Expansion

Expansion Primer: New York Islanders

June 22, 2021 at 9:00 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 12 Comments

Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

In 2017, the New York Islanders were one of the few lucky teams not to lose a player in the Expansion Draft, as the Vegas Golden Knights selected free agent goaltender Jean-Francois Berube. They paid dearly for that privilege though, trading a first-round pick, second-round pick, and defenseman Jake Bischoff (as well as the contract of Mikhail Grabovski) in order for Vegas to take Berube. The team was also the only one to protect three forwards and five defensemen.

This time around, the Islanders are unlikely to pay a heavy price to keep their unprotected players from being selected in the NHL Expansion Draft and they are also expected to go with a more orthodox protection scheme. Will they lose a good player? Sure. However, two-time reigning GM of the Year winner Lou Lamoriello has left his team in decent shape as expansion approaches.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Josh Bailey, Mathew Barzal, Anthony Beauvillier, Kieffer Bellows, Cal Clutterbuck, Austin Czarnik, Michael Dal Colle, Jordan Eberle, Ross Johnston, Otto Koivula, Leo Komarov, Andrew Ladd, Anders Lee, Matt Martin, Brock Nelson, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Dmytro Timashov

Defense:
Sebastian Aho, Thomas Hickey, Nick Leddy, Scott Mayfield, Adam Pelech, Ryan Pulock, Parker Wotherspoon

Goalies:
Ken Appleby, Semyon Varlamov

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

F Casey Cizikas, D Braydon Coburn, D Andy Greene, F Kyle Palmieri, F Travis Zajac

Notable Exemptions

D Johnny Boychuk (Inj.), D Samuel Bolduc, D Noah Dobson, D Robin Salo, G Jakub Skarek, G Ilya Sorokin, F Oliver Wahlstrom

Key Decisions

When you miss the playoffs or even exit early, it is easier to look toward the future when it comes to making difficult decisions in regards to the Expansion Draft (see: Philadelphia Flyers). However, when it comes to the Islanders, their current deep playoff run could make that difficult. The team faces several decisions in which they must choose between a top veteran or a younger future piece and must sort that out.

However, there are some no-brainers to start. In goal, the team specifically signed Appleby only to expose him, allowing them to protect starter Varlamov. On defense, the tongue-twisting top pair of Pelech and Pulock are locked in for protection. At forward, young core pieces Barzal and Beauvillier and captain Lee are also guarantees.

After that, things get difficult. The seemingly easy call is to protect their other top-scoring veteran forwards. Bailey, Nelson, Eberle, and Pageau are all key pieces to this season and playoff run and are all signed long-term. However, Bailey and Eberle will both turn 32 next season and carry expensive contracts for several more years, but have shown signs of decline in recent seasons. They will both certainly be contributors for another year or possibly longer, but are they worth losing another forward and missing out on using the cap space elsewhere?

If any of that core group of top-nine forwards is not protected, other candidates include reliable fourth liners Clutterbuck and Martin. However, the player who deserves the most consideration is young Bellows. The 23-year-old forward is a 2016 first-round pick who produced with the USNTDP, in the NCAA, the WHL, and most recently the AHL. His scoring has yet to translate to the NHL, but it seems like a safe bet. With more time and opportunity, Bellows could easily be a top goal-scorer for an NHL team. Do the Islanders risk that team being the Seattle Kraken?

One thing that is certain is that the depth up front will ensure the Islanders use the 7-3 protetion scheme. On defense, behind Pelech and Pulock, it may seem like top-scoring defenseman Leddy should be the final pick and he very well may be. After some down years, Leddy impressed this season and was invaluable to the Islanders’ success. He also plays a key leadership role as an experienced, long-time member of the team.

However, Leddy’s age and his expiring contract could make him a diminishing asset for the team. In his place, they could keep the younger, more affordable, and arguably equally valuable Mayfield. Initially more of a stay-at-home defenseman, Mayfield has rounded out his game in recent years and with that his role has increased. At $1.45MM for two more years, Mayfield is a bargain and would have a greater total impact on the team if Leddy leaves after next season, even if Leddy is the superior performer next season alone. Is that enough to make him the selection? Another outside-the-box candidate would be 22-year-old Aho, who showed potential last season but took a step back this year.

Projected Protection List

F Josh Bailey
F Mathew Barzal
F Anthony Beauvillier
F Jordan Eberle
F Anders Lee
F Brock Nelson
F Jean-Gabriel Pageau

D Nick Leddy
D Adam Pelech
D Ryan Pulock

G Semyon Varlamov

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined. Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined. In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (3): Cal Clutterbuck, Leo Komarov, Matt Martin

Defensemen (1): Scott Mayfield

The Islanders’ current playoff run could very likely determine their approach to the Expansion Draft. If they feel strongly about their success in winning the East Division or if they are able to advance to the next round, they may feel that they are close enough to winning a Stanley Cup that they keep all of their top-performing veterans. Yet, if they win the Cup, perhaps that focus shifts back to the future and the emphasis becomes long-term assets. Either way, the Islanders will have to expose good players and after giving up a king’s ransom to Vegas in the last round of Expansion and already with a relatively shallow prospect pipeline and missing several draft picks, they are unlikely to make any side deals.

If available, a top veteran like Leddy, Bailey, or Eberle would be an easy pick for Seattle. However, assuming they are protected, Mayfield does stick out as the top option. The only issue there could be that there will be many teams who expose solid defensemen and don’t have any quality forwards available. A young, high-upside forward like Bellows may be hard to pass up. The Kraken will have plenty of options and the Islanders will lose a good player – likely their No. 4 defenseman or top forward prospect – but they will survive.

