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Talks Picking Up On Kevin Fiala

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Last season was something of an all-in moment for the Minnesota Wild, thanks to the tough cap situation that is just on the horizon. The team will have more than $12.7MM in buyout penalties in 2022-23, and more than $14.7MM in the following two seasons. That means when it comes to extending restricted free agent Kevin Fiala, there isn’t much money in the piggy bank.

That has led to Fiala’s name leading the trade market as the draft approaches, almost a sure bet to be dealt at some point this offseason. He’s the top name on The Athletic’s trade bait board, Michael Russo of The Athletic suggests that he will be dealt within the week, and Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reports that things are “intensifying on the Fiala front.”

Last month, Russo and Harman Dayal examined the kind of return the Wild should expect for their young star, following his breakout season that included 33 goals and 85 points. The 25-year-old winger is one of the most dynamic offensive talents in the league, and though there has been some inconsistency throughout his career, could drastically change the outlook of several teams.

His relative youth makes him an attractive target for just about anyone, though he does come with the caveat of restricted free agency. With six years under his belt already, he could go through arbitration and walk directly to the open market in a year, if he doesn’t reach a long-term extension with whatever team acquires him. That is a risk, meaning interested teams would likely want to discuss at least the framework of a contract before actually pulling the trigger on a trade.

With the draft right around the corner and free agency to come, the NHL trade market is about to get interesting. Fiala’s name is right at the top of that and could be the first domino to fall this summer.

Free Agent Focus: Minnesota Wild

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Free agency is now less than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Wild.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Kevin Fiala — Fiala might be the most high-profile casualty of GM Bill Guerin’s decision to buy out both Ryan Suter and Zach Parise last offseason. The Wild are facing a $6.3MM cap penalty from each of Parise and Suter’s buyouts for next season, and that figure rises to $7.3MM for the next two seasons after 2022-23. So, that has meant that the Wild have essentially acknowledged their reality with Fiala, that they can’t afford the long-term deal he could get from elsewhere and that the best option for both the team and player is a trade this offseason. So, for the Wild, Fiala’s restricted free agency isn’t about what his next contract will look like but is instead about what the return for him will be in a trade. Fiala had 85 points in 82 games this past year and drove the Wild’s second line. Fiala will face questions about his game, namely regarding his playoff woes, as he had only one playoff goal over the past two seasons. Additionally, there is the fair question of how a Fiala-led line would produce outside of an environment where they have another top line to absorb the opposing team’s toughest defensive matchups, as the Kirill Kaprizov line did in Minnesota. But even with those questions, Fiala is in line to be paid this summer, especially when one considers the additional leverage he will hold over any team that acquires him via trade.

D Jacob Middleton — The Wild made a slew of trade deadline additions in order to bolster their squad, and one of their lower-profile pickups was acquiring Middleton from the San Jose Sharks. The Wild surrendered goalie Kaapo Kahkonen in the deal, someone who was once considered to be the Wild’s “goalie of the future.” Guerin’s willingness to part with Kahkonen to get Middleton is an indication of how firmly he believed in Middleton’s fit in Minnesota. Middleton, 26, was brought to the Wild because of his physicality and overall defensive game. He averaged just under 18 minutes per night as a member of the Wild and also featured on their penalty kill. The Wild clearly like what Middleton brings, meaning an extension with some term attached can’t be ruled out. The presence of the buyouts obviously complicates things, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Middleton gets a contract between $2MM-3MM to stay in Minnesota, contracts similar to the ones other defense-first blueliners such as Tucker Poolman, Dylan DeMelo and Derek Forbort received.

Other RFA’s: F Mitchell Chaffee, F Nick Swaney, D Fedor Gordeev, G Dereck Baribeau

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

G Marc-Andre Fleury — The Wild acquired the 2021 Vezina Trophy winner at the trade deadline and alternated between him and Cam Talbot for the rest of 2021-22. The Wild are interested in a return for that tandem, but Fleury may be able to earn a larger contract from elsewhere. Fleury did not play to Vezina Trophy form last year, but he was still solid, especially after his trade to the Wild. He didn’t have a great playoffs, but few on the Wild did, and Fleury is at the point in his career where a small dip in performance isn’t likely to tank his earning potential anyway. Fleury is still widely viewed as a starting-caliber goalie, so while he’ll turn 38 later this year a retirement doesn’t seem to be in the cards just yet. What Fleury makes on the open market this offseason will likely depend on if he prioritizes fit over cost on his next contract and therefore whether he is willing to take a smaller contract in order to sign with the team he prefers.

