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Expansion Primer: Arizona Coyotes

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

After going to the playoffs three consecutive years from 2010-12 the Arizona Coyotes have taken a sharp downturn in recent years, culminating in another disappointing season in 2016-17. They finished in 28th place with just 70 points, and unfortunately dropped all the way to seventh in the upcoming draft. Since most of their impressive assets are still very young, the team shouldn’t have much trouble protecting their future in the upcoming expansion draft. They do however have some interesting names that may be taken.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Jamie McGinn, Tobias Rieder, Brad Richardson, Josh Jooris, Mitchell Moroz, Tyler Gaudet, Peter Holland, Brandan Troock, Jeremy Morin, Jordan Martinook, Alexander Burmistrov, Anthony Duclair, Teemu Pulkkinen

Defensemen:

Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Alex Goligoski (NMC), Connor Murphy, Luke Schenn, Kevin Connauton

Goaltenders:

Mike Smith, Louis Domingue

Notable Exemptions

Clayton Keller, Dylan Strome, Max Domi, Christian Dvorak, Lawson Crouse, Christian Fischer, Jakob Chychrun, Anthony DeAngelo, Brendan Perlini, Nick Merkley

Key Decisions

Like the Colorado Avalanche who we profiled yesterday, the Coyotes have more than enough protection slots to go around up front. Unlike the Avalanche though, who have a tough situation on defense the Coyotes will more than likely use the 7-3-1 method, allowing them to protect all of their valuable contracts.

Up front, the Coyotes amazingly have just three players signed for next season who are eligible to be taken, though several other restricted free agents will warrant protection. With seven slots, they actually have enough to even acquire another player or two without putting anything of true value at risk. Holland, Martinook, and Jooris all have shown various levels of upside in their NHL time, while others like Pulkkinen have performed well at the AHL level.

Because of the extremely few veterans signed for next season, the Coyotes actually still have some work to do. Each team needs to expose at least two forwards who are under contract for 2017-18 and played in at least 40 games this season of 70 the past two. McGinn, Rieder and Richardson are the only three who are signed, meaning another player will need a contract before the draft happens. Jooris is the most likely for this, as he doesn’t project as one of their current protected forwards but does fill the requirement. "<strong

On defense the biggest loss would likely be Schenn, the former fifth-overall pick who is now on his fourth organization without ever living up to the shut-down billing he had coming out of the WHL. If the team was worried that Vegas might take him—and there is definitely a chance the team would, seeing as he is a cheap 27-year old with more than 600 games under his belt already—and they really didn’t want that, they could go with the eight skaters method and protect four defensemen, though it seems very unlikely.

In net, Smith is a near-lock to be protected after the team refused to discuss him at the deadline despite his excellent season. GM John Chayka had this to say at the time:

We’re trying to grow, and he’s a key cog of that growth for us. Wayne Gretzky was traded.  At the same time, [Smith’s] an important piece for our organization. There’s no discussion on him.

That does make Domingue an interesting option for Vegas, as the former fifth-round pick has turned in two solid seasons in part-time duty. While he doesn’t have the same immediate upside of Antti Raanta or Philipp Grubauer (two goaltenders who may also be exposed), Domingue is only 25 and costs just over $1MM for next season.

"<strongIt’s important to note that Dave Bolland, Craig Cunningham and Chris Pronger, all of whom are technically still on the Arizona payroll are exempt from the draft due to their career-ending injuries. Pronger has in fact already been inducted to the Hall of Fame, and currently works for the Department of Player Safety. Pavel Datsyuk, whose rights were acquired at the draft last year is also on the books and has a no-movement clause, but will not need protection because of his expiring cap-hit and status as a retired player.

Vegas will have a chance to speak to the pending free agents for the Coyotes like any other team, and there is the possibility they could go after Radim Vrbata instead of any exposed player. Vrbata had a solid season in the desert, leading the Coyotes with 55 points. At 35 he’s clearly past his prime, but for a team that will severely lack scoring ability he may be an interesting option. Shane Doan is also a free agent as of this moment, but it seems unlikely that he would go to Vegas for the end of his career—if it’s not over already—after making it clear he only wanted a trade to a potential Stanley Cup contender at the deadline.

