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Free Agent Focus 2020

Free Agent Focus: St. Louis Blues

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With free agency now less than a month away, many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign.  While St. Louis doesn’t have much to do up front, there is certainly some work that needs to be done on their back end.

Key Restricted Free Agents

D Vince Dunn – The 23-year-old was a popular pick to take another step forward offensively this season after putting up 35 points in 78 games in his sophomore year.  That didn’t happen.  Instead, while Dunn was their only blueliner to play in all 71 of their regular season games, his production dipped to just nine goals and 14 assists.  Those numbers are still pretty good for a defenseman but it’s also telling that his playing time was also cut to just 16:16 per night which was fifth on the team.

On the surface, a short-term deal would seem like the likely way to go.  They don’t have a lot of cap room and there is a more prominent defenseman that they want to keep around.  However, if that doesn’t happen, Dunn should be in line for a bigger role on the power play and with that, a boost in points would almost certainly follow which would inevitably drive up the price tag down the road when he’ll have arbitration eligibility.  With that in mind, the time may be right to pursue a long-term deal although that would have to wait until free agency starts and more is known about the fate of their captain.

D Derrick Pouliot – While he spent most of this season in the minors, the 26-year-old had been a full-time NHL blueliner for the two previous years in Vancouver.  Pouliot was one of the higher-scoring defensemen in the AHL this year with 39 points in just 58 games and the limited NHL action this season negates his arbitration eligibility.  After being non-tendered in two straight years, it’s certainly possible that Pouliot is brought back as insurance.

Other RFAs: D Jake Dotchin, F Austin Poganski, D Mitch Reinke, F Nolan Stevens, D Jake Walman

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

D Alex Pietrangelo – It’s very rare that a defenseman of his caliber hits the open market but as things stand, it appears that where Pietrangelo is headed after word leaked that he had been advised to test free agency by the team when contract talks weren’t producing any progress.  The 30-year-old is a number one defenseman and has played in all situations for St. Louis for the last decade.  It’s not a matter of the Blues not wanting him back either but rather a reality of their cap situation; they just can’t afford to pay him top dollar at this time.

While the flattened salary cap will certainly have a substantial impact on the free agent marketplace, that shouldn’t extend to Pietrangelo.  Top players are still going to get paid top dollar and he’s certainly a top player.  He has had at least 48 points in each of the last four seasons while logging at least 24 minutes a night.  There should be many teams salivating at the chance to have that on their back end, even if they can’t afford it on their salary cap right away.  Pietrangelo should have a chance at commanding top-five money for players at his position which would put him at an AAV of $8.25MM at a minimum (it should check in a bit higher than that).  The only way he could get an eighth year on his deal is if he signs before the market opens up, either by re-signing or doing a sign-and-trade.  Accordingly, there should be more news on his fate before too long.

F Troy Brouwer – The Blues signed him in late November to provide them with some veteran depth but while he was up with them for most of the time after that, he didn’t get much playing time as he played in just 13 regular season games.  However, he got into four postseason contests and scored on his only shot.  At this point, his upside is as a 13th or 14th forward that can be trusted to play eight minutes a night so his market should be limited until closer to training camp where he may have to settle for a PTO.

Other UFAs: D Andreas Borgman, F Nick Lappin, D/F Joey LaLeggia, F Jordan Nolan, F Mike Vecchione

Projected Cap Space

While they already have 22 players under contract, St. Louis also has over $76MM in commitments for next season, per CapFriendly.  With the Upper Limit of the salary cap remaining at $81.5MM, that’s enough to re-sign Dunn but nowhere near enough to keep (or replace) Pietrangelo.  Accordingly, GM Doug Armstrong will be among the many teams that will be looking to free up some cap room in the coming weeks.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Focus: Colorado Avalanche

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With free agency now just a few weeks away, many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign.  While their top performers may still be locked up, Colorado has a ton of work to do on their depth pieces.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Valeri Nichushkin – After a season that saw him score exactly zero goals in 57 games following several years in the KHL, it looked like Nichushkin’s NHL career might be over after the 2018-19 campaign ended. He was bought out by the Dallas Stars in June and could have easily decided to go back to Russia and continue his career there. Not so fast, said the Avalanche, who signed Nichushkin to a one-year, $850K deal that gave him another chance in the NHL. After scoring 13 goals and 27 points in 65 games while being one of the best defensive wingers in the entire league—he finished eighth in Selke Trophy voting—the 25-year-old Russian has probably earned himself a multi-year extension with Colorado.

F Andre Burakovsky – Quick, after Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar, who was the leading scorer on the Avalanche this season? Gabriel Landeskog? Mikko Rantanen? Nazem Kadri? No, it was Burakovsky, whose 45 points were a career-high despite the shortened season. In just 58 games he scored 20 goals for the first time in his career, finally getting the opportunity to play big minutes and rewarding the Avalanche by fulfilling the huge potential he had shown as a young player. Importantly, Burakovsky has already played six full seasons in the NHL despite being just 25, meaning he could become an unrestricted free agent next offseason. Waiting for a one-year arbitration award would get him there, meaning the Avalanche will have to try and work out a multi-year deal in the coming weeks if they want to lock him up.

