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Expansion Primer: Edmonton Oilers

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

After a decade out of the playoffs, the Edmonton Oilers rebounded in a big way with over 100 points and making it to Game 7 of the second round. Connor McDavid lead the NHL in scoring, while Cam Talbot lead all goaltenders with 73 games played. Leon Draisaitl finished top-ten in scoring and cemented his place as the best Oilers forward in the non-McDavid category.

The Oilers made one of the biggest moves of the off-season, trading superstar forward Taylor Hall to New Jersey for Adam Larsson, who played a big role in solidifying the team’s defence. Late off-season free agent signing Kris Russell played top-four minutes. Mid-season, GM Peter Chiarelli traded Brandon Davidson to Montreal for diminutive center David Desharnais.

Their success this season proved to management that their Stanley Cup window is one or two moves away from being a legitimate contender. With one season until McDavid’s upcoming big contract enters the picture, Chiarelli has some freedom to go for it. The expansion draft may create an opportunity to acquire a big name. Here’s a closer look at their situation:

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Leon Draisaitl, Jordan Eberle, Zack Kassian, Jujhar Khaira, Mark Letestu, Milan Lucic (NMC), Patrick Maroon, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Iiro Pakarinen, Zach Pochiro, Benoit Pouliot, Henrik Samuelsson

Defense:

Mark Fayne, Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson, David Musil, Griffin Reinhart, Andrej Sekera (NMC), Dillon Simpson

Goalies:

Laurent Brossoit, Cam Talbot (NMC)

Notable Exemptions

F Connor McDavid, F Jesse Puljujärvi, F Drake Caggiula, F Anton Slepyshev, D Matt Benning, D Darnell Nurse

Key Decisions

The Oilers only have one decision to make ahead of expansion. It helps tremendously that their superstar captain, three highly-touted forward prospects, and two future top-four defensemen are all exempt. The Oilers will go the 7-3-1 route.

Heading into the trade deadline, it appeared that the Oilers would lose the emerging Davidson to Vegas. The Oilers have Oscar Klefbom, Larsson, and Andrej Sekera for the three defensemen protection slots. With that in mind, Chiarelli traded Davidson to Montreal for Desharnais. The trade didn’t necessarily work out for the Oilers, with Desharnais not being able to solidify the Oilers’ third line and injuries piling up on Edmonton’s blue line at the end of their series against Anaheim.

Trading Davidson also means that the Oilers are going to lose someone else. Mark Letestu

The major choice the Oilers have to make is between Jujhar Khaira and Mark Letestu. The veteran Letestu has one year remaining at $1.8MM. He had 35 points, including 11 power-play goals, after overtaking Jordan Eberle as the right-shot option on the Oilers’ number one power-play unit. However, he’s also a 32-year-old fourth line center coming off high highest point-total in four seasons and a UFA next summer. In 2015-16, Letestu struggled when thrust onto the Oilers’ third line. The Golden Knights are not likely to have sufficient center depth to cover for Letestu at 5-on-5, so they’re liable to look elsewhere.

They may look no further than Khaira, who is just beginning his NHL career. He scored one goal in 10 NHL games last season before suffering an injury. He also had 20 points in 27 AHL games, showing offensive potential enough to one day develop into a third line checking center. Khaira is the kind of young talent that Vegas could look for instead of a 30-something bottom-six forward like Letestu.

Other possible selections include Laurent Brossoit, Griffin Reinhart, and Benoit Pouliot. All five of the above mentioned Oilers are waiver-eligible, meaning there’s no added benefit to taking one of the younger players. It shouldn’t have to be mentioned, but there’s no way the Oilers expose Eberle. Despite his down year, Eberle was still a top-60 scoring winger in the NHL and that is far too valuable to flush for one season of a down shooting percentage.

While the market is flush with goaltenders, Brossoit could be an interesting option as the Golden Knights’ backup for their inaugural season. GM George McPhee could select several options for the starting job and then trade them to teams needing help in the blue paint and use Brossoit as the backup. The young goaltender has played very well at every level, from leading the Edmonton Oil Kings to a Memorial Cup-berth, to successful years starting in the ECHL and AHL, and a good run as the Oilers’ backup during the second half of last season.

Griffin ReinhartMcPhee is willing to take on bad contracts, if the price is right. Pouliot could be one of those redemption options. After several years as a middle-six forward with good analytics, aggressive play, and solid penalty killing, Pouliot fell off the map in 2016-17. He had just 14 points in 67 games and zero points in the playoffs. At $4MM, he’s too expensive to spend two more seasons in Edmonton as McDavid and Draisaitl move on from their entry-level deals. But on an expansion team, he could return to a top-nine role and return to the mid-30 point range that he’s hit so consistently before.

