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Morning Notes: Rangers, Memorial Cup, Cozens

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Montreal Canadiens general manager Kent Hughes was clear today that he’s open for business and just before he spoke to the media, Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic tweeted out an interesting thought. LeBrun connected the Canadiens with the New York Rangers, suggesting that Montreal “covets” some Rangers prospects and would rather add those than more draft picks.

It’s easy to understand why the Montreal front office could be interested in some of New York’s prospects, given Jeff Gorton was the one who drafted or acquired most of them, before being dismissed a little under a year ago. The Canadiens are also in discussions with former Rangers director of European scouting Nick Bobrov, according to Eric Engels of Sportsnet, who would also have familiarity with many of the team’s young players.

  • The Memorial Cup has new dates after disruptions to the league schedules forced it to be pushed back. The event, which pits the OHL, WHL, and QMJHL champions and a host team against each other, will be held between June 20-29 this year. The Saint John Seadogs will be the host, and will open things up with a game against the OHL champion on the first day. Notably, this will likely be the last big scouting event before the 2022 NHL Draft, which is scheduled for July 7 in Montreal.
  • Dylan Cozens has escaped a suspension but owes the league $2,235.42 for his cross-check on Brock Nelson last night. The young Buffalo Sabres forward will now have a fine on his supplementary discipline record, meaning any future incidents will be looked at with even more scrutiny. Cozens followed Nelson up the ice to deliver the cross-check from behind after it appeared as though the Islanders’ player got his stick between Cozens’ legs and earned a two-minute minor on the play.

Kaapo Kakko Out Another Month With Upper-Body Injury

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The New York Rangers will be without young forward Kaapo Kakko for another month according to head coach Gerard Gallant, who spoke to reporters including Dan Rosen of NHL.com. He hasn’t played since January 21, missing the last several games before the break with the upper-body injury that’s keeping him out.

While he still hasn’t reached the level of offense that many expected from a second-overall pick, Kakko has been an excellent defensive presence for the Rangers this season. His average ice time is up to 16 minutes a night with outstanding possession numbers, and though he still isn’t a regular on the penalty kill, he’s at least seen some time shorthanded.

Unfortunately, he won’t get a chance to try and raise that offensive presence for a while. In 37 games he has 14 points, just seven shy of the 23 he had as a rookie. A month would take him out for another dozen games, after which he’d need to find his footing once again.

The team recalled Morgan Barron this morning but he may not be in the lineup for long. The 23-year-old has one point in nine games, playing fewer than ten minutes in five of his appearances, and could soon be replaced by Filip Chytil, who could return against the Boston Bruins when the Rangers come back from their long break next week.

Rangers Have An Opportunity To Strike Early In Trade Market

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The concept of the time value of money is a very common one in investing.  Your money is worth a certain amount today but ideally grows over time.  A similar philosophy applies in the NHL when it comes to cap space – $1MM at the start of the season can be worth around $4MM at the trade deadline so teams wisely try to save what they have, hope for minimal injuries, and that would put them in a position to add a useful piece or two for the stretch run.

The end result of such a philosophy is a trade market that has basically resembled that of Major League Baseball since the start of December, notwithstanding a couple of minor AHL swaps last week.  (If you don’t follow MLB, they’ve been in a lockout since then with no trades allowed.)  For the most part, that’s probably not going to change over the next few weeks as many contenders have cap space ranging from none to minimal with a hope that between now and the deadline, it could improve to a level that could be considered as slightly better than nothing.  Such is life in a league where half the teams are technically over the cap and are using LTIR to get into compliance.

That provides an opportunity for a contender that’s fortunate to have cap space to make a move now to get a leg up on their competition.  Only one such team in the top seven in the NHL standings heading into Monday’s games is in that situation and that’s the New York Rangers.

So far, they’ve been linked to many different players with former Ranger J.T. Miller being the headliner.  Some of the others are on expiring contracts and there needs to at least be a mixture as new contracts for Mika Zibanejad and Adam Fox add $11.725MM to next season’s payroll compared to what they’re making now.  With nearly $71MM in commitments to 16 players per CapFriendly, there is some room for a longer-term addition but some of their pickups will need to be rentals as well.