D Nikita Zadorov – For all the frustration at the fact that Zadorov still hasn’t grown into that minute-munching two-way star that fans have been dreaming off since he came into the league as a teenager, he has already logged nearly 400 games in his NHL career and only turned 25 a few months ago. He’ll never be the leader of the Colorado blueline, but he still represents a valuable asset that they’ll have to make a decision on this summer. Like Burakovsky, Zadorov already has six NHL seasons under his belt and could use an arbitration award to get to unrestricted free agency at 26 next offseason. Unlike Burakovsky, the Avalanche might be okay with that outcome given the pipeline of defensemen they’ve created over the last few years.

Other RFAs: F Tyson Jost, F Vladislav Kamenev, D Ryan Graves, F A.J. Greer, F Sheldon Dries, G Hunter Miska

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Colin Wilson – When the 2018-19 season came to an end, the Avalanche decided that Wilson was worthy of a $2.6MM contract. They waited until July 1 to do it, but they obviously felt it was acceptable after his 12-goal, 27-point campaign. He was an option on the powerplay and a depth piece for a team that looked like they were gearing up for a real Stanley Cup run. Unfortunately, that $2.6MM resulted in just four points and nine games. Wilson suffered a (somewhat mysterious) injury in October and never returned, opening the door for other players to take his opportunities. If he’s healthy, perhaps the Avalanche bring him back. But with so much firepower ahead of him on the depth chart, it might be wise for Wilson to go somewhere else to build his value back up.

F Vladislav Namestnikov – If a trade deadline pickup ends up playing just nine regular season games for your team, it usually means the transaction was a mistake. Not so with Namestnikov, who scored four goals for the Avalanche before the shutdown and then added another four in their 12-game postseason. You can bet the team is wondering what kind of a resurgence they could milk out of the 27-year-old Russian forward, given he has shown an ability to score in bunches, but there simply might not be enough to go around. If the team is set on bringing back all of their restricted free agents, Namestnikov may be better served looking for a free agent landing spot.

F Matt Nieto – What can you say about Nieto? A few years ago he was lining up beside some of the very best players on the Colorado roster, but even after being dropped out of that group has still performed relatively well. 21 points in 70 games are nothing to sneeze at, especially when it comes in just over 11 minutes of even-strength ice time a night. Nieto was Colorado’s top penalty-killing forward this season and will be missed if the team is forced to let him reach free agency. There’s not always enough money to go around, especially if Nieto’s versatility and consistency end up drawing a crowd when the market opens.

Other UFAs: D Kevin Connauton, G Michael Hutchinson, F Jayson Megna, D Mark Alt, G Antoine Bibeau

Projected Cap Space

The $22.4MM in cap space Colorado has this offseason is a testament to the way GM Joe Sakic has built his squad, but it doesn’t mean they can take endless shots at high-priced free agents. The team has to consider their own core first, with Makar and Landeskog both heading into their final season under contract. MacKinnon will be up two years after that, with Kadri due for a new deal in the middle. No, they’re not in cap trouble, but they could be if they lean in and spend all of their room this offseason trying to chase a Stanley Cup right away.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Free Agent Focus: Chicago Blackhawks

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With free agency now less than a month away, many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign.  Chicago has several notable young players in need of new deals as well as a long-term veteran who is hoping to stick around a little longer.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Dominik Kubalik – No one really knew what to expect from the 25-year-old entering his first season but even the most optimistic of guesses likely wouldn’t have had Kubalik getting 30 goals or finishing third in Calder Trophy voting.  But that’s exactly what happened even with six forwards averaging more ice time per game than him in the regular season.  He put up front line goal totals with the playing time of a fringe second liner.  Now, both sides have to find a suitable compromise at a time where there aren’t really any good comparable players out there as let’s face it, rookies that come over at his age typically don’t put up 30 goals.  That makes a short-term deal a more palatable scenario and with there being three years until he’s eligible for free agency, it’s the likeliest outcome as well.

F Dylan Strome – Strome’s second season in Chicago wasn’t quite as productive as his first as his output dipped from 51 points in 58 games to 38 in 58.  However, that’s still a 54-point pace over a full schedule which is production equivalent to a second liner which is pretty good considering he was seemingly on the outs in Arizona just two years ago.  Even so, it feels like there is still some uncertainty surrounding his upside.  Is the number three pick in 2015 a core player that should be built around or is he expendable in the right situation?  His production so far with Chicago suggests the former but when the beginning of Strome’s career gets factored in, the decision isn’t so easy.  Suffice it to say, a long-term deal probably isn’t in the cards, especially when he doesn’t have arbitration eligibility.

F Drake Caggiula – With nine goals and six assists in 40 games, Caggiula’s numbers don’t stand out but when you factor in that he averaged less than 12 minutes a night, they look a bit more impressive.  He’s an effective energy winger when healthy but staying in the lineup has been a challenge.  That, coupled with his $1.5MM qualifying offer, presents a tough call for GM Stan Bowman.  There’s no denying that Caggiula is a useful player on their roster but with limited cap room and other notable players ahead of him needing new deals, this could be a case where they non-tender him to look for a cheaper replacement (or to try to get him to take a bit of a pay cut).

Other RFAs: F Alexandre Fortin, D Slater Koekkoek, D Ian McCoshen, G Malcolm Subban, D Joni Tuulola

Key Unrestricted Free Agent

G Corey Crawford – Having moved out Robin Lehner and Erik Gustafsson at the trade deadline, Crawford is the one and only regular NHL player that’s set to hit the open market next month.  His case is a particularly interesting one.  For starters, the Blackhawks are the only organization he has been a part of since they drafted him in the second round back in 2003 and has played in 13 different NHL seasons for them.  Along the way, he became a good starter which helped him pick up a couple of Stanley Cup titles.

