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Offseason Checklist 2021

Offseason Checklist: Arizona Coyotes

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The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league finished up after missing the playoffs and several more having been eliminated.  It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Arizona.

2020-21 was not a great year for Arizona.  After making the playoffs last year through the bubble, they were hoping to make it two straight postseason appearances.  However, the same issues crept up as a lack of scoring proved costly.  Not surprisingly, GM Bill Armstrong is in for a very busy summer.  Here’s a look at some of the things the Coyotes should be looking to do.

Hire A Head Coach

The Coyotes have one of the four head coaching vacancies around the league after they decided to let go of Rick Tocchet after four seasons with the team.  In that stretch, they only finished in the top half of their division once while finishing no higher than 21st in goals scored.  Arizona is more of a budget team than one that will spend to the cap and it wouldn’t be surprising to see that be the case for their coaches as well.  That would seemingly take them out of the mix for most of the veteran coaches so it wouldn’t be surprising to see another first-time hire when they make their selection.

Rebuild The Back End

Arizona has had a capable veteran defense corps over the past several years but the time for change has arrived.  Alex Goligoski, Niklas Hjalmarsson, and Jason Demers are all set to become unrestricted free agents this summer, freeing up over $14MM in cap space in the process.  (Jordan Oesterle is also a UFA but his expiring cap hit of $1.4MM is a lot lower than the others and he could be brought back for a similar amount.)  While there are cases to bring Goligoski and Hjalmarsson back out of the trio, it would need to be at a much lower price tag.

This is going to be an interesting situation to follow.  If those veterans don’t return, Armstrong will need to bring in some proven replacements in a UFA market that doesn’t have a lot of them.  Of course, they can also leverage their cap space (bolstered by Marian Hossa’s contract finally expiring) to pick up a replacement in a trade.  Regardless, it looks like it will be a new-look blueline in 2021-22.

That said, the bigger question is how much they want to spend on the back end.  The Coyotes are consistently towards the bottom of the league in goals scored and this represents an opportunity to redistribute some of their money on defense up front in an effort to add a top-six forward or two.  Replacing the veterans with similarly-priced rearguards ensures that they’ll be a squad with a strong back end once again but that’s a roster composition that hasn’t worked for them lately.  If Armstrong wants to shake up the structure of the team, this is it.

Deal For Garland

Sometimes, teams can get lucky in the draft and that’s what happened with Conor Garland.  The undersized winger went unpicked in his first year of eligibility, was scooped up with a fifth-rounder by Arizona the following draft as a low-risk flier, and now, he finds himself as one of the top scorers on the Coyotes.  It has worked out great for the team so far, getting top-six production for a bargain price tag as Garland accepted a two-year low-cost bridge deal that carried a cap hit of just $775K.  As far as top bargains in the NHL go, he should have been in the conversation more than he had been.

It’s about to work out a lot better for the 25-year-old.  That bridge contract is up this summer and he’s about to become a restricted free agent with arbitration eligibility for the first time.  Along the way, he’ll be able to add several million dollars to his price tag for next season and beyond.  He’s two years away from being eligible for unrestricted free agency so if they wind up with a one-year pact and push the bigger commitment down the road, that’s not the worst outcome, especially with some questions surrounding just how much he’s worth.

It’s for that reason that Garland came up in trade speculation closer to the trade deadline where it got to the point that they were willing to move him although the right price obviously never got offered up.  Still, it suggested that Arizona may not view Garland as a long-term player to build around which makes the prospects of a long-term agreement in the coming weeks a little lower.  Accordingly, a deal could mean two different things here – a new contract, or a new team altogether.

Extension Talks

A pair of core veterans will be entering the final year of their contracts this summer and once the calendar flips to the 2021-22 campaign at the beginning of free agency, the Coyotes will be allowed to sign Darcy Kuemper and Phil Kessel to extensions.

Kuemper went from being a lower-end backup early in his career to one of the top goalies in the league after being acquired in 2018.  In each of the last two seasons, he was among the league leaders in save percentage but took a step back this season as his save percentage dipped to .907, his lowest since his final year in Minnesota.  Still, there has been much more good than bad for the 31-year-old and with Adin Hill not looking like a starter of the future (though he should be the full-time backup next season), there is a need for Kuemper to stick around a little while longer.

Meanwhile, Kessel has seen his offensive numbers plummet since joining the Coyotes but he still finished one point off the team lead in 2019-20 and led the team in points this season.  He may not be a player that can carry a line which is what they were hoping for when he was acquired in 2019 but he is still a capable, albeit streaky, scorer.  The free agent market wasn’t kind to wingers last year and it’s likely to be the case for most wingers this year as well which means he won’t have any success trying to find a deal close to his current $8MM price tag (with Pittsburgh still paying 15% of that).  If Armstrong is able to upgrade their forward group, Kessel could be in line for a rebound year which would give him a better case for a new contract a year from now.

Of the two, Kuemper seems like the likeliest to sign an early extension but Armstrong will undoubtedly be having discussions on both fronts in the months to come.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Cap information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Ottawa Senators

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The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league finished up after missing the playoffs.  It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Ottawa.

Expectations were low for the Senators heading into this season.  They were still not quite ready to come out of their rebuild and not many had them as a playoff contender.  That’s how it played out in the first half as they struggled mightily at times but as the year progressed, they became a lot harder to beat as they won 10 games over their final month.  Even so, they’re unlikely to deviate much from their current course of letting their top prospects play their way into bigger roles so the to-do list isn’t overly long for GM Pierre Dorion this summer; the heavy lifting to put the final pieces in place will come a little later.

Add New Bridge Veterans

The acquisition of Derek Stepan right before training camp raised some eyebrows, especially with Ottawa paying a second-round pick to get him.  The logic felt like they’d be able to recover that pick (with retention) at the trade deadline and the team would benefit from having someone like that to work with their young forwards.  It was the same type of idea for Erik Gudbranson, only that the acquisition cost was a lot lower.  It didn’t work out quite as planned with Stepan’s torn labrum that ended his season prematurely while Gudbranson (and Braydon Coburn) fetched next to nothing at the trade deadline.

Stepan, along with Artem Anisimov and Ryan Dzingel, are set to become unrestricted free agents this summer which means their elder statesmen are Evgenii Dadonov who, at 32, has more KHL seasons than NHL seasons under his belt and Nikita Zaitsev.  These are capable veterans but when young teams talk about ‘veteran presence’ to work with the youngsters, these two aren’t the types of players that come to mind.  Both have multiple years left as well (Dadonov two years, Zaitsev three) so they would appear unlikely to be flipped at the deadline if 2021-22 is similar to this season.

With that in mind, Dorion will likely want to add this year’s versions of Stepan and Gudbranson, veterans on expiring contracts that can play a certain limited role, work with Ottawa’s young players, and then be pushed out once some of their players with AHL Belleville are ready to jump up.  The good news for the Sens is that with so many teams looking to shed money this summer, they should be able to add some useful bridge pieces for a low cost and then flip them with retention at the deadline for more than they paid to get them.

