Trade Deadline Primer: Minnesota Wild
Although we’re less than three months into the season, the trade deadline is already just three weeks away. Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the Minnesota Wild.
The Minnesota Wild have been one of the more pleasant surprises of the 2020-21 season. Initially believed to be no more than a bubble team in the West Division, not only are the Wild safely within the playoff picture but they are actually well ahead of the rival St. Louis Blues for third place and nipping at the heels of the Colorado Avalanche in second. Minnesota’s season is not just a fluke, either. The long-awaited debut of Kirill Kaprizov has been as advertised, as the young Russian scorer has been one of the league’s most exciting players and has added a legitimate weapon to a team that has long lacked one. With other young players taking a step forward this season, off-season veteran additions solidifying the forward corps, the trade acquisition of Ian Cole rounding out a solid blue line, and a new tandem excelling in net, the Wild are the real deal. In fact, they don’t have many holes.
Well, except one massive, gaping hole. The Minnesota power play is an assault on the eyes. Unorganized and ineffective, it seems almost impossible that such a capable, composed even-strength team can be so bad on the man advantage. At 10%, the Wild’s power play is the worst in the league and no other team currently in playoff position is within nine spots – or 8.9% – of being as bad. While their No. 15-ranked offense is nothing to complain about, it can certainly be improved. With no issues defensively or in goal, as evidenced by strong goals against and penalty kill numbers, and no lack of veteran experience, an offensive weapon with power play ability is really the only focus. With just enough cap space to make one notable addition, it seems a top-six forward who excels man-up will be the Wild’s target and may just be enough to put them over the top.
Record
20-10-1, .661, 3rd in West Division
Deadline Status
Buyer
Deadline Cap Space
$232.2K in full-season space ($1.04MM at the trade deadline), 1/3 retention slots used, 45/50 contracts used per CapFriendly
Upcoming Draft Picks
2021: MIN 1st, PIT 1st, MIN 2nd, MIN, 3rd, PIT 3rd, MIN 4th, MIN 5th, MIN 6th, MIN 7th
2022: MIN 1st, MIN 2nd, MIN 3rd, MIN 4th, SJS 5th, MIN 5th, MIN 6th
Trade Chips
While the Wild are enjoying a great season, GM Bill Guerin is not going to get ahead of himself. Sure, his team could make a run this year, but with some long-term questions still to be answered, such as the team’s future down the middle and the potential impact of the Expansion Draft on his deep lineup, Guerin isn’t going to mortgage the future – and possible years of sustained success – to hope for a Stanley Cup this year. As a result, don’t expect any of Minnesota’s young roster players to be on the market, nor top prospects like Marco Rossi, Matt Boldy, or Calen Addison.
Instead, Minnesota will deal from a nice stockpile of draft picks and try to peddle their top young AHLers and their second tier of prospects. Especially if the goal at the deadline is to add a top-six player with term, a center in particular being the biggest need, young forward prospects such as Alex Khovanov, Marat Khusnutdinov, Adam Beckman, and Damien Giroux could be appealing targets for sellers. Collegiate property Vladislav Firstov, Jack McBain, Nikita Nesterenko and Sam Hentges will also draw interest, especially with the latter three still playing in the NCAA Tournament.
On the back end, there are some questions moving forward in terms of the potential impact of expansion, so the team could be more hesitant to deal top blue line prospects. However, for the right player the Wild may part with Ryan O’Rourke or Filip Johansson.
With the emergence of Kaapo Kahkonen as the apparent starter of the future, Minnesota may also be open to moving their goalie prospects and they own two desirable names in first-year pro Hunter Jones and NCAA star Filip Lindberg.
Others to Watch For: F Mitchell Chaffee ($925K, 2022 RFA), F Will Bitten ($805K, 2022 RFA), F Mason Shaw ($792.5K, 2022 RFA), F Ivan Lodnia ($747.5K, 2023 RFA), D Daemon Hunt (Draft Rights)
Team Needs
1) Top-Six Forward/Power Play Specialist – The Wild’s cap situation looks a little bleak right now, but CapFriendly’s numbers currently reflect a full 23-man roster and with Zach Parise counting against the cap despite not being on the active roster. With Parise back and everyone else staying healthy, paired with some cap space-saving roster maneuvers, CapFriendly predicts that Minnesota could have closer to $3MM in flexibility by the deadline. That could be enough to add a weapon up front. Again, the sole focus is on adding a forward with a history of power play success; a play-maker who understands how to use space and create scoring chances.