Projected Protection List

F Jamie McGinn
F Tobias Rieder
F Peter Holland
F Jordan Martinook
F Alexander Burmistrov
F Anthony Duclair
F Teemu Pulkkinen

D Alex Goligoski (NMC)
D Oliver Ekman-Larsson
D Connor Murphy

G Mike Smith

In all, the Coyotes sit in outstanding shape going into the expansion draft without much to lose. Since all of their highly-touted assets are still too young to be eligible, they’ve actually put themselves in a situation to acquire a player or two before the draft from a team in a worse situation.

Though they aren’t likely to compete next season, they could easily add young players to their core this summer to make their team substantially better. Like the acquisition of Crouse last summer in exchange for Bolland’s contract, or the draft-finagling to move up and get Chychrun, Chayka and the Coyotes front office is headed in the right direction. It would be surprising to not see them take advantage of their protection slots and ample cap space again over the next few weeks.

While this list reflects the roster as it is today, it could clearly change as the team makes the decision on who to extend or a deal to bring someone in. As it sits, Schenn or Domingue look like the toughest losses, which won’t really inspire much excitement among Golden Knights fans.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Expansion Primer: Colorado Avalanche

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

The Colorado Avalanche finished the 2016-17 with one of the worst records in recent memory, winning just 22 games and seeing just a single player reach the 20-goal mark. As if their year could get any worse, they fell three spots in the draft lottery and will be required like everyone else to give up a player to the incoming Vegas Golden Knights.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Nathan MacKinnon, Matt Duchene, Gabriel Landeskog, Carl Soderberg, Joe Colborne, Blake Comeau, Troy Bourke, Mikhail Grigorenko, Samuel Henley, Sven Andrighetto, Matthew Nieto, Rocco Grimaldi, Felix Girard, Mike Sislo, Turner Elson

Defensemen:

Erik Johnson (NMC), Tyson Barrie, Francois Beauchemin (NMC), Mark Barberio, Eric Gelinas, Duncan Siemens, Patrick Wiercioch, Nikita Zadorov

Goaltenders:

Semyon Varlamov, Calvin Pickard

Notable Exemptions

J.T. Compher, Mikko Rantanen, Tyson Jost, A.J. Greer, Andrei Mironov, Chris Bigras

Key Decisions

The Avalanche are in an enviable position when it comes to forwards, where many of their core pieces are still exempt due to the rebuilding nature of the club. It’s not so rosy on defence though, as both Johnson and Beauchemin hold no-movement clauses and thus require protection. Should the team be able to convince one of them—namely Beauchemin, since Johnson still at least represents some trade value—to waive their clause, they could use the 7-3-1 protection format. Otherwise they’ll likely have to go with the eight skater route or risk losing one of Zadorov or Barrie.

That would leave them with just four slots up front which isn’t ideal, but at least could protect the future and biggest trade pieces. That is assuming they don’t move Duchene or Landeskog before the draft, which would open up another spot for a younger player like Grimaldi or Andrighetto. Another option would be a buyout once the first window opens on June 15th, though Beauchemin—the most likely recipient—signed his latest contract after he turned 35 and thus the Avalanche would incur the whole $4.5MM cap hit next season regardless. Calvin Pickard

In net there sits the team’s most important decision. Whether or not to protect Varlamov or Pickard has been much debated, with reports coming out previously that the team will keep the former. After two solid seasons backing up, Pickard struggled at times in the increased role this year when Varlamov went down to injury. That’s not to say the young goaltender doesn’t have a bright future as he recently showed, backstopping Team Canada to a silver medal in the recent World Championships. He was given player of the game honors for Canada in their 2-1 shootout loss to Team Sweden in the gold medal game, and recorded a .938 save percentage in the tournament.

From each team, Vegas is also given the opportunity to talk to pending free agents before the draft. If they should come to an agreement with one, they would forfeit their selection from his former team. The Avalanche don’t really have any UFA targets that would be of much interest, though perhaps 25-year old Brendan Ranford provides some. The Group VI free agent has only played a single game in the NHL, but has proven to be a successful AHL scorer. If for some reason the Golden Knights believe they won’t be able to sign him—or any of the Avalanche UFAs—after July 1st, they could forego their selection entirely.

