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Trade Deadline Primer: Florida Panthers

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Although we’re just two months into the season, the trade deadline is already less than a month away.  Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make?  We continue our look around the league with the Florida Panthers.

The Florida Panthers are in an unusual position. Usually a team that is either standing pat or selling, the team has taken a whole new level under head coach Joel Quenneville, becoming a dominant team in the East as they sit just two points behind first-place Tampa Bay with the Carolina Hurricanes just one point behind them. However, no other team is particularly close behind those three teams, practically guaranteeing them a playoff spot. The question is, however, can they get out of the East?

Record

20-6-4, 44 points, 2nd in Central Division

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$8.48MM in full-season space ($15.98MM at the trade deadline), 1/3 retention slots used, 45/50 contracts used per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2021: FLR 1st, FLR 2nd, FLR 3rd, FLR 4th, FLR 5th, FLR 6th, FLR 7th, WIN 7th
2022: FLR 1st, FLR 2nd, FLR 3rd, FLR 4th, FLR 5th, FLR 6th, FLR 7th

Trade Chips

The Panthers best asset is someone who isn’t even signed to a contract. The team let forward Henrik Borgstrom leave for the Liiga this offseason, but still retain the restricted free agent’s rights. The once-highly touted prospect has struggled in the Panthers organization despite his incredible success in two years at the University of Denver. Borgstrom played in 50 games for Florida during the 2018-19 season, playing mostly a third-line role, scoring eight goals and 18 points. The belief last year was that Borgstrom would move up into the lineup and improve on those numbers. Instead, he spent most of the season with the Springfield Thunderbirds of the AHL, where he struggled and was rumored to be unhappy with his role. Regardless, he is still a player that has value and could be a valuable chip for a rebuilding team that could use a player that could immediately step into an NHL lineup. With HIFK Helsinki in the Liiga, the 23-year-old Borgstrom has 11 goals and 19 points in 27 games.

Florida also has a full complement of draft picks over the next two years, another way to pry a veteran player loose from selling teams. The team has drafted in the late lottery in the past few years, but now will be drafting much later. That makes those picks much more tradeable with many teams eager to get their hands on any first-rounder.

Others to Watch For: F Brett Connolly ($2.43MM, 2023 UFA); F Aleksi Heponiemi ($925K, 2022 RFA); D Keith Yandle ($6.35MM, 2023 UFA)

Team Needs

1) Top-Six Forward – The Panthers have been quite successful this season and have done it with a number of players who normally wouldn’t have been considered top-six players a year ago, including Patric Hornqvist and Alexander Wennberg. The team could use a big boost if they could add a significant piece to their top-six, which would allow either Hornqvist or Wennberg to move a line back and fortify the team’s depth. The team could definitely use more experience up front, pushing one of those two down to the third line. Of course, Hornqvist has been thriving this year with 11 goals and 24 points in 30 games, suggesting the team might be better off looking to add a center instead, but the team could certainly look to add more offense, no matter what it adds.

2) Top-Four Defenseman – The Panthers might want to make a play for a top-four defenseman who can play next to Aaron Ekblad. There are rumors that the team is looking at young players like Vince Dunn and Dante Fabbro as potential long-term pieces to the franchise. Florida does have a significant number of prospects, if they are willing to move them, to acquire a core piece and give the team extra defensive depth, even if they are 11th in the NHL in goals allowed.

Anthony Duclair And Anton Stralman Expected To Return Tonight

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  • The Panthers will have winger Anthony Duclair and defenseman Anton Stralman back in their lineup tonight against Chicago, relays George Richards of Florida Hockey Now (Twitter link). Duclair has done relatively well in his first season with Florida, picking up two goals and eight assists in 19 games and had missed the last six games with a lower-body injury.  Meanwhile, Stralman, who had missed four straight with a lower-body issue of his own, sits third among Florida blueliners in ATOI at 20:09 per contest.

Markus Nutivaara And Anthony Duclair Expected To Play On Upcoming Road Trip

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  • Panthers defenseman Markus Nutivaara and winger Anthony Duclair will accompany the team on their five-game road trip, reports Jameson Olive of Florida’s team website (Twitter link), suggesting the veterans are nearing a return. Nutivaara has missed the last nine games with an upper-body injury while Duclair missed his first game Monday due to a lower-body issue but it appears he won’t be out for long.

