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Latest On New York Islanders Offseason

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It was no secret that in order to get better after last season’s disappointment, the New York Islanders needed to find a way to add scoring and get younger on the blueline. They managed to do one of those things, acquiring 22-year-old defenseman Alexander Romanov from the Montreal Canadiens in exchange for their 2022 first-round pick. However, the team was unable to, at least so far, address its lackluster offense. The Islanders had been connected to star free agents Johnny Gaudreau, who ultimately signed with the division-rival Columbus Blue Jackets, and Nazem Kadri who recently signed with the Calgary Flames.

Today on NHL Network, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman discussed the Islanders with Bill Pidto, saying that while he believes they were interested in Kadri, they were never able to create the cap space to make it work. Interestingly, the Islanders actually have the fourth most salary cap space available according to CapFriendly, with just under $11.2MM available. However, the team does need to re-sign the recently-acquired Romanov, forward Kieffer Bellows, and breakout defenseman Noah Dobson. Between those three, it could command a large portion of their space. Though it may not take all of it, it would most likely bring them below the $7MM needed to, at the very least, match the offer Kadri accepted in Calgary.

To create that space, Lou Lamoriello could have opted to try to move one, or both of, wingers Josh Bailey and Anthony Beauvillier. Though both are solid contributors on Long Island, moving their $5MM or $4.15MM cap hits, respectively, could have created the space necessary to sign a dynamic player like Kadri. Given the cost for Calgary to trade away Sean Monahan, who had just one year left at $6.375MM, the price for the Islanders to move one of their forwards may have been too steep to make it worthwhile. Another option could have been to move goaltender Semyon Varlamov, who carries a $5MM AAV, but is playing behind star netminder Ilya Sorokin. However, Lamoriello made clear his intention to keep the veteran netminder.

Also of note, Friedman added that he does believe deals with Romanov and Dobson are already done, saying he believes Dobson’s deal “is a big number.” Friedman also believes Romanov’s contract could come somewhere in the $3MM AAV range. Having the deals done, but not announced, is in keeping with Lamoriello’s previous dealings, including last summer’s rather late announcements, most notably of a Kyle Palmieri contract. Although Friedman didn’t mention Bellows as having an agreed-upon deal, it is worth noting the winger was arbitration-eligible, but neither him nor the Islanders filed. This surely doesn’t mean a deal is done, but would be a curious choice if nothing had been agreed upon (or could simply indicate very amicable talks between the two).

Tucker Poolman’s Health Status Still Uncertain

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After signing a four-year, $10MM contract with the Vancouver Canucks last offseason, defenseman Tucker Poolman was limited to just 40 games in his first campaign in British Columbia. Dealing with migraines and post-concussion symptoms throughout the season, Poolman had just three points all year and played just 17 minutes per game.

There is some optimism on Poolman’s health status, though, although it remains to be seen whether or not he’s healthy enough to play once the high-intensity training camp environment begins. His agent, Dean Grillo, noted to The Province’s Ben Kuzma that Poolman has indeed been training and skating all offseason, slowly trying to work his way back up to game readiness without inducing a recurrence of concussion symptoms.

As Kuzma notes, headaches and migraines have been a persistent issue for Poolman throughout his career, with various degrees of linkage to concussions. With other injuries such as major shoulder surgery and shot-blocking-related ailments, the 29-year-old Poolman has faced a lot of adversity in his NHL career.

If Poolman can’t return to start the season, expect Kyle Burroughs to get some more reps in the NHL as a third-pairing, defensive-minded body. Burroughs had five points in 42 games last season with Vancouver.

NHL, NHLPA Announce COVID Protocol For 2022-23

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The hockey season is approaching, meaning the league and player’s union needed to negotiate the COVID testing protocols once again. The NHL and NHLPA announced the 2022-23 protocols today, which mirror the ones that the league ended last season with.

Mainly, testing will only happen for symptomatic individuals and those crossing a border. If a positive result is returned, players must isolate for five days if asymptomatic, or up to ten days if experiencing symptoms. Symptomatic cases can exit isolation and return to the team as early as day six, if their symptoms are resolving and have tested negative on one of the league’s approved methods.

Unvaccinated players will have the same status; they are unable to cross the border to play, meaning the team is allowed to suspend them without pay for any days missed. However, if an unvaccinated or vaccinated player contracts COVID, it will be deemed a hockey-related injury and they will not forfeit any salary or other compensation.

Ominously, the league does also retain the right to postpone, reschedule, and cancel any games or events during the season if they deem it poses a material risk to players’ health or the health of others.

There is no mention of a COVID taxi squad this time around – hopefully something that is in the past for good.

Snapshots: Edvinsson, Rangers Defense, Staios

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With this year’s unusual August World Juniors, it’s not a surprise to see some of the biggest prospects skip the tournament in order to prepare for upcoming NHL training camps, and potentially NHL seasons. Still, not all have done that and a few players who are likely to play in the league next year, have opted to represent their country in the tournament. Among them are Mason McTavish, Kent Johnson, and Simon Edvinsson. The sixth-overall selection in the 2021 NHL Entry Draft to the Detroit Red Wings, Edvinsson has hopes, and a real chance, to make Detroit’s opening night roster after signing his entry-level contract back in April.