18 Players Exempt From Expansion Draft Due To Injury

June 21, 2021 at 5:50 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 6 Comments

One of the clauses in the expansion draft rules states that players still under contract but not expected to play again due to long-term or chronic injury will be exempt from the draft. In some cases, that allows a team that would normally need to protect them because of a no-movement clause to use that slot on someone else, or at least to avoid going through the paperwork to have them waive it. CapFriendly reports that this year, 18 players have been deemed exempt from the draft:

Ryan Kesler, Anaheim Ducks
Marian Hossa, Arizona Coyotes
Brandon Dubinsky, Columbus Blue Jackets
Brent Seabrook, Chicago Blackhawks
Andrew Shaw, Chicago Blackhawks
Stephen Johns, Dallas Stars
Henrik Zetterberg, Detroit Red Wings
Corey Crawford, New Jersey Devils
Luca Sbisa, Nashville Predators
Johnny Boychuk, New York Islanders
Matt Niskanen, Philadelphia Flyers
Zach Trotman, Pittsburgh Penguins
Alex Steen, St. Louis Blues
Marian Gaborik, Tampa Bay Lightning
Anders Nilsson, Tampa Bay Lightning
Micheal Ferland, Vancouver Canucks
Bryan Little, Winnipeg Jets
Henrik Lundqvist, Washington Capitals

Note that some of these players will be unrestricted free agents anyway, but their contracts for 2020-21 do not technically expire until after the expansion draft occurs.

The biggest takeaway here is in Chicago, where Seabrook holds a no-movement clause. The veteran defenseman is not expected to ever play again thanks to debilitating injuries, but he now also won’t need to officially waive his clause for the Blackhawks to protect someone else. Seabrook’s contract still has three more years on it and will cause a few complications for Chicago in regards to long-term injured reserve, but for all intents and purposes, he is retired.

Sbisa is also an interesting name to see among the list, given he played a game against Dallas in late January. The 31-year-old unfortunately suffered a concussion and as Adam Vingan of The Athletic tweets, has still not been cleared. He is an unrestricted free agent and is now ineligible for the expansion draft.

Expansion Primer: New York Rangers

June 21, 2021 at 2:18 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 16 Comments

If you picked a team that had the least painful expansion process the last time around, the New York Rangers may be near the top. They didn’t have to make a side deal with the Vegas Golden Knights and ended up losing Oscar Lindberg, a depth player who had averaged fewer than 11 minutes a night in 2016-17. Sure, he seemed like a useful piece, but he played just two more seasons in the NHL before heading back overseas. He’s now in the KHL, a long way removed from the Rangers roster. This time around, New York is still in a pretty strong position heading into the draft and likely will avoid losing a key player once again.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Artemi Panarin (NMC), Chris Kreider (NMC), Mika Zibanejad (NMC), Ryan Strome, Kevin Rooney, Jonny Brodzinski, Anthony Greco, Colin Blackwell, Julien Gauthier, Timothy Gettinger, Gabriel Fontaine, Ty Ronning, Filip Chytil, Pavel Buchnevich, Brett Howden

Defense:

Jacob Trouba (NMC), Anthony DeAngelo, Ryan Lindgren, Anthony Bitetto, Mason Geertsen, Brandon Crawley, Libor Hajek

Goalies:

Alexandar Georgiev, Keith Kinkaid

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

Phillip Di Giuseppe, Brendan Smith, Jack Johnson

Notable Exemptions

Alexis Lafreniere, Kaapo Kakko, Vitali Kravtsov, Morgan Barron, Adam Fox, K’Andre Miller, Zachary Jones, Tarmo Reunanen, Nils Lundkvist, Igor Shesterkin

Key Decisions

For the Rangers, who have started a rebuild since the last draft, the key is in their exemptions. The real core of the future in New York isn’t even eligible to be picked, meaning no matter who they choose to protect, the group will still have tons of talent coming back next season. That leaves really only fringe choices, just like when they decided to leave Lindberg–who was a regular in the lineup–exposed to the Golden Knights.

At forward, there are three players who have no-move clauses, but all of them would deserve protection anyway. Panarin, Kreider, and Zibanejad make the veteran part of the group upfront and are key pieces if the Rangers expect to compete for the playoffs next season. Chytil, who took a strong step forward this season, is a no-doubt choice for protection to make it four. There is perhaps an argument to be made for leaving Strome or Buchnevich available, given they each are scheduled for unrestricted free agency after the 2021-22 season (Buchnevich is an RFA this summer, but a one-year arbitration award would take him to the open market), but it seems much more likely that they both will be protected as valuable assets.

That leaves one spot for several names, with a case to be made for any of Rooney, Blackwell, Gauthier, or Howden. Many would lean toward the latter two because of their youth, but that doesn’t necessarily matter when a team is trying to make the playoffs in 2021-22. Rooney and Blackwell are both better NHL players right now than the two youngsters, meaning they could end up protected ahead of them. Blackwell especially showed he could be a legitimate depth scoring option for the Rangers this season, registering 12 goals and 22 points in 47 games. The fact that he is signed for next season at a cap hit less than the league minimum makes him a valuable piece.

On defense, things would have been much more interesting if DeAngelo hadn’t worn out his welcome so thoroughly. The 25-year-old defenseman was banished from the team earlier this season and is almost certainly going to be left unprotected in the expansion draft (if he’s still a Ranger by then). Trouba’s no-movement clause stifles any debate over his place on the list and Lindgren is an obvious choice after inking his new deal. Once again, that leaves just a single spot for GM Chris Drury to play with, and again it comes down to a decision between youth and experience. Hajek played in 44 games for the Rangers this season but wasn’t very effective, while Bitetto has at least shown he can handle a bottom-pairing role in the NHL.