Florida Panthers To Sign Logan Hutsko To Entry-Level Contract

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Mar 1: The Panthers had to wait until March to officially announce the deal because the two-year, entry-level contract will begin in the 2021-22 season. Panthers GM Bill Zito released a short statement on him:

Throughout Logan’s collegiate career, he displayed unmatched determination and character. He possesses a dynamic level of skill, coupled with great pace and compete. We are excited for Logan’s future and look forward to his continued development in our organization.

Feb 11: Logan Hutsko’s season came to a surprising end this week after it was reported that a lingering ankle injury would keep him out for the remainder of the campaign. A senior at Boston College, Hutsko had the option to return for a fifth season due to the NCAA granting an extra year of eligibility to current athletes. He also could have waited until August to become an unrestricted free agent and sign with any NHL team. Instead, he will do neither. The Panthers prospect has committed to the team that drafted him, as TSN’s Frank Seravalli reports that Hutsko has agreed to terms on an entry-level contract with Florida.

Hutsko, a Florida native, is a quality addition to the pipeline for the Panthers. The 22-year-old has been a top contributor at Boston College in each of his four years. In fact, it was Hutsko’s near point-per-game freshman season that got him selected by Florida in the third round of the 2018 NHL Draft. Were it not for injuries, he likely would have been selected even higher. While Hutsko has had some durability issues throughout his young career, he has still managed to record 101 points in 114 games as a top scorer for one of the top programs in the nation.

A product of Shattuck St. Mary’s, the U.S. National Team Development Program, and the historic Boston College program, Hutsko has had an elite developmental path and the result is a polished prospect. While his skill and skating may not be first class, his hockey IQ and work ethic certainly are. With a mature game and the versatility to play center or right wing, Hutsko should have the opportunity to push for a role in Florida sooner rather than later. As long as he can stay healthy, Hutsko may even find a permanent place in the Panthers lineup in no time.

Brett Connolly Clears Waivers

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Mar 1: Like almost every other skater this season, Connolly has cleared waivers. He can now be assigned to the taxi squad or sent to the minor leagues.

Feb 28: The Florida Panthers put forward Brett Connolly on waivers, according to Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston. The one-time Stanley Cup champion with the Washington Capitals has struggled in Florida this year as the team hopes to move him to their taxi squad if he goes unclaimed.

The 28-year-old forward has put up just one goal and three points in 16 games with Florida this year, which likely isn’t good enough for head coach Joel Quenneville, who is trying to build a winner in Florida. Connolly has been relegated to fourth-line duties and now has been scratched four of the last five games.

Connolly is just another veteran who finds himself on waivers. The forward helped lead Washington to the Stanley Cup title back in 2018. He then took his game up a level with Washington the next season, scoring career-highs with 22 goals and 46 points in his free-agent year. The Panthers swooped in and signed him to a four-year, $14MM contract in the summer of 2019. He posted solid numbers in his first year under Quenneville, scoring 19 goals and 33 points. However, this year has been a totally different story.

Connolly, despite his experience as a solid bottom-six forward, isn’t a likely candidate to be claimed due to his $3.5MM AAV and the fact that he has another two years on his contract after this year. That should be enough to scare teams away from claiming him.

Radko Gudas To Return, Gustav Forsling Out With Lower-Body Injury

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  • Florida will have defenseman Radko Gudas back in their lineup tonight versus Carolina, notes Jameson Olive of the Panthers’ team website (Twitter link). He was a late scratch on Thursday night due to an upper-body injury.  Gudas is fifth on the team in ATOI by a defender, logging just over 17 minutes per game in his first season in Florida.  Meanwhile, they’ll be without Gustav Forsling due to a lower-body issue.  The early-season waiver claim has been held off the scoresheet in eight games so far this season.

Poll: NHL’s “Thanksgiving Trend” Revisited

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Fans of the NHL are sure to be familiar with the deeper meaning that American Thanksgiving holds each season. With unrelenting consistency, the NHL’s standings on the final Thursday of November have had great predictive ability when compared to the final regular season standings. In fact, over the past seven years the Thanksgiving standings have been about 75% accurate at forecasting eventual playoff teams, predicting 12 of 16 spots on average. Even though American Thanksgiving only rolls around less than two months into the season, three out of four teams in a playoff spot at that time will have retained their postseason berth when the season ends.

The 2019-20 season of course did not have a standard postseason, but if it had then the Thanksgiving trend would have proved even more prophetic in a shortened campaign. Last year, in which teams were limited to between 68 and 71 games apiece prior to the early termination of the regular season, the Thanksgiving standings would have predicted 13 of 16 playoff teams in the standard format. Of the three teams that would have slid out of the postseason, the Florida Panthers trailed the Toronto Maple Leafs by .014 points percentage in the Atlantic Division and the Winnipeg Jets missed out by a measly .001 points percentage behind the Calgary Flames as the final Western Conference wild card. The Thanksgiving standings were that close to predicting 15 of 16 playoff teams in the shortened season, with the unexpected slow start for the Vegas Golden Knights and hot start for the Arizona Coyotes being the other unsurprising course correction.

