- The Panthers announced (Twitter link) that center Anton Lundell will not play tonight due to an upper-body injury. This means that once again, Florida will be forced to play short a player as they do not have enough cap space to call anyone up. While they’d become eligible for a cap-exempt recall after today’s game, Lundell’s absence appears to be a short-term one as he’s expected to play against Winnipeg on Tuesday. The sophomore middleman has 13 points in 24 games so far this season.
Panthers Rumors
What Your Team Is Thankful For: Florida Panthers
As American Thanksgiving and the holiday season are upon us, PHR is taking a look at what teams are thankful for in 2022-23. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We’ll examine what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Florida Panthers.
Who are the Panthers thankful for?
You might think the easy answer here is Matthew Tkachuk. The newcomer is leading the team in points by a wide mile and has established himself as the new face of the franchise next to Aleksander Barkov. But given how Sergei Bobrovsky has played so far this year, the Panthers would be absolutely lost without Knight’s performance.
The 21-year-old netminder has posted a .919 save percentage in 13 games, essentially taking over of late. With a win last night, he became the fastest goaltender in franchise history to 30 wins, reaching that number in just 42 starts. A .919 isn’t world-beating, but when compared to the .878 that Bobrovsky has recorded, it seems like an entirely different class of performance. The veteran netminder – who is still set to earn $10MM in each of the next three seasons – has allowed five or more goals in three of his last five appearances, and the only reason it isn’t worse is that he was pulled after allowing four in the first period a few weeks ago.
Bobrovsky has gone through these bad stretches before and rebounded nicely. Last season he led the entire league with 39 wins and had a solid .913 save percentage. But the stinkers are coming more frequently now, and without Knight’s emergence, the Panthers would be stuck without an answer.
What are the Panthers thankful for?
The impatience of other teams.
When you take a look at how the Panthers were built, it really is impressive how many reclamation projects or fringe players they have found success with. Carter Verhaeghe was a minor league forward that had 13 points for the Tampa Bay Lightning in his only NHL experience before coming to Florida. He is now the team’s second-leading scorer with 20 points in 24 games.
Brandon Montour was acquired for a third-round pick from the Buffalo Sabres, who were fed up with his inconsistent play. He too has 20 points in his first 22 games this season, and is averaging close to 25 minutes a night. Sam Bennett, the playoff-only performer from the Calgary Flames, has turned into a consistent two-way player with the Panthers – even playing center again. Gustav Forsling, probably the team’s most consistent defensive presence, was claimed off waivers. Colin White, nabbed after a buyout.
That’s not even counting Anthony Duclair, who hasn’t played yet this season as he rehabs a torn Achilles.
The Panthers aren’t really built through the draft like so many other good teams. Outside of Barkov, Knight, Anton Lundell, and Aaron Ekblad, the rest of their team has been put together by taking advantage of specific situations. The question now will be whether they can pull off another couple of moves to vault them back into real Stanley Cup contention this season.
What would the Panthers be even more thankful for?
Continued health for Ekblad.
It’s been a long time since Aaron Ekblad was consistently healthy. The 26-year-old’s 61 games last season felt a full year compared to the nightmare 2020-21 season, and he showed what he could do. Fifty-seven points in 61 games and sixth place in the Norris Trophy voting led to high expectations for this year. But he has missed half the season already due to injury, only making his return recently.
If somehow, Ekblad can play in every game for the rest of the year, the Panthers will have an elite defenseman to lean on. But after Mackenzie Weegar’s departure, the depth chart is a lot less forgiving should he miss more time. Fans in Florida are dying to see what the 2014 first-overall pick could do with another 82-game season.
What should be on the Panthers’ holiday wish list?
Defensive depth.
Speaking of Weegar, the Panthers sure could use someone like him right now. The team has leaned heavily on the top three of Ekblad, Montour, and Forsling this year, to the point where all three are averaging close to 24 minutes a night. While Radko Gudas is a fine piece to include, and Marc Staal is doing as much as he’s capable of, the team needs another defenseman. Josh Mahura has been fine in that sixth spot, but there are nights the coaching staff doesn’t even trust him to play ten minutes.