Of course, these decisions are all subject to change dramatically should Drury decide to pull the trigger on a trade over the next few weeks. That defensive protection slot especially could be weaponized, if he decides that Hajek is worth risking to the Kraken. The Rangers could acquire another player that is at risk elsewhere, adding him to what is looking like quite the formidable defense group for 2021-22.

In net, there isn’t really a decision to be made. The team signed Kinkaid to fill the exposure requirements so that they could protect Georgiev. The fact that Shesterkin is still ineligible despite having already turned 25 saves them from a tough call.

Projected Protection List

F Artemi Panarin
F Chris Kreider
F Mika Zibanejad
F Ryan Strome
F Filip Chytil
F Pavel Buchnevich
F Colin Blackwell

D Jacob Trouba
D Ryan Lindgren
D Libor Hajek

G Alexandar Georgiev

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

Forwards (1): Kevin Rooney
Defensemen (2): Anthony DeAngelo, Anthony Bitetto

By protecting Blackwell, it does create a bit of an issue for Drury to fix. The team would then only have one forward left exposed who have both completed the requisite games played and is signed for next season. A quick contract for any of Di Giuseppe, Gauthier, or Howden would fix that problem though, something that shouldn’t be too much trouble. For defense, DeAngelo can serve as that exposure requirement if he’s still around, or Bitetto can take his place if the team makes a move in the coming weeks.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Expansion Primer: Ottawa Senators

June 20, 2021 at 4:22 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 3 Comments

The 2017 NHL Expansion Draft seemed like it was going to be a difficult blow to the Ottawa Senators. Coming off of a strong season and deep playoff run, a then-talented Senators lineup left several notable players exposed. The Vegas Golden Knights selected Marc Methot, a top-four defenseman who had provided an invaluable defensive and physical presence to the team. Yet, Methot – who was flipped by Vegas to the Dallas Stars – played just two more injury-riddled seasons before retiring. While the Senators’ downfall did begin in the 2017-18 season, it had nothing to do with the expansion loss of Methot.

This time around, the situation is almost exactly reversed. The Senators are coming off another poor season, but do seem to finally be back on the rise. Their rebuilding roster is full of exempt talent and those top performers who are eligible can largely all be protected. One way or another, Ottawa will likely lose a young player, but they have youth to spare and will be giving up potential rather than concrete value.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Vitaly Abramov, Michael Amadio, Drake Batherson, J.C. Beaudin, Clark Bishop, Connor Brown, Logan Brown, Evgenii Dadonov, Jonathan Davidsson, Jack Kopacka, Zach Magwood, Nick Paul, Logan Shaw, Chris Tierney, Brady Tkachuk, Austin Watson, Colin White

Defense:
Thomas Chabot, Josh Brown, Victor Mete, Nikita Zaitsev

Goalies:
Joey Daccord, Anton Forsberg, Filip Gustavsson, Marcus Hogberg, Matt Murray

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

F Artem Anisimov, F Ryan Dzingel, F Derek Stepan,

Notable Exemptions

D Jacob Bernard-Docker, D Erik Brannstrom, F Alex Formenton, F Joshua Norris, F Shane Pinto, F Egor Sokolov, F Tim Stutzle, D Lassi Thomson, D Artem Zub

Key Decisions

The first decision that the Senators need to make is whether or not this roster, as currently constituted, is worth using all of their protection slots on. Ottawa arguably has multiple protection slots at both forward and defense that could go to superior players, if only the team went out and acquired them. While most clubs across the NHL are struggling to protect all of their valuable assets, the Senators have room to spare with so much of their young roster exempt from protection. Ottawa has the opportunity to acquire players who would be exposed on other teams at discount prices ahead of the Expansion Draft, as they are one of the few teams with both the ability to protect them and the picks and prospects to acquire them. If they choose, the Senators could use the impending threat of expansion to step out of their rebuild and back into competitive status by adding veterans from a desperate market.

For this exercise, assume they don’t add anyone else; those questions still exist internally. Ottawa went out and re-acquired Dzingel even though he was on an expiring contract and the Senators were not in playoff contention this year. To this point, the two sides have not agreed on an extension and there has been no word of one either. However, it is to the team’s benefit to have some veterans in the locker room and Dzingel’s best seasons were earlier in his career in Ottawa. Rather than let the Kraken negotiate with him prior to the Expansion Draft, the team needs to decide if they want to re-sign him and if so should do so before another team can enter the fray. If Stepan is willing to stay in Ottawa, contrary to popular belief, the same scenario would apply to him.

Again, assuming Dzingel and Stepan remain UFA’s they are unlikely to be protected, especially if talks on a new contract have not gone far. Forward still remains the major area of decision-making for the Senators, as there are many eligible names and plenty of untapped potential. The likely locks include top young scorers Tkachuk and Batherson and veteran Connor Brown. Hard-working fan favorite Paul is also very likely to be protected.

Beyond that, Ottawa could go in a number of directions. They are however restricted by the exposure quota. Protecting the aforementioned four players leaves three spots available, but also just four forwards who meet the exposure requirements, meaning all three cannot be used on veteran lineup regulars. The leading candidates of those four to be protected are likely White and Dadonov. White has had an up-and-down couple of years, but the Senators believed in him enough to sign him to his current long-term contract. The same logic applies to the veteran Dadonov, who Ottawa chased as a free agent last off-season and signed to a substantial deal. He failed to impress overall in his first season with the club, but displayed his elite ability in spurts. It seems unlikely that they would part with either one already if they can help it. This would leave third line center Tierney and bottom-six winger Watson to meet the quota. Neither would be a major loss for Ottawa, but either one could argue for their protection over White or Dadonov based on consistency and two-way contribution.

