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Offseason Checklist 2021

Offseason Checklist: Florida Panthers

at CDT | by 4 Comments

The offseason is in full flight with only two teams still standing.  We continue our series which examines what those eliminated teams need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Florida.

Expectations were relatively low for Florida heading into the season.  While GM Bill Zito made some changes, they weren’t expected to be a team that was going to contend.  However, they wound up being one point out of the Central Division lead and were only three away from tying for the league lead.  While they were ousted in the opening round by Tampa Bay, they’re still entering the summer with some momentum.  Here’s a look at what Zito should be trying to accomplish over the coming months.

Clear Out A Contract

At the end of their series against the Lightning, two of Florida’s three highest-paid players – goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky and defenseman Keith Yandle – weren’t even in uniform.  Anton Stralman, who is sixth on that list, cleared waivers during the season and had more of a limited role than usual.  That’s nearly $22MM on their books (about 30% of their payroll) either sitting on the bench or not living up to expectations.  On a team that isn’t spending to the Upper Limit already, that’s not ideal.

Bobrovsky’s $10MM AAV for the next five years is going to be difficult to move but if they’re willing to retain a sizable chunk, perhaps there’s a move to be made.  Chris Driedger is a pending UFA that they would like to keep around but as long as Bobrovsky and top prospect Spencer Knight are there, there will be better opportunities for him elsewhere.  Dealing Bobrovsky away, even at a loss in terms of taking back a contract and retaining some money, could allow them to try to keep Driedger around.

Yandle’s ironman streak remains intact at 922 games as playoff contests don’t count.  He sits 42 behind Doug Jarvis for the all-time record but that would appear to be in some jeopardy given that he wasn’t in the lineup when it mattered the most.  Both sides looked at the possibility of a change of scenery back in training camp when it looked like he’d be on the outside looking in and it may be time to revisit that.  With two years left at $6.35MM, it’s another negative-value contract but Yandle certainly can still contribute offensively as long as he’s sheltered in a lower role on the depth chart.  It’d be a swap of bad contracts but it might still be worth doing.

As for Stralman, he only has one year left at $5.5MM and he can still play in a limited role so he is probably the easiest to move of the three, relatively speaking.  A trade with max retention would be preferable to a buyout (which would cost $2.5MM in 2021-22 and $1.5MM in 2022-23) and could potentially still free up some money in the process.

As a budget team, there are already restrictions in place.  Those can’t be compounded by deadweight contracts.  It won’t be easy for Zito to accomplish but they can’t have that much money tied up in negative-value deals if they want to take a step forward.

Barkov Extension Talks

This is the biggest item on their to-do list.  Captain Aleksander Barkov is about to enter the final year of his six-year, $35.4MM contract, a deal that has been among the most team-friendly pacts around the league in recent years.  When second-line centers are getting that type of money, getting one of the best all-around pivots in the league at that price tag is quite the bargain.

That will soon change, however.  The 25-year-old is set to hit the open market next summer in the prime of his career and with it, his price tag is going to shoot up considerably.  Forget the flat salary cap and how it knocked down a lot of the UFA market back in the fall.  The top players still got paid pretty much top dollar and Barkov is very much a top player.  It’s rare that players like him actually make it to free agency so there will undoubtedly be a bidding war if he gets there.  He knows it and so does Zito.

As a result, expect Florida to put their best foot forward in the coming months to lock up their franchise player to a max-term deal at a price tag that will almost certainly hit eight figures.  We know cap space won’t be an issue since they’re not particularly close to the Upper Limit anyway but this is the type of player they need to break their budget to keep around.

The lingering question will be what do they do if they can’t agree on a contract or Barkov indicates that he’s not willing to sign, similar to what Seth Jones has done in Columbus.  It’s a scenario they certainly won’t want to think about but if it happens, Zito will have to react quickly to decide whether they should trade Barkov now or hope he changes his mind in-season.  But first things first.  Before even pondering that scenario, they’ll be extending a significant extension offer to try to keep the Selke winner around.

Add Defensive Help

The back end has been an area of concern for Florida for a while and that was highlighted even more this season.  Aaron Ekblad’s season-ending leg fracture was a huge blow down the stretch and the fact that Yandle and Stralman underachieved considerably certainly didn’t help either.  MacKenzie Weegar had a breakout year and Gustav Forsling logged nearly 20 minutes a game as a waiver claim but that was about it for positives.

The Panthers are in a spot where they could conceivably add two or three defenders this summer and it wouldn’t feel like overkill.  Deadline acquisition Brandon Montour, a pending unrestricted free agent, will need to be re-signed or replaced and at a minimum, adding a top-four piece would go a long way.

Florida landed the top player in college free agency in Matt Kiersted and he looked okay down the stretch but he’s not ready for full-time NHL duty yet; he’ll need some time in the minors.  There aren’t any other prospects that are ready to step into a regular role either so the improvement will need to come from outside the organization.

Re-Sign RFAs

Florida has a pair of intriguing restricted free agents on their roster.  Winger Anthony Duclair was a surprising non-tender by Ottawa last fall and had to wait nearly two months to land with Florida.  His qualifying offer of $1.65MM is certainly reasonable with the year he had but as was the case last October, arbitration eligibility looms large.  Back in the fall, the threshold to walk away from an award was $4,538,958 and while Duclair had a good season with 10 goals and 22 assists in 43 games, he shouldn’t come in that high.  Do they want to risk him being awarded something they’re not willing to pay and can’t walk away from?  With that uncertainty, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Zito push to try to get something done over the next month before the tender deadline hits.

The other interesting one is Sam Bennett.  With Calgary, it looked like the 25-year-old could be non-tendered over receiving a $2.55MM qualifying offer as he was unhappy and struggling.  Then came a deadline day deal to Florida and he absolutely took off, notching 15 points in 10 regular season games plus five more in five playoff contests.  That’s certainly a small sample size and it will make Bennett’s next contract a little tricky.  Was this a short-term blip or a sign of things to come now that he’s being deployed in a better situation?  Are the two sides sure enough of each other to do a long-term agreement or would a one-year contract make more sense?  At a minimum, he’s a safe bet to be qualified which wasn’t the case just a few months ago.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Pittsburgh Penguins

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The offseason has arrived for all but a few teams.  It’s now time to examine what those clubs need to accomplish over the coming months.  It’s going to be a busy summer. What is on deck for the Pittsburgh Penguins?

