Miller will be heading for one of those compared to the $5.25MM cap charge he’ll carry next season.  That expected contract is what had him in plenty of trade speculation leading up to the deadline.

Rutherford (who has made the rounds in the media lately) has made it clear in recent interviews that the team expects to be able to keep Miller in the fold.  Some of the recent comparable centers that have signed long-term deals (Mika Zibanejad, Tomas Hertl, and Logan Couture) all signed for $8MM or more while Sean Couturier came in just under that.  All received eight-year deals.  Miller’s production was higher than theirs this season but that was the only time he was over the point-per-game mark which should keep the AAV on a max-term extension somewhere in the range of those comparables.

If they go ahead and sign Miller to a deal like that, it’s going to make it harder to keep Horvat in the fold.  With Miller in the $8MM range and Pettersson needing a qualifying offer of $8.82MM in the 2024 offseason, can Vancouver really afford to have another high-priced pivot in Horvat?  While he won’t command the type of money their other two centers make, he’ll be in line for a raise on his $5.5MM AAV on his next deal and it wouldn’t be entirely shocking if he surpassed the $7MM mark.

While they may want to keep both of them in the fold, it will be very difficult for them to do so.  Accordingly, they’ll need to find out who is willing to stay and what the asking prices are and then decide whether to start shopping one now or keep both into the season in the hopes of getting back to the playoffs.  Some big decisions are on the horizon, to say the least.

Re-Sign Boeser

Most of Vancouver’s cap space this summer is heading for Boeser.  Unlike Pettersson, he’s subject to the old qualifying offer rules which means his salary from this season is his qualifying offer which puts the required tender at $7.5MM.  While the team certainly hoped that the winger would be able to emerge as a legitimate front-line winger, Boeser has yet to reach the 30-goal mark or record more than 56 points in a single season.  On the surface, that type of production for $7.5MM isn’t ideal.

If the Canucks tender Boeser, the winger can simply accept the offer and become UFA-eligible in 2023 or try his luck with salary arbitration and hope for a small bump up.  Neither is an ideal scenario for Vancouver as it would make him expensive and a rental all at the same time.  It doesn’t seem like there’s any chance they’d non-tender him but they could opt for club-elected arbitration to try to get him a little cheaper as the required offer would be 90% or $6.75MM.

Knowing that, Allvin will be wanting to try to get this one resolved sooner than later.  A long-term deal at or around this rate wouldn’t yield much in the way of savings but would ensure one of their top wingers will be around for a while.  If discussions on that front don’t go well, however, it’s reasonable to expect Boeser will be in trade speculation as well.

Revamp The Back End

On top of all of these decisions up front, Vancouver has some work to do on their defense as well.  Quinn Hughes has become a top offensive option and Ekman-Larsson is still a top-four rearguard even if he is no longer the player he was a few years ago with Arizona.  After that, however, things thin out quickly.

The Canucks don’t have much in the way of offensive options behind Hughes (Travis Dermott might help a little in this regard), nor do they have a lot of depth on the right side.  Tyler Myers is miscast in a top role while Luke Schenn is a capable depth blueliner but not someone who should be higher than the third pairing in an ideal situation.  That’s it for righties they can count on with Tucker Poolman’s availability being in question after missing basically half the season with recurring headaches and migraines.  There’s a case to be made that Vancouver needs a couple of top-four defensemen as a result although they’ll be hard-pressed to afford even one unless they can find a way to free up some short-term money for next season and some long-term money knowing what lies ahead in the 2023 summer.  Allvin certainly has his work cut out for him.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Winnipeg Jets

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that weren’t playoff-bound plus those who were eliminated in the first two rounds.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Jets.

After being ousted by Montreal in the playoffs a year ago, GM Kevin Cheveldayoff shored up the back end with the hopes that would help Winnipeg get to that next level.  Instead, they underachieved this season, both with and without Paul Maurice behind the bench, and ultimately came up short of reaching the playoffs.  Cheveldayoff once again will have some work to do to try to get the Jets back into the postseason picture.

