Hypothetical Goalie Trade Targets For The Edmonton Oilers
There is no doubt that the Edmonton Oilers have struggled defensively this year, and have struggled to generate much offense outside of their top-six forward group. However, the team has had a uniquely poor start with their goaltending, as the duo of Stuart Skinner and Jack Campbell have produced a 5-10-1 record in 16 games played, as well as carrying a .873 SV% and a 3.70 GAA collectively.
Even looking deeper into the numbers of the tandem, according to Hockey Reference, they have generated a -14.0 Goals Saved Above Average, a 3.76 Adjusted Goals Against Average, and a 37.5% Quality Start Percentage.
In any trade to improve their goaltending, the Oilers’ dream scenario would be to include Campbell and his $5MM salary, but with most other teams carrying limited cap space through the season, that option becomes much more improbable.
The most recent comparable to Campbell’s situation would be a June 6th trade between the Columbus Blue Jackets, Los Angeles Kings, and the Philadelphia Flyers. The Kings were able to unload the two-year, $10MM remaining on Calvin Petersen‘s contract, as well as the contract of defenseman Sean Walker, but did have to send a prospect, as well as a first-round pick in 2023, and a second-round pick in 2024 to Philadelphia just as a facilitator in the deal.
Essentially, the cost of $5.6MM in cap space for Los Angeles, without acquiring anything of value in return, was a prospect, and two high draft picks. If the Oilers are looking to improve their goaltending in a similar trade, the cost would certainly increase beyond that price.
To set the table, Edmonton does have all three of their first-round picks over the next three seasons, as well as two of their second-round picks (the 2025 selection is owned by the Arizona Coyotes) over the same time. Also, if any acquiring team is willing to buy out Campbell this offseason, they would be on the hook for $10.5MM spread out over the next six seasons.
Now, let’s look at a list of options and work a potential deal around them:
Petr Mrazek – Chicago Blackhawks (one-year, $3.8MM)
Not only would Chicago be able to absorb the contract of Campbell even after a buyout, but Mrazek is quietly having a very productive season even with a poor team in front of him. In 10 games played for the Blackhawks this season, Mrazek has a 4-5-0 record, coupled with a .915 SV% and a 2.89 GAA.
With only one year remaining on his contract, a trade for Mrazek would allow the Oilers to improve their goaltending situation down the stretch while giving them the financial flexibility to pursue a different goaltender in the offseason if they choose to do so.
In order to rid themselves of Campbell’s contract, Edmonton would need to attach their first-round pick in 2024, as well as their second-round pick in 2026, and potentially a third-to-fourth-round selection in either of the next three years simply to acquire Mrazek from the Blackhawks in the first place.
Karel Vejmelka – Arizona Coyotes (two-years, $5.45MM)
Even behind a struggling Coyotes defense for the last three seasons, Vejmelka has put up decent numbers and could benefit from a stronger team in front of him. Over the last three seasons in Arizona, he has played in 112 games and carries a 33-62-11 record coupled with a .899 SV% and a 3.51 GAA.
As the Coyotes are looking to exit their rebuild soon, they may not be inclined to take on Campbell’s contract, or even be inclined to buy him out after acquiring him. However, if the Oilers were willing to part ways with defenseman Cody Ceci in this hypothetical deal, Arizona could be more tempted.
With Matt Dumba, Troy Stecher, and Josh Brown all headed for free agency next summer, the Coyotes are going to have quite the hole on the right side of their defense. Ceci will be signed for one more after this season at $3.25MM and has offered quality defensive play over the course of his career.
Elvis Merzlikins – Columbus Blue Jackets (four-years, $21.6MM)
It’s tough to think of a more direct comparable to Campbell than the situation of Merzlikins over in Columbus. Both goalies are signed for the next four years, they are both coming off of poor 2022-23 seasons, and both have had a tough start to this year.
If Edmonton was able to frame this deal in the right way, it could become a change-of-scenery swap, with the Oilers not having to add too much extra in return. Even from the viewpoint of Columbus, playing in a much smaller market, Campbell may even be able to regain some of his lost confidence.
Unfortunately, there is a very real possibility that Merzlikins will fail to improve Edmonton’s goaltending situation, even after a change of scenery. In a disastrous year in the net for him last season, Merzlikins held a 7-18-2 record, carrying a horrid .876% and a 4.23 GAA.
Jake Allen – Montreal Canadiens (two-years, $7.7MM)
Similar to where the Canadiens are in the rebuild like the Coyotes, it is unreasonable to think Montreal would be inclined to take on the contract of Campbell, even in a buyout situation. With Allen making $3.85MM for this season, and next, Edmonton will once again look to salary match through different positions.
