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Finding A Match For A Duncan Keith Trade

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Yesterday, a report from Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman indicated that the Blackhawks are working with defenseman Duncan Keith on a trade that would send him to either the Pacific Northwest or Western Canada.  The move is speculated to be for family reasons which would explain the specific geographical region where he’d waive his no-move clause to go to.  With that in mind, let’s look at the potential fit for each of those teams to take on the final two years of his deal ($5.538MM both years but just $3.6MM in total salary combined).

Vancouver – With Alex Edler set to become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the month, there is a potential spot for Keith to step into if Edler doesn’t re-sign while it would shift Nate Schmidt back to his off-side.  Although the Canucks don’t have the cap space to absorb Keith’s contract outright, they have some expiring contracts (Loui Eriksson, Jay Beagle, and Antoine Roussel) that could be used as offsets to make the money work this year.  He’d also be a mentor for top youngster Quinn Hughes.

However, bringing in Keith would also put another roadblock in place for two of their young left-shot blueliners in Olli Juolevi and Jack Rathbone.  Juolevi was able to carve out a limited role last season but more is expected from the fifth overall pick in 2016.  As for Rathbone, he didn’t look out of place in a late-season stint and could be in the mix for a full-time spot in training camp.  Developing some cost-controlled assets will help offset the big money owed to Hughes and Elias Pettersson this summer and Brock Boeser next summer.

It’s potentially for those reasons that they don’t appear to be interested in acquiring Keith at the moment.  There are ways to make the money work for 2021-22 but 2022-23 could be a lot trickier and if they want to let Juolevi and Rathbone see some more NHL action, adding Keith would make that more difficult.

Edmonton – The early indications are that Oscar Klefbom ($4.167MM) may not be ready to return at the start of next season so he could be heading for LTIR once again.  Last fall, they used that money on Tyson Barrie but they could have to go in a different direction if Barrie prices himself out of what the Oilers can afford.  Theoretically, Keith could fill that same role next year although if Klefbom can return later in the year, that would complicate things.

Behind Darnell Nurse, there are few proven options on the left side of Edmonton’s back end.  Caleb Jones and William Lagesson have both had their ups and downs to this point in their young careers while Kris Russell is a third-pairing role player at best.  Dmitry Kulikov and Slater Koekkoek will both become unrestricted free agents later this month as well.  They have high hopes for Philip Broberg, the eighth pick back in 2019, but he probably isn’t ready to step into a top-four role either.  Keith could presumably serve as the bridge player for Broberg.

Edmonton also has some pricey contracts that could be moved to offset money.  Winger James Neal has two years left at $5.75MM, nearly the same as Keith while goaltender Mikko Koskinen has one year at $4.5MM remaining.  Both are buyout candidates as a result and could be included to balance the cap.  With the state of their back end, a veteran that can play on the left side of the second pairing could be a useful pickup and Keith could conceivably fill that role.

Calgary – At first glance, there doesn’t appear to be a great fit.  The Flames have their top four defenders signed for next year at a cost of $20.75MM.  While Keith on the third pairing would certainly improve their depth, paying more than $5MM for the privilege is something they can’t realistically afford.

However, expansion is looming and Calgary appears to be a team that will need to protect seven forwards which means one of their top four blueliners – likely Mark Giordano – will be left exposed to Seattle.  It wouldn’t be surprising at all to see the Kraken take on the final year of Giordano’s contract which would create an opening in the top four and $6.75MM in cap space.  That could be an opening for Keith but otherwise, the Flames shouldn’t be the landing spot.

Seattle – For the Kraken to pick him in expansion, Keith would first have to waive his no-move clause.  Considering his apparent desire to be in the Pacific Northwest, that shouldn’t be an issue.  What will be trickier is finding the fit for a trade.  Does Seattle want to take on that contract outright or are they going to want some sort of sweetener or salary offset?  The latter can’t really happen until after the expansion draft when they’ll have players to trade which would take picking him off the table.