Hire A Head Coach

With Maurice surprisingly stepping aside midseason, Cheveldayoff made the logical choice to elevate Dave Lowry to the interim head coaching role.  It didn’t result in the type of improvement they were hoping for as Winnipeg’s points percentage under Lowry (.537) was basically identical to Maurice’s (.534).  In other words, the coaching change didn’t move the needle.

Lowry was the logical choice at the time in that the team wouldn’t have had the opportunity to interview assistants currently employed if they made a full-time hire midseason.  While a handful of assistants are still working at the moment, the team has been able to do a more comprehensive search (beyond Barry Trotz, who is basically singlehandedly holding up the market right now).

While Lowry is expected to interview for the full-time role, a new voice from outside the organization would make the most sense.  A new system from a new coach could be a significant enough change to avoid needing to necessarily make any core changes to the roster.  Cheveldayoff is thought of as one of the managers who tends to be patient with his rosters so it’s quite possible that a big addition behind the bench could be their biggest move of the summer.  But with free agency fast approaching (where coaches want to have their input), a new coach will need to be in place soon.

Re-Sign Dubois

When Cheveldayoff decided to shake up his core early in the 2020-21 season with the acquisition of Pierre-Luc Dubois for Patrik Laine and Jack Roslovic, the 2022 offseason became a very important one for the Jets.  That corresponded with the end of Dubois’ contract as the 23-year-old is set to become a restricted free agent with arbitration eligibility this summer.  He has already gone through one contentious negotiation, one that ended with a trade request out of Columbus, and now, Dubois is two years away from being eligible to hit the open market.

He’s coming off a strong season, one that saw him reach a career-high in goals (28) while picking up 60 points.  That has him positioned to land more than the $6MM qualifying offer he’s owed but the question is how much higher should they be willing to go?  If they want to sign him to a long-term deal that buys up some UFA years (and Dubois is amenable to signing that type of contract), the AAV is likely to go beyond Kyle Connor’s $7.143MM price tag.  Do they want to go that high and reset the benchmark for their younger core?

On top of that, there is also a question of where Dubois best fits.  He was brought in to play center but he has spent a fair amount of time on the wing as well.  A long-term, big-money deal could potentially price them out of re-signing Mark Scheifele in a couple of years; does it make sense to do that for a player who may be better off as a winger than a center?

If it feels like there are a lot of questions for a pending restricted free agent, it’s because there are.  The route they go with Dubois will help shape their planning for beyond the 2022-23 campaign so getting this done sooner than later would be ideal.  Dubois is likely to file for an arbitration hearing if something isn’t worked out over the next six weeks so this is something that will need to be resolved by late July or early August at the latest.

Create Cap Flexibility

The Jets have around $18MM available this summer but have anywhere between seven and ten players to sign with that money.  A big chunk of that will go to Dubois which won’t leave a lot to spread around the rest of the openings.  Freeing up a bit of extra flexibility would certainly help Cheveldayoff to build out the rest of the roster without having to resort to signing several players for minimum-salary deals to stay cap compliant.  Forward depth has been problematic the last couple of years so being able to spend a bit more on their bottom six would help.

In order to do that, they will likely need to trade away from their back end as there really aren’t any viable non-core forwards that could be traded to free up space.  They have nearly $25MM tied up in their five most-expensive blueliners which is a lot.  Nate Schmidt didn’t have a great trade market a year ago and that likely hasn’t changed while Josh Morrissey and Neal Pionk aren’t likely to go anywhere.  That whittles it down to Brenden Dillon ($3.9MM through 2023-24) and Dylan DeMelo ($3MM through 2023-24); moving one of them to make a roster spot for a prospect like Ville Heinola or Dylan Samberg would give them some cap relief and also provide a chance for one of them to get an extended look in the NHL.  In a summer where many teams will be looking for some extra flexibility, any little bit helps.