Re-Sign Tkachuk

This is the big one for them as Brady Tkachuk is set to become a restricted free agent this summer.  It’s not as if he’s a dominant offensive player – his point-per-game averages per season range from 0.62 on the low end to 0.64 on the high end which is a roughly 50-point pace over an 82-game campaign.  That alone doesn’t make him a core piece.  It’s the physicality that he brings as well.  Tkachuk has become one of the top power forwards in the game quite quickly (he’s only 21) and those are incredibly difficult to come by.  It certainly stands to reason that Dorion will want to start discussions on a max-term deal with the winger soon if he hasn’t already done so.

However, the flat-cap environment doesn’t necessarily make an eight-year contract particularly appealing to Tkachuk.  If he believes that he can take a step forward offensively over the next couple of seasons, a bridge contract looks more desirable.  Look no further than his brother Matthew Tkachuk in Calgary who is playing on a three-year, $21MM pact but remains RFA-eligible at the end of it.  For the first two years, their offensive numbers were similar and while Matthew had a much better platform campaign offensively, that can be offset somewhat by Brady’s physicality and how unique of a player he is.  If that’s the rough ballpark for a short-term deal, that would seem more desirable on the surface than committing to a long-term pact.  It’s still a significant raise but gets him arbitration eligibility at the end of it and potentially a more favorable cap environment as league revenues start to stabilize.

Cap space isn’t an issue for the Senators as they’re well below the $81.5MM Upper Limit for next season so that won’t impact these talks.  Even so, with Ottawa’s likely preference being a max-term contract and it appearing to make more sense for Tkachuk to go with a bridge, it’s going to make for a very interesting negotiation in the weeks and months to come.

Bring In Defensive Upgrades

While there is help on the back end on the horizon (Jacob Bernard-Docker, Jake Sanderson, and Lassi Thomson), none of them are ready to step into Ottawa’s lineup next season.  Bernard-Docker will need some time with Belleville, Sanderson will remain in college, and Thomson’s first AHL season wasn’t particularly strong so more time there will be needed.

That means the defense corps that was in place for most of the season remains intact and while there is one strong piece (Thomas Chabot is definitely a legitimate top-pairing player), it’s a group that’s light on high-end options and even depth.  Erik Brannstrom hasn’t progressed as they hoped when he was the centerpiece of the Mark Stone trade with Vegas and Victor Mete (a pending RFA himself) was a late-season waiver claim.  Both are young enough to still have some upside but as far as in-house improvements go, that’s about all they can count on.

Again, a serviceable veteran or two that could be flipped at the deadline when Bernard-Docker and maybe Thomson are more ready to play would work.  But even with that, a controllable top-four pickup should also be high on Dorion’s wish list.  Not all prospects pan out so one more quality addition to go along with Chabot, Zaitsev, and Artem Zub would at least bolster their core group and allow ample development time for their prospects.  The flat cap could force some quality players to be on the move and Ottawa should be willing to deal some of their future capital to make sure they get a more significant addition and if they wind up with a surplus of quality defenders down the road, that’s quite a nice ‘problem’ to have.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Cap information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Vancouver Canucks

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The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league finished up after missing the playoffs and eight more being ousted in the first round.  It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Vancouver.

The Canucks underwent several significant changes over the offseason which made them a bit of a wild card team heading into the season.  However, they didn’t get off to a good start, had injuries all season, and a rough battle with COVID-19 in between.  The end result was a seventh-place finish in the seven-team North Division.  Ownership decided to keep GM Jim Benning around and he was able to get head coach Travis Green signed to a short-term contract, taking one big item off his to-do list.  There is still a lot of work to be done, however.

Free Up Cap Space

This one is pretty self-explanatory.  Benning opted to bring in several veterans over the last few offseasons to try to bolster his roster.  While some improvements were made, it also took away from their salary cap flexibility.  They’ve been into LTIR the last couple of years and are going to be hit with another bonus overage penalty next season.  Yes, they have some contracts coming off the books but those players need to be re-signed or replaced.  That will be tricky to do without creating some more flexibility.

To that end, Benning suggested at the end of the season that he’s open to using a buyout.  However, a lot of those deals (such as Loui Eriksson’s) have a structure that makes the net cap savings minimal.  There aren’t many viable options to choose from.  That’s why it’s not too surprising that Nate Schmidt’s name has surfaced in trade speculation as of late with the veteran having four years left at a $5.95MM price tag.

Keeping the core intact is one thing but finding a way to add to it to help Vancouver take a step forward will be a significant challenge for Benning over the coming months.

Replace/Retain UFA Defensemen

Let’s look at some of those expiring contracts, particularly on the back end.  Alexander Edler has been a fixture on Vancouver’s blueline since the 2006-07 season and he has made it clear on multiple occasions that he wants to remain with the Canucks.  He’s coming off a tough season but before that, he had been a steady two-way defender.  And even though the 35-year-old struggled, he still logged more than 20 minutes a night.  He won’t cost $6MM to sign again but his role isn’t one they can fill from within just yet either.

The other pending UFA that needs to be addressed is Travis Hamonic.  A late signee in the offseason, the veteran received a no-move clause which he used to keep himself with Vancouver past the deadline as there was trade interest in him.  A capable stay-at-home defender, he’s someone that should command more than the $1.25MM he made this season if he wanted to test the open market.  He doesn’t seem to want to so another bargain contract is a possibility.

Of course, dealing with (or replacing) these two doesn’t necessarily add to their roster but it’s still something that will need to happen in the weeks ahead.

New Deals For Young Stars

Adding to the challenges of dealing with the aforementioned defensemen is that most of the money coming off the books will be needed for new contracts for their two top youngsters in defenseman Quinn Hughes and forward Elias Pettersson as both are restricted free agents this summer.

Hughes has quickly become one of the more dangerous offensive rearguards in the league.  Over his two full NHL seasons, only three defenders have more points than his 94 – Victor Hedman, John Carlson, and Roman Josi.  (Cale Makar also has 94.)  That’s impressive company to be in and it will allow the 21-year-old to potentially command a significant contract even in this environment and with just 129 career regular season games under his belt, about the equivalent of a year and a half in non-shortened campaigns.  He’s not the strongest player in his own end but offensive stats often drive negotiations and that is certainly in Hughes’ favor.  It’s worth noting that while is a restricted free agent, he doesn’t have enough service time to be eligible for an offer sheet.

As for Pettersson, his platform year was hardly an ideal one.  He got off to a tough start offensively and then missed the final two months with a wrist injury, only managing 21 points in 26 games as a result.  However, the 22-year-old still has plenty going for him.  He had two seasons of 66 points before this one, quickly becoming a fixture on the top line in the process.  Pettersson also has the ability to play down the middle and that can usually boost a players’ value as well.  Unlike Hughes, Pettersson is eligible for an offer sheet (though that’s an unlikely outcome) but also isn’t able to file for arbitration.

In a perfect world, both players would sign long-term contracts that buy out some UFA eligibility, giving the Canucks their two top youngsters for the long haul.  But doing that costs considerably more money than a shorter-term bridge contract.  Vancouver can’t afford long-term deals for both of them while dealing with their UFA blueliners and filling out the rest of their roster (which still only gets them to where they were at the end of the season and not conceivably better as a result).  One could be doable depending on what else Benning has up his sleeve so they’re going to have to choose wisely as to who gets it and who doesn’t.