The Pittsburgh Penguins finished first in what was arguably the best division in the NHL this season. The East boasted the likes of the Washington Capitals, Boston Bruins, New York Islanders, and even the New York Rangers, the best team not to make the playoffs. Yet, Pittsburgh finished with 77 points for the fifth-best record in the league despite stiff competition. It seemed like Sidney Crosby and company were primed for another deep playoff run this season. Instead, it all came crashing down quickly in a first-round loss to the Islanders in which Pittsburgh could not counter New York’s smothering approach. The Penguins’ weaknesses were exposed in the postseason and must be addressed in the offseason, but the team currently lacks the flexibility to do much of anything.

Shed Salary

The Penguins cannot start adding until they do some subtracting. Pittsburgh is currently pegged to have just $3.2MM in salary cap space heading into the off-season, a projection that includes just 19 contracts. Forget improving the roster, Pittsburgh needs to create cap space just to preserve their current roster, as key restricted free agents Teddy Blueger and Zach Aston-Reese require new contract and the team will likely try to re-sign impending UFA defenseman Cody Ceci as well. Those three alone will cost well more than $3.2MM.

The Penguins could actually receive some help from the Expansion Draft – if they are lucky. Pittsburgh is likely to expose both forward Jason Zucker and defenseman Marcus Pettersson in expansion; the pair are talented players, but underperformed in 2020-21, especially relative to their substantial contracts. Either player would be a loss for the team, but the added cap space would more than make up for the departure.

If the Seattle Kraken instead grab Aston-Reese, Blueger, or Jeff Carter, the Penguins will be in trouble. Even if the pick is Zucker or Pettersson, new GM Ron Hextall will still likely work the phones in an effort to move some salary. Again, Zucker and Pettersson are both good players and the Penguins will not just give them away, but they could be had for a bargain price this summer as Pittsburgh is desperate to shed salary.

Add a Goaltender

What will the Penguins do if they can open up cap space? Hextall, a former goalie himself, has already hinted that adding a veteran netminder is a priority for Pittsburgh this offseason. It is difficult to look at the team’s postseason collapse and not attribute much of the blame to starter Tristan Jarry. The young keeper followed up a stellar 2019-20 season with a decent regular season this year, but he struggled greatly in the postseason and kept the Penguins out of several games. Backup Casey DeSmith actually outplayed Jarry this season, albeit in lesser games, but he himself is also streaky. More importantly, DeSmith is injury-prone and is not a reliable understudy to Jarry. The Penguins need a reliable veteran presence to push their young starter.

Of course, the popular prediction is going to be old friend Marc-Andre Fleury. The Vegas Golden Knights are also looking to shed salary and who better than Fleury, coming off an incredible season, to return to Pittsburgh to stabilize the net before he rides off into the sunset, retiring as Penguin. It all sounds great, but Pittsburgh taking on Fleury’s $7MM salary is an impossibility and Vegas retaining considerable salary, if any, is unlikely. A return for Fleury is probably not going to happen, but the shared history means it can’t be ruled out compeltely.

More reasonable targets include free agents  Frederik Andersen, Jonathan Bernier, James Reimer, Antti Raanta, Jaroslav Halak or Devan Dubnyk. Even a young UFA like Linus Ullmark or Chris Driedger could see Pittsburgh as a good opportunity to win a starting role and prove they can be a top option. If the Penguins are lucky, the market may actually drive down the salary requirements if there are a number of goalies interested in a great situation to win games and have an open competition in net. While free agency seems like the more viable route, trade options will be numerous and the Expansion Draft could shake up the market. Anton Khudobin stands out as an ideal trade candidate.

Improve the Bottom Six

Another area where Hextall and company have been open about their desire to improve is in their forward corps. The Penguins have no problem scoring, but their two-way play up front was a major concern this season. For Pittsburgh to take a step forward and return to postseason success, they must become harder to play against. That starts with getting better defensive play and physical engagement from their forwards. Hextall has harped on the Penguins needing to be more physical and has talked about adding size and grit this off-season, but it’s more than that. Pittsburgh was poor on the penalty kill this season, did not block shorts (particularly at forward) and their issues at the face-off dot continued through the regular season and into the playoffs. In nearly all facets of defensive play, the Penguins must improve.

With that said, retaining the likes of Blueger and Aston-Reese through expansion, getting a full season of Carter, and getting a healthy season from Brandon Tanev is already a great start to improved bottom-six play. The roster does not need a complete overhaul to improve team defense. That doesn’t mean that they can’t add another impact player though. Mark Jankowski, Evan Rodrigues, and Colton Sceviour were not the answer this season and all three are on their way out of town. The Penguins need to use what little cap space they may have left after re-signing their key free agents and adding a goalie to add another veteran difference-maker to round out the bottom-six.

Decide the Future of Malkin and Letang

What is to become of the Penguins’ long-time core? Crosby is still as good as ever and still signed for several years, but Malkin and Letang are entering the final years of their current contracts. Malkin is coming off a down year by his standards and will spend all summer rehabbing from an injury. Letang continues to show signs of slow but steady decline and is not playing up to his $7.25MM price tag. Yet, both players are still major contributors to the team and franchise icons. The new administration has vowed to stick with them, but for how long? Do they enter the season on expiring contracts and deal with the repercussions? Do they sign them to extensions this summer despite the concerns? Do they trade one? Both? There are major questions that need answering about the veteran stars. The front office does not want to hurt themselves in the short-term by moving on too soon from either one, but they also don’t want to hamstring themselves long-term by throwing out new contracts that aren’t necessarily warranted. It’s a difficult decision and one that will weigh on the team this summer.

 

 

Offseason Checklist: Edmonton Oilers

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The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league missing the playoffs and several more having since been eliminated.  It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Edmonton.

Things were looking up for the Oilers during the regular season.  Their offensive stars were carrying the load offensively, the defense was holding up despite missing Oscar Klefbom, and Mike Smith had his best season in nearly a decade.  Unfortunately for Edmonton, that all meant nothing in the playoffs as they were swept by Winnipeg.  Now GM Ken Holland enters the summer with plenty to accomplish as he looks to retain some key players and add some much-needed improvements to his roster.

Upgrade The Bottom Six

By the time Holland takes care of re-signing or replacing his notable free agents (more on them shortly), there won’t be much in the way of cap space to work with so adding a significant piece to the core is unlikely.  However, Edmonton’s bottom-six depth has been poor in recent years, largely consisting of overpaid veterans, underachieving role players, or international flyers that didn’t really pan out.

Last fall, the market showed that there were some bargains to be had in terms of adding capable veterans for close to the league minimum.  With the market basically the same as it was a year ago with many teams having limited wiggle room, those players will be in demand again so it’s a good thing the Oilers can dangle the opportunity of playing on the same team as Connor McDavid; that has to count for something.  While retaining some of the existing depth makes sense (such as the recent re-signing of Devin Shore), Holland would be wise to keep some cap and roster room available to upgrade their forward depth.