The likeliest selection is Reinhart. The 2012 4th-overall pick has developed slower than expected, but by several accounts was the best defenseman on the Oilers’ AHL team last season. While he’ll never live up to the expectations that come with his draft position (one slot ahead of Morgan Rielly and two ahead of Hampus Lindholm), Reinhart can still become a dependable fifth defenseman who excels on the penalty kill. That has value, and his draft pedigree suggests there’s a player there.

With all that in mind, the Oilers would be better-served offering up Letestu instead of Khaira. Of course, Chiarelli may decide to hold on to the player who has proven he can score 30-plus points and play well on special teams, instead of a player who may be that in the future.

Projected Protection List

F Leon Draisaitl
F Jordan Eberle
F Zack Kassian
F Jujhar Khaira
F Milan Lucic (NMC)
F Patrick Maroon
F Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

D Oscar Klefbom
D Adam Larsson
D Andrej Sekera (NMC)

G Cam Talbot (NMC)

Out of the unprotected players, Reinhart has the best pedigree and is young enough to still develop into a legitimate top-six defenseman. Khaira and Brossoit also have NHL-potential, and should be options for Vegas. Chiarelli and McPhee could also work out a trade where Vegas take an expensive player like Pouliot or Mark Fayne in exchange for a prospect or pick, but that’s far from guaranteed. As a future division rival, McPhee may not be inclined to help out Edmonton for less than a high pick or top prospect. Between Pouliot, Iiro Pakarinen, Fayne, and Brossoit, the Oilers meet the exposure requirements. At his year-end availability, Chiarelli told reporters that the Oilers were going to lose someone that they would rather keep. However, the Oilers situation is far better than most teams; the most likely options are their backup goaltender, fourth line center, or an AHL defenseman.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Evening Notes: Chayka, Boogaard, Oilers

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Coyotes GM John Chayka spoke with Craig Morgan of Arizona Sports and provided decent insight into the team’s strategy headed into the summer. Chayka is the youngest general manager in the league and has become infamous for his cap management strategies. Chayka seems highly interested in acquiring a player from a team worried about losing an asset for nothing. Although many other GMs will be seeking to accomplish similar deals, Chayka looks to be relatively aggressive on this front. He tempered Mike Smith trade speculation, saying “there’s a value to our team that Mike has, being an All-Star and our rock; his value is extremely high but if someone wants to pay an even higher value for him, that’s the industry.” There is also no news as to Shane Doan’s retirement decision. Chayka emphasized the increasing urgency among all GMs as the expansion draft seems to have every organization slightly on edge.

  • The case for wrongful death filed against the NHL on behalf of the late Derek Boogaard has been tossed out, according to the Star-Tribune. Boogaard died at the age of 28, after a long enforcer career with the Minnesota Wild and New York Rangers. He received multiple brain injuries and relied on opioid pain killers as treatment, which led to an addiction that eventually resulted in his demise. Fighting has declined substantially over recent years in the NHL, as both the NHL and NHLPA are looking to reduce incidents of traumatic brain injury. The debate over the role of violence in the sport remains a hot-button issue, but players still generally vote in favor of fisticuffs when surveyed. That the Boogaard case has been dismissed on technicalities is a setback for safety advocates, as there is a looming lawsuit in U.S. courts which seeks to prove that the league has been reckless in its regard for player safety in relation to concussions. Whether these off-ice lawsuits will impact the next Collective Bargaining Agreement, or the way penalties are called, remains to be seen.
  • The NHL released the results of a fan vote for the greatest team of all time in honor of the 100 year anniversary – with the 1984-85 Edmonton Oilers taking top honors. The 1991-92 Pittsburgh Penguins came in at number two, followed by the 1976-77 Montreal Canadiens.

Expansion Primer: Winnipeg Jets

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler, Bryan Little, Mathieu Perreault, Shawn Matthias, Adam Lowry, Joel Armia, Ivan Telegin, Quinton Howden, Marko Dano, Scott Kosmachuk, Andrew Copp, Ryan Olsen, J.C. Lipon

Defensemen:

Dustin Byfuglien (NMC), Toby Enstrom (NMC), Tyler Myers, Jacob Trouba, Mark Stuart, Julian Melchiori, Ben Chiarot

Goaltenders:

Michael Hutchinson, Connor Hellebuyck

Notable Exemptions

Patrik Laine, Nikolaj Ehlers, Kyle Connor, Jack Roslovic, Tucker Poolman, Logan Stanley, Josh Morrissey, Michael Spacek, Jansen Harkins

Key Decisions

Adam LowryThe biggest factor in the Jets expansion protection is something we’ve written about before; whether or not Enstrom will waive his no-movement clause. If he does, it gives the team several options while if he doesn’t, the Jets will be almost forced to protect eight skaters instead of the 7-3-1 method.

Up front Scheifele, Wheeler and Little are locks as the core of the forward group, but after that it gets a little tricky. Perreault, Lowry, Armia, Dano and Copp all have their own strengths and weaknesses, and could deserve protection depending on how the team decides on their future. Perreault had another solid season with 45 points in 65 games but has had trouble staying healthy and is on the books until he’s 33.