Those small logistics aside, Keith would certainly be an intriguing fit for an expansion team.  There’s a chance he’d wind up in a bigger role than he should have (he turns 38 later this month) but he’s also someone that would potentially be their inaugural captain and help shepherd their roster through what will certainly be an interesting first couple of years.  If they take a defenseman with their second-overall pick this month and put him on the NHL roster, Keith would work as a good mentor as well.  Generally, players that old don’t make sense for a new team but there’s a fit here.

With such a narrow window of teams to work with (Winnipeg is too far East to qualify as part of Western Canada), Chicago and Keith’s camp will have their work cut out for them.  Of the four, Edmonton may be the best fit before expansion while Calgary could become an option after that depending on what happens.  And with their clean cap situation, Seattle could be in the mix at any time as well.  There are options but likely not enough for the Blackhawks to bring in any sort of sizable return for the 16-year veteran.

Negotiation Notes: Larsson, Andersen, Makar, Canucks

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After locking up Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to a long-term deal earlier today, the Edmonton Oilers will next turn their attention to reaching a new deal with defenseman Adam Larsson. According to TSN’s Darren Dreger in the latest edition of “Insider Trading“, that is more of a “when” than an “if” at the is point. Dreger states that the two sides are already close to a new deal and “in the final stretch” of negotiations. He expects that an extension will be reached soon. For Expansion Draft purposes, soon may not be until later next month, but a handshake agreement will do in the meantime. Larsson, 28, is one of the more stable defensemen in the NHL. If the defensive-minded right-shooter hit the open market, he would draw plenty of attention, but like Nugent-Hopkins, Larsson appears willing to settle on a deal to keep him in Edmonton with reigning Hart Trophy winners Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. So really, with RNH signed and Larsson not far behind, the Oilers may actually be focusing on external negotiations already, as Dreger notes they must add a goalie and complementary scoring forwards this summer.

  • It may come as a surprise following a career-worst season, but there is mutual interest in an extension between the Toronto Maple Leafs and goaltender Frederik Andersen. TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports that agent Claude Lemieux recently met with the Maple Leafs’ brass and both sides expressed interest in a new deal, perhaps to the surprise of both. Andersen is likely not keen to enter the open market after a down year (and really many years of slow decline) when he could instead stay in familiar territory in Toronto. The Leafs also need a netminder this off-season and may be content to stick with Andersen, despite his struggles, given the play of Jack Campbell this season. LeBrun does point out that Toronto has told Andersen’s camp that he would be sharing the net with Campbell, potentially even starting out at less than 50% of starts, but Andersen is reportedly open to that arrangement.
  • Every year there is the threat of offer sheets and every year it never happens, but LeBrun notes that rumblings around the league are that Colorado Avalanche star Cale Makar could be the prime candidate this summer. With the Avalanche needing to extend the First Team All-Star as well as captain Gabriel Landeskog, starting goaltender Philipp Grubauer, and top-six forward Brandon Saad, all while saving room to extend superstar Nathan MacKinnon and replace several impending UFA’s next summer, cap space is tight in Denver. If another team swooped in with an offer that Makar couldn’t refuse, it might just be too much of a handicap for the Avs. Doubtful, but possible. Colorado can eliminate the risk of an offer sheet to their young phenom if they can lock Makar up before the market opens on July 28.
  • The Vancouver Canucks are already hard at work on extension for arguably their two most important players, defenseman Quinn Hughes and center Elias Pettersson. The pair of restricted free agents are centerpiece players for the Canucks and the team will whatever it takes to keep them around as long as possible. Dreger notes that GM Jim Benning and company are meeting again this week with agents from CAA Sports, who represent both young stars. A number of possibilities are on the table for both players, including a three-year bridge deal for Pettersson in the same vein as the recent contracts of Mathew Barzal and Brayden Point. However, it seems like long-term is the ideal goal. Pettersson is reportedly open to a long-term deal like that of Mikko Rantanen, while Hughes has explored contracts with terms between four and six years.

Connor McDavid Named Hart Trophy, Ted Lindsay Award Winner

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Everyone agrees, Connor McDavid is the best. The Edmonton Oilers superstar has won the 2020-21 Hart Trophy as the NHL’s most valuable player, as well as the Ted Lindsay Award as the game’s best player as voted on by the players. This is McDavid’s second Hart and third Lindsay to go with his third Art Ross Trophy earned this season as the league’s top scorer.