Fill Backup Goalie Slot

Eric Comrie more or less got the backup goalie spot by default with the Jets due to his contract being at the league minimum.  To his credit, he did quite well this season, posting a .920 SV% and 2.58 GAA in 19 appearances, giving Winnipeg solid value from that backup spot.  But Comrie is set to become an unrestricted free agent this summer and after the year he had, he should be able to command more than $750K on the open market.

The Jets will once again need to shop towards the lower end of the market unless they can free up a few extra million in cap space but while Mikhail Berdin is on a one-way deal for next season, his performance with AHL Manitoba isn’t good enough to really contend for that spot so they will almost certainly have to look outside the organization if they can’t reach a new deal with Comrie.  Considering the opening day of free agency usually results in quite the game of musical chairs for netminders, this is something Cheveldayoff will need to address by July 13th.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: New York Islanders

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that weren’t playoff-bound plus those who were eliminated in the first two rounds.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Islanders.

This past season was a tough one for New York.  They were forced to start with a 13-game road trip to ensure their new arena was ready to go and got hit hard with COVID-related absences soon after.  That put them in too much of a hole to climb out of.  Despite making the Eastern Conference Final the previous two years, GM Lou Lamoriello opted for a coaching change, dismissing Barry Trotz and elevating Lane Lambert to the top role.  However, that can’t be the only thing they do this summer if they want to get back into contention; Lamoriello has a few other items on his to-do list in the coming months.

Add Scoring Help

Let’s get the obvious out of the way first.  Scoring has been an issue for this team for a while as they haven’t averaged three goals per game since the 2017-18 season.  Part of that can be attributed to Trotz’s defense-first system but there isn’t a lot of firepower on this team.  Only Brock Nelson and Anders Lee cracked the 20-goal plateau this season and over the final two months of the year, Mathew Barzal was regularly playing with Zach Parise and Oliver Wahlstrom; with all due respect to those players, that’s probably not the optimal combination for their most skilled forward.

Back at the trade deadline when the Isles were very quiet, Lamoriello opted not to make any changes, stating that his focus was on ‘hockey trades’ to bring in pieces that better fit his roster.

With the team having barely $12MM in cap space and several roster spots to fill with that money, they don’t have the financial flexibility to be aggressive bidders on the free agent market.  Accordingly, this is one of those situations where Lamoriello will make a hockey trade and move out an underachiever for someone that’s a better fit.  Wingers Josh Bailey (two years, $5MM AAV) and Anthony Beauvillier (two years, $4.15MM) are candidates to move from their existing forward group while veteran goaltender Semyon Varlamov (one year, $5MM) could also make sense if they find a trade that’s acceptable to the 34-year-old who has a 16-team no-trade clause.  Either way, whether it’s one of them moving or someone else, New York will need more offensive production to get back into the playoff picture.

Re-Sign Dobson

A good chunk of their cap space is going to be heading towards defenseman Noah Dobson who is set to become a restricted free agent this summer.  After his first two NHL seasons were relatively quiet, 2021-22 was a breakout year that allowed the 22-year-old to finish third on the team in points with 51 including 13 goals.  For perspective, the rest of their blueliners combined for 19.  Not surprisingly, Dobson’s ATOI jumped up by more than five minutes a night from his sophomore campaign.  In other words, he had quite the platform year.

While the Islanders would undoubtedly like to lock Dobson up on a long-term deal, that would go against Lamoriello’s tendencies as he has continually opted for bridge contracts for his core RFAs including Barzal and defenseman Ryan Pulock in recent years.  A short-term pact would also allow them some extra cap flexibility to try to upgrade their roster.  That makes the bridge deal the likeliest scenario.

The extremes between Dobson’s first two seasons and this one will make it tricky to find the right number and without arbitration eligibility, the Islanders hold more of the leverage.  A two-year deal with an AAV around the $3MM range which is more than what Pulock and Adam Pelech received on their second contracts while a third season could push it closer to the $4MM range.  Anything longer than that would walk Dobson to unrestricted free agency so it’s likely that three years is the maximum term that New York will want to go.  It may take a while – Dobson’s only leverage is to delay signing in the hopes of getting a better offer later – but eventually, the two sides will come together on a short-term pact.