F Nicolas Deslauriers — While the NHL is about speed and skill more than ever before, there is still room in the league for players like Deslauriers and his trip to unrestricted free agency will likely reflect that. The Wild acquired Deslauriers near the deadline to add some grit to their team, and Deslauriers did just that. He didn’t do very much else, with only three goals and zero assists in his 25 total games with the Wild, but that’s what’s about expected from Deslauriers, given that he has only 85 points in over 500 career games. Some fans might scoff at the idea of their team bringing Deslauriers in as a free agent, but he’s clearly valued by the league’s decision-makers and liked by his coaches. A return to Minnesota is definitely possible, although they could prefer to divert as many cap dollars as possible to scoring help in order to compensate for the expected loss of Fiala, which would then push Deslauriers out.

F Nick Bjugstad — Bjugstad, a Minneapolis native, is no longer the player that scored nearly 50 points on Aleksander Barkov’s wing in Florida. Major injury woes have taken their toll on Bjugstad’s play, and since scoring 49 points in 2017-18 Bjugstad hasn’t crossed the 20-point mark since. In Minnesota, Bjugstad has stabilized his career and become a semi-regular face in the Wild’s bottom-six. He didn’t play well enough this past year to earn a spot in the Wild’s postseason lineup, and despite his bottom-six role he has not featured on the Wild’s penalty kill. Bjugstad played on a $900k cap hit last season and, if Minnesota is interested, should be available to them at a similar number for next season.

Other UFA’s: D Jordie Benn, F Brandon Baddock, F Kyle Rau, F Nolan Stevens, F Dominic Turgeon, D Jon Lizotte, G Zane McIntyre

Projected Salary Cap Space

This is the area where the Wild face their greatest challenge. The previously mentioned buyouts of Suter and Parise have left Guerin and the Wild’s front office operating with a significantly lower effective salary cap than other clubs. The buyouts will cost the team nearly $13MM in cap space this offseason and $15MM for the next two after this summer. As a result, the Wild have only $6.5MM in projected cap space this summer. Trading defensemen with only one year left on their deals such as Dmitry Kulikov or even Matt Dumba could give them some more room, but whatever way you cut it the Wild will find it difficult to make major additions in the next few offseasons without some real creativity involved.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Pavel Novak Diagnosed With Oncological Disease

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  • Minnesota Wild prospect Pavel Novak has announced that he was recently diagnosed with an oncological disease and will begin treatment soon, pushing back any of his offseason training. The 20-year-old forward had a great season for the Kelowna Rockets of the WHL and would have likely been part of the Czech World Junior roster this summer, after being named to it in December before the tournament was postponed. Selected 146th overall in 2020, Novak is confident that he will be able to resume his playing career at some point.

Minnesota Wild Extend Connor Dewar

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June 22: The Wild have officially announced the two-year, one-way deal for Dewar, which will come with an average annual value of $800K.

June 21: The Minnesota Wild are about to avoid restricted free agency with Connor Dewar, as Michael Russo of The Athletic reports the two sides are closing in on a two-year, one-way contract. Dewar is coming off his entry-level deal and would not be eligible for arbitration this offseason. Financial details have not yet been disclosed.

Selected 92nd overall in 2018, Dewar made quick work of the AHL and was in the NHL on a regular basis this season. In 35 games for Minnesota, he scored two goals and six points, while racking up 25 penalty minutes–including a fight against Mackenzie Entwhistle that quickly endeared him to fans. In the minor leagues, he showed that he has outgrown the AHL by racking up 17 points in 19 games, offensive numbers that continued the upward trend that he has followed to this point.

