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Latest On Duncan Keith

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Duncan Keith trade rumors have been swirling ever since Wednesday. Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet’s original report stated that Keith, who has a full no-movement clause in his contract, preferred to be dealt to either Western Canada or the Pacific Northwest. The story has only gained more specific details since then. It’s since been reported that the Edmonton Oilers and Seattle Kraken were Keith’s preferred destinations, but today, there’s been a lot of discussion on the Oilers’ side of the coin.

Now, a report by The Athletic’s Daniel Nugent-Bowman is suggesting that Edmonton may only pull the trigger on a potential deal if certain conditions are met. Considering the Oilers and general manager Ken Holland’s goal of being in ’win-now’ mode, Keith’s steep $5.5MM cap hit is a complicating factor in any potential deal. So while Chicago won’t be giving him away for peanuts, for Edmonton to swing a deal, the cap differential needs to be close to even when all is said and done.

How that happens isn’t entirely clear. There’s a nearly endless combination of assets in play that could make a deal work here. James Neal’s contract is similarly an albatross, and could get moved the other way with a couple of other pieces packaged in. Earlier reports today suggested that Caleb Jones could be part of a package to Chicago for Keith. Regardless, and especially if Jones is the centerpiece of a deal, Chicago will likely have to retain some amount of salary in a Keith trade. While Chicago is looking to contend sooner rather than later as well, one or even two million dollars against the cap in a retained salary transaction likely won’t be the end of the world.

It’s obvious the Blackhawks want to do right by Keith, who’s given more than anyone could’ve asked for to the franchise. But considering the 37-year-old’s restrictive demands, Chicago’s hands may end up being tied if they can’t get the return they desire — which is to say, a trade, while likely, is never a guarantee.

All contract information is provided by CapFriendly.

 

Snapshots: Jones, Flames, Ducharme

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As speculation around the now-constant Duncan Keith trade rumors intensifies, more clarity is coming around a potential return. A piece in the Edmonton Journal by David Staples starts off the party with the Edmonton Oilers. Jumping off earlier reports from both Elliotte Friedman and Bob Stauffer that the Chicago Blackhawks weren’t interested in taking on another big contract in exchange for Keith, Staples suggests defender Caleb Jones as a potential piece going to Chicago in exchange for Keith. With Chicago now being implicated in trade talks with Columbus Blue Jackets defender Seth Jones, playing with his brother may entice Seth to sign an extension if dealt to the Hawks. What is for sure is that it’s just the beginning of the inevitable rumors and speculation surrounding such big a name as Keith. As Chicago looks to move on from a franchise legend, what Chicago receives in return for Keith will be under intense scrutiny.

  • The Athletic’s Rick Dhaliwal, during his ’Donnie & Dhali’ radio show today, reports that the Calgary Flames weren’t identified by Keith or his agent as a potential trade destination. With captain Mark Giordano potentially being left unprotected for the Seattle expansion draft, it made sense that Calgary could be looking to acquire a veteran presence to replace Giordano on their blueline. However, considering the leverage Keith holds with his full no-movement clause, it appears as though Keith in a Flames uniform isn’t a true possibility come October.
  • Marc Antoine Godin, senior writer for The Athletic Montreal, relayed remarks made by Montreal Canadiens head coach Dominique Ducharme today ahead of his return to the bench for Game 3 after being sidelined for two weeks due to COVID-19. Reacting to the news that the Quebec provincial health authority would not allow more fans into the building, Ducharme commented that “it’s hard to find the logic” for not increasing the capacity from the existing 3,500 fans, especially due to the large crowds that have formed outside in recent games. It’ll be on Ducharme tonight to guide his team to a Game 3 win, despite the supposed lack of a true home-ice advantage.