Right now, they’re pegged to finish the season with $7.056MM in cap space, an amount that’s equivalent to $17.2MM today and $35.2M at the trade deadline.  Yes, they have some bonuses to factor in but the struggles of Alexis Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko limit that somewhat.  Fox will reach his $850K but his bonuses should be the only ones of any sort of consequence.  So if you’re working backward, New York needs to have at least $850K in room at the end of the season.  Even if you add a few hundred thousand as a safety net for some of their other youngsters and factor in that they’re just carrying the minimum-sized roster due to the All-Star break, we’re only looking at holding back around 15-20% of their end-of-season cap room and a few million off the present value of contracts they can acquire right now.

That means that New York could add comfortably more than $10MM in salaries today to their roster.  That’s enough to add an impact player up front and some depth in the bottom six which is an area of concern for the Rangers at the moment with even perhaps having enough left over to shore up their back end.  There’s a reasonable chance that will be about all of the spending they’re going to do between now and the deadline; no one should be expecting GM Chris Drury to bring in five or six new players between now and March 21st.  That would be asking a lot of any team.

In that sense, there isn’t much of a need for them to wait.  While many contenders will have to wait until more time elapses resulting in less salary to take on, the Rangers can go after their targets aggressively now.  Waiting until closer to the deadline will bring in more contenders for their desired players which could drive the price tag higher.  With that in mind, there’s a case to make that paying a little more now to get the player is worth doing, ensuring they get their targets and getting several weeks of extra games out of them in the process.

Patience is often a good characteristic but for New York, the time may be right to be aggressive and strike early on the trade front.  With their cap situation, they’ll be a team to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.

Trade Rumors: Canucks, Tippett, Mrazek, Ducks

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Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman and Jeff Marek didn’t hold back on their reporting late this evening on “Hockey Night in Canada”. The duo behind “32 Thoughts” had plenty to contribute, starting with Friedman’s report on the Vancouver Canucks. With the Vancouver front office finally coming together, with Patrik Allvin being named GM of Jim Rutherford’s new-look front office, the Canucks are starting to get busy in trade talks. Although the .500 club is still in the Western Conference wild card race, the reality is that any true playoff success for Vancouver lies in the future. It should come as no surprise then that the Canucks are listening to trade offers – and not just for talked-about target J.T. Miller. Friedman reports that nearly any Vancouver forward could be had for the right price outside of captain Bo Horvat and young star Elias Pettersson. That includes Conor Garland, who the team just acquired themselves this past summer and signed to a reasonable five-year, $24.75MM deal. It is believed that the Boston Bruins, Calgary Flames, New Jersey Devils, and New York Rangers are in pursuit of Garland, though there is likely no shortage of interest in the skilled forward, who has 102 points in 155 games dating back to the start of the 2019-20 season.

  • The Florida Panthers are one of the biggest surprises of the season, currently leading the top-heavy Atlantic Division with a .744 points percentage that is also third-best in the NHL. The Panthers are expected to go all-in on a Stanley Cup run this season and specifically are hoping to land a legitimate top-four defenseman. As they go about working the phones, Marek reports that one major name they are dangling is Owen Tippett. The 2017 first-rounder still has yet to make his mark in the NHL, struggling to find enough consistency at the top level to stick in the Florida lineup. However, he is only 22 and still a well-regarded as well as well-liked prospect. Tippett will likely end up as the centerpiece to any big trade the Panthers make this season.
  • With Jack Campbell playing at an elite level this season while Petr Mrazek has struggled with injuries and inconsistency, the latter has proven to be little more than a pricey backup for the Toronto Maple Leafs this season while the former will be the team’s offseason priority as an impending free agent. As a result, teams have begun to inquire about Mrazek’s availability. If Campbell does stay in Toronto, the team will have a proven starter and have some promising young options like Joseph Woll and Ian Scott behind him. Marek also adds that the Maple Leafs are in hot pursuit of undrafted OHL standout Mack Guzda, who would further boost the depth chart if Toronto can win a heated race for his services. This hypothetically makes Mrazek and his $3.8MM cap hit expendable, even though he just signed with Toronto this past summer. However, for now the Leafs are maintaining that Mrazek remains a part of their plans. Marek was not so sure about that, but does report that any decision on a Mrazek trade will have to wait for the offseason.
  • Among the other suitors for Guzda are the Ducks, Hurricanes, Islanders, Rangers, Penguins, and Predators. (Notably, Guzda is a Tennessee native.) One of those teams is about to get much more serious in their pursuit, as well as in the trade market. Friedman notes that Anaheim is closing in on naming a general manager. While there are still several names in contention, he believes that Pat Verbeek is the odds-on favorite. Once a permanent GM is named, the Ducks will become a fascinating team to watch; they are both well within the thick of the Western Conference playoff race, yet also possess numerous high-value rentals.