The other four are all 24 or under and have shown flashes of big potential. Armia and Dano are former first-round picks, while Lowry and Copp are both capable young centers, something Vegas will be hard-pressed to find in the draft. Even if the team protects seven forwards, there will be an interesting option or two available up front. Toby Enstrom

Defense is where the problems originate, since Enstrom’s NMC puts several players at risk. Even if Myers’ health issues are starting to wear on Winnipeg fans, watching him walk out the door for nothing after trading Evander Kane and Zach Bogosian to acquire him (and the rest of the package) would be painful. Trouba obviously deserves protection, leaving Melchiori and Chiarot as outside options for the Golden Knights.

In net Hellebuyck is clearly the future in Winnipeg, even if he is supplanted in the short-term by a free agent acquisition. Hutchinson has shown he has some ability as an NHL backup, but would be way down the menu for Vegas and unlikely to be selected anyway.

The Golden Knights will get a window in which to negotiate with free agents, and for the Jets that doesn’t seem to be an issue. Other than possibly bringing Pavelec on board, there aren’t any UFAs that are worth forfeiting what should be a good selection from Winnipeg.

Projected Protection List

F Mark Scheifele
F Blake Wheeler
F Bryan Little
F Adam Lowry

D Dustin Byfuglien (NMC)
D Toby Enstrom (NMC)
D Tyler Myers
D Jacob Trouba

G Connor Hellebuyck

If the Jets can’t get Enstrom to waive it, the protection list should look something like this. It would make their group one of the most talented options Vegas has in the draft, and a tough but rewarding selection for them. Because of that, watch closely for the team to figure out a deal with the Golden Knights to pick a certain player.

Of note, Ivan Telegin appears on the eligible list despite him never playing an NHL game and only 34 AHL contests. He’s played in the KHL for the past three seasons, but since those were after he had already signed an Standard Player Contract (SPC) in the NHL—his entry-level deal in 2011—he’s considered to have several years of professional service and is therefore eligible.

The Jets are in one of the worst situations in the league at the moment for the draft, though it is mostly because of the solid depth they’ve built at every position. For a team vying for the playoffs next season, losing one of the above listed players wouldn’t be crippling especially as they have youngsters like Roslovic and Poolman set to fight for spots.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Evening Notes: Beauchemin, Tocchet, MacKinnon

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According to Adrian Dater, it seems likely that Francois Beauchemin will not be bought out by the Colorado Avalanche. His contract is for $4.5 MM and only has one season remaining. He is 37 and signed the contract after his 35th birthday according to CapFriendly, which does make a potential buyout less worthwhile. On 35+ contracts, the team does not receive a cap benefit from a buyout, so the move would be made for other reasons. A buyout would have opened up a roster spot for a younger player and perhaps allowed them to accelerate the re-build. More importantly, it would have allowed Sakic to keep an extra young defender protected, such as Mark Barberio, in the upcoming expansion draft. Beauchemin could be asked to waive his No-Movement Clause, but there has been no indication that has been done.

A standard buyout doesn’t seem to be worth the hassle to GM Joe Sakic, so he will look to either move him for a low pick before expansion, or merely ride out the last season with the veteran. All told, Beauchemin’s stats weren’t all that terrible for a team who finished dead last in the standings. He actually performed noticeably better in possession stats than the season prior, hitting 47.9% Corsi For after a dreadful 43.4% in 2015-16. His plus/minus of -14 was actually better than any other defenseman, excluding Erik Johnson who missed half the season. His point production obviously took a hit, and he lost a step in speed, but with only one year remaining and the Avalanche facing larger issues, Sakic might be wise to turn complete attention to the trade market and drafting with the #4 pick.

  • Rick Tocchet is one of, if not the hottest, name on the coaching market right now. His work on the Penguins’ bench has been commended by many in Pittsburgh, and multiple teams with coaching vacancies have already hinted at their interest. The Buffalo Sabres in particular seem quite high on him. According to Dan Rosen, however, Tocchet’s phone has been remained quiet as his team advanced to the finals. Other organizations have put their pursuit of his talents on hold, as they are allowing him to perform his duties for the Penguins squad in the finals. Tocchet struggled in Tampa Bay as a head coach before landing the assistant position in Pittsburgh under then-coach Mike Johnston. He was a vocal critic of the special teams and handling of stars as a continual radio guest in the Pittsburgh area, before getting the recommendation from owner Mario Lemieux. He survived the cleansing of the coaching staff when Johnston was fired, and has thrived in his new role under Mike Sullivan. His ability to communicate effectively with talented players and coordinate plays have been the most appreciated in Steel City.
  • Another note on Sakic and the Avalanche – on Friday, when TSN created its “Top 30 Trade BaitBoard”, Nathan MacKinnon found himself included. While nothing should be out of the question for a team that finished 30th overall and with only 49 points, MacKinnon appears to be the only true untouchable on the team. Nothing short of an absurd overpayment would pry him out of Denver, as his value to that team is greater than to any of the other 29 organizations. The 21 year old only posted 16 goals last season, but the entire team was dreadful, and Nathan is a safe bet to rebound. Anything is possible, but in all likelihood he is the forward around which the rest of the team will be built. When the team drafts at #4 in this year’s draft, it will be with his needs at least partially in mind.