Address The Goaltending

After a strong season that hardly anyone saw coming, Smith is set to return to the UFA market in a much better situation.  Back in the fall, he was effectively Edmonton’s fallback plan with his return coming after other avenues were tried first.  Given his age (39), that certainly could happen again as Holland needs to look for a longer-term fit.  Their prospects aren’t ready to step into the number one role and probably won’t be a year from now.  Is it justifiable to bring him back knowing that they’d only be delaying addressing a problem that has been around for a while?  It all depends on whether or not recent history repeats itself.  If they can’t find a longer-term option on the free agent or trade markets, Smith’s return would go over better than it did in October but considering he has the second-best save percentage among UFA goalies, it might cost more than a $1.5MM base salary and $500K in bonuses to get something done.

In the meantime, Mikko Koskinen still has one year at $4.5MM remaining on his contract that is probably going to be best remembered for former GM Peter Chiarelli being fired two days after agreeing to that deal.  He’s coming off a tough year and while he shows flashes of being a capable goaltender, he has also been wildly inconsistent to the point where it will be difficult to rely on him.  Alex Stalock is a much more affordable backup but he didn’t play this season after developing a heart issue following a bout with COVID-19.  Can he be counted on to play at an NHL level after being off for so long?

There are several questions that need to be answered here from the starter to the backup but that’s basically par for the course in recent years.

Re-Sign Or Replace Key Veterans

Part of the reason that Edmonton has a little more than $20MM in cap space is that they have several key players that are set to hit the open market.  Those players will either need to be re-signed or replaced.

At the top of the list is Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.  The 28-year-old has spent the past 10 seasons with Edmonton and while he never turned into a star player that his first-overall draft status would suggest, he has been an important player for the Oilers throughout his tenure.  Nugent-Hopkins spent most of his career down the middle although he has spent more time on the wing in recent years in an effort to give him more playing time and he responded with career years in 2018-19 and 2019-20.  Contract talks broke off a little while back but have since resumed.  Even in this marketplace, it seems likely that Nugent-Hopkins will wind up with a price tag that is similar to the $6MM AAV he has had for the past seven years.

Meanwhile, a pair of notable blueliners are set to hit the open market as well.  Tyson Barrie’s decision to take a bit less to go to Edmonton certainly paid off as he led all NHL rearguards in scoring with 48 points in 56 games which was a nice rebound from a tough year in Toronto in 2019-20.  However, he was signed with Oscar Klefbom’s money knowing that he was out for the season.  That determination hasn’t been made yet for Klefbom for next season so if they enter free agency thinking that he will be on the books, they will be hard-pressed to afford Barrie at what should be a decent-sized raise from his $3.75MM salary this season.

The other defenseman of note is Adam Larsson.  While he never emerged as the top-pairing player Edmonton was hoping for when they moved Taylor Hall for him, the 28-year-old nonetheless has become a strong stay-at-home defender who can comfortably play on the second pairing.  His limited offense will cap his earnings upside and he may not be able to reach the $4.166MM AAV he had on this deal but it should be somewhat close.  Discussions on that front are set to resume soon.

Re-signing these three (or even two of them if they think Klefbom could return) will take up most of their remaining cap room and if they don’t return, Holland will have to act quickly to find replacements.

Buyout Decisions

If Edmonton wants to free up some extra wiggle room this summer, they have a pair of players who could be plausible buyout candidates.  Koskinen is one of them and doing so would save them $3MM in cap space for next season (while adding $1.5MM to the books for 2022-23).

The other option is winger James Neal.  The veteran had just five goals and five assists in 29 games which is hardly an optimal return on a $5.75MM cap hit.  With two years left on his contract, buying him out would have the 33-year-old on the books for four more years at $1.917MM but in the short term, it’d save them more than $3.8MM for the next two years.  They can find a replacement for considerably less than that, giving them some extra flexibility this summer.

While it would add more money to the books down the road, they also have just seven players signed beyond 2021-22 and four past 2022-23.  That can be worked around and the short-term benefits of the move will certainly be tempting for Holland.  The window to go this route starts after the Stanley Cup Final although, with expansion also on the horizon, a lot of the buyouts may come after Seattle picks their team.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Washington Capitals

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The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league missing the playoffs and several more having since been eliminated.  It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Washington.

The Capitals tied for first in the East Division this season, extending their streak of consecutive first-place finishes to six years in a row.  However, they extended another streak this year as they were eliminated in the first round for the third straight season.  The core is mostly signed for 2021-22 and flexibility will be minimal.  Accordingly, it could be a quiet offseason for Washington although GM Brian MacLellan will have a few things on his to-do list.

Re-Sign Ovechkin

Let’s get the obvious one out of the way first.  The 13-year, $124MM contract for Alex Ovechkin that seemed outlandish at the time has come to an end and both sides did well with it.  The Caps got an elite scorer for pretty much the entirety of the contract and Ovechkin is now the third-highest paid player in NHL history.  It’s time for him to move higher on the list.

The 35-year-old is eligible to hit the open market for the first time of his career next month although no one expects it to get that far.  There is mutual interest in getting a contract done while Ovechkin will be acting as his own agent in the process.  Talks were put on hold during the season and playoffs but if they haven’t got going underway already, they should soon.

The big question is how much the next deal is going to cost.  A TSN report from Frank Seravalli back in January suggested that Ovechkin was initially hoping to match Connor McDavid’s $12.5MM AAV although that was before the pandemic hit and the financial landscape is much different now than it was projected to be back then.  He’s also coming off a quiet year by his standards; while he was still productive with 24 goals and 18 assists in 45 games, it was his lowest goal and point-per-game numbers since 2011-12.  At his age, there is bound to be a decline.  Was this a blip or the start of that drop?

That makes this contract an intriguing one despite the extreme unlikelihood that he actually gets to free agency.  How many years do they want to do?  It’s worth noting that he’s 164 goals away from tying Wayne Gretzky’s all-time record and it will take four or five healthy seasons to get there.  But Ovechkin has indicated that he wants to finish his career back in the KHL so does he want to play long enough to have a shot at Gretzky’s record?  And if Washington feels that the drop off has started, do they want to commit to something that long?  Would they prefer a two or three-year deal with the idea of another shorter-term contract after that at a lower rate?  Doing so would yield a higher AAV now but take away some risk.

There are definitely some questions to answer in this case and while Ovechkin has made it clear that he wants to stay in Washington, it’s a situation that MacLellan should want to resolve sooner than later with the domino effect that will follow once it’s done.