The final forward spot will have to go to one of the Senators’ younger, less proven forwards. Top candidates include 2020-21 acquisitions Bishop and Amadio or prospects Abramov, Davidsson, or Logan Brown. Seeing as Bishop and Amadio both did little with their Ottawa experience this season and previously struggled with other teams, they are unlikely to be protected or selected by Seattle. Davidsson, who has produced in Sweden but failed to do so in North America, is probably not worth the investment. That leaves Abramov and Brown as the two most likely choices. Until recently, Abramov seemed like a safe bet given his strong AHL production, but after signing in the KHL for next season, his future contributions in Ottawa are now in question. Brown is a 2016 first-round pick with great size and presence at the center position who has shown flashes of promise in the AHL, but has yet to make an impact at the top level. Loaded with potential as both a physical force and skilled contributor, it would be hard to watch Brown leave and succeed elsewhere, but he has been given numerous chances to do so already in Ottawa.

In goal, there are plenty of options for the Senators, but who to protect should actually be a relatively easy decision for the club. Gustavsson, still just 23, looked excellent in his first NHL action this season, is a highly-touted prospect, and most importantly is waiver-exempt next season. If exposed, he is an ideal option to serve as Seattle’s No. 3 goalie next season and could blossom into an NHL starter. Unless the Senators want to use him as bait to draw the Kraken away from other exposed players, they need to protect Gustavsson or he will be taken. Daccord is not all that different from Gustavsson – a young, well-regarded, waivers-exempt goaltender. However, Daccord is two years older, has performed poorly in his brief NHL history, and is coming off of a season-ending surgery. Add in that he is signed long-term to a contract that becomes one-way, despite having shown that he can be a stable NHL presence yet, and Daccord is not as valuable as Gustavsson.

Funny enough, starter Murray is likely not in contention for protection at all. After a dismal start to his Senators career this season, Seattle is not touching his contract with three years remaining at a $6.25MM AAV. If they do, Ottawa will rejoice. As for 2020-21 primary backup Hogberg, he has signed overseas and the Senators have already revealed that he will not be qualified. The Kraken will not be interested in a 26-year-old UFA signed elsewhere. The final option in net, veteran Forsberg, is a career No. 3 who is also not a risk to be selected.

On defense, the decision is too easy, thus the question of whether Ottawa should add veterans to their roster before the Expansion Draft. Chabot is the lone lock and also the only player worth protecting on most NHL rosters. Waiver claim Mete looked good upon his arrival to Ottawa and is likely to be protected. The decision thus comes down to Zaitsev versus Brown: one is protected and the other fills the exposure requirement. Zaitsev was an everyday starter for Ottawa this season, but a poor one and signed to a bad, multi-year contract. Brown was a part-time player this year and showed little upside. Neither player should be protected, but the Senators will probably protect Brown as Zaitsev’s contract makes him the less likely of the two to be surprisingly selected by Seattle.

Projected Protection List

F Drake Batherson
F Connor Brown
F Logan Brown
F Evgenii Dadonov
F Nick Paul
F Brady Tkachuk
F Colin White

D Josh Brown
D Thomas Chabot
D Victor Mete

G Filip Gustavsson

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

Forwards (2): Chris Tierney, Austin Watson

Defensemen (1): Nikita Zaitsev

With capable veterans in Tierney and Watson (or Murray and Zaitsev if Seattle is struggling to hit the cap floor), the Senators could provide an NHL veteran to the Seattle roster. The odds-on favorite in that scenario is Tierney, as the Kraken will not have many skilled centers to choose from in the draft. More likely though, it will be one of Ottawa’s young prospect forwards who is selected. Of the group, Abramov may still be the most attractive and his KHL commitment for next season could actually be seen as a benefit. The Kraken must select 30 players, most of whom are not waiver-exempt, but can only have 23 players on the roster. A talented scoring forward playing overseas next season is a safe way to add future potential that also doesn’t need a roster spot and can’t be stolen on waivers. Abramov could return in a year or two and step right into a starting role.

As noted, Daccord could also be attractive as a minor league goaltending option for the Kraken, who will have few players that can safely clear waivers and could value that depth in net with Daccord, who brings experience and a track record of success in the NCAA and AHL. His NHL numbers are a concern, but he would have another year to develop in the minors before Seattle had to decide on giving him a roster spot or risking him on waivers.

The other option for Seattle would be to negotiate with one of Ottawa’s impending free agent forwards. Without a ton of options to select from the active roster, instead agreeing to terms with a Dzingel or Stepan could be the way to go for the Kraken. Either one could be a superior forward to Tierney or Watson in the right system.

Expansion Primer: San Jose Sharks

June 17, 2021 at 4:00 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 6 Comments

Back in 2017, the San Jose Sharks ended up losing David Schlemko to the Vegas Golden Knights in the expansion process after they decided not to make any side deals with the incoming team. Vegas decided on Schlemko with the intention of a trade and quickly flipped him to the Montreal Canadiens for a fifth-round pick. The Sharks are the perfect example in favor of just letting the expansion process play out, as the Golden Knights ended up leaving other names like Brenden Dillon on the table. Schlemko played just 55 more NHL games and was out of professional hockey after the 2018-19 season.