Considering the likelihood that Edvinsson will not only be at Red Wings training camp in a few short weeks but also be expected to play a full season, his first, in Hockey Town, it’s interesting to see him join Sweden at the tournament. However, as Edvinsson told Steven Ellis of The Hockey News, “I talked to Detroit about it, we had a conversation, and everything went good. I’m focused on this tournament now and after that, I’ll go back to Detroit…I’m hungry for (training camp), but right now we need to win this.” It’s not surprising to learn Edvinsson consulted the Red Wings about his decision to play, but the defenseman’s winning attitude, sacrificing himself and elongating a very important season for the sake of winning is surely encouraging to Detroit, who are hoping to develop a top pairing defenseman in Edvinsson alongside Calder Trophy winner Moritz Seider.

  • Larry Brooks of the New York Post wonders if the New York Rangers could make one more move by bringing in a low-cost left defenseman for the team’s third pair. Brooks cites Rangers head coach Gerard Gallant’s preference for size, especially among defenseman, and the current projection of Zachary Jones and Libor Hajek splitting time in that spot. Jones, listed at 5’11 and 185 pounds, doesn’t possess much in the way of size, though he is a talented young player who could see more ice time now as part of his development, having averaged just 15:05 of time-on-ice in 22 career regular season games. At 6’2 and 203 pounds, Hajek possesses some of that size, but as a healthy scratch for a whopping 60 games last season, seeing him jump to a full-time or even platoon role next year for a Rangers team looking for a Stanley Cup might be a bit of a question mark. The team has just over $1MM in available cap space with players like Danny DeKeyser, Ryan Murray, and especially the 6’6 Ben Harpur representing players that fit the bill: inexpensive left-defensemen with size.
  • One of the newest members of the Florida Panthers organization, defenseman Nathan Staios told NHL.com’s Alain Poupart that he’s going to do his best to try to make the Panthers out of training camp, but understands the likely trajectory of his development. “Wherever they want me, I’m good,” Staios said. “I’m gonna work my hardest to make the big team, but a couple years of development in the AHL, I’m totally good with that. And I’m really looking forward to that as well,” Staios added. Trusting the process with his development will be necessary for the Ontario native, just as it is any prospect, but after a slow yet steady rise in his value as a prospect, his eagerness to continue this way will be an essential part of the 21-year-old’s success. Having been undrafted by an NHL team, Staios continued to work on his game in the OHL, breaking out after a trade from the Windsor Spitfires to the Hamilton Bulldogs prior to the 2019-20 season. This season, though, vaulted Staios to legitimate prospect status, as he tallied 15 goals and 51 assists in 59 games from the blueline for a talented Hamilton squad.

Free Agent Profile: Derick Brassard

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Once again, the height of free agency has come and gone and veteran journeyman Derick Brassard finds himself without an NHL contract heading into next season. Though not an ideal situation, Brassard may not be too uncomfortable, having been in this situation each of the past few years, the team at PHR profiling the forward in this series each of the previous three offseasons as well (2019, 2020, 2021). Brassard may find himself looking for a contract late in the game for a fourth straight offseason, but given the value he brings and his ability to secure a spot each year, there is reason for optimism.

Once an important top-six piece for some talent-rich New York Rangers teams competing for Stanley Cups, Brassard’s role, and team, has changed plenty since. After being a top draft choice of the Columbus Blue Jackets, he found early success and was eventually dealt to the Rangers as the main piece for Marian Gaborik. The center thrived during his time in Manhattan, hitting a career-high 60 points in 2014-15 and a career-high 27 goals the following season. While there, he also joined the Rangers on four straight playoff runs, including a trip to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2014. As the Rangers’ run of success wound-down, they chose to move Brassard to the Ottawa Senators, ultimately bringing in Mika Zibanejad in the process.

With the end of his Rangers run, Brassard began his journey down the path of a journeyman, spending a season-and-a-half with Ottawa, followed by stops with the Pittsburgh Penguins, Colorado Avalanche, Florida Panthers, New York Islanders, Arizona Coyotes, Philadelphia Flyers, and Edmonton Oilers. Turning back to the first of those Free Agent Profiles, Brassard wound up signing a one-year, $1.2MM deal with the Islanders at the conclusion of a five-year, $25MM pact. The move paid dividends for both sides, Brassard recording 32 points in 66 regular season games for the Islanders, adding another eight points in 18 playoff games in the bubble.

At the conclusion of the season, the Islanders let Brassard go and after another slow offseason and Brassard signed with the Arizona Coyotes for one-year at $1MM, giving the rebuilding Coyotes a veteran presence in their lineup on top of 20 points in 53 games. The veteran once again had a slow offseason in the summer of 2021, but found work, this time on a one-year, $825K deal with the Philadelphia Flyers, who moved him to the Edmonton Oilers at the trade deadline. Between both teams, Brassard managed 19 points in 46 regular season games, though 16 of those points came in just 31 games as a member of the Flyers, somewhat of an impressive return to form for the 34-year-old.

Stats:

2021-22: 46 GP, 8 G, 11 A, 19 pts, +4 rating, 16 PIMs, 62 shots, 52.0 CF%, 12:55 ATOI

Career: 951 GP, 202 G, 320 A, 522 pts, -31 rating, 435 PIMs, 1,843 shots, 55.9 CF%, 15:56 ATOI

Potential Suitors:

Given Brassard’s presumably low price-tag, most NHL teams would be able to fit the veteran in, however who would be interested is another question. With his production dropping off rather steeply over the previous five years, finding any sort of significant role on a contender might be tough. After his time with the Islanders, making a run to the Conference Finals, Brassard played with Arizona in 2020-21 and the Flyers in 2021-22, both teams that struggled, but was ultimately traded to the Edmonton Oilers. Brassard played in 15 games with Edmonton down the stretch, but averaged just 9:53 of time on ice, down significantly from the 14:22 he averaged in Philadelphia and played just one playoff game during Edmonton’s run to the Western Conference Finals.