Over the last two seasons, the Canadiens have built up some serious young depth on defense, meaning the Oilers may have to part with some forwards to acquire Allen and his cap hit. Given this, a realistic package would revolve around Ryan McLeod and Warren Foegele.
As a pending unrestricted free agent, Foegele will simply be on the Canadiens roster for the rest of the year, and move on next summer. When healthy, McLeod represents a bottom-six center option with the ability to play on both sides of the puck, allowing the Canadiens to comfortably replace Sean Monahan next year, and give them a long-term option on the third-line.
Juuse Saros – Nashville Predators (two-years, $10MM)
At last year’s trade deadline, the Oilers and Predators connected on a massive trade, sending Mattias Ekholm to Edmonton in exchange for a package surrounding Tyson Barrie, a prospect, and two draft picks. In the summer, Nashville showed a few more veterans the door and took a very aggressive approach to free agency.
Sitting at 28th place in the NHL entering Thanksgiving week, and unlikely to contend over the last two years of Saros’ contract, the Predators could be inclined to trade him this season. Saros has gotten off to a slow start this year but has finished top-10 in Vezina Trophy voting in each of the last three years.
Due to his track record, it will take a mammoth offer to pry Saros out of Nashville, and the Oilers would need to give up serious capital in return. If they are also willing to take on the contract of Campbell, a package including a young roster player such as McLeod or Dylan Holloway, one of Edmonton’s better prospects such as Philip Broberg or Xavier Bourgault, Edmonton’s first-round pick in 2024, as well as a conditional second-round pick in 2026 with the ability to turn into a first, that may be enough to get Saros from the Predators.
Beau Akey To Undergo Season-Ending Shoulder Surgery
- Oilers prospect Beau Akey is set to undergo surgery and will miss the remainder of the season, reports Oilers Nation’s Robin Brownlee (Twitter link). The 18-year-old was a second-round selection in June (56th overall) and had a strong training camp, helping him land an entry-level contract before being returned to OHL Barrie. With the Colts this season, Akey has nine points in 14 games but after dislocating his shoulder, he won’t be getting any more in 2023-24.
Connor Brown To Return Saturday And Reach His Bonus
With the Oilers looking to add to their roster over the summer with limited cap space, they had to get creative. Since Connor Brown missed most of last season with a torn ACL sustained in the fourth game of the year, he was eligible for a bonus-laden one-year contract. Accordingly, Edmonton inked him to a one-year deal worth only $775K as the base salary but also gave him a $3.225MM bonus that becomes payable when he reaches his tenth game of the season.
The 29-year-old got off to a slow start and was held off the scoresheet in Edmonton’s first nine games of the season despite averaging close to 15 minutes a night while spending a lot of time in the top six. However, Brown suffered a lower-body injury a little over two weeks ago, delaying him reaching that bonus.
That will change on Saturday as Brown confirmed today (video link) that he will be good to go against Tampa Bay, meaning he will play in his tenth game and reach that bonus.
Whatever amount, if any, Edmonton finishes under the $83.5MM salary cap will be applied to cover some of Brown’s bonus. The remainder will then roll over to their 2024-25 cap charges, meaning that the majority of the projected increase in the cap will be spent on paying for Brown’s deal this season.
Brown remained on the active roster for the Oilers during his injury so no corresponding roster move needs to be made. While Edmonton now has 13 healthy forwards on its roster, there isn’t any benefit to sending one down after the team went into LTIR following the injuries to Dylan Holloway and Mattias Janmark; they won’t be able to bank any extra cap space if they sent their spare forward back to AHL Bakersfield. In the meantime, they’ll hope that Brown can become the key two-way forward he was back with Ottawa where he had his best three seasons from 2019-20 through 2021-22.
Edmonton Oilers Make Several Roster Moves
The Edmonton Oilers have announced several roster moves: defenseman Philip Broberg as well as forwards Raphael Lavoie and Adam Erne have been recalled from the team’s AHL affiliate, the Bakersfield Condors, while forwards Mattias Janmark and Dylan Holloway have been placed on long-term injured reserve. Janmark’s LTIR placement is retroactive to October 26th.
Janmark, 30, has not played since that date and is currently dealing with a shoulder injury. He still has not yet returned to skating, so his LTIR placement reflects the long-term nature of his absence. A veteran bottom-six forward, Janmark scored 10 goals and 25 points last season but has been held off the scoresheet through seven games this year.
Holloway has been hit with some really poor luck, as just shortly after playing what some in the Edmonton media referred to as his “best game as an Edmonton Oiler” Saturday against the Seattle Kraken he has landed on LTIR.