The forward group will get a boost when Duclair comes back, and Barkov won’t be snake-bitten all year. But if that defense were to face two key injuries at the same time, it would likely mean any chance of contention is out the door. The Panthers need to reinforce the group, though maybe not in the same way they did a year ago.
At the deadline, Florida used a first-round pick to land Ben Chiarot, who didn’t exactly work out the way they had hoped. They are already missing a huge number of picks thanks to the Tkachuk deal, meaning they’ll have to get creative about how they add some talent to the back end.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Salary Cap Deep Dive: Florida Panthers
Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2022-23 season and beyond. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Florida Panthers
Current Cap Hit: $85,265,406 (over the $82.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
G Spencer Knight (one year, $925K)
F Anton Lundell (two years, $925K)
Potential Bonuses
Knight: $1.85MM
Lundell: $850K
Total: $2.7MM
Lundell had a very nice rookie season, establishing himself as a key two-way center in a hurry. He has been a bit quieter offensively to start this year but he still looks to be on track to be a part of their top six before too long. At that point, the price tag is going to get expensive quickly. A bridge deal could fall in the $4MM range as things stand and it will be difficult for them to work out a long-term agreement with their cap situation. At the moment, he’s on track to hit two of his ‘A’ bonuses ($425K in total).
We’ll dig into Knight’s next contract later but it’s worth highlighting here that $850K of his bonuses are ‘A’ ones and he’s on pace to hit four of those to max out. There’s a good chance at least some of those will have to roll over and be charged against the cap next season.
Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level
D Radko Gudas ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Patric Hornqvist ($5.3MM, UFA)
D Josh Mahura ($750K, RFA)
F Eric Staal ($750K, UFA)
D Marc Staal ($750K, UFA)
F Colin White ($1.2MM, RFA)
Hornqvist came over in 2020 from Pittsburgh in a trade that hasn’t aged well. The veteran had a good first season but has slowed down considerably to the point where he’s basically a fourth liner now. If he gets another deal after this, it’s likely to be closer to the $1MM mark with perhaps some potential bonuses as well. White was bought out by Ottawa and wanted to find a team that could give him a real role. So far, it looks like he made the right pick as he has been quite productive in the bottom six. If that continues, he’ll be well-positioned to more than double his price tag in arbitration. However, that could be a risk they don’t want to take. The oldest of the Staal brothers, Eric didn’t play at all last season and was only able to secure a PTO deal, one that lasted a couple of weeks into the year. If he gets another contract, it’ll be at the minimum as well.
Gudas is best known for the physicality he brings but he also can log top-four minutes while contributing positive possession numbers as well. As a right-shot defender, his market might be stronger than some expect next summer which should allow him to add at least a million to his current AAV on another multi-year agreement. Mahura was a waiver claim from Anaheim and has secured a spot on Florida’s third pairing. He’s not dominating but the fact he’s in there regularly gives him a chance to push for something closer to the $1MM mark with arbitration rights next summer. As for the defender among the Staal brothers, Marc likely left some money on the table to join Florida as he can still play on the third pairing and kill penalties. If he’s chasing a Cup, he’ll keep playing around this price tag. If not, he could creep past the $1MM mark next summer as well.
Signed Through 2023-24
F Nick Cousins ($1.1MM, UFA)
F Anthony Duclair ($3MM, UFA)
D Gustav Forsling ($2.667MM, UFA)
F Eetu Luostarinen ($1.5MM, RFA)
D Brandon Montour ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Sam Reinhart ($6.5MM, UFA)
Reinhart’s first season with the Panthers was a very successful one as he set new career highs across the board while producing more like a top-line center. However, he has struggled this season with numbers more in line with his first couple of years with Buffalo. If he can get back to the point-per-game mark, he can easily add a couple million per year on a max-term agreement if not a bit more than that. But if he goes back to producing more like he did with the Sabres, he might have a hard time commanding much more than what he’s getting now.
Duclair had a career year last season, really emerging as a consistent impact top-six winger for the first time. But lots of players had those performances last season with Florida and have stepped back a bit. In Duclair’s case, he has yet to play due to a torn Achilles and it’s an injury that will take a lot of time for him to get back up to speed once he does come back, forcing Florida’s hand from a salary cap perspective in the process. Realistically, it’s not going to be a good season when it comes to assessing what his next deal will be. Instead, the pressure will be on in 2023-24 when he’ll be at full strength to start the year that will allow him to show if his 58 points last year were the outlier or a sign of things to come.