Expansion Primer: Edmonton Oilers

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

Back in 2017, the Oilers lost a young defenseman to Vegas in expansion in Griffin Reinhart.  The fact they lost him wasn’t a big deal – he only played one game for the Oilers in 2016-17 and never played a game for the Golden Knights; he played in Germany this season – but it provided a harsh reminder of what they gave up to get him in 2015 first and second-round picks.  (The first-rounder became Mathew Barzal and the second-rounder turned into Mitchell Stephens.)  This time around, they may very find themselves losing a young defenseman once again.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Josh Archibald, Tyler Benson, Leon Draisaitl, Seth Griffith, Dominik Kahun, Zack Kassian, Jujhar Khaira, Cooper Marody, Connor McDavid, James Neal, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jesse Puljujarvi, Devin Shore, Anton Slepyshev, Kyle Turris, Bogdan Yakimov, Kailer Yamamoto

Defense:
Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones, Oscar Klefbom, William Lagesson, Darnell Nurse, Kris Russell

Goalies:
Mikko Koskinen, Alex Stalock, Stuart Skinner, Dylan Wells

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

D Tyson Barrie, F Alex Chiasson, F Tyler Ennis, D Slater Koekkoek, D Dmitry Kulikov, D Adam Larsson, G Mike Smith

Notable Exemptions

D Evan Bouchard, D Philip Broberg, F Ryan McLeod, D Dmitri Samorukov

Key Decisions

The first key decision was made earlier this week when they re-signed Nugent-Hopkins.  Had they not done so, it was possible that they could have gone with the eight-skater route, allowing them to protect an extra defenseman.  That won’t be the case now as he joins McDavid, Draisaitl, Yamamoto, and Puljujarvi as sure-fire protectees.

There are quite a few candidates for those last two spots.  A year ago, it felt like Kassian was going to be in that guaranteed protected list.  He had just signed a four-year deal and was coming off a career year offensively; it felt like he was finally becoming the type of power forward that he was expected to when he was a first-round pick in 2009.  Then 2020-21 happened.  He had two significant injuries that cost him half the season and when he was in the lineup, he wasn’t particularly productive as he managed just two goals in 27 games.  His contract has gone from market value to an overpayment in a hurry and as a result, he could very well be left exposed even though when he’s on his game, he can be a difference-maker for the Oilers.

Archibald has become more of what they were hoping for from Kassian – a physical forward that can move up and down the lineup where needed and chip in with a timely goal here or there.  His scoring total dipped to just seven this season after a dozen in each of the previous two years but he’s the type of versatile player they’ll likely opt to keep around.

In terms of their other veterans, Khaira is a capable checker but a $1.3MM qualifying offer makes him a possible non-tender candidate as in this market, that’s a bit much for a fourth liner.  That uncertainty makes it difficult to think he’ll be protected.  Turris, Neal, and Shore cleared waivers and spent frequent time as healthy scratches.  It’s safe to say they’ll be exposed as well.  Kahun had a tough year after two straight years of more than 30 points which has him in the possible non-tender category as well.  If they agree on a new low-cost deal early, it could earn him a protected slot but it’s not a guarantee.

That leaves Benson, a player with seven career NHL games under his belt with none of them coming this season.  (This year, he had 36 points in 36 games with AHL Bakersfield.)  He’s now waiver-eligible and seemingly on the cusp of a roster spot.  Even if he winds up being the odd man out in training camp, he still has more upside than several of the veterans that are vying for one of the last two protected slots.

On the back end, there are two safe bets to be protected.  Nurse has become their number one defenseman while Bear’s tough season is overshadowed by a strong 2019-20 campaign.  His potential is high enough that he’ll be kept away from the Kraken.

Larsson is a pending UFA but there is mutual interest in getting a new deal in place before he hits the market.  If that was to happen in the next couple of weeks, he’d get the third spot.

Assuming that doesn’t happen (or they wait to announce until after the draft), it would appear that two young blueliners – Jones and Lagesson – will be in the mix for the final slot.  Jones’ best showing came in his rookie year in 2018-19 and he hasn’t been able to lock down a full-time spot since then.  Of the two, he has a bit more offensive upside than Lagesson, who is more of a stay-at-home defender.  Lagesson’s a year older (25 vs 24 for Jones) and doesn’t have as much NHL experience (27 games vs 93 for Jones).  Jones would appear to have the slight edge out of the two.

If Klefbom was healthy, he’d be a guaranteed protectee.  However, he missed all of this season after shoulder surgery and it doesn’t sound like he’ll be ready to start next year either.  Could Seattle pick him in the hopes of him returning to health and becoming a possible trade asset down the road?  Perhaps but that’s an expensive gamble with $9.669MM still owed in salary in the final two years of his deal.  Russell was extended during the season to meet one of the exposure criteria and nothing has changed on that front.

