Expansion

Snapshots: Senators, Seattle, Last Place

March 6, 2018 at 6:45 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 4 Comments

Even though the NHL trade deadline has passed, the insiders are still hard at work for TSN. During tonight’s Insider Trading segment, Darren Dreger and Pierre LeBrun discussed several topics including the potential dilemma the Ottawa Senators face at the upcoming deadline. LeBrun outlines the situation Pierre Dorion finds himself in, as the first-round pick Ottawa sent to Colorado for Matt Duchene is top-10 protected this season but not in 2019.

LeBrun believes the Senators may consider letting Colorado have this year’s pick if it is in the back half of the top-10, to avoid the risk of giving up the first-overall selection (and the right to draft someone like Jack Hughes) in 2019. Ottawa is currently 28th in the league, but could fall as many as three spots depending on how the draft lottery plays out.

Dreger also suggested a few names that could be in play to lead the expansion Seattle franchise, including Detroit Red Wings GM Ken Holland, Vegas Golden Knights AGM Kelly McCrimmon, and super agent Pat Brisson. While Seattle is still several years from icing a team, the front office will begin to take shape as soon as the team is officially accepted by the NHL. There will likely be several unexpected names put forward, and it will be interesting to see if the franchise goes with an established name (like Holland) or someone that has little experience running a hockey club but an obvious connection to the game (Brisson).
At one point this season it looked obvious that the Arizona Coyotes were destined to finish in last once again and have the best chance at Rasmus Dahlin in the draft lottery. Now, that’s not so clear. After Arizona has played well the last few weeks while Ottawa and Buffalo have continued their inconsistency, there is now just a five point gap between the bottom three teams. There is a race for the bottom coming over the last month of the season, and one with another impressive prize. The draft lottery is shaping up to be another heartbreaking even for some teams, even though Filip Zadina, Brady Tkachuk and others aren’t bad consolation prizes.

Red Wings Notes: Bertuzzi, Frk, Mrazek, Howard, Nielsen

March 3, 2018 at 12:39 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg Leave a Comment

After the Detroit Red Wings traded away winger Tomas Tatar last week at the trade deadline, the team has split his minutes in two directions. Prospect Tyler Bertuzzi has replaced Tatar’s spot in the lineup alongside Andreas Athanasiou and Dylan Larkin, while veteran Martin Frk has taken the departed forward’s power play minutes in hopes of proving worthy of returning to a top line in the future. So far, Bertuzzi has fared well in the two games he’s played in Tatar’s even-strength role, picking up two assists, while averaging more that 14 minutes of ice time. However, don’t expect that to stay that way next year, writes the Detroit Free Press’ Helene St. James.

While the team does want to get an extended look at Bertuzzi, what it’s really waiting for is next season. Then they will take long looks at winger Evgeny Svechnikov, the team’s first-rounder in 2015, and 2017 first-rounder Michael Rasmussen, who is expected to be the center of the future in Detroit. Rasmussen, is coming off a solid season in the WHL and might be ready to join the Red Wings next season. As for Svechnikov, the hope is that he is ready for a spot in Detroit next season, but has struggled at times in his first year in the AHL.