Clear Cap Space

That domino effect is the salary cap casualty that will be required to accommodate Ovechkin’s new contract.  They have just over $72MM in commitments for next season already and Ilya Samsonov is also looking at a raise in his first trip through restricted free agency.  The cap isn’t going up and $9.5MM in cap space isn’t going to be enough to re-sign them and fill out the roster.  It’s fair to wonder if that will be enough to keep Ovechkin alone.

Some trimming needs to be done over the coming weeks but it won’t be easy.  MacLellan will understandably want to keep his core players around (and moving big-ticket deals will be difficult in this market) so the savings may need to come from the depth.  Carl Hagelin ($2.75MM), Nick Jensen ($2.5MM), and Garnet Hathaway ($1.5MM) are all still serviceable players but they are a bit pricey for the roles they fill.  Moving a couple of those for cheaper players would give them some much-needed flexibility.  But even that will be easier said than done in a market where many teams will want to free up money.  Expansion could help if they lose one there but MacLellan will have his work cut out for him here.

Protect The Goalies

Speaking of expansion, the Capitals are a team that looks like they will need to make a side deal with the Kraken.  Both Samsonov and Vitek Vanecek are eligible for selection and there is no protection scheme that allows a team to protect more than one goalie.  One of them will have to be exposed.

Samsonov is coming off a tough sophomore year but is still their goalie of the future (and present) while Vanecek had a nice rookie season and perhaps more importantly, is signed for less than the league minimum for 2021-22.  For a team that is going to be at or over the cap when Ovechkin re-signs, that’s a luxury they need to try to keep.

A side deal could push one of the pricier role players to Seattle as well which would help their cap situation as an extra benefit.  But early indications are that those agreements will carry a hefty price tag, more than what a lot of teams are willing to pay right now.  For Washington, however, this roster composition only works with a very cheap goalie tandem so even if it seems costly, it’s a price they may very well have to pay.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: St. Louis Blues

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The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league missing the playoffs and several more having since been eliminated.  It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at St. Louis.

While the Blues managed to secure the final playoff spot in the West Division, it was a bit of a tough year for them.  On paper, the roster was good enough to be a threat but it didn’t materialize into much success and they were swept by Colorado in the opening round.  With a lot of money coming off the books this summer, GM Doug Armstrong will have an opportunity to reshape his team (or keep most of it intact if he prefers that option).  Here is a look at what will be on his to-do list this summer.

Berube Decision

While we saw several teams go with a coach in the final year of their contract, that isn’t always the case as some teams want to at least get a small extension in place to avoid any potential for distraction.  Head coach Craig Berube will be in the final season of the three-year deal he signed after having the interim tag removed following their Stanley Cup victory in 2019.

Armstrong will need to decide if he’s comfortable with Berube being the head coach beyond next season and if so, they may as well try to work a deal out now.  Or, if he’s uncertain about if he is the ideal long-term fit (two first-round exits could raise some questions on that front), he will need to decide if he’s comfortable starting the season with Berube on the final year of his deal.  With several teams doing that this year, it will be easier to justify that option if Armstrong decides to wait a little longer before making that call.

Re-Sign Or Replace Schwartz

Jaden Schwartz has been a regular in St. Louis’ lineup for the better part of a decade now.  He certainly has battled injuries at times but he has five seasons of 55 or more points under his belt and is a valuable part of their top-six.  The 28-year-old is set to hit the open market for the first time this summer and his case should be one of the more interesting ones around the league.

2020-21 was not a good season at all for Schwartz.  He had just eight goals and 13 assists in 40 games this season, per-game rates that were only higher than his rookie season when he was only playing a dozen minutes a night in a limited role.  That certainly doesn’t provide a great case for a raise.  However, three of those 55-point or more campaigns came in three of the four previous years so there is definitely some track record of recent success.

A couple of years ago, Schwartz would have been in line for a long-term deal around his $5.35MM cap hit that he had this season and probably a little bit higher.  However, the UFA market was tough on most wingers last fall and with teams in a similar cap crunch now, it seems likely that this will be the case again this summer.  All of a sudden, there’s a definite possibility that Schwartz is facing a reduction in pay.

If they’re unable to come to terms on a new deal, Armstrong could pivot to someone like Mike Hoffman, another Blues UFA.  It’s unlikely they’ll be able to afford to keep both but if Schwartz decides to move on, they could have his replacement in-house already.

Dunn Deal

Vince Dunn is no stranger to trade speculation.  The 24-year-old has basically been there for a couple of years now to the point where it was well-known early in the season that he was available.  While his point total went down last season (not just due to the pandemic), he did very quietly turn things around on that front, collecting 20 points in 43 games this year, numbers that if extrapolated over an 82-game season, would have been the best of his young career.

How things got to this point is certainly a little odd.  While he isn’t the best in his own zone, he’s a strong skater and puck-mover, elements that are more important from the back end now and he even stepped into more of a top-four role this season.  On the surface, it would seem like he’s the type of player that should be a core piece, not a trade chip for basically half of his NHL career.

It also should be noted that expansion could be playing a role here.  Colton Parayko is a lock to be protected (and is someone that the Blues undoubtedly will be talking about an extension with when he’s eligible to sign one in late July) as is Torey Krug.  If they’re only protecting three, that last spot will be Dunn, Justin Faulk (who had a nice bounce-back season after a tough first year in St. Louis), and Marco Scandella.  If Armstrong would rather protect one of the latter two, it makes more sense to find a trade taker for Dunn before protection lists are due.

Even if they don’t do the trade route, there’s still work to be done for Dunn as he is once again a restricted free agent, this time with salary arbitration.  Last time, the Blues held the cards as they had limited cap space and Dunn didn’t have the ability to file for a hearing and they were able to get an affordable one-year deal out of it.  This time around, Dunn will be well-positioned for a sizable raise although it remains to be seen which team will be the one giving it to him.

Add A Veteran Goaltender

For several years, Ville Husso was viewed as the goalie of the future for the Blues and was even ahead of Jordan Binnington on the organizational depth chart at one point (which has clearly changed since then).  With Jake Allen being traded to Montreal in a cap-saving move last year, Husso finally had an opportunity to be the backup goaltender.

However, it didn’t go particularly well.  The 26-year-old posted a save percentage of just .893 with a GAA of 3.20 in 17 games this season, numbers that didn’t reach the league average on both fronts.  It’s certainly possible that he can improve – he has had some very strong seasons in the minors – but it would be risky to have him as the uncontested backup heading into next season as well.

