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Offseason Checklist 2022

Offseason Checklist: Colorado Avalanche

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With the offseason in full swing, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming weeks.  Last up is a look at the Avalanche.

Generally speaking, a team that wins the Stanley Cup shouldn’t need to make a whole lot of changes.  Evidently, that’s not the case in Colorado as they have a new starting goalie (Alexandar Georgiev) and a new GM (Chris MacFarland with Joe Sakic moving up a rung) in just a couple of weeks after beating Tampa Bay.  MacFarland will have a few items to check off in the coming days as well.

Replace Defensive Depth

Sakic added defenseman Josh Manson at the deadline as a rental and while he didn’t have the exact same role he had in Anaheim (his minutes were more limited), he was a key role player in the postseason.  He’s likely to become an unrestricted free agent and there’s a decent chance he’ll move on.  Ryan Murray and Jack Johnson, who signed with Colorado last summer, are also set to become unrestricted free agents tomorrow and certainly aren’t locks to return.

That leaves Colorado with six blueliners that saw regular action last season and one of those (Kurtis MacDermid) is more of a winger than a defenseman at this point.  Another, Bowen Byram, has shown plenty of promise but has dealt with multiple concussions in his young career and had to take a step back to recover last season.  While the Avs will certainly be hoping that he’ll be able to stay healthy, expecting that to be the case would carry some risks.

With that in mind, MacFarland will need to add (or re-sign) at least one defenseman if not two to stay on the safe side.  These players likely won’t command long-term deals (especially since they’ll want to keep some flexibility for the future) and will be earmarked for the third pairing but that extra depth will be necessary to hedge against in-season injuries.  Fortunately for Colorado, while there aren’t many impact defenders available on the open market, there are several depth ones that are in the range that they’re going to want to pay.

MacKinnon Extension Talks

It’s quite possible that the biggest item on Colorado’s list this summer is to do something that won’t even affect their team for next season.  Nathan MacKinnon will officially enter the final year of his contract on Wednesday, making him eligible to sign a contract extension.  Prior to stepping aside as GM, Sakic recently indicated his intention of trying to get a deal done with his captain and there’s little reason to think that will change with MacFarland at the helm.

It sounds crazy to think now but at the time the 26-year-old signed his current seven-year, $44.1MM deal, there was some risk attached to it.  While MacKinnon had shown flashes of offensive dominance, he had also failed to reach 25 goals in a single season.  They were paying up with the expectation that he’d continue to improve and provide extra value by the end of the contract.  It’s safe to say he has done that and more as only two players in the league have more points than MacKinnon over the last five years.  (Both of them play in Edmonton if you’re wondering who they are.)

While the salary cap has flattened out in recent years and still has another couple of years on its current trajectory, MacKinnon is in line for a substantial raise on his next contract.  Connor McDavid’s deal represented 16.67% of the Upper Limit when it was signed; that rate applied to the current cap would push MacKinnon just past $13.75MM.  Granted, McDavid has been the better scorer but it’s not out of the realm of possibility that MacKinnon checks in around 15% of the cap which would put his next contract around the same $12.5MM AAV that McDavid currently has now.  It’s a price tag Colorado shouldn’t be balking at paying either as if he was to somehow hit the open market next summer, several teams would be going after him with that type of money.

At this point, there isn’t a lot to gain from waiting while there’s value in having certainty about costs moving forward as Colorado plans other moves.  Accordingly, expect a push to get something done on this front quickly.

Re-Sign Lehkonen

While Manson and some of their other late acquisitions were pending unrestricted free agents, that wasn’t the case for winger Artturi Lehkonen.  The extra year of team control was enough for Sakic to justify parting with one of their top prospects in Justin Barron to get him from Montreal at the trade deadline.  He certainly made an immediate impact with his new team, logging over 16 minutes a game in their middle six down the stretch and then scored two critical goals in the playoffs with the series-winner against Edmonton and the Cup-winner against the Lightning.

Lehkonen has arbitration rights in his final year of RFA eligibility so expect Colorado to take a run at signing him to a long-term deal that buys out his prime UFA years.  Such a move would push his AAV past the $4MM mark even though his highest point total during the regular season is 38 which he put up this year.  It’s a high price to pay for a winger that isn’t going to consistently light the lamp but his versatility and penalty killing ability made him an integral part of their team in the playoffs and it’s unlikely they will give him a chance to move on anytime soon.

Replace Outgoing Free Agent Forwards

While Colorado managed to get one prominent free agent off the table on Monday when they signed winger Valeri Nichushkin to an eight-year deal, they’re still set to lose a pair of key free agent forwards in Nazem Kadri and Andre Burakovsky.  Knowing the money that they’re going to be paying MacKinnon in 2023-24, they know they’re not going to be able to keep Kadri which creates a big opening down the middle.  While Alex Newhook has shown some promise, he’s not really for full-time duty in the top six yet and while J.T. Compher can hold his own when covering for injuries, he’s not the preferred option to take Kadri’s spot either.  Adding a proven veteran center on a short-term contract would be huge for the Avalanche.

Then there’s Burakovsky whose 61-point campaign likely priced himself out of what Colorado can afford with Lehkonen effectively taking his spot and role on the roster.  But another winger that can at least slot in on the third line with an ability to move up when needed would certainly help lengthen their attack.  The Avs have around $14MM to spend this summer with Lehkonen set to take up a sizable chunk of that.  Between a new center to replace Kadri and some defensive depth, there might be enough left for that type of winger to help keep one of the top attacks in the NHL three lines deep.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Tampa Bay Lightning

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With the offseason in full swing, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming weeks.  Next up is a look at the Lightning.

Tampa Bay came close to making it three straight Stanley Cup titles before falling to Colorado in the Final last month.  With the majority of their core still intact and their biggest offseason move already made when they sent Ryan McDonagh to Nashville to free up cap space, GM Julien BriseBois’ to-do list for the rest of the summer is fairly simple.

Re-Sign Or Replace Rutta

Part of the reason for the McDonagh deal was to free up cap space to re-sign two of their pending free agents.  One of those is defenseman Jan Rutta.  The 31-year-old has been a serviceable depth player for the Lightning over the last four seasons and played a regular role for the first time in 2021-22, suiting up in a career-best 76 games while chipping in with 18 points.  He’s coming off a two-year deal with a $1.3MM cap hit and after showing he can handle a full-time spot, he should be able to beat that on the open market.

While Tampa Bay would certainly like to keep him around and have had discussions on a new deal, BriseBois also has to consider that McDonagh’s minutes need to be replaced.  Rutta held his own playing 16 minutes a game but McDonagh logged 22.  Can Tampa Bay fill those extra minutes internally with someone like Cal Foote or will they need someone that’s capable of taking on a bigger role?  While BriseBois has stated his intention to keep and work with Philippe Myers (who came over in the McDonagh swap), it’s unlikely that they can count on much from him after the way this past season went.  If Rutta and Foote can’t cover bigger roles on the third pairing to help offset the loss of McDonagh, BriseBois may have to go for a more prominent blueliner which would certainly take them out of the running for their other UFA of note.

