The new year is here and the NHL season is in full swing. Teams are jockeying for playoff position, and many players with expiring contracts across the NHL are playing games that could ultimately determine what type of payday they might receive in the summer.
In a multi-part series, we’ll take a look at each position group of the upcoming free agent class, and do a rundown on how those upcoming unrestricted free agents have performed this year. Which players have increased their odds of landing a massive contract? Which players have potentially hurt their earning potential with their play? We’ll break it all down here.
The Marquee Names
Jake Guentzel, Pittsburgh Penguins
Although the Penguins as a team haven’t had as strong of a first half of the season as they’d likely hoped to have, Guentzel is having an incredible individual season. Still just 29 years old, Guentzel is currently on pace to score 37 goals and 92 points if he keeps up his current pace across a full 82-game schedule. That would mark a career-high for the player, whose previous best season came when he scored 40 goals and 84 points.
Guentzel has long meshed with all-time talent Sidney Crosby on the Penguins’ first line, ever since he was a rookie and scored an otherworldly 42 points in his first 37 playoff contests. The Stanley Cup champion and two-time All-Star has been the most talented winger in Pittsburgh for quite a while now, and his elite form this season is setting him up nicely for a massive payday. Pittsburgh will undoubtedly make a strong effort to keep him, but with William Nylander earning $11.5MM on his own contract extension, one wonders if Pittsburgh will be able to stomach making Guentzel its highest-paid player.
With Erik Karlsson already making $10MM against the Penguins’ cap and significant dollars already committed to Crosby ($8.7MM), Kris Letang ($6.1MM), Evgeni Malkin ($6.1MM), and over $15MM to the trio of Bryan Rust, Reilly Smith, and Rickard Rakell, it could take some creativity to find a way to fit in a Guentzel megadeal. If they can’t manage that or otherwise elect to part ways with their leading scorer, expect him to potentially be the top available name on most free agent rankings.
Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay Lightning
It’s relatively surprising to see Stamkos, who one could argue is the greatest forward in Lightning history, still without a contract extension beyond this season. If he does end up hitting the open market, though, he’s likely to be one of, if not the biggest name available in free agency. Set to turn 34 in February, Stamkos has in recent seasons moved away from the center position he’s long occupied.
As the team’s focus down the middle has shifted to Brayden Point and Anthony Cirelli, Stamkos’ production has remained rock-solid. The Lightning captain is hovering around a point-per-game mark once again, and is scoring at above a 30-goal pace as everyone has come to expect of him.
The fact that he’s no longer playing center will surely eat into his earning power somewhat, though it’s important to note that he nonetheless is an extremely experienced center who could very well shift back to the position on a new team.
In any case, what Stamkos offers to teams in free agency is clear: he’s one of the defining talents of this most recent era in the NHL, combining lethal scoring ability with widely respected leadership and playoff experience.
It’s not often that a two-time Stanley Cup winning captain hits free agency, and it’s even less frequent for that player to hit free agency coming off of an eighth consecutive season scoring at around a point-per-game. His age might mean that he won’t receive the largest full guarantee in free agency, but make no mistake, Stamkos is likely to be one of the most in-demand players if he hits the open market and his strong 2023-24 is a reason why.
The Solid Contributors
Teuvo Teräväinen, Carolina Hurricanes
Currently slotted in as the Hurricanes’ first-line right winger alongside Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov, Teräväinen is set to be one of the bigger names available on the open market this summer. But is his recent form befitting of someone of that high of a profile? That’s a different question. The 29-year-old scored 65 points in 2021-22 but dealt with some injury issues last season and has generally underperformed relative to expectations since.
Teravainen followed up his 65-point campaign with just 37 points in 68 games, and this season is on pace for 48 points in a full 82-game slate. He’s scored just four points in his last 10 games, and as we inch further and further away from Teräväinen’s days as a reliable 60-plus point scorer, it becomes harder and harder to avoid the feeling that this decline could be a permanent one. Teräväinen won’t turn 30 until next season, of course, and it’s still possible that he’s just been unlucky. It’s not as though his role in Carolina has declined, after all.