Adam Fox Placed On Injured Reserve

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It hasn’t been a great few days for All-Star representatives, as Drake Batherson suffered a high-ankle sprain, Nathan MacKinnon suffered a facial fracture and now Adam Fox has been moved to injured reserve with an upper-body injury.

Fox left last night’s game and was considered day-to-day, but will miss at least the last three New York Rangers games before the All-Star break with his IR designation. Whether he can take part in the festivities is unclear, though it seems unlikely he’ll be on the ice for the game itself given this new injury.

The Rangers, meanwhile, have recalled both Tim Gettinger and Nils Lundkvist to the active roster, sending Morgan Barron to the taxi squad to make room. Lundkvist would potentially represent a replacement for Fox in the lineup, though it is hard to fill the skates of the reigning Norris Trophy winner.

In 44 games this season, Fox has already matched his previous career-high of 47 points including 16 in his last 12 matches. He averages more than 24 minutes a night, plays both the powerplay and penalty kill, and is overall one of the most impactful players in the entire NHL. Without him, the Rangers will have to rely more on some of their other young defensemen including K’Andre Miller, who broke the 22-minute mark last night for the fourth straight game.

Trade Rumors: Chiarot, Oilers, Coyotes, DeBrusk

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While the Marc-Andre Fleury-Washington Capitals connection was the highlight of the most recent “32 Thoughts” column from Sportnset’s Elliotte Friedman, the insider had plenty else to say about the burgeoning trade market. Though just a small note, the inclusion most likely to come to fruition is Friedman’s report that several teams are pursuing Montreal Canadiens defenseman Ben Chiarot. Chiarot’s name has been out there among trade candidate all season and it isn’t going away. As the top impending free agent on the NHL’s worst team, Chiarot is a near lock to be dealt. Friedman reports that the Calgary Flames, Florida Panthers, and St. Louis Blues are among the teams confirmed to have interest in Chiarot, but Friedman also keys in on another possibility: the Toronto Maple Leafs. The rumblings out of Toronto suggest that the Leafs are targeting a defenseman at the trade deadline and they may very well need one to escape the ultra-competitive Atlantic Division. Friedman notes that the club kicked the tires on Chiarot when he was a free agent and could be a top contender to land him this time around.

