Free Agent Stock Watch 2022

With the new year upon us, the NHL season is in full swing. Teams are jockeying for playoff position, and many players with expiring contracts across the NHL are playing games that could ultimately determine what type of payday they might receive in the summer.

In a multi-part series, we’ll take a look at each position group of the upcoming free agent class, and do a rundown on how those upcoming unrestricted free agents have performed this year. Which players have increased their odds of landing a massive contract? Which players have potentially hurt their earning potential with their play? We’ll break it all down here.

The Marquee Names

Frederik Andersen, Carolina Hurricanes

Andersen didn’t have the best platform year heading into his last trip to unrestricted free agency two years ago. The Danish netminder lost the starting role on the Toronto Maple Leafs to Jack Campbell, relinquishing a number-one slot he’d held tightly to for four straight seasons.

Andersen had posted a .909 save percentage in 2019-20, and had an .895 in his final year in Toronto, the first time in his professional career that his save percentage dropped below .900. Past the age of 30, he wasn’t nearly the type of sure-fire investment he had once seemed to be, and he settled for a relatively modest two-year $4.5MM AAV guarantee from the Carolina Hurricanes.

In his first year in Carolina, Andersen completely flipped the narrative surrounding his career trend. He was no longer a declining asset, he was now a two-time Jennings trophy winner who may have been a contender for the Vezina trophy had Igor Shesterkin not authored the most impressive season by a goaltender since Carey Price’s Hart Trophy-winning campaign.

In 52 games played Andersen went 35-14-3 with a 2.17 goals-against-average and a .922 save percentage. Although some might attribute such impressive success to the fact that the Hurricanes have one of the NHL’s best defenses, Andersen still ranked near the top of the league in goals saved above expected, meaning he was making more than just the saves any goalie would be expected to make.

This season, Andersen hasn’t had as much success thanks to an injury that’s knocked him out for quite a while. He has just a .903 save percentage in 10 games played, but that sample size isn’t large enough to make any larger claims about a decline from last season’s impressive form.

If Andersen hits the open market, he’ll do so in far better standing than he was two years ago, and his next contract is likely to reflect that.

Tristan Jarry, Pittsburgh Penguins

Like Andersen, Jarry was in a shaky place after the 2020-21 season. That year was his first as the unquestioned starter in Pittsburgh, and although he was impressive at times in the regular season, he lacked consistency.

In addition to that up-and-down regular season, Jarry made several significant mistakes in the Penguins’ playoff series against the New York Islanders, mistakes that were a major reason why the Islanders were able to eliminate Pittsburgh. As a result, there were serious questions as to whether the Penguins could afford to trust Jarry as the goaltender to carry them through the twilight years Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang’s careers.

Jarry has answered those questions resoundingly with his performance in these past two seasons, though. Last year he played 58 games and posted a .919 save percentage, a performance that earned him one Vezina Trophy vote.

An unfortunate late injury kept him from playing a major role in the Penguins’ brief playoff run, although one could certainly make the case that with a healthy Jarry, the Penguins would have likely prevailed over the Rangers. The Rangers took seven games to eliminate Pittsburgh, despite the Penguins being backstopped by third-stringer Louis Domingue for a significant portion of the series.

Had he not lost time due to injury, it’s possible Jarry would have shown the Penguins organization that his ability to play on hockey’s biggest stage wouldn’t be defined by the mistakes he made in the series against the Islanders. But the injury cost him that chance, although he will get another opportunity if the Penguins make the playoffs.

Jarry, who will turn 28 in April, is in a strong position heading into the expiry of his contract. A deep playoff run could potentially vault him above Andersen to the top of this free agent class.

The Solid Contributors

Cam Talbot, Ottawa Senators

Just a year ago, Talbot looked to have found a nice landing spot as a starter with the Minnesota Wild. Then the team acquired Vezina Trophy winner Marc-Andre Fleury, and, after an offseason saga not lacking in drama, Talbot was off to Ottawa.

With the Senators, Talbot has performed solidly, although perhaps not quite to the standard he set in Minnesota (or all the way back in 2016-17, when he was a workhorse starter for the Edmonton Oilers.) Talbot has posted a .906 save percentage in 24 games played, and has had some hot stretches and some games he’d likely want to have back.

For example, from December 10th to December 27th, Talbot went 5-1-1 with a .927 save percentage. Since that point, in his last four games, Talbot has gone 1-3 with an .854 save percentage. While judging a goalie by his hot and cold stretches is always going to yield a semblance of inconsistency, the reality is Talbot has not provided the Senators with the type of goaltending they’d need to emerge as a playoff contender.

Over the course of his full tenure so far in Ottawa, Talbot has been adequate, but nothing more. At 35 years old, the market for solid-if-unimpressive goaltenders isn’t known to be robust, so Talbot may not receive the type of deal he was lined up for just a year ago. But for a team looking to stabilize their situation in the crease and add an experienced veteran, Talbot is a highly respectable option.

Martin Jones, Seattle Kraken

Jones’ season isn’t the easiest to explain. His career path has been a bit of a rollercoaster, as he’s gone from promising young Sharks starter to underperforming salary cap anchor, to unexciting backup with the Philadelphia Flyers. Last summer, Jones signed a one-year deal with the Seattle Kraken after the team’s presumptive backup goalie, Chris Driedger, went down with a major injury.

Jones has taken the opportunity afforded to him in Seattle and run with it, seizing the role of number-one goalie from Philipp Grubauer. He’s played in 31 games to Grubauer’s 14, and has posted an extremely impressive 21-5-3 record, bolstered by back-to-back shutouts against Montreal and Boston.

But despite all that good news, Jones’ save percentage remains below .900. Whether that says more about Jones’ performance or the value of using save percentage as a be-all-end-all metric to evaluate goalie performance is for others to decide, but the fact remains that goalies posting below .900 save percentages aren’t typically hot commodities in free agency, especially when those goalies haven’t been above .900 in a half-decade.

That’s the battle Jones could be fighting if his numbers remain where they currently are, although given his current performance there’s strong reason to believe they’ll improve. Given his age and inconsistent track record, it’s difficult to imagine any team investing in Jones on a long-term basis with an expensive average annual value.

But if a team is hoping Jones’ breakout performance can continue on their roster, it’s possible Jones could net a nice raise from the $2MM he’s making this season.

James Reimer, San Jose Sharks

Jones’ replacement in San Jose, James Reimer, has long been a respected veteran option for NHL teams looking to add a tandem netminder.

Last season, Reimer set a career-high in games played, appearing in 48 contests and posting a .911 save percentage and a 2.90 goals-against-average.

Reimer’s performance is made all the more impressive by the fact that the Sharks defense he was playing behind was among the NHL’s weaker units.

Reimer has been particularly good on the penalty kill in San Jose, but this season he’s seen his overall numbers decline sharply.

He’s at an .895 save percentage now and has an .879 since returning from injury on December 13th. If his numbers remain around this range, let alone get worse, Reimer will likely go from being one of the better tandem options on the open market to more of a bounce-back candidate.

Semyon Varlamov, New York Islanders

As Ilya Sorokin has taken the reins on Long Island and become one of the NHL’s top netminders, Varlamov has faded somewhat from where he once was. The Russian earned a first-place Vezina Trophy vote in 2020-21, posting a highly impressive .929 save percentage in 36 games.

Since that point, Varlamov has ceded his role as the Islanders’ number-one goalie to Sorokin, and his save percentage has declined from .920 and above to the low teens. Since he’ll be 35 years old when the market opens, it’s possible that teams now view Varlamov as more of a tandem or backup option than the slam-dunk starter he was just a short time ago.

Even so, it’s undeniable that Varlamov was seen as one of the NHL’s best goalies quite recently. If he’s able to be had at a more affordable price than some of the big-name goalies on the open market, signing Varlamov could pay major dividends. There’s risk to investing in any player getting into their mid-thirties, but there also is a precedent for goaltenders being able to play well even to the age of 40, as we saw with Mike Smith.

He may have to take a pay cut from the $5MM he’s making now, but Varlamov should have a solid market to consider should be be available on the open market in the summer.

Jonathan Quick, Los Angeles Kings

One of the more legendary playoff performers in modern NHL history, Quick’s performance in recent years has been highly uneven. In 2020-21, it looked as though Quick’s days as a number-one goalie were over, as Cal Petersen played in far more games than Quick and posted a far better save percentage.

Then last season, Petersen struggled and Quick re-took the starter’s crease, leading the Kings back to the playoffs with a 23-13-9 record, 2.59 goals-against-average, and .910 save percentage. It seemed Quick was back.

Now, this season, as the Kings have struggled as a whole in their own end, Quick’s numbers have taken a major hit. He’s rocking an .883 save percentage and ranks near the bottom of the NHL in MoneyPuck’s goals saved above expected metric.

Quick will turn 37 later this month, and with players his age it’s more likely that sharp declines in performance end up permanent, rather than temporary setbacks.

If there’s anything Quick has shown over the course of his storied career, it’s that people who bet against him will end up paying a high price. So knowing how well he’s played in the past, it’s impossible to write him off after a difficult 23-game start to this season. But if he keeps letting in goals at this rate everything is on the table.

Joonas Korpisalo, Columbus Blue Jackets

There are few netminders in the NHL who have been dealt a worse hand this season than Korpisalo. The Blue Jackets have been besieged by injuries, particularly on the blueline where they quickly lost franchise defenseman Zach Werenski to a long-term injury.

The severe struggles of Elvis Merzlikins have put even more pressure on Korpisalo to play well, and all things considered, he has done an admirable job tending the crease for one of the NHL’s worst teams.

Through 18 games Korpisalo has a .908 save percentage, one that is significantly higher than the .865 mark Merzlikins has posted in just about the same number of games. That .908 mark also represents a massive improvement from the save percentages he’s had in the last two years, including the nightmarish .877 he posted last season.

All things considered, there’s a lot for Korpisalo to be proud of in his performance this season. MoneyPuck’s work marks him as having a higher goals saved above expected than netminders such as Jarry, Vitek Vanecek, and Stuart Skinner, starters for teams that are likely to be in the playoffs.

Whether his impressive performance through 18 games will earn him a solid next contract is still a mystery, though. Korpisalo’s inconsistency looms large over any strong runs he has this year, and it could be difficult for interested clubs to justify a sizeable investment in a player with such a shaky track record.

But the struggles Korpisalo faced in the past are not something he can change now. All he can do is attempt to weather the storm the Blue Jackets have faced this season and play well in these adverse conditions. So far, he’s done exactly that, and his efforts won’t go unnoticed by other clubs.

Antti Raanta, Carolina Hurricanes

Raanta, now 33 years old, has settled into a comfortable role as a backup netminder in Carolina. Due to injuries to Andersen, the team’s starter, Raanta has been able to showcase his talent on a bigger stage than he’d likely anticipated, and under that microscope he’s impressed.

He posted a .922 save percentage in 13 playoff starts last season, a hugely impressive performance in a league that places major value on playoff goaltending. In the regular season, he went 15-5-4 with a .912 save percentage. This year, Raanta’s save percentage is down, but he’s still winning the Hurricanes hockey games and his 2.63 goals-against-average is only a minor decline from last year.

This decline in save percentage likely won’t be the largest factor working against Raanta on the open market, it’ll be his struggles to stay healthy. Raanta hasn’t started more than 32 games since 2017-18, and hasn’t been able to stay consistently healthy throughout his NHL career.

When he does manage to get on the ice, he’s shown he can be one of the better backups in the NHL, capable of even providing impressive performances on hockey’s biggest stages. But one of the best things a backup goaltender can provide, beyond quality performances, is reliability and consistent availability.

That’s been Raanta’s biggest weakness in his NHL career, and despite solid performances in Carolina it’ll likely be what costs him in his return to unrestricted free agency.

The Role Players

Adin Hill, Vegas Golden Knights

In the summer of 2021, the Sharks surrendered a second-round draft choice in order to acquire Hill from the Arizona Coyotes. Yet just a year later, they traded him to Vegas for a fourth-rounder. Hill never quite found his footing in San Jose, posting a .906 save percentage in 22 starts.

He had some strong performances, but injuries took their toll and by the end of the year the Sharks made the choice to look elsewhere to fill out their crease. In Vegas, Hill’s numbers are remarkably similar to what he posted in San Jose, only he’s already at 15 starts this season, just seven away from his total from the entirety of 2021-22.

By staying healthy, Hill has enhanced his value. He’ll be 27 if he hits the open market in the summer, and if he can keep up his sound run of health he’ll be a quality option for a team looking to add a younger option to their crease.