Teräväinen has a 76-point season on his resume and will likely be among the most gifted playmakers available to teams on the free agent market. The package of tools he provides is rare across the NHL, and typically scoring forwards like him earn contracts that reflect their scarcity. Teräväinen’s stock is undoubtedly down given his declining numbers, but he has all the talent in the world to author a big second half of the season and push his way back to the forefront of the free agent market.
Adam Henrique, Anaheim Ducks
A model of consistency throughout his nearly 900 games in the NHL, Henrique is the kind of player just about every team would like to add to its roster. He’s versatile, playing both along the wings and at the center position. (he’s currently slotted in as the Ducks’ second-line center.) He’s defensively responsible and offensively capable, scoring around 20 goals and 40 points per season with the potential for more while also enduring hefty short-handed ice time. And he’s a valued leader who has worn a letter on his sweater for six total seasons combined across his time with the Ducks and Devils.
He’s making $5.825MM against the cap on his current deal, and with his offense down a touch (he is scoring at a 44-point pace compared to his 50-point pace last season) it’s not a significant enough decline to really be all that notable. What is more notable, however, is the fact that he’ll turn 34 in February. That makes it a significantly more challenging prospect for Henrique to earn a long-term deal, but he could potentially command a large one-year guarantee if that’s what he so chooses.
What Henrique fetches at the trade deadline, assuming the rebuilding Ducks opt to send him to a contender, will go a long way in helping project Henrique’s leaguewide standing. At this point, his stock appears to be holding steady.
Tyler Bertuzzi, Toronto Maple Leafs
After a strong finish to his 2022-23 season with the Boston Bruins, Bertuzzi signed a one-year, $5.5MM contract in Toronto likely with the hope that a season there would be a launching pad to a more lucrative free agent trip in a year’s time.
So far, Bertuzzi’s season has not quite gone as hoped. While he has thankfully remained healthy, Bertuzzi hasn’t had the impact in Toronto that he likely envisioned. He’s playing on a line with two elite scorers in John Tavares and William Nylander, but has only managed 18 points in 39 games. That’s not up to the standard he set in Boston, or the production he showed he was capable of at times in Detroit.
As a result of his slow start to the year, Bertuzzi’s free agent stock is undoubtedly down from where it was last season, and it raises questions as to whether choosing a one-year deal on a high-scoring team to bet on himself was the right option in his previous trip to free agency, compared to just signing the largest possible long-term deal he could get. Because right now, it’s unlikely Bertuzzi’s long-term offers match what he likely received the year before.
Jason Zucker, Arizona Coyotes
Despite scoring 27 goals and 48 points last season, Zucker did not receive a long-term contract in free agency last season. That was somewhat understandable given Zucker’s struggles with injuries and inconsistency as a Penguin, but it was still somewhat surprising to see a five-time 20-goal scorer settle for a one-year deal.
The hope was likely that playing in a relatively low-pressure environment as a Coyote alongside some talented offensive players such as Matias Maccelli, Nick Schmaltz, and Clayton Keller could lead to a career year. That hasn’t happened yet, as he’s scored just six goals and 12 points so far this season.
With the Coyotes still in striking distance of a playoff spot, there is certainly room for Zucker to raise his stock in the rest of the campaign. But at this current moment, Zucker’s unlikely to receive the same kind of $5.3MM AAV guarantee he did last summer.
The Role Players
Stefan Noesen, Carolina Hurricanes
Despite receiving the second-lowest average ice time of any regular Hurricane, Noesen is on pace for a career year offensively. This comes just after Noesen already set career highs last season by scoring 13 goals and 36 points.
Playing on just a $762.5k cap hit, Noesen’s current play makes him one of the most valuable players on a cost-per-point basis, not including players such as Connor Bedard who are locked into entry-level deals.
Noesen has received a regular dose of power play time alongside his 10 minutes or so of even-strength ice time per game, and he’s made the most of it. It’s not entirely common for players to experience breakout years in quick succession once they’ve reached their late twenties, but that’s exactly what Noesen has done.
Ever since he led the AHL in goals in 2021-22, Noesen has been on a steep upward trend. So far this season he’s sustained that upward trend and has lined himself up to potentially receive a significant pay raise in the free agent market.