Part of the allure in having Husso as the backup is a cap hit that will be at the league minimum next year which frees up money to spend elsewhere.  Bringing in a more proven option could cost another couple of million and with over $66MM committed already and a few notable players needing new deals, it could be a tight squeeze to manage.  If it’s one they can’t afford in their salary structure, then at least bringing in a veteran that could start in the minors but could push for playing time would be a reasonable backup plan.  It could be a small addition that goes under the radar but would still be a useful one.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: New York Rangers

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The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league missing the playoffs and several more having since been eliminated.  It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Rangers.

A year ago, it looked as if the rebuild for the Rangers was basically over or had at least been expedited.  Artemi Panarin and Jacob Trouba were added and a strong performance down the stretch provided optimism for the future before Carolina swept them in the Qualifying Round in the bubble.  Even so, there was plenty of optimism heading into the season but the results weren’t there.  The result was a house cleaning with Chris Drury taking over as GM and Gerard Gallant recently being named head coach.  While those are big items off their checklist, there is still some work to be done.

Round Out Coaching Staff

While they have Gallant in the fold, the coaching staff still needs some work.  Goalie coach Benoit Allaire was retained and, well, that’s it for the current staff.  David Oliver, Jacques Martin, and Greg Brown were also all let go when David Quinn was fired last month and will need to be replaced.  Kris Knoblauch could be a candidate to join the staff on a full-time basis; the AHL Hartford bench boss filled in for six games for Quinn this season while he was in COVID-19 protocols.

Center Decisions

New York appears to be set between the pipes for the foreseeable future.  They have several young blueliners in the pipeline, headlined by K’Andre Miller who had a strong rookie season.  They’re well-set on the wings with Panarin plus recent high first-round picks in Alexis Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko; Chris Kreider is also signed long-term.

The pipeline isn’t anywhere near as well-stocked when it comes to the center position, however.  Filip Chytil showed some progression this season but at this point, he looks more like a third-line option than a top-six piece of the future.  Brett Howden was a first-rounder back in 2016 but is going to be more of a role player than a core one.  Morgan Barron certainly has some upside but they’re certainly not ready to proclaim him as a top-six center of the future either.  It’s an area that needs to be addressed and it’s a big one.

It’s not something that necessarily has to be addressed this year but the clock is ticking.  Mika Zibanejad and Ryan Strome, their current top pivots, are both a year away from unrestricted free agency with Zibanejad looking like a candidate to land a considerable raise on his current $5.35MM AAV.  Strome, meanwhile, has 108 points in 126 games over the last two seasons.  While he has an earned reputation of being inconsistent, that’s still an impressive recent track record and if he has another year like that, he will also be looking at a raise on his $4.5MM price tag.

It seems likely that Drury will at least investigate the cost of signing Zibanejad to a long-term extension while Strome’s file may be left a little longer to see how next year starts out.  However, if they wind up landing a top-line pivot, that player is going to be expensive.  As their youngsters move past their entry-level deals, can they afford to pay Zibanejad market value to play on their second line?  It’d be a great luxury to have but in this cap environment, it might be one that they can’t afford.

In the meantime, expect the Rangers to be speculatively linked to every impact center that happens to become available (such as Buffalo’s Jack Eichel).  The supporting cast is in place and this is the one key piece they need to take another step forward.  With their group of young roster players, they will also be in a position where they could move one or two of those in a move and still be in good shape.  Of course, that’s the easy part of the equation.  Finding the impact center is the much more challenging one with that task now falling to Drury.

Re-Sign Key RFAs

There are several restricted free agents that Drury will need to re-sign but two stand out among the pack for very different reasons.

The first is goaltender Igor Shesterkin.  His entry-level contract has come to an end and he has quickly established himself as New York’s starter.  Having said that, he has all of 47 career NHL games under his belt which is less than a single season’s worth for most number ones.  That’s not a particularly large sample size and his standout KHL numbers don’t mean a whole lot in terms of impacting contract talks.

On top of that, he’s 25 and has salary arbitration eligibility.  With Shesterkin only being two years away from UFA eligibility, it’s not an ideal spot for a bridge contract; while most players coming off their first contracts have four years of team control remaining, New York has half of that.  Meanwhile, if early talks don’t go well, Shesterkin could simply file for arbitration, return as the starter, and then be a year away from being unrestricted next summer where he’ll have even more leverage in talks.  A long-term deal is almost certainly New York’s goal but it may be tricky to come by.

The other RFA of note is Pavel Buchnevich.  Over his first few years in the league, he showed some offensive flashes but struggled at times as well.  However, in 2019-20, the combination of him, Zibanejad, and Kreider broke out and Buchnevich responded with a career year with 46 points in 68 games.  He then did even better this season with 48 points in just 54 contests.  That’s top line production which is certain to be mentioned in contract talks as the 26-year-old goes through restricted free agency with arbitration eligibility for the final time.  He will undoubtedly get more than his $3.5MM qualifying offer but at the same time, are the Rangers prepared to commit to him long term or could he be deemed expendable knowing that Lafreniere and Kakko are in the wings?  The contract is one thing while who gives it to him could very well be another question altogether.

Part Ways With DeAngelo

While he was dismissed from the team early in the season, New York had to carry Anthony DeAngelo on the salary cap for the rest of the season (minus the pro-rated $1.075MM in savings after he cleared waivers and was sent to the taxi squad).  He has one year left on his contract, one that carries a $4.8MM AAV along with a $5.3MM salary.  Drury may first try to find a taker in a trade first in a swap of expiring contracts but with how cheap his buyout would be, they shouldn’t look too closely at that option.  Since DeAngelo is 25, the buyout ratio is one-third instead of two-thirds.  Accordingly, the cap charge would only be $383K next season and $883K after that.  DeAngelo turned down a contract termination at the trade deadline but it’s all but a lock that he’ll be released this summer when the buyout window opens up after the Stanley Cup Final.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Dallas Stars

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The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league missing the playoffs and several more having since been eliminated.  It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Dallas.

Just one season removed from an appearance in the Stanley Cup Final, the Stars wound up missing the playoffs altogether in 2020-21.  Injuries from their run in the bubble certainly contributed to that although they also had several veterans that underachieved.  Nevertheless, with Ben Bishop and Tyler Seguin returning next season, Dallas will be adding a pair of important pieces back to their lineup without needing to make many moves.  However, there are still some items for GM Jim Nill to accomplish this summer.

Add Scoring Winger

With Seguin, Jamie Benn, Joe Pavelski, Roope Hintz, and Radek Faksa, Dallas is pretty well set down the middle for next season.  At least one of them will have to move to the wing and while it may have seemed like it was going to be Benn, it doesn’t appear as if he will be the one doing so.

