The offseason is now fully underway after Vegas took home the Stanley Cup which means that it’s time to examine what each team will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Edmonton.
As expected, the Oilers featured a high-powered offense this past season but goaltending concerns once again crept up at an inopportune time which played a role in their exit at the hands of the Golden Knights in the second round. GM Ken Holland has two years left with both Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl under contract which could represent the remaining length of their competitive window. However, while they would certainly love to add, their salary cap situation will see them needing to take away from their roster; this is a key element of their checklist this summer as a result.
Yamamoto Decision
We took a closer look at Yamamoto’s specific situation over the weekend which basically amounts to Edmonton having some less-than-desirable options when it comes to their 2017 first-round pick.
The 24-year-old made a big impact early in his career, picking up 26 points in 27 games after being a late-season recall in 2019-20 before stalling out briefly. Then, it looked as if he was back on track following a 20-goal campaign in 2021-22, earning himself a two-year, $6.2MM contract, but again, he stalled out this past season. At the moment, the Oilers have around $5MM to spend, per CapFriendly, with their pending restricted free agents set to cost considerably more than that. Someone has to go.
Yamamoto is young enough that his buyout would only cost one-third instead of the standard two-thirds. That means that if they went that route, they’d free up over $2.6MM for next season while adding $533K in dead cap for 2024-25. That could give them enough flexibility to re-sign their pending restricted free agents.
Alternatively, they could see if there’s a trade market for Yamamoto. There are a handful of teams that are willing to take on money this summer, perhaps one would be interested in a younger player with the hope of trying to rebuild his value. But those teams might prefer the incentives they’d receive for taking on a pricier veteran. If Edmonton is able to move him this way, they’ll save a bit more cap space but the return is almost certain to be underwhelming.
The buyout deadline is June 30th so there is a fixed timeline for a decision to be made on what they’re doing with Yamamoto unless they can find a way to keep him around. Assuming that doesn’t happen, they’ll be adding a cheap middle-six winger to their shopping list in the coming weeks.
Move Mid-Tier Money
It probably isn’t just Yamamoto that Holland will be making available around the league. In an effort to open up cap space but not take away from their core pieces, they will likely look to move at least one other middle-tier player. On the Oilers, those players would be winger Warren Foegele (one year, $2.75MM) plus defensemen Brett Kulak (three years, $2.75MM) and Cody Ceci (two years, $3.25MM).
It’s not that Edmonton should be particularly displeased with how any of these players performed this past season. However, on the back end, Phillip Broberg is ready for full-time duty and is on a contract less than $100K above the league minimum. Moving one of Ceci or Kulak would open up more ice time for the promising youngster while opening up more cap flexibility. Similarly, while the Oilers like Foegele’s energy in the bottom six, would they be better off moving him, bringing back someone like Nick Bjugstad for less, and pocketing the savings?
Of course, this particular concept isn’t unique to the Oilers; more than half the league will be trying to do exactly something like this over the next couple of weeks. As a result, they’re unlikely going to land a sizable return for any of these players. But a move like that is necessary to give themselves a chance at keeping their restricted free agents while trying to add a piece or two to give them a boost (or at least replace Yamamoto).
Re-Sign Bouchard
When the Oilers acquired Mattias Ekholm from Nashville at the trade deadline, the veteran defender really helped to shore up Edmonton’s back end. But the swap had another benefit as Evan Bouchard took a huge step forward. Partnered with the steady Ekholm, Bouchard’s confidence soared. And with power play specialist Tyson Barrie going the other way in the swap, the chance to load up the points was there for the taking.
Let’s just say he took advantage of it. Following the trade, Bouchard picked up an impressive 19 points in 21 games, heading into the playoffs on a high note. The 23-year-old then found another gear in the postseason, notching 17 points in a dozen games, leading all blueliners in playoff points despite only playing in two rounds. That’s one way to hit restricted free agency on a high note.
Bouchard’s entry-level contract is set to come to an end on July 1st. He won’t have arbitration eligibility but he’ll still be in line for a significant raise. He has two full NHL seasons under his belt, both of them generating at least 40 points which should push a two-year bridge deal past the $3MM mark. A one-year deal might get it a bit lower but would hand him arbitration eligibility the following summer. That doesn’t seem like a wise move for the Oilers. On the other hand, locking in long-term probably isn’t a wise move for Bouchard’s camp, nor is it an option that Edmonton can reasonably afford as things stand.
If you’re a fan of strategic offer sheets, this is a spot for one. If a team got Bouchard to sign a one-year, $4.29MM offer sheet, the compensation would only be a second-round pick. Edmonton would surely match but that price point would be problematic from a roster-building standpoint while, again, it gives him arbitration rights the following year. Is such a scenario likely? Probably not, especially in an era where offer sheets are few and far between. But if Holland thinks a team might try it just to mess up their cap structure, it would behoove him to try to get Bouchard’s two-year bridge pact locked in sooner than later.
Avoid Arbitration
The Oilers have indicated that they will be qualifying all but one of their restricted free agents. Among those that will be (or have been) tendered offers are forwards Klim Kostin and Ryan McLeod. Both players had nice seasons, notching 11 goals in 57 games apiece. McLeod worked his way into a more prominent spot on the depth chart as the season went on while Kostin, who started in the minors after clearing waivers, was mostly on the fourth line, delivering strong results.
However, both players are eligible for salary arbitration for the first time. By tendering them their qualifiers, both McLeod and Kostin have the right to file for a hearing. That’s the scenario that Edmonton would like to avoid.
Would either player break the bank? Probably not but there are plenty of comparable players that would be in their favor which could help push their awards higher than Edmonton wants to pay. They also won’t have a walkaway option on either player as PuckPedia reported last week (Twitter link) that the threshold for that remains where it has been since 2019-20 at $4.539MM. Neither player is coming close to that; combined, they might not even get there.
But it’s certainly in Edmonton’s best interest to try to get these contracts done quickly. They’ll both be short-term agreements again to keep the cap hit down. Kostin’s should come in around $1.25MM or so while McLeod’s should be about $500K higher. Getting those locked in over running the risk of an award adding a few extra hundred thousand per player would help from a flexibility standpoint.
Perhaps more importantly, it would also give them some certainty about what they can do this summer. This whole column has been about internal focuses over external ones because of their cap situation. They want to add but to do that, they need to move out roster players, creating more holes in the process while needing to leave room to re-sign Bouchard, Kostin, and McLeod (and perhaps try to keep Bjugstad).
Getting as many of these done as possible before July 1st becomes quite important as a result so they know what they can, or can’t afford to do on the open market. While some teams will be doing their heavy lifting once free agency opens up, Edmonton should be hoping that most of theirs will already be done by then.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