James van Riemsdyk, Boston Bruins
Now 34 years old, “JVR” is in the midst of a resurgent campaign with the Bruins. Although he receives just a shade over 13 minutes of ice time per game, he’s made the most of it. He’s on pace to score 53 points this season, which would be his highest total since he was a 36-goal scorer on the Toronto Maple Leafs.
It’s not been Van Riemsdyk’s prolific goal-scoring that’s led the way for his resurgence, instead, it’s been how well he’s meshed with the other offensive talents in Boston. Playing in a down-low net-front role on the Bruins’ power play, van Riemsdyk’s been a conduit for quite a bit of high-danger scoring chance creation around the net.
He’s elevated his teammates through doing that and is on pace for his best offensive season in a half-decade. He’s making $1MM against the cap this season, but he could get a raise from that number if he can manage to keep up how he’s played so far this year.
Dominik Kubalík, Ottawa Senators
It’s been something of an odd season for Kubalík. His ice time has remained relatively steady at a little over 14 minutes per game, he’s playing alongside talented linemates such as Vladimir Tarasenko, and his shooting percentage is up to 15.8% all the way from the 11.5% he shot last season.
But he scored 45 points last season. This year, he’s on pace to score just 27 points. The former 30-goal scorer was expected to soften the blow of the Senators’ loss of Alex DeBrincat via trade, but so far he hasn’t done so and his slow start has contributed to the Senators’ significant early-season struggles.
With Tarasenko, Claude Giroux Brady Tkachuk, Mathieu Joseph, and Drake Batherson standing in his way for offensive opportunities along the wings, it doesn’t look as though Kubalík has a clear path toward raising his stock in advance of a likely trip to the UFA market.
Warren Foegele, Edmonton Oilers
A 27-year-old career bottom-six winger, Foegele does a little bit of everything. He brings size, he brings defensive ability, and he has been a consistent offensive contributor with at least 10 goals and 20 points in each of the last four seasons.
Foegele has also shown some flashes of increased offensive potential, and under head coach Kris Knoblauch (his former OHL coach with the Erie Otters) he’s been placed in prime position to deliver increased offense. He’s currently playing alongside all-world center Leon Draisaitl on Edmonton’s second line, and has already scored seven goals and 20 points in 38 games
At one point, it looked as though Foegele might struggle to match his current $2.75MM cap hit on his next deal. Now, that looks to be almost a certainty. If he can continue at this scoring pace and the Oilers make the playoffs, he’ll be in prime position to supercharge his earning potential. The former OHL Playoff MVP has come up big in the postseason at the junior level, so if he does the same at the NHL level this spring he could find himself a massively in-demand free agent.
Jakub Vrána, St. Louis Blues
A tantalizing offensive talent who scored 25 goals and 52 points in just 69 games in his age-23 season, Vrána has had an extremely difficult time since he was traded by the Washington Capitals to Detroit. He’s struggled with injuries to a significant degree, and also missed time after entering the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program. He eventually found himself traded to the Blues, and even cleared waivers on multiple occasions.
His waiver clearances are likely more about his $5.25MM cap hit than his talent, though, and with Vrána’s offensive pedigree, there is likely to still be interest in him on the free agent market. He’s scored six points in 21 games this season for the Blues, but is now a healthy scratch.
Vrána is so skilled that better points production could very well come if he can find a way to climb the depth chart of new head coach Drew Bannister. A particularly hot stretch to close out the year could give more confidence to Vrána’s potential free agent suitors that he remains the same player who put together back-to-back 20-plus goal seasons in his early twenties.
Tomáš Tatar, Seattle Kraken
Tatar has been a remarkably consistent offensive player throughout his NHL career, with a generally agreed-upon floor of around 20 goals and 45 points and the ability to score as many as 61 points in just 68 games in the right circumstances. Unfortunately for Tatar, what has also been consistent throughout his NHL career is how his normally solid offensive production absolutely craters in the postseason. While Tatar scores at a 0.57 points-per-game rate in the regular season, his points-per-game in playoff action is just 0.25.