The Stars also have Alexander Radulov and Jason Robertson and on paper, it’s the makings of a pretty good offense.  However, despite the collection of talented threats, they’re typically a middle of the pack team when it comes to scoring.  And despite paying Benn and Seguin more than $19MM combined, they’re more of a score by committee type of team.

With Andrew Cogliano and Blake Comeau coming off the books, they have $5.65MM in money that could be put towards potentially adding another top-six piece on the wing that will score more than the nine goals those two veterans combined for this season.  (Some of that will also go to their top RFA who will be covered momentarily.)  That coupled with a return to health for Seguin and Radulov should be enough to push them from a team that’s a bit below average offensively to one that’s a bit above average.  That should be worth a few more wins in the standings.

Re-Sign Heiskanen

Generally, a 21-year-old defenseman that averages basically half a point per game, has positive possession stats, and logs nearly 25 minutes a night would be viewed as having a great season.  Yet for Miro Heiskanen, it almost felt like a bit of a letdown considering how dominant he was in the bubble.  By no means was it a bad season – he played quite well – but the expectations were understandably so high that he underachieved a little bit.

It will be interesting to see if that affects Heiskanen’s contract talks as he enters restricted free agency for the first time (he does not have salary arbitration eligibility).  Heading into the year, it felt like he was on a path to earn a max-term eight-year extension that bought out four UFA seasons but still gave him a shot at reaching the open market while being in the prime of his career.

That could ultimately still happen but his step back offensively poses some questions.  Was his performance in the bubble an aberration?  Was his dip this season a one-off or a sign of things to come?  From Heiskanen’s point of view, if he believes he can get back to improving on his numbers in his first couple of seasons, he may be better off waiting a year or two and opting for a bridge deal.  While it would take away some earning power when he reaches UFA eligibility, he’d certainly earn more signing a long-term deal then than he would now with this cap environment.

Meanwhile, Nill should still want to push for as long of a contract as possible.  Even with him not quite living up to the very lofty expectations, he is still undoubtedly their franchise blueliner for years to come so if the opportunity presents itself to lock him up, it’s one they need to take.

If they wind up on a short-term pact instead, they’ll have a bit more flexibility to add a short-term win now piece as well but that’s basically only if they can get something done before the UFA period as it’s harder to add closer to the start of training camp.  There is technically plenty of time to get a deal done between now and the start of next season but if they can get something done in the next six weeks, they’ll be better off for it.

Extension Talks For Klingberg

On top of working on Heiskanen’s file, the Stars will also be eligible to sign John Klingberg to an extension once the calendar flips to the 21-22 campaign in late July.  The 28-year-old has been a fixture on their back end for the past seven years and their gamble in handing him a seven-year contract after his rookie season has panned out better than they could have hoped.  Klingberg has given them plenty of production at a $4.25MM price tag which has wound up being well below market value.

He will be 30 when his next contract begins which presents Klingberg with a tough decision to make.  Locking into a long-term deal now (or next summer with the cap likely still at $81.5MM) isn’t going to give him a higher AAV than if he waits.  However, if he opted for a higher-priced, short-term contract extension, he’d then be too old to command a contract close to the maximum term when that deal came to an end.  What’s better for him, locking in long-term and potentially leaving a bit of money on the table or bank on a cap increase over the next few years and the possibility for a slightly better payday?

In terms of cap planning, it shouldn’t be an issue for Dallas as Radulov and Pavelski ($13.25MM combined) will be coming off the books at the same time.  Those veterans shouldn’t be able to command the same price tags they have now so some of the savings there will be able to go to Klingberg.  With him having another year left, this isn’t something that has to get done but Nill has already indicated he’d like to work on this file this summer.

Add Defensive Upgrades

Between Heiskanen, Klingberg, and Esa Lindell, Dallas has a strong top half defensively.  It falls off fairly quickly after that, however.  Jamie Oleksiak is set to hit the open market this summer and after hovering around the 15 minute per game mark the previous two seasons, he logged over 20 minutes a night this year.  Some of that was him stepping up but some of that was also out of necessity.  Either way, he has positioned himself to earn more than the $2.1375MM he made this season so he’ll need to be brought back or replaced.

In terms of depth, Andrej Sekera is more of a sixth option at this point while Joel Hanley should be seventh or eighth on the depth chart.  Sami Vatanen and Mark Pysyk don’t seem likely to return so this could be an opportunity for Nill to upgrade the third pairing.  If they’re unable to bring in another top-four defender, raising the floor of that third pair will be needed, especially if they want to hedge against injuries.  Thomas Harley could be in the mix at some point next year which would help but he’ll need some more time in the minors first and shouldn’t be counted on to make an immediate impact.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Philadelphia Flyers

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The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league missing the playoffs and several more having since been eliminated.  It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Philadelphia.

After making it to the second round last season, expectations were fairly high for the Flyers heading into this season.  However, while they started strong with seven wins in their first ten games, their goaltending struggled mightily as the campaign progressed and Philadelphia wound up in sixth in the East Division as a result.  GM Chuck Fletcher opted to keep the coaching staff intact but will be tasked with finding a player or two to help vault them back into playoff contention.  Here’s what will be on their offseason checklist.

Re-Sign Sanheim

Philadelphia’s list of pending restricted free agents isn’t particularly long but one of their notables is defenseman Travis Sanheim.  Following a breakout 2018-19 season, he wound up signing a bridge contract that would ideally set him up for a more lucrative one at this point in time while giving the Flyers some more certainty about what type of role he’d be able to fill.

That hasn’t exactly happened, however.  His production dipped sharply this season as he managed just three goals and a dozen assists in 55 games.  Instead of his numbers trending towards being worthy of top-pairing minutes, they went the other way.  While his possession numbers were still strong, he, like pretty much everyone else on their back end, had some adventures in his own end as well.  That’s not an ideal platform season by any stretch.

Sanheim is going to be a part of their long-term core but will he be a key player or fill more of a supporting role?  It’s hard to see that question being definitively answered now so instead of a long-term contract that buys out some UFA years, both sides may be better off with a one-year pact that keeps him RFA-eligible but gives them more time to see where he fits in.  That type of contract would come in slightly higher than his $3.25MM qualifying offer.

Giroux Extension Talks

Claude Giroux has been a fixture in Philadelphia’s lineup for the past 13 seasons and should move into second in all-time franchise scoring (behind Bobby Clarke) at some point next season.  Along the way, the captain has been shifted between center and the wing on multiple occasions and has adapted well.  While he’s not the 102-point scorer he was just a few years ago, the 33-year-old is still a fixture in their top six and has provided a good return on his eight-year, $66.2MM contract that he signed back in July of 2013.