Extension Talks For Boeser

While they need to deal with Hughes and Pettersson, Benning also has to keep in mind the other big-ticket deal on the horizon as winger Brock Boeser will be a restricted free agent next summer which means he will be eligible to sign a new contract once the calendar flips to the 2021-22 season.  He’ll be a year away from unrestricted free agency at that time and since his deal was signed before the new CBA, the qualifying offer is the salary of the final season which is $7.5MM, well above his current $5.875MM AAV.

Knowing that increase will be coming in a year later, Benning would be wise to see what a long-term extension would cost which shouldn’t be much more than that qualifier in this cap environment.  That type of certainty would also be useful in terms of budgeting whether or not they can afford long-term contracts for their two star RFAs.

Even if they can’t hammer out a new contract now (one of the sides may prefer to wait and see what next year brings), getting an idea of what the framework of a deal would look like would be very useful as Benning looks to map out the rest of his offseason planning.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Cap information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Los Angeles Kings

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The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league finished up after missing the playoffs.  It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Los Angeles.

The rebuild has been in full effect for the Kings lately as they’ve missed the playoffs in three straight seasons while carrying one of the lowest payrolls in the league as they attempted to integrate several young players into their lineup with mixed results.  GM Rob Blake has done well in terms of stockpiling quality young talent (particularly down the middle) but his veteran core, led by Drew Doughty, are hoping to see some win-now moves made.  With their cap flexibility closing as their young players come off their entry-level deals, the time is right for Los Angeles to try to strike and accordingly, several items on their offseason checklist revolve around that idea.

Leverage Cap Space

This will be a common theme for the few teams that have cap room.  The Kings have a little more than $20MM in space for next season and perhaps even more notably, few free agents of consequence (more on one of those later).  While they have several contracts to hand out, some of those will be of the relatively cheap variety so they will have the ability to make a splash or two if they so desire.  They’ll be a team to watch for in free agency or on the trade market as a result.

Defensive Upgrades

Doughty has been a fixture on the back end for Los Angeles for 13 years and with six years left on his contract that briefly was the richest for a defenseman in NHL history, it’s safe to say he’s going to be there for a while yet.  However, while there are some supporting pieces in place, they don’t have the deepest of back ends and the rest of their players combined basically make what Doughty does ($11MM).

Matt Roy and Sean Walker have emerged as capable pieces but while both are signed for at least three more years, they’re more ideally suited to the bottom half of the depth chart.  Michael Anderson had a nice rookie year and has top-four upside, a projection that could also be extended to Tobias Bjornfot though he is a little further away from getting there.  They should be part of the picture for a while as well.

The depth thins out after that, however.  Olli Maatta didn’t have a great year and considering he was brought in as a cap dump from Chicago, it’s unlikely that he’s part of their long-term plans.  Kale Clague heads up a list of secondary prospects that could make it as role players.

At a minimum, one impact blueliner needs to be added to push most of their current ones down a spot on the depth chart to a more optimal position.  Doughty has been a workhorse for many years now and logged more than 26 minutes a night again this season.  But he’s 31 and can’t keep doing it alone for much longer.  His request for Blake to add help is certainly understandable and he probably wouldn’t mind one bit if that help came at his position.

Determine Athanasiou’s Future

Last fall, one of the more intriguing non-tender decisions revolved around winger Andreas Athanasiou.  Edmonton had just paid two draft picks for him at the trade deadline and needed to decide whether or not to tender a $3MM offer.  They didn’t and he eventually landed in Los Angeles.  The decision point is much lower this time around – $1.2MM – but the same question exists thanks to his arbitration eligibility.

Statistically speaking, it was a decent season for the 26-year-old.  He had 10 goals and 13 assists in 47 games, good enough to finish sixth on the team in scoring.  Extrapolated to a full season, that’s not far off a 20-goal pace which for $1.2MM is solid value.  If it wasn’t for his ability to file for arbitration, this would be a no-brainer decision.

But he can file which makes things a lot harder.  Given the fact that he was making $3MM just a year ago and has a recent 30-goal season under his belt from the 2018-19 campaign, there’s a strong likelihood that his camp will come in with a proposed contract even higher than that.  Yes, it’s a different system from MLB in that an arbitrator doesn’t pick one number or the other but they often wind up close to the midpoint so even with the Kings coming in closer to the $1.5MM range, the midpoint where the deal would be more likely to fall might be higher than they’re comfortable going to.

As a result, this feels like a situation where there will need to be a concerted effort to get a deal done before the qualifying offer deadline.  Athanasiou did well enough to earn a bit of a raise even in this marketplace but after not garnering a lot of interest on the open market (it took until late December for him to get this deal just as training camps were starting), sticking around with Los Angeles seems like a good idea for him.

Add Top-Six Wingers

Despite their poor finish, the Kings are in good shape down the middle.  Anze Kopitar is still signed for three more years while Quinton Byfield, Alex Turcotte, Gabriel Vilardi, and Rasmus Kupari are all recent first-rounders.  That’s a nice core to build around.

They aren’t anywhere near as deep on the wings, however.  Alex Iafallo’s new four-year deal kicks in for 2021-22 so he’s one piece of the puzzle.  After that, there aren’t any long-term pieces.  Dustin Brown has had a bit of a late-career resurgence but he’s entering the final year of his contract next season and at 36, he’s not going to be around for much longer.  Adrian Kempe, a former center, is better suited on the third line than the top six.  The rest of their current roster are role players or question marks.

Some of the young centers may wind up on the wing and players like Arthur Kaliyev should be part of their future plans but that’s a short-term solution.  If they’re going to add and use that cap space this summer, they’ll need to go outside the organization.  Fortunately for Blake, there are options in free agency and with some teams needing to make cap-shedding trades this summer, there will be several upgrades available and it wouldn’t be surprising to see one or two of them in a Kings uniform next season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Cap information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: San Jose Sharks

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The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league finished up after missing the playoffs and several more joining them following their first-round eliminations.  It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at San Jose.

The Sharks were supposed to be a team that was set to contend.  That was the idea behind the Erik Karlsson trade three years ago and while they did that in 2018-19, they missed the playoffs entirely a year ago and weren’t much better this season.  Their veteran core struggled mightily and while they had a bit of cap space to add some mid-round picks at the deadline, they don’t have a lot of wiggle room to significantly shake up their core.  With that in mind, GM Doug Wilson’s checklist for the summer is somewhat restricted with seven of their eight highest-paid players having some form of trade protection.

Donato Decision

One thing the flattened salary cap did last offseason was increase the number of players that were non-tendered to avoid salary arbitration.  With the Upper Limit staying at $81.5MM, that’s likely to be the case again this summer.  San Jose has one of those players in winger Ryan Donato who is owed a $2.15MM qualifying offer in July.

The Sharks acquired the 25-year-old in October for a third-round pick, a reasonable price to pay for someone that has shown some flashes of being an impact NHL forward, albeit mixed in with some inconsistent play as well.  Unfortunately for Wilson, Donato provided more of the latter than the former, finishing up his year with six goals and 14 assists in 50 games while averaging 12:37 per game.

In a normal year, he’d be likely to get another opportunity given his previous stretches of being a productive top-six piece.  Give him a small raise and go from there.  But in this cap environment, it’s hard to envision Donato getting $2.15MM on the open market.  Bottom-six forwards were largely squeezed out a year ago and with teams as cap-strapped now as they were then, that’s not likely to change.