Re-Sign Or Replace Palat

That other UFA is Ondrej Palat.  The winger has been a regular in Tampa Bay’s lineup for most of the last decade, spending a lot of that time as a fixture in their top six.  Along the way, he has become a consistent secondary scorer, notching at least 15 goals in seven of the last nine years and dealt with injury trouble in the two he didn’t.  That type of consistency is very valuable to teams and an impressive showing in the playoffs that saw Palat finish second to only Nikita Kucherov in scoring.  That certainly bolsters his value as we approach the opening of free agency on Wednesday.  That’s good news for him but less so for the Lightning.

The 31-year-old is coming off a contract that saw him make an average of $5.3MM over the past five years.  If he gets to the open market, a similar price at a similar term is doable.  That’s one that Tampa Bay can’t afford, especially knowing they have to keep or replace Rutta as well.  Even with Brent Seabrook’s LTIR space, there isn’t enough money for Palat to receive market value and still keep or re-place Rutta.  A team-friendly contract is always an option – several have taken a bit less to re-sign in previous years – but with this likely being Palat’s last chance at a big contract, it would certainly be understandable if he wants to see what his other options might be.

If Palat winds up going elsewhere and they need to find a replacement, it wouldn’t be surprising if BriseBois looked for someone on a one-year deal.  With several key pieces in need of new contracts soon, a short-term contract would allow give them a boost now and maintain a little bit of flexibility for the 2022-23 offseason.  There will be players that don’t like what they have for long-term offers and would certainly view the Lightning as a favorable spot for a ‘pillow’ contract and going that route could give Tampa Bay a capable replacement without needing as long of a commitment.

Extension Talks

Tampa Bay has basically exclusively used short-term bridge contracts with their restricted free agents in recent years.  The reason is certainly understandable as they used the lower cost of those contracts to keep their core intact and with two Stanley Cups and a Prince of Wales Trophy in the last three years, it’s hard to say they made the wrong choice.  Going that way eventually has its consequences but with that type of recent success they’ve had, it couldn’t have gone much better.

But the consequences of that approach are only a year away.  Defensemen Mikhail Sergachev and Erik Cernak along with centers Anthony Cirelli and Ross Colton are all about to enter the final year of their respective bridge deals.  All four will have arbitration eligibility next summer.  Combined, they’ll have a cap hit of $13.675MM next season.  They will cost considerably more than that in 2023-24, likely surpassing the $20MM mark.  That’s going to result in the departure of another core player or two no matter what and BriseBois knows that.

While the Lightning could wait to work on these next summer, that’s a lot of big-ticket deals to sign in a short period of time and with arbitration hearings occurring after the bulk of unrestricted free agents have signed, getting into July with even a couple of these still pending wouldn’t be ideal.  Having the knowledge of what those players are going to cost before next June and July would be great for planning purposes while also giving those players certainly moving forward.  Are they going to get all of them signed now?  Probably not but the more they can finalize this summer, the easier it should be next summer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: New York Rangers

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With the offseason in full swing, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming weeks.  Next up is a look at the Rangers.

2021-22 saw the Rangers turn their fortunes around quickly.  A year after missing the playoffs, new GM Chris Drury made several key changes both on the ice and behind the bench and New York made it all the way to the Eastern Conference Final before being ousted by Tampa Bay, winners of two straight Stanley Cups at the time.  For them to have a chance at making it back to that point, Drury has some work to do this summer.

Free Up Cap Space

This is a common one for a lot of teams, especially as we reach this post of the series where we’re looking at the ones that went the deepest in the playoffs.  Generally speaking, those teams tend to have cap crunches.  Right now, New York has a little over $10MM in cap space.  Without context, that doesn’t look half bad.  However, they have about six roster spots to fill with that money, some of which will cost a fair bit to fill (more on those shortly).  They don’t have enough to fill all of those slots right now.

On top of that, winger Alexis Lafreniere, center Filip Chytil, and defenseman K’Andre Miller are all a year away from restricted free agency.  All three of them will be eyeing considerable raises while Chytil will have arbitration eligibility at his disposal as well.  Knowing that group will become more expensive has to be at the back of Drury’s mind as he navigates his offseason planning while it only increases the urgency for them to create some cap flexibility.  That said, roughly half the league is trying to do that so freeing up any sort of meaningful cap room is much easier said than done.

Add A Backup Goalie

One of those roster spots is for a backup goaltender.  Knowing they wouldn’t be able to keep him, the Rangers traded Alexandar Georgiev to Colorado just before the draft in exchange for a trio of draft picks, a decent return considering some felt he was a likely non-tender candidate because of his arbitration eligibility.  While they did well in that trade, now they need to replace him.

In recent years, the backup goaltender market has gotten considerably more expensive as more teams look to a platoon situation.  New York certainly won’t be doing that with Igor Shesterkin entrenched as their starter but his presence coupled with their cap situation will price them out of shopping near the top end of the market.  Instead, they’ll be looking at the more affordable end with veterans like Thomas Greiss, Martin Jones, and Jaroslav Halak being potential fits on one-year deals.  A trade with a team that has surplus depth (San Jose would be an option) would also be a short-term solution.

While they’re looking at goaltenders, Drury will likely want to add a second veteran as well, one to take Keith Kinkaid’s place with AHL Hartford if they opt not to bring the 33-year-old back.  If the Rangers decide to try to save some money on their backup slot, they could look at a pair of prototypical third-string options and see how things shake out in training camp to see who starts with the big club.  That would free up another million or so for other needs but such an approach would certainly be risky.

Bridge For Kakko

Three years ago, the hope was that winger Kaapo Kakko would be exiting his entry-level contract having established himself as a cornerstone piece of the franchise.  However, the second-overall pick in 2019 hasn’t been able to live up to his draft billing just yet.  He has shown some promising flashes but after an injury-plagued year that limited him to just 43 regular season games where he had 18 points and a postseason that saw him pick up just five points in 19 contests while ending with him as a healthy scratch makes it extremely unlikely that either side would be interested in a long-term commitment right now.  Even if they were, finding a dollar figure that would work for both sides would be next to impossible.

So, a bridge deal is what Kakko’s contract is going to be then.  Which route the two sides go from there becomes the question.  The more years on the deal, the more expensive it will be.  A one-year pact would give the Rangers the most short-term flexibility but would hand Kakko arbitration rights next summer when Lafreniere, Chytil, and Miller are up for new contracts.  A three-year deal would give both sides some security and a bit more longer-term flexibility but puts him a year from UFA eligibility so that’s not necessarily ideal as well.  The expectation is that a two-year contract, the most common bridge deal, is the one that will eventually get done with an AAV around the $2.5MM range.