Where Will Thornton Land?

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With a free-agent class this sparse, the expansion draft and the transactions it will force are certain to steal much of the thunder from Free Agent “Frenzy”. That said, there are quite a few names, who while not dazzling, could be invaluable additions to a cup-contending team. One of the names that has often been overlooked thus far is the masterful playmaker Joe Thornton. Only a year removed from a Stanley Cup Final, the San Jose Sharks now will need to make a decision on their two long-time leaders in Patrick Marleau and Thornton. For all the flack the forwards have gotten over the years for leadership issues, including both being stripped of the captaincy, they have been remarkably consistent assets to their franchise.

Marleau looks the more likely of the two to stay put. The 37 year-old did net 27 goals this past season, good for 3rd on the team behind only Joe Pavelski and Brent Burns. With him being only one of three forwards to net more than 11 goals last year, his loss of production could be devastating. Unless Marleau wants to chase a championship elsewhere, he seems a good lock to stay. He will certainly be expected to take a paycut from his $6.66 MM, as would Thornton ($6.7 MM) if he decided to stay. Thornton, on the other hand, could get quite expensive, and negotiations could be considerably more complicated.

Proven, top-nine capable centers are at the top of many teams’ wanted lists. Most teams in the league wouldn’t be averse to taking Jumbo Joe on a sweet deal, so you could even expect a cap-crunched squad like Chicago or Pittsburgh to make a call if he truly is looking for a championship. Toronto would certainly be willing to take a risk on the aging player, and Edmonton would love his veteran presence. Anaheim and St. Louis would both love his talents as a third-line pivot and are both conceivably just a piece away. Montreal looks to be headed in the direction of youth up front, but they’ve been looking for a strong presence up the middle for years. There is no shortage of landing spots for Thornton if he would decide to test the market, and this interest could easily drive his price up.

Ultimately, however, it’s hard to see Thornton leaving Northern California, especially to a conference rival. He has stated his desire to return to the team, saying “I’d love to come back….but we’ll have to see.” It could turn into a drawn-out process, depending on how hard other teams make strong pitches for him. He is 38 years-old and scored just 7 goals last season, so age is an element that will enter the calculus in a new deal. But when the next best available centers are Martin Hanzal and Nick Bonino, the competition for his services could get fierce. As of yet, no contract negotiations have reportedly begun for either Marleau or Thornton.

Expansion Primer: Pittsburgh Penguins

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

With the Penguins up two games to zero in the Stanley Cup Finals, the team’s success under the guidance of GM Jim Rutherford cannot be understated. Potential back-to-back championships following a long list of playoff disappointments and identity crises would all but erase the sting of many poor management decisions under former GM Ray Shero.

After the acquisition of Phil Kessel, the team has not looked back in the slightest offensively. They sat out and relished their summer last off-season with minimal movement, but this year Rutherford has decisions to make. Although the makeup of the team will surely be different come October, there are many options to be considered.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Sidney Crosby (NMC), Evgeni Malkin (NMC), Phil Kessel (NMC), Patric Hornqvist, Carl Hagelin, Bryan Rust, Tom Kuhnhackl, Scott Wilson, Josh Archibald (RFA), Oskar Sundqvist (RFA), Jean-Sebastien Dea (RFA)

Defense:

Kris Letang (NMC), Olli Maatta, Ian Cole, Brian Dumoulin (RFA), Derrick Pouliot (RFA), Justin Schultz (RFA), Frank Corrado (RFA), Tim Erixon (RFA), Stuart Percy (RFA)

Goalies:

Marc-Andre Fleury (NMC), Matt Murray

Jake Guentzel, Conor Sheary, Daniel Sprong, Carter Rowney, Tristan Jarry, Zach Aston-Reese, Thomas DiPauli, Teddy Blueger, Dominik Simon,  Jeff Taylor, Ethan Prow, Lukas Bengtsson, Sean Maguire

Key Decisions

To get the elephant in the room cleared aside, it seems a foregone conclusion that Marc-Andre Fleury will waive his No Movement Clause in order for the franchise to protect Matt Murray. This arrangement would suit him, as he performs far better statistically in a starting role, and it allows him to be “the guy” in a new city. If for some unforeseen reason Fleury opts against waiving his NMC, Rutherford will assuredly find a trade elsewhere prior to the expansion draft. At the end of the day, Murray, with two amazing playoff performances at only 23 years-old, is going nowhere.