At that point, the Sharks were a recent Stanley Cup runner-up and had been to the playoffs 13 of the previous 14 seasons. It’s a much different situation this time after two years of missing the postseason and the protection options show how thin the roster is getting.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Logan Couture, Evander Kane, Timo Meier, Tomas Hertl, Kevin Labanc, Ryan Donato, Alexander True, Rudolfs Balcers, Jayden Halbgewachs, Dylan Gambrell, Jonatan Dahlen

Defense:

Erik Karlsson (NMC), Brent Burns, Marc-Edouard Vlasic (NMC), Radim Simek, Christian Jaros, Jacob Middleton, Nicolas Meloche

Goalies:

Martin Jones, Josef Korenar

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

Marcus Sorensen, Matthew Nieto, Patrick Marleau, Kurtis Gabriel, Maxim Letunov, Greg Pateryn

Notable Exemptions

Alexander Barabanov, John Leonard, Nikolai Knyzhov, Mario Ferraro, Noah Gregor, Alexei Melnichuk, Sasha Chmelevski, Ivan Chekhovich

Key Decisions

Overall, the Sharks are facing a tough offseason. How do you retool and get the roster back to contender status when you have so much money tied up in aging players? The contracts handed out to the old core are anchors on the roster now, especially in a flat-cap world, and there are holes all over the place. With that in mind, the Sharks could potentially use the expansion draft as an opportunity, trying to bait (or entice) the Kraken into taking one of those contracts off the books.

That discussion starts (and perhaps ends) with Burns, the bearded, unique, franchise icon that has done so many incredible things for the Sharks. Burns turned 36 in March and just had his second-worst offensive season (even by points-per-game) since arriving in San Jose a decade ago. Gone are the days of the 20+ goal, point-per-game rover that took home the Norris Trophy in 2017 and yet, there are still four more years on his contract at an $8MM cap hit. It’s not that Burns is completely ineffective, but the idea of having his contract vanish has to be at least a little bit enticing for GM Doug Wilson. That’s a tough trigger to pull given how popular he is in the market, but it actually might be the most effective way to clear some space.

A move like that is only even a possibility because both Karlsson and Vlasic have no-movement clauses that force San Jose to protect them in the draft. Getting out from either one of their contracts—seven more years at $11.5MM for Karlsson and five at $7MM for Vlasic—would be ideal, but isn’t possible unless Wilson can somehow convince them to waive their clause.

If the team goes with the traditional seven forwards/three defensemen protection scheme, which is likely, that basically makes the decision either Burns or Simek for the last spot. The 28-year-old Simek signed a four-year, $9MM contract just over a year ago and looked like a stable, stay-at-home foil for Burns or Karlsson, but has quickly been passed on the depth chart by younger options. Though he dealt with some injuries this season, Simek only averaged 14:13 in ice time through 40 appearances and really doesn’t need to be protected at this point.

Upfront, things are a little more favorable. Couture, Kane, Meier, Hertl, and Labanc seem like locks for protection, even though not all of them lived up to their contracts this season. Even though Meier and Labanc only had 12 goals each, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to expose them and give up on the chance for a bounceback in 2021-22.

That leaves two protection spots available at forward and there are several options. Donato was supposed to reach another level in San Jose after being acquired for a third-round pick in October, but managed just six goals and 20 points in 50 games. He is actually a restricted free agent, so even if the team wants to leave him exposed to fill a required spot he’d need a new contract first. Balcers showed flashes potential and could likely warrant a spot, while Gambrell is at least still young enough to hopefully take a step forward offensively.

The real wildcard is Dahlen, who just signed a contract to return from Sweden after dominating the second tier there. The 23-year-old is the kind of boom-or-bust prospect that an expansion team would love to get their hands on, meaning San Jose is probably going to have to protect him. There’s no guarantee Dahlen ever works in the NHL, but his offensive skill makes him so intriguing that Seattle would have to take a swing.

In net, it seems obvious to leave Jones exposed and protect Korenar. Even though the young goaltender didn’t perform particularly well in his ten-game stint this season, Jones has been so bad for so long now that it would be a miracle to get his contract off the books. For three straight seasons, Jones has posted an .896 save percentage as the team’s starting goaltender and he has three years at $5.75MM left on his deal.

Projected Protection List

F Logan Couture
F Evander Kane
F Timo Meier
F Tomas Hertl
F Kevin Labanc
F Jonatan Dahlen
F Rudolfs Balcers

D Erik Karlsson
D Marc-Edouard Vlasic
D Brent Burns

G Josef Korenar

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

Forwards (0)
Defensemen (1): Radim Simek

The Sharks actually don’t have either of their required forward spots filled if they protect those top five, but could easily fix this with new contracts for Donato and Gambrell. Even re-signing Marleau would give them one, if the all-time games played leader is serious about returning for another season. Remember though that this isn’t a perfect situation to be in, given that both Donato and Gambrell are arbitration-eligible. It’s doesn’t help leverage much when the other side knows the contract they are signing may immediately go to another team. Either one could decide to wait for the arbitration process, leaving the Sharks in a tougher spot with the expansion draft coming in just over a month.

At defense, even if the Sharks decided to leave Burns exposed instead, he fills the requirement as well.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Columbus Blue Jackets Re-Sign Kevin Stenlund

June 17, 2021 at 12:07 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee Leave a Comment

The Columbus Blue Jackets have avoided arbitration with one of their restricted free agents and dealt with an expansion draft issue at the same time. The team has re-signed Kevin Stenlund to a one-year, one-way contract worth $1.05MM. The Blue Jackets can now leave him exposed to the Seattle Kraken to fill one of their forward requirements.