But in recent years, he hasn’t been able to stay in the lineup as frequently to the point where Bowman brought in Lehner in free agency just to have another reliable option.  Crawford’s year-to-year performance has varied considerably and he’s coming off of a season where his numbers were decent (2.77 GAA, .917 SV%) but not near the top of the leaderboard either.  Between that and his age (35), it’s hard to see him as the long-term solution.  A multi-year deal may even be tough to do and it seems likely that his next contract will come a bit cheaper than the $6MM AAV that he has played under for the past six years.

Crawford has said that he wants to stay in Chicago but that he also wants to be a starter which is a role he hasn’t really exclusively held for a while.  Can they find their way to a deal to keep him around or will he leave after 17 years with the organization?

Other UFAs: F Joseph Cramarossa, D T.J. Brennan, F Anton Wedin

Projected Cap Space

At the moment, Chicago has a little over $73.5MM in commitments to 17 players, per CapFriendly.  Getting all of their impact players re-signed for the $8MM difference isn’t going to happen so some trimming needs to be done, be it through a buyout, trade, or both.  While Brent Seabrook and Andrew Shaw missed significant portions of the season and didn’t suit up in the bubble, both expect to be ready to start 2020-21 which takes relying on LTIR off the table for now.  Things could change in-season but for the time being, Bowman needs to free up some cap room to keep the core of his team intact.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Focus: Carolina Hurricanes

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With free agency now less than a month away, many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign.  The Carolina Hurricanes already traded away the rights to one pending free agent but still have some tough decisions to make.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Warren Foegele – The journey to the NHL wasn’t smooth for the 24-year-old Foegele, who actually left the University of New Hampshire in 2015 to return to the OHL and continue his development back at the junior level. A few years later and it’s clear that that was the right decision for him after two full seasons as a member of the Hurricanes. After really making a name for himself in the 2019 playoffs where he nearly registered as many points as his whole regular season, Foegele came back in 2019-20 as an integral part of the Carolina machine.

In 68 games he scored 13 times and put up 30 points despite averaging just over 12 minutes at even-strength and not touching the ice on the powerplay. That level of production won’t land him a huge raise, but it should afford him a little more ice time and a bigger role moving forward. The question will be whether or not they can work out a multi-year contract or if either of the two sides would rather test arbitration.

D Haydn Fleury – It’s easy to forget that Fleury was the seventh-overall pick in 2014, because to this point in his career he frankly hasn’t lived up to that draft billing. Selected ahead of first-round talents like William Nylander, Nikolaj Ehlers, Dylan Larkin, and of course David Pastrnak (whose selection at 25 still haunts most of the league), Fleury has still played just 132 games in the NHL. That said, his talents did start to show themselves down the stretch for the Hurricanes, with the team even giving him a chance to play more than 20 minutes in four of his last five games before the season was canceled.

In the postseason, Fleury’s role with the team was still large enough to think that they will move forward with him as a full-time member of the defense. With Joel Edmundson traded and two other defensemen set to hit unrestricted free agency, there will be minutes to go around. Like Foegele, Fleury is arbitration-eligible but still might not be able to argue for much of a raise given he played just 45 NHL games this season.

Other RFAs: F Steven Lorentz, F Clark Bishop, F Spencer Smallman, F Jacob Pritchard, D Oliwer Kaski, D Roland McKeown, D Gustav Forsling, G Callum Booth

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Justin Williams – Does he come back for a 20th NHL season? It’s not clear at all what Williams’ plans are, but last time it took him until January to officially return to the league and it just so happens that that is when the next season is expected to start. Maybe the next few months will be enough time off for the veteran forward to get the itch again and if Carolina is willing, it seems like the only destination. Williams signed for just $700K (plus performance bonuses) this season and would likely do the same if he returns.

D Sami Vatanen – The bigger question is trade deadline acquisition Vatanen, who actually may have never suited up for Carolina had the playoffs not been delayed. The 29-year-old was injured when the Hurricanes acquired him at the deadline and tweaked it again meaning he never did actually play a regular season game for the team. That didn’t stop head coach Rod Brind’Amour from using Vatanen a lot in the playoffs, but even that postseason performance seems unlikely to land him a new contract with the Hurricanes this offseason.

Carolina already has five defensemen locked up for at least $4MM per season, a number that Vatanen will likely be trying to eclipse on a multi-year deal in free agency. He’s coming off a four-year contract that carried a $4.875MM AAV, and though the flat cap situation may squeeze middle-tier free agents like Vatanen, it’s hard to see how the Hurricanes could really justify bringing him back without a trade of someone else.

Other UFAs: D Trevor van Riemsdyk, F Max McCormick, F Brian Gibbons, G Anton Forsberg

Projected Cap Space

Hard to justify because the Hurricanes only have about $7.8MM in cap space going into the offseason and have more pressing needs than their third pairing. James Reimer and Petr Mrazek are both heading into their final seasons under contract and the Hurricanes have been included in plenty of goaltending speculation. There is also a new deal just around the corner with budding superstar Andrei Svechnikov, who will be a restricted free agent for the first time in 2021.