Add Impact Center

Ryan Strome’s tenure with the Rangers hasn’t always been the smoothest (to the point where they pondered non-tendering him two years ago) but in the end, it has been a pretty good one.  He put up 195 points in 263 games over parts of four seasons with a cap hit no higher than $4.5MM at any time.  As far as second-line production goes, that’s pretty good.  It’s the type of consistency that eluded Strome earlier in his career and as he’s coming off a season that saw him reach a new career-high in goals with 21, the 28-year-old has positioned himself for another raise.  It’s one that New York might not be able to afford.

New York also added Andrew Copp at the trade deadline to lengthen their lineup and also to get an early jump on trying to sign him as Strome’s possible long-term replacement.  But with him seeking a contract comparable to Zach Hyman (seven years, $5.5MM AAV), it’s unlikely that Copp will be in their price range as well.

Chytil was the 21st pick back in 2017 with the hopes that he’d be able to emerge as a capable two-way middleman.  He has shown some upside at times but over the last four years, his point totals have ranged from a low of 22 to a high of 23.  That type of production isn’t enough to comfortably hand him Strome’s old job even though a full season with Artemi Panarin would undoubtedly boost Chytil’s numbers.

With the internal options basically off the table barring a change in contract demands, Drury will have to look elsewhere for his second pivot behind Mika Zibanejad.  Of course, the top free agent options in Nazem Kadri and Vincent Trocheck are going to land pricier long-term deals so they’re out of reach as well with New York’s current cap situation.  Finding someone capable of playing that role at a price tag that’s equal to lower than what Strome made the last two years is undoubtedly a tall task but Drury will need to find a way to fill that spot either through free agency or a trade over the next couple of weeks.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Edmonton Oilers

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With the offseason in full swing, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming weeks.  Next up is a look at the Oilers.

This past season was a good one for the Oilers as they were able to make it to the Western Conference Final for the first time since 2006 before being taken out by the eventual Cup-winning Avalanche.  Now, GM Ken Holland has some work to do to keep as much of the core intact while trying to add a piece or two to bolster their chances for next year.

New Deals For RFA Wingers

Let’s start with the free agent front.  Thanks to their cap situation, they were forced to give low-cost bridge contracts to wingers Kailer Yamamoto and Jesse Puljujarvi.  It worked in the sense that it allowed them to have enough flexibility to add some other pieces to their roster for 2021-22 and clearly, some of those additions helped propel them to the third round.  But now, those young wingers are about to cost more.

Yamamoto will be owed a $1.175MM qualifying offer but should more than double that on his next contract.  After a tough showing in 2020-21, the 23-year-old bounced back nicely, hitting the 20-goal mark for the first time while setting new career bests in assists (21) and points (41) as well.  He didn’t produce at the same point-per-game rate that he did in his rookie campaign but he spent most of the year in Edmonton’s top six, logging nearly 17 minutes a game.  Yamamoto is now arbitration-eligible and with the year he had, he’ll have a strong case to push for something in the high-$2MM range if it gets to a hearing.  Another short-term contract is likely to keep the cost down but it will cost a fair bit more this time around.

As for Puljujarvi, the 24-year-old has had more success in his second stint in the NHL and is coming off a career year of his own with 36 points in 65 games with impressive possession stats as well.  His playoff performance ended things on a sour note but with him being arbitration-eligible as well, he’s in line to earn considerably more than his $1.41MM qualifying offer.  At this point, a trade appears to be likely but that was the expected outcome a few years ago when he first wanted out.  If he sticks around, they’ll need to pay up to keep him.  If he goes, they’ll need to find a pretty good player to replace him, one that won’t come all that cheap.

Add A Goalie

Now, onto the obvious one.  Goaltending has been an issue for the Oilers for several years now and while Holland has tried to get in on the bidding for some of the notable free agents (such as Jacob Markstrom), he hasn’t been able to land an impact starter.  Keeping Mike Smith around was supposed to give them some stability but the combination of him and Mikko Koskinen was highly volatile.  Now, Koskinen is off to Switzerland while there has been plenty of speculation that Smith, who has one more year left on his contract, is expected to spend 2022-23 on LTIR after playing through several injuries during Edmonton’s playoff run.  That leaves a pair of openings to fill.

One of those can be covered internally by Stuart Skinner who didn’t look out of place in a dozen starts this past season.  He’s under contract for the league minimum for 2022-23 which will give Holland a little extra flexibility to work with.  However, the 23-year-old isn’t ready to be an NHL starter yet and hasn’t played 50 regular season games in a full professional year.  He’s someone that could be leaned on for 25-30 starts but anything more than that would be risky.  Accordingly, the Oilers will need a true starter or at least someone that’s capable of playing the strong side of a platoon.

Looking into free agency, there aren’t a lot of those available with some of the more prominent names coming off the board over the last 48 hours.  Darcy Kuemper will hit the open market with Colorado opting to go in a different direction and Jack Campbell remains unsigned.  Those are the only two goalies that made more than 35 starts in 2021-22.  Unless there’s a trade out there for an affordable goaltender to materialize, their options are limited and Edmonton will need to make sure one of those two is in their lineup on opening night.

Re-Sign Or Replace Kane

A few days ago, it looked like it would be quite difficult for Edmonton to have a chance at keeping Evander Kane in the fold.  The power forward fit in quite well after joining the team midseason and is well-positioned to land a sizable contract.  It probably won’t be as high as the one that San Jose terminated but he will land one of the bigger deals on the open market next week.  But with them offloading Zack Kassian’s contract to Arizona and Duncan Keith set to retire, more than $8.5MM in cap room is opened up.  Smith being LTIR-bound would give them another $2.2MM to work with although they’ll need that and more to fill the goalie vacancy.

All of a sudden, there’s at least a pathway towards Holland being able to take a legitimate run at keeping Kane around and ensuring a key part of their attack – he had 22 goals in just 43 games – sticks around.  If not, they’ll need to put that money to good use to bring in another top-six forward to replace him.  If they have to go the latter route, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Edmonton prefer a shorter-term option – someone like Claude Giroux – whose contract would expire by the time Draisaitl’s contract wraps up in 2025.  Keith’s retirement has given Holland a chance to bring back or bring in another key piece and they’ll need to take advantage of it.

Add Defensive Depth

Keith’s retirement also opens up a spot on the back end to fill as the soon-to-be 39-year-old logged nearly 20 minutes a night on Edmonton’s blueline.  While Evan Bouchard can conceivably cover a couple more than what he logged in 2021-22, the Oilers will need to find a replacement that’s at least capable of playing 16-18 minutes per contest.

On top of that, Brett Kulak and Kris Russell are pending unrestricted free agents, opening up a pair of slots at the end of their roster.  While Kulak is a candidate to be brought back – more so following the Keith news – a depth defender or two would go a long way towards giving them a bit of stability on the third pairing.  Philip Broberg has some upside but limited NHL experience so far while their current depth options like Slater Koekkoek and Dmitri Samorukov aren’t players they should be comfortable using on an every-game basis.