Now 33 years old, teams are less likely to view Tatar’s playoff struggles as a matter of poor luck and a trend that can be broken, and as a result Tatar had weaker-than-expected free agent interest this past offseason. In addition, he struggled to make his mark in Colorado and was eventually traded to Seattle for a conditional fifth-round pick. He’s scored a bit better in Seattle and is now placed on the team’s first line alongside Jordan Eberle and Matthew Beniers, which is a massive opportunity for him.
His stock is undoubtedly down at this point, but if he can remain on that top line and help guide the Kraken back to the playoffs, he’d therefore have the opportunity to dramatically change the narrative surrounding him with the first productive playoff run of his career
Mike Hoffman, San Jose Sharks
With each day that passes, it looks increasingly likely that the $4.5MM AAV contract Hoffman signed with the Montreal Canadiens in the summer of 2021 will end up Hoffman’s last significant free agent cash-in. That’s not to say there won’t be a market for the five-time 25-goal scorer in the summer, it’s just that Hoffman’s performance since leaving the offensively-supercharged Florida Panthers has diminished his stock leaguewide.
A natural sniper, Hoffman floundered in the Canadiens’ offensive environment, putting together back-to-back seasons of about 15 goals and 35 points. Those are hardly poor totals, but they’re also not ideal ones for a player making Hoffman’s cap hit and playing Hoffman’s dose of minutes. In other words, a team is likely to expect a little more when they invest the way the Canadiens invested in Hoffman, both in terms of dollars and in terms of offensive opportunities.
So far this season, being on such a poor San Jose team has not helped him very much. While he’s still on pace to score 17 goals in a full season, he’s built the reputation over the last few years as something of an “empty calorie” scorer, meaning his box score numbers are there, but his overall on-ice impact isn’t translating to meaningful team success. He’ll be hard-pressed to shed that tag as a Shark, but if he can land on a playoff contender in need of scoring at the deadline (which could be difficult due to his cap hit) he could very well raise his stock significantly with some big goals down the stretch.
Michael Amadio, Vegas Golden Knights
After spending most of his pro career as a depth forward, one might have thought that 2022-23 would be the maximum type of breakout campaign Amadio could author. After all, he scored 16 goals, a career-high 27 points, and added 10 points in 16 games en route to a Stanley Cup championship in his very first playoff run.
But this season, Amadio is scoring at an even higher rate. He’s on pace to score 35 points in the full season, and is now even showing some positional versatility as he’s had games slotted in as the Golden Knights’ fourth-line center. Set to hit the open market at the age of 28, Amadio has been a developmental success story for the Golden Knights, and other teams are in position to benefit from their work by signing Amadio this summer. His stock soared last season, and it’s even higher 39 games into this campaign.
Yakov Trenin, Nashville Predators
Trenin will turn 27 on Saturday, and will likely be one of the more interesting left wingers to monitor on the free agent market not considered a top-six talent. The passionate Russian power forward had a breakout season in 2021-22, scoring 17 goals. He followed that up with 12 goals last season, and is now on pace for 15 goals this year.
He brings a ton of physicality and energy to a fourth-line role alongside his goal-scoring ability, and he has even become a reliable penalty killer to boot. He’s currently making $1.7MM against the cap, but he earned that as a restricted free agent exclusively negotiating with the Predators. On the open market, the unique offering Trenin brings to the table could generate quite a bit of interest.
Jordan Martinook, Carolina Hurricanes
Like some other players on this list, Martinook is coming off of a season that looks increasingly like it would have been the ideal time for him to hit free agency. In 2022-23, Martinook scored a career-high 34 points, averaged a career-high 15:38 time-on-ice per game, landed on a Selke Trophy ballot for the first time in his career, and helped the Hurricanes on a run to the Eastern Conference Final.
This season, his ice time average has declined almost a full minute, and his work on the team’s penalty kill is no longer resulting in an elite unit: they were second-ranked last season and rank ninth this season. Additionally, Martinook is on pace to score six goals and 24 points, which is a far cry from 13 goals and 34 points. He’ll want to have a strong, increasingly productive second half to raise his stock back up.