As a result, if San Jose wants to retain Donato, they need to try to work out a new deal before free agency opens up in late July.  Offer a cut in pay to see if he wants to stick around – that’s perfectly legal despite the qualifier that’s owed – with the understanding that if an agreement can’t be reached, he’ll be non-tendered.  It’s a bit of a heavy-handed approach but don’t be surprised if many other teams take a similar approach with some of their RFAs.

Add A Goalie

It was only a few years ago that Martin Jones looked like their long-term goalie of the future and his $5.75MM AAV through 2023-24 potentially being a bargain.  No one’s saying that now.  The 31-year-old posted a .896 SV% for the third straight season, a rate that is well below average for a backup let alone a starter.  All of a sudden, forget about the old thought of it being a bargain contract.  Now, Wilson may need to give serious consideration to buying him out.  If you’re curious as to what that would cost, the cap hit would range from $1.667MM to $2.917MM over each of the next six seasons.  That’s a steep price to pay but it would give them a bit of space to try to add a better option.

Even if they don’t buy him out, the Sharks need to add another goalie, preferably a starter instead of another reclamation project.  Josef Korenar had some good moments in his first taste of NHL action but he has another year of waiver exemption; he needs to be playing as much as possible in the minors and he’s not ready to push for full-time NHL duty just yet.  As is often the case, there are quite a few goalies available in free agency and the trade market could feature a few more options than usual.  They should be able to nab a reasonably-priced option and with the struggles they’ve had between the pipes lately, the right choice could yield a few more wins in the standings on their own.

Extension Talks For Hertl

If you were curious as to which of their eight highest-paid players doesn’t have any trade protection, it’s Tomas Hertl.   He will be entering the final year of his contract next season so when free agency begins and the calendar flips to the 2021-22 season, the 27-year-old will be eligible to sign a contract extension.

While many of the top players in San Jose underachieved offensively this season, Hertl was one of the exceptions.  He finished second on the team in scoring to Evander Kane and had he been healthy and played in all 56 games, he might have got the top spot.  Nevertheless, his 19 goals and 24 assists in 50 games was good enough for the second-highest point per game average of his career, a pretty good showing.

When Hertl signed a four-year, $22.5MM deal back in the 2018 offseason, it looked like it might be a bit high considering he had only reached the 20-goal mark twice and never had more than 46 points in a season.  Since then, however, he has certainly lived up to the deal, picking up 153 points in 170 games, well above a 46-point pace over a full regular season.

With that in mind, it’s likely that Hertl’s camp will be seeking an increase on his next contract, even with wingers taking a hit in free agency last summer in a marketplace that is likely to be more restrictive than usual for the next few years.  Wilson will have to decide if the time is right to do that or to let the season play out first.  One thing he can dangle now that he can’t next fall?  He can offer to put in trade protection into the final season of his existing contract as he’s now old enough to have that protection in his deal (only UFA-eligible players can have it).  Maybe he won’t be the only highly-paid player without that for much longer.

Redirect Cap Spending To Offense

The Sharks have been in the bottom ten in scoring in each of the last two seasons.  Part of the reason for that is that they’ve dedicated a lot of money away from the forwards.  By the time they round out their roster for next season, it’s going to be close to a 50/50 split in terms of money on forwards versus goalies and defensemen.  It’s hard to improve offensively with that much money tied up in non-forwards.

Granted, Karlsson and Brent Burns are supposed to help carry the load offensively but that simply wasn’t the case this season.  Add a slumping Marc-Edouard Vlasic to the mix and their big three on the back end counts for $26.5MM without much production from that group.  In a perfect world, they could get out of one of those contracts which all run through at least 2024-25 but their high price tags and trade protection make that extremely difficult.

One smaller move they could try to make to add some money to the pot for their forwards is to move out Radim Simek.  His four-year, $9MM contract is hardly excessive in terms of cost but he has had difficulty staying healthy and had a limited role when he did play this season.  Finding a new team for him would give Wilson a little bit more room to try to add up front which, with their veteran defenders slowly down offensively, will be needed if they want to have a chance at working their way back into playoff contention.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Cap information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Detroit Red Wings

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The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league finished up after missing the playoffs.  It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Detroit.

The rebuild continues for the Red Wings which shouldn’t come as much of a surprise with how their roster was structured coming into the season.  They’re playing the long game and have amassed a quality group of prospects that will be added to this summer with a dozen draft picks including five in the first two rounds.  GM Steve Yzerman has already checked off one major item from his checklist with the decision to retain head coach Jeff Blashill (though they will need to replace Dan Bylsma behind the bench) but he still has a lot of work to do.

Rebuild The Back End

There’s no denying that Detroit has plenty of cap and roster flexibility, especially on the back end where a grand total of two regulars are under contract for next season in Danny DeKeyser and Troy Stecher.  Of those, it’s worth noting that DeKeyser cleared waivers and would almost certainly do so again next year.  There’s a lot of work to be done here.

Filip Hronek is the top restricted free agent out of the group and very quietly led the Red Wings in scoring this season with 26 points while logging over 23 minutes a game for the second straight year.  He isn’t eligible for salary arbitration as he’s coming off his entry-level deal but that won’t stop him from landing a significant raise.  Even with a bridge deal, he should be able to at least quadruple his $714K price tag while a contract that buys out UFA years would be substantially higher and should put him ahead of DeKeyser’s AAV.  Dennis Cholowski and Gustav Lindstrom have a bit of upside but project as role players at this point.  So too are veterans Marc Staal and Alex Biega, both set to become unrestricted free agents; Hronek is the only core piece of the bunch and it’s a core that isn’t very deep.

There is definitely room for multiple additions in their top four defensively and that’s not even considering top prospect Moritz Seider who is ready to make the jump to the NHL.  Detroit has been cautious in their player development so it’s unlikely he’ll get heavy minutes right away.  It’s unlikely that they will be a prime free agent destination so Yzerman may need to do what he did a year ago with Staal and leverage their cap room – they have less than $33MM on the books for next season – to add some pieces.  A willingness to add someone with term on their deal this time around might be a better way to go than another rental.

Detroit isn’t ready to become a contender next season so this isn’t something that has to all be done this summer but bringing in another building block or two to shore things up would be a welcome step in the right direction.

Re-Sign Key RFA Wingers

There is a long list of forwards that are in need of new deals but there are two that certainly stand out among the group in wingers Tyler Bertuzzi and Jakub Vrana.  Both players are eligible for salary arbitration so if they want to avoid a hearing, they’ll be trying to work out new deals by August (assuming the players file by the deadline).

Bertuzzi’s case is going to be an intriguing one.  Coming into the season, he was coming off a career year offensively despite the pandemic-shortened 2019-20 campaign and had two straight seasons of 21 goals and at least 47 points.  The expectation coming into the year was that he’d be able to take another step forward this season.  He looked to be on his way to doing so with five goals and seven points in nine January games but those wound up being his only games.  While he initially wasn’t expected to miss the rest of the year, that eventually became the case and he underwent back surgery at the end of April.  Bertuzzi, now 26, is a year away from UFA eligibility and while his platform year ended in disappointment, he’ll still carry some leverage knowing that he can force another one-year deal and hit the open market a year from now.  He’ll be owed a qualifying offer of $3.5MM but expect Detroit to go considerably higher and try to buy out some UFA eligibility.