What they are or aren’t able to do here will largely be determined by what happens with their goalie situation and Kane but is something that Holland will be looking to address in the coming weeks.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Carolina Hurricanes

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With the offseason in full swing, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Carolina Hurricanes.

Dominant regular season, disappointing second-round exit. That’s two years running for the Hurricanes, who are 90-32-16 over the past two regular seasons and have barely anything to show for it. With plenty of talent scheduled for unrestricted free agency, and tough decisions cresting the horizon, this could be a huge offseason for general manager Don Waddell.

Is Martin Necas Part Of The Answer?

Forty points in 71 games isn’t bad. No one is saying that Necas deserves to be shipped overseas or jammed in the minor leagues. The 23-year-old is obviously good enough to contribute at the NHL level, and he’s proven it with 119 points over 203 career games. But time is starting to tick on his career in Carolina if he isn’t able to take the next step.

This is a player that was expected to be a leader by now, someone the Hurricanes could rely on to drive the second line and take some pressure off Sebastian Aho. Instead, he has been limited to the wing for basically his entire NHL career, saw a steep downturn in point production this year, and has been essentially replaced by Seth Jarvis on the team’s depth chart.

Now a restricted free agent, there have been rumblings that Carolina could be open to moving the 2017 12th-overall pick. Making a decision one way or another will have to be done soon, as Necas needs a new contract with the Hurricanes or any team they trade him to.

Replace Or Re-Sign Vincent Trocheck

If the Hurricanes do end up losing Trocheck to the open market, they’re going to need to find a second-line center. Jordan Staal has always been best suited as a third-line pivot, while Jesperi Kotkaniemi probably isn’t ready to take over that spot full-time. That means combing the free agent market or making a trade, since there isn’t another obvious internal option.

Of course, the team could just keep Trocheck as well, but given what he is likely to command on the open market–at least in terms of contract years–they may not want to commit. That could put them in a difficult position when July 13 rolls around, scrambling to find a replacement that costs less and fits into their fast, retrieval-oriented, system.

With Nino Niederreiter also set to become an unrestricted free agent, the Hurricanes have to be careful not to lose too much of their identity up front this season, chasing the answer somewhere else.

Sort Out The Defense

Hard to believe that a team like Carolina would need to add defense, given their history of overstocking the position, but that appears to be the case this summer. Ian Cole and Brendan Smith are UFAs, Ethan Bear is on the trade block, and Tony DeAngelo has already been given permission to talk to other teams, given the huge arbitration award he would likely receive if the team gave him a qualifying offer. The team isn’t in a desperate spot but there could be several new faces on the back-end at the start of next season.

One interesting wrinkle is the presence of Jake Gardiner, who has been deemed healthy enough to resume his career next season. The 32-year-old hasn’t played in over a year, meaning it’s completely uncertain what the Hurricanes will actually receive from him on the ice. It’s hard to rely on him providing value anywhere near his $4.05MM cap hit, muddling the situation even further.

Keep An Eye On Goaltending

For the second year in a row, Frederik Andersen disappeared with a mysterious injury when his team needed him most. The last time the veteran netminder appeared in a postseason game was the 2020 bubble, despite him winning the Jennings Trophy and finishing fourth in Vezina Trophy voting this year.

A .922 save percentage in the regular season is great, but if the Hurricanes can’t rely on Andersen by the time the playoffs roll around, none of it really matters. With him and partner Antti Raanta both heading into the final year of their respective deals, the Hurricanes will need to keep one eye open for any goaltending opportunities.

Sure, Pyotr Kochetkov looks like he might be something, but handing the keys over to a 24-year-old netminder in 2023-24 certainly doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence. If a chance to upgrade the position–even just health-wise–presents itself, Waddell and his staff need to strike.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Offseason Checklist: St. Louis Blues

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With the offseason in full swing, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Blues.

2021-22 was a decent season for St. Louis.  While they finished in third in a very tight Central Division, they got past Minnesota in the first round and then took the eventual Cup-winning Avalanche to six games.  GM Doug Armstrong can afford to keep most of the core together but there will still be a lot of work to do over the coming weeks.

Decide Tarasenko’s Future

Last summer, Vladimir Tarasenko wanted a trade but coming off another season that saw him miss extended time due to a shoulder issue and a $7.5MM cap hit, there were no takers.  Seattle had an opportunity to take him in expansion and passed.  The end result was somewhat of an awkward return to St. Louis.

It’s safe to say it worked out well for both sides.  Tarasenko was able to show that he’s fully recovered from his shoulder surgeries, getting back to the 30-goal mark while eclipsing 80 points for the first time in his career.  That was good enough for him to lead the Blues in scoring, giving them a much deeper offensive group in the process.

Now Armstrong has a decision to make.  The trade request hasn’t been rescinded and there should be a much better trade market for Tarasenko’s services this time around although it’s worth noting that Tarasenko has a full no-trade clause which could come into play as well.  The fact that the commitment is only for one year will help his value in a cap environment where it’s difficult to move pricey multi-year contracts.  Moving him would almost certainly yield some cap savings which could come in handy this summer.

But trading Tarasenko away now would also create a big opening to fill on the Blues as teams rarely get better after trading their top scorer.  While there’s definitely a risk in potentially losing him for nothing in free agency, that has to be weighed against their current situation where they’re a team with an eye on contending next season.  The next couple of weeks is when trade activity is at its peak so if Armstrong is pondering a trade, it may need to happen sooner than later.

Re-Sign Or Replace Husso

Coming into the season, Jordan Binnington was expected to be the starter for the Blues with Ville Husso, who had a quiet rookie year, serving as the backup.  That changed in the second half of the year when Binnington struggled and Husso stepped up with a .917 SV% from the beginning of January to the end of the season.  Unfortunately for Husso and the Blues, the 27-year-old struggled in the playoffs when Binnington was injured so his season ended on a down note.  However, Husso showed enough during the season to position himself as one of the top goalies heading into unrestricted free agency this month where he’ll also be one of the younger goalies to hit the open market.

That has him well-positioned to earn a significant raise after making the league minimum the last two years.  While it’s unlikely he’ll be able to command true starter money – he has 64 career NHL appearances (including playoffs) after all – Husso could reasonably expect to get the type of top backup money that has been thrown around in recent years in free agency.  Jonathan Bernier, a platoon goalie like Husso might be best suited to be, just received a two-year deal with a $4.125MM cap hit last summer from New Jersey.  With the potential for more upside, it’s quite possible that Husso could receive more than that on the open market on a multi-year commitment.

Is that something the Blues can afford on their books with Binnington still on the books for another half-decade at $6MM per season?  Is that a price they should want to pay even if they had the money to?  If Armstrong feels that the answer to one of those questions is no, then St. Louis will be among the teams joining the annual goalie shuffle that will take place at the start of free agency on July 13th.