That deal is now a year away from expiring which means that Giroux will be eligible to sign an extension once the new league calendar starts on July 28th.  It’s hard to see Giroux wanting to go elsewhere at this point but it’s also hard to see him commanding a contract that’s particularly close to his current $8.275MM AAV.  His per-game averages the past two years are the lowest they’ve been in a decade and considering he’ll be 34 when his next contract kicks in, that’s unlikely to tick up.  Giroux may very well want to make this his last contract, especially since it’s his last chance at signing without the 35-plus classification that some teams try to avoid.

If an extension can be worked out this summer, it will take away any distraction of Giroux playing in his contract year and give Fletcher some certainty about what type of cap room he’ll have in the future.  It’s not something that has to get done but it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Flyers try to work something out with their franchise fixture.

Rebuild And Re-Sign The Goalie Tandem

There were three different goalies that played for the Flyers this season.  None of them played particularly well and none of them are under contract for 2021-22.

Of the three, it’s safe to suggest that Carter Hart will still be around.  After a good showing in his rookie year in 2018-19, he followed it up with an even better performance last season which helped lead to the higher expectations heading into 2020-21.  He even did well start this season but once the calendar flipped to March, he struggled mightily, posting a save percentage of just .852 in 15 games from then until the end of the season.  As a result, he goes from being someone that looked to be a safe bet for a long-term contract that bought out some UFA years to someone that will wind up on a bridge deal to see if this year was just a blip or a sign of things to come.

It also presents a challenge for Fletcher in terms of who to partner up with Hart.  Brian Elliott has been with the Flyers for the past four seasons and outplayed Hart this year.  If all would have gone well, Hart would have done well, earned a long-term contract, and potentially allowed for Elliott to be retained.  But now, they may need someone that can legitimately push for playing time.  At 36, that’s unlikely to be Elliott and instead of spending $1.5MM for the backup spot, that amount may need to be doubled as they shop at the higher end of the UFA market.  (Alex Lyon was the other goalie to play this season and is set to become an unrestricted free agent as well.  He could be brought back or replaced with another veteran third-stringer.)

Upgrade The Back End

Let’s go back to Philadelphia’s defensive group.  Their core – Ivan Provorov, Sanheim, Philippe Myers, and Shayne Gostisbehere – all struggled relative to expectations with Gostisbehere clearing waivers at the trade deadline.  It’s still a fairly young collection of rearguards as Gostisbehere being the only one older than 25.  But it’s also a group that could use a veteran as they never really properly replaced Matt Niskanen who surprisingly retired last fall; the Erik Gustafsson signing did not work out well at all and didn’t provide the defensive stability that Niskanen did.

A better blueline leads to fewer scoring chances and fewer goals which is less stress for Hart as he looks to rebound next season.  Finding someone who is stable in the defensive zone and can play in their top four would certainly give their defense corps a significant lift.  Affording such a move could be tricky with roughly $12MM in cap room with Sanheim plus a goalie tandem needing contracts so Fletcher will have to find a way to free up some space before trying to fill this need.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Calgary Flames

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The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league missing the playoffs and several more having since been eliminated.  It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Calgary.

Expectations were fairly high for the Flames heading into the season.  They landed the top goaltender in free agency back in the fall in Jacob Markstrom while also adding Christopher Tanev to anchor a defensive pairing.  These win-now moves didn’t do much to move the needle, however.  Geoff Ward lost his head coaching job before the halfway point of the season with Darryl Sutter being brought in to turn things around but he managed the same .500 win percentage as his predecessor.  Their only playoff victory in the past six seasons was the Qualifying Round in the bubble so it appears more changes will be on the horizon.  What those changes should be highlights their summer checklist.

Add A Backup Goalie

Calgary had David Rittich backing up Markstrom for most of the season and the results weren’t particularly great although they were able to get a third-round pick from Toronto who brought him in as injury insurance for the playoffs.  Louis Domingue served as the backup after that and he’s an unrestricted free agent this summer.  That creates an opening that will need to be filled.

The good news is that there are plenty of free agents available so GM Brad Treliving shouldn’t have a hard time finding one.  The question here will be how much they want to commit to Markstrom’s understudy.  Markstrom, when healthy, has shown himself to be capable of logging heavy workloads and this season was no exception as only Connor Hellebuyck made more appearances.  If they want him to play that much over the next couple of years, they can shop at the lower end of the market and free up some cap room for other areas.  However, most teams don’t want their starter playing 60-plus games each season and if the Flames feel that way, they’ll have to shop closer to the higher end where it will cost another million or so on the AAV.

Core Decisions

The Flames have a core group up front and while they have shown flashes of strong offensive performances, it simply hasn’t been good enough.  Returning the same core that has underachieved feels like a complete non-option at this point as expecting a big internal improvement from this group probably isn’t feasible.  The question isn’t if the core will be back but rather how much of it won’t be.

The biggest uncertainty surrounds Johnny Gaudreau.  The winger is set to enter the final year of his contract and while he has expressed a willingness to sign an extension, it’s fair to speculate if Calgary may feel otherwise.  The 27-year-old didn’t have a bad year – he led the team in scoring and improved his per-game rates from 2019-20.  But he’s also not the same player he was a few years ago when he put up two seasons of better than a point-per-game average including a 99-point campaign in 2018-19.  He’s still a top-line player for now but do they want to commit a long-term contract to him?  If not, then he becomes one of the more intriguing trade candidates of the summer as letting him walk to unrestricted free agency isn’t a viable idea.

Sean Monahan has also been in trade speculation already.  He also has seen his production taper off in recent years and he had just 10 goals and 28 points this season in 50 games.  In terms of output from centers, he was third behind Elias Lindholm and Mikael Backlund.  With two years left, he’s not a rental either although they’d be selling low.  With three top-six pivots, do they look to flip one for some help on the wing?

Is one move going enough or will multiple changes be needed to shake things up?  That’s what Treliving is going to have to determine in the coming weeks and with it being harder to move money once the top free agents are off the board, he will likely need to make this decision by the end of July.

Add Offensive Help

On top of shaking up their offensive core, Calgary needs to add to it.  They’ve been in the middle of the pack defensively the last couple of seasons but have only managed to finish 20th in goals scored in each of the past two seasons.  They didn’t have a 20-goal scorer either.  The composition of their roster is better suited towards a score by committee approach but for that to work, they need to have three lines capable of scoring.  They’re not there just yet.

