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Free Agent Focus 2021

Free Agent Focus: Edmonton Oilers

at CDT | by 2 Comments

Free agency is now just under a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Edmonton has already taken care of their most notable potential unrestricted free agent but they still have some important veterans on expiring contracts.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Kailer Yamamoto – There was some disappointment in the first half of his contract as the 21-year-old couldn’t get established as a regular.  Then same the second half of 2019-20 where he was nearly a point per game player on their second line.  That led to high expectations for this season which weren’t met.  However, he still managed a respectable 21 points in 52 games, playing as a full-time regular for the first time.  Given Yamamoto’s limited NHL experience, a short-term contract is likely and it will be interesting to see what he winds up with.  His half-season showing last season is enough to give him a bit of leverage but his numbers this year will limit his earnings upside.

F Jujhar Khaira – The 26-year-old hasn’t been able to produce much over his career and only managed three goals and eight assists in 40 games this season.  However, he is one of Edmonton’s more effective penalty killers and is a good fit on their fourth line.  A $1.3MM qualifying offer is on the high side, especially since Khaira has arbitration rights.  If they can’t work a deal out by the July 26th deadline, there’s a decent chance that he will be non-tendered.

F Dominik Kahun – A surprising non-tender last summer after Buffalo opted to avoid the risk of an arbitration award that was too high for their liking, Kahun wound up settling for a one-year, $975K contract, a deal that looked like a bargain given the fact he had two straight seasons over 30 points.  However, he didn’t play well for long stretches in Edmonton and could be heading for a similar fate later this month unless they can agree to terms on a similarly-priced deal over the next few weeks.

Other RFAs: F Tyler Benson, D Theodor Lennstrom, F Cooper Marody, G Stuart Skinner, G Dylan Wells

Key Unrestricted Free Agents:

D Tyson Barrie – After a disappointing season in Toronto leading into unrestricted free agency a year ago, Barrie opted for the best fit in the fall over the best contract.  The move turned out to be a wise one as he led all NHL blueliners in points with 48 in 56 games.  In doing so, he should have a stronger market now than he did in the fall and should be able to get a bigger contract.  However, he turns 30 just before reaching the open market and as someone that isn’t known for his play in his own end, Barrie isn’t going to command top dollar like Dougie Hamilton will if he reaches free agency.  Barrie should have a good chance to reach the $5.5MM AAV he had on his previous contract with Colorado and Toronto which would still represent a nice raise on the $3.75MM he made this season and, perhaps more importantly, land a multi-year deal in the process.

D Adam Larsson – At this point, he seems to be the priority to re-sign for Edmonton with recent progress being made on that front.  The 28-year-old is a steady defensive presence and since he doesn’t put up many points, he isn’t going to be able to command a big raise, if he gets one at all.  Something in the high $3MM to low $4MM range seems like a reasonable fit for Larsson which would allow him to get a deal similar to the one he just finished up while still giving the Oilers some cap flexibility to try to add to their roster.

G Mike Smith – After Edmonton wasn’t able to land a longer-term fit between the pipes in the fall, they opted to re-sign Smith in a move that worked out quite well for them in the end.  The 39-year-old posted his highest save percentage (.923) and lowest goals against average (2.31) in a decade and lost only six of his 30 starts in regulation time.  That would seemingly have him in line for a raise on the $1.5MM base salary he made this season but his age will likely limit his suitors, holding his market back accordingly.  The Oilers would be wise to look for a longer-term fit once again but if they can’t find one, circling back to Smith makes sense.  Assuming he signs another one-year deal, he’ll be eligible for performance bonuses again, giving them some extra short-term wiggle room on the cap.

Other UFAs: F Alex Chiasson, F Tyler Ennis, F Joseph Gambardella, D Slater Koekkoek, D Dmitry Kulikov, F Alan Quine, F Patrick Russell

Projected Cap Space

The Oilers have a little over $16MM in cap space at the moment and those amounts could increase if they opt to buy out goalie Mikko Koskinen or winger James Neal.  A new deal for Larsson will cut about a quarter of that room out and a starting goalie will eat into that as well with Smith costing about half of what a longer-term option should.  Yamamoto is the only RFA of significance so there should be some room for GM Ken Holland to work with regardless of what happens between the pipes.  The question becomes whether they should spend it on one impact piece or spread it out to give themselves better depth throughout the roster.  They have a few more weeks to determine which way they want to go.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Detroit Red Wings

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Free agency is now less than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. The Red Wings, who have been quietly collecting assets for the last few seasons, could start to dip their toes into the UFA waters.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Jakub Vrana – At the deadine this season, instead of just selling, Red Wings’ GM Steve Yzerman took a bit of a different approach. Sure, he traded away core forward Anthony Mantha for a package that included two high draft picks, but the biggest piece coming back was Vrana, a 25-year-old forward who had already found a lot of success in the NHL. The deal immediately paid dividends (for both teams) as Vrana scored eight goals and 11 points in 11 games down the stretch in Detroit, including a four-goal effort against the Dallas Stars. He now enters the offseason as one of the team’s most important restricted free agents, though how Yzerman will handle his negotiation isn’t clear. With several seasons of NHL action under his belt, Vrana is arbitration-eligible and could reach unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2023. That means a long-term deal would be buying out most of the years with the highest earning potential, likely driving the average annual value way up. A short-term deal could be beneficial to both parties, especially if the Red Wings have any thought of flipping him for more futures at some point.