Promoting youngsters like Jake Bean can provide some more flexibility because of their inexpensive entry-level contracts, but the Hurricanes may end up more involved in the trade market than free agency given their current situation.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Free Agent Focus: Calgary Flames

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With free agency now less than a month away, many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign.  While the Calgary Flames have one or two key restricted free agents to deal with, they may have quite a few questions that will need answering among their unrestricted free-agent defensemen.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Andrew Mangiapane – Throughout his career, Mangiapane has done everything right and only continues to get better. A former sixth-round pick in 2015, he worked his way into permanent role in 2018-19 and solidified himself as a top-six forward this year and it showed, posting career highs in his second full season, scoring 17 goals and 32 points. He added another three goals in 10 playoff games this year. The 24-year-old is likely to get a raise after making $800K on his now-expiring entry-level deal. He has proven his value as a key future forward on this team.

F Mark Jankowski – There was a lot of hope for Jankowski, the team’s first-round pick from 2012, but his third season in the NHL was a bit disappointing. In fact, after his rookie campaign in 2017-18 in which the 26-year-old tallied 17 goals, he has seen a continual decline, posting 15 goals in 2018-19 and followed that up with just five goals this year and has seen his playing time continue to drop as he played just 11:06 of ATOI. And at 6-foot-4 and a bottom-line player, he doesn’t play much of a physical game with just 80 recorded hits over three full seasons. However, the team has to decide whether he is worth the $1.75MM qualifying offer to retain his rights.

Other RFAs: F Justin Kirkland, D Oliver Kylington, D Andrew Nielsen, G Tyler Parsons.

10.2(c) Players: F Glenn Gawdin, G Nick Schneider (ineligible for arbitration or an offer sheet)

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

D Travis Hamonic – The Flames gave up quite a bit to bring in the defensive-minded Hamonic back in 2017. While not particularly much of an offensive player, the 30-year-old blueliner is quite a defensive player and was second on the team in ATOI this season at 21:11. Of course, the team was without his services in the playoffs as he opted out due to COVID-19 and family concerns. His daughter has had a significant battle with a life-threatening respiratory virus in the past while Hamonic has a new baby boy as well. However, the blueliner also was dealing with an upper-body injury for a large chunk of the regular season as well. Will the team bring him back? He was quite an affordable commodity at $3.86MM for the last few years, but undoubtedly will be looking for a raise and how many years is Calgary willing to offer to someone who is already 30 years old? With a team as cash-strapped as Calgary, Hamonic may be too pricey to keep.

D Erik Gustafsson – With five unrestricted free-agent defensemen, the team is likely to have to make some tough decisions in the near future. The Flames picked up Gustafsson for just a third-round pick at the trade deadline, which looked like a steal when Hamonic opted out of the playoffs. The team was expecting to lean on the once-high scoring defenseman. Instead, Gustafsson got just third-pairing minutes and wasn’t a big contributor down the stretch, suggesting the team may move on from him. While the 28-year-old’s price tag likely has dropped since posting a 17-goal, 60-point season back in 2018-19 and then following that up with a six-goal, 29-point season this year, a reunion would seem less likely considering the team has limited means as it is.

D T.J. Brodie – A constant trade-rumor candidate last summer, Brodie has found a way to remain with the team and produce quality minutes and may be the best option for Calgary if they were able to re-sign just one starter in the offseason. While his minutes have declined significantly since 2014-15, he still can put of solid defensive numbers and potentially provide solid play for less than the cost of either Hamonic or Gustafsson. He is capable of playing either side of the ice and plays a game that might suggest he could play deeper into his career than other defensemen.

G Cam Talbot – The Calgary Flames added Talbot to their roster as a veteran backup for young David Rittich and instead, Talbot walked away with the starting job, playing in all 10 of the team’s playoff games with Rittich getting just 16:35 of ice time in the final game before they were eliminated by Dallas (he gave up three goals on six shots). Talbot, who posted solid numbers this year, with a 2.63 GAA and a .919 save percentage in 26 regular season games, put up even better numbers in those 10 playoff games, including a 2.42 GAA and a .924 save percentage. The 33-year-old UFA made it clear he is looking for a starting job, but is Calgary willing to give up on Rittich just yet? And are they willing to pay up to keep Talbot, who could have quite a few suitors after his impressive season?

Other UFAs: F Austin Czarnik, D Derek Forbort, F Byron Froese, G Jon Gillies, F Ryan Lomberg, F Alan Quine, F Tobias Rieder, F Zac Rinaldo, F Buddy Robinson, D Michael Stone, D Rinat Valiev.

Projected Cap Space

The Flames only have about $16MM in available cap space and plenty of players they need to sign, including at least one or two defensemen and a starting/tandem goaltender. That doesn’t leave much money left for the team to spend on potential free agents unless the Flames find a way to move out some salary or some key players. Of course, with several rumors spreading about the availability of Johnny Gaudreau, it could be an interesting offseason for the Calgary Flames.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Focus: Buffalo Sabres

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With free agency now less than a month away, many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign.  New Buffalo GM Kevyn Adams will certainly have his work cut out for him as more than half of their players are in need of new contracts in the coming weeks.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Sam Reinhart – Two years ago, the Sabres elected for a bridge contract to see if Reinhart had another gear in him.  While he hasn’t quite reached a point per game level, he has emerged as a capable and consistent top liner.  He has reached at least 50 points in three straight seasons and had an outside shot at 60 had it not been for the pandemic which will help his arbitration case as will his increase in usage to over 20 minutes a night.  He’s two years away from unrestricted free agency so this is the time where a long-term pact should be the focus for both sides.  There aren’t a lot of core forwards in Buffalo right now beyond Jack Eichel and Jeff Skinner but Reinhart is certainly one of them.