Unlike most teams, Edmonton’s protected spot between the pipes is uncertain.  It’s safe to say it won’t be Koskinen who may very well be bought out this month.  Stalock was claimed off waivers during the season and is signed for cheap but he didn’t play at all.  Are they prepared to make him the full-time backup next year?  If so, he could get this slot but if not, keeping a youngster makes more sense.

That should be Skinner.  He struggled in his lone NHL appearance this season but was much better with Bakersfield, posting a 2.38 GAA with a .912 SV% in 31 games.  He’s still waiver-exempt and if made available, could be intriguing to Seattle in terms of having another goalie in the system.  Wells struggled in both the AHL and ECHL this season so it’s safe to say he won’t be protected.

Having said that, if they come to terms on a new deal with Smith between now and the draft, he’ll get the protected spot.

Projected Protection List

F Josh Archibald
F Tyler Benson
F Connor McDavid
F Leon Draisaitl
F Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
F Jesse Puljujarvi
F Kailer Yamamoto

D Ethan Bear
D Caleb Jones
D Darnell Nurse

G Stuart Skinner

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (4): Zack Kassian, James Neal, Devin Shore, Kyle Turris
Defensemen (2): Oscar Klefbom, Kris Russell

The Oilers are well-positioned as things stand.  If Seattle likes one of Khaira or Kahun, it’s possible one of the pending RFAs gets selected.  Otherwise, Lagesson could be the target as a young defender with potentially a little bit of trade value or someone that can hold down the seventh or eighth spot on the back end.  Edmonton appears to be set to be one of the teams that won’t be impacted all that much when they lose a player to the Kraken.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Finding A Match For A Duncan Keith Trade

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Yesterday, a report from Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman indicated that the Blackhawks are working with defenseman Duncan Keith on a trade that would send him to either the Pacific Northwest or Western Canada.  The move is speculated to be for family reasons which would explain the specific geographical region where he’d waive his no-move clause to go to.  With that in mind, let’s look at the potential fit for each of those teams to take on the final two years of his deal ($5.538MM both years but just $3.6MM in total salary combined).

Vancouver – With Alex Edler set to become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the month, there is a potential spot for Keith to step into if Edler doesn’t re-sign while it would shift Nate Schmidt back to his off-side.  Although the Canucks don’t have the cap space to absorb Keith’s contract outright, they have some expiring contracts (Loui Eriksson, Jay Beagle, and Antoine Roussel) that could be used as offsets to make the money work this year.  He’d also be a mentor for top youngster Quinn Hughes.

However, bringing in Keith would also put another roadblock in place for two of their young left-shot blueliners in Olli Juolevi and Jack Rathbone.  Juolevi was able to carve out a limited role last season but more is expected from the fifth overall pick in 2016.  As for Rathbone, he didn’t look out of place in a late-season stint and could be in the mix for a full-time spot in training camp.  Developing some cost-controlled assets will help offset the big money owed to Hughes and Elias Pettersson this summer and Brock Boeser next summer.

It’s potentially for those reasons that they don’t appear to be interested in acquiring Keith at the moment.  There are ways to make the money work for 2021-22 but 2022-23 could be a lot trickier and if they want to let Juolevi and Rathbone see some more NHL action, adding Keith would make that more difficult.

Edmonton – The early indications are that Oscar Klefbom ($4.167MM) may not be ready to return at the start of next season so he could be heading for LTIR once again.  Last fall, they used that money on Tyson Barrie but they could have to go in a different direction if Barrie prices himself out of what the Oilers can afford.  Theoretically, Keith could fill that same role next year although if Klefbom can return later in the year, that would complicate things.

Behind Darnell Nurse, there are few proven options on the left side of Edmonton’s back end.  Caleb Jones and William Lagesson have both had their ups and downs to this point in their young careers while Kris Russell is a third-pairing role player at best.  Dmitry Kulikov and Slater Koekkoek will both become unrestricted free agents later this month as well.  They have high hopes for Philip Broberg, the eighth pick back in 2019, but he probably isn’t ready to step into a top-four role either.  Keith could presumably serve as the bridge player for Broberg.

Edmonton also has some pricey contracts that could be moved to offset money.  Winger James Neal has two years left at $5.75MM, nearly the same as Keith while goaltender Mikko Koskinen has one year at $4.5MM remaining.  Both are buyout candidates as a result and could be included to balance the cap.  With the state of their back end, a veteran that can play on the left side of the second pairing could be a useful pickup and Keith could conceivably fill that role.