An option as a fourth-line center for the Wild next season, a one-way contract does suggest that Dewar has the inside track for a roster spot in 2022-23. Given that the 22-year-old is no longer waiver-exempt gives him another advantage in that regard, as does what is likely a relatively inexpensive cap hit. With Minnesota dealing with a tricky financial situation thanks to massive buyout penalties, young, cheap forwards like Dewar will be incredibly important.

There is still plenty of work to do for general manager Bill Guerin. While Kevin Fiala may end up traded instead of extended, there are plenty of other restricted free agents that need new contracts, including Jacob Middleton, one of the team’s deadline acquisitions.

Offseason Checklist: Minnesota Wild

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With the offseason in full swing aside from the two teams in the Stanley Cup Final, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Wild.

This past season was an interesting one for the Wild.  They were one of the top scoring teams in the NHL and knowing the cap adventure that lies ahead (more on that shortly), GM Bill Guerin made some moves to add at the deadline in the hopes of a long playoff run.  Instead, despite finishing fifth overall in points during the regular season, they were ousted in the opening round by St. Louis.  Now, Guerin has some work to do to be able to keep as much of this core together as possible which is the focal point of Minnesota’s checklist.

Free Up Cap Space

It’s not as if Guerin hasn’t known this was going to be at the top of his list at some point.  It would have been the case had they not bought out Ryan Suter and Zach Parise and it still is the case with them being bought out as their dead cap charge went up by $4MM for each player.  That’s hard for any team to overcome.  And that’s not the total charge, that’s just the increase; the total is over $12MM for next season.  (If you want to look ahead a year, it goes up by another $1MM each in the 2023 offseason as well; this isn’t just a one-time situation to navigate through.)

At the moment, Minnesota has a little over $7MM in cap space with which to sign multiple forwards, a defenseman, and a second goaltender.  That, on its own, might not sound so bad but once you factor in who some of those players are – that list comprises the rest of their checklist – it’s considerably worse.

It’s not as if there are some contracts that are well above market value on their books but $12MM in dead space is going to be very difficult to overcome.  A small move or two to free up some extra wiggle room could be the difference in whether they can keep a key player or not.  There’s a lot at stake as a result.

Sign Or Trade Fiala

If you read the above and immediately thought of Kevin Fiala, you certainly won’t be alone.  The winger has been in trade speculation going back to last summer with this exact situation in mind.

If the two sides would have been able to work out a long-term agreement last summer, that might have been enough to put an end to that speculation.  Instead, Minnesota took the rare step of pre-emptively filing for arbitration before eventually settling on a $5.1MM salary for this past season.  Fiala then went and had a career year, picking up 33 goals and 52 assists in 82 games, all career highs.  Overall, the Wild received really good value on that deal but things are only going to go downhill from here for them.

Fiala is now a year away from unrestricted free agency and while the Wild can’t take him to arbitration again, he can take them to a hearing, get a nice raise from the arbitrator, and hit the open market in 2023 in the prime of his career.  A long-term deal could approach the $7.5MM to $8MM range and while Guerin probably wouldn’t mind giving that to him, they’d have to part with another core player to make that happen.  At this point, it seems likely that the 25-year-old will be traded.

While Fiala doesn’t have a no-trade clause, he holds the hammer on this front as well.  Fiala on a long-term contract has a lot more value than Fiala on a one-year deal.  Teams can’t put conditional draft picks in a trade that are dependent on whether or not he signs either.  Guerin will need to work hard to get maximum value for Fiala (likely in the form of futures or young roster players) but will also have to work hard with the pending RFA to find a suitor that he’s willing to forego the open market to sign with.  There’s a lot of work to do on this front in a short period of time.

Sign Second Goalie

Guerin surprised some with the acquisition of Marc-Andre Fleury at the trade deadline in an effort to give them a second proven veteran goaltender for the playoffs.  He was a little better down the stretch than he was with Chicago and that got him most of the playing time against the Blues.  While it may have seemed like this was just a short-term pickup, Guerin has expressed a firm desire to keep Fleury around to split time with Cam Talbot next season.