Luostarinen established himself as a full-time regular for the first time last season which earned him this bridge deal. So far, he has improved upon his performance from last year and if he can become a 35-point player that moves up and down the lineup, doubling his current price tag could be doable. Cousins has bounced around a lot in recent years and his value on the open market is pretty much established at this point. He might have left a bit of money on the table to get a two-year commitment but what he’s making now should be close to his market value in 2024 as well.
Signed Through 2024-25
F Sam Bennett ($4.425MM, UFA)
D Aaron Ekblad ($7.5MM, UFA)
F Carter Verhaeghe ($4.167MM, UFA)
The Panthers took a gamble that Bennett had more to provide offensively as they acquired him back in 2021. He took off quickly with Florida and quickly inked this contract. For a power forward that can also play down the middle in a pinch, it would be a bargain as long as he stayed in the top six. That has certainly been the case so far as he set career highs across the board last year and is on pace for similar production this season. With the going rate being so high for impact power forwards, Bennett’s certainly on a below-market deal by a couple million at least.
Florida had Verhaeghe on a very below-market deal until this season. Even now, it’s still a very team-friendly contract. He has broken out offensively since joining Florida, becoming one of their most consistent scoring threats while seeing time on the top line. He’s getting paid well below what someone in that role with that type of production typically gets. It’s not as big of a bargain as it was before but it’s still a very good one. The price tag for this type of production might put him past $7MM when this deal is up.
Ekblad’s contract was at one point the richest given to a defenseman coming off an entry-level contract in NHL history; that has since been surpassed multiple times. When healthy, he is a legitimate all-situations top defender and with the market rate for that type of player jumping up as much as it has, he’s a good bargain for them as well. But staying healthy has been a challenge as he has missed significant time in each of the last three seasons (including this one). There’s still plenty of time for that to change and if he stays healthy the last couple of years, his AAV could jump past the $10MM mark next time around.
Aleksander Barkov To Miss Next Two Games Due To Illness
- Florida Panthers captain Aleksander Barkov will miss the team’s next two games due to illness, says Florida Hockey Now’s George Richards. The nature of Barkov’s illness is unknown, but apparently is serious enough that not only can Barkov not play in tomorrow’s game in Edmonton and Tuesday’s in Calgary, but the forward is not traveling with the Panthers for the Alberta leg of the road trip. After Tuesday, Florida will head out to Vancouver for a Thursday evening matchup with the Canucks, a game which Barkov has not been ruled out for. Barkov missed yesterday’s game against the St. Louis Blues with this same illness.
Florida Panthers Emergency Recall Aleksi Heponiemi
According to the team Sunday morning, the Florida Panthers have recalled forward Aleksi Heponiemi from the AHL’s Charlotte Checkers on an emergency basis. The Panthers were able to use an emergency recall after they played a skater short last night with Aleksander Barkov out due to illness.
This is Heponiemi’s second appearance on the Panthers’ roster this season. He was called up earlier in the month, playing two games before Florida returned him to the Checkers. He registered an assist and a +1 rating while averaging 10:28 of ice time.
A second-round pick in 2017, Heponiemi’s clout skyrocketed after a 118-point season with the WHL’s Swift Current Broncos in 2017-18. While his speed remains tantalizing, the scoring pace hasn’t quite translated to professional hockey, at least in North America. The Finn now serves as an alternate captain in Charlotte and has four goals, three assists, and seven points in 16 games there in 2022-23.
Unfortunately, even if Heponiemi can impress during his call-ups this year, he likely won’t be able to stay in the NHL. It’s another example of what can happen when a team flies too close to the sun in terms of the salary cap. Even with forward Anthony Duclair on long-term injured reserve, the team had just $82,675 remaining in their LTIR pool, according to CapFriendly, and could not add another contract to the active roster. By playing a skater short, the Panthers made themselves eligible for an emergency recall the following day without exceeding the cap’s Upper Limit.