Kevin Lankinen, Nashville Predators

After an impressive rookie season that resulted in him picking up some down-ballot Calder Trophy votes, Lankinen had a nightmarish 2021-22, his save percentage crashing from .909 to .891 and his goals-against-average ballooning from 3.01 to 3.50.

That decline led to his departure from Chicago, which paved the way for him to sign in Nashville to be Juuse Saros’ backup. In a more minor role than the one he shouldered with the Blackhawks, Lankinen has thrived.

He’s posted a .918 save percentage in 10 games, and his performances have been a moderate help toward the Predators’ efforts to remain in the hunt for a Wild Card spot. That ten-game sample size is, of course, not enough to make any long-term decisions about Lankinen’s future.

But what it does indicate is that Lankinen is perhaps better suited to perform well in a role as a true backup, rather than as the number-one goalie he was in his rookie year or the tandem netminder he was last season. Lankinen is earning $1.5MM against the cap this season, and if he can keep up his performances for a full year, he’ll get a pay raise as one of the better backups on the market in the summer.

Alex Nedeljkovic, Detroit Red Wings

The Hurricanes made a somewhat controversial decision in the 2021 offseason, trading Nedeljkovic, a Calder Trophy finalist and goalie they had spent several years developing, rather than give him the contract he felt he’d earned as a restricted free agent.

The Red Wings were happy to pounce on a still-young goalie who had posted a .932 save percentage that year, but it’s fair to say at this point that the Hurricanes’ choice to go with Andersen over Nedeljkovic was the right one.

While Andersen became a Vezina Trophy contender in Carolina, Nedeljkovic struggled in Detroit. On a team far weaker than what he’d played behind in Carolina, Nedeljkovic’s numbers declined, and he finished 2021-22 with a .901 save percentage through 52 starts.

Nedeljkovic’s lack of size means he relies more on his athleticism than other goalies, and on a team less capable of playing quality defense in front of him Nedeljkovic suffered. With an .880 save percentage this season in nine games played, Nedeljkovic finds himself battling with Magnus Hellberg for the right to back up Ville Husso.

Heading into free agency, it’s likely Nedeljkovic will be viewed as a bounce-back candidate rather than someone to invest in for a role where a team requires reliability and consistency.

Pheonix Copley, Los Angeles Kings

With only 45 NHL games to his name, Copley’s resume is far thinner than most of the goalies he’ll hit the open market with in the summer. Yet unlike many of the goalies with more extensive track records, Copley has performed well this season, posting a hugely impressive 12-2 record in 14 starts.

His actual performance hasn’t been all that flashy, but he’s given the Kings a chance to win in each night he’s played, which is something any team can appreciate.

Without a major track record, it’s difficult to imagine Copley having a massive market when his contract expires. But if he keeps winning like this, anything’s possible.

Others Of Note

Anthony Stolarz, Anaheim Ducks

After posting a rock-solid .917 save percentage in 28 games on a bad Duck’s team last year, Stolarz has declined to an .895 this season. Stolarz has proven all he can prove at the AHL level, meaning his floor in terms of role is as a team’s number-three goalie.

Whether he is signed to be a backup or as a competitive third-stringer could depend on how well he performs over the course of the rest of the season.

Alex Stalock, Chicago Blackhawks

Stalock has seemingly overcome the major health issues he faced in recent years and re-established himself as a legitimate NHL goaltender. That alone is worthy of celebrating. But Stalock’s actual performance this year makes his return to the ice all that more impressive.

On a team stripped for parts and built for the future, Stalock has posted a .918 save percentage in 14 games. MoneyPuck’s goals saved above expected stat ranks him in the upper portion of the NHL, ahead of some big-name players.

At 35 years old, it’s not particularly likely that Stalock has suddenly become an elite goaltender, despite his elite numbers. But what he’s done this year has definitely raised his stock leaguewide, and could earn him a raise on his next contract from the $750K he’s making this season.

Pictures courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

With the new year upon us, the NHL season is in full swing. Teams are jockeying for playoff position, and many players with expiring contracts across the NHL are playing games that could ultimately determine what type of payday they might receive in the summer.

In a multi-part series, we’ll take a look at each position group of the upcoming free agent class, and do a rundown on how those upcoming unrestricted free agents have performed this year. Which players have increased their odds of landing a massive contract? Which players have potentially hurt their earning potential with their play? We’ll break it all down here.

The Marquee Names

John Klingberg, Anaheim Ducks

If we travel back in time to just a year ago, there’d be no doubt that Klingberg would qualify as a “marquee name” for any free agent class. The Swedish blueliner had been an offensive force all season, and he finished the 2021-22 campaign with 47 points in 74 games.

Klingberg had a long record of success as a pace-pushing, offensive defenseman with tons of power play value. He was just the second defenseman in Dallas Stars franchise history to cross the 60-point plateau when he did so in 2017-18, and his 67 points that season ranks just behind the legendary Sergei Zubov’s 2005-06 campaign as the best offensive season by a Stars defenseman in history.

But unfortunately for Klingberg, that sterling reputation as an offensive defenseman didn’t materialize into a major contract. With a slower-than-expected market for his services, Klingberg took a one-year, $7MM deal with the Anaheim Ducks.

He took that contract presumably in order to put forth a productive season and re-enter the market next summer, as many had projected 2023 to be the year where the salary cap would finally meaningfully rise once again.

Things haven’t gone according to that plan, to say the least. Not only is the salary cap potentially slated to stay flat for another summer, but Klingberg is also mired in the least productive offensive season of his NHL career. He has scored just 13 points in 35 games, and the Ducks power play he was acquired to rehabilitate currently ranks as the second-worst in the NHL.

As a result, Klingberg’s stock heading into another trip to unrestricted free agency has taken a nosedive. There is potential for redemption, though, as Klingberg remains a likely candidate to be traded to a contending team in the coming months.

If Klingberg gets traded to a contender and plays well for his new team (including hopefully a productive playoff run) that could go a long way toward rehabilitating his stock and landing him a lucrative new contract.

The Solid Contributors

Nick Jensen, Washington Capitals

Stylistically, Jensen is about as far away from Klingberg as one can get, and he is firmly in the running to be the top defensive defenseman available on the open market next summer.

Acquired by the Capitals at the 2019 trade deadline, Jensen has been a high-quality blueliner for Washington, providing stabilizing defensive play at their back end. The Minnesota native is now 32 years old and took a while to reach the NHL. He was a 2009 fifth-round pick and made his NHL debut more than a half-decade after being drafted.

Since breaking into the NHL in 2016-17, Jensen has developed himself into a valuable top-four piece. He’s currently slotted on the Capitals’ top pairing next to fellow pending free agent Dmitry Orlov and is averaging nearly 21 minutes of ice time per night.

Jensen’s defensive play is his calling card, and he leads the Capitals in short-handed ice time, helping Washington’s penalty kill to a top-ten ranking leaguewide this season.

While offense isn’t what he’s getting his minutes to provide, the 19 points in 44 games he’s produced this season is certainly appreciated by coach Peter Laviolette.

The total package Jensen offers is one that is likely to garner extensive interest should he hit the open market. While his age may keep him from earning as long of a deal as he might like, blueliners who are as good in their own end and can weather as difficult minutes as Jensen does don’t grow on trees.

He’ll be a coveted option on the market should he be allowed to walk by the Capitals, and his play so far this season has certainly helped.

Damon Severson, New Jersey Devils

On paper, Severson is having a disappointing season so far this year. He scored 46 points last season and played a whopping 23:36 per night. This year, he’s averaging under 20 minutes a night and is only on pace to score 21 points.

But before dismissing Severson’s stock as on a major decline, additional context must be added to his profile. The Devils have added significant defensive talent in recent offseasons, and the additions of Ryan Graves, Jonas Siegenthaler, and John Marino have meant that the team doesn’t need to rely on Severson as extensively as they once did.

Additionally, the addition of Dougie Hamilton (who is now healthy after suffering an injury-plagued debut season for the Devils) has meant Severson’s impact on the team’s power play has waned.

But despite the fact that Severson is no longer the Devils’ unquestioned top defenseman, he’s still managed to play well. His offensive points production is down, but he’s still managing to generate his fair share of chances from the back end, and is still moving the puck well.

Defensively, Severson has played a supporting role on a penalty kill that is one of the better units in the NHL. He’s not a stalwart defensive force like Siegenthaler is, but he’s definitely a capable defender in his own right.

The balanced two-way value Severson provides the Devils is something any team in the NHL could use, and his ability to play higher up in the lineup if needed will help him on the open market.

While he likely won’t receive the type of contract next summer that he would have gotten had he repeated his 46-point, 23-plus minutes per night performance, he’s still lined up to receive a nice contract from a defense-needy team.

Matt Dumba, Minnesota Wild

The subject of intense trade rumors for the past several seasons, Dumba is on an expiring contract and set to potentially hit unrestricted free agency for the first time in his career.

He’ll be 29 when he hits free agency, and he’s in a bit of an odd place. On one hand, leaguewide reputation is rock-solid.

The 2020 King Clancy Memorial Trophy winner has averaged over 21 minutes of ice time per night every season since he was 22 years old and has been a consistent top-four presence on Wild teams that have missed the playoffs just twice since he made his NHL debut.

On the other hand, it’s difficult to ignore signs that Dumba’s reputation isn’t totally aligned with the on-ice value he provides.

While the energy he brings to defense is undoubtedly valuable and the minutes he consistently handles are undoubtedly difficult, his on-ice results have been uneven.

Dumba’s role has declined since last season, and his offensive production isn’t where it once was. He’s scored just 11 points in 40 games this season, and he hasn’t reached 30 points in quite a few seasons.

He’s not the 50-point defenseman he once appeared to be in 2017-18, and in the absence of major point production, his transitional ability and defensive play need to be at a high level to justify his $6MM price tag. It’s an open question as to whether the other areas of Dumba’s game are at that level.

But despite those question marks, Dumba is still a beloved professional who has made a major, positive impact on the Wild over the course of his career there.

The evaluation of defensemen across the league can vary significantly between teams, meaning there are likely to be a few teams very bullish on what Dumba can offer. But even so, it’s not difficult to see what Dumba has put forth this season and be left wanting a little more.

The Role Players

Scott Mayfield, New York Islanders

Mayfield is in his fifth season earning $1.45MM against the cap, a number that isn’t exactly an adequate reflection of the value he’s provided to the Islanders.

The former Denver Pioneer, now 30, has averaged around 20 minutes per night for the past few seasons and has been a key stay-at-home contributor for Islanders teams that made some deep playoff runs.

His offensive production won’t count for more than 20 points per year, although he has chipped in at some very important moments.

The defensive game is where Mayfield truly shines, though, and it’s where he’ll make his money on the open market. He leads all Islanders averaging over 3 minutes of short-handed time per night, and that puts him tied for 13th in the NHL in most average penalty-killing ice time.

Mayfield will be 31 at the start of next season, meaning he’s reaching the tail-end of his prime years. But teams have in the past shown they’re willing to pay for quality players into their thirties, and there’s no reason Mayfield should be any different. He’s been a legitimately valuable defensive difference-maker on Long Island.

Connor Clifton, Boston Bruins

The Bruins have been an absolute juggernaut so far this season, and their success as a team has been fueled by the individual successes of their players. Clifton, who will be 28 when the market opens next summer, is part of that equation.

The 2013 fifth-round pick has grown from part-timer to everyday piece in Boston, and is on the final year of a $1MM AAV dea that severely underpays him relative to the value he brings on the ice. Clifton has been a steady contributor on the Bruins’ third pairing, giving coach Jim Montgomery over 18 safe minutes each night, as well as nearly two minutes a night on the penalty kill.

The track record isn’t huge with Clifton, who has under 200 NHL games on his resume. Clifton’s record of offensive production is also thin, although his 12 points in 40 games this season are a career-high.

Helping the Bruins to a long playoff run would do great things for his potential to earn a nice deal on the open market, but even in the absence of postseason play Clifton has helped himself well in what has been a nice platform season.

Luke Schenn, Vancouver Canucks

Schenn, 33, hasn’t had the smoothest career track. The former Kelowna Rocket was the fifth-overall pick at the 2008 NHL draft, and never quite managed to live up to the lofty expectations placed on his shoulders as a top prospect in a hockey-mad market.

Even though he has largely been viewed as a disappointment relative to his draft position, Schenn is now just 97 games away from reaching the 1,000-game plateau. He’s also now a two-time Stanley Cup champion, and his play for the Canucks has done wonders to enhance his reputation league-wide.