F Tyler Bertuzzi – Speaking of flipping an asset, Bertuzzi is now just a year away from unrestricted free agency and arbitration-eligible once again. That means he could potentially wait for the one-year contract given by the arbitrator and walk into UFA status at 27, but there is certainly risk on Bertuzzi’s part. For one thing, he played just nine games this season and underwent back surgery at the end of April. He is supposed to be healthy in time for the start of 2021-22, but who knows how his body will react after such a long layoff. There are other teams in the league who would covet the bang-and-crash style of the 26-year-old, and he very well could be a trade candidate in the coming weeks. Just like Mantha, Bertuzzi might be just a little too old to be part of the next wave in Detroit.

Other RFAs: F Adam Erne, F Evgeny Svechnikov, F Michael Rasmussen, F Mathias Brome, F Givani Smith, F Hayden Verbeek, F Chase Pearson, D Christian Djoos, D Filip Hronek, D Dennis Cholowski, D Gustav Lindstrom

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Luke Glendening – Is it finally time for the defensive specialist to leave Detroit? Glendening has been in trade rumors for the last half-decade, always a candidate to be moved to a contender at the deadline. It has never actually happened though, meaning the 32-year-old has played his entire 554-game NHL career with the Red Wings. One thing he hasn’t experienced much of during that time? Offensive zone faceoffs, as he has been hammered by defensive zone starts his entire career. There’s almost no offense there, and Glendening certainly isn’t the skater he once was, but his faceoff prowess is still a weapon on the penalty kill and in key defensive situations. He won nearly 61% of his draws this season, trailing only Patrice Bergeron in that category league-wide.

D Marc Staal – When Staal came to Detroit, it was a simple cap dump by the New York Rangers to free up more room on the back end for young players. Then he went and became one of the Red Wings most reliable defensemen, averaging more than 18 minutes a night against the opponent’s best. Suddenly, he seems like a realistic extension candidate for Detroit, who could help insulate some of the younger names that will be added to the lineup next season. The 34-year-old is nearing the end of his career and has made almost $55MM over the course of nearly 1,000 games; he shouldn’t be very expensive if Yzerman wants to bring him back.

G Jonathan Bernier – Undersized goalies can’t get it done? Tell that to Bernier, who has quietly been an effective NHL option for more than a decade. Now 32, he’s coming off another strong season in Detroit where he posted a .914 save percentage in 24 appearances. There’s a reasonable chance that Bernier could be a 1B option on a contending team, but there’s also a good argument to be made for the Red Wings to bring him back. He worked fine with Thomas Greiss this season and Detroit doesn’t have a minor league netminder truly banging down the door for an NHL opportunity.

Other UFAs: F Bobby Ryan, F Sam Gagner, F Valtteri Filppula, F Darren Helm, F Henrik Zetterberg, F Turner Elson, F Dominic Turgeon, F Kyle Criscuolo, F Taro Hirose, D Dylan McIlrath, D Joe Hicketts, D Alex Biega, G Calvin Pickard, G Kevin Boyle

Projected Cap Space

Part of the rebuild that Yzerman has done in Detroit, along with accumulating lots of draft picks, is clearing the books of any real long-term money. In fact, after trading Mantha, the team has just two players signed to one-way contracts through the 2022-23 season. That means nearly the entire cap is his to play with going forward, with more than $48MM this offseason in particular. If the team wants to sign players, they have the room.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Dallas Stars

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Free agency is now just under a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Dallas has a handful of veterans that will be reaching unrestricted free agency but their biggest contract this summer will be their top young defenseman.

Key Restricted Free Agents

D Miro Heiskanen – The highest-picked defenseman from the 2017 draft class (third overall) didn’t waste much time establishing himself as a focal part of Dallas’ back end and logged nearly 25 minutes per game this season.  He wasn’t able to maintain his strong production from the bubble last summer but still managed 27 points in 55 games which is above average for a defenseman.  A big payday is coming with the question being how long the contract will be.  The Stars would undoubtedly love to give him a max-term eight-year contract, buying four extra years of team control in the process.  However, with the cap flat now and Heiskanen not eligible for arbitration this time around, a bridge deal would give him a chance to improve his numbers and enter negotiations in hopefully a better financial environment plus arbitration rights.

F Jason Dickinson – His offensive numbers on a per game basis were comparable to his previous two seasons which saw him surpass the 20-point mark.  But Dickinson is known more for defensive prowess and was tied for second in SH ATOI among Dallas forwards.  He’s a capable third-liner who can play the wing and down the middle, making him a useful player to have.  However, Dickinson is owed a $1.6MM qualifying offer with arbitration rights that could push the price tag into the $2MM range.  If the Stars want to buy themselves some extra wiggle room this summer, that might be a bit too pricey.  Accordingly, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Dallas try to get something done before the qualifying offer deadline.

F Joel Kiviranta – After spending most of 2019-20 in the minors, the 25-year-old didn’t see any AHL action this season and got into a career-best 26 NHL games where he had 11 points.  Kiviranta is best known from his play in the bubble where he had five goals in 14 postseason contests last summer but that alone won’t give him too much leverage in talks even though he’s arbitration-eligible.  He should be able to get a small raise from the $925K he made on his entry-level deal but not too much more than that.

Other RFAs: F Nicholas Caamano, D Joseph Cecconi, D Ben Gleason, D Julius Honka, F Adam Mascherin, G Colton Point, D Jerad Rosberg

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

D Jamie Oleksiak – It was a disappointing year for quite a few Dallas veterans but that wasn’t the case for Oleksiak.  The 28-year-old stepped into a regular role in the top four for the first time in his career and responded with arguably his best NHL season, notching 14 points while logging over 20 minutes a game.  He’s not the fastest of skaters – few his size are – but Oleksiak is a capable stay-at-home defender and may be starting to show some offensive potential as well, scoring six goals during the season after notching five last postseason.  There was trade interest in him at the deadline and given his age and improvement, he should be able to land a bit more than the $2.5MM salary he received this year if he makes it to the open market.