Calgary – At first glance, there doesn’t appear to be a great fit.  The Flames have their top four defenders signed for next year at a cost of $20.75MM.  While Keith on the third pairing would certainly improve their depth, paying more than $5MM for the privilege is something they can’t realistically afford.

However, expansion is looming and Calgary appears to be a team that will need to protect seven forwards which means one of their top four blueliners – likely Mark Giordano – will be left exposed to Seattle.  It wouldn’t be surprising at all to see the Kraken take on the final year of Giordano’s contract which would create an opening in the top four and $6.75MM in cap space.  That could be an opening for Keith but otherwise, the Flames shouldn’t be the landing spot.

Seattle – For the Kraken to pick him in expansion, Keith would first have to waive his no-move clause.  Considering his apparent desire to be in the Pacific Northwest, that shouldn’t be an issue.  What will be trickier is finding the fit for a trade.  Does Seattle want to take on that contract outright or are they going to want some sort of sweetener or salary offset?  The latter can’t really happen until after the expansion draft when they’ll have players to trade which would take picking him off the table.

Those small logistics aside, Keith would certainly be an intriguing fit for an expansion team.  There’s a chance he’d wind up in a bigger role than he should have (he turns 38 later this month) but he’s also someone that would potentially be their inaugural captain and help shepherd their roster through what will certainly be an interesting first couple of years.  If they take a defenseman with their second-overall pick this month and put him on the NHL roster, Keith would work as a good mentor as well.  Generally, players that old don’t make sense for a new team but there’s a fit here.

With such a narrow window of teams to work with (Winnipeg is too far East to qualify as part of Western Canada), Chicago and Keith’s camp will have their work cut out for them.  Of the four, Edmonton may be the best fit before expansion while Calgary could become an option after that depending on what happens.  And with their clean cap situation, Seattle could be in the mix at any time as well.  There are options but likely not enough for the Blackhawks to bring in any sort of sizable return for the 16-year veteran.

Negotiation Notes: Larsson, Andersen, Makar, Canucks

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After locking up Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to a long-term deal earlier today, the Edmonton Oilers will next turn their attention to reaching a new deal with defenseman Adam Larsson. According to TSN’s Darren Dreger in the latest edition of “Insider Trading“, that is more of a “when” than an “if” at the is point. Dreger states that the two sides are already close to a new deal and “in the final stretch” of negotiations. He expects that an extension will be reached soon. For Expansion Draft purposes, soon may not be until later next month, but a handshake agreement will do in the meantime. Larsson, 28, is one of the more stable defensemen in the NHL. If the defensive-minded right-shooter hit the open market, he would draw plenty of attention, but like Nugent-Hopkins, Larsson appears willing to settle on a deal to keep him in Edmonton with reigning Hart Trophy winners Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. So really, with RNH signed and Larsson not far behind, the Oilers may actually be focusing on external negotiations already, as Dreger notes they must add a goalie and complementary scoring forwards this summer.

  • It may come as a surprise following a career-worst season, but there is mutual interest in an extension between the Toronto Maple Leafs and goaltender Frederik Andersen. TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports that agent Claude Lemieux recently met with the Maple Leafs’ brass and both sides expressed interest in a new deal, perhaps to the surprise of both. Andersen is likely not keen to enter the open market after a down year (and really many years of slow decline) when he could instead stay in familiar territory in Toronto. The Leafs also need a netminder this off-season and may be content to stick with Andersen, despite his struggles, given the play of Jack Campbell this season. LeBrun does point out that Toronto has told Andersen’s camp that he would be sharing the net with Campbell, potentially even starting out at less than 50% of starts, but Andersen is reportedly open to that arrangement.
  • Every year there is the threat of offer sheets and every year it never happens, but LeBrun notes that rumblings around the league are that Colorado Avalanche star Cale Makar could be the prime candidate this summer. With the Avalanche needing to extend the First Team All-Star as well as captain Gabriel Landeskog, starting goaltender Philipp Grubauer, and top-six forward Brandon Saad, all while saving room to extend superstar Nathan MacKinnon and replace several impending UFA’s next summer, cap space is tight in Denver. If another team swooped in with an offer that Makar couldn’t refuse, it might just be too much of a handicap for the Avs. Doubtful, but possible. Colorado can eliminate the risk of an offer sheet to their young phenom if they can lock Makar up before the market opens on July 28.
  • The Vancouver Canucks are already hard at work on extension for arguably their two most important players, defenseman Quinn Hughes and center Elias Pettersson. The pair of restricted free agents are centerpiece players for the Canucks and the team will whatever it takes to keep them around as long as possible. Dreger notes that GM Jim Benning and company are meeting again this week with agents from CAA Sports, who represent both young stars. A number of possibilities are on the table for both players, including a three-year bridge deal for Pettersson in the same vein as the recent contracts of Mathew Barzal and Brayden Point. However, it seems like long-term is the ideal goal. Pettersson is reportedly open to a long-term deal like that of Mikko Rantanen, while Hughes has explored contracts with terms between four and six years.