While it’s certainly fair to say that Fleury will get considerably less than the $7MM AAV he had on his expiring contract, he still should have enough interest out there to get half of that price tag.  Even if Fiala moves for futures, Minnesota can’t afford Fleury at that price tag.  They have two options on that front.  One is to try to move a current roster player for someone making less and use those savings to afford Fleury’s new deal.  The other is to work out an incentive-laden deal that gives them the ability to roll over the bonuses onto the 2023-24 cap.  Of course, with the dead money going up, that’s only pushing the problem over, not fixing it.

If they’re unable to keep Fleury, Guerin will need to be aggressive on the open market for a replacement with Kaapo Kahkonen now in San Jose.  Talbot will turn 35 next month and while he’s still a capable NHL goaltender, he’s not someone that can handle 60-plus games next season.  They’ll need a fairly strong second option, one that will be able to play 30 or more games.  That will put them looking in the high-$2MM/low-$3MM range even if it isn’t Fleury.  Jesper Wallstedt is their goalie of the future but he’s a few years away from being NHL-ready.  They need to add another NHL option in the meantime over the coming weeks.

Re-Sign Middleton

The player Minnesota received in the Kahkonen trade, defenseman Jacob Middleton, is also in need of a new contract.  He’s a restricted free agent with salary arbitration rights and is a year away from UFA eligibility.  This is one of those situations where finding fair value is going to be a challenge.

Middleton has just 80 career NHL games under his belt, 66 of which came this season.  Heading into the year, he was a candidate for a deal around the $1MM range but after a strong showing with both the Sharks and Wild, he’s going to get more.  If it gets to an arbitrator, the award could be tricky to pin down because of the limited experience but that doesn’t give Guerin the hammer by any stretch since a low-ball offer could force Middleton to file for arbitration and see what his value is on the open market next summer.

A long-term contract doesn’t seem likely at this point given his limited track record but a deal that buys out a couple of UFA years could be doable.  The AAV would likely jump over $2MM in that situation but it would be a justifiable price.  Of course, the longer the contract, the harder it will be to fit the other pieces of the puzzle in from a salary cap perspective.  Middleton’s case isn’t as prominent as some of the others but it has to stay in the back of Guerin’s mind as he works his way through Fiala’s eventual trade and finding a second netminder.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Wild To Play Blackhawks In Prospect Series

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  • The Minnesota Wild announced today that they will play two games against the Chicago Blackhawks in this year’s Tom Kurvers Prospect Showcase. The games will be on September 17th and 18th in Chicago, and the team says that rosters and additional information will be made available at a later date. The Wild have the third-ranked prospect pool in the NHL, per The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler (subscription link), so those two dates are definitely ones to circle on the calendar for fans of the Wild, Blackhawks, and prospects in general.

Vancouver Canucks Sign Filip Johansson

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The Vancouver Canucks have nabbed one of the more interesting European free agents on the market this offseason. The team today announced the signing of defenseman Filip Johansson, a first-round pick of the Minnesota Wild, to a two-year, entry-level contract. Financial terms are unavailable at this time.

Drafted 24th overall in 2018 by Minnesota, the now-22-year-old’s development in the SHL had stalled over the past few seasons, leading the Wild to the decision to not offer Johansson an entry-level contract as his exclusive signing rights expired on June 1. The 6′ 1″, 176 lb defenseman’s best hockey came in the 2022 postseason, notching five goals and two assists in just nine games with Frölunda HC.

Vancouver general manager Patrik Allvin evidently disagrees with the Wild’s assessment of the player, saying in the team’s release that Johansson “plays a solid defensive game and has shown consistent improvement over the past three seasons.” Allvin also noted that the team will loan Johansson back to Frölunda for the 2022-23 season, meaning Canucks fans won’t get a chance to see their new prospect on North American ice just yet. However, Johansson will attend Canucks development camp next month.

Johansson joins a Canucks prospect pool on defense that lacks much to be truly excited about other than Jack Rathbone and Jett Woo, and he’ll become a giant wild card for the organization. If Johansson can regain his development and reach the defensive ceiling he had when the Wild drafted him, it’ll be a gamble worth taking for the Canucks. If not, Vancouver gave up no assets to obtain the player other than a contract slot. It’s a solid bet from Allvin and the Canucks organization to take a chance on the Swedish defenseman.