Rebuild The Defense

Over the past few years, the NHL has started to shift towards a more mobile back end.  The Islanders have been one of the exceptions but now as they work to retool things under a new head coach, this is the right time to try to kickstart that change.

Zdeno Chara and Andy Greene have been successful defensemen in the league for quite a while but mobility has been an issue for both of them while their offensive games are also quite limited.  Both are pending unrestricted free agents and should be replaced with younger, better fits.  Sebastian Aho is more of a mobile blueliner but has struggled in his own end in limited NHL action.  He’s also a pending UFA and will need to be retained or replaced.  That’s three roster spots that they’ll need to try to fill within their limited cap space and in terms of in-house options, only Robin Salo might be able to push for a spot at the end of the roster.

It’s also worth noting that Scott Mayfield is a year away from UFA eligibility as well and will be eyeing a sizable raise from the $1.45MM cap hit he’s on now.  Any multi-year commitments they make this summer will offset how much they can give to Mayfield a year from now so that’s something Lamoriello will have to weigh as he navigates the open market this summer.

With Pelech, Pulock, and Dobson, the Isles have a strong core back end that is either signed or under club control for at least the next four years.  That’s a strong foundation to work with.  Now, improvements will need to be made at the bottom end within a very tight cap situation to start moving towards a younger, more mobile defensive group.

Work On Barzal Extension

Three years ago, the Islanders and Barzal eventually worked out a three-year bridge deal, one that will be expiring next summer.  That means once the calendar flips to the start of the 2022-23 league year in mid-July, the two sides will be able to work on a contract extension.  After the season, Barzal stated that he wants to work out a long-term contract and is hopeful to remain with New York for his full career, a proclamation that is certainly encouraging from the team’s standpoint.

Barzal will be owed a qualifying offer of $8.4MM which is 120% of his current AAV; that’s the lower number between it and his salary for next season ($10MM).  He’ll also have arbitration eligibility at that time.  That qualifying number, therefore, serves as the absolute minimum starting point for negotiations as if the 25-year-old doesn’t like what the long-term offers look like, he can simply accept the qualifier in 2023 and become UFA-eligible a year later.

The potential challenge here is that Barzal hasn’t exactly produced at a level that’s worthy of offering considerably more than the qualifier.  While he averaged more than a point per game in his rookie season, the most he has gotten since then is 62 points.  He’s undoubtedly their most gifted offensive player but in a more defensive environment under Trotz, his numbers have suffered.  If Barzal thinks things will open up under Lambert, it may make more sense for him to play out next season and see what happens from there knowing the qualifying offer will still be on the table at that time.  But if Lamoriello comes in with a long-term offer in the $9MM range, it might be enough to give Barzal a chance to play for the Islanders for a long time to come.

They may not get a deal done this summer but both sides seem likely to give it a shot.  It isn’t as pressing as some of the other elements that will affect their plans for next season but as the offseason goes on and things slow down, that would be an optimal time to get to work on Barzal’s file.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Columbus Blue Jackets

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that weren’t playoff-bound plus those who were eliminated over the first couple of rounds.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Columbus.

This season was a bit of a mixed bag for the Blue Jackets.  They weren’t expected to contend as their rebuild continued but managed to have their highest-scoring season in franchise history despite the exodus of veteran talent and they integrated several promising youngsters into their lineup.  However, despite that, they still missed the playoffs by 19 points.  At this point, it seems unlikely that they’ll make some big swings to try to get into the thick of the Wild Card race but instead, they’re more likely to stay the course which is to slowly build up; their checklist has that in mind.

Add Grit

Jakub Voracek has been around the league for a long time (14 years) so he should know a thing or two about roster composition.  Following the season, he told reporters including Jeff Svoboda of the Blue Jackets’ team site that the team has struggled when it comes to physicality and it’s something he’d like to see addressed so let’s start with that on their checklist.