St. James also adds that don’t expect too many call-ups this year as the Grand Rapids Griffins are still fighting for a playoff spot in AHL, so players like Svechnikov, Filip Hronek and Matt Puempel might not see a lot of time in Detroit as they are needed in Grand Rapids.
In the same article, St. James writes that the team will have to also take a long look at backup goalie Jared Coreau, who was recalled from the Grand Rapids Griffins after the team traded away Petr Mrazek. She writes that the team has doubts he can be a quality NHL backup and with one year left on Jimmy Howard’s contract, the team will be hard-pressed to find their future starter in one year. One possibility could be signing Mrazek back again in the offseason. With Brian Elliott and Michal Neuvirth already signed for next season, it seems unlikely that the Philadelphia Flyers will retain Mrazek, especially when he has a $4MM qualifying offer. Could Detroit make him their future No. 1?
Craig Custance of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that the team might consider extending Howard’s deal for one more year to give the team more time to find their goalie of the future. However, with the Red Wings looking to get as many picks as possible for their future, it would also make a lot of sense for the team to move him before the draft as team’s wouldn’t mind acquiring a veteran with just one year left on his deal.
In the same story, Custance also takes a look at the way-too early protected list if there is an expansion draft in 2020 for the Seattle franchise, which seems inevitable. Sadly, the top two players the Red Wings would be forced to protect will be veterans Henrik Zetterberg and Frans Nielsen. The hope is that Zetterberg, who will be 39 by then, will have retired, which would free up a spot, however, Nielsen has a no-movement clause and then, at age 35, should not be on that list. However, the veteran, who would still have two years left on his deal at $5.25MM AAV at that point, is likely going to cost Detroit a quality player down the road.

Expansion Notes: Seattle Ownership, Bettman, Vancouver

February 28, 2018 at 7:08 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 2 Comments

The NHL-to-Seattle movement is in full swing, and ESPN’s Emily Kaplan recently caught up with hopeful owners Jerry Bruckheimer, David Bonderman, and Tim Leiweke and talked about everything from the remodeling of KeyArena, to branding, to even acquiring an NBA franchise down the road. For now, the trio are just invested in being the ownership group of the league’s 32nd team (literally, as they paid a $10MM down payment along with their application paperwork earlier in the month). The next step is a season ticket drive, about which Bruckheimer told Kaplan “there’s a lot of momentum working in our direction”. Should the ticket drive prove successful, the NHL is likely to accept the bid and begin planning the next stage of NHL expansion. That would of course include another Expansion Draft. The Seattle ownership group has to be hopeful after seeing the success of the Vegas Golden Knights this season, and Bonderman told Kaplan “The commissioner has been consistent in saying it’s the same kind of process and procedures that they used in Vegas, and we’re going to hold them to that”.

Well, NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman spoke about that exact topic today, telling TSN’s Farhan Lalji that the process would be exactly the same for Seattle as it was for Vegas. The expansion process was unlike any seen in professional sports before, allowing the existing NHL teams to only protect a maximum of 11 players from their roster. While first- and second-year players were exempt, Vegas GM George McPhee still had several valuable players to pick as well as several vulnerable teams to manipulate. The resulting roster did not blow anyone away, but proved to be the perfect fit for head coach Gerard Gallant’s system and the Knights are now contenders in their inaugural season. The Seattle ownership group is a ways away from naming a GM or coach, but they’ll have to make strong selections if they wish to maximize the entry draft process like Bill Foley and the Golden Knights did.

The other decision that may still be a ways away but will nonetheless draw major attention and speculation is the team name. The name, logo, and colors of any sports team is a huge factor and the reveal of the Golden Knights was a major, televised event. So when is the earliest we could find out the Seattle moniker and see some colors and logos? How about the 2019 NHL Draft? The league announced today that the Vancouver Canucks will host the draft in 2019. What better time to reveal the first details about Seattle than at a key league event hosted by the team that will eventually be their natural geographic rival to kick off the league year prior to their planned induction ahead of the 2020-21 season. It hardly seems like a coincidence that Vancouver was chosen to host this specific draft, the last in which they will be the only NHL team from the Pacific Northwest. Bettman and company are thinking ahead. Stay tuned.

Vegas Golden Knights Acquire Detroit’s Tomas Tatar

February 26, 2018 at 2:11 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 15 Comments

The NHL’s biggest surprise, the expansion Vegas Golden Knights, have made a major splash at the deadline, acquiring Detroit Red Wings forward Tomas Tatar. TSN’s Brennan Klak reports the Knights gave up a first-, second-, and third-round pick for Tatar. Wings beat writer Ted Kulfan adds that it’s a 2018 first, 2019 second, and 2021 third.