Connor McDavid Named Hart Trophy, Ted Lindsay Award Winner

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Everyone agrees, Connor McDavid is the best. The Edmonton Oilers superstar has won the 2020-21 Hart Trophy as the NHL’s most valuable player, as well as the Ted Lindsay Award as the game’s best player as voted on by the players. This is McDavid’s second Hart and third Lindsay to go with his third Art Ross Trophy earned this season as the league’s top scorer.

Really though, everyone agrees. McDavid was a unanimous selection for the Hart Trophy, receiving all 100 first-place votes from the Professional Hockey Writers Association. He joins Wayne Gretzky as the only players to have ever won the award unanimously. McDavid made it hard for the writers, or his peers in the league, to vote otherwise with an unfathomable 105 points in just 56 games. It is no question that he was the most valuable player in the league, contributing to 57% of Edmonton’s top-ten goal total, but it also very hard to argue that anyone was more objectively “outstanding”, as the players voted.

The leading second-place vote-getter for the Hart was Toronto’s Auston Matthews, followed by Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon, Pittsburgh’s Sidney Crosby, and Boston’s Brad Marchand. As for Ted Lindsay polling, the results were not revealed to the public, but McDavid topped finalists Crosby and Matthews for the honor.

McDavid received both awards virtually from teammate Leon Draisaitl, who won both himself last season.

Edmonton Oilers Re-Sign Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

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The Edmonton Oilers have worked things out with one of their key unrestricted free agents, signing Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to a new eight-year contract. The deal will total $41MM, meaning Nugent-Hopkins will actually see his cap hit decrease to $5.125MM for 2021-22 and beyond. The deal also includes a full no-movement clause, meaning the Oilers will be required to protected Nugent-Hopkins in the expansion draft. Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic tweets out the full breakdown:

  • 2021-22: $5.0MM salary
  • 2022-23: $5.25MM salary
  • 2023-24: $6.25MM salary
  • 2024-25: $6.25MM salary
  • 2025-26: $4.0MM salary + $2.0MM signing bonus
  • 2026-27: $2.25MM salary + $2.5MM signing bonus
  • 2027-28: $2.5MM salary + $1.25MM signing bonus
  • 2028-29: $ 3.75MM salary

There was an obvious compromise in these negotiations, with the Oilers handing out a maximum-term contract in exchange for a smaller cap hit. There’s no doubt that Nugent-Hopkins could have secured a higher AAV on the open market, but with a deal like this, he’ll be able to spend most, if not all of his career in Edmonton.

The 28-year-old forward was the first-overall pick in 2011, selected just ahead of Gabriel Landeskog and Jonathan Huberdeau in what has turned out to be quite the impressive draft class. While other names like Nikita Kucherov and Johnny Gaudreau from outside the first round have found a little more success, it’s certainly not like Nugent-Hopkins was a bust. In 656 NHL games, all played with the Oilers, he has scored 185 goals and registered 478 points. A 20-goal, 60-point season has become routine, even if his ceiling has never been as high as some hoped.

Of course, it’s the lack of playoff success that will haunt everyone in Edmonton if this group can’t make significant progress in the next few years. In his decade with the team, Nugent-Hopkins has played in just 21 postseason games, and four of those came in last year’s bubble qualification round. He has just three goals in those 21 matches and has won just a single round.

That’s exactly why the lowered AAV was a desirable outcome for the Oilers, even if it does take Nugent-Hopkins deep into his thirties. The Oilers need to immediately surround Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl with as much talent as they can, something that will be a little easier now. Nugent-Hopkins’ last contract carried a cap hit of $6MM over seven seasons, meaning even the total of this one is slightly lower.