With a lot of salary about to come off the payroll next season, the Wild are not limited to rentals in addressing this need. They can certainly add an impending UFA to keep the price down, but with plenty of draft picks and prospects to draw from, they can go bigger with an impending RFA or a player with term.
Andrew Hammond Added To COVID Protocol
There will be at least one new name on the COVID Protocol Related Absences list when it comes out later today. Andrew Hammond of the Minnesota Wild has been placed in the league’s protocol, leading to a recall of Dereck Baribeau from the Iowa Wild. Hammond has previously appeared on the list, though that was due to false positives according to Michael Russo of The Athletic.
It is important to remember that inclusion on this list does not mean that a player has tested positive for Coronavirus or even that they have been confirmed as a close contact to another positive person. There are several reasons why a player could be added and there is a chance of removal the following day.
In Hammond’s case, his placement in the protocol leaves the Wild without a taxi squad goaltender, meaning Baribeau will have to serve as that for the time being. The 22-year-old Baribeau went undrafted after a very average junior career in the QMJHL, but ended up signing with the Wild anyway and has a .920 save percentage through five games this season. Standing 6’6″, he could be a potential late-blooming netminder that is finally learning how to use size to his advantage.
Minnesota Wild Activate Marcus Johansson From Injured Reserve
The Minnesota Wild are suddenly must-see television after adding Kirill Kaprizov, arguably the most exciting player in franchise history. With a record of 18-10-1 it’s not just Kaprizov that should be drawing your attention though, the entire Wild roster seems energized and competitive. Today, they’ll get back another important piece, activating Marcus Johansson from injured reserve.
Johansson, 30, is on the second season of a two-year, $9MM contract signed with the Buffalo Sabres in 2019 but has been out for weeks with an upper-body injury. He has missed Minnesota’s last 16 games and has suited up just 11 times this season. Despite his regular season struggles the last two years, Johansson showed exactly what he was capable of with the Boston Bruins in the 2019 playoffs, routinely being one of the team’s best players and recording 11 points in 22 games.
It’s that postseason performance that should excite fans of the Wild, given how that wasn’t the only time Johansson has gone past the first round of the playoffs. That’s something Minnesota hasn’t accomplished since 2015 and the team hasn’t gone past the second round since 2003. If this team is to change that trend, they’ll need Johansson firing on all cylinders and making his $4.5MM cap hit a worthwhile investment. If he’s not playing up to that level, perhaps his expiring contract could be one shipped out to open up room for a different addition.
Carson Soucy Suspended One Game
The NHL’s Department of Player Safety has issued a one-game suspension to Minnesota Wild defensemen Carson Soucy for his hit on Arizona Coyotes forward Conor Garland. The punishment is for charging, and the accompanying video explains:
It is important to note that this is not a case of a player elevating slightly as part of a natural hitting motion while delivering a full body hit. Nor is it a case of a player coming off the ice after contact because of the force of the collision. If Soucy wishes to deliver this check legally, he must stay low and hit through Garland’s shoulder or core, rather than elevating upward and into his head.
Soucy’s clean record with no fines and suspensions kept the punishment to a minimum, along with the fact that Garland did not suffer a significant injury on the play. Still, the Minnesota defenseman will be held out of their next game and this incident will be taken into account down the line.
Minnesota is back in action tomorrow against the Colorado Avalanche, but Soucy will not be eligible to dress. The 26-year-old has become an important piece for the Wild since the start of the 2019-20 campaign and has eight points in 22 games this season.
Zach Parise To Be Scratched By Minnesota Wild
The Minnesota Wild will not have one of the cornerstones of their franchise in the lineup on Wednesday night, as according to Michael Russo of The Athletic, Zach Parise will be made a healthy scratch. This will be the first time Parise has been a healthy scratch since signing a 13-year, $98MM contract to join the Wild in 2012.
The Wild have recalled Gerald Mayhew and Kyle Rau from the taxi squad, as Ryan Hartman is also expected to miss the game with an injury, but the big news here is Parise. Now 36, the star forward has racked up 801 points in a 1,034-game NHL career, including nine this season in 19 games. Russo connects the scratch to the end of Monday’s game, where Parise was on the ice for more than a minute and a half. The Vegas Golden Knights ended up tying the game with Parise on the ice, then winning in overtime.
Parise hasn’t been as effective this season but has long been one of the most marketable players in Minnesota, racking up points and goals on the regular. He’ll be 37 this summer though, and new GM Bill Guerin will have to make some tough decisions. There are still four years remaining on that contract and though it includes a full no-movement clause, Parise actually waived it last year to potentially go to the New York Islanders and rejoin Lou Lamoriello, the executive who drafted him with the New Jersey Devils in 2003.