The Knights are banking on continued success in the postseason, giving up their first-rounder in the franchise’s second draft ever. It’s quite a return for Detroit, though they give up a talented forward in his prime and is signed long-term. Tatar has routinely put up 40+ points in the past few seasons and plays the up-tempo style that should pair well with the Vegas system.

The Knights get their prize of the deadline, though they came close to making the biggest move of them all. TSN’s Bob McKenzie indicated that Vegas was the final team in on Ottawa Senators defensive superstar Erik Karlsson, but their push to complete the deal ran out of time. When it became clear that Karlsson (and likely Bobby Ryan) weren’t coming, GM George McPhee set his sights on Tatar.

Deadline Primer: Vegas Golden Knights

February 24, 2018 at 6:01 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg 2 Comments

With the trade deadline now just a few days away, we continue our closer look at the situation for each team. Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs? Next up is a look at the Vegas Golden Knights.

It’s hard to imagine that the Vegas Golden Knights are even an expansion team after the success they’ve had this season. Just in their inaugural season, the franchise which was expected to be among the bottom teams in the league, is atop the NHL with a league-leading 86 points in the standings and has forced the Golden Knights to re-evaluate their needs at the upcoming trade deadline. Expected to be sellers, the team now has opted to keep their top trade prospects in James Neal and David Perron and may be looking to add as the team makes its historic run towards a playoff spot and, who knows, maybe even a Stanley Cup run. The real question is what should this team do? The team already made a minor move when they were used to help offset some salary for the Pittsburgh Penguins and got enforcer Ryan Reaves in return. However, is general manager George McPhee done or does he have other ideas?

Record

41-16-4, first in the Pacific Division

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$34,263,967 in deadline cap space
43/50 contracts per CapFriendly

Draft Picks

2018: VGK 1st, VGK 2nd, VAN 4th, PIT 4th, CAR 5th, VGK 5th, VGK 6th, TOR 6th
2019: VGK 1st, VGK 2nd, COL 2nd, NYI 2nd, VGK 3rd, NSH 3rd, WIN 3rd, VGK 4th, VGK 5th, MON 5th, VGK 6th, VGK 7th

Trade Chips

Don’t expect the Golden Knights to be moving any of their trade chips and don’t expect Vegas to make any major moves. One of the many things that is going right for this franchise is the team’s chemistry and adding a bunch of players could easily break up what they already have. On top of that McPhee is well aware of the goals and timetable the team had set, so trading away the franchise’s future is also just as unlikely. The most likely trade chip the Golden Knights have will be their cap space, which is exactly what they did when they acquired Reaves and a fourth-round pick to help in the Derrick Brassard trade. The team retained $2MM for this year and next, but with their ample cap space, they likely won’t notice that hit much. While there has been talks the Golden Knights might try to flip him again, many believe he will stay in Vegas as his personality might be a perfect fit with the chemistry in the locker room. While there are names that could be moved if a team wants some of Vegas’ depth, don’t count on too many players getting moved out.

Players to Watch: D Jason Garrison, W Brendan Leipsic, W James Neal, W Ryan Reaves, D Luca Sbisa

Team Needs

1) Forward Depth

One thing Vegas is lacking is depth. While the team has been challenged this year when it comes to their goaltending depth, Vegas hasn’t been hit as hard when it comes to its offense. Despite minor injuries to Neal and others,

However, even with the addition of Reaves who might be a solid addition to their fourth-line, the team might still want to add some more players who could either play on their back-six or even some veterans that they can add to their AHL club just in case things go downhill.

2) Draft Picks

McPhee has done a great job of adding assets through the draft, which has always been the plan to build up this franchise. He netted two extra first-round picks for last year’s draft and has built up assets for the 2019 and 2020 draft. However, the original plan was to accumulate a bunch of picks for this year’s draft now at the trade deadline. While the Golden Knights aren’t sellers, don’t be shocked if they can’t add a couple of extra picks in the coming days.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Seattle To Start Season Ticket Drive On March 1st

February 20, 2018 at 2:10 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee Leave a Comment

Seattle has officially submitted their expansion application, and now will start their season ticket drive in just a few days. On March 1st, fans will be able to put a deposit down on season tickets for a potential first season, helping to indicate support for the franchise. By no means does this guarantee the NHL will be heading to the Pacific Northwest, but it is a key next step in the process.