Really though, everyone agrees. McDavid was a unanimous selection for the Hart Trophy, receiving all 100 first-place votes from the Professional Hockey Writers Association. He joins Wayne Gretzky as the only players to have ever won the award unanimously. McDavid made it hard for the writers, or his peers in the league, to vote otherwise with an unfathomable 105 points in just 56 games. It is no question that he was the most valuable player in the league, contributing to 57% of Edmonton’s top-ten goal total, but it also very hard to argue that anyone was more objectively “outstanding”, as the players voted.

The leading second-place vote-getter for the Hart was Toronto’s Auston Matthews, followed by Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon, Pittsburgh’s Sidney Crosby, and Boston’s Brad Marchand. As for Ted Lindsay polling, the results were not revealed to the public, but McDavid topped finalists Crosby and Matthews for the honor.

McDavid received both awards virtually from teammate Leon Draisaitl, who won both himself last season.

Edmonton Oilers Re-Sign Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

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The Edmonton Oilers have worked things out with one of their key unrestricted free agents, signing Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to a new eight-year contract. The deal will total $41MM, meaning Nugent-Hopkins will actually see his cap hit decrease to $5.125MM for 2021-22 and beyond. The deal also includes a full no-movement clause, meaning the Oilers will be required to protected Nugent-Hopkins in the expansion draft. Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic tweets out the full breakdown:

  • 2021-22: $5.0MM salary
  • 2022-23: $5.25MM salary
  • 2023-24: $6.25MM salary
  • 2024-25: $6.25MM salary
  • 2025-26: $4.0MM salary + $2.0MM signing bonus
  • 2026-27: $2.25MM salary + $2.5MM signing bonus
  • 2027-28: $2.5MM salary + $1.25MM signing bonus
  • 2028-29: $ 3.75MM salary

There was an obvious compromise in these negotiations, with the Oilers handing out a maximum-term contract in exchange for a smaller cap hit. There’s no doubt that Nugent-Hopkins could have secured a higher AAV on the open market, but with a deal like this, he’ll be able to spend most, if not all of his career in Edmonton.

The 28-year-old forward was the first-overall pick in 2011, selected just ahead of Gabriel Landeskog and Jonathan Huberdeau in what has turned out to be quite the impressive draft class. While other names like Nikita Kucherov and Johnny Gaudreau from outside the first round have found a little more success, it’s certainly not like Nugent-Hopkins was a bust. In 656 NHL games, all played with the Oilers, he has scored 185 goals and registered 478 points. A 20-goal, 60-point season has become routine, even if his ceiling has never been as high as some hoped.

Of course, it’s the lack of playoff success that will haunt everyone in Edmonton if this group can’t make significant progress in the next few years. In his decade with the team, Nugent-Hopkins has played in just 21 postseason games, and four of those came in last year’s bubble qualification round. He has just three goals in those 21 matches and has won just a single round.

That’s exactly why the lowered AAV was a desirable outcome for the Oilers, even if it does take Nugent-Hopkins deep into his thirties. The Oilers need to immediately surround Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl with as much talent as they can, something that will be a little easier now. Nugent-Hopkins’ last contract carried a cap hit of $6MM over seven seasons, meaning even the total of this one is slightly lower.

Overall, it’s a nice contract for both parties and will likely keep one of the team’s key forwards in Edmonton for the better part of his career. Oilers GM Ken Holland now has several other extensions to work on, including pending UFA defenseman Adam Larsson.

Ryan Rishaug of TSN broke the details of the contract earlier today. 

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Snapshots: Eichel, Devils, HHOF

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When reports surfaced about Jack Eichel’s potential availability this summer, the first team that came to many minds was the New York Rangers. The Rangers have enough young assets to land the Buffalo Sabres center and are now focused on making the playoffs after a short rebuild. Today, Larry Brooks of the New York Post writes that the Rangers have had preliminary talks with the Sabres about Eichel and that the asking price is currently “four pieces that would be equivalent of first-rounders.” The Sabres have also, according to Brooks, not yet granted any medical record access to interested teams.