F Andrew Cogliano – In his prime, Cogliano was a speedy two-way forward.  However, in recent years, the production has tailed off for the 34-year-old who is basically just a checker now.  There is still a market for those types of players but it will have to come at a much lower price tag than the $3.25MM he made over each of the past three seasons.  Half of that may be tough to get, even.

D Sami Vatanen – This was a tough season for Vatanen, to put it lightly.  After not getting much interest in free agency, he opted to go back to New Jersey in the hopes of building his value back up.  It didn’t happen.  Instead, he dropped to the third pairing, didn’t produce much (six points in 30 games isn’t great for a blueliner known for some timely offense), and wound up being waived after they couldn’t find a trade taker for him.  That’s what got Vatanen to Dallas where he did even less.  After taking less than half of his previous contract for this season (from $4.875MM to $2MM), another cut is coming for the 30-year-old.

Other UFAs: G Landon Bow, F Justin Dowling, D Taylor Fedun, D/F Mark Pysyk

Projected Cap Space

The Stars currently have a little over $15MM in cap space with 16 players signed.  That’s not a bad spot to be in although more than half of that will go to Heiskanen if they can get any sort of medium or long-term deal in place.  If that happens, they’ll basically be filling out the rest of the roster with cheap contracts and basically be at the Upper Limit.  Barring trades, it could be a quiet summer for Dallas.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Colorado Avalanche

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Free agency is now just a little more than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. The Avalanche have their captain to sign, but he isn’t even the most important deal they have to complete.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Tyson Jost – Not the first player you think of when you think of pending free agents on the Avalanche, but an important negotiation just the same. Jost, 23, is an interesting case study to watch this summer after signing his qualifying offer last year. For one thing, he is now arbitration-eligible, meaning the negotiation will be taken out of their hands if necessary, but the young forward has still not taken the developmental step that many expected. Selected 10th overall in 2016, Jost quickly became a regular in the Colorado lineup, but has failed to record more than 26 points in a single season. His average ice time increased this year to over 14 minutes, but he still had just seven goals and 17 points to show for it. Can he be a long-term piece in the middle-six, or will Jost try to maximize earnings by reaching free agency as quickly as possible? Because he has already completed four seasons, he’s just three years away from unrestricted free agency and won’t have to wait until he’s 27.

D Cale Makar – This is the player that everyone is watching in Colorado as he gets set for his first contract negotiation. Makar has played two seasons in the NHL and could very well have two major trophies to show for it. After winning the Calder in year one, he is a finalist for the Norris Trophy as the league’s best defenseman in just his sophomore campaign. There’s a very real argument to be made that he is the most valuable defenseman in the league right now and a contract indicative of that is likely coming down the pipe. As Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet wrote yesterday, any talk of long-term extensions will have to start at Thomas Chabot’s eight-year, $64MM extension in 2019 and go up from there. Makar (along with fellow young stars Miro Heiskanen and Quinn Hughes) is ahead of Chabot in terms of early-career success and any new contract could end up making him one of the highest-paid defenseman in the league straight out of his entry-level deal. Currently, there are only four defensemen in the league with an average annual value of $9MM or more; Erik Karlsson ($11.5MM), Drew Doughty ($11.0MM), Roman Josi ($9.06MM), and P.K. Subban ($9.0MM). If the Avalanche want to go max-term with Makar, that group is almost certainly going to grow.

Other RFAs: F Kiefer Sherwood, F Travis Barron, F Ty Lewis, D Dennis Gilbert, D Conor Timmins, G Peyton Jones, G Adam Werner

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Gabriel Landeskog – A second-overall pick steps directly into the NHL, wins the Calder Trophy as the league’s top rookie, and is named captain before his sophomore season. That’s how Landeskog’s story started, and ten years into his career he has established himself as a true franchise icon. Even though there have been other players that take the spotlight at times, the 28-year-old winger has been a constant driving force behind any success the Avalanche have experienced and already sits among the franchise greats on many all-time lists. Seventh in games played, sixth in goals, eighth in points, even if Landeskog doesn’t play another game in an Avalanche sweater, he has made quite the impact on the franchise. That’s why it seems so unlikely that they let him go at this point, especially after another outstanding season.

The problem is that there is only so much money, and given how big of a contract Makar is looking at, the Avalanche won’t be dealing with a ton of cap space. Landeskog scored 52 points in 54 games this season and is the kind of physical, heart-and-soul player that would be coveted by every other team in the league. If he wants to check the open market there will be plenty of suitors waiting to snatch him up. That includes the Seattle Kraken, who will get a chance to speak with him ahead of everyone else should Landeskog still not be signed by 48 hours before the expansion draft. It seems entirely reasonable to assume Colorado already has a deal done with Landeskog that will be announced after that expansion draft is completed, but until those papers are filed, other teams can certainly dream.

G Philipp Grubauer – Oh that cap space problem? Don’t forget that the Avalanche don’t currently have a starting goaltender for next season, as their Vezina finalist is also a pending UFA. Grubauer put together the best season of his career at the perfect time, recording a .922 save percentage in 40 appearances. Though he has put up those kinds of save numbers in the past, one of the biggest questions that followed him was whether he could carry the load of a true starting goaltender. Well, strapping on the pads for 40/56 games in a condensed schedule certainly answers that question, especially when it results in 30 wins. Of course, there was a few slip-ups in the postseason, which may cause teams to hesitate when drawing up a long-term contract, but there is still little doubt that Grubauer will receive a substantial raise on the three-year, $10MM deal he signed in 2018. Still just 29, he is Colorado’s best option and at the same time could have played himself out of their price range.