Extension Talks

In their summer spending planning, the Blues will need to keep in mind that three prominent forwards (beyond Tarasenko) will need new contracts a year from now so any spending this offseason could cut into what they have for contracts in 2023 (unless they sign players to one-year deals).  Once July 13th hits, contract extensions can be worked out and Armstrong will be wanting to have those discussions somewhat quickly.

Ryan O’Reilly continues to be one of the more prominent two-way centers in the league.  He consistently produces at a minimum of a 60-point pace (over a full 82-game season), kills penalties, and is one of the most prominent faceoff players in the league.  He’s not a true number one center in terms of his scoring output but prior to this past season, he averaged more than 20 minutes a game for six straight years.  With a $7.5MM cap hit currently, O’Reilly – who will be 32 when it starts – could conceivably command a similar price tag on a long-term deal, one that runs a little longer than preferred to keep the AAV down.

Then there are a pair of prominent younger forwards who will be coming off their $2.8MM bridge contracts in Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou.  Both players hit career highs across the board in 2021-22 while surpassing the point-per-game mark.  A repeat performance on either side would only push the asking price higher than it might be this summer.  At this point, barring a significant drop-off next season, both players should easily double their current price tag at a minimum.  New long-term contracts for those two basically will offset any cap savings if one of Tarasenko or O’Reilly goes unsigned a year from now.

While he’s not at the level of the other three listed here, it’s also worth mentioning that center Ivan Barbashev will also be on an expiring deal next summer and is extension-eligible later this month.  He’s currently on a $2.25MM and is coming off a 60-point season.  The 27-year-old will be unrestricted in 2023 and is currently in a position to land a significant raise of his own.  It’s less likely that he’ll be extended now since his performance was an outlier relative to his first few seasons but if Armstrong intends to keep him around, he’ll be budgeting some room for that as well.

Create Cap Flexibility

If you read through that and thought to yourself that the Blues could use some extra cap flexibility, you’re certainly not the only one who thinks that.  Looking ahead to this summer’s spending, it should also be noted that on top of Husso being unrestricted later this month, so are winger David Perron and defenseman Nick Leddy, both quality veterans.

It’s well-known that there is a mutual desire for Perron to stick around which will cut into the $9MM of cap space they have to work with this summer and likely into 2022-23’s money as well unless they can convince the 34-year-old to take a one-year deal.  Doing so would put Perron’s next contract into 35+ territory so that’s not an ideal scenario from his point of view.  Between that and needing some money for Husso or his replacement, it’s unlikely that Leddy returns although St. Louis would undoubtedly love to try to bring in an upgrade there as well.

There’s one contract that stands out above the rest in terms of an overpayment that they’d likely want to get out of and that’s defenseman Marco Scandella.  At $3.275MM for two more years, it’s not as if it’s a massive above-market contract but they can likely find someone capable of covering his 18 minutes a game for less money.  After that, however, it’s important parts of their core that might have to be moved to create that extra wiggle room.  In an ideal world, Armstrong is able to kick that decision down to next summer and delay the tough decisions for another year but they’ll need to move one notable salary off the books to have a chance at that happening.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Calgary Flames

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With the offseason in full swing, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Flames.

After missing the playoffs in 2020-21, Calgary had a bounce-back season as they finished first in the Pacific Division and got past Dallas in the opening round of the playoffs before falling to Edmonton.  The Flames were among the top-scoring teams in the league and allowed the third-fewest goals which is a great spot to be in but GM Brad Treliving has some work to do to keep the core intact.

Re-Sign Gaudreau

Let’s start with a big one.  Johnny Gaudreau has been a cornerstone player for Calgary for the past eight seasons.  After a bit of a quieter showing in 2020-21, he rebounded in a big way, posting career highs across the board while finishing tied for second in league scoring with 115 points; only Edmonton’s Connor McDavid had more.  If you put any stock into plus/minus, Gaudreau led the league in that category with a whopping +64 mark; for context, he was only +21 for his career heading into the year.  All of this has resulted in the 28-year-old being set to be the top free agent on the open market later this month.

That is, unless Calgary is able to stop him from getting there.  But to do so, it’s going to cost a pretty penny.  You can be sure that Gaudreau’s camp is going to point to the contract that Artemi Panarin signed with the Rangers (seven years, $11.643MM) as a valid comparable.  Considering Gaudreau has the longer track record and a more impressive platform season, it’s certainly an understandable target to strive for although he is a little older than Panarin was at the time.  Clearly, that’s not a price the Flames have been willing to meet since an extension isn’t in place yet.

At some point, Treliving will have to focus on a Plan B as having this get to July 13th without a resolution would certainly be risky.  If a new deal can’t be done by the draft, the Flames may have to entertain the possibility of flipping Gaudreau’s rights and begin shopping around for a replacement.  There’s still some time to work out an agreement but it’s something that they will need to accomplish sooner rather than later.

Re-Sign RFAs

On top of needing to re-sign Gaudreau, fellow winger Brady Tkachuk is also in need of a new contract and it’s also going to be an expensive one.  The 24-year-old is a year away from UFA eligibility, has salary arbitration rights, and is owed a qualifying offer of $9MM.  Tkachuk is also coming off of a career year, one that saw him surpass the 40-goal and 100-point marks for the first time.  That gives him plenty of leverage in discussions as if he doesn’t like what Calgary is offering, he can simply accept the qualifying offer or try his hand in arbitration to try to get a bit more than his qualifier.

Of course, a lot of what the Flames can do here is dependent on what happens with Gaudreau.  Both players could be in line for $10MM or so on their next contracts and while they have a little over $26MM in cap space at the moment, they also have to sign six or seven forwards and three defensemen with that money.  If those two take up that much of the pie, that doesn’t leave much room for anyone else.

Speaking of anyone else, the Flames have another winger that’s in line for a sizable raise in Andrew Mangiapane.  He’s also coming off a career year of his own as he put up 35 goals and 20 assists in 82 games.  Prior to that showing, his previous benchmark for points was 32.  Like Tkachuk, the 26-year-old is also arbitration-eligible and a year away from UFA eligibility.  Mangiapane is owed a $2.45MM qualifying offer but could make a case to double that in a hearing.  While he’s someone that they’d certainly like to keep around, he also might be someone they have to move if the price tag gets too high.

The other RFA of note this summer is blueliner Oliver Kylington.  He doesn’t have the track record to command the type of money that the others on this list do but after being a depth player for the first few years of his career, the 25-year-old was a regular, collecting 33 points in 71 games while averaging over 18 minutes a night.  Those are elements that look good in an arbitration filing so he will be in line for a sizable raise after making the league minimum in 2021-22; three or four times that amount could certainly be doable, further adding stress to their cap situation.

Add Defensive Depth

Right now, Calgary has just three regular defensemen under contract for next season with Kylington’s eventual signing bringing them to four.  Juuso Valimaki is signed for $1.55MM but spent the majority of the season in the minors so it’s fair to question whether he’s part of their plans for next season.  It’s quite possible that he’s shopped around to try to free up a little more salary cap space.