Overall, it’s a nice contract for both parties and will likely keep one of the team’s key forwards in Edmonton for the better part of his career. Oilers GM Ken Holland now has several other extensions to work on, including pending UFA defenseman Adam Larsson.

Ryan Rishaug of TSN broke the details of the contract earlier today. 

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Snapshots: Eichel, Devils, HHOF

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When reports surfaced about Jack Eichel’s potential availability this summer, the first team that came to many minds was the New York Rangers. The Rangers have enough young assets to land the Buffalo Sabres center and are now focused on making the playoffs after a short rebuild. Today, Larry Brooks of the New York Post writes that the Rangers have had preliminary talks with the Sabres about Eichel and that the asking price is currently “four pieces that would be equivalent of first-rounders.” The Sabres have also, according to Brooks, not yet granted any medical record access to interested teams.

Obviously, an asking price isn’t necessarily indicative of what will eventually land a player in trade talks, but that report from Brooks shows just how high the Sabres are setting their sights in this negotiation. The team is dealing with a distressed asset, as Eichel has expressed frustration with the team over a difference in medical opinions, but will still not simply give him away. The biggest question mark surrounding the $10MM center is the health of his neck, which still may require surgery this offseason. Eventually, teams will have to get their hands on his medical records and determine how much risk is involved in an acquisition beyond just his recent on-ice struggles.

  • The New Jersey Devils are in the market for a young defenseman and would consider trading the fourth-overall pick, according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet. The Devils have selected in the top ten three times in the last few years, taking Nico Hischier (first overall, 2017), Jack Hughes (first, 2019), and Alexander Holtz (seventh, 2020) in the early part of the first round. Perhaps that makes this year’s pick a little more expendable, especially with the uncertainty surrounding the 2021 class. Any trade that happens in the next few weeks has expansion draft implications, but as we examined recently, the Devils have a real opportunity to add defensemen with no risk of losing them to the Seattle Kraken.
  • The Hockey Hall of Fame is preparing to move forward with its 2020-21 induction ceremony on November 15th, though the actual event will be moved to a new venue. Ken Holland, Jarome Iginla, Kim St-Pierre, Marian Hossa, Kevin Lowe, and Doug Wilson were announced as the class of 2020 last year, but because of COVID-related closures, were never actually inducted. The HHOF decided not to induct a new class for 2021 but will return to its normal voting procedure for next year.

Offseason Checklist: Edmonton Oilers

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The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league missing the playoffs and several more having since been eliminated.  It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Edmonton.

Things were looking up for the Oilers during the regular season.  Their offensive stars were carrying the load offensively, the defense was holding up despite missing Oscar Klefbom, and Mike Smith had his best season in nearly a decade.  Unfortunately for Edmonton, that all meant nothing in the playoffs as they were swept by Winnipeg.  Now GM Ken Holland enters the summer with plenty to accomplish as he looks to retain some key players and add some much-needed improvements to his roster.

Upgrade The Bottom Six

By the time Holland takes care of re-signing or replacing his notable free agents (more on them shortly), there won’t be much in the way of cap space to work with so adding a significant piece to the core is unlikely.  However, Edmonton’s bottom-six depth has been poor in recent years, largely consisting of overpaid veterans, underachieving role players, or international flyers that didn’t really pan out.

Last fall, the market showed that there were some bargains to be had in terms of adding capable veterans for close to the league minimum.  With the market basically the same as it was a year ago with many teams having limited wiggle room, those players will be in demand again so it’s a good thing the Oilers can dangle the opportunity of playing on the same team as Connor McDavid; that has to count for something.  While retaining some of the existing depth makes sense (such as the recent re-signing of Devin Shore), Holland would be wise to keep some cap and roster room available to upgrade their forward depth.

Address The Goaltending

After a strong season that hardly anyone saw coming, Smith is set to return to the UFA market in a much better situation.  Back in the fall, he was effectively Edmonton’s fallback plan with his return coming after other avenues were tried first.  Given his age (39), that certainly could happen again as Holland needs to look for a longer-term fit.  Their prospects aren’t ready to step into the number one role and probably won’t be a year from now.  Is it justifiable to bring him back knowing that they’d only be delaying addressing a problem that has been around for a while?  It all depends on whether or not recent history repeats itself.  If they can’t find a longer-term option on the free agent or trade markets, Smith’s return would go over better than it did in October but considering he has the second-best save percentage among UFA goalies, it might cost more than a $1.5MM base salary and $500K in bonuses to get something done.