  • Another report that is hardly outside the box is Friedman’s suggestion that the Edmonton Oilers have looked into just about every goalie that could potentially be traded this season. Among the list of names are some who have already been linked to Edmonton, such as Columbus’ Joonas Korpisalo and Dallas’ Braden Holtby and Anton Khudobin, but other interesting targets include Philadelphia’s Martin Jones and Washington’s Ilya Samsonov and Vitek Vanecek. However, the key piece of Friedman’s report is that the Oilers may end up empty-handed if they aren’t willing to improve their offer. Friedman hears from potential trade partners that Edmonton is not willing to move their first-round pick and increasingly hesitant to move their second-rounder as well. Without a third- or fourth-round selection this year, the Oilers are seemingly only peddling late-round picks, with top prospects likely off the board as well. That won’t get it done in a sellers’ market.
  • One goalie who likely won’t wind up in Edmonton is Arizona’s Karel Vejmelka. Though there have been few bright spots in the Coyotes’ dismal season, Vejmelka’s play has given fans in the desert some hope. The 25-year-old rookie, an unheralded import from the top level in Czechia, has performed well this season. By league standards, his .901 save percentage and 3.40 GAA may not seem like much to be excited about, but as a first-year NHLer playing behind one of the worst rosters in the league, the keeper has held his own in 25 appearances. Rather than quickly flip Vejmelka to another team, the ’Yotes seem insistent on extending the goaltender instead, including him as a core piece in their rebuild.
  • Still in Arizona, where rumors circle the struggling squad, Friedman reports that young forward Lawson Crouse is unlikely to be traded despite recent speculation. The hulking power forward is not without his flaws, but with 10 goals and 20 points in 40 games, Crouse is well on his way to a career year. Although the Coyotes have shown their willingness to move on from high-potential players for the right price by placing Jakob Chychrun on the block, Friedman states that they have begun telling suitors that they would prefer to keep Crouse.
  • Elsewhere, The Athletic’s Fluto Shinzawa writes that the market for Bruins forward Jake DeBrusk is in fact as cold as it seems. There was a flurry of speculation when DeBrusk first requested a trade, but it has quieted down significantly since Boston’s play improved in the new year. This isn’t because the Bruins aren’t listening though. Instead, Shinzawa reports that teams seem hesitant to make the commitment to DeBrusk, at least at the Bruins’ asking price. While his play has improved of late, it is still far off his performance earlier in his career and not up to the level that his $4.41MM qualify offer demands. The challenge for the Bruins is to find a team willing to pay the asking price that either is willing to qualify or otherwise negotiate an extension with DeBrusk or conversely a team that sees him as a rental, as recent rumors have suggested the New York Rangers might. Neither the Bruins nor DeBrusk want to extend their relationship, but it may be easier said than done to find the right deal.

Kaapo Kakko Listed As Week-To-Week

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The upper-body injury that landed Rangers winger Kaapo Kakko on injured reserve is one that has been lingering for a little while and could keep him out for a while, reports Mollie Walker of the New York Post.  It has been a disappointing third season for the 2019 second-overall selection who has managed just 14 points in 37 games although the fact he was playing through this could at least play a small role in his sluggish start.  Head coach Gerard Gallant indicated that the 20-year-old is currently listed as out week-to-week.

Jarred Tinordi Clears Waivers

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Jan 24: Tinordi has cleared waivers, according to Johnston. The veteran defenseman has now been sent to the taxi squad, which will take his cap hit entirely off the books for the Rangers. To fill his roster spot, Morgan Barron has been recalled.

Jan 23: The New York Rangers placed defenseman Jarred Tinordi on waivers today, per TSN’s Chris Johnston.

Tinordi last dressed for a Rangers game on January 10th, a loss to Los Angeles. He has a goal in just seven games with the Rangers this season, averaging only 12:55 of ice time per game.

He played five games earlier this season with the AHL’s Hartford Wolf Pack on a conditioning loan in December after playing just five games during October and November. Often a healthy scratch, the Rangers will gain a bit more roster flexibility if Tinordi clears.

A first-round pick of the Montreal Canadiens in 2010, the 29-year-old Tinordi has been claimed on waivers once before. The Boston Bruins picked him up in February of 2021, grabbing him from the Nashville Predators.

Tinordi is signed through 2022-23 with a cap hit of $900,000.

Lafreniere Exits COVID Protocol, Barron Assigned To Taxi Squad

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  • The Rangers announced (Twitter link) that winger Alexis Lafreniere has cleared COVID protocol and has been reinstated to the active roster. The 20-year-old has had a quiet sophomore season so far, notching just 11 points in 37 games which isn’t what New York was expecting when they drafted him first overall in 2020.  Morgan Barron was assigned to the taxi squad to make room for Lafreniere on the active roster.