Other UFAs: F Brandon Saad, F Liam O’Brien, F Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, F Matt Calvert, F T.J. Tynan, F Mike Vecchione, F Sheldon Dries, D Patrik Nemeth, D Kyle Burroughs, D Dan Renouf, G Devan Dubnyk

Projected Cap Space

The good news: Colorado has nearly $25.5MM in cap space. The bad news: the rest is owed to just 11 players. Normally, players like Saad and Timmins would be front and center on any examination of pending free agents, but on the Avalanche they are secondary to the big fish that need new deals. GM Joe Sakic simply isn’t going to be able to keep everyone around to run back the same group in 2021-22, meaning difficult decisions will have to be made. Can they fit in a long-term deal for Makar alongside healthy extensions for Landeskog and Grubauer? What kind of cap space will that leave them with to fill out the rest of the roster? One important factor is the health and future of Erik Johnson, who ended the year on long-term injured reserve. He played just four games this season and though he skated with the team, didn’t appear in the postseason. His $6MM cap hit could be extremely useful to the Avalanche in other areas, but he’s also an important part of the leadership group in Colorado.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Chicago Blackhawks

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Free agency is now just a little more than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. The Chicago Blackhawks are one of those teams with numerous RFA’s of note, but fortunately few UFA’s to concern themselves with.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Brandon Hagel – Oftentimes when late-round draft picks produce big numbers later in their junior careers, it is more of a function of experience and maturity than an indicator of NHL ability. It seemed that way with Hagel, who recorded 102 points in his final season in the WHL, but played just one game with the Blackhawks in his first pro season in 2019-20. It doesn’t look that way anymore. Hagel recorded 24 points in 52 games with Chicago as a rookie this year, finishing fifth on the team in scoring. The 22-year-old earned increasingly more ice time and special teams responsibilities as he never slowed down. Hagel looks a like a two-way forward with 20-goal and 40-point upside and that is after only one year. Chicago would be smart to lock him into a multi-year extension before his stock can rise any higher.

F Pius Suter – Another European import, another home run. Just a year after Dominik Kubalik earned Calder Trophy votes as a 24-year-old in his first season in North America, Suter made a major impact in his debut as well. He may not be the same caliber of player as Kubalik, but with 14 goals and 27 points in 55 games he is assuredly an NHL caliber player. The Blackhawks need the depth at center too, where Suter was able to line up without issue. He may have been new to the league, but Suter did not play like a rookie, logging big minutes and finishing fourth in scoring. Chicago has nailed another free agency addition and won’t let this one season be the end of it. However, Suter’s age and arbitration rights give him far more leverage in negotiations than Hagel, a 10.2(c) limited RFA.

D Nikita Zadorov – Unlike Hagel and Suter, Zadorov is not an easy extension. He has a long, up-and-down history, failed to meet expectations in his first season in Chicago, and comes at a much higher price tag. He is also eligible for salary arbitration and has the NHL experience to make it a complicated case. Do the Blackhawks offer Zadorov a qualifying offer? Do they protect him in the Expansion Draft? Do they comply with an arbitration decision? These are all difficult questions when it comes to a player that is hard to peg. Zadorov has considerable experience, great size and checking ability, and plays the position competently enough to eat minutes. However, he also contributes little offensively, is a turnover liability, and is seemingly in decline already at 26. There is no easy answer when it comes to Zadorov, especially in light of the team’s salary cap issues, but Chicago likely will not want to lose him for nothing. By adding Riley Stillman this season, they do have a fallback plan if Zadorov departs, but they would likely prefer that to be on their own terms via trade. If the Blackhawks go through the effort to protect Zadorov from expansion and to negotiate a new contract, they need to be prepared to keep him if a suitable trade offer does not appear.

Other RFAs: F Josh Dickinson, F Adam Gaudette, F David Kampf, D Alexander Nylander

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Vinnie Hinostroza – It didn’t work out in Florida for Hinostroza, who signed a one-year with the Panthers last off-season but played a minor role in just nine games with the team before he was traded. Fortunately, he was dealt back to a team that he was familiar with in Chicago and his performance changed immediately. After a scoreless season in Florida, Hinostroza recorded four goals and 12 points in 17 games down the stretch, far and away the best per-game production of his NHL career. Hinostroza was active on the ice, meshed well with his teammates, and looked like a natural fit back with the Blackhawks. Although he excelled in Chicago, overall it was still a down year for Hinostroza, which could mean he is willing to re-sign at a low price. Yet, over the previous three years, one of which was with the Blackhawks, Hinostroza scored at a close to 40-point full-season pace and his play down the stretch implies he might be able to replicate those numbers if he stays with the team. There should be mutual interest in getting a deal done.

Other UFAs: D Anton Lindholm (Group 6),F Brandon Pirri, F John Quenneville (Group 6), F Zack Smith

Projected Cap Space

Given their salary cap situation, it is good that the Blackhawks’ impact free agents are almost all RFA’s, where the team holds the leverage, and not UFA’s, where the player holds the leverage. Chicago has over $75MM already tied up in 24 contract, per CapFriendly. That number is not exactly a realistic estimate as many of those deals are waiver-exempt entry-level contracts and the combined $10.775MM of Brent Seabrook and Andrew Shaw will be placed on Long-Term Injured Reserve, as neither will play again. However, that still leaves the Blackhawks with less than $17MM in cap space with the aforementioned Gaudette, Hagel, Kampf, Nylander, Suter, and Zadorov all in need of new contracts. That averages out to under $2.8MM per RFA starter, which is likely an unrealistic benchmark. The Seattle Kraken may lighten the RFA load for Chicago, but with Hinostroza also in need of a new deal and the Blackhawks ideally looking to add an impact two-way forward to assist with penalty killing, things are looking tight for the Blackhawks.