But how does this trend impact a season that didn’t even begin until well after American Thanksgiving? Based on total games played by Thanksgiving over the past few seasons, Thanksgiving represents about the 30% progress through the NHL season. In the current 56-game season, that comes out to about the 17-game mark. Although postponements and rescheduling have created a wide discrepancy in games played among teams this year, the league as a whole passed that 17-game average on Saturday: Happy Thanksgiving. Admittedly, the 2020-21 campaign does have a different playoff model as well, one that is somewhat stricter than the last few years without the fallback of a wildcard spot for a team on the fifth-place fringe in their division. Yet, it is still a 16-team postseason and the Thanksgiving trend should hold. Using points percentage to rank the standings (the stat may end up determining playoff position for a second consecutive season anyhow) and adjusting for the season’s makeshift divisions, here is the current “Thanksgiving” outlook:

North Division                                                             East Division

Toronto Maple Leafs (.789)                                    Boston Bruins (.733)
Montreal Canadiens (.625)                                     Philadelphia Flyers (.679)
Winnipeg Jets (.618)                                                 Washington Capitals (.594)
Edmonton Oilers (.600)                                          Pittsburgh Penguins (.594)____
Calgary Flames (.472)                                                        New Jersey Devils (.583)
Vancouver Canucks (.405)                                                New York Islanders (.559)
Ottawa Senators (.237)                                                      New York Rangers (.469)
                                                                                                Buffalo Sabres (.429)

West Division                                                                Central Division

Vegas Golden Knights (.700)                                   Carolina Hurricanes (.781)
Colorado Avalanche (.679)                                       Florida Panthers (.750)
St. Louis Blues (.611)                                                  Tampa Bay Lightning (.700)
Minnesota Wild (.571)                                                Dallas Stars (.583)                    
Los Angeles Kings (.531)                                                    Chicago Blackhawks (.579)
Arizona Coyotes (.500)                                                       Columbus Blue Jackets (.526)
San Jose Sharks (.500)                                                       Nashville Predators (.412)
Anaheim Ducks (.417)                                                         Detroit Red Wings (.325)

Now this begs the question, especially seeing how accurate the Thanksgiving standings were in last year’s shortened season but also accounting for the many disruptions for a number of teams early this season, who is the trend currently overlooking? Which teams currently outside the playoff picture, if any, do you think will make the postseason when all is said and done later this season? Use the comments section below as well to discuss which teams may fall out of the postseason and whether you feel the Thanksgiving trend will apply this season.

[mobile users click here to vote]

Olli Jokinen Hired As Head Coach Of Liiga’s Jukurit

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Who needs coaching experience when you have 17 seasons of NHL playing experience on your resume? Jukurit of the Liiga, the top pro level in Finland, has announced that former NHL star Olli Jokinen has been hired as the club’s head coach beginning next season, inking two-year deal with a third option year. Jokinen, who retired from the NHL in 2015, is the founder and head coach of the South Florida Hockey Academy youth program, but has not coached at the professional or junior level.

Jokinen, 42, had enough talent as a player, as well as the respect of his teammates, coaches, and competitors, to warrant this major career move. The 1997 No. 3 overall pick began played his developmental hockey at home in Finland, but jumped to North America to join the Los Angeles Kings right after he was drafted. Thus began an 18-year pro career that included 1,231 NHL games (eight 82-game seasons) with ten different organizations, resulting in 750 career points, an All-Star nod, and many other accolades. Of all of his NHL stops, Jokinen spent the most time with the Florida Panthers, suiting up for the team for seven seasons, including four as captain. Jokinen was also a mainstay on Finland’s international entries, winning a World Junior gold medal and a number of other Olympic and World Championship medals.

Jokinen returned to his adopted home of Florida after retirement and has been working on the other side of the game, coaching top U-16 players at the AAA level in Coral Springs. His own nephew, Sami Jokinen, is a recent graduate of the program and is playing junior hockey for KalPa in Finland. Perhaps he will play for his uncle again in the future as Jokinen now take a major step forward in his coaching career with Jukurit. The team’s history is fitting for Jokinen, as they too are relatively new to the Liiga. A former Mestis powerhouse, Jukurit moved to the Liiga in 2016-17. It has been a difficult transition, as they have missed the playoffs in each of their first four seasons and appear likely to do so again this year. The club is currently in 13th (out of 15) and nine points out of even a play-in postseason berth despite having played several more games. Jukurit has not finished above 13th in the final standings since their first Liiga season.