In Vancouver, Schenn has gone from a number-six or seven defenseman to a true everyday contributor. He’s currently playing over 17 minutes a night for coach Bruce Boudreau, including nearly two minutes per night on the penalty kill.

Schenn’s agent, Ben Hankinson, took to Twitter last month to sing Schenn’s praises, perhaps giving us a look at what his pitch will be to teams in order to get the most lucrative possible contract for his client.

As he’s a 33-year-old physical defenseman with major tread on his tires, it’s fair to wonder if paying a sizeable chunk of change to Schenn is a wise investment for any team. But Schenn’s improvement in Vancouver is undeniable, and if he’s traded to a contending team and manages to put forth quality play on the major stage that is the Stanley Cup playoffs, anything’s possible.

Justin Holl, Toronto Maple Leafs

While Holl has been the subject of some significant criticism from the Toronto market in past seasons, he’s quietly played some quality hockey this year. He’s currently partnered with Maple Leafs number-one blueliner Morgan Rielly on the team’s top pairing, and is averaging over 21 minutes played per night.

Holl is on pace to set a career-high in minutes played, and he’s also averaging the most short-handed ice time on the Maple Leafs’ roster, playing in over three minutes on the penalty kill per game. The former Minnesota Gopher will turn 31 later this month and could leave the Maple Leafs, the only NHL team he’s ever played for, next summer.

He won’t be mistaken for a top-end defensive defenseman, but it’s difficult to say Holl has done anything but present improved play this season. If the Maple Leafs can finally vanquish the first-round demons that have plagued them for a half-decade, Holl’s standing going into unrestricted free agency could improve even more.

Radko Gudas, Florida Panthers

The days of Gudas being viewed as just a bruising enforcer defenseman are no more. While Gudas has retained his signature no-holds-barred physical style in Florida, he’s grown into a much more well-rounded blueliner during his time in South Florida.

Gudas’ average ice time has leaped up more than a full minute in Florida compared to how he was played in Washington and his later years in Philadelphia, and his play helped the Panthers go on an incredible run last season that was capped off by winning the President’s Trophy.

With just six points in 32 games and just 16 last season on the highest-scoring team of the cap era, it’s clear Gudas’ offense isn’t what keeps him in the lineup each night. But if a team is looking for a defensive defenseman who brings an intimidating edge, Gudas could be the most ferocious option on the market.

Trevor van Riemsdyk, Washington Capitals

Although he’s perhaps been a bit hidden in the shadow of his high-scoring, former top prospect older brother James van Riemsdyk, Trevor has become a quality NHLer in his own right.

He’s an undrafted player with 500 NHL games on his resume, and this season he’s been a rock on coach Laviolette’s back end. Paired with Jensen on the Capitals’ top penalty-killing unit, van Riemsdyk has helped the Capitals rank as one of the better shorthanded units in the NHL.

Public analytics models are quite bullish on van Riemsdyk’s work in his own end, and although reputation can sometimes drive a defenseman’s market value more than it likely should, van Riemsdyk’s name value is steadily increasing as the Capitals rise in the standings.

Frequent partner Erik Gustafsson has run wild thanks to the freedom afforded by van Riemsdyk’s sound defensive play, the Swedish blueliner’s 25 points in 43 games are not only a testament to his own on-ice improvement but also how well he’s played in tandem with his partner.

With his play this season, van Riemsdyk has put together a strong resume for any team seeking a quality stay-at-home defenseman to pair with a more offensively-inclined puck mover to consider.

Kevin Shattenkirk, Anaheim Ducks

Once a marquee name sitting atop an offseason free agent class, Shattenkirk has settled into a more low-key role since being bought out of his major contract by the New York Rangers.

After winning the Stanley Cup with Tampa Bay, Shattenkirk signed in Anaheim and has had an up-and-down tenure in Southern California.

A strong run on the power play led Shattenkirk to score a respectable 35 points last season, but other than that two of his three seasons as a Duck have been major disappointments. He’ll be 34 years old when the market opens, and he’s on pace to score just 20 points.

Although a trade to a contender could spark a return to form, it’s likely that Shattenkirk will hit the open market next summer in a significantly diminished position to where he was last summer.

Erik Johnson, Colorado Avalanche

A longtime leader on the Avalanche’s back end, Johnson finally won the first Stanley Cup of his career last summer. Once the Avalanche’s clear top defenseman, the emergence of Cale Makar, Devon Toews, and Samuel Girard has allowed Johnson to settle into a more suitable role as the team’s fourth or fifth defenseman, depending on the health of Bowen Byram.

In that role, Johnson has been solid. He’s given the Avalanche nearly 18 minutes per night and provided sound defensive play, some penalty killing, and some physicality in those minutes.

At this stage of his career, it doesn’t seem particularly likely that Johnson would choose to uproot his family and sign with another club after over a decade in Colorado. But given the challenge the Avalanche face under the salary cap, it’s likely that another team could be in a position to offer Johnson a more lucrative deal than what Colorado is poised to afford.

As a result, Johnson could have a difficult choice to make next summer. He’s made it clear he still belongs in the NHL despite the fact that he’ll turn 35 later this season, and his play has earned him another contract.

But if he wants to maximize his earnings on his new deal and minimize the decline in pay he’ll likely face after making $6MM against the cap for the past seven years, he may be forced to sign elsewhere.

Others Of Note

Travis Hamonic, Ottawa Senators

It was somewhat curious when the still-rebuilding Senators traded a third-round pick to the Canucks for Hamonic last season, but what that deal came to signify was an end to rebuilding and a return to attempting to contend for the playoffs in Ottawa.

Unfortunately for Ottawa, Hamonic’s addition hasn’t brought the Senators all that much closer to the playoffs, and now as a pending unrestricted free agent, his future seems cloudy. Playing largely with rookie defenseman/top prospect Jake Sanderson, Hamonic has had an uneven year.

There are some positive aspects to the season he’s had. Hamonic has the second-most average short-handed time on ice among Senators skaters, and the penalty kill he helps anchor currently ranks as the fifth-best in the NHL. He’s respected for the sacrifices he makes in his own end, and has registered 66 blocked shots.

But public analytics models are quite bearish on his work in his own end, with the work of The Athletic’s Shayna Goldman and Dom Luszczyszyn, for example, holding Hamonic in the fourth percentile leaguewide in 5v5 on-ice defensive impact. (subscription link) 

So opinions on Hamonic are definitely split. But like with many of the defensemen on this list, a trade to a contending team and a role on a squad making a deep playoff run could earn him some money.

While some of the more analytically-inclined front offices might shy away from investing in Hamonic next summer, he should have some suitors among some more traditional teams who place more value on the particular set brand of play Hamonic provides.

Justin Braun, Philadelphia Flyers

Braun will turn 36 in February and is currently playing out a one-year, $1MM deal with the Philadelphia Flyers. Braun’s actually been pretty good in his own end, helping out on the Flyers’ penalty kill and generally just playing sound hockey for coach John Tortorella.

But more recently, he’s found himself in the press box as his offensive production of zero points in 33 games is becoming harder and harder to ignore. With a cheap expiring contract and a long track record of safe stay-at-home play, Braun is a candidate to be traded at the deadline, just as he was last season.

Given the lack of any sort of offensive element to his game, Braun’s market next summer will be somewhat restricted. But since his defensive game is still NHL-caliber, he should be able to catch on with a team as a veteran depth addition capable of giving safe, low-event minutes.

Michael Stone, Calgary Flames

A staple in Calgary for over a half-decade, Stone has provided the Flames with defensive depth at a cheap price. This year has been no different, as he’s played 32 games for coach Darryl Sutter’s squad at just a $750k cap hit.

Since he doesn’t play on either special teams unit, his value in a specialist role is limited. But coach Sutter still clearly trusts him enough to dress him regularly, and the two-time Stanley Cup champion’s endorsement carries weight.

He’ll be 33 by the time the market opens next summer, and expecting him to sign another deal with Calgary near the league minimum would be a safe bet.

Pictures courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

With the new year upon us, the NHL season is in full swing. Teams are jockeying for playoff position, and many players with expiring contracts across the NHL are playing games that could ultimately determine what type of payday they might receive in the summer.

In a multi-part series, we’ll take a look at each position group of the upcoming free agent class, and do a rundown on how those upcoming unrestricted free agents have performed this year. Which players have increased their odds of landing a massive contract? Which players have potentially hurt their earning potential with their play? We’ll break it all down here.

The Marquee Names

Shayne Gostisbehere, Arizona Coyotes

While Gostisbehere may not be the traditional free agent “marquee name” whose acquisition can shape the fortunes of an entire franchise, his play as an Arizona Coyote has solidified his status as one of the top left-shot free agent defensemen in his class.

Gostisbehere arrived in Arizona in the summer of 2021, with his former team, the Philadelphia Flyers, paying draft picks to the Coyotes in exchange for Arizona taking on Gostisbhere’s $4.5MM cap hit.

After scoring 65 points in 2017-18, Gostisbehere’s descent from stardom was rapid, and his warts in his own end combined with declining offense forced his way out of favor in the Flyers organization.

While the trade to the Coyotes at one point seemed to be rock bottom for Gostisbehere’s professional career, the deal seems to have actually served as the catalyst for a career rebirth. Gostisbehere scored 14 goals and 51 points last season, which ranked him in the top-15 in defensive scoring.

It was the inconsistency of Gostisbehere’s production that caused him major issues in Philadelphia, but thankfully he has continued his strong play into this year as well. In 37 games so far this year Gostisbehere has 26 points, which is a 58-point full-season pace.

He’ll never be someone coaches trust for his play in his own end or away from the puck. But using the case of Tony DeAngelo as an example, it’s clear defensemen in Gostisbehere’s mold are valued league-wide.

Gostisbehere’s former team parted with multiple draft picks in order to acquire DeAngelo, who like Gostisbehere is a supremely talented and productive offensive defenseman without much off-puck or defensive value. It’s possible that in his trip to unrestricted free agency, Gostisbehere views the $5MM AAV DeAngelo makes to be his target on any new contract.

Given that Gostisbehere, who will be 30 in April, was just two years ago seen as a salary cap deadweight at a $4.5MM AAV, the possibility of him now receiving a new contract above that cap hit on the open market would be the perfect culmination of what has been a stunning career revival.

The Solid Contributors

Ryan Graves, New Jersey Devils

Graves, like Gostisbehere, is another blueliner who has seen his career take a significant upward trajectory in recent years. At one point, Graves was more or less viewed as one of the dime-a-dozen minor league farmhands that patrol the many bluelines of the AHL.

Three seasons into his professional career, Graves had seen his importance in the New York Rangers organization decline, and he was unceremoniously shipped out west in exchange for Chris Bigras in a deal PHR at the time called a swap of minor leaguers.

The Avalanche organization saw something in Graves and believed they could get the most out of his hulking six-foot-five frame. After another year and a half spent in the minors, Graves earned a spot in the NHL with the Avalanche and didn’t let it go.

He played an extremely limited role in 2018-19, but in the very next season, he averaged the second-most ice time on the penalty kill of any Avalanche player.

The year after, Graves led Colorado in short-handed ice time. With his cap hit set to rise as a restricted free agent, the team was forced to trade Graves to the New Jersey Devils.

In New Jersey, Graves has further solidified his status as a quality top-four defenseman. He flashed some more offensive touch last season, setting a career-high with 28 points.

This year he’s remained an important part of the Devils’ defensive plans even as he’s ceded his role as a penalty-killing anchor to John Marino and Jonas Siegenthaler, two other formidable defenders.

Graves will be 28 in the summer, and his age lines him up quite well for a potential payday. He isn’t having as strong of a season this year as he had last year, but he remains a valued defenseman nonetheless.

Dmitry Orlov, Washington Capitals

Orlov may well belong in the “marquee names” tier of free agents, but given that he’ll be 32 when (or if) he hits free agency this summer, it seems more appropriate to put him in a tier below Gostisbehere.

That’s not meant as any slight to Orlov’s play or value, though. Although he’s acted somewhat in the shadow of John Carlson, one of the league’s most prolific offensive defensemen, Orlov has been a rock for Washington for an entire era of Capitals hockey.

The Russian blueliner has played in nearly 700 career games and is typically a slam-dunk bet to score around 30 points. Orlov pairs that valuable secondary scoring with the ability to weather difficult defensive minutes, making him a dream number-two defenseman.

This season, Orlov has put an injury behind him and resumed his high-end play. He’s helping the Capitals’ penalty kill rank inside the league’s top-ten, and is scoring at a 36-point pace.