Free Agent Focus: Carolina Hurricanes

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Free agency is now just a little more than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Coming off a disappointing playoff exit, the Carolina Hurricanes have an extremely eventful summer ahead of them.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Andrei Svechnikov – Despite taking a small step back this season offensively, Svechnikov was a large part of arguably the most successful regular season in Hurricanes history. While seeing the highest ice time of his career, Svechnikov dipped below the 20-goal mark for the first time in his career and was moved up and down the lineup under coach Rod Brind’Amour. It’s not all bad for the young Russian winger, though, as he still managed a respectable 42 points in 55 contests. It was largely a better effort defensively this season for Svechnikov as well, still boosting his value as he earned those extra minutes. With proven 20-goal ability and 30- and even 40-goal potential, Svechnikov likely sees a huge raise on his entry-level contract in the neighborhood of $6MM. It’s interesting to note that Svechnikov is not eligible for arbitration, meaning that negotiations will have to be resolved purely between the team and his agent.

F Warren Foegele – It was another solid season for the 25-year-old forward, who’s settling nicely into a third-line scoring role with Carolina. After being drafted 67th overall in 2014, Foegele crossed the 200-game threshold with his final game of the 2020-21 season. Even through shortened seasons, Foegele’s now scored between 10 and 15 goals in three straight campaigns with his ice time creeping up year by year. He’s trusted in both zones by the coaching staff, and a longer-term, lower-dollar deal could end up benefitting both sides down the road.

G Alex Nedeljkovic – One of the two Calder Trophy finalists who’s up for a new deal next season, Nedeljkovic was a pleasant surprise this season that helped stabilize the Carolina crease. Nedeljkovic sported a sparkling .932 save percentage to lead the league in that category, paired with a 15-5-3 record. Nedeljkovic continued his strong play into the playoffs, as his .920 mark was more than enough to keep the team competitive. He’ll indisputably be given the inside track on the starters’ job next season in Carolina, and will likely earn a short-term, Jordan Binnington-esque contract this offseason.

Other RFAs: F Yegor Korshkov, F Morgan Geekie, F Spencer Smallman, D Jake Bean, D Maxime Lajoie, G Jeremy Helvig

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

D Dougie Hamilton – While he didn’t have the ideal contract year, Hamilton will be a huge commodity this offseason. A respectable offensive force on the blueline, Hamilton finished 2020-21 with his seventh straight 10-goal campaign. His ability in transition is huge in ensuring that his team is the one with the puck on their sticks, and his 6′ 6″ frame isn’t exactly something to mess with. With a 62-point pace this season over 82 games, he continues to be one of the highest-scoring defenders in the league. The demand for UFA defensemen this season is high, and rumors of a sign-and-trade have swirled surrounding Hamilton. While it’s seeming unlikely he’ll return to Raleigh, there’s always a chance.

G Petr Mrazek – Injuries largely forced Mrazek into a backup role this season. However, it didn’t impact his play when he was in the net – he had arguably one of the best seasons of his career. His .923 save percentage was his highest as a Hurricane, and while his 12-game sample size is certainly a prohibiting factor, it only reinforces Mrazek’s reputation as one of the best tandem netminders in the league. With Nedeljkovic assuming the starting role, it’s unlikely Mrazek will be content to return as a backup. Another team can promise more games and more dollars, which will likely be deserved for the 29-year-old Czech native.

F Brock McGinn – The proposition of McGinn returning to the Canes is, at this point, anybody’s guess. While he showed flashes of strong potential with a 30-point season in 2017-18, McGinn, now 27, has cooled off since then. He’s still been a solid depth contributor, and he even saw some ice time with Sebastian Aho on the first line this season. But with the strength of Carolina’s prospect pool, it may not make much sense to re-sign an aging, declining depth winger. With nearly 350 games of NHL experience, he’ll find a home next season, whether it’s in Carolina or not.

Other UFAs: F Cedric Paquette, F Jordan Martinook, F Max McCormick, F Sheldon Rempal, F David Gust, D Jani Hakanpaa, D Roland McKeown, G James Reimer, G Antoine Bibeau

Projected Cap Space

The Hurricanes have been smart in building a contender, signing players to affordable longer-team deals. It puts Carolina in a position to add big this offseason with nearly $30MM in cap space. They can’t be too playful with their cash, however. After all, they have both goalie spots to fill in addition to big contracts due on both offense and defense. With Nino Niederreiter, Vincent Trocheck, and Martin Necas all in need of extensions after 2021-22, this offseason could be crucial in maintaining long-term success in Carolina.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Calgary Flames

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Free agency is now just a little more than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next summer will be more interesting for Calgary free agent-wise, but there’s still lots to do this time around.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Dillon Dube – This season was supposed to bring a breakout for Dube, and although he did set career-highs in goals and points, it certainly wasn’t the step forward many were hoping for. The 22-year-old forward saw his ice time fall once head coach Darryl Sutter took over, even sitting in the press box as a healthy scratch on occasion. Overall, he averaged less than 14 minutes a night in 2020-21, a far cry from the core piece that he is expected to become. In 51 appearances, Dube ended up with 11 goals and 22 points, still flashing top-six potential at times. But there is a lot of work to be done to gain the trust of Sutter and his contract this summer should reflect that. With just 18 goals through his first 121 games, Dube won’t be able to demand a huge raise and could maybe even be forced to settle for his qualifying offer, given he is not yet arbitration-eligible.