Fortunately, the addition of Jokinen is not only just for his coaching potential. The veteran NHLer will also be the new face of the franchise when it comes to recruiting free agents and prospects. With upwards of 16 players on expiring contracts or loans unlikely to be back next season, the Jukurit roster should look very different next season and with Jokinen’s help could be much-improved. With Jokinen leading the team and NHL prospects Axel Rindell (TOR) and Henri Nikkanen (WPG) as centerpieces, Jukurit hopes to turn the page on their franchise history and become Liiga contenders.

 

COVID Protocol Related Absences: 02/13/21

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Each day, the NHL will publicly release the list of players that are unavailable to their respective teams due to being in COVID-19 protocol. On a positive note, no new players have been put on the list, but quite a few have been removed from the list. The Los Angeles Kings list is being put together now, but there has been a report from John Hoven that both Blake Lizotte and Andreas Athanasiou are both off the list:

Arizona – John Hayden
Buffalo – Dylan Cozens, Rasmus Dahlin, Curtis Lazar, Jake McCabe, Casey Mittelstadt, Brandon Montour, Tobias Rieder, Rasmus Ristolainen
Colorado –  Samuel Girard, Tyson Jost, Gabriel Landeskog
Detroit – Calvin Pickard
Los Angeles – TBA
Minnesota –  Nick Bonino, Jonas Brodin, Ian Cole, Brad Hunt, Victor Rask, Carson Soucy, Nico Sturm, Cam Talbot
New Jersey – Nathan Bastian, Jesper Bratt, Connor Carrick, Eric Comrie, Nikita Gusev, Nico Hischier, Jack Hughes, Dmitry Kulikov, Damon Severson, Ty Smith, Matt Tennyson, Sami Vatanen, Travis Zajac
NY Rangers – Filip Chytil
Philadelphia – Justin Braun, Morgan Frost, Claude Giroux, Travis Sanheim, Jakub Voracek, Scott Laughton, Oskar Lindblom*
Tampa Bay – Steven Stamkos
Vegas – Tomas Nosek

As a reminder, inclusion on this list does not mean that a player has tested positive for Coronavirus or even that they have been confirmed as a close contact to another positive person. Included in the NHL’s list of possible reasons for someone being on the list is are the following:

(1) an initial positive test which remains unconfirmed until confirmatory testing is completed pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (2) mandated isolation for symptomatic individuals pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (3) required quarantine as a high-risk close contact in accordance with the Positive Test Protocol; (4) isolation based on a confirmed positive test result and/or; (5) quarantine for travel or other reasons as outlined in the COVID-19 Protocol

Players removed today: Taylor Hall (Sabres), Ryan Carpenter (Chicago), Andreas Johnsson (Devils), Janne Kuokkanen (Devils), Michael McLeod (Devils), Kyle Palmieri (Devils), Pavel Zacha (Devils); Anthony Duclair (Panthers), Jesse Puljujarvi (Oilers), , Marcus Johansson (Wild), Jared Spurgeon (Wild), Joel Eriksson Ek (Wild), Nick Bjugstad (Wild)

Ryan Lomberg Clears Waivers

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Saturday: Lomberg has cleared waivers, reports Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman.  Florida Hockey Now’s George Richards adds that the winger is expected to be assigned to the taxi squad.

Friday: The Florida Panthers have placed Ryan Lomberg on waivers, according to Chris Johnston of Sportsnet. The 26-year-old has played just a single game this season.

Markus Nutivaara was activated to the roster and played for the first time last night, taking away one of the open spots that the team was moving players in and out of. Waiving Lomberg will allow them to move him back and forth whenever needed, opening up roster sports as required. The undersized forward faces little risk of claim, given he’s played in only 12 career NHL games and is still looking for his second point. No, Lomberg isn’t around for his offense, but with a two-year one-way guarantee, it seems unlikely that anyone will snatch him up.

In fact, it seems unlikely that any depth skater will be claimed at this point in the season unless it’s a dire situation on the other end. Of the dozens of players that have been through waivers since the start of the season, only goaltenders—Anton Forsberg, Troy Grosenick, and Aaron Dell—have been claimed. Luca Sbisa and Rudolfs Balcers were both snatched in the flood of cuts before the season started, but now that things are chugging along, players have moved through the wire untouched.

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