Projected Protection List

F Nathan MacKinnon
F Matt Duchene
F Gabriel Landeskog
F Mikhail Grigorenko

D Erik Johnson (NMC)
D Francois Beauchemin (NMC)
D Tyson Barrie
D Nikita Zadorov

G Semyon Varlamov

While Colorado is one of the most likely teams to make a move before the deadline, this is how the protection list currently projects for them. The Avalanche could also make a deal with the Golden Knights to take a player like Soderberg off their hands, who suffered an inexplicable drop-off in effectiveness this season. With three more seasons on his current contract, his $4.75MM cap hit is certainly one the Avalanche would love to rid themselves of as they continue their rebuild.

In all, Pickard looks like the worst loss the Avalanche could incur at this point and with several weeks still before the draft they may be able to solve that issue. The Golden Knights should have their fair share of goaltenders available to them, many of which they may feel more comfortable drafting. The Avalanche will continue to look forward with their group of “untouchables” which includes MacKinnon, Rantanen and Jost, each of whom are at no risk of being selected.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Metro Division Snapshots: Capitals, Darling, McLeod

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Big changes are expected this summer in D.C. after the Washington Capitals once again failed to advance beyond the second round of the postseason, despite boasting perhaps the most talented roster ever assembled in the organization’s 42-year history. Even if GM Brian MacLellan wanted to return the roster mostly intact, he would have a difficult time doing so given the team’s salary cap situation. It’s along this vein that Isabelle Khurshudyan of the Washington Post examines potential free agent and trade fits to replace the players the Capitals may lose off their President’s Trophy winning roster.

T.J. Oshie, coming off a career high 33-goal season, will be a UFA this summer and while the Capitals would like to re-sign the winger, doing so may prove hard to do, according to Khurshudyan. The scribe writes that Oshie is due for a significant raise on his $4.5MM 2016-17 cap charge, and suggests a long-term deal in the $6MM annual range is reasonable. Khurshudyan notes that both Kyle Okposo and David Backes, two players with similar profiles and historical production to Oshie, inked free agent deals with cap hits of $6MM last summer. If that should prove to be too rich for MacLellan’s blood, the team could pivot back to Justin Williams, who is coming off a two-year deal with the Capitals worth $3.25MM per year. Andre Burakovsky, a RFA, is expected to graduate to a full-time top-six role and the duo of Williams and Burakovsky could be good enough for Washington to get by. In terms of outside free agents Khurshudyan lists Drew Stafford and Patrick Eaves as potentially inexpensive fits, though at 31 and 33 respectively, each is on the back-half of their careers and would represent a risky proposition. As it is, Stafford netted just eight goals in 58 games in 2016-17. Eaves notched a career high 32 goals, besting his previous best by 12 and suggesting heavy regression is likely.

On the blue line, both Karl Alzner and trade deadline pickup Kevin Shattenkirk will head to free agency. Khurshudyan expects both to depart for greener pastures and speculates that Nate Schmidt will likely assume a role next to John Carlson on the team’s top pair next season. That leaves a hole on the third pairing with Brooks Orpik. Internal candidates, according to the scribe, include Taylor Chorney along with prospects Madison Bowey and Christian Djoos. The free agent market is thin at the position, though veteran defender Johnny Oduya could represent one option, according to the author.

On the trade front, Khurshudyan mentions recent reports that Minnesota would be willing to listen to offers for RW Nino Niederreiter, a pending RFA. Coming off a 25-goal season with the Wild, Niederreiter would certainly command a sizable return in any trade, but he would satisfy Washington’s need for a top-six forward and is young enough to fill that role for years to come. Additionally, given the restrictive nature of the expansion draft rules, both the Wild and Anaheim may have to leave a talented young blue liner exposed and could elect to make a trade to secure some value in return. While that may provide Washington with another means with which to add a needed defenseman, many teams in the league will be shopping in the same market and likely have more to offer in return than the Capitals.