It’s not at all clear if Parise will be dealt at some point this season, given how difficult it is to trade a contract like his, but there’s an obvious change coming in Minnesota. The team is rejuvenated with a new star at the forefront in Kirill Kaprizov, and they sit in a playoff spot today in the West Division. A scratch may be a one-time thing, but a quick look at Parise’s ice time numbers this season shows a player that is slowly being phased out. After averaging at least 17 minutes a night in every season since his rookie year, he’s well under that mark now and played just 12:42 in a game against the Los Angeles Kings last week.
Parise and teammate Ryan Suter signed identical contracts in that summer of 2012, ones that would not be allowed under today’s CBA. The 13-year deals are so heavily front-loaded that the last three years see just $4MM in total salary paid out. Those numbers mean that Minnesota would be on the hook for recapture penalties if Parise retires early, something that potentially could be out of their hands if he is traded to another team. It does mean however that anyone acquiring him wouldn’t be shelling out the $7.54MM that his cap hit indicates. After this season, just $10MM remains to be paid to the veteran forward.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Alex Stalock Claimed By Edmonton Oilers
The Edmonton Oilers have nabbed a goaltender off waivers, claiming Alex Stalock from the Minnesota Wild according to Chris Johnston of Sportsnet. Elliotte Friedman confirms that Stalock is expected to report to the Oilers, meaning he’ll have to go through a mandatory quarantine after arriving in Canada.
Edmonton has been struggling to find any sort of goaltending depth since losing Anton Forsberg on waivers earlier this season and had a stretch where Mikko Koskinen was forced to play nine games in a two-week stretch. Mike Smith has returned of late to carry some of the burden, but the Oilers still desperately needed to add a third option in case another injury struck.
Currently, the team is carrying Dylan Wells as their taxi squad goaltender and it isn’t clear exactly how they’ll handle things once Stalock is able to practice. He won’t be eligible to move to the taxi squad, but the Oilers also don’t have much cap flexibility to carry three goaltenders on the active roster.
Still, there’s reason to believe that Stalock could be a real help for this Oilers team. His .910 save percentage last season was better than the .902 Smith recorded and his .909 career mark is better than Koskinen’s .908. The 33-year-old Stalock isn’t a true starter, but it’s not unthinkable to believe he could unseat one of the two at some point.
Of note is Stalock’s contract, which extends through 2021-22 at a very reasonable $785K. The Oilers will be able to leave him exposed to Seattle in the expansion draft and potentially use him as a backup next year.
Minnesota Wild Place Alex Stalock On Waivers
The Minnesota Wild have placed goaltender Alex Stalock on waivers, according to Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston. The 33-year-old veteran led the Wild in wins and starts last season, but has yet to make an NHL appearance this year.
Stalock, who took over as the Wild’s starter last year after a disappointing season by long-time starter Devan Dubnyk, has been out since the beginning of the season due to an upper-body injury. Stalock was coming off a season in which he posted 20 wins, a 2.67 GAA and a .910 save percentage last year in 38 games. He also played in all four postseason games in the bubble last year, but didn’t fare as well, going 1-3 with a 3.03 GAA and a .897 save percentage.
The Wild then changed up their goaltending during the offseason, trading Dubnyk to San Jose and signing Cam Talbot as a free agent. The team also had last year’s AHL Goaltender of the Year Kaapo Kahkonen, leaving Stalock’s status on the team shaky already. Both Talbot and Kahkonen have played extremely well with Minnesota this year. Talbot has a 2.19 GAA and a .926 save percentage in seven appearances, while Kahkonen has 2.41 GAA and a .914 save percentage in 12 games.
That leaves Stalock, who is finally healthy and ready to come off injured reserve, as the odd man out and a serious candidate to be claimed by other teams in need of a veteran goaltender. On top of all that, Stalock is quite inexpensive as he is earning just $725K this year, just his second year in a three-year, $2.36MM deal he signed back in 2019.
With several teams in need of goaltending help, it would seem improbable that the Wild can slip him through to assign him to the taxi squad. One interesting fact is the team could have assigned him to the AHL for a conditioning stint first, but opted not to do that, perhaps hoping that Stalock, who hasn’t appeared in a game since the playoff bubble in August, might not be ready to jump into a game for any time right away, thereby dissuading teams to claim him.
However, there are plenty of teams in desperate need of help in goal (especially veteran help), with many people pointing to the Buffalo Sabres, who just lost Linus Ullmark for a month due to injury, who would be strong candidates to take a chance on him.
The Athletic’s Michael Russo was the first to report that Stalock was going to be put on waivers.
