Trade Deadline Primer: Nashville Predators
As we stand on the eve of the trade deadline, moves are coming in faster and faster. Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make? We finish our look around the league with the Nashville Predators.
In 2020-21, after their season started disappointingly, many observers were clamoring for the Nashville Predators to begin a rebuild. But they went on an impressive stretch run and made the playoffs. Then, the Predators put up a valiant fight against the Carolina Hurricanes in the first round before falling in six games, and this season they have built on that momentum. Coach Jon Hynes’ squad has battled hard since the start of this year’s campaign and is now in the thick of the Western Conference’s playoff race. Anchored by resurgent performances from the $8MM men in Matt Duchene and Ryan Johansen, along with an otherwordly season from captain Roman Josi, the Predators are firmly in the Western Conference’s playoff race and set to steer clear of the “seller” status GM David Poile has worked so hard to avoid. But with Filip Forsberg (who is now the franchise’s all-time leading goal scorer) a pending unrestricted free agent, the team has an intriguing trade deadline to navigate.
Record
36-22-4, 4th in the Central
Deadline Status
Buyer
Deadline Cap Space
$49.65MM today, $50.8MM in full-season space, 0/3 retention slots used, 42/50 contracts used, per CapFriendly.
Upcoming Draft Picks
2022: NSH 1st, NSH 2nd, NSH 3rd, LAK 3rd, NSH 4th, NSH 5th, NSH 7th
2023: NSH 1st, NSH 2nd, NSH 3rd, NSH 4th, NSH 5th, NSH 6th
Trade Chips
Given his importance to the team and his status as a pending unrestricted free agent, much of the conversation around the Predators’ trade deadline approach has centered around Forsberg. Many expect the team to pursue an extension with their talented winger, but the two camps are “not close” on extension talks, as a source told David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period. As mentioned earlier, Forsberg has been brilliant this season. He’s been an offensive engine for the team and is one of the major reasons for their success. He has 58 points in 49 games, including 33 goals this year. Forsberg has been inconsistent in the past and also somewhat injury-prone, so it makes sense that there could be a divide between Poile and Forsberg. Forsberg could very well want to be compensated with a contract fitting for a player producing as he has been producing, and Poile could respond by pointing to Forsberg’s inability to have a season like this one in the past. It’s a very tricky situation, and it’s unlikely that Forsberg receives an extension he deems acceptable before the deadline. As a result, one has to wonder if Forsberg ends up traded. It would be a catastrophic blow to the Predators’ season, and a move that would be highly polarizing, but Poile has made bold moves before. If he’s sure that he cannot get Forsberg on a reasonable contract, and he isn’t confident that his team is a true Stanley Cup contender, could he move Forsberg for what would inevitably be a significant return package? It’s something to consider.
If the Predators choose to take a different approach to the deadline and decide to add a significant player to bolster their roster, one trade chip they could move to facilitate a deal is winger Eeli Tolvanen. Tolvanen, 22, is currently slotted in as the left winger on Mikael Granlund and Luke Kunin‘s line, which is a prominent role, but his production this season has not been up to the level one would expect for a top-six winger, and especially one who was as touted of a prospect as Tolvanen was. He has nine goals and 20 points this season in 59 games and is on pace to finish with 13 goals and 28 points in 82 games. Tolvanen’s calling card is his shot, but his offensive tools have yet to translate into consistent production. If the Predators want to make a big trade before tomorrow’s deadline but don’t want to part with top prospects such as Yaroslav Askarov, Fedor Svechkov, or Luke Evangelista, maybe Tolvanen is the one that goes the other way. For an acquiring team, Tolvanen represents an NHL-ready upside play whose raw talent could finally be fully realized with a change of scenery.
One potential player who could be moved to help the Predators facilitate a trade is Philippe Myers. Nashville has mountains of cap space to work with at the deadline, so they aren’t in a situation where cap necessarily needs to move out if they want to make a deal. That being said, should Poile have designs on making big moves this offseason, trading Myers may become a priority, so they may get ahead of that now. Myers recently went unclaimed on waivers, so the Predators could need to attach a sweetener asset, maybe a draft pick or a prospect to be able to move him. Myers, 25, has a $2.55MM cap hit that extends into next season, and he has struggled to fit in on the Predators’ team after arriving in the Ryan Ellis trade this past offseason. Myers was a promising, smooth-skating young defenseman in his Philadelphia days, so maybe a team is willing to bet on that version of him re-appearing if Nashville is willing to retain some salary. Either way, it seems that Myers’ days in Nashville could be coming to an end before they ever really had a chance to get going.
Others to Watch For: D Ben Harpur, F Rocco Grimaldi, D Matt Benning
Team Needs:
1) Defensive Help
The Predators’ top pairing of Josi and Dante Fabbro has worked out very well for them this season, so no issues there. Their second pairing is anchored by Mattias Ekholm and features Alexandre Carrier who has had a bit of a breakout season. Their third pairing has been where they’ve had more trouble. As Mark Borowiecki and Benning have battled injuries, players like Harpur, Jeremy Davies, and Matt Tennyson have all seen time on the bottom pairing. That’s not a group that inspires confidence, especially for a team currently looking like a playoff contender. If the Predators decide they want to buy some reinforcements at the deadline, expect adding a defenseman to be their top priority.