Rough as that may sound for Brassard, it doesn’t mean there isn’t an important role for him to play somewhere. In fact, he did impress during his time with the Flyers, averaging more than half a point per game with them. When he is given the opportunity to produce via ice-time, he generally does; however, it may only be a rebuilder that can give him that opportunity. What’s more is Brassard has proven to be a responsible forward who can make the right play anywhere on the ice and shift around a lineup, a player who might be a terrific fit to work alongside a team’s young players, creating and finishing opportunities with them and cleaning up mistakes they may make. That said, a return to Arizona or Philadelphia, or somewhere new like the Chicago Blackhawks, Montreal Canadiens, or Seattle Kraken may make sense.

Projected Contract:

Unfortunately for Brassard, he has seen his salary dip each of the past three seasons, coming from $3.5MM in 2018-19 (the final year of a five-year, $25MM front-loaded deal with a $5MM AAV), to $1.2MM to $1MM and finally to $825K this year. Most likely, Brassard won’t sign for more than the $825K he had last season and it could be as low as the $750K minimum salary. With his career track record and his performance this year, especially with the Flyers, it’s hard to imagine Brassard is headed for a two-way contract, but that reality is certainly possible. More likely, and perhaps most likely, is that Brassard will accept a PTO from a team and attempt to either make that team, or hope to impress enough to be released from the PTO and sign an NHL deal with a club in need of a versatile veteran forward.

Moving from city to city year in and year out, sometimes with multiple stops in a season can be incredibly stressful on a player and their family, and Brassard is likely no exception. However, this system may be the way of the future for the soon-to-be 35-year-old if he wants to stay in the NHL. On the bright side, his ability to adapt to environments and maintain his solid, responsible play is another attractive feature to his game for a front office and coaching staff.

Free Agent Profile: Paul Stastny

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When the Colorado Avalanche won the Stanley Cup this year, they did so without a player who many thought a decade ago would be a long-term franchise cornerstone. That player is Paul Stastny, who, now 36 years old, remains a free agent almost a month after the signing period opened this offseason. After falling to the second round in the 2005 NHL Draft, Stastny blew the doors off the Avalanche franchise with three out of four 70-point seasons to begin his NHL career in 2007, 2008, and 2010.

While he never replicated that offensive success, largely due to a variety of injuries, Stastny remained a capable top-six two-way center for years to come. Now a veteran of over 1,000 games, though, Stastny is coming off his second full season with the Winnipeg Jets and remains without a Stanley Cup. He may be somewhat of a forgotten name as his best seasons are behind him, but Stastny’s still managed 74 points in 127 games over the last two seasons while averaging over 17 minutes per game. It’s fair to say that while the end of the road for Stastny may be near, it’s not here yet.

Stastny’s 16-year resume with Winnipeg and Colorado in addition to time with the St. Louis Blues and Vegas Golden Knights still make him a valuable asset to teams looking to add cohesiveness in their locker room as they vie for a championship. He hasn’t been a name that’s popped up in many rumors, but he should certainly be on the radar of teams as the offseason slogs on.

Stats

2021-22: 71 GP, 21G, 24A, 45 pts, +14 rating, 14 PIMs, 141 shots, 17:47 ATOI
Career: 1072 GP, 284G, 516A, 800 pts, +50 rating, 484 PIMs, 2246 shots, 18:53 ATOI

Potential Suitors

Poetically enough, a reunion with the team that drafted him shouldn’t be out of the question. If the Avalanche can’t manage to re-sign Nazem Kadri this late in the game, they have more than enough cap space to accommodate a reasonable one-year deal for Stastny. Providing a little more offensive upside than J.T. Compher and more experience than Alex Newhook, Stastny could be a strong short-term solution to Colorado’s open spot at center on the second line.

Another team that could look to acquire Stastny to fill the same role to shelter a younger player is the Carolina Hurricanes. While Jesperi Kotkaniemi will get paid a decent chunk of change next year, he hasn’t really done much to earn that dollar value with his performance. With a team like Carolina that’s so close to winning, Stastny could be a desirable veteran backup to Sebastian Aho, and, with Carolina’s depth on the wing, he’d have a lot of offensive support. The team would likely need to shed cap to make room for him, however.

Projected Contract

Stastny is coming off a one-year $3.75MM contract with Winnipeg. With a decent performance last season, too, there will be a team out there able and willing to pay him more than the league minimum. While he likely won’t replicate that dollar value, a contract in the $1.75MM-$2.5MM range could be there for Stastny in the coming days.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Comparing The Johnny Gaudreau, Jonathan Huberdeau, And Matthew Tkachuk Contracts

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The 2022 offseason has been a particularly memorable one thus far and is still not over. When we think back to this offseason years from now, the likely storyline that will be remembered most will be the major contracts and superstar shuffling that primarily involved the Calgary Flames. In a matter of days, Calgary lost franchise cornerstone Johnny Gaudreau to the Columbus Blue Jackets in free agency, found out that their other cornerstone Matthew Tkachuk would not consider a long-term extension with them, traded Tkachuk with an extension in place to the Florida Panthers, who proceeded to send their own franchise player in Jonathan Huberdeau back to the Flames alongside star defenseman MacKenzie Weegar, with Huberdeau ultimately signing his own massive extension.