While his age may mean a massive long-term deal is ruled out for him, his stock is holding steady in advance of the expiration of his $5.1MM AAV deal.

Vladislav Gavrikov, Columbus Blue Jackets

While the Blue Jackets have had a season to forget so far in 2022-23, Gavrikov has continued his strong play from last season and positioned himself at the forefront of the NHL’s trade rumor news cycle.

After scoring 33 points last season, Gavrikov’s offense is down this year. He’s on pace to score just 20 points, but that may not take a major bite out of his overall value.

Ever since it was announced that franchise blueliner Zach Werenski would miss the rest of the season due to injury, Gavrikov has been thrust into a significant role as the Blue Jackets’ number-one defenseman.

Gavrikov averages the third-most short-handed ice time per game, and although the Blue Jackets have been one of the league’s worst teams, their penalty kill actually ranks in the middle of the pack league-wide.

He’s a big, physical defenseman who has been pressed into extremely difficult minutes and has found success in those circumstances.

Defensemen who bring that kind of value to the table are in-demand league-wide, and Gavrikov should be one of the top defensemen in the mix around the trade deadline.

A trade to a contender and a deep playoff run would do wonders for Gavrikov’s stock heading into free agency, just as the Canadiens’ run to the 2021 Stanley Cup Final did wonders for Ben Chiarot’s league-wide standing.

Even if that extensive playoff run doesn’t materialize, Gavrikov’s play in extremely challenging circumstances has raised his stock heading into free agency. Since he’ll be just 27 when he hits the open market, he could be in line to land a major contract.

Dmitry Kulikov, Anaheim Ducks

There are certain players across the NHL who are established, known commodities. When teams add these players to their roster, they know with a strong degree of certainty what they’ll be receiving, and those players in turn have established track records of providing performances well within what could reasonably be expected of them.

Kulikov is one of those players. The journeyman blueliner is on his fifth team in four seasons, and could add a sixth in that time frame should he get traded before the trade deadline. He arrived in Anaheim as part of an offseason trade, landing in Southern California in exchange for future considerations.

The Wild weren’t able to generate a significant trade market for Kulikov, as his $2.25MM cap hit may have been a major obstacle in a flat-cap environment. Nonetheless, the fact that he was acquired for essentially nothing hasn’t stopped him from providing value to the Ducks, one of the league’s worst teams.

Kulikov’s offense isn’t his calling card, and his performance of nine points in 39 games underscores that notion. But what Kulikov does provide is steady defensive play and minutes a coach doesn’t need to worry about.

He’s been a bit overmatched as an anchor of a penalty kill in Anaheim, as he’s averaging over three minutes per night on the league’s third-worst shorthanded unit. In a less significant role on a contending team, he should be able to thrive.

The fact that he was traded for future considerations on just a $2.25MM cap hit doesn’t bode very well for his odds of earning a raise in the summer, but nonetheless, Kulikov’s stock is holding steady, and he remains a safe investment for any team looking to reinforce their blueline.

The Role Players

Ian Cole, Tampa Bay Lightning

The Lightning signed Cole last summer with a particular reason in mind. They needed an experienced, reliable defenseman to fill in some vacant minutes on their back end, and needed one who wouldn’t require a pricey long-term commitment.

Cole, 33, has done exactly that, scoring 12 points in 34 games and averaging the fourth-most ice time per night of any Tampa Bay blueliner.

A two-time Stanley Cup champion, Cole has helped the Lightning’s penalty kill rank inside the league’s top-ten, and has been a reliable defensive presence overall.

While teams are far wearier of giving pricey contracts with term attached to veteran defensive defensemen than they once were, Cole’s play in Tampa has been strong enough to earn him another decent contract, albeit possibly another one-year deal.

He has major playoff experience under his belt, which is something teams value, and should the Lightning go on yet another deep run in the spring, Cole’s wallet stands to benefit.

Olli Maatta, Detroit Red Wings

It may have been a surprise to some when Maatta, who is now 28 years old, signed a one-year, $2.25MM contract in the offseason.

While Maatta’s lack of foot speed had kept him from being the minutes-eating, top-four force many envisioned him becoming when he was a top prospect, he had still developed into a reliable NHL blueliner.

That one-year deal came at a major pay cut from the $4.08MM AAV he had earned on his last contract, although the flat cap environment likely played a role in that.

As we inch closer to an environment where the salary cap will rise again, Maatta could be in line to benefit. He’s been a solid contributor for the Red Wings, averaging the fourth-most minutes of any Detroit blueliner. He’s chipped in on their penalty kill as well.

Maatta has also added 13 points in 32 games, which is a 33-point pace. After scoring just eight points in 66 games last season, this uptick in offensive production is certainly going to be useful as Maatta readies for a second consecutive trip to the open market.

Brian Dumoulin, Pittsburgh Penguins

On one hand, it looks like this year has been business as usual for Dumoulin, one of the Penguins’ most important defensive contributors for the past seven-plus seasons. He remains a crucial part of the Penguins’ penalty kill, one of the league’s best units, and is still playing nearly twenty minutes per night.

Although some of the public analytics models are split on Dumoulin’s value, some look at his defensive performance positively and indicate that he’s remained the valuable defensive rock that he’s been for much of this era of Penguins hockey.

Look more closely, though, and you’ll see that Dumoulin has had a challenging season in Pittsburgh. His usually rock-solid defensive play has been far more mistake-prone than usual this season, and the team’s unshakeable loyalty to Dumoulin in the midst of this decline in play has garnered criticism from Penguins fans and members of the media alike.

This reality leaves Dumoulin in a complicated position heading into the expiration of his $4.1MM AAV contract. His name still carries value to many, especially to those who remember his exploits during the Penguins’ back-to-back Stanley Cup Championships.

But there are growing signs that the Dumoulin of those years is gone, signs that are becoming harder and harder to ignore. With that in mind, it’s hard to say that Dumoulin’s stock is trending anywhere but down.

Erik Gustafsson, Washington Capitals

One could not be blamed for being a bit confused by Gustafsson’s career trajectory. After a few seasons spent largely in the AHL, Gustafsson had an extremely successful 2018-19 campaign, scoring 17 goals and 60 points. The year after, though, Gustafsson scored just 29 points, a total not high enough for an offense-only blueliner to justify regular minutes.

Gustafsson was traded to the Calgary Flames that next season, and then signed a contract with the Flyers.

He was downright bad in Philadelphia and was shipped to Montreal for a seventh-round pick. After playing a sheltered role during the Canadiens’ run to the Stanley Cup final, it looked as though Gustafsson could be headed back to Europe, having played his way out of favor in the NHL.

That summer, though, Gustafsson managed to earn an NHL deal, returning to Chicago after a PTO with the New York Islanders. He wasn’t great, scoring just 18 points in 59 games, but his performance was good enough to earn him a cheap one-year deal from the Capitals, who were looking to affordably fill the void left by Justin Schultz’s departure.

This year, Gustafsson has been great for the Capitals, and he’s recently been on a scoring tear. He had a stretch where he scored 13 points in just seven games, and his season total is up to 23 points in 40 games.

That’s a 47-point pace, and if he can manage to hit the 40-point plateau, you can consider his NHL career revived.

The inconsistency that has plagued Gustafsson’s NHL career may hurt his odds at a major contract, as might his age, as he’ll be 31 when he hits the open market.

But at the very least, Gustafsson’s resurgent offensive production places him as a solid backup plan for any team that misses out on signing Gostisbehere.

His stock has shot up in recent weeks, and if he can keep scoring he’ll likely earn a decent raise from his current $800k cap hit.

Carson Soucy, Seattle Kraken

There were some who questioned why the Kraken selected Soucy, 28, in their expansion draft, rather than selecting then-24-year-old goalie Kaapo Kahkonen, who had stellar performances in Liiga and the AHL on his resume.

The Kraken’s choice has largely been justified by Soucy’s play, though, as the blueliner has established himself as a full-time NHLer in Seattle. Soucy scored 10 goals and 21 points last season and saw his role increase after the departures of Mark Giordano and Jeremy Lauzon.

This season, Soucy has been an important contributor to the Kraken’s bottom pairing, adding reliable minutes in that third-pairing capacity as well as solid second-unit penalty-killing duties.

Soucy’s defensive play has been extremely well-liked by public analytics models, and although those strong underlying numbers haven’t materialized into a top-four role in Seattle, it could make him a potentially savvy investment for a team looking to unearth an underrated player on the open market.

While he may not have the box score numbers or the type of minutes that typically earn blueliners major contracts, there are things to like in Soucy’s game. Whether those commendable qualities are rewarded with a significant contract remains to be seen.

Alexander Edler, Los Angeles Kings

A veteran of over 1,000 NHL games, Edler is firmly in the one-year deal phase of his career. He earned $3.5MM last season before taking a one-year, $750k extension (with bonuses attached) to remain in Los Angeles.

Edler isn’t what he once was, but he’s still been able to give the Kings bottom-pairing minutes, some time on the penalty kill, and some leadership value. It’s unlikely that Edler will look for or manage to earn a major raise from the contract he received last season, but his status heading into free agency is notable nonetheless.

At this stage of his career, a major move, one with the potential to uproot his family as he heads to a new market to play, seems unlikely. But he’s still a useful piece, and should have a place in the mix for Los Angeles should he choose to continue his career beyond this season.

Niko Mikkola, St. Louis Blues

Mikkola is on the other end of his career compared to Edler, set to hit free agency for the first time at the age of 27. The Finnish blueliner has been a defensive specialist in St. Louis, playing second-pairing minutes next to Colton Parayko as well as time on the penalty kill.

He’s earning $1.9MM against the cap this season, and at the age of 27 represents a younger investment for teams looking to add a defenseman. There isn’t much offense to his game, but teams can always find a use for a big, physical defensive defenseman, and that reality should help him on the open market.

Others Of Note

Nick Holden, Ottawa Senators

A veteran of over 600 NHL games, the 35-year-old Holden has embraced a veteran leadership role on a young Senators team. The undrafted blueliner has seen quite a bit in his extensive career and is helping the Senators inch closer to a return to contention.

Holden has largely played on the third pairing for the Senators, helping shelter Erik Brannstrom, a young, offensively-focused blueliner who is prone to defensive lapses. There isn’t much offense to speak of in Holden’s game, but he has a major role in the Senators’ penalty kill.

His play this season has kept his stock steady heading into a possible trip to free agency, and he’ll be an attractive option for a team looking to add a veteran defensive defenseman at a lower price point.

Marc Staal, Florida Panthers

The role Holden could end up playing in this summer’s free agent market is the one Staal played on the market last summer. The veteran stay-at-home defenseman signed a one-year, league-minimum deal with the Panthers, acting as a cheap addition of leadership and defensive play to a strong Panthers roster.

Florida’s season hasn’t gone as they’d hoped it would, and part of their struggles have been due to Staal playing a larger role than he’s equipped to handle at this point in his career.

Staal is leading the Panthers in short-handed ice time per game and is currently slotted in on the team’s top pairing as Aaron Ekblad’s partner. In 2023, it’s difficult to justify using Staal, 35, as a top-pairing defenseman.

He’s an unquestionably accomplished player who has had a heck of an NHL career, but top-pairing deployment isn’t putting Staal in a position to play at his best.

Calvin de Haan, Carolina Hurricanes

At just an $850k cap hit, de Haan has been a valuable addition to the Hurricanes’ blueline. Since coach Rod Brind’Amour has such a deep and talented stable of blueliners, de Haan has been afforded the ability to play in a comfortable, relatively limited role in Carolina.

In those manageable minutes, de Haan has excelled, providing the team with safe, competent defensive play. He’s not asked to play much on special teams, and averages just over 12 minutes per night, so on paper it’s easy to see de Haan’s performance as an indication of his declining NHL value.

But looking at his case more generously, one can look at the 12:30 per night de Haan provides as over 12 minutes Brind’Amour doesn’t need to worry about each game. There’s value in de Haan’s ability to provide that, which puts him in a favorable position heading into the expiration of his one-year contract.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

With the new year upon us, the NHL season is in full swing. Teams are jockeying for playoff position, and many players with expiring contracts across the NHL are playing games that could ultimately determine what type of payday they might receive in the summer.

In a multi-part series, we’ll take a look at each position group of the upcoming free agent class, and do a rundown on how those upcoming unrestricted free agents have performed this year. Which players have increased their odds of landing a massive contract? Which players have potentially hurt their earning potential with their play? We’ll break it all down here.