Tanner Pearson, Montreal Canadiens
Before an injury sidelined him, the 31-year-old Pearson was putting together a decent bounce-back year with the Canadiens. As a key veteran voice on an exceedingly young roster, Pearson is in a position to showcase his off-ice value as an experienced, Stanley Cup-winning veteran alongside his rediscovered on-ice value.
It’s too early to determine whether his production will fall in line with where it was when he was last healthy (34 points in 68 games in 2021-22) but early indications are that he’s not quite there yet. He’s scored eight points in 27 games for the Canadiens, although he’s playing on a team not exactly known for setting the world on fire offensively. More than anything else, the best thing Pearson can do for his free agent stock is get healthy and remain reasonably productive in a bottom-six role in Montreal.
William Carrier, Vegas Golden Knights
Although Carrier has played around his career standard in 2023-24, it’s looking increasingly like last summer would have been the ideal time for Carrier to hit free agency. The speedy, physical bottom-six left winger had just contributed to the Golden Knights’ first-ever Stanley Cup championship, and he had set a career-high in goals with 16 along the way.
The market for players who combine speed, size, and goal-scoring ability is often robust, and Carrier would have likely had an exceedingly active market waiting for him had he hit free agency last summer. This season, while still strong, has not had the same momentum for Carrier. A big playoff run can change things, but so far Carrier’s stock is back to where it has been for much of his career rather than at a peak position.
Dakota Joshua, Vancouver Canucks
The big Ohio Sate product was a savvy signing by the Canucks in the summer of 2022, as they bet Joshua’s playoff breakout of 15 points in 18 games was a sign of an NHL future. He rewarded their gamble last season by showing he could hang at the NHL level. He played in 79 games and scored 11 goals and 23 points. For the first time since leaving the Buckeyes and college hockey, Joshua went an entire season without playing in a minor league.
So far this season, just as the Canucks have soared to the top of the Pacific Division Joshua has soared to even greater NHL heights. He’s already registered 11 goals and 20 points this season, which puts him on pace to score 22 goals and 40 points in a full 82-game schedule.
That would be an incredible return on investment for Vancouver, who owe him just a $825k cap hit for the season. It would also be an incredible rise in standing for Joshua, who would enter the free agent market on an extremely strong footing.
If he hits the open market, Joshua will be a 28-year-old forward who can play both center and left wing. If he keeps up his current pace, he’ll be someone who has just scored 22 goals, and 40 points, and could conceivably be just scratching the surface of his NHL prime.
If he can keep this up and go on a solid playoff run on the massive stage a success-starved playoff market provides, Joshua could end up one of the biggest winners in the 2024 free agent class.
Zemgus Girgensons, Buffalo Sabres
Now 30 years old with nearly 650 NHL games under his belt, Girgensons has clearly established himself as a known quantity in the NHL. He’s a long way from scoring 15 goals and representing the Sabres at the All-Star game, but he’s nonetheless a useful bottom-six defensive specialist with some penalty-killing utility.
That’s the role he’s played with the Sabres for much of his career, and although the Sabres have not had team success at all during his career, Girgensons has remained consistent.
The owner of a $2.5MM AAV contract, Girgensons’ current scoring pace makes it unlikely he’ll match that number in free agency. After scoring 10 goals and 18 points in two consecutive seasons, Girgensons has yet to register a single assist this year. His three points in 25 games put him on pace for a career-low offensive output, and the injury that kept him out for almost the entire month of December hurt his momentum.
Tyler Motte, Tampa Bay Lightning
As a capable, hard-working bottom-six winger on some strong New York Rangers teams, Motte had reportedly expected stronger free agent interest than he ended up receiving in back-to-back offseasons. While he hasn’t scored much at the NHL level, Motte’s hope was likely that his exemplary work on some playoff-contending teams would make him a premium option for a team looking to add to their bottom-six forward group. We’ve seen light-scoring bottom-sixers get hefty long-term contracts in the past, and Motte saw an example of this firsthand playing alongside Barclay Goodrow with the Rangers.