That’s enough franchise-altering transactions to last some teams a decade or two, but Calgary fit it in in under a month, and all of this before even considering the impact these all had on Columbus and Florida. With the dust finally starting to settle and only Weegar left to deal with in Calgary, the attention can begin to turn to how these players will fit in with their teams, how their teams will build around them, and of course, how these contracts will ultimately play out.

Seeing as the three star forwards have a combined zero games played on their current contracts, it feels a bit premature to judge the contracts. However, given previous history with big-money deals like this and the fascinating nature in which they all came about, seeing how they all compare to one another and what each team might be faced with is an interesting exercise. Because it’s premature, we’ll look at previous history and we’ll consider what is more probable to happen rather than what is possible to happen. In other words, it’s possible Huberdeau immediately regresses into a third-line winger, but not probable. Instead, it’s probable he’s a similar player to the one he has been with some regression in his mid-30’s.

So, on this quiet Sunday in the NHL, take some time to carefully compare and contras these different contracts, not only to each other, but those from recent NHL history.

Johnny Gaudreau

The Contract: Gaudreau signed a seven-year, $68.5MM contract on the opening day of free agency with Columbus, who was then considered a surprise dark horse for his services. The deal carries a $9.75MM cap hit, comprised of $7.75MM in base salary and a $2MM signing bonus in each year of the contract. It also comes with a no-movement clause and a modified no-trade clause in the final three years of the deal where Gaudreau can submit a list of 10 teams he is willing to be dealt to.

Reasons for Optimism: Even at just 29, Gaudreau is a seasoned veteran of the NHL who has had plenty of personal and team ups and downs throughout his career. He was fortunate to have by far the best season of his career prior to hitting the free agent market, but this wasn’t exactly a breakout season either. Gaudreau put up 115 points this season, 40 of them goals, but has had as many as 99 points in the past, 36 of those goals, in 2018-19, a season where offense wasn’t up nearly as much as it was this year.

Also worth considering is Gaudreau’s production while playing alongside players like Tkachuk, Elias Lindholm, and Andrew Mangiapane. Some may argue that players like these simply serve to enhance Gaudreau’s numbers, however he was able to balance his need for puck control along with the needs of his teammates, creating a heap of goals and assists for not only himself, but the others, Tkachuk and Lindholm hitting the back of the net 42 times apiece and Mangiapane 35 times this season. On top of this, his 90 even strength points this year serve to show Gaudreau’s impact is not simply felt when his team is in the most offensively-favorable situations, but rather when the game is at its most balanced.

Reasons for Concern: Listed at 5’9″ and 165 pounds, Gaudreau is among the smaller players in the league, though size hasn’t been an issue thus far. The primary reason Gaudreau has been as great as he has, even with his size, is his elite skating. Gaudreau has been able to utilize his speed in order to protect the puck, create plays and make space for himself and his teammates, driving much of his dynamic gameplay. The forward hasn’t taken much of a step back and doesn’t figure to for a few more seasons, however as he gets into his mid-30’s, it stands to reason that some of his speed may be lost, and though he’ll be far from slow, what impact that has on his play style, especially given his frame, could have an impact on his performance.

Another worry as far as the value of the contract is concerned is Gaudreau’s previous inconsistencies. Yes, he has played near this level of elite in the past and his “lesser” performances have still been All Star level, but with a cap hit of $9.75MM, now Gaudreau’s ability to perform at this elite level year in and year out will be a prime factor in how his contract is evaluated long-term.

Jonathan Huberdeau

The Contract: Unlike Gaudreau and Tkachuk, Huberdeau’s contract doesn’t kick in for another year. The longtime Panther forward signed an eight-year, $84MM contract that will begin in the 2023-24 season, with one year at $5.9MM remaining on his current deal. The upcoming contract carries an AAV of $10.5MM with varying signing bonuses and base salaries. In sum, Huberdeau will take home a $7MM signing bonus in the first, second, third, and sixth year, a $9.5MM signing bonus in the fourth, fifth, and seventh years, and a $5MM signing bonus in the eighth year, with the remainder to be paid in base salary, constituting an even $10.5MM per season. His deal will also provide a full no-movement clause which allows Calgary limited trade availability in the final two years, Huberdeau picking 12 teams he is willing to be traded to. Given the even spread of salary, high signing bonuses and very strong movement protection, one could consider Huberdeau immovable and buyout proof for the next nine years.

Reasons for Optimism: Huberdeau’s 115 points in 2021-22 tied him for second in the NHL alongside Gaudreau. Also like Gaudreau, 2021-22 represented somewhat of a breakout for the winger, who was already playing at an elite level, but took another step forward in his production. The former Panther averaged 1.12 points-per-game in the three seasons prior to this one, stepping up to 1.43 this season. While Calgary is surely betting on him being the player he was this year for Florida, if Huberdeau is more like the player he was in the few years prior, he will still be worth at or around his $10.5MM cap hit, meaning that the Flames do have some room for Huberdeau to take a step back from his 2021-22 without it significantly impacting the value of the deal.

Additionally, Huberdeau’s game is one of an elite passer and playmaker that can find the back of the net plenty as well. However, his game has never necessarily relied on his skating, but instead his hands, vision, and hockey IQ on top of quality skating. It stands to reason that Huberdeau, like Gaudreau and many other players, might lose a step in his mid-30’s, which would be the middle of the contract, however given that his game relies primarily on skills that are unlikely to take the same kind of step back, he should be able to maintain his level of play or something close to it for longer than might be expected.