The other four players who must be protected are those which will not give management any sleepless nights. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are both future hall of famers playing prime hockey, providing great value for their contracts. Kessel, at his reduced rate, has absolutely exceeded expectations when his contract was shipped from Toronto. Kris Letang is the only player who some fans have balked out, as he has missed substantial chunks of time, consistently hitting LTIR and wasting cap dollars. Letang, however, is easily a top-10 defenseman in the league,. Watching how these playoffs have been far less decisive than last for Pittsburgh, there is no doubt the entire organization is willing to take the risk to have him return to the blueline.

The major decision right off the start will be whether Rutherford will decide to go with the 7 forwards-3 defensemen-1 goalie model, or the 8 total protected alternative. It seems apparent that most teams will opt for the former, because it provides protection to two additional players. The Penguins, however, are facing truly unique circumstances, and it seems slightly more likely that they will opt for the latter.

Assuming they go that route to protect their defensive corps (one of Justin Schultz/Olli Maatta), the decision at forward will not be an easy one. Beyond the big three up front who must be protected, there are a few names which could intrigue Vegas. Considering the cost to acquire him (James Neal), and his absolutely pivotal net-front presence, Patrick Hornqvist seems the safest bet to secure protection. Rutherford is a big fan, and many in management have placed a lot of faith in him. The downside of this, of course, is that it would leave Bryan Rust exposed. Rust has already made a name for himself in big games, with multiple game-winning and series-clinching goals. He has the same net-front mentality that Hornqvist does, and is five years his junior. Hornqvist is the more proven offensive commodity, but Rust’s 15 goals and 28 points are nothing to look down upon. In the wake of a potential loss of the hard nosed but unrestricted Chris Kunitz, this would be a painful blow to the team’s physicality. Thankfully, both Conor Sheary and Jake Guentzel are exempt from selection, which helps solidify their top lines regardless of this decision.

The defense if the 4-4-1 model is adopted is quite easy to predict. Although Ian Cole has been a completely perfect shot-blocking minute muncher this playoff run, he is 28 years old and relatively ineffective at driving offense with speed. Assuming that Schultz re-signs and doesn’t command an absolute robbery of a contract, he will be protected. His playoff run has been mostly solid, if spotted with occasional mishap, and his 51 points last season was good for 6th among defenseman in the league, just behind the likes of Dustin Byfuglien and Duncan Keith. That sort of production isn’t easily replaced, and especially considering Letang’s precarious health situation, he is the go-to offensive defenseman in his absence.

Maatta could certainly find himself on the outs, but it’s difficult to imagine him being exposed in the expansion draft. The team showed a great deal of confidence in him by inking him to a 6 year contract after limited sophomore season action, and his contract at $4.083 is certainly manageable. The 23 year-old two-way defender will certainly need to improve his skating to keep up with the high-flying organizational mentality, and there is the possibility his sluggishness has landed him in serious disfavor. If Rutherford were intent on moving on from Maatta, however, it would not be via expansion – he is too valuable a piece to lose for nothing. A trade is certainly a possibility, but the smart money is on the front office praying for a healthy summer of training and improvement for the young Finn.

It is certainly conceivable that the Penguins do opt for the 7-3-1 option, if they truly value Rust more than Schultz or Maatta. This would result in Rust, Scott Wilson, and one of Tom Kuhnhackl, Josh Archibald, and Carl Hagelin to be the additional protect-ees. (Hagelin’s $4 MM contract would likely make him a prime target for sacrifice under this scenario.) Maatta would be the likely claim in this potentiality, as he is less favored internally for purely stylistic reasons when contrasted with Schultz.

However, it seems more likely that Pittsburgh has already worked out a scenario between Fleury, his agent, and Vegas management regarding Marc-Andre Fleury. Rutherford’s lack of panic around the draft last year has led many to believe that this situation has already been handled, and that perhaps a sweetener will be thrown in for not claiming Bryan Rust or a young defenseman.

Projected Protection List

F Sidney Crosby (NMC)
F Evgeni Malkin (NMC)
F Phil Kessel (NMC)
F Patrick Hornqvist

D Kris Letang (NMC)
D Brian Dumoulin
D Justin Schultz
D Olli Maatta

G Matt Murray

If for whatever reason one of Maatta and Schultz is left to dry in the place of this prediction, the re-signing of Trevor Daley and perhaps even Ron Hainsey would likely follow suit. The loss of Rust would be difficult to sustain on an emotional level, as he has been a leader for the younger Wilkes-Barre call-ups since last season. But with young players like Zach Aston-Reese and Daniel Sprong looking to claim a roster spot in training camp next season, his offensive production would likely be easy to absorb. Ultimately, however, it seems probable that Fleury will be Vegas’ selection. Following his impressive resurgence in the first two round of the playoffs, and his difficult situation in Pittsburgh behind the legendary Matt Murray, it seems a fit that would work for all parties involved.