Goodrow was signed to a long-term $3.64MM AAV deal after scoring just 20 points for the Tampa Bay Lightning, in large part due to how effectively he played his bottom-six role on a team that won back-to-back Stanley Cups. Motte was likely hoping to follow that blueprint in New York, and this past season he took that comparable a step forward by signing with the team Goodrow earned his contract on: Tampa Bay. Motte’s role in Tampa is similar to what it has been in New York and Ottawa: he’s a fourth-liner trusted to play defense-first minutes with a steady diet of penalty-killing ice time as well.
Currently, Motte is slotting in as a center on Tampa’s third line next to rookie Gage Goncalves and veteran Conor Sheary. Motte has been a left winger first and foremost in prior trips to free agency, so showing the versatility to play center certainly helps his stock entering another free-agent foray. But seeing as the Lightning have struggled as a team this season compared to prior years, Motte may not end up playing in the deep playoff run that is so crucial for bottom-sixers hoping to maximize their free agent earnings.
Ryan Lomberg, Florida Panthers
A 29-year-old undrafted player, Lomberg presents an interesting free agent case. Although he stands just five-foot-nine, 185 pounds, Lomberg is one of the Panthers’ more physical players. He’s a genuine agitator, someone who is expected to get in his opponents’ faces and attempt to get under his opponents’ skin. A hard-working, relentless bottom-sixer who clawed his way up from the ECHL to the NHL, Lomberg’s ice time has declined from where it was last season. That’s come alongside an offensive decline, as Lomberg scored 12 goals and 20 points last year but only has two goals and three points this year.
If Lomberg can’t get his offense back on track, he faces a tough task attempting to earn a major pay raise over his current $800k cap hit. That being said, even with his stock down a little he seems to have at least done enough to earn himself another one-way contract, especially if his popularity among many Panthers fans is considered.
Andrew Cogliano, Colorado Avalanche
Now with over 1,250 games of NHL experience, Cogliano’s NHL value is quite clear. Beyond age-related decline setting in to a severe degree, there doesn’t appear to be much that Cogliano could do to materially impact his free agent stock. He’s still a key penalty killer on a contending Avalanche team, and while their penalty kill was only average last season it’s been notably stronger so far in 2023-24.
Cogliano’s ice time has remained steady, his role is relatively unchanged as a bottom-six penalty killer, and his offense has remained almost exactly in line with the last two years of his career. Cogliano earned a one-way $825k contract extension last year, and he’s well on his way to earning a repeat deal for 2024-25 should he decide to continue his career.
Others Of Note
Pat Maroon, Minnesota Wild
Set to turn 36 in April, Maroon looked to be in serious decline just one year ago. The three-time Stanley Cup champion had gone from 11 goals and 27 points in 2021-22 to just five goals and 14 points in 2022-23. As a result, the Lightning dealt Maroon to the Minnesota Wild, and the Wild have reaped the benefits of Maroon’s strong start to his platform year. He’s already matched his point total from last season in just 40 games, and Maroon’s long-respected locker-room value has been a big help for a Wild team that has gone through some serious early-season adversity.
If Maroon’s 2022-23 campaign at one point looked to be a clear sign that his time in the NHL was coming to an end, 2023-24 has served as proof that Maroon still has gas left in the tank to contribute at the game’s highest level.
Matt Martin, New York Islanders
A veteran grinder inching ever closer to his 1,000th game, it’s relatively difficult for Martin’s free agent stock to fluctuate heavily. He fills a highly specific role at the NHL level: a fourth-line grinder who specializes in racking up hits. Now 34 years old, Martin isn’t as quick as he once was and his role in New York has declined slightly. He’s still playing in his same spot on the team’s fourth line alongside Casey Cizikas and Cal Clutterbuck, it’s just the fourth line as a whole plays a few less minutes per game than they have in the past.
Martin is making $1.5MM against the cap this season, and it’s difficult to see him matching that number in free agency once again outside of highly specific circumstances, the same type of circumstances that exist for him in New York.