Meanwhile, veterans Nikita Zadorov, Erik Gudbranson, and Michael Stone are all set to hit the open market later this month with it seeming quite unlikely that Zadorov will return.  Gudbranson could be an option depending on what happens with their other free agents while Stone could return at or near the league minimum once again.  Even if he does, Treliving is going to need to add some defensive depth.

Connor Mackey is a candidate to at least be on the roster on a full-time basis so that’s one spot but the Flames are going to need to add at least one external blueliner that’s capable of playing on the third pairing and if they don’t have plans to use Valimaki as a regular next season, they’re going to need to look for two of them.  Quality role players on the back end can generate strong markets but Treliving is going to have to try to find some bargains.

Add Center Insurance

For several years, Sean Monahan was a fixture at the top of the lineup for Calgary.  However, his play has steadily declined over the last couple of seasons with injuries starting to take their toll.  He underwent hip surgery for the second straight year back in April which puts his availability for the start of next season in question.  Even if he can return, it will be difficult for the Flames to count on much production from him.  On top of that, the injury will make it next to impossible to buy out the final year of his deal, one that carries a $6.375MM AAV as he’d need to be medically cleared.  That doesn’t seem likely to happen by the close of the first buyout window next week.

Meanwhile, the extra depth players that Treliving brought in last season are all set to test unrestricted free agency in trade deadline acquisitions Calle Jarnkrok and Ryan Carpenter while Trevor Lewis is also set to walk.  Between that and the injury to Monahan, what was once a positional strength now has some questions aside from Elias Lindholm and Mikael Backlund.

Internally, Dillon Dube can play down the middle but he has been used predominantly on the wing in his career and at this point, he probably isn’t a full-time option.  Adam Ruzicka played in 28 games last season but is he ready for a full-time spot in the lineup and if so, can he play on the third line or is he better suited for the fourth?

As a result, the Flames could stand to add a pair of middlemen, one that can play on the third line behind Lindholm and Backlund and a depth center that can kill penalties in the mold of Lewis, Carpenter, or Brad Richardson (who was with the team for most of the year before finishing up with Vancouver).  The latter won’t be too hard to find but the third-line option will be trickier, especially if there’s an expectation that Monahan will be able to return at some point.  Assuming that’s the case, they won’t be able to rely on him being on LTIR and spend his cap hit on a replacement.

There’s a sequence of events that needs to happen for Calgary in the coming weeks and each of these ties back to a central theme, the salary cap.  Treliving will need to get creative to keep as much of his core together as possible while still managing to fill the holes that will need to be addressed this summer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Florida Panthers

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With the offseason in full swing, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Panthers.

In some ways, it was a year of success for Florida.  They overcame an early-season coaching change with Andrew Brunette helping to lead the Panthers to the Presidents’ Trophy.  However, they were then swept by Tampa Bay in the second round, resulting in GM Bill Zito making another coaching change, bringing in former Jets bench boss Paul Maurice.  With that change done, his focus can shift to the roster which will need some work despite finishing first in the regular season.

Add Defensive Help

Back at the trade deadline, Zito opted to prioritize bolstering his back end before getting in on the Claude Giroux sweepstakes.  Beyond Aaron Ekblad, most of Florida’s defenders are players that have largely gone under the radar with players like MacKenzie Weegar, Brandon Montour, and Gustav Forsling rounding out their top four.  The offensive production they provided was certainly top-notch but Zito wanted a defensive focus.

That led to them paying a fairly high price tag to pick up Ben Chiarot a few days before the trade deadline with an eye on giving them some more grit and a shutdown presence.  Then, when Ekblad went down, freeing up some LTIR room which opened up the ability to add Robert Hagg, another physical blueliner.

But both of those players aren’t expected back this summer as they’re likely to move on in free agency unless something changes with their salary cap situation.  As a result, the deficiencies that Zito identified still exist.  As a result, he will likely be looking to add in at least a shutdown defender that can kill penalties and take some of the defensive pressure off Ekblad.

In an ideal world, that player will also come with some team control.  Weegar and Radko Gudas are entering the final year of their contracts with Forsling and Montour up a year later.  With a prospect pool that has taken some hits and is missing several high draft picks in the years to come, a bit of longer-term stability defensively would certainly be beneficial.

Huberdeau Extension Talks

As far as picking the ideal timing for a career year, winger Jonathan Huberdeau certainly did just that.  The 29-year-old led the NHL in assists this past season with 85 while finishing tied with Johnny Gaudreau for second in the league in points with 115.  On July 13th when the new league year starts, Huberdeau will be eligible for a contract extension and he certainly made a strong case for a very pricey one.

Internally, it stands to reason that Zito will try to cap Huberdeau’s price tag at or slightly below the $10MM given to Aleksander Barkov, whose eight-year, $80MM extension signed last year will begin next season.  Even in a flat cap environment, two players with an AAV in that range can be manageable.

Meanwhile, Huberdeau’s camp will certainly be keeping an eye on what happens with Gaudreau later this month.  The Calgary winger will hit the open market this summer and is only two months older than Gaudreau.  Whatever contract he winds up with will serve as a strong comparable, especially if an extension is worked out this summer.

With one year left on his deal, Florida doesn’t have to do an extension as soon as he’s eligible; Barkov’s extension came just before the start of the regular season.  From a roster planning standpoint, the sooner a contract gets done, the better which is why Zito will likely push to try to get something done as close to the 13th as possible but this is something that could just as easily drag out into next season as well.

Find A Taker For Bobrovsky

While teams can find a way to make the cap work with two players making $10MM, it’s a lot harder with three.  Sergei Bobrovsky also carries a $10MM AAV and if Huberdeau does wind up signing for that amount on his next contract, Florida’s cap situation becomes a whole lot harder to manage.  It’s a simple process of elimination as to which one goes.  It’s certainly not going to be Barkov and if they re-sign Huberdeau, it’s not to turn around and move him.  That leaves Bobrovsky.

The 33-year-old had a bit of a bounce-back year in 2021-22, posting a .913 SV% and a 2.67 GAA in 54 games.  Those numbers aren’t elite by any stretch but they were a sizable improvement compared to his first two seasons.  Unfortunately for the Panthers, that type of performance isn’t worth $10MM, not even close.

Between this, their cap space situation, and the fact that Spencer Knight is clearly Florida’s goalie of the future, it’s clear that Zito is going to have to retain a sizable chunk of Bobrovsky’s cap hit or take a fairly hefty contract back in order to facilitate a move.  They’re also going to have to work with the veteran to find a suitable home as Bobrovsky, who still has four years left on his deal, also has a no-move clause.

It’s possible that Florida can afford to bring Bobrovsky back for next season but it will come at the expense of adding to the back end or a veteran up front.  Knight will need to start playing more so while Bobrovsky is someone they could keep around, it doesn’t mean they should.  His name is likely to be in trade speculation as a result.