Expansion Primer: Montreal Canadiens

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

After a down season in 2015-16 where they missed the postseason, the Canadiens rebounded a year later, earning the top spot in the Atlantic Division.  However, the challenges they had scoring in the second half of the season carried over into the playoffs and as a result, they were eliminated by the Rangers in the first round.

After the big trade that saw P.K. Subban shipped to Nashville for Shea Weber last summer, more changes are expected this offseason although not quite to that extent.  One of those changes will come through the expansion draft where as things stand, they could potentially lose a long-time veteran or an intriguing youngster to the Golden Knights.  Here’s a closer look at their situation.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Paul Byron, Daniel Carr, Connor Crisp, Phillip Danault, Jacob de la Rose, Alex Galchenyuk, Brendan Gallagher, Charles Hudon, Stefan Matteau, Torrey Mitchell, Max Pacioretty, Tomas Plekanec, Andrew Shaw, Chris Terry

Defense:

Nathan Beaulieu, Jordie Benn, Brandon Davidson, Alexei Emelin, Keegan Lowe, Nikita Nesterov, Jeff Petry (NMC), Zach Redmond, Dalton Thrower, Shea Weber

Goalies:

Al Montoya, Carey Price (NMC)

Notable Exemptions

F Artturi Lehkonen, G Charlie Lindgren, F Michael McCarron, D Jakub Jerabek, F Nikita Scherbak, D Mikhail Sergachev

Key Decisions

In the time leading up to the trade deadline, it felt as if GM Marc Bergevin may have been hedging against losing a defenseman to Vegas.  He made three separate deals to add defensive depth with the acquisitions of Nesterov, Davidson, and Benn.  The first two look like locks to be left unprotected while Benn certainly presents an interesting case.

Between Petry’s NMC and Weber’s status as their top blueliner, those two are locks to be protected while it’s unlikely that they’ll opt to not go with the standard 7-3-1 format.  That leaves just one spot up for grabs between Benn, Beaulieu, and Emelin.  Emelin’s contract ($4.1MM for one more year) makes him a likely candidate to be left unprotected but the same can’t be said for the other two.

Upon being acquired, Benn solidified Montreal’s third pairing and became a go-to player on the penalty kill.  He has two years left on his deal at a cap hit of $1.1MM which is pretty good value for a regular blueliner.  Benn can also play as left and a right defender and that type of versatility isn’t the easiest to find.

Apr 7, 2017; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Montreal Canadiens defenseman Nathan Beaulieu (28) makes a pass against Tampa Bay Lightning during the second period at Bell Centre. Mandatory Credit: Jean-Yves Ahern-USA TODAY SportsAs for Beaulieu, the former first rounder has shown flashes of legitimate top four potential but has also made some tough mistakes in his own end to the point where he was a healthy scratch in the postseason finale.  He took a big step forward offensively this season and at the age of 24, there’s a case to be made that there’s still some upside.  It would be tough for Montreal to risk losing a player like that for nothing.  The last defensive protection spot will come down to these two assuming no trades are made between now and the submission deadline and it won’t be an easy decision either way.

Up front, there are a few choices that Bergevin will have to make.  Alexander Radulov is set to become an unrestricted free agent and will be one of the top players available on the open market.  There’s mutual interest in a return but there’s no doubt that the Golden Knights have the financial wherewithal to make him a sizable offer during their negotiation period in the days leading up to the draft.  If a deal isn’t done between now and then, there’s a case to be made that he could still be worth protecting, just to make sure Vegas can’t up the ante on the bidding early on.

The Canadiens have a pair of young forwards who have had some NHL success but have also struggled at times in Carr and de la Rose.  Carr showed a bit of a scoring touch back in 2015-16 but took a step back this season in both the NHL and AHL.  He still has one year left on his deal with a $725K cap hit.  As for de la Rose, his best impression came as a 19 year old where he played nearly half a season and looked like a core checker of the future.  His offensive game hasn’t exactly developed though and while he’s a center with some size in an organization lacking both those elements, his upside is starting to look a bit limited although he would still fit in nicely as a fourth liner with several years of team control.  He will be a restricted free agent this summer.

Dec 19, 2015; Dallas, TX, USA; Montreal Canadiens center Tomas Plekanec (14) skates in warm-ups prior to the game against the Dallas Stars at the American Airlines Center. The Stars defeat the Canadiens 6-2. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY SportsMontreal’s center depth isn’t particularly strong so at the outset, it would only make sense that the team would want to protect what they have.  That may not be the case when it comes to Plekanec.  The veteran of parts of 13 NHL seasons (all with the Canadiens) had a down year in 2016-17, posting 28 points, the lowest he has put up in any full season.  He still brings defensive value to the table but with another year left on his deal with a $6MM cap hit, he may be a safe option to expose.  If Vegas opted to take him, that would open up a lot more financial flexibility for Montreal this summer.