Elsewhere in the Metro Division:

  • Scott Darling’s move to Carolina, where it is expected he will be given every chance to be the team’s #1 goalie, is viewed as the 28-year-old netminder’s biggest opportunity at the professional level. For his part, however, Darling sees it as just the next step in a pro career chock full of opportunities, writes Luke DeCock of The News & Observer. As DeCock notes, Darling has already overcome a drinking problem which nearly sunk his career before it ever even got started, and has worked his way up the pro ranks all the way from the SPHL up to where he is today; the presumptive starter for a young Carolina team hoping to contend for a playoff spot next season. It’s been a lengthy process for Darling but his approach finally appears to be paying off. “It’s kind of been my thing to just saw the wood in front of you, and just keep working toward the next step.” The “wood” in front of him is the high expectations that he will have to shoulder as the new #1 goalie for a team whose recent chances to compete in the postseason have been derailed by poor to mediocre play between the pipes. But given his history, Darling appears well-suited for the challenges that await in Carolina.
  • The New Jersey Devils have high expectations for their 2016 first round draft selection, center Michael McLeod, a skilled offensive talent who starred for Mississauga of the OHL. Chris Ryan of NJ Advance Media spoke with Paul Castron, the team’s Director of Amateur Scouting, about McLeod’s progress one year after the team made the 6-foot-2, 194-pound pivot the 12th overall pick in the draft. After impressing team brass at the Devils developmental and training camps last summer, McLeod struggled during the first couple of months of the OHL season, writes Ryan, though Castron is still high on the prospect: “He’s one of those players where he never lets you down with his work ethic and his speed game is always there, he’s always a factor. I think he was just frustrated early in the season for not producing at a higher rate. The team as a whole really struggled, and I think he felt a lot of pressure because he was captain, too, and he was their leader.”  McLeod would get his game going in the second half of the season, notes Ryan, amassing 46 points over his final 31 contests and leading his team to the OHL Final, recording an impressive 27 points in 20 postseason games along the way. With New Jersey in the midst of an all out rebuild, one buoyed by winning the rights to the first overall choice in the 2017 draft in the NHL’s recent lottery, McLeod’s development will be important to the future success of the organization. It’s possible given the team’s dearth of offensive talent that McLeod could open the year in New Jersey with a strong training camp performance.

 

Golden Knights Notes: Expansion Draft Targets, Gallant, Yakupov

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The NHL purposefully designed the rules regarding the expansion draft to give the league’s newest member the best possible chance to compete right away. Teams have two options in terms of whom to protect from their current roster: they can either choose to protect seven forwards, three defensemen and a goalie or they can go the alternate route of eight skaters and one goalie. Any player with two seasons or less of experience playing professional hockey in North America are exempt. Undoubtedly, many teams will confront some tough choices when it comes to whom they potentially lose to the Golden Knights later next month.

Rob Vollman, writing for ESPN.com, examines who among the four Stanley Cup semi-finalists Vegas GM George McPhee is most likely going to garner significant interest from the veteran hockey executive. From the reigning champion Penguins, Vollman suggests that unless the club can convince Marc-Andre Fleury to waive his NMC and subsequently trade him to another club looking for a #1 between the pipes, one of Pittsburgh’s goaltenders would be the best choice for McPhee and the Golden Knights. However, should the Penguins proactively move one of their ’tenders – almost assuredly Fleury – prior to the expansion draft, Vollman suggests blue liner Brian Dumoulin as the best choice given his penalty killing prowess and ability to play solid defensively.

According to the scribe, Anaheim, barring some shifty maneuvering, may risk losing Josh Manson or Jakob Silfverberg to their new division rivals. Manson, as a right-hand defenseman who can move the puck and plays with bite, would be an excellent addition for Vegas.

Because of their defensive depth, Nashville will likely choose to protect eight skaters, with four being blue liners. This means the Golden Knights will probably have their pick from a group which includes forwards Calle Jarnkrok, Craig Smith and Colin Wilson. Ultimately, Vollman thinks Jarnkrok would be the sensible choice given his affordable cap hit ($2MM annually through 2021-22) and his strong two-way play.

Given the lack of proven goal scorers likely to be available to McPhee in the expansion draft, Vollman wonders whether Vegas could be convinced to take the onerous contract of Bobby Ryan off of Ottawa’s hands. Ryan, who has five years – at which point the winger will be 35 – and an annual cap charge of $7.25MM, has struggled since joining Ottawa four years ago and finished with just 13 goals in 62 contests this past season. However, he has played better in the playoffs recording five markers and 14 points in 16 games. Vollman doubts McPhee would take that hefty contract on without the Senators offering them further incentive to do so but also notes the $7.25MM price tag would make it much easier to reach their targeted floor of $43.8MM in salaries. And at 30, there is hope Ryan can provide at least a few seasons of solid offensive production for a club who will likely struggle to put the puck in the net.