F Victor Olofsson – It was a breakout season for the 25-year-old who went from being predominantly a minor leaguer to one of the top rookie scorers in the league with 22 goals and 20 assists in just 54 games.  His lack of NHL track record makes it difficult to find possible comparables which could make his arbitration case a little more interesting.  Normally, a bridge deal for a player in this situation coming off his entry-level deal would make sense but because he’s an older rookie, a two-year pact would walk him right to unrestricted free agency.  There’s no doubt that Olofsson will get a substantial raise on his salary from this season which was less than $800K but Adams is going to have to decide if he’s ready to commit to a long-term deal or if a one-year contract is the better way to go.

G Linus Ullmark – Ullmark has been Buffalo’s possible goalie of the future for a while but it has yet to materialize into a goalie of the present situation.  Even with Carter Hutton struggling mightily, head coach Ralph Krueger saw fit to platoon the two so Ullmark only played in 34 games and while he has played in five separate NHL seasons, he still doesn’t have 100 games under his belt.  At 27, he’s a year away from UFA eligibility so another one-year contract that kicks the can down the road isn’t an option anymore.  They may not be ready to commit a long-term deal but a two or three-year pact that buys a bit of team control and has a price tag around the $3MM mark might be palatable for both sides; it’d more than double his salary from this season without pricing themselves out of bidding for a starter down the road.

D Brandon Montour – It wasn’t that long ago that Montour appeared to be a part of their long-term plans to the point where Buffalo gave up a first-rounder for him.  However, he struggled a bit under Krueger and his ice time fell as a result.  Add that to the flattened salary cap and there are questions about whether or not they should be tendering him his $3.525MM qualifying offer.  He’s also a year away from UFA eligibility but it’s at least possible that he hits the open market earlier than originally planned.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see him in trade discussions in the coming weeks as a result.

Other RFAs: F Remi Elie, D Brandon Hickey, G Jonas Johansson, F Dominik Kahun, F Curtis Lazar, F Andrew Oglevie, D Matthew Spencer, F Tage Thompson

10.2(c) Players: F Casey Mittelstadt (ineligible for arbitration or an offer sheet)

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Wayne Simmonds – The decision to take a one-year deal came with mixed results for Simmonds.  While he landed more than he would have on a multi-year contract, he didn’t rebound like he or New Jersey had hoped for and didn’t improve upon being moved to Buffalo.  While he’s only 32, he has shown signs of slowing down considerably the last couple of years and should now be looked as more of a depth player than the top-six option he has been for most of his career.  He should still have no difficulty landing a contract this offseason but it will be much cheaper than the $5MM he made this season.

F Jimmy Vesey – Last summer’s trade to the Sabres didn’t kick-start his offense.  Instead, his production took a nosedive as his nine goals and 20 points were both career lows; even had the pandemic not hit, that still likely would have been the case.  So instead of entering the market as a possible second liner, he’s going to have to seek out an opportunity where he can play on an offensive-minded third line and hope to play his way up the lineup.  At 27, there should be a fair bit of interest but the flattened cap may limit his chances of beating his $2.35MM salary from this season.

F Zemgus Girgensons/F Johan Larsson – I’ve lumped these two together as they’ve followed somewhat similar trajectories thus far aside from Girgensons’ voted in All-Star Game appearance.  They even are coming off of near-identical contracts, $1.6MM for Girgensons and $1.55MM for Larsson.  Both have spent seven years in Buffalo and have done well at times defensively but their offensive games haven’t progressed much along the way.  There is a spot on the fourth line either with Buffalo or elsewhere but it may be hard to justify Adams bringing both of them back at a similar price tag but one of them re-signing could certainly happen.

Other UFAs: F Michael Frolik, D John Gilmour, G Andrew Hammond, D Matt Hunwick, F Taylor Leier, D Casey Nelson, F Vladimir Sobotka, F Scott Wilson

Projected Cap Space

With so many players needing new deals, there isn’t much on the books right now; they have about $47MM tied up in 10 players, per CapFriendly.  That gives them plenty of flexibility to work with if ownership is willing to spend to the $81.5MM Upper Limit.  After they re-sign their restricted free agents, they’ll have enough left to be players in free agency in the coming weeks.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Focus: Tampa Bay Lightning

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With free agency now less than a month away, many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign.  Tampa Bay’s players are certainly focused on beginning the Stanley Cup Final on Saturday but management is undoubtedly aware of some of the core players in need of new deals soon after.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Anthony Cirelli – Last season was his first in the NHL and while he played well, he still was a little bit under the radar.  That isn’t the case now.  Despite the pandemic, he set a new career best with 44 points in 69 games while establishing himself as one of the top two-way centers in the league.  Writers around the NHL certainly noticed as he finished fourth in Selke Trophy voting.  So far in the playoffs, his production has tapered off a bit but he has logged more than 20 minutes a night while playing in a checking role.  Cirelli isn’t arbitration-eligible but there will be teams that view him as a second liner and if that’s the case, he could be a candidate for an offer sheet (especially with the Lightning’s cap situation).