Stenlund, 24, played 32 games for the Blue Jackets this season, scoring five goals and ten points while averaging just 12:32 of ice time. The 2015 second-round pick does have the size that teams covet down the middle which could make him a candidate for the expansion draft, but getting him signed now allows Columbus to make sure their more valuable forwards are protected.

The deal, which gives Stenlund a raise of almost $200K over the qualifying offer he agreed to last season, also likely secures him a spot on the NHL roster for 2021-22. The team could potentially bury it in the minor leagues to clear the cap hit, but Columbus isn’t really in a situation to pay minor league talent more than $1MM. More likely he’ll serve in a bottom-six role next year if he’s still with the Blue Jackets, giving them another option at center as they try to figure out how to add depth at that position.

Stenlund will likely join Eric Robinson, Dean Kukan and Matiss Kivlenieks as the four players that fill the exposure requirements for the Blue Jackets. That doesn’t mean Seattle needs to pick one of them, but Columbus is in a rather strong position this time around—remember, GM Jarmo Kekalainen gave up a first-round pick in the Vegas draft to protect certain players, only to watch William Karlsson score 43 goals in his first year with the Golden Knights. Columbus is much better prepared this time and actually has three first-round picks that teams are “hungry” for as they make their own expansion draft plans.

Expansion Primer: Vancouver Canucks

June 13, 2021 at 3:47 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 3 Comments

When the Vegas Golden Knights entered the NHL in 2017, it was unclear who might become the expansion team’s biggest rival. Las Vegas was located close to a number of Pacific Division foes, but with deep-seated rivalries already in place in Southern California, it was unclear if there would be room for the Knight. The Seattle Kraken don’t have that problem. The Vancouver Canucks, located on the same body of water less than 150 miles north, will be immediate geographical rivals of the NHL’s newest team. While Seattle may not be as competitive right off the bat as Vegas – opposing teams learned their lesson in the last Expansion Draft – an attainable goal for the club in their inaugural season could be to get the best of the rival Canucks in the season series and the division standings. The rivalry could get off to a hot start if the Kraken can steal a player of value out of Vancouver in next month’s draft.

The problem? Just as they did in the last Expansion Draft, in which they lost stay-at-home defenseman Luca Sbisa, the Canucks have again set themselves up well to protect their key players from exposure. Seattle will have a number of options, but it is hard to picture any of them swaying the tide in the new rivalry.

Key Decisions

The Canucks really only have decisions to make at one position: forward. In goal, last summer’s free agent addition Holby was expected to be a player that Seattle might pursue, but after a poor season the 31-year-old not longer looks like an attractive option. Vancouver will protect the younger and superior Demko and won’t put any effort into a side deal to protect Holtby. No other goalies are eligible for selection. On the blue line, only five non-UFA defenseman are eligible for selection and Bowey was acquired specifically to meet the exposure requirement on defense. Barring a trade addition, the Canucks face the easy choice of protecting top-four defensemen Myers and Schmidt and choosing the younger, more experienced, and more highly-regarded young player in Juolevi over Brisebois. Even if any of their impending UFA defenders were re-signed, including veterans Edler and Hamonic, it is unlikely to change the protection plan on the back end. Signed or not, the Kraken selecting and extending career Canuck Edler would be a fun start to the rivalry albeit an unlikely result.

Up front, things are not so simple. The Canucks have a whopping 18 eligible non-UFA forwards and it is a mix of both NHL contributors and promising prospects. The locks are core forwards Horvat, Boeser, Pettersson, Miller and the recently-extended Pearson, leaving two spots available for the remaining 13 forwards. From there, it may be easier to begin with who won’t be protected. Veterans Ferland (injury), Beagle (injury), and Eriksson (overpaid and ineffective) will be exposed. Roussel is also very likely to fall into that group after consecutive seasons of poor play and injury concern. Prospects playing overseas in Jasek and Palmu also have no chance at protection. MacEwen, if only by process of elimination, is also unlikely to be protected as a one-dimensional checking forward.

What is left is a group of six bubble forwards, all with a case for why he should be protected. Despite a disastrous 2020-21 season, the best NHL resume of the bunch belongs to Virtanen Even with just five points in 38 games this year, the 2014 sixth overall pick has 100 points in 317 games, outpacing his fellow bubble candidates. The Canucks shopped the struggling Virtanen this year, but also refused to give him away for less than what they felt he was worth. If that sentiment remains, the team will not allow Seattle to get him for nothing.

With that said, Virtanen’s $2.55MM cap hit is also the heaviest of the bunch and was a roadblock in trade dealings this year. His ongoing legal troubles are also a serious cause for pause. If Vancouver feels that the Kraken will not select Virtanen based on these issues on top of his poor production this year, they could expose him. That idea becomes more likely when considering that three other, more affordable forwards outscored Virtanen on a per-game basis this year: Motte, Hawryluk, and Highmore. All three have a strong case for protection too. Motte, 26, when healthy last season, saw a major uptick in ice time to near top-six levels. A talented defensive forward involved in the checking game and serving on the top penalty kill unit, Motte has proved himself valuable to the Canucks and his timely offense in last year’s postseason helped to make him a fan favorite. However, with Motte out of the lineup down the stretch, it was Highmore who took on a similar role and thrived following a trade from the Chicago Blackhawks. Recording five points in 18 games and taking on some short-handed responsibility, Highmore, 25, looked at home in a bottom-six role with Vancouver. His ease of transition to a new team could peak the interest of Seattle. Hawryluk, 25, surprisingly has the second-best career offensive profile within the bubble, with 27 points in 98 games despite playing for three different teams over three years. Underutilized by the Canucks this year, Hawryluk showed promising flashes with more opportunity late in the year.