The Marquee Names

David Pastrnak, Boston Bruins

With a Rocket Richard in his back pocket and a half-decade of play at or above the point-per-game mark on his resume, Pastrnak is the great jewel of next summer’s free agent class.

He’s one of the best wingers in all of hockey, period. He scored 40 goals and 77 points last season and this year, he’s scoring at a 57-goal, 114-point pace.

Helping Czech countryman David Krejci make an instant impact upon his return to the NHL, Pastrnak is the type of winger who is a playmaking center’s dream. The Bruins have been the best team in the NHL so far this year, and a major reason for that success has been Pastrnak.

While the Bruins have in the past signed their forwards to team-friendly contract extensions arguably below the signing player’s true market value, they should be willing to go to extreme lengths to get Pastrnak signed to a long-term deal.

Patrick Kane, Chicago Blackhawks

Kane is one of the greatest players of this generation of hockey and his exploits during this era of Blackhawks hockey, a golden era for one of the league’s original six franchises, have made him into a Chicago sports icon.

He’s also having his least-productive season in a half-decade as the team around him has been stripped for parts and sent away in order for the team to be able to amass a stockpile of draft picks and prospects.

As a result, it’s easy to say Kane’s stock is down from where it once was. That assessment isn’t without its merit, as Kane normally cruises past the point-per-game threshold, and hasn’t done so this season.

But it’s likely that Kane will remain one of the most sought-after players in free agency, and it’s unlikely that a small downturn in production will reduce the line of motivated suitors he’ll have to sift through next summer.

And if Kane ends up traded to a contending team, where he promptly returns to his prior form and leads them on a long playoff run, his slower-than-usual start to the year will be an afterthought.

We’re not at that point yet, though. Kane’s form on this talent-deficient Blackhawks team may put the faintest thought in some teams’ heads that maybe the 34-year-old star is finally showing some age-related decline.

Vladimir Tarasenko, St. Louis Blues

Just a few short years ago, Tarasenko’s career seemed to be somewhat in peril. The superstar forward had missed major time due to shoulder surgeries and had played in just 34 games over the span of two seasons.

Tarasenko got the chance to be a healthy member of the Blues’ lineup once again in 2021-22, and he went out and had the best campaign of his career.

He scored 34 goals and 82 points in 75 games, the first time in his NHL career that he crossed the point-per-game mark.

This year, it’s been more of the same. While the Blues themselves have struggled mightily to play with any sort of consistency, Tarasenko has been solid, scoring 29 points in 34 games.

Tarasenko just turned 31 years old, and should be a coveted option for teams looking to add a star scorer on the open market, should the Blues allow him to get there.

The Solid Contributors

Alex Killorn, Tampa Bay Lightning

Through his hard work, durability, and consistency, Killorn has been one of the most valuable “glue” players on the Lightning. He’s played a consistent role since he was a rookie in 2012-13, and has been reliable to score at least at a 40-point pace each year.

More recently, Killorn’s offensive production has ticked up, as he has 117 points in his last 173 games, a 55-point pace. Playing on both special teams units, Killorn is the type of consistent all-around presence that coaches adore.

With some significant pay raises set to kick in next year, it doesn’t look like the Lightning will be able to offer Killorn the type of contract extension that could match the offers he’d receive on the open market.

At the age of 33, Killorn doesn’t represent a youthful investment for interested teams. But he has two Stanley Cup rings, significant playoff experience, brings off-ice leadership value, and has seen his scoring numbers increase in recent years.

He may not bring the star power of the three names listed above him, but Killorn still has his valued place in next summer’s free agent class.

Conor Sheary, Washington Capitals

Standing at just five-foot-nine, 180 pounds, Sheary doesn’t bring the sort of physical dimension to his game that Killorn offers. But the undrafted product has some similarities to Killorn that will benefit him on the open market.

First and foremost, he’s a two-time Stanley Cup champion. While that’s a team accomplishment first and foremost, teams have valued free agents with that championship pedigree.

Sheary’s offensive numbers have also ticked up in recent years, going from 22 points in 2020-21 to 43 in 2021-22 and 26 in 39 games so far this year. He also contributes on both the power play and penalty kill, another similarity to Killorn.

Those factors will all help Sheary either land a solid contract extension with the Capitals or garner interest on the open market. While Sheary hasn’t always been the most consistent producer and at 30 years old isn’t young anymore, he’s been a valuable member of the Capitals and his stock is up as a result.

Gustav Nyquist, Columbus Blue Jackets

Nyquist, 33, has been a quality second-line scoring option for many years now. Arriving in Columbus on a $5.5MM AAV deal, Nyquist provided the Blue Jackets with a 42-point season (in 70 games) and a 53-point campaign. That’s healthy, reasonable production that didn’t set the world on fire but also didn’t leave Blue Jackets fans with very much buyer’s remorse.

Blue Jackets GM Jarmo Kekalainen paid for Nyquist knowing exactly what he’d receive, and Nyquist has largely held up his end of the bargain.

Nyquist’s scoring rate has admittedly slowed down from last season, as he’s on pace for 42 points, but that’s still not out of line with what he posted in his first year in Ohio.

Nyquist still plays on both the Blue Jackets’ power play and penalty kill, and while Columbus has struggled mightily, it’s difficult to pin significant blame on Nyquist’s shoulders.

If he enters the open market, the relatively minor but still notable decline in his offensive production could cost him some money on his next deal. He’ll still remain a reasonable option for any team looking to fortify its middle-six, though.

Connor Brown, Washington Capitals

Brown received some horrible news as he was just beginning his free agency platform season, as he tore his ACL in his right knee and had to undergo surgery in order to repair it.

The injury in all likelihood turned this 2021-22 campaign into a lost one for Brown, who could have put forth a convincing platform year in advance of his first trip to unrestricted free agency.

The 28-year-old winger provides all-situations value for his team, able to serve as a valuable defensive contributor as well as a complementary offensive piece.

This significant injury injects some uncertainty into his free agent profile. What Brown offers on the ice is normally quite consistent and clear, but now as he’s recovering from a major injury teams may hold off on making a long-term investment until they can see how well he fares when he comes back.

The Role Players

Corey Perry, Tampa Bay Lightning

Perry, now 37 years old, isn’t what he once was as a player. The 2010-11 Hart Trophy winner won’t be able to lead his team in scoring, but if there’s anything he’s shown in the past few years, it’s that his declining physical talents won’t stop him from being a valuable contributor to his club.

Perry scored 19 goals and 40 points last season, helping the Lightning reach the Stanley Cup final. This year, he has 14 points in 35 games.

While he’s gotten slower and isn’t quite able to match the physical intensity he once played with, Perry’s slick hands and smooth puck skills remain an asset.

He’s helped the Canadiens and Lightning in recent years as a net-front presence on the power play, and even though he’s not scoring at a 40-point pace this year, if he can finish in the mid-thirties in terms of points his stock heading to free agency will likely go unscathed.

Jesper Fast, Carolina Hurricanes

Fast is the sort of winger whose free agency could go one of two ways. On one hand, the veteran Swede scored 14 goals and 34 points last year and is a valued two-way presence who chips in on the penalty kill. He brings a valuable set of skills to the table, and could land a nice contract as a result.

On the other hand, Fast is the sort of middle-class free agent who could be squeezed by the salary cap remaining relatively flat for another season. While his overall profile is certainly valuable, he plays best in the sort of bottom-six role many teams may prefer to fill with a cheap internal option.

All Fast can do himself is continue to play well. If he can reach the 15-goal, 35-point marks he just missed out on last season, he’ll have his fair share of suitors on the open market.

Evan Rodrigues, Colorado Avalanche

Rodrigues lingered on the open market quite a bit longer than many might have anticipated, signing a contract with the Avalanche in September. He was coming off of a season where he scored 19 goals and 43 points, and many believed the $2MM guarantee he received to be not a fair reflection of his overall value.

This year, Rodrigues started off a bit slow and dealt with an injury, but has really started to heat up more recently. He has five points in his last four games, bringing his season-long total up to 16 points in 26 games. That’s a 50-point pace, and he’s done that while also chipping in on the Avalanche’s penalty kill.

If he can continue to score at a reasonable rate and help the Avalanche make a playoff run, he could have a more fruitful trip to the market than he had last year. As of right now, with Rodrigues on a hot streak, it’s hard to say his stock is anything but up.

Phil Kessel, Vegas Golden Knights

Kessel is an interesting case. He’s accomplished just about everything he’d likely want to accomplish in his NHL career, having won two Stanley Cups and becoming the NHL’s reigning “iron man.”

He signed a cheap one-year deal with the Golden Knights in the summer, and it’s clear that he’s reaching the tail end of what has been a fantastic run in the NHL. Kessel is on pace to score just 30 points, and his longstanding defensive issues have forced the Golden Knights to play him in a sheltered offensive role.

If Kessel can go on a second-half tear, it’s possible that performance could keep him in the NHL for another year. But based on how things are looking, it’s going to be a challenge for Kessel to find a deep market of teams interested in adding him next summer for his age-36 season.

Others Of Note

Jimmy Vesey, New York Rangers

Vesey’s second go-around on Broadway has been decent, with the 29-year-old’s true NHL role now far more clear. He’s no longer miscast as a top-scoring prospect, and in a more focused role, he’s excelled.

Vesey is scoring at a 27-point pace and is helping out as a second-unit penalty-killer on the Rangers’ above-average shorthanded unit. He’s providing competent, if decidedly no-frills bottom-six play in New York, and as long as he isn’t asked by coach Gerard Gallant to play higher in the lineup than he’s capable of, he’ll likely continue to impress.

Making just $750K after spending the preseason on a PTO, Vesey is providing competent, cheap bottom-six play, and is the sort of cheap role player any contender in a cap league could use.

If he hits free agency next summer his market is unlikely to be robust, but if he keeps playing the way he’s playing he may not have to settle for a PTO for a second-straight year.

Vladislav Namestnikov, Tampa Bay Lightning

Another veteran winger on his second tour of duty with the first club he ever played with, Namestnikov has provided decent fourth-line play for the Lightning.

He’s scored 11 points in 34 games, although that number could be a decent bit higher if he had any shooting luck. (his 4% shooting percentage this year is a steep decline from the 17.6% mark he posted last year)

Namestnikov has spent time on both of coach Jon Cooper’s special teams units, although his role hasn’t been extensive.

His declined shooting percentage means his offensive production is down, but Namestnikov is nonetheless a trusted veteran forward who should continue to play well enough to earn another NHL deal, even if it’s not quite at the $2.5MM cap hit he costs this year.

Garnet Hathaway, Washington Capitals

A grinder through and through, Hathaway has been a regular face in his team’s NHL lineup since 2017-18. Last year, Hathaway’s offensive production got a bump, and he finished with 14 goals and 26 points in 76 games.

He scored those 14 goals with virtually no power play time, and his 26-point performance was the best of his career. This season, Hathaway hasn’t been as good on offense, and he’s on pace for just eight goals and 21 points.

Hathaway’s game away from the puck remains solid, though. He’s a leading penalty killer for Washington, helping their kill rank inside the league’s top ten.

Even if his offense doesn’t quite reach the heights it did last year, the 31-year-old Hathaway is still playing well enough to garner some interest on the open market.

Pierre Engvall, Toronto Maple Leafs

After scoring 15 goals and 35 points last season, Engvall’s start to this year was a bit underwhelming. More recently, though, Engvall has heated up. He’s got eight points in his last nine games, including a five-game points streak.

That’s brought his overall scoring pace this season up to a 16-goal, 33-point pace, which is right around where he was last year.

Obviously, it’s highly unlikely that Engvall will be able to sustain his current hot streak. But if he can manage to score around the 15-goal, 35-point mark, he’ll be in a great place entering the open market.

At just 27 years old, he’ll be a younger option than many other teams will be considering, and standing six-foot-five, 220 pounds, he brings intriguing size to the table as well.

Trevor Lewis, Calgary Flames

At this point in his career, we know what Lewis, a two-time Stanley Cup champion, brings to the table. A trusted bottom-sixer of head coach Darryl Sutter, Lewis has been a constant presence on the Flames’ penalty kill for the past two seasons.

Lewis helped Sutter’s shorthanded unit to a top-six finish last year, and playing in a fourth-line role he’s been crucial in helping Sutter establish his desired culture in Calgary. He doesn’t score much (he notched just 16 points last year) but he brings many other valued skills to the table.

His points production has actually ticked up this year (he’s on pace to score 26 points) but the Flames have regressed as an overall unit. He’ll turn 36 next week, and will likely remain at Sutter’s side in Calgary beyond this season rather than take a trip to the open market.