2) More Scoring
The engine of the Predators’ offensive attack is their Forsberg-Johansen-Duchene line. Forsberg and Duchene are above point-per-game and Johansen is close to that pace. Granlund has had a strong year as the team’s second-line center, but after him, the scoring gets thinner. Tanner Jeannot, Yakov Trenin, and Colton Sissons form the heart-and-soul line that the team relies on, but this is a team with two clearly defined lines to drive them, and then Granlund with some question marks surrounding him. They could use some more scoring punch to help Granlund out, but it’s not an absolute priority. The defense should be the focus, but if possible, adding a proven scoring winger to help reinforce Granlund’s line would ease the pressure on the two lines the team is currently heavily reliant on.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Philippe Myers Placed On Waivers
March 19: With there being just two days before the trade deadline, there should be an uptick of waiver activity before then. That started today as Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports (Twitter link) that Philippe Myers (Predators), Gerry Mayhew (Flyers), and Phillipe Desrosiers (Jets) are all on waivers.
Extension Talks Ongoing With Forsberg
- Last night on Hockey Night in Canada, Friedman touched on Filip Forsberg‘s contract-extension status and potential trade market. He says that the two sides are not close and that talks have not gone well, and that he believes Nashville Predators’ GM David Poile haas tested the market on Forsberg. Despite this, Friedman says he does not believe that Forsberg is going to be traded at the deadline. While nobody knows for certain where the two sides are in their negotiation, the general expectation is that the Predators do not want to go beyond Roman Josi‘s $9.059MM cap hit, however Forsberg may believe he can get at least $10MM per year on the open market. Even without an extension in place, it makes sense that Nashville would hold onto Forsberg. With the team in playoff position, Forsberg could act as a sort-of rental for the Predators.
Matt Tennyson And Jeremy Davies Recalled, Mark Borowiecki And Matt Benning On IR
- The Predators have recalled defensemen Matt Tennyson and Jeremy Davies from AHL Milwaukee, per a team release. Tennyson has three points in four games with the Preds this season while Davies has only made one NHL appearance this season back in late January. The recalls were needed with the team placing Mark Borowiecki (lower body) and Matt Benning (upper body) on injured reserve.
Nashville Predators Still Trying To Extend Filip Forsberg
The Nashville Predators sit firmly in the first wild card position in the Western Conference, four points ahead of the skidding Vegas Golden Knights and five points ahead of their Central Division rivals, the Dallas Stars. In fact, Nashville is closer to the second-place St. Louis Blues than the Stars are to the, though Dallas does hold two games in hand. With that playoff spot in hand, it certainly would be surprising to see the Predators sell pending unrestricted free agent Filip Forsberg before Monday’s deadline.
Perhaps it shouldn’t be surprising then when Darren Dreger of TSN reports that the Predators have re-engaged in extension negotiations with Forsberg. The insider explains that just “marginal” progress has been made, though the team maintains the focus is on keeping Forsberg, not trading him.
Forsberg of course has been involved in a deadline deal before, one that impacted his entire NHL career to this point. In the spring of 2013, the now-infamous deal for Martin Erat (and Michael Latta) brought the young Swedish forward to Nashville less than a year after he was selected 11th overall by the Washington Capitals. In the decade since, he’s racked up 210 goals in 545 games, including 32 tallies this season. That number puts him in a tie for ninth in the league, and in line for a huge contract, whether it comes with Nashville or not.
One of Predators’ general manager David Poile’s trademarks is signing players to long-term extensions for reasonable–but risky–cap numbers and the 27-year-old forward is one of his biggest wins. Signed to a six-year, $36MM extension in 2016, just before he became a restricted free agent for the first time, Forsberg provided years of excess value as one of the most reliable goal-scoring wingers in the league. Now, on the precipice of just his third contract, he’s having the best season of his career and would likely be sought after by a huge chunk of the league this summer.
With that tempting experience just a few months away, it will certainly be difficult for the Predators to lock him up at this point. The team will undoubtedly need to offer a substantial raise on the $6MM cap hit he has carried so far, and the ink is just barely dry on Tomas Hertl‘s eight-year, $65.1MM contract extension that could shape this offseason’s market.
In this case, at least, the Predators don’t necessarily have to get a deal done before Monday’s deadline. Like any other team that is adding rentals, keeping Forsberg for their own playoff run seems prudent. But deadlines in general have a way of speeding up negotiations, meaning perhaps there will be a decision one way or another before the weekend is through.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Predators Have Inquired About Ryan Carpenter
- The Predators are among the teams to inquire about center Ryan Carpenter, Pope reports. The 31-year-old has just three goals and seven assists this season but is averaging just over two hits per game while winning more than 52% of his faceoffs. For a team looking to add checking depth for the postseason, the pending unrestricted free agent would fit the bill and with a $1MM AAV, he’d be affordable for most teams.