The two names remaining are prospects Gadjovich and Lind. Both 2017 second-round picks, Gadjovich and Lind are each high-scoring junior products who have improved every year in the pros and were point-per-game players in the AHL this year, as well as seeing their first NHL action. Both should see increased roles next year with the Canucks, potentially ahead of any of the aforementioned bubble forwards. The upside is certainly greater for either scoring winger than any of the group outside of possibly a resurgent Virtanen. If Seattle was to select either one, they would not be selecting “prospects”. Both will lose their waiver exemption next season. If the Kraken want to take and keep Gadjovich or Lind, they would need to be prepared to hand them a roster spot, as neither would be likely to clear waivers. This calculus would of course change if the Kraken plant to select then trade one of the promising young players.

One mitigating factor to the selection of Lind, as well as Hawryluk, is that they are unsigned restricted free agents. Seattle must select 20 players under contract in 2021-22. With just ten slots to use on both unrestricted and restricted free agents, the team may not feel that Lind or Hawryluk are worthy of a spot. Vancouver could extend Hawryluk to make him a more attractive selection and possible convince Seattle to take him over another more valuable forward. They will not do the same with the coveted Lind.

Projected Protection List

F Brock Boeser
F Jonah Gadjovich
F Bo Horvat
F J.T. Miller
F Tyler Motte
F Tanner Pearson
F Elias Pettersson

D Olli Juolevi
D Tyler Myers
D Nate Schmidt

G Thatcher Demko

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined. Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019-20 and 2020-21 combined. In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (6): Jay Beagle, Loui Eriksson, Matthew Highmore, Zack MacEwen, Antoine Roussel, Jake Virtanen
Defensemen (1): Madison Bowey

With several top young players and near future contributors exempt and all core players protected, the list of options for Seattle is not strong. Vancouver does not appear to be a team that offers any UFA’s worth selecting, so the team will still lose a current roster player. However, they stand almost no chance of losing a player of any great meaning. The greatest impact would perhaps be if the Kraken went with the surprise selection of Holtby, as it would force the Canucks to find a new backup this off-season. However, this season provided little evidence that Holtby would be a worthwhile pick, especially at his current cost. There are no defenseman of value to Vancouver available and it hard to envision Seattle going in that direction anyway.

So again, it all comes back to forward. With Vancouver opting to protect defensive ace Motte and budding power forward Gadjovich with their final two protection slots, the Kraken will be looking at the other four bubble forwards and MacEwen, as barring trade incentive from the Canucks they will not touch any of the overpriced veterans. Virtanen and Lind have the highest upsides, but each come with concerns. Virtanen is expensive, has off-ice baggage, and is coming off a poor season. If selected, he likely has no trade value as the Canucks were unable to deal him themselves this year. Lind would have to be selected with the intention of being a key, everyday starter. He would not clear waivers and would require a roster spot and would take up a valuable unsigned draft slot if selected. Lind is still a very viable option in this scenario, especially if the Kraken are high on him, as his junior and minor league production shows NHL potential and he would have trade value to other teams if he cannot crack the Seattle roster. If either of these two are selected and blossom with the Canucks new rivals, it will sting.

If the issues surrounding potential top-nine forwards Virtanen and Lind are too much for the Kraken, they will likely look for a dependable fourth-liner in Highmore or MacEwen rather than a depth option in Hawryluk, who is also unsigned. In fact, Highmore’s recent success jumping from Chicago to Vancouver and thriving in a bottom-six role could inspire the Kraken. If they don’t love Lind and don’t want to risk Virtanen, then Highmore is the likely choice.

West Notes: Expansion, Nosek, Menell, Leach

June 12, 2021 at 2:53 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 6 Comments

Typically, the only teams that can sign a player to a max-term eight-year contract is the one they’re currently on. However, Seattle will be able to change that. As Pierre LeBrun notes in his latest piece for The Athletic (subscription link), the NHLPA negotiated a “no loss of status or rights’’ provision in the latest CBA which means that a pending free agent selected by the Kraken could still receive an eight-year deal as long as the contract is signed before free agency opens up on July 28th.

Seattle will have a 72-hour exclusive negotiating window with any free agents that are left unprotected by their current teams in advance of next month’s expansion draft. If they reach an agreement with one of those players, that player automatically becomes the selection from the team that originally had them.

Elsewhere in the West:

Golden Knights center Tomas Nosek is getting closer to returning to the lineup, GM Kelly McCrimmon told reporters, including Ben Gotz of The Athletic (Twitter link). The veteran has missed the last 11 games since leaving their second contest against Minnesota back in the first round with an unspecified injury. Nosek has been an important depth player for Vegas since joining them in expansion and surprisingly had a career year offensively this season with 18 points in just 38 games.
Wild defensive prospect Brennan Menell surprisingly signed in the KHL for this past season but the move worked out as he was one of the top scoring defensemen in that league with 38 points. As Michael Russo of The Athletic suggests (subscription link), that could put him in a spot to push for a one-way contract at the league minimum of $750K to come back to North America. Russo notes that Menell’s representatives reached out last month to start talks for a contract for next season but GM Bill Guerin wanted to wait until their playoffs finished first. If he does return, he’d need to play in 75 NHL games next season to avoid reaching Group VI unrestricted free agency.
The Coyotes have interviewed Providence head coach Jay Leach for their vacant head coaching position, reports Craig Morgan of AZ Coyotes Insider (Twitter link). The 41-year-old has spent the past six seasons in the AHL including the past four as head coach of Boston’s affiliate. Leach also played in 70 career NHL games over a 13-year professional career.