D Juuso Valimaki – The player that Dube shared the press box with on occasion? 22-year-old defenseman Valimaki, who was also called out by Sutter late in the season. “If they become better players, this team becomes better” was the eyebrow-raising quote from the head coach in May, after another Valimaki healthy scratch. The 2017 first-round pick ended up averaging just over 15 minutes a night in 49 games, putting him behind even depth options like Michael Stone and Nikita Nesterov. Because Valimaki missed the entire 2019-20 season due to injury, he actually will actually have even more restrictions this summer. He is not eligible for an offer sheet and is not eligible for arbitration, meaning just like Dube, he may have to settle for his qualifying offer if the two sides don’t work out a multi-year deal.

Other RFAs: F Glenn Gawdin, F Dominik Simon, F Justin Kirkland, F Matthew Phillips, F Luke Philp, D Oliver Kylington, D Connor Mackey, D Carl-Johan Lerby, D Alexander Yelesin, D Colton Poolman, G Tyler Parsons, G Artyom Zagidulin

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Derek Ryan – If Ryan is the most important free agent forward you are at risk of losing you’re in a good spot, but he’s actually an interesting extension candidate for the Flames. The 34-year-old center is still a capable penalty killer and you could do far worse for a fourth-line center, but his real value would come in the expansion draft, where Calgary needs players to fill the exposure requirements upfront. While it sounds like Milan Lucic will be waiving his no-movement clause to fill one spot, the team will need one of the other regulars from this season to sign a deal in the coming weeks.

G Louis Domingue – It’s not really that Domingue is a must-sign player for the Flames, but he represents a position that will need to be filled somehow. The team has Jacob Markstrom locked in as the starter, but they will need a backup goaltender that can help give him some time off or even take the net for a little while. David Rittich, who was supposed to be that option, was traded at the deadline, and Domingue likely isn’t the answer. While he does have a .904 save percentage in 140 NHL appearances, that number is boosted by some early-career stats. Over the past two seasons, he has posted an .882 in 18 games, certainly not enough to play tandem to Markstrom.

Other UFAs: F Brett Ritchie, F Buddy Robinson, F Josh Leivo, F Zac Rinaldo, D Michael Stone, D Nikita Nesterov, D Alex Petrovic

Projected Cap Space

One of the most interesting parts of the offseason for Calgary is how they deal with their big-ticket players who haven’t yet rewarded the team with much playoff success. The Flames have nearly $67MM tied up in just 13 contracts for the 2021-22 season, meaning they have less than $15MM to round out the rest of the roster. With Johnny Gaudreau and Mark Giordano set to hit unrestricted free agency next summer, Sean Monahan, and Lucic the year after, there will be money coming off the books in short order. If any of those contracts are moved out, the team could get a jump on things by being aggressive in free agency this year, knowing there will be a bit more flexibility down the road.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Buffalo Sabres

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Free agency is now just a little more than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Buffalo’s biggest question mark this summer is obviously the fate of the captain, but there are several other pending free agents that also need to be dealt with.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Sam Reinhart – The trade speculation surrounding Jack Eichel has somewhat hidden any Reinhart news, but make no mistake he is also being discussed around the league. Despite being just 25, the RFA forward will be an unrestricted free agent after next season because he has already played six full seasons in the NHL. While he has never quite lived up to the second-overall billing of true franchise-changing star, there’s something to be said for Reinhart’s consistent production on a lackluster team. In five of his six seasons, he has recorded at least 22 goals, even tying his career-high of 25 this year in just 54 games. Reinhart has blown the rest of the Sabres out of the water year after year in possession statistics, and there is a real chance that he could explode into a game-changing presence if surrounded by more talent. Buffalo knows this (or should, at least) and will be holding out for a high price, but there is a ticking clock on the pending RFA. Reinhart can simply go to arbitration with the Sabres this season, receive a raise on the $5.2MM he earned in 2020-21 and then walk if he decides to pursue other opportunities. That would be a real miss on the part of the Buffalo front office, meaning a multi-year extension or a trade seem like the only reasonable options this summer.

F Casey Mittelstadt – If only Mittelstadt had developed the way many expected, Buffalo may not be in the situation they are now. The eighth overall pick from 2017 has still not really established himself as a full-time NHL player, even if this season was a legitimate step forward. In 155 career games he has recorded 61 points, a tough total to swallow when you look at that 2017 draft board and see the likes of Martin Necas and Nick Suzuki selected just a few picks later. Still, there are still plenty of reasons to stay the course with the 22-year-old center and given the fact that he is not yet arbitration-eligible, the Sabres should still get him signed at a reasonable price. There is always the threat of an offer sheet for a young player like Mittelstadt, but in today’s flat cap world it seems extremely unlikely.

D Rasmus Dahlin – In fact, if there was a Sabres RFA to target with an offer sheet, perhaps it would be Dahlin. The first-overall pick from 2018’s entry-level deal is up and he now approaches a negotiation with 107 points in 197 games. Sure, there are real question marks around parts of Dahlin’s game, but the 21-year-old defenseman has still been extremely productive in his first few years. In fact, since he entered the league, Dahlin ranks 20th among all NHL defensemen in points, ahead of players like Zach Werenski, Seth Jones, and Aaron Ekblad. No, he did not have a good 2020-21 season, but the Sabres would be absolutely foolish to be doing anything but locking in Dahlin long-term as soon as possible. He should be part of the solution, not the problem in Buffalo. The question is how long will the player want to go with a contract, coming off such a down year? It does seem to make sense for Dahlin’s camp to push for a bridge contract and then really cash in after his offensive numbers rebound. That delicate dance is what Sabres GM Kevyn Adams will have to navigate as he tries to get Buffalo pointed in the right direction.