Reasons for Concern: As discussed, Huberdeau’s contract will be near impossible for Calgary to buyout or move down the road, but that alone is not necessarily a reason to be concerned. The trouble will come if Huberdeau cannot maintain the level of play that turned him into one of the NHL’s premier forwards of the past few years. Although it would seem he could maintain that level of play a bit longer, perhaps into his mid-30’s, the contract runs through Huberdeau’s age-37 season. Even if he were to age well, there are very few recent examples of players at that age that have been worth a cap hit of around $10.5MM. Still, the issue doesn’t have to be black and white, and if Huberdeau can produce at a high level, even if not necessarily worth every penny of his cap hit in the later seasons of the deal, it may not be a bargain, but may not be a disaster either.

Matthew Tkachuk

The Contract: Tkachuk’s contract was an interesting case of a true sign-and-trade. The forward technically signed with the  Flames, who then turned and dealt him to the Panthers. Nonetheless, this was one that both Florida and Tkachuk had wanted and has no effect on the Flames outside of their return. The eight-year, $76MM contract carries a $9.5MM cap hit, the lowest of the three players compared here. The deal carries a largely front-loaded structure paid primarily through signing bonuses, each year of the contract paying just a $1MM base salary.

The first year of the contract contains no protections from movement or trades, but then contains a full no-movement clause through 2027-28. Starting in 2028-29, the final two years of the contract contain a modified no-trade clause where Tkachuk can submit a 16 team no-trade list.

Reasons for Optimism: At just 24 years old, Tkachuk’s eight-year deal carries him through his age 32 season, putting him on the UFA market a few months prior to his 33rd birthday. The main advantage to Tkachuk’s contract as compared to the other two is clearly his age, this long-term deal essentially covering his entire prime. Being able to secure one of the games better two-way forwards, a true elite point producer and perhaps the league’s best agitator all rolled into one for under $10M for his entire prime is nothing short of a major win for Florida, especially as they deal with their own salary cap issues. Even considering the cost to acquire Tkachuk, the team now has two of the games best players in Tkachuk and Aleksander Barkov signed through the 2029-30 season for under $20MM, giving them two players at a set price they can build around for the rest of the decade.

Reasons for Concern: A $9.5MM AAV for a 24-year-old coming off a 42 goal, 104 point season sounds hard to beat in today’s NHL, and it very well might be. But, say, what if that 1.27 points-per-game player actually only provided 0.88 points-per-game? This question will be the main point of concern for the Florida Panthers as they embark on this eight-year journey with Tkachuk, who averaged those 0.88 points-per-game over the three seasons prior to last. The player Tkachuk was over those three seasons, or his entire career for that matter, is no doubt an incredibly valuable asset, but for a cap-strung team, any overpayment on that player, no matter how good, could be an issue. Given his age and previous track record, it’s highly unlikely Tkachuk will be an objectively “bad” player during this contract, but living up to his AAV given he has only produced at this incredibly elite level just once, is of concern.

Not at all Tkachuk’s fault, he will have to contend with the price Florida paid to acquire him. Huberdeau, Weegar, prospect Cole Schwindt, and a first-round pick is a hefty price to pay for any player and that return package will be tied to Tkachuk and his performance as time goes on, especially with Huberdeau and Weegar both in their prime right now, and Huberdeau signed long-term in Calgary. This won’t have any bearing on the overall value of Tkachuk’s contract, but it is worth mentioning given how polarizing the trade itself is.

Other Comparables

The three contracts, all tied to one another and given in short order, will forever bond them to each other. However, since they are all their own, they will have to be evaluated that way as well, and not based on the performance of the others. Also considering that the players haven’t played a single game under their new deals, it’s hard to truly forecast them. One way to make those guesses more educated though, is to look at a few previous examples of similar contracts.

One example is New York Rangers winger Artemi Panarin, who signed a seven-year, $81.5MM contract carrying a cap hit just over $11.64MM per season. Panarin’s cap hit is over a million more per season than Huberdeau at $10.5MM but as a UFA, headed to a brand new team, is a relatable player in some form to all three. Signing Panarin gave the then-rebuilding Rangers a jumpstart, pushing them back into competitiveness quicker than many had imagined, and the winger has played up to his contract thus far. But, having taken somewhat of a step back in this year’s playoffs and on the wrong side of 30 with four years left, the reality of just how immovable Panarin is has resonated with many.

Panarin signing just prior to age 28 aligns most closely with Gaudreau, who signed just prior to turning 29, but carries with him an interesting distinction to all three here: his breakout to superstar status happened after he signed with the Rangers. After tallying a career-high 87 points in 79 games with Columbus in 2018-19, Panarin hit 95 points in just 69 games in his first season in Manhattan, taking his game to new heights. As well and good as this is, it raises the question: if Panarin took another step after signing and hasn’t taken much of a step back at age 30, what will Gaudreau, Huberdeau, and Tkachuk need to do to live up to their contracts?