Nashville Predators Sign Navrin Mutter
The Nashville Predators have dipped their toes into the undrafted free agent market, signing Navrin Mutter to a three-year entry-level contract. The deal starts in 2022-23 season and Mutter will continue to play with the Kitchener Rangers for the rest of this season.
Mutter, 20, has split this season between the Rangers and the Hamilton Bulldogs, where he previously served as an alternate captain. The 6’4″ forward has little offensive upside–he has 17 points in 44 games this season–but brings an impressive physical game, sometimes even going over the line. Mutter’s 88 penalty minutes this season is second in the entire OHL, after finishing second in 2019-20 with 107.
That brand of physical hockey has obviously interested the Predators, who have now signed the undrafted forward to an NHL deal. He’ll likely join the Milwaukee Admirals on an amateur tryout when the OHL season ends, but that actually won’t be his first taste of professional hockey. During the 2020-21 season when the OHL was shut down due to COVID restrictions, Mutter played three games with the Stockton Heat, recording two penalty minutes in the process.
Predators Reassign Matt Tennyson To AHL
- The Nashville Predators have assigned Matt Tennyson to the Milwaukee Admirals, where he is having a nice season. In 40 games, the veteran defenseman has 14 points and is a perfect depth option to fill in whenever Nashville has injury issues.
Latest On Filip Forsberg
Heading into the season, many believed that Nashville Predators winger Filip Forsberg, a pending UFA, would be one of the most coveted players on the in-season trade market. The 27-year-old winger was coming off a season where he battled injuries but still managed to post 12 goals and 32 points in 39 games, leading the Predators to a hard-fought six-game series loss to the Carolina Hurricanes. It was believed by many observers that Nashville’s downward trajectory as a team since their 2017-2018 President’s Trophy win, combined with Forsberg’s age and bouts with inconsistency would keep him from getting a long-term deal in Nashville.
But the play of the Predators so far this season has corrected those preseason observers. John Hynes’ squad is 30-18-4 and has a firm grip on the Western Conference’s first wild-card spot. With his team in the playoff hunt and Forsberg surging to 26 goals and 44 points in 39 games Predators GM David Poile now has to navigate a difficult situation with his star winger.
It was reported earlier by Andy Strickland of Bally Sports Midwest that Poile had begun “actively shopping” Forsberg in advance of the trade deadline, and that is certainly one approach he could take with the player. He could also choose to re-sign Forsberg, and in Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet’s 32 Thoughts blog he sheds light on that possibility. Friedman writes that he believes there exists a “will” for both sides to reach an agreement on a contract, and that such a contract’s cap hit would likely need to fall between the cap hits of Forsberg’s Predators teammates Matt Duchene and Roman Josi. ($8MM and $9.059MM, respectively.)
While he states his belief that the Predators’ priority is to re-sign Forsberg, Friedman also notes that Poile’s “preference” is to not keep Forsberg beyond the March 21st trade deadline without a long-term contract. Friedman states that it “won’t happen” if progress on a long-term deal isn’t made, which should intrigue onlooking rival teams. Given Forsberg’s form this season and the chronic scarcity of wingers who can drive play at the NHL level, Predators fans should expect a significant return in exchange for Forsberg should the contract negotiations deteriorate to a point where a trade becomes necessary. They should definitely expect a bit more than Martin Erat and Michael Latta, that’s for sure.
Photo Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
West Notes: Golden Knights, Forsberg, Blackhawks
Much has been made of the Vegas Golden Knights’ salary cap management, with the team playing with fire ever since acquiring Jack Eichel. Now, with the team potentially in a bind if they don’t have enough room to activate healthy players off long-term injured reserve prior to the playoffs, The Athletic’s Jesse Granger suggests a post-Trade Deadline cap-clearing move could potentially be in play. The return dates of Alec Martinez and Mark Stone aren’t certain, and it’s possible both could be healthy before May. If that’s the case, the Golden Knights could potentially move a player after the deadline to a non-playoff team in order to become cap-compliant. There’s no rule preventing this, as the Trade Deadline is legally only relevant because players moved after that date aren’t eligible for playoff games. However, as Granger notes, this could likely significantly reduce the trade value of any player Vegas is looking to move out, considering they’d have no other option to become compliant.
Other rumblings from the Wild West:
- Bally Sports Midwest’s Andy Strickland reports that he’s hearing the Nashville Predators are “actively shopping” Filip Forsberg ahead of the deadline. While the team is a likely playoff lock in the Western Conference at this point, they’re likely not in the Stanley Cup conversation, and Forsberg is a free agent at season’s end. The NHL’s leader in even-strength goals would likely become the deadline’s biggest prize, and any Forsberg deal could reap considerable rewards for Nashville’s future and help replenish a prospect pool that, while it has some nice names, isn’t the strongest. He’s carrying an extremely reasonable $6MM cap hit that most contenders can stomach with some retention.
- According to Scott Powers and Mark Lazerus at The Athletic, if the Chicago Blackhawks and goalie Marc-Andre Fleury agree on a trade, it could potentially net the team a first-round pick. While they do say a second- or third-round selection is probably more realistic, some do believe teams will pay up for last year’s Vezina winner. The team does not have their first-round pick this year after including it in the Seth Jones trade.