Jon Merrill Undergoes Surgery

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  • While Minnesota has provided injury updates on some of their players, they haven’t done so yet for defenseman Jon Merrill who has undergone surgery for an upper-body injury sustained during his first game (and shift) at the Worlds. However, Michael Russo of The Athletic believes (subscription link) that the blueliner is expected to be out longer than the six-week period given for winger Mats Zuccarello and defender Jared Spurgeon for their surgeries.  Merrill had a good first year for the Wild in a depth role, picking up 20 points in 69 games, earning himself a three-year extension midseason as a reward.

Coaching Notes: DeBoer, Vigneault, Boucher

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With just four teams left vying for Lord Stanley’s Cup, the focus is strong on building next season’s roster for most NHL teams. That includes the coaching carousel, which will be active with many big names available this offseason. The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun took a wide-angle lens look around the list of coaching free agents to examine where each could end up moving forward.

One of the coaches named is Peter DeBoer, fired by the Vegas Golden Knights last month after the team missed the playoffs for the first time in franchise history. However, LeBrun notes that while he’s one of the biggest names available, it’s not a sure thing he’ll start the season behind an NHL bench. DeBoer is still owed money for the last year of his Vegas contract, something LeBrun says will allow him the flexibility to take his time on deciding. He surmises that a mid-season hire could be likely for a team looking to make a change after a poor start, but stops short of counting out DeBoer signing full-on with a team before the start of the 2022-23 season.

  • LeBrun says that the “odds are” Alain Vigneault’s NHL coaching career is done. Vigneault will still be paid by the Flyers through June of 2024, so finances aren’t a factor for Vigneault in the short term. LeBrun notes that he’ll be 63 when that contract is over. With 1,363 games under his belt as a head coach and no Stanley Cup, it’s unclear how many offers he’ll get anyways.
  • One wild card name mentioned by LeBrun as a potential offseason hire is Guy Boucher. While he’s been out of a job since 2019, he has a “get rich quick” reputation around the league as a coach who brings short, but immediate success to his new team (2011 Tampa Bay Lightning, 2017 Ottawa Senators). Boucher had been holding out on taking NHL jobs for family reasons, but LeBrun says he’s now ready to get back in the picture.

Minnesota Wild Not Expected To Sign Filip Johansson

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Though it shouldn’t come as much of a surprise with the deadline set for tomorrow, Michael Russo of The Athletic has confirmed that the Minnesota Wild are not going to sign Filip Johnasson. The 2018 first-round pick will become an unrestricted free agent and the Wild will receive a compensatory pick in this year’s draft, which will be 56th overall.

Johansson, 22, has spent the last three seasons playing in the SHL, where his offensive numbers have never really improved. In 47 games this season the young defenseman had just three goals and 11 points. Not only that but he hasn’t been included in any major international events for Sweden since the U18 World Juniors in 2018 and signed a two-year extension with Leksands in December, which keeps him under contract through the 2023-24 season.

All that adds up to a player that didn’t hold a ton of upside for the Wild, and given the fact that they can now get a solid compensatory pick, leaving him unsigned makes at least some sense.

Still, when looking back at the 2018 draft it is easy to think about what could have been. Just as the Wild’s pick was approaching, the New York Rangers traded up four spots and selected St. Paul native and NHL regular K’Andre Miller with the 22nd selection. While it’s certainly no guarantee that the team would have gone with the 6’4″ Miller, who was committed to the University of Wisconsin, he or one of the many other defensemen that followed (Rasmus Sandin, Mattias Samuelsson, and Alexander Romanov are among the group taken soon after) could have been a difference-maker for the Wild already.

Now, though a second-round pick does hold value, the team will likely have to wait several other years for that player to mature and develop–if he makes it at all. This unfortunate result is just another oddity in the whirlwind 14-month tenure of former Minnesota general manager Paul Fenton.

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