The plan is for Seattle to enter the NHL for the 2020-21 season, meaning teams will already need to start preparing for a potential expansion draft. Though rosters will substantially change in the next few years, teams will have to make sure they’re not left in a position that Seattle can leverage into draft picks and prospects like Vegas was less than a year ago. With teams like Anaheim and Columbus, the Golden Knights were able to use their fear of losing a key player to gain valuable assets like Shea Theodore, William Karlsson and several high draft picks.

Fans of Seattle will hope for a similar situation, but it seems highly unlikely that they’ll be able to replicate the Golden Knights’ immediate success. That is, if the season ticket drive and application go according to plan and a franchise is awarded.

Detroit’s Holland “At Top Of List” To Run Seattle Franchise

February 18, 2018 at 12:36 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg 8 Comments

With the likelihood that Seattle will end up with their own expansion franchise in the coming years, the importance of hiring a top general manager will be surfacing quicker than ever. The Vegas Golden Knights have proved that running an expansion franchise might just be one of the top job in the NHL as George McPhee has showed. Now that Seattle has officially filed an expansion application recently, the team might be looking for their own GM, if/when it gets approved.

Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston reports that Detroit Red Wings general manager Ken Holland might be “at the top of the list,” of candidates to fill that role in Seattle in the near future.

“Let’s make no mistake about it, Kenny Holland is out there,” Kypreos said during the Headlines segment Saturday on Hockey Night in Canada. “His contract is going to expire at the end of the year. No talks at all scheduled. It appears it might go all the way to the end of the season before it gets addressed. You’ve got to put him at the top of the list.”

Some might consider that surprising. While Holland has put together an impressive resume with the Detroit Red Wings, who have won four Stanley Cups under his tenure, he has struggled to stabilize the franchise over the last few years, refusing to rebuild the franchise and signing multiple players to over-inflated deals with no-movement clauses which has set back the franchise.

Others mentioned as potential early candidates include John Ferguson, Jr., the executive director of player personnel of the Boston Bruins and former general manager of the Toronto Maple Leafs, and Pittsburgh Penguins assistant GM Bill Guerin. The Athletic’s Craig Custance adds Vegas Golden Knights’ assistant general manager Kelly McCrimmon to the list of potential candidates as well.

Seattle Officially Files Expansion Application

February 13, 2018 at 5:50 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 19 Comments

Though it took a little longer than expected, the Oak View Group based out of Seattle has officially filed its application for NHL expansion and given a $10MM down payment according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet.

The group plans on having construction completed on their KeyArena renovation project in time to have NHL hockey start in the fall of 2020, meaning the league would need to hold another expansion draft that summer. Seattle hasn’t started on a season ticket drive yet, but has the full support of mayor Jenny Durkan as she attempts to bring both NHL and NBA franchises to the city.

An expansion team in Seattle would represent the 32nd franchise in the NHL, and would likely cause some additional division re-alignment. Currently, the Central is the only division with seven teams, and Seattle doesn’t make much sense there. Though it’s not for some time, teams will begin to prepare their rosters for an eventual expansion draft as they did for the Vegas go-round. Ultimately it didn’t matter much, as the Golden Knights have been one of the league’s best teams right from the start. Seattle will try to emulate their success, though it will certainly be a difficult task.

Trade Candidate: David Perron

February 10, 2018 at 4:21 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg 1 Comment

With the trade deadline approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.

Ever since the Vegas Golden Knights were contructed, the plan had always been to build through the draft, but add a few veteran players they could move at the trade deadline. While James Neal was an obvious choice when the team selected him from Nashville Predators, no one was as confident that veteran winger David Perron would be as successful. Yet one season in, Perron is having a one of his best seasons of his career. The question now is does the team still want to trade him?