Other RFAs: F Rasmus Asplund, F Dawson DiPietro, D William Borgen, D Henri Jokiharju, D Casey Fitzgerald, G Stefanos Lekkas

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

D Jake McCabe – Normally, McCabe would feature prominently in any offseason plans, given his place as a leader on the Sabres. The 27-year-old defenseman has played his entire NHL career in Buffalo to this point, totalling 353 games over parts of eight seasons. Unfortunately, McCabe suffered a major knee injury earlier this year, with damage to his ACL, MCL and meniscus. He was given a recovery timeline between six and eight months in February, meaning there’s a chance he’s ready for the start of next season, but who knows what kind of player is coming back. The Sabres should have the best insight into his recovery, so perhaps a contract extension in Buffalo makes sense. There is a feeling of dramatic change surrounding the team right now though, so cutting ties with a player who has been there through all the losing could make sense.

G Linus Ullmark – This is the real question among unrestricted free agents for the Sabres, as without Ullmark they don’t really have an NHL goaltender for the 2021-22 season. Partner Carter Hutton is also headed for the open market but is now 35 and coming off two brutal seasons. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is the obvious choice as “goaltender of the future” but has just four NHL appearances under his belt. The Sabres have been clear in the fact that they would like to keep Ullmark around, even deciding not to trade him at the deadline in order to continue negotiations. But there’s no deal in place yet, and free agency is creeping closer and closer. In 117 appearances with the Sabres, the 27-year-old Ullmark has posted a .912 save percentage. If he can play that well behind a poor team, there’s good reason to believe that he can be a legitimate playoff-level starter in the NHL. That of course will be known by his representatives too, meaning the Sabres will have to cough up more than the $2.6MM Ullmark made this season in order to keep him in Buffalo.

Other UFAs: F Tobias Rieder, F Riley Sheahan, F Drake Caggiula, F Jean-Sebastien Dea, F Steven Fogarty, F C.J. Smith, D Matt Irwin, D Brandon Davidson, G Carter Hutton, G Michael Houser

Projected Cap Space

The Sabres are one of the worst teams in the league and they also have a pair of terrible contracts on the books. Jeff Skinner and Kyle Okposo combine for a $15MM cap hit this year and next (with Skinner’s $9MM hit lasting long after Okposo’s expires), meaning the $34MM in space listed is a bit deceiving. That’s more than $47MM in salary committed to just ten players for next season and not many of them are all that good. With new deals for so many restricted free agents to come, the cap is going to become a challenge for Buffalo even before dipping into the unrestricted free agent waters. Of course, if trades for Eichel and Rasmus Ristolainen eventually happen, the financial situation looks a lot more reasonable.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Boston Bruins

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Free agency is now just a little more than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Boston is set to have several core players hit the open market, giving them a lot of payroll flexibility to work with in the coming weeks.

Key Restricted Free Agents

D Brandon Carlo – Carlo isn’t going to win any scoring titles but he has been a reliable stay-at-home defenseman throughout his five years in Boston and his absence was certainly felt when multiple upper-body injuries kept him out of the lineup for big stretches in the second half of the season plus the last few games of their series against the Islanders.  He’s owed a $3.5MM qualifying offer next month and despite limited offensive production, they should be comfortable tendering it.  However, it’s also hard to see him getting much more than that despite being arbitration-eligible unless they work out a long-term pact that buys out his two remaining RFA years plus several seasons of UFA eligibility.

F Nick Ritchie – While it wasn’t a career year from a points perspective, the 25-year-old set a new career-high in goals with 15 while surpassing the 15 minute per game mark for the first time.  Consistency has long been an issue for the 2014 tenth-overall selection but Ritchie certainly took some steps in the right direction.  His qualifying offer is set at $2MM while he has arbitration eligibility for the first time as well.  He took enough strides this season that he should be tendered but he doesn’t have enough of a track record to seek much more than that.

F Ondrej Kase – Kase is being mentioned simply because it would be stunning to see him be tendered next month.  He was limited to just three games this season due to multiple upper-body injuries and had struggled over his previous two seasons as well.  That’s not worth a $2.6MM offer in this market; Boston would be wise to put use money elsewhere.

Other RFAs: F Trent Frederic, F Cameron Hughes, F Joona Koppanen, F Robert Lantosi, F Zachary Senyshyn, D Nick Wolff

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Taylor Hall – For the second straight year, the 29-year-old will be one of the more prominent players on the open market.  However, there’s no doubt that his value has taken a nosedive along the way after struggling mightily in Buffalo as his plans to have a strong season and then sign with more teams showing interest didn’t go as well as planned.  He facilitated a trade to Boston at the deadline and turned things around down the stretch and in the playoffs which will certainly help his cause in free agency.  That is, assuming he gets there.  Hall and the Bruins have openly expressed a mutual interest in getting another deal done and unless Hall’s asking price is too high, there should be a good chance of getting something in place although it will be a fair bit lower than the $8MM he made this season.

F David Krejci – Unlike Hall whose time in Boston has been limited, Krejci has been a fixture in their lineup for the past 14 years and has been their second-line center for a significant portion of that.  The 35-year-old has been a steady offensive presence and showed no signs of slowing down this season, notching 44 points in 51 games.  There has also been publicly stated mutual interest in getting a deal in place with Krejci saying he can’t see himself playing for a different NHL team than the Bruins.  He’s also facing a dip in pay as it’s quite unlikely he’ll match the $7.25MM AAV he has had for each of the past six seasons.

G Tuukka Rask – Wouldn’t you know it, here’s another veteran who has made it clear he wants to stay in Boston and has no intention of going anywhere else.  The difference is that Rask won’t be available for the first half of next season after undergoing hip surgery.  It’s obvious he’ll be facing a significant cut from his $7MM AAV from the past eight years but the question is whether or not they can afford to run with a short-term partner for youngster Jeremy Swayman or whether they’ll need a full-season piece which could then take Rask out of the equation.  If they do look for a full-season option, Jaroslav Halak, another Boston UFA, could be an option to return.