Obviously, an asking price isn’t necessarily indicative of what will eventually land a player in trade talks, but that report from Brooks shows just how high the Sabres are setting their sights in this negotiation. The team is dealing with a distressed asset, as Eichel has expressed frustration with the team over a difference in medical opinions, but will still not simply give him away. The biggest question mark surrounding the $10MM center is the health of his neck, which still may require surgery this offseason. Eventually, teams will have to get their hands on his medical records and determine how much risk is involved in an acquisition beyond just his recent on-ice struggles.

  • The New Jersey Devils are in the market for a young defenseman and would consider trading the fourth-overall pick, according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet. The Devils have selected in the top ten three times in the last few years, taking Nico Hischier (first overall, 2017), Jack Hughes (first, 2019), and Alexander Holtz (seventh, 2020) in the early part of the first round. Perhaps that makes this year’s pick a little more expendable, especially with the uncertainty surrounding the 2021 class. Any trade that happens in the next few weeks has expansion draft implications, but as we examined recently, the Devils have a real opportunity to add defensemen with no risk of losing them to the Seattle Kraken.
  • The Hockey Hall of Fame is preparing to move forward with its 2020-21 induction ceremony on November 15th, though the actual event will be moved to a new venue. Ken Holland, Jarome Iginla, Kim St-Pierre, Marian Hossa, Kevin Lowe, and Doug Wilson were announced as the class of 2020 last year, but because of COVID-related closures, were never actually inducted. The HHOF decided not to induct a new class for 2021 but will return to its normal voting procedure for next year.

Offseason Checklist: Edmonton Oilers

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The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league missing the playoffs and several more having since been eliminated.  It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Edmonton.

Things were looking up for the Oilers during the regular season.  Their offensive stars were carrying the load offensively, the defense was holding up despite missing Oscar Klefbom, and Mike Smith had his best season in nearly a decade.  Unfortunately for Edmonton, that all meant nothing in the playoffs as they were swept by Winnipeg.  Now GM Ken Holland enters the summer with plenty to accomplish as he looks to retain some key players and add some much-needed improvements to his roster.

Upgrade The Bottom Six

By the time Holland takes care of re-signing or replacing his notable free agents (more on them shortly), there won’t be much in the way of cap space to work with so adding a significant piece to the core is unlikely.  However, Edmonton’s bottom-six depth has been poor in recent years, largely consisting of overpaid veterans, underachieving role players, or international flyers that didn’t really pan out.

Last fall, the market showed that there were some bargains to be had in terms of adding capable veterans for close to the league minimum.  With the market basically the same as it was a year ago with many teams having limited wiggle room, those players will be in demand again so it’s a good thing the Oilers can dangle the opportunity of playing on the same team as Connor McDavid; that has to count for something.  While retaining some of the existing depth makes sense (such as the recent re-signing of Devin Shore), Holland would be wise to keep some cap and roster room available to upgrade their forward depth.

Address The Goaltending

After a strong season that hardly anyone saw coming, Smith is set to return to the UFA market in a much better situation.  Back in the fall, he was effectively Edmonton’s fallback plan with his return coming after other avenues were tried first.  Given his age (39), that certainly could happen again as Holland needs to look for a longer-term fit.  Their prospects aren’t ready to step into the number one role and probably won’t be a year from now.  Is it justifiable to bring him back knowing that they’d only be delaying addressing a problem that has been around for a while?  It all depends on whether or not recent history repeats itself.  If they can’t find a longer-term option on the free agent or trade markets, Smith’s return would go over better than it did in October but considering he has the second-best save percentage among UFA goalies, it might cost more than a $1.5MM base salary and $500K in bonuses to get something done.

In the meantime, Mikko Koskinen still has one year at $4.5MM remaining on his contract that is probably going to be best remembered for former GM Peter Chiarelli being fired two days after agreeing to that deal.  He’s coming off a tough year and while he shows flashes of being a capable goaltender, he has also been wildly inconsistent to the point where it will be difficult to rely on him.  Alex Stalock is a much more affordable backup but he didn’t play this season after developing a heart issue following a bout with COVID-19.  Can he be counted on to play at an NHL level after being off for so long?