Contract

Perron is in the final season of a two-year, $7.5MM contract—$3.75MM cap hit, $3.75MM salary that he signed with the St. Louis Blues. He will be a UFA in July, and a modified no-trade clause in which he can submit three teams he doesn’t want to be traded to.

2017-18

Perron has been fantastic on the Golden Knights’ second line along with Neal and Erik Haula this season. Acquired via the expansion draft from St. Louis, the original plan had been to move him at the trade deadline, but instead, he’s made himself a key top-six player on a team that has the best record in the Western Conference. While he has just 13 goals this year, that’s still on target for his best goal-scoring season since 2013-14 when he potted 28 goals when he was with the Edmonton Oilers.

However, what makes his game stand out more than anything is his ability to move the puck. His 36 assists puts him already at 49 points with still almost a third of a season left. That already gives him more points than he’s had since that 2013-14 season in Edmonton. Add that to his clutch play in key moments, which includes four game-winning goals and he’s become too good to move.

Season Stats

48 GP, 13 goals, 36 assists, 49 points, +7 rating, 36 PIM, 89 shots, 17:42 ATOI, 48.9 CF%

Potential Suitors

At this point, almost any team might want to get a hold of Perron as a player rental for the upcoming playoffs. Even at $3.75MM, that’s a pretty good deal for a 29-year-old player having a great season. However, there is little chatter considering where the Golden Knights stand at present. General manager George McPhee has been non-committal to whether they intend to be buyers or sellers, but most believe they won’t be sellers.

Likelihood Of A Trade

Extremely unlikely. While you can never say never, Perron is a fixture for a team that looks ready to make a deep playoff run in their first-ever season, which no one predicted. With the team’s chemistry operating at peak efficiency, moving one of their key pieces could wreck their success. Once considered a trade deadline candidate, it looks like Vegas will hold onto him as their own player rental. While there has been little early indication that Vegas intends to extend Perron’s contract, that’s still a possibility as well.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Which Teams Would Have Flexibility In Another Expansion Draft?

January 29, 2018 at 6:30 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 18 Comments

Midway-through the 2017-18 NHL season, it is nearly impossible to predict what rosters could look like following the 2019-20 season, more than two years away. Trades, free agency, and much more shape teams often in ways that no one sees coming. With that said, it seems like another Expansion Draft is coming to add the league’s 32nd team, the Seattle __________, and the timeline most are suggesting is a June 2020 draft date. Like it or not, the general managers of the other 31 NHL need to be keeping that in the back of their mind with each move they make over the next two seasons.

However, it could be that some have already made decisions that could impact their roster protection plans more than two years from now. The structure of the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft will the remain the same, allowing for teams to protect seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie or eight skaters regardless of position and one goalie from being selected. The one caveat that threw more than a few teams for a loop last June was that all players with No-Movement Clauses (NMC) in their contracts had to be protected, unless the players voluntarily chose to wave them i.e. Marc-Andre Fleury. So, with that one aspect of the expansion process in mind, it is possible to look ahead at certain long-term contracts to see, assuming those players don’t waive them ahead of time, who could be locked in for protection in 2020 or which teams will have more flexibility without any such players:

Total Flexibility

Arizona Coyotes (0) – The only NMC players on the Coyotes are defensemen Alex Goligoski and Niklas Hjalmarsson. Hjalmarsson will be a free agent in the summer of the projected Expansion Draft and Goligoski’s clause will have shifted to a Modified No-Trade Clause. Arizona will likely have complete flexibility.

Buffalo Sabres (0) – Kyle Okposo’s NMC expires after this season and Jason Pominville’s contract expires after next season. Buffalo won’t have any restrictions on their protection scheme as of now.

Calgary Flames (0) – There is no one on the roster with a NMC and no one that will predictably get one by the end of the 2019-20 season. Kudos to GM Brad Treliving.