Free Up Cap Space

This one certainly involves Bobrovsky but he won’t be the only trade candidate.  As things stand, the Panthers have around $4MM in cap space for four or five players thanks to the new contracts for Barkov and Carter Verhaeghe and a $3MM increase in dead cap on Keith Yandle’s buyout.  That’s doable but it would just be depth additions, not impact ones.  If they want to add an impact piece or have a shot at re-signing someone like winger Mason Marchment (or Giroux, who will cost considerably more), they need to clear some salary.

Florida will get some short-term cap relief with Anthony Duclair starting the year on LTIR.  However, since the winger is expected to return from his Achilles tear, they’ll need to have cap space to activate him midseason.  That means they can utilize his LTIR to call up a player or two from the minors and carry a full roster but they won’t be able to spend that on a more prominent replacement.

Winger Patric Hornqvist ($5.3MM) and Gudas ($2.5MM) each have one year left on their contracts and have roles that can be filled by cheaper players so at least one of those two could be on the move to free up some cap flexibility.  Hornqvist has an eight-team no-trade clause while Gudas doesn’t have any form of trade protection.  Both players have played useful roles for the Panthers but the value of some extra cap space may very well outweigh the benefits of keeping one or both of them in the lineup for next season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Dallas Stars

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With the offseason in full swing aside from the two teams in the Stanley Cup Final, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Stars.

The Stars were able to secure the top Wild Card spot in the West this season, allowing them to avoid Colorado in the opening round.  They were close to pulling off the upset against Calgary but came up just short, resulting in a significant move behind the bench with Peter DeBoer taking over for Rick Bowness; the rest of the staff will need to be filled out.  In terms of their on-ice personnel, GM Jim Nill has some work to do this summer.

Re-Sign Or Replace Klingberg

John Klingberg’s contract situation is something that loomed over the club all season long.  While both sides have expressed a desire for him to stick around, they didn’t appear to be close during the regular season which led to what ranged from either a full trade request to Klingberg being extremely upset about the state of negotiations, depending on various reports.  At one point, his camp was given permission to speak to other teams which resulted in plenty of trade speculation leading up to the trade deadline although a trade obviously didn’t happen.

Now, the contractual situation jumps back to the forefront.  Klingberg was believed to be seeking a max-term eight-year deal with reports putting the AAV around the $8MM mark which would be nearly double the $4.25MM he had been getting for the past seven seasons.  The 29-year-old certainly has a strong case for the big jump as well.  He’s coming off a year where he collected 47 points in 74 games while only seven blueliners have more points than him over his eight-year NHL career.  He’s going to be one of the top players to get to the open market this summer.

Accordingly, Nill has a big decision to make.  Does he move close enough to Klingberg’s asking price at the eight-year term (which may not be too enticing since he turns 30 in August) or does he make other plans to replace him?  With some other big contracts on the horizon (more on those shortly), can they afford another pricey long-term commitment or would they be better off trying to sign or acquire a cheaper, shorter-term replacement?  Nill only has a couple more weeks to ponder that decision.

New Deal For Robertson

After spending most of his first professional season in the minors, Jason Robertson has quickly emerged as a legitimate top winger and in his first full year in the NHL, he provided Dallas with 41 goals (including a league-high 11 game-winners) and 79 points.  With the 22-year-old hitting restricted free agency for the first time this summer, he’s in line for a significant raise compared to his rookie deal.

Nill undoubtedly would like to sign Robertson to a long-term contract that buys out a few UFA-eligible seasons but that will be a tough task even with nearly $20MM in cap space simply because of who else needs to sign.  A long-term contract could jump into the $9MM range based on recent comparables including Minnesota’s Kirill Kaprizov (five years, $45MM) which would eat up about half of their cap space with that one and could prohibit them from keeping Klingberg in the fold or finding a similar replacement.  On top of that, Nill acknowledged earlier this month that the anticipated jump in the Upper Limit of the cap a couple of years from now could push prominent RFAs like Robertson into preferring a short-term deal.

With that in mind, a bridge contract, one that could free up enough cap room to try to take care of another pending free agent, seems like the probable outcome.  But even that will carry a high price tag.  Recent comparable players would put a deal for him in the $7MM range so the net savings compared to a long-term deal would be in the $2MM range.  With those deals, teams can get creative with the salary structure to yield a higher qualifying offer at its expiration which is something Robertson’s camp would likely push for if they go this route.  Worth noting, Robertson does not have arbitration eligibility and we’ve seen several in his situation wait until closer to training camp to put pen to paper on a contract.

Sign A Goalie Tandem

Another prominent restricted free agent this summer is goaltender Jake Oettinger.  He actually started this season in the minors but did so well after being recalled that he never went back.  The 23-year-old wound up posting a 2.53 GAA along with a .914 SV% in 48 games during the regular season and then was stellar in seven playoff contests, nearly helping them to get past Calgary despite facing an average of just over 40 shots per game.

This negotiation has the potential to be a bit of a longer one.  Part of that will be due to a lack of experience at the NHL level as Oettinger has just 77 regular season games under his belt.  Not a lot of goalies get pricey long-term deals with that limited experience.  Even if they do want to work out something on a longer-term basis, their hands will largely be tied with what happens with Klingberg’s new deal or replacement as well as Robertson’s new deals.  If both receive long-term expensive pacts, it’s going to force their hand into a short-term bridge agreement.  As Robertson’s case could take a while, that could drag Oettinger’s discussions out accordingly.

There’s also the matter of figuring out their backup goalie.  Braden Holtby had a nice bounce-back year with his best numbers since 2016-17 and while he’s not going to be considered as a top starter this summer, he could command a decent raise on the $2MM he made this season on a multi-year agreement.  Dallas might not be able to afford that.  Scott Wedgewood bounced around with three different teams this season but did well enough to be in the mix for a team that’s looking to save some money on their backup.  A one-way deal around the $1MM mark should be doable for him, giving him some rare job security in the process.

The Stars do still have Anton Khudobin under contract but after a year filled with injuries and struggles, they’ll undoubtedly be looking to get out of the final year and $3.33MM of his deal so he probably won’t be in their plans so they’ll need to sign both ends of their tandem for next season.

Hintz Extension Talks

While the first three parts of this are the biggest priority for Nill, he’s also expected to look into what a contract extension would cost for forward Roope Hintz.  Very quietly over the last couple of years, the 25-year-old has emerged as a viable top center and with a cap hit on his bridge deal of $3.25MM, Hintz has become one of the biggest bargains in the NHL.

That will change in the near future.  Hintz will enter the final season of his contract once the new league year begins on July 13th which means he’ll be eligible to sign an extension at that time.  Hintz had 37 goals and 35 assists this past season, good for career-highs in both categories but with DeBoer expected to play a more attack-oriented style, it’s reasonable to expect that Hintz could set new benchmarks in 2022-23.  If that happens, the price tag will only go up.

