Predators Rumors

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Nashville Predators

October 16, 2021 at 11:35 am CDT | by Brian La Rose 3 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading for the 2021-22 season and beyond. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Nashville Predators

Current Cap Hit: $71,926,142 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Cody Glass (one year, $863K)
F Philip Tomasino (three years, $863K)

Potential Bonuses:
Glass: $850K

Glass was brought in as part of the three-team trade that sent Ryan Ellis to Philadelphia. His first two professional seasons haven’t gone as expected as he failed to lock down a regular spot with Vegas, eventually leading to the swap. He’ll get that chance with the Predators but it’s hard to see him doing so well to bypass a bridge contract in the process. From a bonus perspective, he’ll need to work his way into a top-six role if he wants to have a shot at hitting some of his ‘A’ bonuses. Tomasino had a great showing in the AHL last season which certainly played a role in him being slotted in as a regular going back to the summer when they moved Viktor Arvidsson. He has the potential to be an impact scorer although projecting his next deal this early in his career isn’t really possible.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Matt Benning ($1MM, UFA)
D Mark Borowiecki ($2MM, UFA)
F Nick Cousins ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Filip Forsberg ($6MM, UFA)
F Rocco Grimaldi ($2MM, UFA)
D Ben Harpur ($800K, UFA)
F Luke Kunin ($2.3MM, RFA)
G David Rittich ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Yakov Trenin ($725K, RFA)

Forsberg’s contract situation garnered some attention recently when he suggested that his intent is to play out his deal and then decide what he wants to do from there. That’s certainly within his rights but it’s not ideal for the Predators. As their franchise forward, they’re going to want to know his intentions to know whether or not they’ll be moving him in the coming months which makes his case one to keep an eye on. From a next contract standpoint, he’s in line to get a bit more than his current AAV but, barring a big 2021-22 season, it won’t be a substantial jump. Gabriel Landeskog’s deal in Colorado (eight years, $7MM AAV) feels like the type of deal Forsberg might want to target if he’s looking to do a max-term contract.

Kunin’s first season with Nashville was similar to his last one with Minnesota – there were flashes of offensive upside and others where he, like many Predators, struggled offensively. At this point, it’s unlikely the two sides could find middle ground on a long-term commitment so the likelier scenario is that this season plays out to give them a better idea of what’s to come. A one-year deal that keeps him RFA-eligible and gives him a small raise is certainly a viable option. Grimaldi wasn’t really able to duplicate his 2019-20 performance and is more of an in-and-out depth player. His next deal could be cut in half accordingly. Cousins is a steady fourth liner that can move up when needed and while there is definitely a need for that around the league, it’s a spot on the depth chart where teams are trying to save. His next contract should come around this price tag as a result. Trenin was a decent fourth liner last season and should have a similar role this year. He’s arbitration-eligible but with a limited track record, it shouldn’t play much of a role. He could crack the $1MM mark but not by much more unless he moves up the depth chart.

Borowiecki missed time last season due to a concussion as well as some mental health struggles and when he was in Nashville’s lineup, he had a very limited role. Unless he’s able to lock down some more ice time, he’ll be hard-pressed to get the same money on the open market next summer. Benning stepped in nicely on the third pairing last season with an uptick in ice time. At this point, he’s still young enough to be viewed as a late-bloomer so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him get a small raise next summer even though he didn’t fare well in his first trip in free agency in 2020. Harpur cleared waivers at the start of last season and frequently bounced back and forth between the NHL roster and the taxi squad but managed to play a regular role in the second half of the season. He has bounced around so far and is better off as a depth player so it’s unlikely he’ll command much more money next summer.

Two Years Remaining

D Dante Fabbro ($2.4MM, RFA)
D Philippe Myers ($2.55MM, RFA)
F Mathieu Olivier ($750K, RFA)

Olivier brought some energy to the fourth line last season, earning this one-way deal as a result. Unless he can work his way into a regular spot though, he’s someone that should stay close to the minimum.

Myers was the centerpiece of the Ellis trade but is coming off a disappointing season with Philadelphia. He’ll have the chance to rebound while playing a significant role with the Preds. Assuming he does well in a top-four role, he’ll be in good shape to land a long-term contract in 2023 well beyond his $3.06MM qualifying offer. Fabbro’s sophomore campaign wasn’t the best either which put him squarely in bridge contract territory this summer, one that he should be able to easily outperform.