Aleksander Barkov Questionable For Tonight
- Panthers center Aleksander Barkov is listed as a game-time decision for tonight’s game against St. Louis due to an illness, notes Colby Guy of Florida Hockey Now (Twitter link). Florida remains in a situation where they can only afford to carry the minimum number of players on their roster so if the captain isn’t able to play, they will once again have to dress only 17 skaters tonight.
Panthers Not Expected To Trade Patric Hornqvist
When Anthony Duclair is eventually ready to return from his Achilles injury, the Florida Panthers are going to need to make some moves. The team is using up nearly all of his $3MM in long-term injured reserve flexibility even with a roster of 20 players, meaning that much will need to come off the books to activate him.
Aleksander Barkov Expected To Return Saturday
- While the Panthers had to play short a player last night due to a lack of cap space, that won’t be the case for their game against Calgary on Saturday. Head coach Paul Maurice told reporters including Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald (Twitter link) that he is optimistic that center Aleksander Barkov will return for that contest after missing yesterday’s game against Dallas due to an undisclosed injury. Since they played with only 17 skaters for that one, they’re now allowed to make an emergency cap-exempt recall from AHL Charlotte but Maurice indicated that they don’t plan to do so at this time.
Lightning Claim Rudolfs Balcers Off Waivers
Rudolfs Balcers is staying in Florida. At least, he’s staying in the State of Florida as Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports (Twitter link) that the Lightning have claimed the winger off waivers from the Panthers.
The 25-year-old signed a one-year deal with Florida this past summer after being bought out by San Jose despite putting up 11 goals and 12 assists in 61 games last season, all career highs. He had played in all 14 games for the Panthers this season, potting two goals and two assists despite logging a little under 11 minutes of playing time per game. However, the team needed to waive someone in order to create a spot for Aaron Ekblad to be activated off LTIR and the team decided that Balcers was the better choice between him and veteran center Eric Staal.
Florida will be at 12 forwards on the active roster once that move is officially made later today with one of those being Patric Hornqvist who has been injured for more than a week. However, the team confirmed (Twitter link) that the veteran will be able to return today, meaning the Panthers will be able to ice a full roster although they won’t have enough cap space to carry any spare players which could be problematic when injuries arise.
Balcers could immediately jump into Tampa Bay’s lineup with the team only previously carrying the minimum 12 forwards including youngster Cole Koepke who hasn’t produced much in the early going as he has been held off the scoresheet through his first dozen career NHL contests. Balcers would be an upgrade on Koepke on their fourth line, one that won’t have any significant cap effects since he’s signed at the league minimum with arbitration eligibility next summer. With the Lightning only being able to afford cheap pickups while making sure they can be cap-compliant for when Anthony Cirelli is able to come off LTIR, this pickup is certainly a worthwhile one, especially if he’s able to produce at the level he did last season with the Sharks.
Rudolfs Balcers To Be Placed On Waivers
The Florida Panthers moved several players to the minor leagues yesterday to prepare for the return of Aaron Ekblad but they still needed a little bit more cap space to get their star defenseman off long-term injured reserve. Head coach Paul Maurice told reporters including Kate Engleson of Bally Sports that it will be Rudolfs Balcers hitting waivers today to make room.
Balcers, 25, got off to a quick start with the Panthers this year but has seen his ice time limited in recent weeks and has just one point in his last nine games. The Latvian forward cleared waivers just a few months ago with the San Jose Sharks and is on a one-year, one-way contract worth $750K.
Interestingly, as CapFriendly points out, while waiving Balcers with the intention of assigning him to the minor leagues will clear enough cap space for Ekblad – it only just makes it. The team would be at the minimum of 18 skaters on the roster and would have no room to call up anyone else. That can result in some very tricky situations if players suffer injuries that do not require injured reserve. In that case, the Panthers would need to make some additional moves or play shorthanded.
Staying pressed right up against the cap ceiling could have some serious financial ramifications for the Panthers in other ways, too. Both Anton Lundell and Spencer Knight have significant performance bonuses in their entry-level contracts that would be carried over to next season if the team does not have the cap space to fit them in this year. The pair could earn as much as $2.7MM combined, though they would have to hit specific metrics for that to happen. The team is currently dealing with an overage of $637.5K from this mechanism last season.
So while activating Ekblad is certainly going to help the team on the ice, the cap situation in Florida continues to be a difficult puzzle to navigate for general manager Bill Zito.