Another example is John Tavares, who left the New York Islanders to sign a seven-year, $77MM deal with the Toronto Maple Leafs in July of 2018. Much like Panarin, Tavares was everything Toronto was hoping he would be when they signed him, scoring 47 goals for 88 points in his first season. However, since then, the Islanders captain turned Toronto captain hasn’t been able to repeat his success with either team, failing to be a point-per-game player since his Maple Leafs debut. Now 31, admittedly needing to work on his skating, Tavares is far from a bad player by any stretch of the imagination, but his $11MM cap hit has been the subject of almost every Maple Leafs-related contract discussion as the team is forced to make tough decisions about its depth and let some key pieces go. In effect, the Tavares example is one of the player being a great addition and player for his new team, but a big question as to whether the cap hit was worth it in the end.

A final example is Dallas Stars forward Jamie Benn, who signed an eight-year, $76MM contract extension to stay in Dallas during the summer of 2016. Signed three days ahead of his 27th birthday, the deal began in 2017-18, Benn’s age-28 season. Benn was, following a trend, every bit the player they hoped to extend the first year of the deal, putting up 79 points in 82 games, but hasn’t found that production since, finishing this season with a mere 46 points over 82 games. A relatively similar style of player to Tkachuk, Benn’s sharp regression at the age of 29 is a warning sign for any team looking to sign a long-term contract, but especially those seeking to ink a power-forward much like Benn. On the bright side for a Tkachuk comparison, even if the exact same trajectory was true for Tkachuk, an age-29 regression would only impact the final three years of his pact.

Wrapping up, it’s of course way too early to judge these contracts and in all honesty, it will be way too early to judge them halfway through (unless they’re bought out, of course). But considering the polarizing nature of all three, and the readily available examples of long-term, big-money deals, it is an interesting exercise to see what these could look like, not only compared to the league and its salary structure generally, but to one another, given that they will almost certainly be linked together for the remainder of their careers.

Snapshots: Hlinka Gretzky, Kolesar, Kadri

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The Hlinka Gretzky Cup concluded tonight with Team Canada defeating Team Sweden 4-1 to take first place and the gold medal. As impressive as a gold medal is, saying just that wouldn’t begin to tell the entire story for Canada’s 2022 Hlinka Gretzky run. For one, the team was undefeated throughout the tournament, and in the process they outscored opponents by a jaw-dropping 34-3 score. In addition to the dominant performance, the Canadians were able to show their dominance on home ice, as the tournament was hosted in Red Deer, Alberta.

Denver Barkey of the London Knights was named the most outstanding player of the gold medal game, while Oshawa Generals forward Calum Ritchie led the tournament in scoring. In net, Canada’s Scott Ratzlaff had the best performance ever by a Canadian goalie in the tournament with three or more games played, as far as goals-against average and save-percentage are concerned, says Brock Otten of McKeens Hockey (link). Otten adds that while most of the top Canadian prospects in the 2005 class held their standard, Ethan Gauthier, Colby Barlow, and Caden Price were able to elevate their game, and thus their standing as prospects (link).

  • SinBin Vegas’s Ken Boehlke discusses Keegan Kolesar’s new three-year, $1.5MM AAV contract he signed recently to avoid arbitration with the Vegas Golden Knights (link). In sum, Boehlke classifies the contract as a win-win for both sides, Vegas getting a cost-controlled fourth-liner and Kolesar getting $4.5MM guaranteed despite not scoring much at the NHL level. What is notable Boehlke says, is that Kolesar’s lack of scoring (just seven goals in 77 games last season) could correlate to his below-average 7.4% shooting percentage and if he can at the least improve his shooting percentage to league average, he could increase his goal total, making him worth a good bit more than the $1.5MM cap hit he currently holds. Even if not, Kolesar has proven himself to be a reliable grinder for the Golden Knights’ bottom-six and at $1.5MM still represents a good value deal for the normally cap-strapped organization.
  • According to Larry Brooks of the New York Post, it appears free agent forward Nazem Kadri’s asking price has not come down and the requested AAV still begins with at least a “9” (link). If that is indeed the case, it may provide a hint as to why Kadri remains unsigned, with many teams having spent up to or relatively close to the salary cap. Several teams have the room to sign Kadri, but if he is also looking to go to a team that has a real chance at a Stanley Cup, his options may be slim. Soon-to-be 32, if Kadri is able to regularly repeat his breakout 87 point performance from this season, a $9MM AAV contract would be worth it for the two-way star, but otherwise it could wind up a salary cap issue, even if he’s still a solid performer.

Free Agent Profile: Alex Galchenyuk

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Much of the chatter in hockey circles these days focuses around the games best and most eccentric players like Auston Matthews, Connor McDavid, and Nikita Kucherov. Among these storied names, few seem to be talked about as much as former number three overall pick Alex Galchenyuk. The former Canadiens forward was seen as one of the most dynamic prospects in the 2012 NHL draft, a true center with game-breaking playmaking ability, and the future of the Canadiens franchise.

Given where Galchenyuk sits now, a free agent with no contract signed almost a month into free agency, some may feel his career is winding to a close at just 28 years of age. Due to his hype, many also forget just how good Galchenyuk was in his early days with Montreal. Debuting in his first pro season, Galchenyuk had 27 points as a rookie in 48 games during the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season. Seeing as he was still only a teenager, his less-than-incredible production was easily forgiven. However, he would take some time in his development, finally breaking out in 2015-16 with a career-high 30 goals and 56 points in 82 games.