D Mikhail Sergachev – The 22-year-old hasn’t had that big leap offensively since he picked up 40 points in his rookie season; he hasn’t reached that mark since.  However, he has gone from being a player who had to be sheltered on the third pairing into a capable top-four defender that has shown considerable improvement in his own end.  That will undoubtedly catch the eye of any GM that wants to try an offer sheet and isn’t impressed with the current trade or UFA options.  If one of those doesn’t materialize (which is the likelier scenario), a short-term contract will probably be the outcome since they don’t have much in the way of cap space to work with this offseason.

D Erik Cernak – He won’t blow anyone away offensively by any stretch but Cernak has settled into a strong defensive role and has been an anchor on what has been one of the better penalty kills among teams that have gone relatively deep into the playoffs.  Like Cirelli and Sergachev, he isn’t eligible for salary arbitration which will hurt his earnings upside a bit so a bridge contract is expected.  Even so, he should at least triple his $735K qualifying offer.

Other RFAs: F Ross Colton, F Mathieu Joseph, D Dominik Masin, F Gemel Smith, D Devante Stephens, F Mitchell Stephens, D Ben Thomas, F Carter Verhaeghe, F Alexander Volkov, F Dennis Yan

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

D Kevin Shattenkirk – While things didn’t work out well for him in New York, Shattenkirk has fared much better with the Lightning.  Instead of being counted on to be an offensive catalyst as he was with the Rangers, he’s in more of a supporting cast role and has made the most of it, picking up 34 points in 70 regular season games and nine more in 19 postseason contests so far.  He has done well to restore some value and while he won’t come anywhere close to the $6.65MM AAV of his contract that was eventually bought out, he should check in higher than $1.75MM he played for this year.  A multi-year pact is certainly a possibility as well.

F Patrick Maroon – Gone are the days where there were teams hoping that he could be part of a top-six forward group but Maroon has shown that he can still contribute in a more limited role.  Anyone looking for grit and leadership in their bottom six should show interest in Maroon, especially if he’s willing to take a deal close to the $900K he made this season.  With many teams being limited in what they can spend this offseason, he should have a longer list of suitors this time around.

D Zach Bogosian – Expectations were quite low after his deal with the Sabres was terminated but he has fit in nicely with the Lightning.  Between the regular season and playoffs, he has averaged around 18 minutes per game and has held his own.  It was risky walking away from more guaranteed money had he reported to Buffalo’s AHL affiliate but had he done that, there’s a good chance he wouldn’t have had much interest in free agency.  He should have several suitors now so this decision is one that has certainly worked out for him.

Other UFAs: G Mike Condon, D Cameron Gaunce, G Spencer Martin, D Jan Rutta, D Luke Schenn, D Patrick Sieloff, G Scott Wedgewood

Projected Cap Space

Tampa Bay has nearly $69MM in cap commitments for next season already, per CapFriendly.  That spending only gets them a goalie, two defensemen, and seven forwards.  With an $81.5MM cap, that leaves them less than $13MM to fill out half of their roster while having two of the top young restricted free agents needing new deals.  There’s no sugar coating it – they need to clear out a notable contract or two.  However, of the 10 players signed, only two don’t have trade protection and those two – Brayden Point and Andrei Vasilevskiy – aren’t going anywhere.  GM Julien BriseBois will have his work cut out for him when their series against Dallas comes to an end.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Focus: Toronto Maple Leafs

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With free agency now less than a month away, many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign.  Toronto has a few veterans that are likely to move on in free agency while there are a few restricted free agents of note as well.

Key Restricted Free Agents

D Travis Dermott – While the 23-year-old hasn’t quite taken off offensively as he or the Maple Leafs had hoped, he has nevertheless secured a regular spot on their back end as a capable puck-mover.  He’s squarely third on the depth chart among left-shot options behind Morgan Rielly and Jake Muzzin and that isn’t going to change anytime soon.  That, paired up with his quiet offensive numbers and no arbitration rights, has Dermott on track for a short-term bridge contract.

F Ilya Mikheyev – One of the more sought-after players in international free agency in the 2019 offseason, Mikheyev made a strong first impression with Toronto before having his wrist sliced open by the skate blade of Jesper Bratt put a premature end to his rookie campaign.  However, he was able to return for the Qualifying Round against Columbus so he should be good to go moving forward.  He turns 26 next month and is already arbitration-eligible which makes him one of the more interesting cases.  23 points in 39 games is impressive but those are his only NHL numbers which makes finding eligible comparable players quite difficult.  This feels like a situation where Toronto would like to give him a multi-year deal and buy out some UFA eligibility but with their salary cap situation, that will be difficult.  Nevertheless, expect Mikheyev to sign for a fair bit more than his $874K qualifying offer.

F Evan Rodrigues – His stock fell quite a bit this season.  After back-to-back campaigns of 25 points or more, it looked like he had become a regular with Buffalo.  However, he fell out of favor with head coach Ralph Krueger and was dealt to Pittsburgh where playing time was harder to come by; he didn’t even suit up in their early exit to Montreal.  Rodrigues was curiously part of the Kasperi Kapanen trade recently.  While it’s unlikely that Toronto tenders a $2MM qualifier, they may use this time to try to see if he’s willing to take a cheaper deal.