Then there’s Hudon.  He has been one of the top goal scorers at the AHL the last two years but hasn’t really had much of a look with the big club, getting into just six career NHL games (where he collected four assists).  There are questions about his skating but his scoring touch in the minors will make him an intriguing option for Vegas GM George McPhee if Montreal decides to leave him unprotected.  Given their own scoring woes, Hudon is someone that the Canadiens may decide is too important to leave exposed despite his lack of NHL experience.

Beyond Radulov, the only other prominent unrestricted free agent the Canadiens have is Markov.  The 38 year old has solely been with Montreal since they drafted him in 1998 and he has already expressed an interest in returning as well.  Given his age, Markov isn’t the type of player Vegas is likely to target nor would it be likely that Markov would entertain the idea of going to an expansion team at this stage of his career.

Projected Protection List

F Paul Byron
F Phillip Danault
F Alex Galchenyuk
F Brendan Gallagher
F Charles Hudon
F Max Pacioretty
F Andrew Shaw

D Nathan Beaulieu
D Jeff Petry (NMC)
D Shea Weber

G Carey Price

Out of the unprotected players, Benn highlights several blueliners that could step in and help right away while Plekanec would be one of the better centers available.  Although he’d be pricey, he’s also the type of player they could flip for younger assets at the trade deadline.  If Radulov is still unsigned, a significant offer could be made to lure in a legitimate top line winger which would be quite the coup.  Or he could go with a youngster up front (whoever isn’t protected between Hudon and de la Rose most likely) and get someone that will be cost controlled for a few years still through the RFA system while being able to contribute right away.  McPhee should have a few interesting players to choose from the Canadiens assuming no side deal is made between now and the draft.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Speculation Continues Regarding Jordan Eberle

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Though the Edmonton Oilers haven’t come out and said that Jordan Eberle is on the block, his name continues to pop up in trade speculation all around the league. Today, while releasing the first edition of “Trade Bait”, TSN’s Frank Seravalli wrote:

The Edmonton Oilers will look to move winger Jordan Eberle and his $6-million salary cap hit after a dismal playoff run that saw him fail to score a single goal over two rounds. Jordan Eberle

Eberle appears at #6 on the list, wedged between a pair of defensemen from teams that missed the playoffs. Despite his miserable playoff performance, Eberle remains a perennial 20-goal scorer and one of the most consistent offensive producers in the league. Though he hasn’t quite reached the sophomoric highs he reached in 2011-12, he can be counted on to score at least 50 points even in a reduced role like he saw this year. After turning 27 just a few weeks ago, he surely has some effective years left under his belt.

It’s that pesky $6MM that is getting in the way in Edmonton, as just this week GM Peter Chiarelli admitted that they’d have to move out a contract sooner or later to accommodate the big deals looming for Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid. The team will also have to pay to retain Kris Russell this summer should they choose to bring him back. Eberle is the prime candidate because of his value—the fact that he still has some, unlike Benoit Pouliot—and position on the wing. He could be moved and replaced much easier than Ryan Nugent-Hopkins for instance, who is an important center for them as long as Draisaitl continues to skate alongside McDavid.

The fact that Seravalli has him so high on the board suggests that there is real fire behind the smoke, and that Edmonton is really considering a move for the former Team Canada hero. It may though have to wait, as if he’s moved for a defenseman like Taylor Hall last season, it could put the Oilers into protection trouble for the expansion draft. More likely, he’d be moved at the draft or sometime this summer after the insanity known as June is over. For now, we’ll just have to wait and see.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Columbus Blue Jackets Trying To Deal David Clarkson Contract

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As the Vegas Golden Knights enter the league, another destination for bad contracts has appeared. Previously limited to places like Arizona and Toronto, the Golden Knights are likely to be involved in several transactions that help cap-troubled teams rid themselves of painful deals. Already it has been reported that Chicago may give up a young defenseman in order to move Marcus Kruger’s cap-hit, and Columbus may be in the same boat. On Sportsnet radio this morning, Elliotte Friedman mentioned that the Blue Jackets have been trying to get Vegas to take David Clarkson’s contract off their hands. David Clarkson

When he was acquired from the Maple Leafs in early 2015, Clarkson’s deal was already bad. He was in just the second year of a massive seven-year, $35.75MM deal and already looked a decade removed from the 30-goal performance (and subsequent 15-goal season in the lockout-shortened 2012-13) that had earned it. The reason Columbus was interested in all, is the fact that they could send Nathan Horton’s equally bad contract back, seeing as how he would never play hockey again. Horton had a degenerative back injury that would force him to retire, and his contract wasn’t insured. The prevailing thought at the time was “at least Clarkson is a healthy body that can play some games for us.”