In other Golden Knights news:

  • The Golden Knights have done well in hiring veteran coach Gerard Gallant to be the franchise’s first bench boss, at least if some of his former charges and current contemporaries are correct. NHL.com’s Brian Hedger penned an article on Gallant, who is currently an assistant with Canada’s entry in the 2017 IIHF World Championship, which included quotes from Michael Matheson and Nick Bjugstad, who each played for Gallant in Florida. Matheson, a young defenseman who rejoined Gallant on Team Canada for this tournament, said: “He’s a tremendous coach and I loved my time with him. He just gives his players a lot of confidence. He realizes that you’re going to make mistakes but that it’s not the end of the world. He’s just going to put you back onto the ice because he has confidence in you.” For his part, Bjugstad said: “He’s one of my favorite coaches ever,” and indicated he was well-liked in the room in Florida. “Everyone respected him. He had a young team with us, and it didn’t take him long to kind of push us to that next level, the next step. There’s no reason he can’t do it with the next team.” Tampa Bay head coach Jon Cooper also offered up strong praise for Gallant: “I think it’s a great get for Las Vegas. I got to meet Gerard at the [World Cup of Hockey 2016], and that’s a big reason he’s here with us today. He’s extremely knowledgeable about the game, the guys play hard for him and I think he’ll do a [great] job in Vegas.” Gallant’s ability to help develop young players and earn the respect from his charges should do him well in his new position. While the Golden Knights will have access to quality NHL talent via the expansion draft, the organization will still likely rely on building with youth through the draft and it may be a few seasons before they are ready to compete regularly for the postseason.
  • With the probable lack of proven goal scorers available to Vegas in the expansion draft, the club will likely look for other ways to add offensive talent to the organization. The Golden Knights have already inked free agent center Vadim Shipachyov, a skilled Russian who was expected to draw significant interest from several NHL clubs this summer. He may well slot in as the team’s #1 center to begin the season. But, as talented as Shipachyov might be, he is more of a playmaker than a goal scorer and Vegas will have to add more talent around their new #1 pivot. Luke Fox of Sportsnet suggests that former top overall draft pick Nail Yakupov is just the sort of player Vegas should take a chance on as they search for impact offensive talent. Yakupov, who suffered through the worst season of his career with St. Louis in 2016-17, scoring just nine points in 40 games, has said he has no desire to return home and play in the KHL. Fox believes the 23-year-old winger is worth a short-term, small money deal for Vegas, or for another team starved for cheap offense, perhaps L.A. Signing Yakupov would certainly make a lot of sense for Vegas. The presence of Shipachyov could help ease Yakupov’s adjustment to the desert and provide the talented winger with the type of setup man that could help him thrive.

Dallas Stars Have Had Discussions On Moving Third-Overall Pick

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According to Sean Shapiro of NHL.com, Dallas Stars GM Jim Nill was speaking on NHL Network radio this morning about the possibility of moving the third-overall pick. Nill admitted to having discussions about it, mostly because of the wide variety of players who could be of interest to teams at #3. While Nolan Patrick and Nico Hischier are widely expected to go 1-2 in some order, there are “about 10 players” who could be selected next.

Gabe Vilardi, Miro Heiskanen, Cale Makar, Cody Glass, Casey Mittelstadt and several others have been rumored to possibly go in that spot, not even counting Timothy Liljegren who has fallen far from his one time #2 ranking in the draft. Teams may need to move up to make sure they get the player they want, and #3 might be the chance to do it.

Dallas could use more NHL talent immediately, and without a consensus could still add a player they really like further down the draft. Should someone offer a player who can help them right away, plus a pick somewhere still in the top-10 they may be swayed to move down.

Nill also spoke about the expansion draft and how the Stars will need to expose a few players they’d rather not. He’s had talks with other teams about those players, hoping to get something for them instead of watching them walk over to the Vegas dressing room. As we discussed yesterday, the Stars have a huge number of young bodies on defense for next season, and won’t be able to protect all of them.

Even if the fan base wouldn’t be heartbroken by a selected Jamie Oleksiak, losing a former first round pick for nothing doesn’t make any sense for the team. With potentially only three protection slots—should the team go with the 7-3-1 method—the Stars won’t be able to keep all of their 25-and-under defensemen. Perhaps making a deal with Vegas, as Nill suggests, is the best way to make sure they pick the one you’d have the easiest time replacing.