Penguins Notes: Goaltending, Jarry, DeSmith, Malkin

June 11, 2021 at 7:55 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 13 Comments

The Penguins’ new brain trust threw their support behind goaltender Tristan Jarry after his struggles led to another early exit for the team this postseason. At least publicly, the team claimed that they still believed in the 25-year-old as their starter. In fact, they went so far as to say that adding size and physicality was their only objective this off-season. Behind closed doors, the conversation seems to have gone differently. Dan Kingerski of Pittsburgh Hockey Now reports that multiple sources close to the team confirm that the Penguins aim to add a veteran goaltender on the trade or free agent market this summer. While Kingerski calls the focus an “experienced backup”, in all likelihood that means they are looking for someone with starting experience to play 1B to Jarry’s 1A and take over if he again has issues. Frederik Andersen is a name that has already been linked to the Penguins, while other UFA options include Jonathan Bernier, James Reimer, Antti Raanta, Jaroslav Halak or Devan Dubnyk. Younger names like Linus Ullmark or Chris Driedger could really push Jarry if brought in. Trade options are numerous and the Expansion Draft will likely shake up the market, but Anton Khudobin stands out as an ideal fit for what the Penguins are looking for.

Again, this means that Casey DeSmith is the odd man out – and not just on the depth chart. Kingerski put to rest any speculation to the contrary by stating definitively that Jarry will be protected by the Penguins in the impending Expansion Draft. That will leave DeSmith, 29, up for grabs for the Seattle Kraken, though the team will likely have better options elsewhere on the Pittsburgh roster. Nevertheless, DeSmith’s time with the Penguins could be running out. After outplaying Jarry in everything but games played this season, DeSmith has proven himself to be a solid backup in his own right. Injury prone and unaccustomed to a starter’s workload at the NHL level, teams may not be clamoring to acquire DeSmith, but he also is unlikely to clear waivers if the Penguins add another goalie.
Another player that Kingerski confirms for the Penguins’ protection list in next month’s Expansion Draft: Evgeni Malkin. No, its not exactly a revelation. Not only is Malkin one of the faces of the franchise, but his contract also carries a No-Movement Clause, requiring him to be protected. Malkin could waive his NMC, but the team will not ask him to do that. That may seem like common sense, but after a down year by his standards, advancing age, an expensive contract, a serious injury that could carry over into the season, and very poor Expansion Draft outlook for their deep roster, the Penguins have plenty of reason to at least consider exposing Malkin. However, Kingerski adds that it probably would be a useless request anyway. As as has been the book on Malkin throughout his whole career, he would only leave Pittsburgh if he was traded to a Florida team, where he makes his home in the off-season. Seattle is on the other side of the continent.

Teams “Hungry” For Blue Jackets’ First-Round Picks

June 11, 2021 at 4:17 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 9 Comments

The Columbus Blue Jackets decided they were in need of a reset this season and decided to sell off their expiring assets. Rentals David Savard and Nick Foligno both brought back first-round picks (and more) through some savvy cap manipulation, while injured Riley Nash even landed them a sixth. Now, as the draft approaches and Columbus sit with three first-round selections, teams around the league are showing interest. At today’s press conference introducing new head coach Brad Larsen, Blue Jackets GM Jarmo Kekalainen spoke about the upcoming offseason:

As a management staff we’re going to have a busy summer. We have draft meetings coming up soon. We have three first-round picks, nine picks altogether that we can do a lot of different things with. I’ve already talked to several of the general managers in the league that have protection problems in the expansion draft, and they’re eyeing those picks like–they’re very hungry for our first-round picks I can tell you that. We could do a lot of things with them, if we think it makes sense for us now and into the future. We’re not going to trade them for a 35-year-old player that can help us next season, no matter how good that player would be.

The Blue Jackets’ own pick will be fifth overall, while the one they acquired from the Toronto Maple Leafs will be 25th (though it will be the 24th player selected since Arizona forfeited their first-round pick this season for scouting violations). The one they received from the Tampa Bay Lightning could be anywhere from 29-32 depending on how far they go from here.

It’s hard to know exactly why teams that face issues in the expansion draft would be after the Blue Jackets’ picks, but part of it could simply be because they will have to give their own up to the Seattle Kraken in order to protect extra players. That situation should be familiar to Kekalainen, given he traded a first (and a second) to the Vegas Golden Knights in 2017 along with David Clarkson’s contract to protect Josh Anderson, Joonas Korpisalo, and Jack Johnson. The Golden Knights eventually picked William Karlsson from the Blue Jackets, who scored 43 goals in his first season in Vegas.

Not only will Kekalainen have learned from that mistake, but he also should have a good grasp on the desperation that will face some of the other managers around the league as the draft approaches. For instance, if a team believes a player is ripe for selection by Seattle and doesn’t want to lose them for nothing, why not flip them to the Blue Jackets for a relatively high pick instead? Columbus has some extra space to protect incoming players, especially if they were to move the likes of Seth Jones or Patrik Laine in the coming weeks.

One of the interesting questions when it comes to first-round picks this season however is how teams feel about the incoming draft class. Many of the players that will be selected this year haven’t been scouted in person since early 2020, with many others not even getting much game experience in the year since. How that will affect the value of a late-first is still to be determined, but Columbus and Kekalainen could be a test case to watch over the next little while.

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