Now, two years later, Clarkson is also retired due to injury but remains a dark stain on the Blue Jackets’ cap structure. Though he’ll sit on long-term injured reserve (LTIR) for the three remaining years and his contract is insured, giving the Blue Jackets some financial relief, it still impacts what the team can do in the offseason. Injured players can’t be placed on LTIR until the season begins, meaning they have $5.25MM less room each summer in which to work. Also, though LTIR allows you to go over the salary cap any performance bonuses by entry-level players would be pushed to the next season like they will in Toronto this year.

If the cap were to remain flat this summer, the Blue Jackets would have just under $3MM to spend even though Alexander Wennberg and Josh Anderson (among others) need new deals as restricted free agents. Though you can go up to 10% over the cap at any point, it needs to be in order by the last day of training camp. Moving out Clarkson’s contract would seem imperative, and as Friedman says the Blue Jackets have been trying to figure out what “sweetener” can they put in to make it palatable for Vegas. Again, Clarkson isn’t going to play this year or any other. He’s currently coaching high school hockey in Ohio. He’s not eligible for selection in the expansion draft, but that sweetener could come by Columbus exposing someone or something unexpected.

These are the ways Vegas will make their team competitive, not just selecting the aging-veterans or underperforming youngsters available in the draft. Their power comes in the idea of a blank ledger, one they can twist to their advantage over the coming months.

Expected Extensions Prior To Expansion

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Over the next few weeks, leading up to  June 17th, when each team must submit their list of protected players from the Expansion Draft, there is going to be a flurry of activity. The Vegas Golden Knights are expected to make several side deals regarding the selection process, while the other 30 teams will be working through trade proposals with one another as well. Many teams will also make smaller moves, such as extensions and buyouts, to make the expansion process easier on themselves. Examples could include potential extensions by Carolina or San Jose if they decide they would like to protect Lee Stempniak or Mikkel Boedker respectively. However, there remain several teams that must re-sign a current player, following logic anyway, prior to Saturday the 17th, or else risk having to expose and possibly losing a major piece instead. Each team must expose two forwards and one defenseman that played in at least 40 games this season or 70 games over the past two seasons and also have term remaining on their contract. While meeting these quotas is not a problem for some teams, others lack the roster depth in long-term contracts to do so. No team wants to be pressured into exposing a valued player just to fill that quota, so instead they will sign another current player with the caveat that he will be left unprotected in the Expansion Draft. Such situations played out all year long, with Blackhawks’ forward Jordin Tootoo, Hurricanes’ defenseman Klas Dahlbeck, and, the most publicized of all, Flames’ defenseman Matt Bartkowksi. Yet, unsolved situations still exist. Below are some of the most dire situations and who could benefit from an extension in the near future in order for their team to comply with Expansion Draft rules:

Team: New Jersey Devils

Situation: The re-building Devils nonetheless have a solid core of forwards that they would like to keep together: Taylor Hall, Kyle Palmieri, Adam Henrique, Travis Zajac, and Mike Cammalleri. New Jersey should be within their means to protect this group, expect that it leaves only Devante Smith-Pelly as a forward meeting the 40/70 qualification. Even for those who doubt the effectiveness going forward of the oft-injured 34-year-old Cammalleri, surely the Devils could find a better player to sacrifice than he or Smith-Pelly if they so choose.

Expected Extension: As a young team, the devils are chock full of impending restricted free agents. However, not all RFAs are created equal. Beau Bennett, Jacob Josefson, and Stefan Noesen are all candidates for extension and exposure, but Bennett played a bigger role for New Jersey than even Smith-Pelly in 2016-17 and Noesen played the best hockey of his young career after a mid-season trade from the Anaheim Ducks. Josefson has shown next to no progress in six years in New Jersey. Look for the Devils to try to work out an extension with the 25-year-old center to fill the hole in their expansion plan.

 

Team: New York Rangers

Situation: The Devils’ cross-town rivals are in a similar situation. The Rangers have put together a core of forwards that is the envy of most teams in the league, but it could soon be torn apart. Many feel that backup goalie Antti Raanta will be Vegas’ choice, but New York doesn’t want to give them any reason not to go that route and instead steal a good young forward. The team is already reserved to the fact that 2016-17 breakout star Michael Grabner has to be exposed, but they would rather protect all five of Derek Stepan, Chris Kreider, Mats Zuccarello, J.T. Miller and Kevin Hayes, in addition to Rick Nash, whose No-Movement Clause prevents exposure, and impending RFA Mika Zibanejad. The only problem is that this protection scheme leaves only Grabner as a 40/7o forward.

Expected Extension: The Rangers are not without options for a forward to extend and expose. RFA’s Jesper Fast, Oscar Lindberg, Brandon Pirri, and Matt Puempel would all meet the quota criteria if handed a new deal, as would UFA Tanner Glass. While New York may not be eager to lose any of the four, none significantly outshine Raanta or Grabner in terms of selection value anyway, giving the team every reason to get an extension done with one or more. Fast seems certain to get a new contract from the Rangers anyway, so don’t be surprised if such a deal lands in the next week or two.

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