Snapshots: Oilers, Flames, Grubauer

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The Edmonton Oilers are preparing for the expansion draft, and GM Peter Chiarelli knows his club will lose a talented player. Speaking with Paul Gazzola of NHL.com, Chiarelli admitted that the selection from the Oilers may be a little more painful than some other teams, especially because of the success the franchise experienced this year.

Edmonton is expected to go with the 7-3-1 protection scheme, and while there is no risk of losing a player like Leon Draisaitl or Adam Larsson, other possibilities like Griffin Reinhart or Mark Letestu remain depending on how much stock the team puts in youth versus experience. With rumors swirling about Jordan Eberle’s potential availability, perhaps a deal would be made before the draft in order to free up a potential protection slot for the forward group.

  • The Flames continue to search for a goaltender and Eric Francis of Postmedia writes about all of their options. In discussing the new deals for Ben Bishop and Scott Darling, Francis lists veterans like Marc-Andre Fleury and Ryan Miller as possibilities to bridge the gap to their young prospects. He also touches on other successful backups like Antti Raanta, who could try to follow the Cam Talbot-path from the shadow of Henrik Lundqvist to the ice in Alberta. In one way or another, the Flames must solve their goaltending issue, as both Brian Elliott and Chad Johnson will be free agents come July 1st. Interestingly, that adds the Flames as a landing spot for a goalie before the expansion draft, as they currently have none to protect.
  • One other name that is mentioned in regards to the Flames is Philipp Grubauer of the Washington Capitals, who Stephen Whyno of the Associated Press also goes in depth on. Grubauer knows that he is a target for the Vegas Golden Knights, and teammate Braden Holtby believes he’s ready to become a starter somewhere in the league. It’s not just Calgary and Vegas who will likely check in on Grubauer though after his performance this season. The 25-year old registered a .926 save percentage in 23 games and should be on the radar of several other teams—Whyno includes Winnipeg, Philadelphia and Colorado as teams possibly looking for an upgrade this summer.

Islanders Notes: de Haan, Buchberger, Kovalchuk

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Though Elliotte Friedman’s latest “30 Thoughts” column is packed full with interesting information, the most eye opening news might have to do with the New York Islanders. Friedman thinks that the Detroit Red Wings may come calling for Calvin de Haan before the expansion draft, after his excellent World Championship tournament.

de Haan is at risk of being exposed in the expansion draft, as the Islanders currently have to protect Johnny Boychuk due to his no-movement clause.  With Nick Leddy, Travis Hamonic, Thomas Hickey and Ryan Pulock all eligible for selection as well, de Haan will have a hard time earning a protection slot. The Islanders also don’t have a ton of money to offer de Haan as he becomes a restricted free agent, because of the negotiations that are coming down the pipe in the summer of 2018 for the Islanders—not only is John Tavares a free agent but Josh Bailey, Brock Nelson, Ryan Strome, Shane Prince and Alan Quine are all due up.

  • Not only will Luke Richardson join the Islanders’ coaching staff, but Kelly Buchberger will as well. Buchberger was an assistant with the Edmonton Oilers between 2008-14, and has been seen recently with Weight watching WHL games. Buchberger and Weight of course were teammates with the Oilers for nearly a decade.
  • Friedman also touches on one of the hottest-button topics in hockey right now, Ilya Kovalchuk’s potential return. He notes that since Kovalchuk seems to want to play for the Rangers, perhaps he could be swayed to play for the other New York team instead. The Islanders do have a pretty enticing spot open riding shotgun with Tavares, but for the same reason listed above would have trouble giving him anything more than a short term deal. Though the Islanders do have some money hitting LTIR when the season starts in Mikhail Grabovski, that $5MM hurts their cap situation during the summer. It’ll take a lot of work to work Kovalchuk into the current salary structure, but if they were to find a way they’d immediately have one of the most dangerous lines in the league.

Vegas Golden Knights Announce Chicago Wolves As AHL Affiliate

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The NHL’s newest team has announced their AHL affiliate for the 2017-18 season.  As expected, the Vegas Golden Knights have signed a multi-year partnership with the Chicago Wolves to work as their affiliate. The club wanted to wait until the Wolves season had finished, as it did on Saturday at the hands of the Grand Rapids Griffins. The Wolves made it back to the playoffs under the leadership of former Philadelphia Flyers head coach Craig Berube. The team has previously been the affiliate of the Atlanta Thrashers and Vancouver Canucks, winning two Calder Cups (2002, 2008) along the way.