Three Years Remaining

F Eeli Tolvanen ($1.45MM, RFA)

This was one of the more surprising contracts of the summer by the fact it was this low. Granted, Tolvanen doesn’t have a lot of NHL success under his belt but as a first-round pick in 2017, there’s still some upside. Nashville wants to feature him in a bigger role this season and there’s a very good chance that this will wind up being a very team-friendly deal while still keeping him under team control at the end of it.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Matt Duchene ($8MM through 2025-26)
D Mattias Ekholm ($3.75MM in 2021-22; $6.25MM through 2025-26)
F Mikael Granlund ($5MM through 2024-25)
F Ryan Johansen ($8MM through 2024-25)
D Roman Josi ($9.059MM through 2027-28)
G Juuse Saros ($5MM through 2024-25)
F Colton Sissons ($2.857MM through 2025-26)

The Predators sent Seth Jones to Columbus to land Johansen in 2016, then signed him to this contract a year later, thinking they had their center of the future. That didn’t happen and Johansen has been more of a secondary scorer the last couple of years. That resulted in them adding Duchene where history basically repeated itself. Both players are on deals that are now well above market value and Nashville will be hard-pressed to get out of these contracts while getting any sort of value in return. Granlund had to settle for a one-year deal last season but did better this time around. Based on his recent performance, it’s a small overpayment but a bounce-back season is certainly realistic which would improve their value on the deal. Sissons is a valuable role player whose production is on the lower end. The AAV is a little on the high side but they clearly wanted him locked up for the long haul and they have the cap space to absorb the premium.

Josi was one of the top bargains in the NHL for several years before this deal brought him back to market value. He’s a legitimate top defender and based on the way the market went this summer, it’s a fair price for Josi who figures to be a fixture moving forward even if Nashville goes in more of a rebuilding direction. The same can be said for Ekholm who is on a bargain deal this season before his recently-signed extension kicks in next year. He has been their number two rearguard in recent years and $6.25MM for that is certainly fair value compared some of the other contracts that have been signed.

Saros is now the undisputed starter in goal with Pekka Rinne hanging up his skates. He was already easing into that role but the fact they still platooned for large parts of the last two seasons helped keep the price tag for Saros down. He’s right at the median mark in terms cost for starting goalies and with how he played last year, he’s certainly in the top half of starters league-wide. This should be another team-friendly contract to help offset those of Johansen and Duchene.

Buyouts

D Steven Santini ($275K in 2021-22)
F Kyle Turris ($2MM per year through 2027-28)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Best Value: Tolvanen
Worst Value: Duchene

Looking Ahead

From a salary cap perspective, it’s pretty much smooth sailing for the Preds for the foreseeable future. Unless they’re operating under a stricter budget, GM David Poile should have plenty of wiggle room to commit to a long-term extension to Forsberg and try to add some pieces if they want to try to quickly emerge from this reset they seem to be undergoing. And if they go the other way into more of a pure rebuild, then cap space won’t be an issue for a while.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Nashville Predators Extend Mattias Ekholm

October 13, 2021 at 9:16 am CDT | by Gavin Lee 3 Comments

The Nashville Predators have been working for some time on an extension for Mattias Ekholm, and have finally reached an agreement. Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reports that the two sides have signed a four-year extension worth a total of $25MM. The $6.25MM average annual value will be a substantial increase over Ekholm’s current deal, which carries a cap hit of $3.75MM and is set to expire at the end of this season. In a statement, Predators GM David Poile explains exactly why:

When you think about foundational pieces on our hockey team, Mattias Ekholm is certainly at the top of the list, and we couldn’t be happier to get this deal done with the start of the regular season upon us. An alternate captain who leads both vocally and by example, Mattias brings stability and size to our defense corps and has embraced serving as a mentor to the younger players on our team. We have a group of young, right-shot defensemen that includes Alexandre Carrier, Philippe Myers, Dante Fabbro and Matt Benning who all have the opportunity to learn from and play with Mattias on the side opposite him, and we’re excited about the stability that will provide us on the blue line.

Ekholm, 31, has been a key part of the Predators defense for years now, making his debut back in the 2011-12 season and becoming a regular in 2013. One of the most consistent two-way presences in the league, he has recorded at least 23 points in each of the last six seasons, with a career-high of 44 in 2018-19. With Ryan Ellis now in Philadelphia, he will likely be asked to carry even more responsibility on special teams and is easily the team’s most reliable option behind captain Roman Josi.

Still, signing Ekholm at this point is a curious move for the Predators, who don’t appear to be in a true win-now mode at this point. Big contracts to Matt Duchene and Ryan Johansen haven’t worked out, leaving their offensive group a work in progress to this point. Viktor Arvidsson, a big piece of that attack was shipped out this summer, while Filip Forsberg is on the final year of his current deal. If anything, it seemed more likely that Poile would enter this season ready to pull the trigger on some deadline deals that could restock the cupboard and set up the Predators for future success.