Los Angeles Kings (0) – Kings’ captain Anze Kopitar in their only NMC player right now and even his clause will have shifted to No-Trade by 2020. L.A. is free and clear.

Nashville Predators (0) – GM David Poile does not seem to be a fan of NMC’s in his recent long-term deals and in the new NHL expansion era, that’s a good thing.

New Jersey Devils (0) – see Calgary Flames

New York Islanders (0) – The Andrew Ladd and Johnny Boychuk contracts already look bad for the Isles. They would be much worse if their NMC’s didn’t expire soon. With John Tavares and Josh Bailey both candidates for NMC’s should they re-sign in New York and a defense that needs a re-haul, the Islanders could lose some flexibility, but they should be fine.

Toronto Maple Leafs (0) – The Leafs have no NMC players under contract beyond 2019-20 right now. That could easily change with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander in need of extensions, but Toronto should still be in a good spot. After all, those are players that would protected regardless.

Vancouver Canucks (0) – Loui Eriksson’s NMC shifts to a No-Trade Clause following this season and will be an afterthought by 2020. It’s fortunate, as Eriksson’s tenure in Vancouver has not gone according to plan.

Vegas Golden Knights (0) – The Golden Knights didn’t sign or trade for any players with NMC’s and only drafted two – Marc-Andre Fleury and David Clarkson – who already had them and they both expire before the Knights would be set to become the NHL’s second-newest team. With that said, the current Knights’ roster will see a lot of turnover in the next two years and they may struggle to avoid NMC’s completely.

Washington Capitals (0) – GM Brian MacLellan has avoided NMC’s in any of his recent mega-deals. If he can do it again this summer in his attempt to re-sign (or replace) John Carlson, then the Caps will be in good shape for another round of expansion drafting.

Winnipeg Jets (0) – The NMC in Bryan Little’s contract will both kick in and expire between now and June 2020. The Jets should be left with a fully flexible lineup.

Some Flexibility

Boston Bruins (2) – There’s little concern that Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron will still be playing at a high level in two years. Their NMC’s should be a non-factor for Boston. If David Krejci and, especially, David Backes still had their NMC’s too at that time, there would be a real logjam up front. However, both will have shifted to Modified No-Trade Clauses by then, potentially saving the Bruins from making tough decisions about their many talented young forwards.

Carolina Hurricanes (1) – As important a job as he’s had in Carolina, Jordan Staal will never be the star forward that finally puts them over the top. If his NMC causes a problem in 2020, he could easily be traded to a contender to play a complementary role. The Hurricanes need to retain as many promising young forward assets as they can in hopes of one day finding that true superstar.

Colorado Avalanche (1) – There are mixed opinions on Erik Johnson, but he has a leadership role for the Avalanche and will be key in grooming a strong crop of up-and-coming defensive prospects. The Avs won’t lose sleep about having to protect him in expansion, especially if he’s still one of their top-pairing guys in two years.

Columbus Blue Jackets (1) – The Blue Jackets were one of the biggest losers in the most recent Expansion Draft. They might be smart to sell off Nick Foligno if there’s any risk that history repeats itself.

Dallas Stars (3) – Call it optimism about his play in his first season in Dallas, but the NMC for Alexander Radulov doesn’t seem like it will be a major issue even after a couple more years. Of course, Jamie Benn’s NMC will also be a non-factor. Ben Bishop on the other hand may not be the goalie the Stars would prefer to keep in two years. As of now, there’s no immediate competition though.

Detroit Red Wings (1) – Detroit only has one NMC player who will still be under contract in 2020-21 (and another season after that), but it’s Frans Nielsen, who has been a major disappointment for the team since coming over from the New York Islanders. He could throw a wrench in their plans if he continues his downward trend over the next two seasons.

Minnesota Wild (2) – The Ryan Suter and Zach Parise mega-deals will still be making an impact in 2020, but with most of the core locked up throughout that season and no other NMC contract likely on their way, Minnesota should be okay in the Expansion Draft.