Yes, younger players like World Championships MVP Andrew Mangiapane and Dillon Dube are capable of improving and providing a boost from within.  But adding one more top-six forward would also go a long way towards deepening their attack.  However, with nearly $68MM in commitments to just 14 players, that doesn’t leave a lot of wiggle room for an impact addition so some cap juggling will be needed if Treliving is going to be able to add to the core.

Protect Giordano

With how well a lot of side deals in expansion went for Vegas back in 2017, some have expected there won’t be as many of those made this time around.  But Calgary looks like a team that may want to do so given their situation on the back end.

With Noah Hanifin, Rasmus Andersson, and Tanev, Calgary has three blueliners locked up for at least the next three seasons.  It then stands to reason that those will be the three that they protect from Seattle, assuming they use the standard 7/3/1 protection scheme.  However, that leaves their captain Mark Giordano on the outside looking in.

Giordano has been a fixture for the Flames for nearly 15 years aside from a brief stint in the KHL.  He’s second in franchise history in games played and third in scoring by a defenseman.  Yes, he’s nearing the end of his playing career (and has just one year left on his contract with a $6.75MM AAV) but he’s someone the Flames would undoubtedly want to keep around as long as it doesn’t cost them one of those other three protectees, even if it took away from adding up front.

While a 37-year-old on a pricey expiring contract may not seem like the best fit for an expansion franchise, he’d give Seattle some short-term stability and an intriguing trade chip so they could be inclined to take him.  Treliving will need to find a way to talk them out of potentially doing that.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Chicago Blackhawks

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The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league missing the playoffs and several more having since been eliminated.  It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Chicago.

The Blackhawks were one of the early-season surprises this season.  Despite losing Jonathan Toews for the season (the hope is that he returns next year) and a very unproven goaltending trio (which appears likely to remain next season), they were in the playoff race for most of the year before falling out late.  Considering they weren’t expected by many to be in postseason contention heading into the season, being in the race as long as they were is a small victory but GM Stan Bowman will need to take some more strides towards improving the roster for 2021-22.  On top of that, some important decisions need to be made regarding a pair of players who are on the fringes of the core.

Utilize LTIR Flexibility

While there is some uncertainly with Toews’ availability for the start of next season, there isn’t any with Brent Seabrook ($6.875MM) and Andrew Shaw ($3.9MM).  Both players have effectively retired, announcing they won’t be able to play again due to their respective injuries, a hip issue for Seabrook and lingering concussion trouble for Shaw.  This past season, they were among several Blackhawks on LTIR and Bowman will have that option once again.

On the one hand, it’s possible that both go there in the summer, giving them some room to spend in free agency but Bowman has been hesitant to go that route in the past.  Whether they do it early or closer to the start of the season though, they have the ability to add a player or two, either adding to their roster or adding a future asset or two for taking on a contract as they did with Brett Connolly near the trade deadline.  With the team having to proceed as if Toews will be available, this will likely be their biggest source of cap space this summer.

Avoid Arbitration With Zadorov

The flat salary cap has already created some restrictions on the ‘middle-class’ earners in the league and that’s likely to be the case for a while.  Accordingly, that has increased the pressure for teams to work out early contracts with some of their pending restricted free agents that have arbitration eligibility where they fear the award would be too low to walk away from but too high to fit in their salary structure.  Chicago has one of those players in defenseman Nikita Zadorov.

The 26-year-old was acquired last fall from Colorado as part of the trade that saw Brandon Saad head to the Avalanche and provided his usual brand of physical play, albeit with some shaky play at times in his own end and limited offensive upside.  However, he logged over 19 minutes a night and at 6’6, few blueliners can match his size.  The 16th pick in 2013 has shown enough flashes to warrant keeping around but only at the right price tag.  After signing a one-year, $3.2MM contract upon being acquired, that number now represents his qualifying offer.  But he also has arbitration eligibility where his 411 career NHL contests could push an award higher than Chicago is willing to pay.

There have been mutual expressions of interest in getting something done between the Blackhawks and Zadorov but this also feels like a situation where the team isn’t going to give the blueliner a chance to get it to a hearing and risk a reward that they don’t want to pay; the minimum award to qualify for walkaway rights was $4.539MM and it’s unlikely Zadorov would go above that in a hearing.  Accordingly, that makes July 26th the date to watch for as that’s the deadline to tender a qualifying offer.

Strome Decision

When the Blackhawks acquired Dylan Strome from Arizona back in 2018, he made an immediate impact and it looked like he was quickly becoming a core player for the future.  His numbers dipped in 2019-20 but he did well enough to earn a two-year, $6MM bridge contract, getting a longer look in the process.

Unfortunately, that longer look did not go well.  Strome struggled offensively, did not adjust well to playing on the wing at times, and when it mattered most down the stretch when they were trying to stay alive in the playoff hunt, he was a healthy scratch.  Forget about him being a core player for years to come.  Is he even part of the plans for next season now?

Strome feels like a viable change of scenery candidate this summer.  Toews could be back as will Kirby Dach and those two should reclaim their spots down the middle while Pius Suter held his own in his rookie season.  Knowing that Strome isn’t particularly comfortable on the wing, he could be the odd man out.  However, with a $3.6MM salary, that’s a bit pricey for someone that could be viewed as a potential reclamation project which will limit his market.  Bowman will have to decide if taking a lesser return is worth it or if they’re better off holding on to him to see if he rebounds in a contract year.

Clear Forward Logjam

One thing that Bowman has done in recent years is improve their depth up front.  He has hit on recent international additions in Suter, Dominik Kubalik, and Philipp Kurashev.  Prospects Mackenzie Entwistle (trade), Brandon Hagel, Reese Johnson, and Mike Hardman (undrafted free agent signings) have shown some upside and all saw NHL action this season.  Even if none of them turn into stars, cost-controllable depth is great to have.

But they seem to quickly be reaching the point where they may have a bit too much.  Dach will be back next year, as will Alexander Nylander.  Toews could be back.  Trade deadline acquisitions Connolly (two years remaining) and Adam Gaudette (pending RFA) should still be around.  Plus, for good measure, Henrik Borgstrom has a two-year, one-way deal while one of their top prospects Lukas Reichel just signed and could make the jump quickly.

A quick look at their depth chart yields around 20 forwards who could potentially be ready for NHL action to start next season without even factoring in who could potentially be brought in using their LTIR space.  Yes, some of those are waiver-exempt and can start in the minors and there could be injuries in training camp but on the surface, it appears as if they have some expendable depth.  With affordable NHL players being of increasing importance, Bowman may want to turn some of that depth into some future pieces in the form of draft picks or prospects to keep the system well-stocked.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

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