An extension for Ekholm certainly removes him from the deadline equation, and locks him into things with the Predators through 2025-26. There’s real risk that this contract won’t look very team-friendly a few years from now, though Ekholm has certainly provided plenty of surplus value to this point. The contract he will finish this year is one of the best bargains in the league, perhaps giving the team one last shot to compete with this group before more substantial changes are made.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Snapshots: Strome, Ekholm, Giroux

October 12, 2021 at 9:07 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 8 Comments

The inevitable departure of Sabres star Jack Eichel? The sudden availability of young Ranger Vitali Kravtsov? A victim of one of a number of unresolved roster crunches? Any of these situations could provide the first trade of the 2021-22 season, but at least one insider believes the first deal of the year could come elsewhere. TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports that the Chicago Blackhawks are quietly shopping center Dylan Strome as they look to manage their surplus at center. With Jonathan Toews healthy and back in the lineup, the off-season acquisition of Tyler Johnson, and the presence down the middle of top prospect Kirby Dach as well as fellow youngsters Henrik Borgstrom and Mackenzie Entwistle, the Blackhawks suddenly find themselves with centers to spare and LeBrun notes that Strome appears to be the odd man out. At just 24 years old and still clinging to the draft pedigree of being the No. 3 overall pick in 2015, Strome has shown flashes of NHL greatness, but not enough consistency to establish himself as a concrete top-six player. Strome is on an expiring contract and will be a restricted free agent this summer and it looks as if his next contract will not be in Chicago. Interested teams have incentive to add Strome sooner rather than later to get a full-season look prior to negotiating that next deal, while LeBrun notes that the Blackhawks also want to make a move as soon as possible. The result could be a trade in a matter of days rather than weeks. The real question is whether Chicago will land a return commensurate with the Strome who recorded 51 points in 58 games in 2019-20 or if instead the lucky buyer can buy low on the skilled pivot given his 17 points in 40 games last year.

Who might be the first major impending UFA to sign a long-term extension this season? The Nashville Predators sure hope that the answer will be Mattias Ekholm. The Predators spurned trade offers for Ekholm last season and doubled down on their loyalty and reliance on the two-way defender when they moved Ryan Ellis this off-season, yet Ekholm is still playing on an expiring contract. Ekholm’s camp has stated that they will not negotiate a new deal during the season, so the clock is ticking for GM David Poile and company to come to terms on a critical contract. Fortunately for the Predators, LeBrun reports that both sides have been working hard over the past few days to hammer out the details of an extension. With Nashville beginning their season on Thursday, Ekholm will either re-sign in the next 48 hours or possibly not at all. It will be a long season for the Predators if the future of the top defender is in doubt all year.
Claude Giroux is in a similar situation with the Philadelphia Flyers as a career member of the franchise playing on an expiring deal. However, no contract is imminent for the Philly captain. LeBrun states that both sides have come to a mutual agreement to wait on extension talks until after the season, quite possibly setting up a separation between the veteran and his squad. It is hard to argue that Giroux is not still a star even at 33; he has scored at just about a point-per-game clip over the past four years and has only missed two games in that span as well. Yet, the Flyers could see his salary cap space as better used on younger assets as they continue to remake their roster. How both Giroux and Philadelphia perform this season will dictate their relationship moving forward.

Nashville Predators Sign Jack Matier

October 11, 2021 at 2:03 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 5 Comments

The Nashville Predators have signed another prospect, inking Jack Matier to a three-year, entry-level contract. Matier was one of the team’s 2021 draft picks and is currently playing for the Ottawa 67’s of the OHL.

Matier, 18, was the 124th overall selection in this year’s draft, nabbed mostly for his size and defensive ability. The 6’4″ Sault Ste. Marie native still doesn’t have a single goal in his 58-game career for Ottawa, and registered just nine points in the 2019-20 season. Still, there’s obviously enough to like about his defensive game for the Predators to hand Matier an entry-level deal this early.

(Update: Matier scored two goals and registered an assist today for Ottawa in their afternoon tilt against the Oshawa Generals. Not a bad follow-up to signing your first NHL contract.)

As with other prospects signed this quickly, Matier’s contract will not actually kick in for this season. Instead, it will slide forward for at least one year–and likely two–meaning he won’t need to negotiate anything new for quite some time. The focus now is on his development at the OHL level and improving his skating enough so that when he’s eligible to make the jump to pro hockey, he’s ready.

Predators Notes: Ekholm, Forsberg, Richards

October 8, 2021 at 7:55 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 3 Comments

If the Predators are going to sign defenseman Mattias Ekholm to a contract extension, it certainly seems like the deal will need to be done soon. Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic reported in a recent TSN Insider Trading segment that Ekholm’s camp as informed the team that they intend to stop talks on a new deal if an agreement isn’t reached by the start of the regular season. The 31-year-old hasn’t exactly hidden his desire to stick around so it may seem strange on the surface but it could simply be used as a pressure point to try to push the deal across the finish line. Ekholm is in the final season of a six-year deal with a $3.75MM AAV and will be getting a significant raise on his next contract, whenever it happens to get done.