As for Vrana, he was the key piece coming back in the deadline deal that saw Anthony Mantha head to Washington.  While the 25-year-old underwhelmed with the Capitals, that changed following the move.  His playing time jumped by nearly three minutes a night while he produced at a point per game pace, collecting eight goals and three assists in 11 games.  That’s certainly a small sample size and no one should be expecting that to continue but it pushed his numbers to a level comparable to his career year in 2019-20 once you extrapolate for the shortened season.  His qualifying offer is actually a bit lower than his AAV based on the structure of the deal but Vrana will certainly earn more than the $3MM they’re required to offer.  He’s two years away from unrestricted free agency so the two sides could agree to a one-year pact that allows for more evaluation while keeping him RFA-eligible after that.  Alternatively, if Yzerman feels that Vrana is a top-six fixture for the foreseeable future, a long-term contract now would make sense.

Add A Starting Goalie

Goaltending has been an issue for the Red Wings for several years now.  Jimmy Howard had a good run as a starter but by the end of his playing days, he wasn’t a legitimate starter.  Jonathan Bernier has done relatively well considering the weaker team in front of him but he isn’t a number one either.  Neither is Thomas Greiss who they signed in free agency last offseason.  That allowed them to basically run a platoon of decent veterans which was fine for a season when they weren’t opting to contend but it hasn’t exactly set up them for their post-rebuild either.

Last year, it was Howard’s free agency that created an opening between the crease and this time, it’s Bernier in that situation.  He seemed like a probable candidate to move at the trade deadline but there wasn’t much of a market and he wound up staying put.  Now, Yzerman has to decide whether or not he wants to keep Bernier and run with the platoon again or look to try to bring in more of a long-term piece.  If the expectation is that they won’t be a playoff contender next year, keeping the status quo would make some sense in principle while allowing them the ability to potentially trade a rental a year from now (Greiss will be in the final year of his contract in 21-22).

However, a starting goalie isn’t something a team should be searching for on an annual basis.  At some point, a more permanent solution needs to be brought in and it’s probably not coming from their prospect pool.  It’s not a great year for proven starters in free agency but there are upgrades available there while the looking Seattle expansion could result in some more activity on the trade market than usual.  Yzerman will need to determine if this is the time to make a goalie splash or punt on the decision for another year.

Add Top-Six Forwards

The list of teams that scored fewer goals than Detroit this season begins with Anaheim and also ends with Anaheim.  With Bertuzzi, Vrana, and Dylan Larkin, they have three capable top-six forwards but the depth starts to slide after that.  Filip Zadina has some upside still and Robby Fabbri was quietly productive in limited action but they’re not ready to be top-six players on a contender just yet.

To help get them to playoff contender status, they need to bring in multiple players that can play in the top six, preferably a winger and a center.  The good news is that there are quality UFA wingers available that may require an overpayment in terms of money to bring in but they have ample cap space and can afford to overpay to maintain their prospect and draft pick capital.  The bad news is that the same can’t be said for centers.  Filling that void will require some creativity.

Last offseason, Detroit used their cap space to take on Staal and add a second-round pick for their troubles.  A similar approach could be taken here to both improve their roster as well as keep adding to their stockpile for the future.  Yzerman has built up the forward depth since taking over in Detroit and now it’s getting closer to being time to make a bigger splash.  This summer, one that should have a lot of player movement, looks like a good place to start improving on that front.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Cap information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Columbus Blue Jackets

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The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league finished up after missing the playoffs.  It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Columbus.

After eliminating Toronto in the Qualifying Round last season, there was supposed to be a bit of momentum for the Blue Jackets heading into 2020-21.  However, that was quickly derailed by a trade request from Pierre-Luc Dubois and Gustav Nyqvist being ruled out for the season before it even began.  Things basically only went downhill from there and instead of being in the mix for a playoff spot, they will be picking much higher in the draft than they wanted to.  Now two years removed from their all-in push, GM Jarmo Kekalainen and the recently re-hired John Davidson have a lot of work to do this offseason to retain and supplement their new core.

Find A New Coach

Let’s get the easy one out of the way.  Columbus has a vacancy behind the bench following the recent parting of ways between them and John Tortorella whose contract was not renewed.  (On top of that, Brad Shaw, one of their assistant coaches, won’t be back either.)

As coaching cycles tend to alternate between tougher coaches and ones viewed as more of ‘players’ coaches’, it would seem that Kekalainen would be seeking someone in the latter category.  The GM has already expressed an openness to hiring a first-time NHL head coach or someone who has held that title before so they’ll be casting a wide net.

One element Kekalainen will likely try to focus on is finding a coach who is going to play a more up-tempo system.  Columbus struggled mightily in the offensive zone this season and while part of that is simply a lack of offensive firepower, some of the better forwards they had are coming off of tough seasons.  Finding someone who can get more out of those players would certainly help their cause.

Extensions For Defensemen

While Columbus has seen their forward core get progressively weaker the past couple of years, that hasn’t been the case on the back end as their two stalwarts – Seth Jones and Zach Werenski – remain with the team.  Both of them are signed for next season already but that’s it.  As a result, they’ll be eligible to sign contract extensions once the 2021-22 calendar officially begins in July and Kekalainen will undoubtedly be looking to get new deals done with both of them.

Jones needs to be the priority of the two given his expiration status as he will be eligible for unrestricted free agency at the end of next season.  His offensive numbers have dipped the last couple of years but he still managed to put up five goals and 23 assists in 56 games while averaging more than 25 minutes a night for the third straight year.  He’s a legitimate top-pairing defenseman and will be in line for a significant raise on his current $5.4MM AAV.  At 26, he’s in the prime of his career and should be able to command a max-term contract of eight years.  He won’t come close to the highest-paid blueliners in the league but something in the $8MM range would appear to be doable.

As for Werenski, he will be a restricted free agent with another year of team control but that will already carry a premium price as his qualifying offer jumps to $7MM despite a $5MM AAV.  It’s not that the price tag is daunting at that level but if you’re Werenski, it wouldn’t be worth accepting less than that on an extension knowing that much is already locked in for 2022-23.  He is the better offensive player than Jones but isn’t as good in his own end and doesn’t play quite as much.  However, he’s also in the prime of his career and is a viable top pairing player so he should be able to command a similar price tag as Jones.

While deals in that range would represent a substantial increase in cost, it’s one that they’d be wise to pay.  That’s a strong defensive core to build around and they don’t even have $21MM in salary commitments for 2022-23; they have one of the cleanest cap situations in the league for that year.  They can afford to do it.

New Deal For Laine

The trade of Dubois to Winnipeg brought back two forwards.  One wound up finishing tied for second in team scoring while the other struggled offensively.  Patrik Laine was supposed to become the go-to scorer for the Blue Jackets but instead, it was Jack Roslovic who thrived while Laine struggled considerably.  He had just 10 goals in 45 games with his new team and while those numbers are certainly lower due to the pandemic-shortened season, it’s still worth noting that it was only an 18-goal pace over a full 82-game campaign.  For someone that had at least 30 in each of his first three NHL seasons and played at a similar pace when COVID-19 put an early end to the 2019-20 campaign, that’s a substantial drop.