Chicago has been the affiliate of the St. Louis Blues since 2013, and despite expectations that the two franchises would share the team this season, it won’t be exactly an even split. The Blues have not extended their agreement, but will “associate with the Vegas Golden Knights and supply players to the Golden Knights’ AHL affiliate next season.” Vegas will have full control of Wolves, including staffing decisions.

The Wolves actually play in Rosemont just outside of Chicago, but remain much closer geographically to the Blues than the Golden Knights. As teams try to get their AHL affiliates closer and closer, the Wolves don’t offer much long-term stability for the expansion franchise. Despite the current multi-year deal, a move to somewhere closer to Vegas seems inevitable down the road. There is no word on where the Blues’ next affiliate will be, but it won’t come until 2018-19 at the earliest.

As of this moment, the Golden Knights don’t have any players ticketed for the AHL as just Reid Duke and Vadim Shipachyov are under contract. That will change soon enough though, as the team selects 30 players in the expansion draft and another crop in the entry draft. Duke is likely to spend this year in the minors, as are several of the young options the team has in the expansion draft.

Potential Buyout Options

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NHL fans are looking ahead to an offseason which will likely see a lot of movement, but will also feature teams tight up against a stagnant cap ceiling. Buyouts are always an option teams will weigh, although certainly an avenue of last resort. Dumping a contract isn’t as simple as taking the player’s salary off the books. They will count as 1/3 or 2/3 of the original cap hit, for twice the remaining years on that contract. So if a 26 year old player has two years remaining at $3 MM, he will cost $1 MM for four years against the team’s cap total. That means a substantial savings of $2 MM, but is a habit GMs will not want to fall into. For players over 26, the 2/3 rule applies, and that same player would count for $2 MM each of the next four seasons. In such a scenario, the savings are rarely worth it. However, teams can be backed into this corner when trade options completely vanish.

For the 2017 offseason, there is an extra component at play – the expansion draft. Players with full No-Movement Clauses must be protected by their team, exposing potentially better, younger, cheaper options to selection by the Vegas Golden Knights. Prior to the expansion draft, on June 15-17th, there will be a buyout window. Consequently, there will most likely be at least one case where a player who otherwise would not have been bought out will be due to a team’s long-term prospects. This certainly isn’t what the NHLPA had hoped for when they agreed to another 20+ players in the league with the expansion of Vegas, but is an unfortunate unforeseen consequence. Here are just some of the players who could be facing the buyout option this summer:

 

Antti Niemi – Dallas Stars

Both Niemi and fellow goalie Kari Lehtonen should be expecting this fate. With Ben Bishop signing a massive six-year contract with Dallas, their time as starters in this league look all but complete. Both are paid an asburd amount of money, but Niemi’s $4.5 MM is the more unpalatable total. His .892 save percentage through 37 games this year was only edged in ineptitude by Michal Neuvirth among tenders who got more than 15 starts. At his pricetag he is virtually unmoveable, and with only one year remaining on his contract, the hit would be worth it for 2 seasons to keep him away from the team.

Kevin Bieksa – Anaheim Ducks

Bieksa might seem an odd inclusion on this list, considering his age, but it should be remembered that he has a No-Movement Clause, meaning he would need to be protected by the Ducks. Needing to also protect Sami Vatanen, Cam Fowler, and Hampus Lindholm, even under the 8 player protection model, this would likely expose Josh Manson. Considering his play in this post-season, and Bieksa’s complete inability to remain healthy, this is a darkhorse candidate for a last-minute buyout. Bieksa’s Corsi is the worst on the backend for his team and his skating has looked quite problematic of late. The flare of his Vancouver days seems long past and with only one year remaining at $4 MM, he seems an easy target to eliminate.