Although that breakout performance was still not at the ceiling many hoped he would reach, it was an encouraging step forward. But, those looking for more wouldn’t find it. Galchenyuk would put up 44 points in 61 games the following season and 51 points in 82 games after that. The young forward was consistent and a quality top-six forward, but still wasn’t as billed and following the 2017-18 season, he was dealt to the Arizona Coyotes, which would begin a career of bouncing around the NHL. Galchenyuk regressed to 41 points in 72 games with Arizona. Following 2018-19, Galchenyuk would spend time with the Pittsburgh Penguins, Minnesota Wild, Ottawa Senators, Toronto Maple Leafs (including time in the AHL), finally returning to Arizona for the 2021-22 season.

This past season represented something of a turnaround for Galchenyuk, playing in 60 games, all with the Coyotes. However, he still couldn’t return to his previous level of production, tallying six goals and 15 assists, four of the goals coming in a single five-game stretch in February. Now a free agent with seemingly little interest, the forward awaits an opportunity to once again prove himself.

Stats:

2021-22: 60 GP, 6G, 15A, 21pts, -11 rating, 32 PIMs, 89 shots, 13:09 ATOI

Career: 643 GP, 146G, 208A, 354pts, -77 rating, 253 PIMs, 1,266 shots, 14:52 ATOI

Potential Suitors:

Considering his likely price-tag, discussed below, Galchenyuk could find a home in any of the 32 NHL teams in theory, however where he is most likely to find a spot is presumably in one of two groups: those in the basement and those married to the cap ceiling. For those teams currently rebuilding, Galchenyuk represents something of an upgrade, and if the forward can rebound, they may be able to deal him to a contender closer to the deadline for an asset. If not, the team is rebuilding and doesn’t have to commit to him any longer than they wish. Galchenyuk could merely be a roadblock for one of that team’s prospects or young players, but for some rebuilders, they may prefer to let those players continue their development in juniors, college, the AHL, or overseas as opposed to a struggling NHL roster, Galchenyuk then becoming a reliable placeholder at the least.

The other option could be a contender up against the salary cap. With his recent struggles, it’s fair to wonder why a contender would want to give Galchenyuk a roster spot. However, this team would more likely than not need a player playing at the league minimum, and if the preference is to give that spot to a veteran who has played, and performed, at this level before, as opposed to a younger, less polished option, then Galchenyuk would be a fit.

Projected Contract:

Coming off a 21-point season as a former 30 goal scorer with seemingly little to no interest at this point in free agency, a tryout with an invitation to training camp is probably Galchenyuk’s best bet for his next contract. If he impresses in training camp, he could easily turn that tryout into an NHL contract. Another benefit to this option is that teams that may not have particular interest in Galchenyuk could invite him to camp and allow him to open eyes around the league as other teams who may not have considered him gain places on their roster due to poor performance or injury. If the veteran is able to find a guaranteed contract this offseason, it’s very unlikely it would be for anything more than the league minimum.

Given his situation, the best option for Galchenyuk would not necessarily be the best contractual option, but a situation where he could succeed and begin the process of becoming the player he was with the Canadiens several years ago. A reunion with Montreal, who are currently rebuilding and could look to add veterans to their group as their young prospects develop, is an intriguing proposition, given that is where the overwhelming majority of Galchenyuk’s NHL success has come.

Arbitration Breakdown: Lawson Crouse

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It’s likely to be a long weekend for representatives of Lawson Crouse and the Arizona Coyotes as they prepare for a Monday morning arbitration hearing to decide the forward’s next contract, or perhaps try to settle it ahead of time. A veteran of six NHL seasons, Crouse has two more seasons as a RFA and had filed for arbitration ahead of the deadline for players to elect on July 17th.

Given Crouse’s age, play style and Arizona’s cap space, one may have expected the sides to work out a long-term deal this offseason. However, as the hearing date approaches, that agreement appears less and less likely, especially as figures have been exchanged. With another year of control which will require another contract given that both sides asked for a one-year deal in arbitration, Arizona should have another chance at keeping the forward long-term, while Crouse will have a chance to repeat on his strong 2021-22 and command an even higher salary.

Filings:

Team: $2.5MM

Player: $4.00MM

Midpoint: $3.25MM

(per Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman)

The Numbers:

Listed at 6’4″ and 220 pounds, Crouse is a large power-forward willing to hit anyone in sight and can chip in offensively. The 25-year-old arguably hasn’t hit the ceiling projected for him when the Florida Panthers selected him 11th overall in 2015, however he has made a name for himself in the league, filling his role, one that is usually in high-demand, quite well. Barely more than a year after Florida selected Crouse, they dealt him to the Coyotes along with the contract of Dave Bolland, and he was given an opportunity to slot right into Arizona’s lineup.

Crouse would get into 72 games as a rookie in 2016-17, but struggled to just 12 points in that time. The following year he would appear in only 11 NHL games, spending the rest of the season in the AHL. Since returning to a full-time NHL role in 2018-19, Crouse has been a steady presence in the Coyotes lineup, but had struggled to find his place on the offensive side of the puck. 2018-19 saw Crouse record 25 points in 81 games, repeating that number in a notably fewer 66 games in 2019-20, a season COVID-19 cut short. Unfortunately, the winger took a step back in 2020-21, recording just 13 points in 51 games.

Heading into his prime years and towards opportunities to make big money, Crouse not only needed a bounce-back season, but needed a bit of a breakout in 2021-22 and got just that. In 65 games, Crouse hit career-highs in goals with 20 and assists with 14 (the second time he’s done so) and even found himself part of trade deadline speculation. The performance didn’t cement him as one of the league’s best, but it didn’t need to. As a grinder, a heavy hitter, and someone who plays the game the right way, Crouse was able to show he could contribute offensively on top of that. In a hearing, an arbitrator will look at the bulk of a player’s production over the years, considering consistency and growth, but no season is more important to consider than the platform year. For his career, Crouse has shown consistency and some growth ahead of his poor 2020-21, but again showed that growth heading into his platform year, the best he’s had to date.