Poll: Is The Eastern Conference Playoff Picture Already Complete?

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It doesn’t make for much of an exciting stretch run, but it just might be the truth and The Buffalo News’ Mike Harrington isn’t afraid to make the claim: less than halfway through the 2021-22 NHL season, the eight Eastern Conference playoff spots appear to be locked up. While the eight in place can certainly jockey for position, Harrington believes that those teams currently in the postseason in the East will stay in postseason position and those not, including his Buffalo Sabres, have nothing left to play for this season. Do you agree?

The conference standings do paint a pretty bleak picture for the playoff race, as the gap between the eighth and final playoff spot and the next closest competitor is sizeable. In terms of both absolute points and points percentage, the Boston Bruins sit in eighth in the East with 46 points and a .657 points percentage, holding the second wild card spot if the postseason started today. In ninth place in both categories are the Detroit Red Wings, but calling it a distant ninth is generous. Detroit has 39 points on the year, just seven back of Boston, but having played four more games than the Bruins the Red Wings are actually just a .500 team, 157 percentage points back. Every other team outside the playoff picture is under .500 and they are all chasing a Bruins team that is 8-2 in their past ten games, riding a five-game winning streak. Just ahead of Boston are the Pittsburgh Penguins, who are also 8-2 in their last ten. The only other teams in the conference that are not 200+ percentage points ahead of Detroit are the Washington Capitals and New York Rangers.

[See: Eastern Conference Standings]

Statistically, there don’t appear to be any clear underachievers outside of the playoff picture primed for a late push either. All eight teams not in a playoff spot in the East have a negative goal differential, with the top mark being the Columbus Blue Jackets at -15. In contrast, the worst differential among the playoff teams is the Rangers’ +17 and they are the only club below +20. Hardly any of the non-playoff teams hold a spot in the top half of the league in any major statistical category either. The New York Islanders are ninth in goals against per game and eleventh in penalty kill efficiency, the Blue Jackets are tied for twelfth in goals for per game, the New Jersey Devils are thirteenth on the penalty kill, and the Ottawa Senators are tied for fourteenth in power play efficiency – end of list.

Yet, can the playoff picture really be sealed up this early? The law of averages suggests that a current playoff team is likely to slump while a current non-playoff team is likely to hit their stride in the second half. In fact, this may have already begun. While the Bruins and Penguins have been surging, the Capitals are just 4-3-3 in their last ten games and struggling to find consistent goaltending and defensive play. The Capitals’ record is also buoyed by a league-leading nine overtime points and their abysmal 30th-ranked power play is a major stain on their playoff resume. If there is a pretender in the East, it could be Washington. The Rangers may also be due for some regression in the second half. New York has exceeded expectations thus far and have somehow found ways to win despite trouble scoring. Their 2.85 goals per game is tied for 18th in the league, behind the likes of Columbus and New Jersey and just .01 ahead of Ottawa. On the flip side of the playoff picture, the Islanders are one of the biggest disappointments of the season. A conference finalist last year, the Isles looked to be building a true contender. While they are still playing a good defensive game, the team has had no luck offensively this season. Yet, with a league-low  30 games played, the Islanders could have time to find their game and fight their way back into postseason consideration. At least on paper, the Philadelphia Flyers should also be better than their current record, while the rebuilding Red Wings and Blue Jackets should be happy with their performance so far this season but would be even happier to get their young rosters into a postseason battle.

It is hard to remember a conference having no battle for playoff position in recent memory, especially so early in the season. While it looks like that could be the case this year in the East, is that actual a realistic expectation? Is the current gap in the standings just too wide to overcome? Or is there enough potential for one or two teams in the playoff picture to collapse while one or two on the outside find a way back? Vote now and comment on which teams, if any, could drop out of the playoff picture and who might replace them.

Is The Eastern Conference Playoff Picture Already Complete?
Yes 73.52% (647 votes)
No 26.48% (233 votes)
Total Votes: 880

[mobile users vote here]

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