Patric Hornqvist, Florida Panthers

While Hornqvist has been a crucial culture-builder and locker-room presence for the Panthers, a club that won the President’s Trophy last season, his on-ice value has eroded considerably.

The 36-year-old scored 11 goals and 28 points in 65 games last year, which rounds out to a 14-goal, 35-point pace. That’s not bad by any means, but it’s not quite the 32 points in 44 games he posted in his first year in South Florida.

This season, the production has totally bottomed out for Hornqvist, and he has just three points in 22 games. Hornqvist has been sidelined since early December with a concussion, an injury that has thus far cost him an opportunity to go on a hot stretch and improve his box score numbers.

While Hornqvist’s leadership and physicality make him a candidate to receive a contract next summer, it’s difficult to ignore the steep decline in his offensive numbers.

With the new year fast approaching, the NHL season is in full swing. Teams are jockeying for playoff position, and many players with expiring contracts across the NHL are playing games that could ultimately determine what type of payday they might receive in the summer.

In a multi-part series, we’ll take a look at each position group of the upcoming free agent class, and do a rundown on how those upcoming unrestricted free agents have performed this year. Which players have increased their odds of landing a massive contract? Which players have potentially hurt their earning potential with their play? We’ll break it all down here.

The Marquee Names

Andrei Kuzmenko, Vancouver Canucks

The second-straight Canuck to headline free agency stock watch, Kuzmenko is not your traditional candidate to be a top-of-his-position-group free agent. But he certainly has the numbers to back up his case.

After a lengthy courting process this summer, the Canucks signed Kuzmenko to a one-year, $925K deal out of the KHL’s SKA St. Petersburg. Kuzmenko scored 53 points in 45 games in the KHL, and while the inevitable questions of whether his KHL numbers would translate persisted, he has silenced them so far this year.

Kuzmenko has been a rare bright spot in a Vancouver market that hasn’t had much fun in 2022-23, scoring 14 goals and 29 points in 32 games.

Kuzmenko has helped the Canucks’ power play convert on 26.6% of its opportunities on the man advantage, which ranks inside the league’s top ten.

But complicating the good vibes surrounding Kuzmenko’s success has been the potential contract standoff that looms. After re-signing J.T. Miller to a seven-year, $8MM AAV extension, the Canuckks have seemingly made re-organizing their cap balance sheet a priority.

That raises some questions. Do the Canucks have the financial bandwidth to compete with the many bidders Kuzmenko is likely to attract? If the Canucks want to retain Kuzmenko, does the cost of his extension necessitate trading Brock Boeser, even if his $6.65MM cap hit means the team’s received return in any deal could be a fraction of Boeser’s on-ice value?

The months leading up to the opening of free agency won’t be easy ones for Canucks management. Kuzmenko’s stock is soaring, and while the Canucks are reaping the benefits at the moment, it’s possible that his play is pricing him out of a long-term extension to stay in British Columbia.

Max Pacioretty, Carolina Hurricanes

While Pacioretty has 850 games of NHL experience under his belt, his trip to free agency next summer has the potential to be just as complicated as Kuzmenko’s. Why? because Pacioretty has yet to take the ice this season and make his Hurricanes debut.

Pacioretty underwent surgery to repair a torn Achilles this summer, and that has kept him from meaningfully altering his stock through his on-ice play. What could potentially threaten Pacioretty’s earning potential, beyond just not scoring much upon his return from injury, is what his trade from the Golden Knights said about his leaguewide value.

The extreme constraints some teams were feeling under the salary cap over the Summer was no secret, but the difficulties of the flat cap were made clear when Pacioretty, a six-time 30-goal scorer on an expiring contract, was dealt with a young defenseman in Dylan Coghlan for future considerations.

The Golden Knights seemingly did not value Pacioretty at his $7MM cap hit, and were so eager to clear his hit from their books that they parted with Coghlan in order to facilitate a deal, receiving nothing but cap flexibility in return.

If Pacioretty is seeking to avoid taking a pay cut this summer on a long-term deal, that trade likely didn’t help matters. His injury, by no fault of his own, only added to that declining stock.

A strong performance in Carolina, including maybe even a productive deep playoff run, could do wonders to rehabilitate Pacioretty’s stock before he hits free agency. But at this point, with his capabilities upon his return to the ice still a mystery, Pacioretty may be the biggest question mark of the entire upcoming free agent class.

The Solid Contributors

Tyler Bertuzzi, Detroit Red Wings

Speaking of question marks, Bertuzzi has, like Pacioretty, also dealt with his fair share of availability-related issues recently. Bertuzzi underwent back surgery in 2021 and recently underwent surgery once again.

He’s been limited to just nine games played this season, and has scored four points. Last year, though, Bertuzzi posted excellent production, ranking second on the Red Wings in points with 30 goals and 62 points in 68 games.

That version of Bertuzzi was in line to get paid. The hard-nosed winger plays the sort of agitating, skill-and-sandpaper game that GMs across the league greatly covet, and when adding his near point-per-game production to the mix, he was lining himself up for a massive payday.

His health issues have now complicated that and meant that his stock is trending down. He still has time to return to the ice and play well for a Red Wings team that looks poised to remain in the playoff hunt.

He’ll be 28 when free agency opens, meaning he represents a relatively young investment compared to the glut of in-their-thirties free agents that typically populate the market.

But until his health issues are put behind him and he returns to playing his valuable, unique (if sometimes controversial) style of game, his stock must be considered to be on the decline.

Michael Bunting, Toronto Maple Leafs

When Bunting hit unrestricted free agency two years ago, he wasn’t without teams interested in securing his services. Coming off of an impressive 21-game showing with the Arizona Coyotes, where he scored 10 goals in 21 games, Bunting could maybe have cultivated a small bidding war and simply taken the most lucrative (likely one-year) contract he was offered.

But instead of taking that route, the Scarborough, Ontario native prioritized fit, and with Zach Hyman set to exit Toronto, he chose to sign a two-year, $950k deal. Presumably, that contract offer was selected with the possibility of playing as the third wheel on Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner’s line in mind.

In 2021-22, Bunting was indeed placed on that line, and he promptly scored 23 goals and 63 points. This year has been more of the same, as Bunting has remained one of the league’s most valuable non-ELC players on a cost-per-point basis, scoring 24 points in 34 games.

Bunting, whose Toronto tenure has established his ability to not only help more skilled players shine, but also produce well without a featured power play role, has lined himself up for a solid free agent payday.

While the ever-so-slight downturn in production (he scored 63 points last year and is scoring at a 58-point pace this year) may seem notable to some, Bunting’s stock is most definitely on the rise as he’s adding another productive season to his resume while remaining a valuable contributor to what looks to be another Maple Leafs regular-season juggernaut.

Jason Zucker, Pittsburgh Penguins

Of all the players already listed and still to come, Zucker’s stock may have shot up the most since the start of 2022-23.

His health issues seemingly behind him, Zucker has scored 21 points in 29 games so far this year.

Zucker’s leaguewide reputation as a capable if relatively unexciting second-line scorer, a reputation he once enjoyed before it was eroded by an injury-plagued Penguins tenure, is seemingly on the path to being restored.

While some might quibble that Zucker’s issues on the defensive side of the ice should diminish his case for a hefty free-agent contract, Zucker will be 31 when free agency opens and has a shot to cross the 50-point plateau for the first time since 2017-18.

Well-liked veterans with those numbers don’t leave the free agent market empty-handed.

James Van Riemsdyk, Philadelphia Flyers

While the Flyers’ season has gone a bit off the rails since a promising start, Van Riemsdyk’s re-integration into their lineup after finger surgery in October has gone swimmingly.

Van Riemsdyk has 13 points in 15 games, meaning just four points separate him from the Flyers’ top-five scorers despite that limited sample size. For years one of the league’s premier net-front specialists, it seems Van Riemsdyk is still a capable scoring-line forward at the age of 33.

He’ll be 34 when free agency opens, and although his scoring rate is likely to slow down a bit he’ll likely be an attractive short-term piece for a contender. Even if his scoring slows down as we get deeper into the season, his stock is definitely up from where it was last season, when he scored a still-solid 24 goals and 38 points in 82 games.

Tomas Tatar, New Jersey Devils

After scoring 30 points in 50 games two years ago in his free agency platform season, the contract Tatar ultimately signed (a two-year, $4.5MM AAV pact with New Jersey) may have been a bit lighter than some expected. The Slovak forward had scored 61 points in 68 games the year before, and was considered a quality top-six piece.

Tatar’s time as a healthy scratch for most of his Canadiens’ run to the 2021 Stanley Cup final may have contributed to his more lukewarm-than-anticipated market, although if the Devils end up qualifying this spring he’ll have an opportunity to put together a productive postseason run.

Tatar has scored nine goals and 19 points in 34 games, which puts him at a 46-point 82-game pace. He scored 15 goals and 30 points in his debut season as a Devil, so his improved production would indicate his stock is up in advance of what could be another free agent trip.

He’s the sort of player who could really solidify a strong position on the market if he can finally have a productive playoff run.

Pavel Zacha, Boston Bruins

Zacha, 25, has long been seen as an underachieving player who has quite a bit more upside left to be unlocked. Ever since he was drafted sixth overall in 2015, high expectations have been placed on Zacha’s shoulders, and he hasn’t yet lived up to them.

This year has been a step in the right direction, though. Since being traded to a Bruins team that currently looks unstoppable, Zacha has scored 20 points in 33 games, a 50-point pace. He’s done so despite a shooting percentage of just 5.5%, a significant decline from his career 10.7 shooting percentage.

If Zacha can add some more goals and see his puck luck improve to something a bit less dire, he could reach a new level of production and value. He’ll have just recently turned 26 if he hits the open market next year, and if he can have a productive playoff run, he could set himself up for a major payday.

While he may remain an underwhelming player given his high draft slot in what has looked like a historic 2015 first round, he has undoubtedly raised his stock this year and set himself up to earn a pretty penny if he can keep up his current play.

Zach Parise, New York Islanders

Parise, who will be 39 this next summer, continues to defy father time as a steady and productive goal scorer for the Islanders. After being bought out by the Minnesota Wild, Parise signed a cheap, league-minimum deal with the New York Islanders, brokered by the GM of his former team, Lou Lamoriello.

Parise, largely playing with franchise face Mathew Barzal, scored 15 goals and 35 points. He may not have been the elite first-line running mate Islanders fans wanted, but he was solid nonetheless. He signed another bargain-bin extension to remain on the Island this summer and has scored at a 26-goal, 40-point pace.

The hefty buyout from the Minnesota Wild attached to him, along with the contracts he’s received for the past two seasons indicates that he’s unlikely to be looking for a major free-agent cash-in. Instead, he seems to have prioritized fit, and as long as he feels a desire to keep playing, his scoring numbers will earn him another deal from the Islanders.

The Role Players

Marcus Johansson, Washington Capitals

The Capitals signed Johansson, a familiar face, to a one-year, $1.1MM deal this summer, coming off of a somewhat unremarkable showing for the team that spring. After being acquired from the Seattle Kraken, Johansson scored six points in 18 games.

He was brought back in the summer in large part due to the organization’s familiarity with him and they valued the versatility, reliability, and stability he could bring to their forward corps.

This year, Johansson has gotten a major power play role and has scored 16 points in 36 games, in large part thanks to the offensive opportunity he’s been afforded by coach Peter Laviolette. That’s a 37-point pace, and if he manages to finish in the 35-40 point range going into his free agency he could attract some interest outside of Washington.

While Johansson isn’t going to be a fit for a team looking for a depth signing that brings defensive fortitude, this year he’s shown that he can still contribute at the NHL level, and his performance should earn him some looks as a 32-year-old free agent.

Nick Foligno, Boston Bruins

After he received a contract worth $3.8MM against the cap with a two-year term, Bruins fans could not be blamed for expecting more from Foligno in his first year in Beantown.

The former Columbus Blue Jackets captain scored just two goals and 13 points in an injury-limited 64-game campaign, and his lone assist in the team’s seven-game playoff series loss to the Carolina Hurricanes only added to the buyer’s remorse.

The Bruins chose to retain Foligno at his cap hit for this season, and he has rewarded them with improved play. He has scored 16 points in 33 games, a 40-point pace, and he has done so despite skating just over 12 minutes per night.

While Foligno’s first season in Boston and failures as a Toronto Maple Leaf may give some teams pause next summer, his stock is firmly trending up from where it was last season.

Alexander Kerfoot, Toronto Maple Leafs

Kerfoot, a Maple Leaf for the past few seasons, is a curious case. He’s got loads of offensive skill and managed to score 51 points last season.