WHL Notes: NHL Loans, Guenther, Knak
The Western Hockey League is finally back in action. Nearly a year since the top junior league canceled the remainder of its 2019-20 season due to the Coronavirus pandemic, the WHL has returned to play. The league announced a 24-game season back in early January with a to-be-determined late-February start date and that date was Friday, as four Central Division teams matched up. As one might expect, the re-opening of the WHL has a number of previously displaced players rushing back to their respective teams. Below are the signed NHL prospects who had been playing in the AHL that have been officially reassigned to the WHL:
Adam Beckman, Minnesota Wild –> Spokane Chiefs
Gianni Fairbrother, Montreal Canadiens –> Everett Silvertips
Kaiden Guhle, Montreal Canadiens –> Prince Albert Raiders
Ridly Greig, Ottawa Senators –> Brandon Wheat Kings
Ozzy Wiesblatt, San Jose Sharks –> Prince Albert Raiders
Tristen Robins, San Jose Sharks –> Saskatoon Blades
- The WHL season may only be one day old, but the league’s leading scorer is a name to know. Dylan Guenther, a consensus top-ten prospect in the 2021 NHL Draft, started his campaign with the Edmonton Oil Kings with a pair of goals and a pair of assists to take the WHL’s top scoring spot. Guenther is one of the greatest beneficiaries of the WHL’s return, however brief, if the NHL does not postpone the 2021 draft. The top prospect was facing the possibility of missing out on his entire draft year, having only played in four games in the Alberta Junior Hockey League. While many CHL players jumped to the USHL this season, Guenther held out hope that the WHL would return and is now rewarded with 24 games to show what he can do. Likely a top-ten pick either way, the lack of certainty in this NHL draft class will now allow Guenther to fight his way into the top-five and potentially even to the top overall spot with an elite performance. A supremely skilled scoring winger, Guenther is the biggest name to watch in the WHL’s shortened season.
- Another name to watch is Swiss forward Simon Knak. Despite some expectation that he would be selected last year in his first NHL Draft go-round, Knak slipped through the cracks. That was despite finding success in his first season in North America, recording 34 points in 49 games for the Portland Winterhawks. However, the draft dream is still alive. Knak has spent this season back home in Switzerland, suiting up for powerhouse HC Davos at the top level of the Swiss National League. He held his own too, recording eight points in 25 games in his first pro experience. Knack very easily could have stayed in Davos and continued his pro career. However, possibly inspired by his recent success as well as a strong run as captain of Switzerland’s U-20 team, Knak has decided to stay true to his plans and head back to Portland. Davos announced that Knak has been recalled from his loan and is returning to the WHL, hoping to catch the eye of NHL scouts by playing a top role for the Winterhawks. The question is whether he can do enough in a shortened season to earn a selection as an overage pick.
Bruce Boudreau Expresses Interest In Seattle’s Head Coach Vacancy
It should be assumed that any free agent head coach with NHL experience will have interest in taking over the reigns of the league’s newest team next season. The Seattle Kraken have yet to name their inaugural head coach, but the team has surely begun the process of vetting candidates. However, there have been no potential names made public, at least until now. Long-time NHL coach Bruce Boudreau has officially thrown his hat in the ring, telling The Athletic’s Ryan Clark that he is “extremely interested” in the position:
The thing about that job is it would be great to start with a team that is starting fresh and to be the builder of something. I think that is a real exciting thing… It is not like an expansion team in 1967. You knew then you were not going to be very good or have the dregs of every team. The way they have gone about it now, Seattle is going to start off with a pretty good team.
Who knows if the call will ever come? I don’t want to get the call and say I am not ready and I don’t know what I would do and I don’t want to feel that way. This is the only thing I have ever known my whole life… If someone offers you a job, it is an amazing thing.
As Boudreau notes, he has not formally contacted Seattle yet, nor has anyone formally reached out to him. GM Ron Francis has previously stated that the club will not rush to name a head coach and by all accounts have not interviewed any candidates to this point. However, the odds are that Boudreau has at least had some contact with the team. The veteran coach has previously worked with Kraken owner Tod Leiweke, as well as other members of the front office. He also stands out as one of the top available names and is likely a seriously candidate for the position, even if only being discussed behind closed doors.
Boudreau, 66, was most recently in the NHL just last season, fired mid-season by the Minnesota Wild in his fourth year with the franchise. Boudreau has more than a decade of experience as an NHL head coach, previously leading the Washington Capitals and Anaheim Ducks as well. Prior to that, he coached for many years and found great success in the minors. Among his career accolades are a Jack Adams Award, a number of NHL playoff appearances, and championships in the AHL and ECHL. If the Kraken decide to go for the most experienced candidate as their inaugural head coach, few can rival Boudreau.