There are several questions that need to be answered here from the starter to the backup but that’s basically par for the course in recent years.

Re-Sign Or Replace Key Veterans

Part of the reason that Edmonton has a little more than $20MM in cap space is that they have several key players that are set to hit the open market.  Those players will either need to be re-signed or replaced.

At the top of the list is Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.  The 28-year-old has spent the past 10 seasons with Edmonton and while he never turned into a star player that his first-overall draft status would suggest, he has been an important player for the Oilers throughout his tenure.  Nugent-Hopkins spent most of his career down the middle although he has spent more time on the wing in recent years in an effort to give him more playing time and he responded with career years in 2018-19 and 2019-20.  Contract talks broke off a little while back but have since resumed.  Even in this marketplace, it seems likely that Nugent-Hopkins will wind up with a price tag that is similar to the $6MM AAV he has had for the past seven years.

Meanwhile, a pair of notable blueliners are set to hit the open market as well.  Tyson Barrie’s decision to take a bit less to go to Edmonton certainly paid off as he led all NHL rearguards in scoring with 48 points in 56 games which was a nice rebound from a tough year in Toronto in 2019-20.  However, he was signed with Oscar Klefbom’s money knowing that he was out for the season.  That determination hasn’t been made yet for Klefbom for next season so if they enter free agency thinking that he will be on the books, they will be hard-pressed to afford Barrie at what should be a decent-sized raise from his $3.75MM salary this season.

The other defenseman of note is Adam Larsson.  While he never emerged as the top-pairing player Edmonton was hoping for when they moved Taylor Hall for him, the 28-year-old nonetheless has become a strong stay-at-home defender who can comfortably play on the second pairing.  His limited offense will cap his earnings upside and he may not be able to reach the $4.166MM AAV he had on this deal but it should be somewhat close.  Discussions on that front are set to resume soon.

Re-signing these three (or even two of them if they think Klefbom could return) will take up most of their remaining cap room and if they don’t return, Holland will have to act quickly to find replacements.

Buyout Decisions

If Edmonton wants to free up some extra wiggle room this summer, they have a pair of players who could be plausible buyout candidates.  Koskinen is one of them and doing so would save them $3MM in cap space for next season (while adding $1.5MM to the books for 2022-23).

The other option is winger James Neal.  The veteran had just five goals and five assists in 29 games which is hardly an optimal return on a $5.75MM cap hit.  With two years left on his contract, buying him out would have the 33-year-old on the books for four more years at $1.917MM but in the short term, it’d save them more than $3.8MM for the next two years.  They can find a replacement for considerably less than that, giving them some extra flexibility this summer.

While it would add more money to the books down the road, they also have just seven players signed beyond 2021-22 and four past 2022-23.  That can be worked around and the short-term benefits of the move will certainly be tempting for Holland.  The window to go this route starts after the Stanley Cup Final although, with expansion also on the horizon, a lot of the buyouts may come after Seattle picks their team.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Adam Larsson Contract Negotiations With Edmonton Oilers Resuming This Week

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While the Edmonton Oilers have much bigger free-agent fish to fry, there seems to be some life in their contract negotiations with defender Adam Larsson. The Fourth Period’s Dave Pagnotta reports that the Oilers and Larsson’s agent are to resume talks this week.

Larsson, of ’the trade is one-for-one’ fame, was an understated piece of the Oilers’ defense this season. After being plagued by injury in 2019-20, Larsson stepped up in a big way to help offset Edmonton’s loss of Oscar Klefbom. His 128 blocks this year were the same amount he had in a full 82-game season in 2018-19, while he ramped up his offensive production to four goals and 10 points. Talks about his extension first surfaced in May, where Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported a four-year deal was a likely outcome. It goes without saying that Edmonton would love to retain the 28-year-old Swede.

Oilers Forward Gaetan Haas Signs In Switzerland

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Edmonton center Gaetan Haas has decided to head back home.  After spending the last two years with the Oilers, EHC Biel-Bienne of the Swiss NLA announced that they’ve signed Haas to a five-year contract.