Scott Hartnell – Columbus Blue Jackets

Hartnell is considered a gutsy character player, a net-front presence, and a veteran leader. However, he has seen his production shift from being that of a decent offensive threat (28 G, 32 A in 2014-15) to an average third liner (13 goals, 24 A in 2016-17). His problems run deeper, though, as his brand of physical hockey has taken its toll on his play. No longer quite the intimidating wrecking-ball of his Philadelphia days, Hartnell is not as effective on the forecheck as he once was. The reason he is included on this list, however, is because Columbus has a lot of young, promising players they will wish to protect in the expansion draft, and Hartnell has a No-Movement Clause. At 34 years old and in a quickly diminishing role, it will be difficult for GM Jarmo Kekalainen to save a space for Hartnell. With toughness adequately filled by hard-nosed forwards in Brandon Dubinsky, Boone Jenner, Nick Foligno, and Brandon Saad, he seems even more superfluous. Assuming Dubinsky (NMC), Brandon Saad, Jenner, Foligno (NMC), Cam Atkinson, and Matt Calvert are protected, Hartnell’s inclusion would sacrifice the 24 year-old William Karlsson. That’s a difficult concession for the Jackets to make, even if the youngster took a step back offensively this season. If they would opt to buy out Hartnell’s contract at $4.75 MM, it would mean $3.16 MM in dead space for 4 more seasons, a hefty pill to swallow.

 
There are certain to be other candidates for buyouts as well, but these are three that could easily find themselves looking for a new contract come June 18th.

Finding Room For Oshie And Alzner

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T.J. Oshie has pretty clearly expressed his desire to remain in Washington, culminating in his most recent statement this Friday where he stated “I’m a Capital, and I feel that’s where I’ll be.” The difficulty for GM Brian McClellan obviously lies in fitting him under the team’s cap ceiling while affording other free agents, notably including RFA Evgeny Kuznetsov. Looking forward to next season, and barring any major trades, the Capitals will likely need to let go of the clutch Justin Williams in light of his impressive outing these playoffs. He will easily command $3 MM or more, and things are tight enough as is. Assuming the Capitals lose a defenseman in expansion, perhaps Dmitry Orlov, and the seemingly inevitable departure of Kevin Shattenkirk, their D-corps will look very different. Because of these losses, they will be pressed to find room for their shutdown defender Karl Alzner, also impending UFA.

If Oshie prices himself out, Alzner is a fantastic consolation prize. The ideal scenario for the team would be re-signing both, but contracts would absolutely need to be moved out. A realistic possibility the Capitals could consider is moving one of Brooks Orpik or Matt Niskanen. Both were signed in the summer of 2014, and both contracts would be difficult to move. Niskanen is undoubtedly the better hockey player at this juncture, but he also is under contract for another 4 seasons. At 30 years old, this is not too great of a risk, but his pricetag of $5.75 MM may prove too steep for a multitude of teams. He also has a limited No-Trade Clause, which would complicate any possible transaction.

The more preferable scenario would be to unload Orpik, but the 36 year old does not look long for the league, especially in this post-season. Although he is only under contract for 2 more seasons, his $5.5 MM would be quite the expense for many teams. Perhaps Vegas or a relatively young bottom dwelling team (Colorado, Buffalo) would be interested in his veteran savvy, but it would be a difficult sell. Orpik should not be considered a core piece, of the defense moving forward, especially with youngsters Dimitri Orlov and Nate Schmidt proving so valuable. His starts in the defensive zone have steadily declined over the past 6 seasons, and for a supposedly shutdown player, his quality of competition has also taken a nosedive. He contributes nearly nothing offensively for a team that thrives off of its offensive creativity, potting only 18 goals in over 1000 games played, including 0 this past season to go with 14 assists. His hitting ability is well-documented, but for a team that employs Tom Wilson, physicality will not be a problem. Finding a way before expansion to unload his contract would be a godsend, but it will take some maneuvering on the part of management.

Assuming the Capitals don’t move a contract out, they still will be left exposing one or both of Orlov and Schmidt. Up front, it’s obvious that Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Marcus Johansson, Kuznetsov, Wilson, and two of the Oshie (if re-signed), Andre Burakovsky(RFA), Lars Eller trio will be protected. (Eller himself could be an option in a move for cap relief) On the backend, Niskanen and John Carlson look like locks, and a decision will need to be made regarding the third protected player. The wildcard for Washington is that, considering his strong play in very limited action, backup goaltender Philipp Grubauer could instead be claimed by Vegas.

It’s difficult to foresee where the Capitals go from here, realizing there will be bidding wars for the two players they are likely to want to retain in Oshie and Alzner. Even in a best case scenario, this Capitals team will not have the strength it did in 2016-17.

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