Mattias Janmark, Edmonton Oilers
Now in his second season with the Edmonton Oilers, Janmark has settled into a pretty clear role. Standing six-foot-two, 205 pounds the 31-year-old brings size, a little bit of physicality, and sporadic scoring to a team’s third or fourth line. He scored 25 points in back-to-back seasons, though his production is down a bit this season. He has only one goal and five points in 28 games, and his 3.3% shooting percentage so far this season is certainly not helping him.
That being said, Janmark’s ice time has remained relatively steady in the low teens of minutes, and he’s still a regular penalty killer on a league-average unit. There’s value in a player who can capably handle that sort of role, especially in one who does it with 66 games of postseason experience. With the Oilers now looking likelier and likelier to make the playoffs after a brutal start, Janmark’s stock can only rise from here.
Eric Robinson, Buffalo Sabres
Robinson has had some good luck so far this season. The six-foot-two undrafted grinder was playing in his first AHL games since 2019-20 before a trade landed him with the Sabres, and handed him a clearer path to regular NHL ice time as a result. Robinson’s role in Buffalo has been right in line with the role he’s played throughout his NHL career: he skates on a fourth line and contributes as a secondary penalty killer, although he does get healthy scratched at times, which is not something that happened with a lot of frequency as recently as last season.
With a career-best total of 12 goals last season, Robinson proved to some degree that he has what it takes to stick in the NHL as a fourth-line winger. The fact that Robinson was traded for a conditional seventh-round pick likely has more to do with his $1.6MM cap hit than his true on-ice value, and his five points in 11 games with the Sabres so far suggests he can still play. But in order to have the best chance of earning a solid one-way contract to play on an NHL fourth line next season, Robinson will want to re-enter Sabres head coach Don Granato’s regular lineup picture and avoid as much time in the press box as possible.
Kiefer Sherwood, Nashville Predators
Playing on a one-year, league-minimum deal, Sherwood has been offered every chance to have a platform year to remember in Nashville. The former AHL star has played in 35 of the Predators’ 41 total games, and he is just two points off his offensive career highs, already having scored five goals and 11 points.
That being said, while the 28-year-old is nearing some personal bests, it’s not as though he’s setting the world on fire.
As an offense-first player who receives only sporadic special teams usage, it’s a little difficult to parse out where Sherwood’s long-term NHL future lies.
Is he capable of producing enough to stick on a scoring line? Does he bring enough defensively to be worth signing for a role on a shutdown line? Sherwood is hard-working, energetic, and has the offensive skill to at the very least put together extremely productive seasons in the AHL.
Players like that are typically in the high-end two-way deal / relatively cheap one-way deal territory. Sherwood is playing this year on a one-year league minimum contract, and he could very well earn another contract in that range. Although he’ll definitely want to snap his streak of eight consecutive games without a point sooner rather than later, something that could be a challenge since he’s currently outside Nashville’s regular lineup looking in.
Oskar Lindblom, San Jose Sharks
There’s no sugarcoating it: Lindblom’s 2023-24 has been a struggle. He’s now in the AHL for the first time since 2017-18, he’s battled injuries, and has only produced three points in 10 AHL games. At the moment, it would take a dramatic uptick in form in order for Lindblom to earn a one-way contract for next season, let alone a deal that matches the $2.5MM AAV he’s owed on his expiring contract.
The 2020-21 Bill Masterton Trophy winner is still just 27 years old and was once an intriguing power forward prospect, someone who put up 17 goals and 33 points in his rookie season. But since his well-documented health issues sprung up, Lindblom has struggled to regain that form, and as a result, Lindblom’s free agency next summer is difficult to predict.
It would be no surprise to see him earn another shot in the NHL, just as it would also not be a massive shock to see Lindblom return to his native Sweden to play in the SHL if his current struggles continue. When Lindblom was last in the SHL he starred for Brynäs IF, scoring 61 points in 72 combined regular-season and playoff games.
Max Willman, New Jersey Devils
The 28-year-old former Boston University Terrier has had a positive season for his career trajectory so far. After working his way up from the ECHL to the NHL in the Philadelphia Flyers organization, Willman signed with the Devils this past summer to serve as some high-level depth for the team’s forward corps.