Other RFAs: F Jeremy Bracco, F Frederik Gauthier, F Denis Malgin, F Max Veronneau

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

D Tyson Barrie – Sometimes, a change of scenery can bring out the best in a player and other times, it doesn’t work out.  Barrie’s case fits in the latter category.  A year removed from a career-best 59 points with Colorado, his inclusion in the Nazem Kadri trade looked to present a big opportunity for a new benchmark in points and a pricey contract on the open market.  Instead, he struggled early and never quite found his footing.  Overall, his 39 points (5-34-39) is still well above average for a defenseman but instead of commanding $7MM or more in free agency, he’ll likely have to accept something closer to the $5.5MM he made on his most recent deal.  On the surface, Barrie feels like a candidate for a one-year pillow deal to try to restore some value and try his hand for a big contract a year from now.

D Cody Ceci – Included as salary ballast in last summer’s Nikita Zaitsev deal with Ottawa, Ceci managed to log more than 20 minutes a night in ice time for the fourth straight season.  He’s a right-shot defender and is only 26; he’s already eligible for unrestricted status due to his seven years of NHL service time.  Typically, players with this profile should have considerable demand but Ceci is one of the more polarizing blueliners in the league.  He has more offensive upside than the eight points he put up this season but he’s prone to some untimely mistakes as well.  His defenders will point to some advanced stats that paint him in a more favorable light, making a case of the eye test versus the numbers.  That might limit his suitors a little bit but he should have no issues finding another team for next season but he’ll have to take a cut in pay from the $4.5MM he made this year.

F Kyle Clifford – The veteran was brought in as part of the Jack Campbell trade to give Toronto some grit for the playoffs and he did fine in that role.  There’s mutual interest in a new contract but it’s worth noting that Los Angeles paid down half of his $1.6MM price tag in the move.  If Clifford wants a similar contract – and he should be able to get that even in a depressed market – he will almost certainly price himself out of the range that the Maple Leafs can afford to pay.

Other UFAs: F David Clarkson, F Tyler Gaudet, D Kevin Gravel, G Kasimir Kaskisuo, F Matt Lorito, F Nathan Horton, F Miikka Salomaki, F Jason Spezza, F Garrett Wilson

Projected Cap Space

Even after clearing Kapanen’s deal off the books, Toronto has about $77.25MM tied up in 20 players for next season, per CapFriendly; that amount assumes that KHL signings Alexander Barabanov and Mikko Lehtonen ultimately make the team.  With the Upper Limit remaining at $81.5MM, that leaves them enough to fill out their roster with some depth players but if they want to add another impact player, they’ll have to either make another move to free up some space or acquire someone with the other team paying down part of the contract.  As a result, their current roster may not look all that much different when the puck drops on the 2020-21 season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Focus: Vancouver Canucks

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With free agency now less than a month away, many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign.  Vancouver has several big decisions to make concerning their team, especially in goal.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Jake Virtanen – Virtanen is an interesting case in which the former first-round pick has made improvements every year and this year was no different. After a 15-goal, 25-point season in 2018-19, Virtanen improved to 18 goals and 36 points this season. However, while that’s a definite improvement, his playoff performance this year left a lot to be desired. He managed just two goals and three points in 16 games and saw his playing time fluctuate while spending some time on the fourth line. His time with the Canucks could be up as the 24-year-old could end up being trade bait as he has slowly worn out his welcome with Travis Green and the coaching staff. Regardless, the forward still has the potential to become a top-six forward.

F Tyler Motte – A fan favorite in Vancouver had an up-and-down year, missing a chunk of the regular season with a shoulder injury, but is a key player for the team’s fourth line. The 25-year-old only posted four goals in 34 regular season games, but then was more impressive in the playoffs with four goals in just 17 games. However, he does bring the team some much needed physicality with 318 hits over his last 108 regular season games. At just $975K, he shouldn’t require the Canucks to break the bank to sign him.

D Troy Stecher – The blueliner will be an interesting test for GM Jim Benning, who has quite a few unrestricted free agents to make decisions on and limited cap room for that. One suggestion that has been made by many is sending the 26-year-old off in a trade. He made $2.33MM the past two years and that is money that might be better spent elsewhere to retain some of their other players. Stecher also only averaged 15:21 of ATOI, not exactly the type of playing time you’d hope for for someone making that much money. With younger defensemen ready to step in such as Olli Juolevi and Jack Rathbone, the team may look to trade him during the offseason.

Other RFAs: F Justin Bailey, F Reid Boucher, D Guillaume Brisebois, D Jalen Chatfield, F Adam Gaudette, F Nikolay Goldobin, G Jake Kielly, F Zack MacEwen, F Francis Perron, F David Pope.

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

G Jacob Markstrom – What once was considered a slam dunk of a re-signing has now become less of a certainty after a three-game performance from young backup Thatcher Demko. Granted, Benning did admit that bringing Markstrom back was a priority, regardless of what Demko did in the playoffs, but with so little cap space to work with, there have to be some doubts whether signing the all-star goaltender to a long-term deal is a good idea if Demko is ready to be a No. 1 goalie. The 30-year-old Markstrom, however, has been consistent in net, boasting a .912 save percentage during the 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons and followed that up with a .918 save percentage this year, looking almost as impressive in the playoffs before going down with an injury. It could also be more costly for Vancouver to re-sign him with several other teams reportedly interested in bringing him aboard. While his $3.67MM AAV was a nice one for their cap, he is likely ready to move into the $5-6MM range, a costly one when someone behind him might be ready to move into his place for quite a bit less.