The 29-year-old decided to try his hand in North America in 2019 following a pair of strong offensive seasons with SC Bern in Switzerland.  However, while Haas was a capable checker in Edmonton, he didn’t produce much offensively in his first NHL season, notching just five goals and five assists in 58 games.  Still, he did enough to earn a second chance, inking a one-year, $915K one-way contract back in April.

But things didn’t go any better this past season.  While he got to spend some time in Bern where his offensive production returned, it failed to carry over when he returned to Edmonton.  As a result, he managed only two goals and one assist in 34 games in 2020-21 despite averaging over 11 minutes a game in ice time.

While Haas could have returned to the open market and tried his hand at catching on somewhere else, this seems like the wiser course of action for him as he now returns to his hometown team.  In the meantime, the Oilers will be looking for cheap depth to round out their roster and could look to free agency to find a replacement although Ryan McLeod has certainly made a case for a full-time roster spot next season and could slide into Haas’ role to start with an eye on quickly moving up the depth chart.

2021 Hart Trophy Finalists Announced

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It’s time for the big one. The NHL has announced the finalists for the Hart Trophy, given annually to the “player judged most valuable to his team.” Last year’s winner, Leon Draisaitl, also took home the Ted Lindsay and the Art Ross in an impressive trifecta.

This year’s finalists are Connor McDavid of the Edmonton Oilers, Auston Matthews of the Toronto Maple Leafs, and Nathan MacKinnon of the Colorado Avalanche.

McDavid could complete the same trifecta his teammate did a year ago, after completing one of the most impressive regular seasons in recent history. The Oilers captain scored 105 points in 56 games, a scoring rate that put him in rare company. Since 1980-81, 40 years ago, only Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, Steve Yzerman, Bernie Nicholls, and Adam Oates have finished with a higher point/game rate over a full season. Each of the last three names on that list only did it once, and each were just barely ahead of the best offensive player in today’s game. There was absolutely no doubt that McDavid would be a finalist for the third time in his career. He previously took home the Hart in 2016-17, his sophomore year.

Matthews is a first-time finalist after winning the Rocket Richard trophy as the league’s top goal scorer. Amazingly, he had an eight-goal lead over second-place McDavid despite playing in four fewer games. Matthews was a scoring marvel this season, totaling 41 in 52 games for the Maple Leafs continuing to develop his strong defensive game. He was actually tied for fifth in points, but still 39 behind McDavid’s 105.

MacKinnon, the oldest of the three at age-25, is a Hart finalist for the third time in his career. Always a bridesmaid though, the Avalanche star has finished second in his first two runs at the award. Unfortunately–for MacKinnon and hockey fans–he played in just 48 games this season so his point total of 65 put him in the eighth spot league-wide. On a per-game basis though he trailed only McDavid, Draisaitl, and New York Rangers forward Artemi Panarin. Even if MacKinnon becomes a runner-up again, it would be hard to find someone who disagreed with his placement as one of the very best players in the entire world.

Oilers Re-Sign Devin Shore

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The Oilers have taken care of one of their pending restricted free agents as they announced the re-signing of forward Devin Shore to a two-year contract.  The deal carries an AAV of $850K with CapFriendly clarifying (Twitter link) that he will make the league minimum of $750K next season and $950K in 2022-23.

The 26-year-old was non-tendered last fall by Columbus and had to settle for a PTO deal with Edmonton in late December, one that he was able to convert to a two-way contract.  Shore wound up spending most of the season with the Oilers, getting into 38 games where he had five goals and four assists.  While he did clear waivers a couple of times as Edmonton shuffled several veterans back and forth from their taxi squad, he clearly made enough of an impression to stick around, earning himself a one-way deal in the process.

Shore spent most of this past season in a depth role, often playing on the fourth line when he was in the lineup and it stands to reason that he’ll have a similar role throughout this contract.  The Oilers, like many teams, will be relying on cheap depth to free up a little bit of wiggle room on the salary cap and that will allow Shore to stick around for a couple more years.

GM Ken Holland still has plenty of work to get to before free agency begins.  He has a trio of other restricted free agents to re-sign while 11 others will soon see their contracts expire as pending unrestricted free agents so there should be several signings to come over the coming weeks.

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