Montreal Canadiens (2) – Even if the Canadiens continue to struggle through two more seasons, there will be few Habs fans that blame superstar goalie Carey Price. His NMC won’t be an issue because the team would never dream of leaving him exposed. Jeff Petry on the other hand could be a problem. Luckily (?), it doesn’t look like Montreal will have many defenders worth protecting even in the next couple of seasons.

Ottawa Senators (2) – Some things never change. The NMC’s for Bobby Ryan and Dion Phaneuf were problems for the Senators in this past Expansion Draft and they’ll likely be problems again next time around. If Phaneuf is traded between now and then, that alleviates some concern for Ottawa. Good luck moving the Ryan contract though.

Philadelphia Flyers (1) – Only Claude Giroux has and predictably will have an NMC come June 2020. That’s a pretty safe situation for Philly.

San Jose Sharks (1) – Marc-Edouard Vlasic plays a confident, stay-at-home defensive game that often ages nicely. He looks to be the only NMC in San Jose in 2020, which shouldn’t cause a stir.

St. Louis Blues (1) – Patrik Berglund will be on the wrong side of 30 and still under a NMC when the potential 2020 draft rolls around, but with the rest of their core signed long-term without NMC’s, the Blues should be pretty safe.

Tampa Bay Lightning (2) – Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman may be the two safest NMC contracts in the NHL. Fortunately, Ryan Callahan’s otherwise-problematic NMC expires just prior to projected 2020 Expansion Draft.

Little Flexibility

Anaheim Ducks (3) – Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, and Ryan Kesler will all be 35+ and still be NMC-protected in 2020. That’s a large chunk of your protected forwards to dedicate to players in the twilight of their careers. Some up-and-coming young talent could leave Anaheim again in this next Expansion Draft a la Shea Theodore.

Chicago Blackhawks (4) – The downside to signing all of your core players to long contracts with NMC’s could hit the Blackhawks hard in the next Expansion Draft. Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews will be well past 30 and Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith will be in their mid-to-late 30’s during the 2020-21 season, but all four will need to be protected ahead of that season, which could force other promising younger players out of Chicago’s protection scheme. At least they’ll narrowly avoid having an issue in net with Corey Crawford’s contract expiring prior.

Edmonton Oilers (2) – Milan Lucic and Kris Russell. Each two years older than they are now. Those aren’t exactly players that a team wants to be forced to keep. It’s foreseeable that one or both could have a negative impact on the team’s protection plan.

Florida Panthers (3) – The Panthers probably won’t mind having three players locked up come Expansion 2.0. The team knew what they were doing when they signed Keith Yandle long-term. Even in his mid-30’s, Yandle will be a reliable player and a leader for the young Florida defensive core. Sure, they considered asking him to waive his NMC this past June, but they never actually did. Yandle won’t be a major issue in two years unless his play falls off considerably. There should be no concern whatsoever over Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov, whose NMC’s kick in later on in their contracts. The same might not be true about Evgeni Dadonov, whose been somewhat underwhelming so far in Florida, but luckily his contract runs out just prior the probable draft date.

New York Rangers (4) – Although they will have near total control over their forwards, outside of Mika Zibanejad, the Rangers could be in a tough position with their protection schemes in net and on the blue line in 2020. Then-38-year-old Henrik Lundqvist will require protection, as will underachieving defensemen Kevin Shattenkirk and Marc Staal. New York is apparently readying themselves for somewhat of a rebuild, which could mean some of those players are traded beforehand. Otherwise New York could face quite the dilemma.

Pittsburgh Penguins (4) – It seems unlikely, even years from now and in their mid-30’s, that the NMC’s for Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, or Phil Kessel would cause trouble for the Penguins. Injury-prone defenseman Kris Letang could be different though. Being forced to protect him after another two seasons of hard minutes could be difficult to swallow. Pittsburgh also has some work to do filling out the forward corps between now and 2020. GM Jim Rutherford would be well-served to avoid acquiring or handing out any further NMC’s.

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