F Tyler Toffoli – After an inconsistent career in Los Angeles, the Canucks snagged the 28-year-old forward at the trade deadline and he was exactly what the team needed, posting six goals and 10 points in 10 regular season teams with Vancouver. He provided four points in seven games too and Vancouver would like to add Toffoli as a long-term piece. That could prove to be expensive and the Canucks will likely have to move some of their other pieces to make that happen. There is also rumors that Toffoli would like to return to Southern California, which will make his status interesting to watch during the offseason. At $4.6MM for the past three years, could he make more than that now?

F Chris Tanev – The 30-year-old blueliner has spent his entire career in Vancouver and been a solid defensive player. The team would like to bring back the veteran, but again, much depends on what other moves the team makes. If the team does re-sign both Markstrom and Toffoli, it’s possible that Vancouver just won’t have the money to sign him. At $4.45MM, that’s a high price to pay for a player that is likely to begin to see his game decline over the next few years.

Other UFAs: G Richard Bachman, G Louis Domingue, D Oscar Fantenberg, F Tyler Graovac, F Josh Leivo, D Ashton Sautner.

Projected Cap Space

At the moment, Vancouver has about $14.3MM in cap space to spend with a half dozen-or-so players they must re-sign. There is little room to maneuver. The team could try to find a taker for Loui Eriksson, who is killing the team’s cap situation at $6MM for the next two years, but with the cap flattening out, it could cost the team quite a bit to unload a contract like that. Throw in two more years of Roberto Luongo’s recapture penalty at $3.04MM, the team may have to watch as several free agents either walk away or the team trades away others to hold onto them.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Focus: Vegas Golden Knights

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With free agency now less than a month away, many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign.  Vegas has most of their core under contract already but a few veterans will be in need of new deals.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Chandler Stephenson – He was acquired midseason in what amounted to a salary cap dump by Washington and the fit has been terrific.  The 26-year-old wound up with 22 points in 41 games with the Golden Knights, an impressive partial-season performance considering his previous career high in scoring was 16 points.  He has been a regular for them this postseason as well, averaging nearly 16 minutes per night.  Stephenson looked like someone that might be a candidate to not be tendered a qualifying offer at the beginning of the year despite his $1.05MM price tag but now, he should be part of their future plans although salary arbitration eligibility looms large.

F Nick Cousins – He started off the season with Montreal after being non-tendered by the Coyotes last summer and was used from anywhere between the second and fourth lines.  However, his role has been a bit more limited since joining the Golden Knights where he has largely been deployed in their bottom six and is currently on the outside looking in at a spot in the lineup.  A $1MM qualifying offer doesn’t seem like much but he was non-tendered to avoid arbitration last year and it’s possible that it happens again here.

Other RFAs: F Reid Duke, F Keegan Kolesar, D Brett Lernout, F Gage Quinney, D Jimmy Schuldt

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

G Robin Lehner – This appears to be a situation where ‘if there’s smoke, there’s probably fire’ when it comes to a new deal.  Multiple reports have him closing in on a long-term pact with Vegas with a price tag around his current $5MM mark but he has denied that a contract is done.  Lehner wasn’t able to get a long-term contract last summer despite his strong season with the Islanders but he played well with Chicago before being brought in as insurance for Marc-Andre Fleury.  However, he has outperformed Fleury and taken over the starting job in the process.  That has him well-positioned to earn the contract security he has been coveting, whether it’s in Vegas or elsewhere.

F Tomas Nosek – He isn’t going to win any scoring titles but the 28-year-old has been consistent over his three seasons with Vegas, collecting 15, 17, and 15 points over that span while playing multiple positions and contributing defensively.  He’s best deployed in a limited role which offsets some of his versatility but he should be able to garner some interest on the open market if he doesn’t stay with Vegas.  He made $1MM this season and his next contract should come in around that rate as well.

D Deryk Engelland – While his role this season was lower than his other two, the 38-year-old still managed to hold his own in 47 games while bringing plenty of physicality.  However, it wasn’t enough to play a regular role in the playoffs as he has suited up just seven times so far.  Nevertheless, there is still a spot for Engelland as a sixth or seventh defenseman on a team if he wants to play beyond this year.  He signed for a league minimum base salary to stay with Vegas last summer (though he has hit the majority of his $800K in potential bonuses) and he’ll need to do so again if he wants to remain with them for a fourth year.

Other UFAs: W Curtis McKenzie, D Jaycob Megna, D Jon Merrill, G Garret Sparks, F Valentin Zykov

Projected Cap Space

At the moment, Vegas has roughly $76.5MM committed to 18 players for next season, per CapFriendly.  That amount doesn’t include a $571K bonus overage penalty which could actually increase slightly as one of Engelland’s bonuses is $25K per playoff round won.  That doesn’t leave them room to re-sign Lehner and fill out the rest of their roster so there is some work to be done still.

Speculatively speaking, if Lehner re-signs, Marc-Andre Fleury’s days with the team will likely be numbered.  However, with a $7MM cap hit for two more years, it’s all but a guarantee that Vegas will have to retain a good chunk of that to move him.  However, if they can do that without taking a contract in return, it might be enough to keep Lehner around and round out the roster although they’ll be right at the $81.5MM Upper Limit once again.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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