From Laine’s perspective, it was also an untimely one as the 23-year-old will be a restricted free agent this summer.  This was supposed to be the year that helped him earn a long-term, lucrative contract.  But after a year like this, there will definitely be questions about how much a deal that buys out several UFA years should cost.

At a minimum, we can comfortably say it will cost at least $7.5MM.  With his bridge deal being backloaded, that’s the minimum required qualifying offer and while Laine didn’t have a season worthy of that level of production, there’s no way they’re non-tendering him.  Has he done enough to earn more than that though?  Is he willing to sign a long-term deal for that amount, even in this flat-cap market?  Is he willing to sign a long-term deal in Columbus?  (His comments at the end of the season seemed to suggest he would.)  Is Kekalainen willing to do that type of contract or would he prefer a one-year pact to see how he fits in with a new coach and a new system?

There are undoubtedly plenty of questions, certainly more than either side would have hoped for when the trade was made.  With Laine having arbitration eligibility this summer, they will have to be answered somewhere around the middle of August at the latest.

Add Impact Center

If this sounds like a familiar headline when it comes to Columbus, it’s because it is.  Unfortunately for the Blue Jackets, it’s an even bigger issue now.

Kekalainen tried to address the issue last summer when he brought in Max Domi from Montreal.  While he was coming off of a down season, he was only a year removed from a 72-point season so there was optimism that he’d be able to bounce back.  A one-two punch of Dubois and Domi wouldn’t challenge for the best in the league but there seemed to be some legitimate offensive upside there.  Except that didn’t happen.  Dubois wanted out and was eventually obliged while Domi struggled even more than a year ago, putting up the lowest per-game numbers of his career while collecting just 24 points in 54 games.  To make matters worse, he spent time on the wing as well.

Now, their one-two punch is Roslovic, a player who had mostly been a winger in the NHL before getting to Columbus and Domi.  Boone Jenner is a capable third liner while Alexandre Texier has top-six upside but hasn’t put it all together.  There’s a case to be made here that they could use two impact centers but in a free agent market where there aren’t many available, that would be tough to do.  It may have to come from a trade but another notable addition down the middle is certainly required.

Pick A Goalie

The good news is that the Blue Jackets have a good goalie tandem in Joonas Korpisalo and Elvis Merzlikins.  It’s a homegrown duo and they combine for a $6.8MM cap hit which is the league median.  They don’t even have to worry about losing one to Seattle in expansion as Merzlikins is exempt having just come off his second NHL season.

The bad news is that both goalies are set to become unrestricted free agents next summer.  Speculatively, it stands to reason that neither of them will be content with being in a platoon beyond that as both have aspirations of being a starting goalie.  Both of them have shown flashes of that already.  At some point over the next year or so, they need to pick who they want to keep.

Having said that, the in-season trade market for rental goalies has been minimal for years now.  That probably isn’t going to change next year.  Accordingly, Kekalainen’s best chance at extracting reasonable value for one of them on the trade front would be over the next couple of months before money starts to be spent in free agency.  To that end, in his end-of-season media availability with reporters including Jeff Svoboda of the Blue Jackets’ team site, Merzlikins indicated that he’s expecting an uncertain summer with it seeming unlikely that both goalies will be content with the current situation.

As a result, that pick of who is going to be their goalie of the future may have to come sooner than later and could be dependent simply on if one is willing to sign now versus preferring to wait things out.  It’s certainly shaping up to be a very busy offseason for Columbus.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Cap information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: New Jersey Devils

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The offseason has arrived for most teams that aren’t playoff-bound with a couple of others set to join them in the coming days as they play out their rescheduled games.  It’s time to examine what they need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at New Jersey.

The Devils weren’t expected to be a contender this season but this was a rough year for them.  Corey Crawford’s retirement before training camp threw a wrench into their plan between the pipes and then a harsh COVID-19 outbreak derailed some early momentum.  The end result was them selling once again at the trade deadline and remaining firmly entrenched in rebuilding mode.  At some point, GM Tom Fitzgerald will need to get things headed back in the direction of playoff contention which results in a rather large to-do list that reflects requiring improvements pretty much everywhere.

Fitzgerald Extension

Before he can really dig into any of that, however, Fitzgerald needs a contract extension.  While the interim GM tag was removed last offseason, it didn’t come with an extension so his deal is up at the end of the league calendar (the final day before free agency).  On the surface, considering he had the green light to take them through the trade deadline, it stands to reason that Fitzgerald will be the GM moving forward and discussions on a new deal have already started.  At some point in the near future though, pen will need to put to paper and at that time, presumably with a bit of contractual certainty, he will be able to continue reshaping this roster.

Add Impact Veteran Offensive Winger

The mark of a good team is often a mixture of quality young players on below-market contracts with some impact veterans mixed in with some good ones lower in the lineup.  They have a promising young core up front headed by Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier while we can add Yegor Sharangovich, Pavel Zacha, and Jesper Bratt to the mix.  Zacha turned 24 last month and he’s the elder statesman of the bunch.  Others like Michael McLeod, Nolan Foote, and Janne Kuokkanen have the potential to be more than just role players either and none of them are older than 23.  Not everyone will pan out but there’s enough for a decent foundation of young forwards to work with.

It’s fair to question if Hughes and Hischier will ultimately live up to their number one draft billing but in their defense, they’ve basically been thrown to the wolves without a lot of support.  Taylor Hall had one really good season but wasn’t lighting the lamp a ton the rest of the time.  He’s gone now.  Kyle Palmieri is a nice player and a viable top-six forward but he’s not a top piece that’s going to bring out the best in two young centermen.  He’s also gone now.  If you look at the rest of their veterans, it’s mostly a group of role players with someone like Miles Wood being a middle-six guy.  That’s not much help at all and it’s help that those two need if they’re going to be able to elevate their performance and reach their potential.

New Jersey hasn’t had much luck at all in free agency in recent years and with the year they had, it’s fair to wonder if that trend will continue.  However, at a time when a lot of teams don’t have much cap space, they have plenty of it – more than $37MM per CapFriendly – which gives them an ability to be more aggressive when hunting for additions, especially since there aren’t any overly pricey restricted free agents to deal with.  At a minimum, they need one impact winger and in a perfect world, more than that.  And if they strike out on the top free agents, they should be able to leverage that cap space on the trade front as long as they don’t accept role players as they did last fall.

Who will New Jersey’s leading scorer be next season?  The ideal answer to that question is someone that’s not currently in the organization.  It’s a lofty goal but it’s one that needs to be met.

Add A Better Backup Goalie

To Fitzgerald’s credit, he read the goaltending situation correctly last offseason.  Seeing that Mackenzie Blackwood had potential but not a lot of experience, bringing in a run of the mill backup wouldn’t have been a wise move.  Bringing Crawford in on a two-year deal to work with and push Blackwood was a wise move.  Unfortunately, his change of heart left them in a no-win situation and they were forced to rely on Scott Wedgewood and two waiver claims in Eric Comrie (later waived and reclaimed by Winnipeg) and Aaron Dell.  Those players are best utilized as third-stringers and the ensuing results weren’t pretty.