While the bottom fell out of his production in the playoffs, as he scored just two points in the team’s difficult seven-game loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning, he was a mid-twenties 50-point player capable of playing the wing or center in a pinch. Those are players that don’t grow on trees.

And yet this season, the decline that was hinted at in the playoffs has fully set in. Kerfoot’s production has declined, as he is scoring at just a 36-point pace, and even more time on the power play than last year hasn’t caused an uptick in points production.

While points are far from the only metric teams will use to determine the value of a player, it can be valuable to use points to serve as a baseline guiding light when appraising the value of offensive players. While Kerfoot does see time on the Maple Leafs penalty kill, the 51 points he scored last year were undoubtedly the most attractive component of his resume.

With that decline in production and no truly meaningful improvement to his all-around role to make up for it comes a decline in his stock heading into his trip to unrestricted free agency.

Nick Ritchie, Arizona Coyotes

Exiled from the Maple Leafs after their roll of the dice on him failed to pay dividends, Ritchie has carved out a nice role away from the bright lights of one of hockey’s biggest markets.

In Arizona, Ritchie scored 10 goals and 14 points in 24 games after arriving there via trade, and this season he has seven goals and 13 points in 26 games. While the days of Ritchie being a top prospect are long gone, he’s turned himself into a viable shoot-first third-liner who brings some size to his line.

He’ll be a 27-year-old free agent, and while the Coyotes may have some interest in continuing their mutually-beneficial partnership, the scoring winger is likely to receive interest from elsewhere as well.

Sonny Milano, Washington Capitals

One of the more curious cases of this past summer’s free agent class, Milano was non-tendered by the Anaheim Ducks and lingered far longer on the open market than many fans likely had anticipated he would.

After scoring 14 goals and 34 points in 66 games, many were hoping their team would add the 26-year-old 2014 first-round pick as a down-the-lineup scoring forward.

What observers may have perhaps underestimated, though, was just how negatively Milano’s all-around game could have been rated leaguewide. Never a defensive player, the failure of Milano’s PTO agreement with the Flames only made questions about his commitment to defense and the all-around game louder.

He signed a league-minimum one-year deal with the Washington Capitals, and after being called up to the main team he hasn’t looked back. He has scored 16 points in 23 games, often playing with some of the Capitals’ more established offensive talents, like Evgeny Kuznetsov.

While Milano remains the type of player whose defensive warts likely merit some sheltering from his coach, points are points and if Milano can keep up this red-hot start to his Capitals tenure, he should have an easier trip to the open market than he had last season.

Miles Wood, New Jersey Devils

The depth of next summer’s class of potential free agent left wingers has enviable depth. There are players like Milano, who brings offensive flair at a cheap price, and then there are players like Wood, who outside of some bursts of goal-scoring isn’t really valued for his production.

Wood, one of the faster players in hockey, is valued for his leadership ability, physical contributions, and abilities along the boards. Wood is part of a Devils fourth line that, when healthy, plays a fast, chaotic style that can give opposing teams fits on the forecheck.

He’ll be just 27 years old when he hits the market and could draw significant interest from teams looking to re-create that Devils fourth line. If he can play well under the bright lights of a possible Devils playoff run, he could have quite a few suitors if he hits the open market.

Adam Erne, Detroit Red Wings

Erne’s free agency case is relatively straightforward. Erne, who followed GM Steve Yzerman from Tampa Bay to Detroit, is valued by coaches for what he brings away from the puck rather than with the puck on his stick.

The former QMJHL star contributes to the Red Wings’ second penalty-killing unit, scores at a respectable clip (13 points in 32 games), is able to play almost anywhere in the lineup in a pinch, and will be 28 when he hits the open market.

That’s an attractive all-around package of skills, even if it’s not one that’s as rare as what some of his fellow free agents bring to the table.

While his overall talent level hasn’t changed very much, and his free agent stock remains largely steady as a result, the increased role Erne has played in Detroit in response to the team’s rash of injuries has meant his offensive production has ticked up from where it was last year.

He’s on pace to score 33 points, which would be quite a ways past his career-high of 2o. While his ability to play a quality supporting role on a Red Wings team that has been competitive so far this year should be what earns him the most looks on the open market, his increased offensive opportunity (and his shooting percentage going up from 5.6% to 16.1%) will help his stock trend up.

Andrew Cogliano, Colorado Avalanche

Cogliano, a veteran of 1,170 NHL games, has a clearly defined role in Colorado. He’s tasked with being a go-to penalty killer, a defensive specialist, and a valuable locker room voice. Any offensive production on top of that is just an added bonus.

While the 35-year-old is out of the lineup with an injury at the moment, his play so far this year has been solid, keeping his stock in a steady place. He’s earning $1.25MM against the cap, and as he ages that number is far more likely to go down rather than up.

But if Cogliano can continue to play well in his role for the defending Stanley Cup champions, he’ll undoubtedly earn another contract this summer.

Others Of Note

Matt Nieto, San Jose Sharks

The Sharks don’t have a highly competitive forward lineup, meaning Nieto has gotten a larger opportunity than he’d likely receive elsewhere. The 601-game veteran has responded well. On the offensive side of the ice, Nieto has scored 12 points in 31 games, an increase from the 17 points in 70 games he scored last year.

More impressively, Nieto is playing the most minutes of any Sharks forward on the penalty kill. The results of his heavy workload? He has helped lead his team to the top of the NHL’s penalty-kill rankings.

The 30-year-old has been skating in a bigger role than ever before in his NHL career, and while the Sharks have faltered, he’s thrived.

Andreas Athanasiou, Chicago Blackhawks

Athanasiou signed a one-year, $3MM deal with the Blackhawks in the offseason, an identical deal to the one Max Domi signed. Like Domi, Athanasiou likely agreed to the contract with the hope that playing next to Patrick Kane, a play-driving offensive force, would boost his numbers and land him a fatter contract the next summer.

While Domi has thrived to a certain degree, Athanasiou hasn’t been great. He has just 10 points in 31 games, and while seven of those are goals his failure to fully fit with Domi and Kane has seen him move down in the lineup.

A player with blazing speed and tantalizing one-on-one skills, Athanasiou has never quite been able to play consistently with linemates as part of a three-player unit. The best offensive players are able to leverage their position as part of a group of players in order to create scoring changes. That’s something Athanasiou has struggled with immensely this year and has been a challenge for him in the past.

While there’s still room for him to bounce back, his stock is down so far this year, and whether he receives much interest on the trade market later this year will be telling as to how he’s valued leaguewide.

Evgenii Dadonov, Montreal Canadiens

After landing in Montreal as part of a cap-clearing offseason trade, Dadonov likely had the hope that he’d soak up prime offensive opportunities on a rebuilding team, stack some points, and be traded to a contender mid-season. If that were to happen, he’d in all likelihood have placed himself in a solid position to earn a new contract.

Unfortunately, Dadonov’s tenure in Montreal has gone wildly off the rails. The former 70-point scorer had moments of brilliance last season and finished with 20 goals and 43 points. After 28 games this year, Dadonov is on pace to score around 20 points.

Canadiens head coach Martin St. Louis has tried to squeeze some value out of the 33-year-old veteran in lots of different ways, including even giving him penalty-killing looks, but none of his attempts have worked.

After a season where Dadonov played exceptionally well in stretches, his stock has declined sharply in Montreal.

Picture courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

With the new year fast approaching, the NHL season is in full swing. Teams are jockeying for playoff position, and many players with expiring contracts across the NHL are playing games that could ultimately determine what type of payday they might receive in the summer.

In a multi-part series, we’ll take a look at each position group of the upcoming free agent class, and do a rundown on how those upcoming unrestricted free agents have performed this year. Which players have increased their odds of landing a massive contract? Which players have potentially hurt their earning potential with their play? We’ll break it all down here.

The Marquee Names

Bo Horvat, Vancouver Canucks

Just a few months ago, it seemed impossible to imagine this current Canucks core led by anyone other than Horvat. The Canucks’ captain has been a centerpiece player in British Columbia since being drafted ninth overall in 2013, and the value he provides to the franchise both on and off the ice can oftentimes seem irreplaceable.

But with Vancouver’s season running off the rails, the team’s recent extension of J.T. Miller to a massive new contract, and their front office’s stated desire to gain more financial flexibility, it’s getting harder and harder to imagine a path where Horvat remains in Vancouver.

While Horvat may be disappointed at the increasingly realistic prospect of his Canucks departure, what should cheer him up is his play so far this season. Horvat has scored 22 goals and 31 points in 32 games, a number that puts him tied for fourth in goals in the NHL.

Horvat will be 28 years old when he first takes the ice with a new contract, a factor that could make him a more attractive long-term investment to teams than the players in their thirties that typically populate a free agent class. That, combined with his well-regarded defensive play and value as a leader means Horvat could be in a position to potentially earn the largest contract of the 2023 free agent class.

Dylan Larkin, Detroit Red Wings

Larkin is in many ways similar to Horvat. Like Horvat, Larkin is a team captain and a player who is known for providing value on both ends of the ice as well as off of it.

Unlike Horvat, though, there is a strong possibility that Larkin remains with the only franchise he’s ever known.

With 31 points in 31 games, Larkin is currently on pace for another season at or near the point-per-game threshold.

He’ll have just turned 27 years old when he hits free agency, and the reality of the NHL is that in-their-prime centers who combine offensive production and all-around play very rarely hit the open market.

While fans may not be pleased that an extension hasn’t been hammered out yet, Larkin has played exactly as well as anyone could have reasonably expected of him, and that deal should be coming.

The Red Wings’ cap sheet is not nearly as constrained as nearly every other team in the NHL, so with how well Larkin has been playing it would be a genuinely shocking development for him to do anything but remain in the Motor City.

Ryan O’Reilly, St. Louis Blues

While this section is labeled as free agency’s “marquee names” at the center position, it could also be called “the captains.” That’s because like Horvat, Larkin, and the two other names in this section, O’Reilly is a quality center and captain of his team set to hit free agency this summer.

Unlike the four other names in this group, though, O’Reilly’s play this season has not helped his case to earn a major contract this summer. And that decline in his stock is coming from his play at both ends of the ice.

As one would expect, the 2019 Conn Smythe Trophy winner is leading the Blues in short-handed ice time per game and playing a centerpiece defensive role for his club. Last season, the Blues had a top-five penalty kill, canceling opponents’ power plays at an 84.1% clip. O’Reilly led the way in getting the Blues to that point.

This year, it’s a different story. O’Reilly is still playing in that top defensive role, but the Blues are near the bottom of the NHL with a 71.3% penalty kill rate. That’s not all on O’Reilly’s shoulders, but as the player with the most ice time in those situations and coach Craig Berube’s most trusted defensive weapon, he does bear some responsibility for that decline.

What’s also declined as sharply as the Blues penalty kill is O’Reilly’s scoring numbers. O’Reilly has scored just 15 points in 33 games, a 37-point 82-game pace. Just two years ago, O’Reilly scored at nearly a point-per-game rate. Last year, he scored a healthy 58 points in 78 games.

As far as his next contract is concerned, if he doesn’t manage to go on a hot streak and get into the 40 or 50-point range, that offensive decline could put a serious dent in his earning potential. That’s doubly true of any perceived decline in his defensive game, as that’s his calling card.

Just as the Blues are looking to right the ship during what has been so far an uneven campaign, O’Reilly is likely looking to get back to the level of play he put forth in prior seasons in order to earn the best possible contract this summer.

The playoffs have been the games where O’Reilly’s star shines the brightest, so perhaps he’ll need to lead the way on another deep playoff run to alleviate fears that a steep age-related decline is setting in.

Patrice Bergeron, Boston Bruins

Bergeron’s free agency case is quite simple. Unlike most players, he’s not really in need of a “stock watch” entry. He’s scored 26 points in 32 games, could very well win yet another Selke Trophy, and is captaining a Bruins team that is currently laying waste to the entire NHL.

And he’s also costing the Bruins just $2.5MM against the cap.

Just as Bergeron is a special player, his upcoming free agency is a special situation. As he did this past summer, Bergeron will likely take some time to reflect and decide if he wants to return for another season, and then agree with the Bruins on an extension that makes sense for both parties.

He could go on a nine-game scoreless drought. He could make a few uncharacteristic defensive lapses and single-handedly tank the Bruins’ league-leading penalty kill a few percentage points. Doesn’t matter. A decision on his future this summer is entirely in his own hands, which is a right he’s earned after nearly two decades in Boston.