Generally speaking, a team that has as young of a core as the Blue Jackets do (they had the lowest average age in the NHL going into the season and only got younger as the year went on) should want to insulate those players with a bit of toughness.  That doesn’t necessarily mean a throwback enforcer but a power forward or two that can play in the bottom six and still be a contributor.  Those players aren’t in as short supply as impact power forwards so they should be able to find some.  That won’t necessarily drastically improve their chances of winning in the short term but if it gives their younger players a little more confidence, there could be some benefits from those additions.

Re-Sign Laine

Last offseason, re-signing Patrik Laine was a priority and since he simply accepted his one-year qualifying offer, it’s back at the top of their list this time around as well.  While the value of the qualifier remains unchanged at $7.5MM, the 24-year-old has more leverage this time around.  He’s now one year away from unrestricted free agency and could simply accept his qualifier again (or file for salary arbitration) and ensure that he’d have a chance at hitting the open market in the prime of his career.

As a result, GM Jarmo Kekalainen will soon be engaging in serious discussions with Laine’s camp on a new deal if he hasn’t done so already.  If the winger wants to keep his options open instead of committing to a long-term deal, then the team will have to give serious consideration to trading him this summer; doing so by the draft would be preferable as some picks would almost certainly be part of any package.

Even if Laine is willing to sign a long-term contract, finding a number that works for both sides will be tricky.  This season was Laine’s first point-per-game campaign but he missed 26 games due to injury.  If we look at his career average on a per-82 extrapolation, Laine checks in at 35 goals and 31 assists.  Those are certainly good numbers but the market value for a player with that type of production isn’t far off the $7.5MM he made this season.  For him to forego testing the market, the Blue Jackets will need to come in above that but at what point does that become too much of an overpayment to justify (even with their current cap flexibility)?

Right now, for Columbus, Laine’s contract should be their top priority.  While there’s no firm deadline to get something done, if they want to know where things stand by the draft, that’s now less than six weeks away while free agency opens up a week after that.

Add Defensive Help

The good news for the Blue Jackets this season was that they set a franchise record for goals scored.  The bad news for them is that they also set a franchise record for the most goals allowed.  With several young forwards with room to continue developing, there’s some hope to maintain or even improve upon their offensive production.

However, there isn’t a lot of room for optimism to significantly improve that defensive number as things stand.  Their goaltending tandem remains intact with Elvis Merzlikins and Joonas Korpisalo with neither netminder coming off a particularly strong season.  Both are capable of being better but with the back end Columbus currently has, that improvement might not be too big.

Accordingly, this is an area that needs to be addressed.  They have a decent core of younger players which is fine for a rebuilding team but as they look to emerge from that, some veterans that are capable of playing an impact role should be added.  It probably won’t all come in one summer – this process will likely be gradual – but an emphasis on bringing in someone capable of playing the penalty kill and in key defensive situations would certainly help to stabilize things in the short term.

Gavrikov Extension Talks

Over his three years with the Blue Jackets, Vladislav Gavrikov has worked his way into a prominent role on the back end.  But because he waited until the age of 23 to come to North America, he’s already just a year away from unrestricted free agency after Kekalainen curiously signed him to a bridge contract that walked him straight to UFA eligibility.

With Seth Jones, David Savard, and even Ryan Murray departing in recent years, Columbus has seen some important defenders leave.  They did well to get good assets back for Jones and Savard in trades but the talent coming in hasn’t been close to the talent that left.  To lose Gavrikov next summer or even at the trade deadline would deal them another blow.

As a result, trying to work out an extension will be fairly high on Kekalainen’s to-do list, especially as the offseason progresses.  He’s going to be in line for a nice raise on his $2.8MM AAV especially coming off the year he had (33 points in 82 games while averaging over 22 minutes a night) but his salary for next season – $4.2MM – serves as a reasonable starting point for talks.  A multi-year offer a little above that rate (in the $4.5MM to $4.75MM range) might be enough to get it done and ensure that a key piece of their defensive squad is a pair of the post-rebuild future.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

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