2021-22 Stats: 65 GP, 20 G, 14 A, 34 pts, 52 PIMs, 131 shots, 181 hits, 17:26 ATOI

Career Stats: 346 GP, 56 G, 54 A, 110 pts, 253 PIMs, 538, 1,014 hits, 13:50 ATOI

Potential Comparables:

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used.  The contracts below fit within those parameters.  

Andrew Copp (Winnipeg Jets) – Copp and the Jets avoided arbitration last summer with a one-year, $3.64MM contract that carried the forward through to unrestricted free agency. Having agreed to the contract two weeks prior to the hearing date, neither side exchanged figures for the arbitration. Copp’s 2021-22 salary comes in just about halfway between the midpoint and the player filing in Crouse’s case, meaning that Crouse’s representatives would have to show that he, right now, is somewhat better than Copp was last summer. Much like Crouse, Copp had made a career as a hard-working, physical forward who could chip in point totals somewhere in the upper-20’s, but not much more. Also like Crouse, Copp had an offensive breakout in his platform year, though his 39 points in 55 games was notably stronger than Crouse’s 34 in 65 games. While he fits nicely within the filing numbers in the instant case, the former Jets forward may not be an ideal comparison for either side, as Crouse would find it difficult to show he’s any better than Copp was, but Arizona would have a tough time showing that Crouse is so far behind Copp that he warrants a salary $1.14MM less than Copp.

Tyler Bertuzzi (Detroit Red Wings): We take another step back in time, now to 2020, for the rest of our comparables. That year, Bertuzzi and Detroit went to arbitration, where Bertuzzi was awarded $3.5MM. That number was closer to Detroit’s $3.15MM filing number as compared to Bertuzzi’s $4.25MM, but represented something closer to a split for both sides. Bertuzzi had come off of a 48 point season, featuring 21 goals and 27 assists in 71 games, better than Crouse’s 20 goals and 14 assist platform year. What’s more is that this wasn’t a breakout for Bertuzzi like it was for Crouse, having his 47 points in 73 games the year prior, and a similarly-paced 24 points in 48 games before that. This comparison would likely work best for Arizona in the instant hearing, considering Bertuzzi had exceeded Crouse’s breakout season in his platform year, already a repeat of the year prior, and was only awarded $3.5MM. If a player with production considerably better than Crouse, for a longer stretch, is only worth $3.5MM, then it stands to reason that Crouse would not be worth more than $3.5MM, or anywhere near that amount, Arizona may argue.

Connor Brown (Ottawa Senators): Also during the 2020 offseason, Brown and Ottawa settled their case, agreeing to a three-year, $3.6MM AAV deal. Entering that offseason, Brown was coming off a career remarkably similar to Crouse, having been reliable for some offensive production with point production hovering just over the 30-points-per-82-games level, and fresh off a bounce-back season after a rough year prior. Brown had 43 points in 71 games in his platform year, a significant step-up from just 29 points in 82 games the year before. Even though this $3.6MM is below Crouse’s filing, it’s above the midpoint and as a three-year deal, shows Ottawa’s confidence in Brown after his up-and-down trajectory. Crouse may argue that the long-term commitment shows confidence on this trajectory, one remarkably similar to his. He could also show that in addition to similar offensive production, he unlike Brown, adds an additional element as a hard-hitting power forward, which is production in its own right.

Jake Virtanen (Vancouver Canucks): A final comparison from 2020, and a strong one for the Coyotes is Virtanen, who settled with Vancouver on a two-year, $2.55MM AAV contract. This deal is just barely over the Coyotes’ filing number, and Virtanen’s trajectory heading into arbitration is incredibly similar to that of Crouse. After a somewhat pedestrian rookie season, both players spent a majority of their second year in the AHL, but returned with a bit more production, remaining consistent over the next two seasons. The season after would then be Virtanen’s platform year, where he took a step forward, recording 18 goals and 18 assists in 69 games. Crouse on the other hand would regress before his 20 goal and 14 assist platform year. With similar production for their career, Crouse recording 110 points in 346 gams entering arbitration and Virtanen 95 points in 279 games before the above contract, the only difference is that Crouse took a step back at one point, Virtanen did not. Arizona would likely argue that the two players had almost the same career, except Crouse regressed two years before arbitration, while Virtanen did not, thus why Arizona filed just slightly below what Virtanen and Vancouver agreed upon.

Projection:

Given the comparable players, Crouse may find it difficult to be awarded at his filing number. However, the relevant comparables outside of Virtanen show that Crouse is most likely worth around or above the midpoint. The forward had his best season in his platform year and hit somewhat of a milestone marker with 20 goals. His ability to play a physical game supplement’s his offense as well, helping to drive up his value.

On the other hand, Crouse’s 2020-21 was unimpressive at best and serves to show that some inconsistency may be present in the winger’s game, and even though Copp, Bertuzzi, and Brown show Crouse should be above the midpoint, Virtanen casts doubt on that assumption, even if his contract isn’t dispositive.

What Crouse’s next salary winds up being is a question most likely reserved for arbitration at this point, however the more important question for the rebuilding Coyotes will be how one of their young building-blocks can continue to develop and whether they can secure him long-term.

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