Jonathan Toews, Chicago Blackhawks

Toews, a three-time Stanley Cup-winning captain, and one-time Selke Trophy winner, is in a similar situation to Bergeron. The one complicating factor in Toews’ case compared to Bergeron’s is the state of the Blackhawks.

The Blackhawks are on a fast track to the highest odds for the NHL draft lottery, and there’s been much speculation over whether Toews wants to stick around in Chicago through what appears to be a painful, scorched-earth rebuild.

If he chooses to test the market, it’s likely that choice would come from a motivation to win one more Stanley Cup ring, which means his market and next contract could ultimately be decided by personal preference, rather than financial factors.

On the ice, Toews’ play has been solid, and while he’s not the lineup-topping two-way force he once was, his 17 points in 30 games on such a poor team is nothing to scoff at, and there are far worse second or third-line centers a team could have than Toews.

The Solid Contributors

Ivan Barbashev, St. Louis Blues

If one just compares this season to 2021-22, Barbashev’s stock in advance of his potential free agency is down. Barbashev scored 26 goals and 60 points last season, and now he is scoring at a 40-point pace. That decline alone will likely mean fewer dollars on his next contract.

But if we put Barbashev’s 2021-22 offensive explosion into a bit more context and look at a longer-term outlook, his stock would undoubtedly have to be viewed as being up.

Before last season, Barbashev’s career-high in points was 26. He was seen as more of a two-way center whose offensive skills simply were not refined enough or dangerous enough to allow him to create offensive opportunities consistently in the NHL.

Last year, Barbashev changed that narrative, and even though he hasn’t reached those heights so far this season he’s still managing to play at a 40-point pace. 40-point centers who can hold their own on both ends of the ice remain valuable, and while Barbashev isn’t going to win Selke trophies he does have a defensive dimension to his game.

Barbashev just recently turned 27, and if a team buys into the idea that he can return to scoring around the 60-point mark, he could get paid. But even if teams are less optimistic about his offensive game, his play this year is still far above what he once put forth at the NHL level, and has put him in a position to earn a quality contract.

J.T. Compher, Colorado Avalanche

When Nazem Kadri faced some injury issues in the 2022 playoffs, it was Compher’s job to step into a greater role down the middle and ensure the machine that was the 2021-22 Colorado Avalanche kept moving. He did exactly that and won a Stanley Cup as a result.

This year, with Kadri now in Calgary and the Avalanche battling a downright absurd amount of injuries, Compher has quietly stepped forward and provided competence, reliability, and all-around value. He’s scored 16 points in 31 games so far this year, and that 42-point pace, if sustained, would fly past his career-high of 33 points.

He’ll be 28 years old this summer, and his ability to play under pressure and step forward into a higher role in the lineup than he was originally slotted to occupy should make him a coveted name on the market.

Sean Monahan, Montreal Canadiens

Once a slam-dunk 25-30 goal scorer, injuries had derailed Monahan’s career so severely that the Flames paid a future first-round pick to the Canadiens just so they would absorb his contract. Since that trade, Monahan has had a bit of a career revival, leading a young Canadiens squad to a surprisingly competent start and scoring at a far better rate than he’s done in the past two seasons.

So far this year, Monahan has scored 17 points in 25 games. He’s battling an injury again, but it’s not one that’s expected to keep him from making his return to the lineup with a ways to go left in the season.

While Monahan’s struggles with injuries may give teams pause about a major long-term commitment, his play in Montreal has been a resoundingly positive development for his career. He may not receive the kind of contract he once looked in line to cash in on, but he’ll likely still be an in-demand piece if he can keep up this career rebirth when he returns from IR.

Max Domi, Chicago Blackhawks

From one angle, it seems as though Domi’s decision to take a one-year, $3MM deal last summer from the Blackhawks was done largely to put himself in the best possible position for a summer of 2023 free agency. So far, he’s done just that.

After a season that saw him play unevenly with the Columbus Blue Jackets and be traded to the Carolina Hurricanes at the deadline, Domi signed with Chicago likely with the hopes that his natural offensive talent would mesh with that of the Blackhawks’ franchise face, Patrick Kane.

Domi has indeed played with Kane, and while they are far from a perfect partnership, they are first and second on the Blackhawks in scoring, with Kane at 22 points in 31 games and Domi at 21 in 31.

There has always been the possibility of a higher offensive ceiling with Domi, who scored 72 points in 2018-19, but he wasn’t able to reach that point in Columbus or in his short stay in Carolina.

While Domi is undeniably an extremely talented player on an individual basis, his vision can be lacking at times and he doesn’t always play as a member of a three-player unit, sometimes preferring to use his tantalizing skills on his own to create offense without thinking about how he can best utilize the players on the ice with him.

In the right fit, Domi can thrive, and with a bit of luck, he’s shown that he can be among a team’s top scorers. But he’s far from a sure thing. If Domi can play well after his seemingly inevitable midseason trade to a contender, and finish near his current scoring pace of 56 points, he’ll enter the market on stronger footing than he did last season.

Jordan Staal, Carolina Hurricanes

Staal is in a similar position to Toews and Bergeron, even though he’s not quite the caliber of player they are/were. He’s a beloved face of the franchise in Carolina and in a position where he’s likely to remain there at a reasonable price.

In his recent 32 Thoughts blog, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman stated that “no one is expecting [Staal] to leave Carolina.” Staal has scored 14 points in 33 games so far this year, which is a 34-point pace. That’s right in line with the 36 and 38 points he’s scored in the last two seasons.

Staal still shoulders a major defensive role in Carolina, handling difficult defensive matchups and playing the most time on the penalty kill of any Hurricanes forward. Although the Hurricanes’ short-handed unit has taken a bit of a step back so far this year, that won’t stop Staal from earning a market-rate extension in Carolina if that’s the path he chooses.

The Role Players

Erik Haula, New Jersey Devils

Haula, who will be 32 when free agency opens next year, has entered a bit of a journeyman phase in his career. He’s played for six different teams in the past half-decade and could play for his eighth NHL franchise if he leaves the New Jersey Devils this summer.

A versatile forward who can play center or on the wing, Haula plays a Swiss Army Knife role, scoring at a 35-point pace and on the Devils’ second penalty-killing unit.

Haula’s age may keep him from a long-term pact, but his stock is holding steady as he provides steady veteran two-way play to a young Devils team that’s had an extremely impressive season.

Frederick Gaudreau, Minnesota Wild

Gaudreau is a bit of a late bloomer, getting his first complete season as a full-time NHLer at the age of 28. He didn’t waste that opportunity, though, scoring 14 goals and 44 points in 76 games.

This year, Gaudreau’s offense hasn’t gotten back to that point, as he has just 14 points in 33 games. But he averages the most short-handed ice time per game on the Wild, helping Minnesota’s penalty-kill to an above-average 13th-place rank so far this year.

His free agency will be somewhat difficult to predict, as he’ll have only two seasons on his resume as an everyday NHLer. But as of right now while his stock is down from where it was last season, he’s still put himself in a strong position for an undrafted former minor leaguer.

 Lars Eller, Washington Capitals

While Eller, who will be 34 during free agency, isn’t the player he once was, he’s still providing value for the Capitals. He plays a reliable two-way game and has scored 13 points in 34 games. He’s a veteran who is in his seventh year as a Capital and has a Stanley Cup-winning goal on his resume.

His stock is down from where it might have been a few years ago when he was one of the league’s best third-line centers and comfortably capable of scoring 15 goals and 35-40 points. But in a league where centers are always in demand, Eller has kept up his play enough to put him in a solid position if he enters the market next year.

Oskar Sundqvist, Detroit Red Wings

Versatility is the name of the game with Sundqvist. The Red Wings, like the Blues for many years, have deployed Sundqvist in all sorts of roles, as a center or winger, as a physical fourth-liner, or as a complementary piece next to skilled players such as Pius Suter and Dominik Kubalik.

But just as versatility is what Sundqvist is the constant of Sundqvist’s game, so is battling injury issues. Sundqvist’s career-high for games played in a season is 74, and that came all the way back in 2018-19. Since that point, Sundqvist hasn’t managed to cross the 60-point mark in any given year.

The trouble he’s had staying healthy will likely be his biggest question mark on the market. Teams know what he can bring on the ice, but they might question how often he can do so. Still, so far this season Sundqvist’s play in Detroit has pushed his stock up, and what could really sustain that upward trend as he gets closer to free agency would be a continued clean bill of health.

David Kampf, Toronto Maple Leafs

An undrafted player out of the Czech Republic, Kampf is in line to cash in after turning in quality play in a bottom-six role on one of the NHL’s biggest stages. In his first year in Toronto, Kampf scored 11 goals and 26 points, while also playing nearly two and a half minutes per night on one of the league’s better penalty kills.

This year, Kampf has resumed his role anchoring the Maple Leafs’ play with a man in the box and has scored at a 31-point pace. His stock has been moving steadily upward since he arrived in Toronto.

While part of that is likely due to the fact that the size and fervor of the Toronto market magnified his performances, attributing his rising stock to the Toronto factor alone would be doing a disservice to the hard work Kampf has put forth. He’s genuinely turned himself into a reliable, quality NHL bottom-sixer.

Kampf isn’t going to break the bank, but he’ll be a 28-year-old free agent with two straight strong years on his resume in a massive market.

If he chooses to head to free agency, there’ll most definitely be interest from across the league. The only potential threat to his market could be the flat cap, as defense-first bottom-six players like Kampf could be the first in line to be squeezed in the market by the leaguewide lack of cap space.

Teddy Blueger, Pittsburgh Penguins

Blueger, 28, returned from a season-opening injury and looks like he hasn’t missed a beat. The Latvian has been a responsible bottom-six center for the Penguins, scoring 28 points in 65 games last year. He has six points in 18 games this year and has resumed his role as a defensive specialist.

As mentioned with Kampf, it’s possible that a minimal cap increase squeezes defensive specialist players into smaller contracts than they likely deserve. We saw that happen with Zach Aston-Reese last summer, as he is a capable defensive winger who was forced to sign a PTO with Toronto in the absence of suitable full contract offers.

With that in mind, it may be in Blueger’s best interest to take a one-year deal and re-enter the market in a raised-cap environment. His stock at the moment remains as steady as his play, but will the market be able to catch up?

Tomas Nosek, Boston Bruins

Nosek, 30, is the fourth-line center on what is right now the NHL’s best team. He plays responsibly in his own end, kills penalties, and chips in some offense once in a while. And now that he’s a veteran of over 350 NHL games, it’s become clear that this is the kind of player Nosek is at this point in his career, there’s no real mystery there.

He’s a consistent presence, and his consistency extends to his offensive production, where he is scoring at an 18-point pace after scoring 17 last season. There is always a place for guys like Nosek in the league, even if he doesn’t end up cashing in on a major contract.

Nick Bonino, San Jose Sharks

A veteran of nearly 800 NHL games, Bonino is a known quantity across the NHL. The two-time Stanley Cup champion will be 35 by the time free agency opens next year, and without an extension will be searching for the seventh NHL home of his career.

Bonino brings value defensively and has shown some recent flashes offensively, scoring 16 goals last season. He has four goals and nine points in 32 games this season. Looking just at his offensive production, it appears his stock is down, but with the Sharks’ penalty kill firing on all cylinders with Bonino a major part of it, one has to imagine he’s not fretting about his NHL future too much.

Others Of Note

Nick Bjugstad, Arizona Coyotes

The 30-year-old veteran signed a one-year, $900K deal in Arizona after a challenging two-year stretch in Minnesota. He’s been exactly as advertised for Arizona, scoring seven goals in 31 games. The Coyotes are a bad team, but Bjugstad has been decent and his play this year should be enough to protect his spot and earn him a deal for next season, even if it does end up being around his current $900K cap hit.

Noel Acciari, St. Louis Blues

Acciari is in a similar position to Bjugstad as a shoot-fist bottom-sixer with some goal-scoring luck so far this year. The 31-year-old has eight goals in 33 games and has managed to hold down a regular spot in St. Louis, playing anywhere from the first to fourth line.

His play likely merits a deal around what he’s earning against the cap right now, $1.25MM, but the flat salary cap could make squeezing out every last dollar a bit more of a difficult prospect, potentially making a sub-$1MM deal more likely.

Derek Stepan, Carolina Hurricanes

While Acciari and Bjugstad have found some scoring luck, the same cannot be said about Stepan. The former New York Ranger has scored just four points in 30 games so far this year.

While Stepan’s name still carries some value to some, a player’s play always does the most talking. in 2022-23, Stepan’s play has been silent, and it could cost him on the open market.