Willman’s career-high in scoring at the AHL level is 23 points, and although he managed 19 points in 34 AHL contests in 2021-22, his form last season indicated that he could be the type of player who would play a primarily defensive role and struggle to produce offense regardless of what level he played. So far, Willman’s 2023-24 has eliminated any thought that Willman would end up that sort of forward. He’s already up to 16 points in 20 AHL games, and his form there has earned him five contests in the NHL with the Devils.
If Willman continues his current level of play over the course of a full season, it will likely meaningfully advance him in the eyes of other teams. He’s on pace to fly past his career highs in AHL offensive production, and the NHL games he receives would reinforce the impression that he’s a high-end AHLer/reliable depth NHL forward. Most players who have reached that leaguewide reputation earn more than the $135k AHL salary Willman is owed this season, so his 2023-24 form could very well earn Willman a bump up to a higher AHL pay bracket.
Radim Zohorna, Pittsburgh Penguins
Standing six-foot-six, 220 pounds, Zohorna possesses the exact kind of physical traits NHL teams covet. Unfortunately for him, though, he hasn’t been able to make the most of those athletic tools in North America. As a result, he nears the mid-way point of his free agency platform year on uneven ground.
On one hand, this season has been a positive for Zohorna. He’s back in the NHL after spending all but eight games of 2022-23 in the AHL, and he’s already scored four goals and seven points for the Penguins. When he’s not in the press box as a healthy scratch, Zohorna receives more than 10 minutes of ice time per night and has even gotten looks on the power play.
But on the other hand, Zohorna’s 2023-24 has served as further confirmation of his limits as an NHLer. Zohorna is currently a healthy scratch after seeing his role in head coach Mike Sullivan’s lineup steadily decline, and it’s unclear when he’ll get the chance to dress again for the Penguins. As a result, it’s difficult to at the moment classify Zohorna’s stock as anything but down, at least until he can return to the regular lineup fold in Pittsburgh.
Liam O’Brien, Arizona Coyotes
O’Brien, 29, fills a very specific niche on this upcoming summer’s free agent market. If a team needs grit, toughness, and someone who can stick up for teammates by dropping the gloves, that team should be interested in O’Brien. He’s on pace to register a whopping 187 penalty minutes for the Coyotes this season, alongside his 16-point 82-game scoring pace. O’Brien notched 114 penalty minutes in just 56 games last season, and is one of the more ferocious fighters in the entire NHL.
This season, O’Brien’s ice time has declined a full minute on average per game, but on the flip side of that, he’s not been healthy scratched on nearly as regular a basis. Seeing as teams place significant value on every last available roster spot and cap dollar available to them, it’s fair to wonder whether signing a player such as O’Brien would be a worthy use of your team’s resources. There are teams out there that are looking for exactly what O’Brien offers, though, and it’s with those clubs that he has the highest upside on the open market in the summer.
Brendan Lemieux, Carolina Hurricanes
Now 27 years old, it’s clear Lemieux isn’t going to be the kind of NHL player the Buffalo Sabres were originally hoping he’d become when they selected him 31st overall at the 2014 draft. He’s still carved out an NHL career for himself, though, even if it’s not the one many might have originally imagined for the former Barrie Colts star. Lemieux has played in nearly 300 career NHL games, and has racked up over 500 penalty minutes, with a career-high of 111 in a single season.
Lemieux is what he is, which is an effective agitator. He plays hard, physical hockey and attempts to get under the skin of opposing players. His style has landed him in hot water with the NHL’s Department of Player Safety in the past, though it’s also landed him an NHL contract each and every year of his pro career. So far in Carolina, it’s been more of the same for Lemieux. He was a reserve player for both the Los Angeles Kings and Philadelphia Flyers last season, and is playing in a similar role for Carolina this year. He spent most of November as a healthy scratch and is averaging just over seven minutes of ice time per night, entirely at even strength.
The margins for Lemieux to provide positive on-ice value to an NHL team are relatively small, and Lemieux’s usage and his performance in Carolina so far in 2023-24 has thus far confirmed that fact. At this point, it’s an open question as to whether there will be a market for Lemieux’s services on a one-year deal this upcoming summer.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