Poll: NHL’s “Thanksgiving Trend” Revisited
Fans of the NHL are sure to be familiar with the deeper meaning that American Thanksgiving holds each season. With unrelenting consistency, the NHL’s standings on the final Thursday of November have had great predictive ability when compared to the final regular season standings. In fact, over the past seven years the Thanksgiving standings have been about 75% accurate at forecasting eventual playoff teams, predicting 12 of 16 spots on average. Even though American Thanksgiving only rolls around less than two months into the season, three out of four teams in a playoff spot at that time will have retained their postseason berth when the season ends.
The 2019-20 season of course did not have a standard postseason, but if it had then the Thanksgiving trend would have proved even more prophetic in a shortened campaign. Last year, in which teams were limited to between 68 and 71 games apiece prior to the early termination of the regular season, the Thanksgiving standings would have predicted 13 of 16 playoff teams in the standard format. Of the three teams that would have slid out of the postseason, the Florida Panthers trailed the Toronto Maple Leafs by .014 points percentage in the Atlantic Division and the Winnipeg Jets missed out by a measly .001 points percentage behind the Calgary Flames as the final Western Conference wild card. The Thanksgiving standings were that close to predicting 15 of 16 playoff teams in the shortened season, with the unexpected slow start for the Vegas Golden Knights and hot start for the Arizona Coyotes being the other unsurprising course correction.
But how does this trend impact a season that didn’t even begin until well after American Thanksgiving? Based on total games played by Thanksgiving over the past few seasons, Thanksgiving represents about the 30% progress through the NHL season. In the current 56-game season, that comes out to about the 17-game mark. Although postponements and rescheduling have created a wide discrepancy in games played among teams this year, the league as a whole passed that 17-game average on Saturday: Happy Thanksgiving. Admittedly, the 2020-21 campaign does have a different playoff model as well, one that is somewhat stricter than the last few years without the fallback of a wildcard spot for a team on the fifth-place fringe in their division. Yet, it is still a 16-team postseason and the Thanksgiving trend should hold. Using points percentage to rank the standings (the stat may end up determining playoff position for a second consecutive season anyhow) and adjusting for the season’s makeshift divisions, here is the current “Thanksgiving” outlook:
North Division East Division
Toronto Maple Leafs (.789) Boston Bruins (.733)
Montreal Canadiens (.625) Philadelphia Flyers (.679)
Winnipeg Jets (.618) Washington Capitals (.594)
Edmonton Oilers (.600) Pittsburgh Penguins (.594)____
Calgary Flames (.472) New Jersey Devils (.583)
Vancouver Canucks (.405) New York Islanders (.559)
Ottawa Senators (.237) New York Rangers (.469)
Buffalo Sabres (.429)
West Division Central Division
Vegas Golden Knights (.700) Carolina Hurricanes (.781)
Colorado Avalanche (.679) Florida Panthers (.750)
St. Louis Blues (.611) Tampa Bay Lightning (.700)
Minnesota Wild (.571) Dallas Stars (.583)
Los Angeles Kings (.531) Chicago Blackhawks (.579)
Arizona Coyotes (.500) Columbus Blue Jackets (.526)
San Jose Sharks (.500) Nashville Predators (.412)
Anaheim Ducks (.417) Detroit Red Wings (.325)
Now this begs the question, especially seeing how accurate the Thanksgiving standings were in last year’s shortened season but also accounting for the many disruptions for a number of teams early this season, who is the trend currently overlooking? Which teams currently outside the playoff picture, if any, do you think will make the postseason when all is said and done later this season? Use the comments section below as well to discuss which teams may fall out of the postseason and whether you feel the Thanksgiving trend will apply this season.
Which Of These Teams Will Buck The "Thanksgiving" Trend And Make The Playoffs?
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New York Islanders 23% (263)
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Chicago Blackhawks 19% (215)
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Los Angeles Kings 10% (110)
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None - "Thanksgiving" goes 16/16 9% (102)
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Columbus Blue Jackets 8% (88)
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Calgary Flames 6% (73)
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New Jersey Devils 6% (64)
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New York Rangers 4% (50)
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Arizona Coyotes 4% (42)
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Vancouver Canucks 4% (42)
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Buffalo Sabres 2% (25)
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San Jose Sharks 2% (18)
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Detroit Red Wings 1% (17)
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Nashville Predators 1% (14)
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Anaheim Ducks 1% (9)
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Ottawa Senators 1% (7)
Total votes: 1,139