As a result, Blackwood received the lion’s share of the workload and the results were mixed.  There were times where he was stealing multiple games and others where he struggled mightily while enduring two losing streaks of at least six games.  That can’t all be laid at his feet, however, given that there were many nights when the Devils didn’t have their best lineup available due to injuries and players being in COVID-19 protocol.  There is still a reason to be optimistic that he can be their starter of the future.

However, he still could benefit from a veteran mentor that can still contribute, something that Crawford was expected to provide before he retired.  That same thought process needs to be applied here in free agency.  The good news is that veteran free agent goalies are typically available every year with varying levels of ability – starters, platoon options, clear-cut backups, and role players.  Adding someone in the platoon category would be a good target, one that can take some pressure off Blackwood.  Depending on what happens on the goalie front with Seattle, they could look to the trade market as well.  It’s not as critical of an addition as adding forwards but this is something that Fitzgerald will need to accomplish.

Bring In Multiple Defensive Upgrades

There is a reasonable foundation in place for next season on the back end.  P.K. Subban will be entering the final year of his contract, Damon Severson is a capable veteran, and Ty Smith’s first NHL season was certainly encouraging.  The depth gets pretty thin after that, however.

Will Butcher has the offensive ability to be an impact player but has struggled the last couple of years while it remains to be seen how good Jonas Siegenthaler can be.  They’ll be in the mix next season but can’t be counted on to play a significant role.  Kevin Bahl has some potential but needs more time in the minors.

Ryan Murray, Connor Carrick, and Matt Tennyson are set to become unrestricted free agents this summer, creating an opening in the top four as well as on the depth front.  At the very least, a top-four defender to replace Murray is needed but in a perfect world, another addition that can play in the fourth or fifth spot to give them some extra insurance would also be brought in.  Unlike most teams, they can afford to shop for multiple impact pieces even after adding up front.

There are a lot of vacancies to try to fill but that’s what happens when a team misses the playoffs for three straight years and eight of the last nine.  Fitzgerald may not be able to fill all of them but if New Jersey is going to get out of their current spin, they need to make several additions of note in the coming months.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Anaheim Ducks

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The offseason has arrived for most teams that aren’t playoff-bound with a couple of others set to join them in the coming days as they play out their rescheduled games.  It’s time to examine what they need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Anaheim.

Expectations were relatively low for Anaheim heading into this season.  The expectation was that the top three seeds in the Pacific Division were pretty much locks, leaving only one spot available for everyone else to fight for.  It didn’t quite go as expected with who the third seed wound up being (many would have had St. Louis there) but in the end, the rest of the teams were battling for one spot.  That is, except Anaheim as the Ducks fell out of the hunt in a hurry.  The same problems that existed a year before are in place now so GM Bob Murray has a lot to accomplish this offseason to try to get this team out of its rut.

Add Offensive Help

Let’s dive into the obvious one first.  The median goals per game average this season was 2.84 and the year before that 3.07.  Anaheim’s goals per game averages over that same stretch?  2.21 this year (dead last) and 2.56 last season (third last).  You can’t win if you can’t score and the Ducks clearly cannot score.  Their core group just isn’t good enough to produce at a high enough level.

There’s good news on the horizon if you’re looking for some reason for optimism.  Last summer, Anaheim didn’t have a lot of cap space at their disposal but that’s not the case this time around.  They have just under $59MM on the books for next year, per CapFriendly, with no high-priced free agents to re-sign (more on the one you might be thinking of in a little bit).  Even with a flat $81.5MM cap, that’s a lot of room to work with and if they’re willing to go into LTIR again, they would have even more room at their disposal as that $59MM figure includes Ryan Kesler’s $6.875MM AAV and with his playing days done, he can go back on there for next season.

The key here for Murray will be adding difference-makers.  They could use a top center, top left winger, and top right winger.  They could use upgrades on the second line as well.  That’s not to say that they’re going to fill all of those spots – they won’t – but multiple viable top-six additions are needed.  With few teams having the type of cap space that Anaheim will this summer, there should be few impediments in trying to get this done.  Expect the Ducks to be active.

Re-Sign Young Core Forwards

While I’ve been critical of their offense, there are some promising pieces of Anaheim’s core up front and the majority of them need new contracts this summer.  Included in this group are Max Comtois, Max Jones, Isac Lundestrom, Sam Steel, and Alexander Volkov.

With the exception of Volkov, the rest are drafted and developed exclusively by the Ducks and were supposed to comprise a bit part of their young core.  Comtois is on his way – he very quietly led Anaheim in scoring this season – but the other three struggled, notching no more than 12 points.

Accordingly, the majority of these deals will be bridge contracts, allowing for more evaluation as to their overall upside but perhaps more importantly, to give them as much flexibility to try and add to their roster.  Worth noting is that only Volkov has salary arbitration eligibility as well.

But Comtois’ deal will be a bit trickier.  Over his first two seasons, he was pretty quiet at the offensive end in limited action, totalling 18 points in 39 games but in a full-time role this year, that jumped to 33 points in 55 contests while averaging over 15 minutes per night.  Does he have another level to reach?  If Murray thinks so, Comtois could be a quiet candidate for a longer-term deal.  He isn’t an RFA that’s garnering a lot of attention but he’s one of the more intriguing ones of the summer.

Determine Getzlaf’s Future

Ryan Getzlaf has been a fixture in Anaheim’s lineup for 16 years and was a force on their top line for the majority of those.  Along the way, he became their captain and is now the franchise leaders in games played and goals and is within striking distance of Teemu Selanne for the lead in points (just six away from tying the record).  He has long stated his desire to stay with the Ducks to the point where he wouldn’t entertain trade options a year ago.  This season, he appeared to be more open to the idea of moving at the trade deadline but no really viable opportunities really materialized, likely in large part due to his $8.25MM AAV; even with 50% retention, that would have been tough for most teams to fit in.

It’s a guarantee that he won’t get that this summer or even come close to that number.  The 36-year-old had the worst offensive season of his career in 2020-21, notching just five goals and a dozen assists in 48 games.  The days of him being a core contributor are gone but is there a fit at something closer to the $2MM mark, a deal that’s someone comparable to the deal that long-time former linemate Corey Perry inked with Dallas a year ago?  Getzlaf is eligible for performance incentives in his deal as long as he signs a one-year contract.

But is he better off going elsewhere, especially if he has intentions of trying to get back into playoff contention?  And does Anaheim need to keep transitioning to the future by allowing Steel and Lundestrom to get some of Getzlaf’s minutes?  It’s always a tough situation when a franchise icon is nearing the end of his run.  Murray will need to determine if that time is indeed now.

Figure Out What’s Next For Manson

Josh Manson has worked his way from being a role player to a key cog on Anaheim’s back end.  While his offensive outburst in 2017-18 is looking more and more like a one-off, he still is strong in the defensive zone and gives them plenty of physicality.  Those elements made him highly sought after at the trade deadline despite an injury-riddled season.  But Murray set a very high asking price with him having another year left on his contract at a $4.1MM cap hit and nothing came to fruition.

Now he will be entering the final season of his deal and with that is the ability to work on a contract extension.  While he is a key cog for them, he’ll be hard-pressed to command a significant raise with his offensive game regressing lately.  In a flat-cap era, it’s harder to allocate significant salary dollars to players who aren’t going to do a whole lot on the scoreboard but a small increase in pay should be doable.  Something in the $4.5MM to $5MM range is something that would seem reasonable to both sides.