Minnesota Wild Claim Rem Pitlick

October 5, 2021 at 1:05 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 2 Comments

The Minnesota Wild have decided to claim Rem Pitlick off waivers from the Nashville Predators according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet, adding a versatile depth forward to their roster.

Pitlick, who signed a one-year, two-way contract in August, gets a chance to return home to the state of hockey just two years after leaving the University of Minnesota. The 24-year-old forward was a third-round selection of Nashville in 2016 but has played just 11 NHL games to this point, spending most of last season on the taxi squad. A top offensive player in college, he does have 28 goals and 46 points in 71 career AHL contests, suggesting that he can certainly hold his own at the professional level.

Instead of returning to the minors though, Pitlick will join the Wild’s active roster for the time being. He adds another center to the mix in Minnesota which is still anything but clear, and could potentially give them a skilled option for the bottom-six. If the Wild decide to put Pitlick back on waivers at some point, Nashville will have a chance to send him directly to the minor leagues if they’re the only team to put in a claim. For now, it looks like he’ll get a chance to show what he can do at the NHL level, even if it is in a part-time role at the fringe of a roster.

Latest On Mattias Ekholm, Filip Forsberg

September 29, 2021 at 2:10 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 3 Comments

At one point last season, speculation swirled around the Nashville Predators and every member of their veteran core. The team was playing poorly, half the roster was injured and it was obvious a change was necessary if they ever wanted to open up opportunities for some of the organization’s young players. Mattias Ekholm, who was only signed through the 2021-22 season was an obvious target, and teams all across the league started expressing interest even though the veteran defenseman was clear in his desire to stay in Nashville.

The Predators turned things around and made the playoffs without selling off any assets at the deadline, but a first-round exit made all of the trade talk surface once again. Viktor Arvidsson and Ryan Ellis, two of the faces of the franchise, were moved this offseason in deals that opened up quite a bit of cap space and added younger pieces to the organization. Now, as the season approaches, there are two more core pieces under the microscope because of their contract status.

One of them, Ekholm, made it very clear once again today that if possible he’d like to stay with the Predators past this season. Speaking to reporters including Paul Skrbina of the Tennessean, the 31-year-old defenseman explained that he would have signed an extension “yesterday” if he could, though he’s leaving the negotiations up to his agent and Nashville GM David Poile. The feeling appears to be mutual, as Poile explained last month that after signing Juuse Saros to an extension, the team would turn their attention to a deal for Ekholm.

With Ellis out of the picture, even more weight will be put on the shoulders of the veteran duo of Ekholm and Roman Josi. While young Dante Fabbro has shown he can handle an increased role and Philippe Myers, acquired in the Ellis deal should fit in nicely, the Predators’ hopes really rely on their two anchors on the back end. Josi is entering the second season of his massive eight-year, $72.5MM extension, but Ekholm will carry a cap hit of just $3.75MM in the final year what became one of the most valuable contracts in the league. After earning just $22.5MM over the six-year contract, he’ll likely be looking for quite the raise if an extension is to be worked out.

The other player that will draw speculation this season is Filip Forsberg, the team’s best offensive weapon and another veteran on an expiring deal. Poile explained last month that he would reach out to Forsberg’s representatives before training camp, but it doesn’t sound like those negotiations have really started at this point. The 27-year-old forward told Robby Stanley of 102.5 The Game yesterday that he has “no rush to sign” and feels like “you have to play your contract out.”

Acquired from the Washington Capitals in an infamous 2013 trade, Forsberg has routinely been the Predators’ most reliable offensive player. He has 385 points in 497 games with the team, including 32 in 39 during the 2021-22 season. If he does end up on the open market next summer he would be a target for many teams looking to add to the top-six, meaning if a deal can’t be worked out at some point, speculation will swirl once again as the trade deadline approaches. Forsberg carries a cap hit of $6MM this season, and like almost everyone else in Nashville, does not hold a no-trade clause.

Should Nashville Consider Moving Filip Forsberg?

September 11, 2021 at 5:00 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 8 Comments

Matt Porter of The Boston Globe posits that the Predators should consider trading winger Filip Forsberg. The 27-year-old is entering the final year of his contract and with Nashville heading into what appears to be some form of a rebuild, extending him would go against that direction and take away some potential assets to add to their future core. Forsberg carries a $6MM AAV without any form of trade protection which would give the Preds some extra flexibility to find him a new home if they decide to go that route at some point during the season.

Poile: Preds Don't Want To Be In The Middle

September 4, 2021 at 12:45 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 4 Comments

After three straight early playoff exits, the Predators have embarked on somewhat of a reset this summer that saw long-term pieces Viktor Arvidsson and Ryan Ellis head elsewhere. Speaking with Gentry Estes of The Tennessean, GM David Poile indicated that he wants to avoid the dreaded middle and is okay with taking a step back to move out of that spot in the standings:

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