Hintz will only have one RFA-eligible year remaining when his current deal expires so, unlike Robertson or Oettinger, there isn’t an option to do a short-term contract to massage their cap situation.  If they can’t agree on a long-term deal, it’s possible that Hintz files for arbitration and takes a one-year award that takes him to the open market.  A long-term contract should eclipse the $7MM mark and their ability to offer such a deal may very well be determinant on what contracts Robertson and Oettinger wind up with.  When it comes to their summer spending and planning, everything is intertwined and this file, even though it doesn’t technically come up for another year, is no exception.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Pittsburgh Penguins

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With the offseason in full swing aside from the two teams in the Stanley Cup Final, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Penguins.

Despite some key injuries in the playoffs, the Penguins nearly got past the Rangers in the opening round which gave GM Ron Hextall a tough choice to either run it back with this same core with Sidney Crosby still a high-end center or to start a rebuilding phase.  Considering their stated intention is to keep their win-now window open, their summer checklist reflects that.

Get Goaltending Stability

Tristan Jarry was once viewed as Pittsburgh’s goalie of the future following a stellar junior career.  When Matt Murray was traded to Ottawa two drafts ago, he became their goalie of the present.  However, it’s now fair to wonder whether or not he’s their goalie of the future beyond next season.  The 27-year-old is coming off a strong regular season that saw him post a GAA of 2.49 and a.919 SV% but 159 games into his NHL career, there are still some questions about whether or not he should be their long-term starter.  If management is sold on Jarry, then working out a long-term extension with an AAV starting with a five would be worthwhile and that move can be made as of July 13th.

But what if they don’t feel that way or want to see what 2022-23 brings before making that type of commitment?  That’s when things start to get a bit dicey.  There is no Jarry-like prospect in the minors that’s a year or two away from being NHL-ready.  There isn’t even an NHL-caliber backup under contract with Casey DeSmith set to become an unrestricted free agent this summer and journeyman Louis Domingue (their starter for most of the playoffs) also hitting the open market.  In an ideal world, they would add a quality backup on a multi-year deal and give themselves a short-term upgrade at that second spot and a bit of longer-term stability.

Of course, an ideal world implies that they have the cap space to do this and accomplish their other summer objectives.  As we’ll get to shortly, the only way something like this could happen is if things don’t go well on those other fronts.  A short-term low-cost deal might be all they can afford and if they head into next season with Jarry on an expiring deal and a short-term backup, that’s not an ideal situation to have for a very important position.

Keep Or Replace Veteran Stars

Now, let’s get to the obvious.  Right now, Pittsburgh has over $23MM in cap space which sounds wonderful without context.  That context is that two of their long-time veteran stars, center Evgeni Malkin and defenseman Kris Letang, will become unrestricted free agents next month.  Accordingly, most (if not all) of their offseason planning will revolve around this duo in terms of trying to keep them or finding a way to replace them.

When healthy, Malkin remains a high-end NHL center and has averaged less than a point per game just once in the last decade.  However, there’s one other key thing that has happened just once in the last decade and that’s the 36-year-old playing at least 70 games in a season.  Malkin has had long run-ins with injury trouble and this past season was no exception which really complicates things from a valuation standpoint.  When Malkin is in the lineup and producing at a point-per-game rate, his market value isn’t that far off from the $9.5MM AAV of his soon-to-expire contract.  But since he can’t stay in the lineup consistently, it’s also a huge risk to give him that type of money.  The only way the Penguins can make part of his pay based on staying healthy is with a one-year deal and Malkin has no reason to accept that as he can likely land a three-year or four-year commitment next month.  While a pay cut is likely, it probably won’t be a substantial one.

Then there’s Letang.  Over the last four seasons, only three blueliners have more points than the 35-year-old.  The low-end in terms of AAV for those three players is $7.875MM (Victor Hedman who left money on the table to stay in Tampa Bay) and the high end is $9.059MM (Nashville’s Roman Josi).  You can be sure that Letang’s representatives will be pointing that out in negotiations.  Letang isn’t a stalwart defensive defender but he has killed penalties for the Penguins and while he has had injury issues of his own in the past, he has been healthier in recent years.  While Pittsburgh would love to try to get Letang for less than his expiring $7.25MM cap hit, he could very easily get more if he gets to the open market.  The length of the contract is a priority though so if the Penguins are willing to go with a longer deal than they might prefer, it should yield a lower AAV than he’d get otherwise.

Both players have been franchise stalwarts for the last 16 years but with everything else that Hextall needs to go this summer, it will be difficult to keep (or replace) both at market value and still have money left to fill their other needs.  But with how important those two are, they’re certainly going to try to find a way to make it work.

Create Cap Flexibility

If Hextall is going to be able to keep both of his veteran stars, keep some of the other notable pending UFAs (including wingers Rickard Rakell and Evan Rodrigues), find a quality backup goalie, and leave some wiggle room for in-season movement, something has to give.  Some tough decisions are going to need to be made on some impact players.

One of those is winger Kasperi Kapanen.  The team has twice used a first-round pick on him, first to draft him and then another to re-acquire him back in 2020 but the return on their reinvestment wasn’t great in 2021-22.  After an impressive shortened campaign, the 25-year-old struggled this past season, notching just 11 goals and 21 assists in 32 games while chipping in with three assists in their seven-game loss to the Rangers.  That’s not a terrible return on a $3.2MM cap hit but it’s safe to say they were hoping for more.  If they tender him a qualifying offer this summer (technically speaking, that offer is only worth $840K based on the structure of his expiring deal), Kapanen will be arbitration-eligible where his prior years could push his value closer to $4MM which is below the walkaway threshold.  His trade value won’t be overly high because of this situation so a non-tender is a definite possibility.  While that would create some extra flexibility, it’d also create another impact roster spot to be filled.

Then there’s Jason Zucker, another winger.  Former Penguins GM Jim Rutherford paid a sizable price to bring him in as well but he hasn’t been able to play at the level he did with Minnesota.  When he has been healthy (and that has been a struggle the last couple of seasons), he has been more of a secondary producer which isn’t great for someone with a $5.5MM price tag.  A buyout would give them a little less than $3.5MM in cap space for next season while adding $1.733MM to 2023-24’s cap but also would create another spot to fill.  Alternatively, a trade with some retention that yields less relief next season but carries no penalty for the following year is an option while they could also add a draft pick or prospect to try to get a team to take the contract in full.  None of these are desirable but carrying him on the books next season could cost them the ability to retain a more impactful player.

There are also some candidates to move on the back end.  Marcus Pettersson hasn’t lived up to his inflated contract, one that carries an AAV of just over $4MM for three more years.  Flipping him for someone that makes less money is something that can be considered.  John Marino ($4.4MM for five more years) has been in trade speculation going back to during the season and a similar idea could be done with him, especially if they’re able to bring Letang back.   It’s unlikely they can clear the full contracts but moving one of them could give them a little more financial flexibility.  Even with $23MM in cap room for the time being, the Penguins certainly are going to need all the financial flexibility they can get.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

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