But what if Manson isn’t ready to do that deal this summer?  As we saw this season, cap space is much harder to free up once the season gets underway and unless the Ducks rapidly turn around their fortunes, he’ll enter the year as a highly speculative trade option.  If that is the route that it looks like they will be heading down, they might be better off moving him before free agency starts.  Anaheim’s back end has taken some hits in recent years and it seems likely that Murray will try to make a push to make sure that Manson isn’t the next one on that list.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Buffalo Sabres

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The offseason has arrived for several teams that aren’t playoff-bound with others set to join them in the coming days as they play out their rescheduled games.  With that in mind, it’s time to begin our annual offseason series, beginning with Buffalo.

Optimism was high, or at least higher than normal, heading into the season for the Sabres.  The top forward in free agency in Taylor Hall signed a one-year, $8MM deal to try to showcase himself alongside Jack Eichel while bolstering their top line in the process while Eric Staal was brought in to anchor an improved second line.  That was the plan.  What actually occurred was basically the exact opposite.  Pretty much all of their veterans struggled mightily and things wound up going worse than they had in recent years.  That saw Ralph Krueger ousted as head coach in the middle of an 18-game winless streak and while they were a bit better down the stretch, GM Kevyn Adams enters his second offseason with an awful lot on his to-do list.  Here are some of the bigger ones.

Sign A Goalie Tandem

Forget simply searching for a starting goalie which is something that has been on the radar for a while given the uncertainty of Linus Ullmark’s ability to take over the number one role.  Three years after letting Robin Lehner go, they hoped that Ullmark and veteran Carter Hutton would be able to work as a platoon.  That hasn’t gone as well as they hoped and now both netminders are set to hit the UFA market this summer.

Hutton clearly won’t be back but Ullmark’s future is somewhat murky.  They weren’t able to agree on a contract extension before the trade deadline but Adams opted to hold onto him and expressed some optimism that a deal could be reached.  But what’s the right price tag?  He had a 2.67 GAA with a .917 SV% this season which are good numbers considering the team led the league in goals allowed but he only made 20 starts.  Ullmark hasn’t made more than 37 appearances in a single NHL season.  That can’t be spun as playing time for a starter or even the strong side of a platoon.  He’s in line for a raise on the $2.6MM he made this year but top backups only make about $1MM more than that.  Is he willing to take that to stick around?

Of course, the fact that they want him to return also poses the question of what role they want him back for.  Do they think he’s an above-average backup or, despite the relative inexperience, do they view him as a starter?  The answer to that determines what type of other goalie they pursue, either a proven number one or a similar backup to try the platoon again.  (And if he doesn’t re-sign, they’ll be looking for two goalies.)

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is the presumptive goalie of the future for Buffalo and while he didn’t look out of place in a four-game stint late in the season, he’s not ready to be a backup yet let alone a starter.  That also throws a wrinkle into Adams’ planning.  If they think Luukkonen is a few years away from being their number one, do they look at a shorter-term platoon as a bridge?  And are top starters less inclined to sign there if Luukkonen is the guy down the road?

There are certainly a few factors in play but one way or another, Adams needs to sign a pair of goalies over the coming months.

Determine Eichel’s Future

Jack Eichel has been in the news plenty since Monday following his end-of-season media availability where he expressed some frustration with how things have gone both on the ice and with regards to his medical situation.  Ending comments with a desire to get healthy and play “wherever that might be” isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement of Buffalo and stings a bit harder as their captain and franchise player.

Can this be fixed?  At this point, they’re clearly hoping that they can and what happens with regards to whether he can get the surgery on his neck will certainly be part of those talks.  If not, he’s going to be in trade speculation all summer long.

Eichel has five years remaining on his contract with a $10MM AAV.  That will be difficult for teams to absorb but number one centers of his caliber rarely become available.  Cap space is hard to come by but he’s the type of player that teams will find a way to make it work to bring him in, a task that will be made more difficult by the reality that getting Buffalo to retain on that contract for the next half-decade would be extremely difficult.

Also at play here is the fact that Eichel is a year away from having full control of where he could be moved to with a full no-move clause.  The number of suitors in the 2022 offseason would be much lower as a result so if they can’t mend fences or sense that this discontent will be a lingering issue, the time to move him is this summer.  More specifically, before the start of free agency when creating cap space will become more difficult as players start signing.

While Adams is at it, similar decisions will need to be made of defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen and forward Sam Reinhart.  Both players have one year of team control remaining and didn’t exactly give glowing endorsements in their interviews either.  Are they part of the long-term plans; are they willing to sign a multi-year deal?  If not, they may have to be on the move as well.

Re-Sign Dahlin

On top of all of this, the other intended franchise pillar in defenseman Rasmus Dahlin is also in need of a new contract as he enters restricted free agency.  Like pretty much everyone for Buffalo, this season was an abject disaster.  After recording 40 points in the pandemic-shortened 2019-20 season, expectations were understandably high that he could become one of the elite offensive blueliners which would have him extremely well-positioned to get a second deal similar to Florida’s Aaron Ekblad ($7.5MM) or Ottawa’s Thomas Chabot ($8MM).  Instead, he had just 23 points in 56 games along with an eye-popping -36 rating which stood out as the low outlier on a team full of poor minus ratings.

It’s not all doom and gloom for the 2018 first-overall pick, however.  Dahlin still projects to be a key piece of Buffalo’s rebuild, even if that gets extended by moving some of their veteran players over the next few months.  One of the decisions that Adams will have to make is whether or not to pursue a long-term contract or to work out a bridge deal that allows both sides to reassess his value down the road.

One of the challenges with a long-term pact that buys out some UFA eligibility is that Dahlin’s value isn’t what it was a summer ago when he could have signed an extension.  He may still be a big part of their plans but the season he had simply cannot have bolstered his asking price.  Accordingly, is he even willing to entertain a long-term deal now where he could be leaving some money on the table if he rebounds over the next couple of seasons?

With Dahlin not being eligible for salary arbitration, this one will probably be towards the back of the pile as it can be pushed until closer to training camp if it has to.  Even so, this is a significant item on their to-do list.

Coaching Decision

On top of needing a new goalie or two, dealing with the discontent of their star and other key veterans and having to re-sign one of their pillars on the back end, Adams has to make a call on who is going to coach the team or whatever is left of it by then.  Don Granato did a relatively nice job after taking over for Krueger despite the 9-16-3 record and helped get the Sabres out of their funk.  They surprised some playoff teams down the stretch.  Was that a matter of good coaching or teams playing looser when they’re eliminated?  It’s a question that many interim coaches have to go through when they take over for a non-playoff team midseason.

There were several veteran coaches on the market already before John Tortorella and Rick Tocchet were added in recent days.  There may be others that hit the market in the coming days as well.  There will be options and Adams has said he’ll cast a wide net but they’re hardly going to be the only team on the lookout as well with Columbus and Arizona already in need of new bench bosses as well.  Patience in finding the right fit is never a bad idea but with others that will be going after the top options, they may have to move quickly if they decide that Granato isn’t the long-term solution.

Needless to say, there’s an awful lot that Buffalo will need to get done between now and the start of next season.  It’s going to be a fascinating offseason for them as a result.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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