D Mike Reilly – Another trade deadline acquisition, Reilly played a big role after being acquired, averaging over 21 minutes per game down the stretch and in the playoffs.  Not bad for someone that had barely averaged 16 minutes a night over his first five NHL seasons.  The 27-year-old also had a career year offensively, collecting 27 assists in 55 games.  His stock has certainly gone up from being a role player who could have been in tough to match his $1.5MM price tag to one that quietly could generate a fair amount of interest on the open market.  And yes, Reilly has also publicly expressed an interest in returning.

Other UFAs: D Steven Kampfer, F Sean Kuraly, F Greg McKegg, D Kevan Miller, D Jarred Tinordi

Projected Cap Space

With so many veterans on expiring deals, Boston currently has a little over $31MM in cap room for next season and even after re-signing their restricted free agents, they’ll have plenty of space to work with.  However, they also will have several spots to fill.  Whether it’s re-signing the veterans that want to stick around or replacing them with similar players, GM Don Sweeney is in for a very busy summer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Arizona Coyotes

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Free agency is now just a little more than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Nearly the entire starting defense corps is about to hit the open market, meaning there are big changes coming in Arizona.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Conor Garland – Over the last few seasons, Garland has gone from fifth-round afterthought to arguably the most important forward on the entire Coyotes roster. The 25-year-old followed up a 22-goal 2019-20 season with another 39 points in 49 games this year, trailing only Phil Kessel for the team lead among forwards. His dynamic puck skills and edge work have resulted in outstanding possession numbers ever since he made it to the NHL and there’s good reason to believe he could put up even bigger offensive totals moving forward. Garland played most of the season with Nick Schmaltz but saw a rotating cast of other linemates throughout the year. The question now is whether the Coyotes will be able to lock down Garland with a long-term deal, buying out some unrestricted free agent years, or have to go to arbitration and settle with another short-term contract. He’s coming off a two-year deal that carried an average annual value of just $775K, so it would make sense for Garland’s camp to want a big raise.

G Adin Hill – There was a time a few seasons ago when Hill appeared to be in line to take over the crease in Arizona. The third-round pick made his NHL debut in 2017 at the age of 21, making 31 saves in a losing effort. Standing 6’6″ it was easy to see how he could become an elite starting goaltender at the next level, but now several years later he only has 49 appearances under his belt. Now arbitration-eligible and just two years from unrestricted free agency, the team will have to decide whether Hill is once again the plan for the next several years. Darcy Kuemper, the only other NHL goaltender under contract will be a UFA in a year’s time and has always had trouble staying healthy. Committing to Hill this summer may be the right choice, even if it does cost them a little bit more per season than he would get through the arbitration process.

Other RFAs: F Dryden Hunt, F John Hayden, F Lane Pederson, F Blake Speers, F Nate Sucese, F Frederik Gauthier, F Tyler Steenbergen, F Brayden Burke, D Dysin Mayo, D Cam Dineen

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

G Antti Raanta – Of course, the reason Kuemper is the only other goaltender under contract is that Raanta is about to hit the open market. The 32-year-old netminder still has a .919 career save percentage, but that number was brought down by his .905 this season. The fact that he hasn’t been able to stay healthy for consecutive seasons is a huge red flag, especially as he gets closer to his mid-thirties. Sure, there’s a reason to bring Raanta back on a reasonable deal, but with Hill ready to take his place as a tandem starter and other prospects in the wings, the veteran netminder may be looking for a different address next month.

F Michael Bunting – Some around the league believe that Bunting is ready to break out and could be one of this summer’s most savvy pickups. The 25-year-old scored 10 goals and 13 points in 21 games this season for Arizona, adding another 19 points in 16 AHL contests. That belief may have been a bit shaken when Bunting went completely scoreless in ten games at the World Championships, but there will surely be teams willing to take a chance. The Group VI unrestricted free agent actually prefers to stay in Arizona, but given that there is no deal in place yet, it suggests he is going to at least test the free agent market to see what is out there.

The Defense – The entire UFA section in this article could just be a list of defenders, given how many Coyotes are scheduled to hit the open market. Jason Demers, Alex Goligoski, Jordan Oesterle and Niklas Hjalmarsson are all pending UFAs and it isn’t clear if any of them will be back. The biggest question really is Goligoski, who paired with rising star Jakob Chychrun for most of this season, helping the young defenseman to a career year. Now 35, Goligoski still averaged 23 minutes a night as a steady two-way option and even produced 22 points in 56 games. Replacing him, especially if the Coyotes are also going to move Oliver Ekman-Larsson, will leave a gaping hole on the back end with no clear answer under contract. Demers, Oesterle and Hjalmarsson have all kind of merged into the same 17-minute-a-night defensive option, that doesn’t bring much offense and doesn’t have a lot of upside. Any of them could reenergize their careers with a fresh start somewhere else, or continue to fill out the depth chart on reasonable short-term deals in the desert.

Other UFAs: F Derick Brassard, F Marian Hossa, F Hudson Fasching, F Michael Chaput, D Aaron Ness, D Jordan Gross

Projected Cap Space

Even though they have been technically up against the cap in the past, that was mostly due to the Coyotes taking on contracts like Hossa’s in order to gather assets. The team is not normally known as a big spender and has more than $31MM to work with this offseason. Of course, they’ll need to fill half a roster with that money, not the easiest of tasks. Getting Ekman-Larsson’s contract off the books would be huge for the team, given the value-cost equation that is seemingly getting worse by the year. GM Bill Armstrong has a very busy summer ahead of him but plenty of roster spots to work with.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly. 

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