In the meantime, Mikko Koskinen still has one year at $4.5MM remaining on his contract that is probably going to be best remembered for former GM Peter Chiarelli being fired two days after agreeing to that deal.  He’s coming off a tough year and while he shows flashes of being a capable goaltender, he has also been wildly inconsistent to the point where it will be difficult to rely on him.  Alex Stalock is a much more affordable backup but he didn’t play this season after developing a heart issue following a bout with COVID-19.  Can he be counted on to play at an NHL level after being off for so long?

There are several questions that need to be answered here from the starter to the backup but that’s basically par for the course in recent years.

Re-Sign Or Replace Key Veterans

Part of the reason that Edmonton has a little more than $20MM in cap space is that they have several key players that are set to hit the open market.  Those players will either need to be re-signed or replaced.

At the top of the list is Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.  The 28-year-old has spent the past 10 seasons with Edmonton and while he never turned into a star player that his first-overall draft status would suggest, he has been an important player for the Oilers throughout his tenure.  Nugent-Hopkins spent most of his career down the middle although he has spent more time on the wing in recent years in an effort to give him more playing time and he responded with career years in 2018-19 and 2019-20.  Contract talks broke off a little while back but have since resumed.  Even in this marketplace, it seems likely that Nugent-Hopkins will wind up with a price tag that is similar to the $6MM AAV he has had for the past seven years.

Meanwhile, a pair of notable blueliners are set to hit the open market as well.  Tyson Barrie’s decision to take a bit less to go to Edmonton certainly paid off as he led all NHL rearguards in scoring with 48 points in 56 games which was a nice rebound from a tough year in Toronto in 2019-20.  However, he was signed with Oscar Klefbom’s money knowing that he was out for the season.  That determination hasn’t been made yet for Klefbom for next season so if they enter free agency thinking that he will be on the books, they will be hard-pressed to afford Barrie at what should be a decent-sized raise from his $3.75MM salary this season.

The other defenseman of note is Adam Larsson.  While he never emerged as the top-pairing player Edmonton was hoping for when they moved Taylor Hall for him, the 28-year-old nonetheless has become a strong stay-at-home defender who can comfortably play on the second pairing.  His limited offense will cap his earnings upside and he may not be able to reach the $4.166MM AAV he had on this deal but it should be somewhat close.  Discussions on that front are set to resume soon.

Re-signing these three (or even two of them if they think Klefbom could return) will take up most of their remaining cap room and if they don’t return, Holland will have to act quickly to find replacements.

Buyout Decisions

If Edmonton wants to free up some extra wiggle room this summer, they have a pair of players who could be plausible buyout candidates.  Koskinen is one of them and doing so would save them $3MM in cap space for next season (while adding $1.5MM to the books for 2022-23).

The other option is winger James Neal.  The veteran had just five goals and five assists in 29 games which is hardly an optimal return on a $5.75MM cap hit.  With two years left on his contract, buying him out would have the 33-year-old on the books for four more years at $1.917MM but in the short term, it’d save them more than $3.8MM for the next two years.  They can find a replacement for considerably less than that, giving them some extra flexibility this summer.

While it would add more money to the books down the road, they also have just seven players signed beyond 2021-22 and four past 2022-23.  That can be worked around and the short-term benefits of the move will certainly be tempting for Holland.  The window to go this route starts after the Stanley Cup Final although, with expansion also on the horizon, a lot of the buyouts may come after Seattle picks their team.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Adam Larsson Contract Negotiations With Edmonton Oilers Resuming This Week

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While the Edmonton Oilers have much bigger free-agent fish to fry, there seems to be some life in their contract negotiations with defender Adam Larsson. The Fourth Period’s Dave Pagnotta reports that the Oilers and Larsson’s agent are to resume talks this week.

Larsson, of ’the trade is one-for-one’ fame, was an understated piece of the Oilers’ defense this season. After being plagued by injury in 2019-20, Larsson stepped up in a big way to help offset Edmonton’s loss of Oscar Klefbom. His 128 blocks this year were the same amount he had in a full 82-game season in 2018-19, while he ramped up his offensive production to four goals and 10 points. Talks about his extension first surfaced in May, where Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported a four-year deal was a likely outcome. It goes without saying that Edmonton would love to retain the 28-year-old Swede.

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