Holloway went hard into the boards against the New York Islanders Monday night, leaving the game before its conclusion.
Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch said after the game that Holloway’s absence would be “longer-term,” an unfortunate reality that Holloway’s placement on LTIR reflects.
A fast and energetic forward, Holloway’s offensive production in the NHL hasn’t quite matched what he posted at the University of Wisconsin or what the Oilers likely expected when they drafted him 14th overall in 2020. This season was viewed as a crucial one for Holloway’s offensive development, and now with this injury, he has been hit with a potentially significant setback.
As for the recalls, bringing Broberg back into the fold affords Knoblauch more options on defense as he, before these moves, had just six defensemen on his roster. With Broberg now available, he could opt to shift Vincent Desharnais out of the everyday lineup, something that might be necessary as the hulking six-foot-seven rearguard has struggled this season.
Broberg, who is just a few short months older than Holloway, is in many ways in a similar situation. He’s also a player the Oilers spent a premium pick on who has yet to truly figure out how to make an impact in the NHL. Perhaps with the games afforded to him by this recall, Broberg will be able to make strides in establishing himself as a regular at the game’s highest level.
Erne, 28, is a veteran bottom-six forward who has been recalled to bolster the depth Knoblauch has at his disposal on offense. While he has not scored in six NHL games this season, he does bring nearly 400 games of NHL experience to the table. Lavoie, 23, is notably less experienced but has had a genuine AHL breakout over the last two seasons, putting together an impressive run of offensive production.
He’s gotten a chance in the Oilers’ top-nine already this season, but now with two new voices behind the Oilers bench it’s unsurprising that he’s gotten another shot to impress.
These recalls fill out the Oilers roster to a degree the team may not have been able to do without Janmark’s $1MM cap hit on LTIR. Now Knoblauch has additional players at his disposal on the NHL roster who can hopefully help the Oilers dig themselves out of the colossal early-season hole they dug themselves into.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Oilers’ Raphael Lavoie Sent To AHL
The Edmonton Oilers have announced that they’ve sent forward Raphael Lavoie to their AHL affiliate the Bakersfield Condors. Lavoie did not require waivers to be demoted as he cleared them at the beginning of the season and did not play in ten games or spend 30 days on the Oilers roster.
Lavoie dressed in five games for the Oilers and didn’t record any points. He was utilized in a sheltered fourth-line role with the big club and averaged less than eight minutes of ice time per game. The club did their best to protect the 23-year-old as he took 65% of his zone starts in the offensive zone.
Lavoie has had a terrific start to his season in the AHL registering four goals and three assists in just five games. Last season, the former second-round pick dressed in 65 AHL games for the Condors and posted 25 goals and 20 assists. Given his steady offensive improvement and the fact that Lavoie was one of the Oilers’ last training camp cuts, it is fair to say that he could earn another look later in the season. Particularly, if the Oilers decide to sell off some of the veteran players should the season get away from them.
Lavoie’s demotion may be a signal that veteran forward Connor Brown is ready to return for Edmonton. Brown called himself day-to-day just five days ago which indicated that he was inching closer to a return. He has missed the two Edmonton games since those comments, but the sentiment is that he could be back this week. Much like Lavoie, Brown has struggled this season as he too is pointless thus far.
Leon Draisaitl Fined For Tripping
- The Edmonton Oilers got a crucial win in new head coach Kris Knoblauch’s debut, but the 4-1 victory over the New York Islanders has come at a personal cost to superstar center Leon Draisaitl. Draisaitl has been fined $5,000, the maximum allowable under the CBA, by the NHL’s Department of Player Safety for what the department termed a “dangerous trip” on Islanders center Bo Horvat.
Edmonton Oilers Have Been Eyeing Kris Knoblauch For A While
Elliotte Friedman provided more insight into the Edmonton Oilers’ coaching decision in the most recent episode of the 32 Thoughts podcast, explaining that team CEO Jeff Jackson had been a very big fan of Kris Knoblauch for a while. Friedman also added that the Oilers wanted to make this decision sooner rather than later, in an effort to get the team going for the mid-season, referencing teams like the 2019 St. Louis Blues.
This provides a little more clarity to a coaching decision that came suddenly, albeit not surprisingly. The Oilers are off to an abysmal start to the season, currently ranked second-to-last in the league with a 3-9-1 record. They sit one win ahead of the San Jose Sharks, who have gone 2-12-1 through their first 15 games. They’ll now lean on a rookie NHL head coach in Knoblauch, who most recently led the AHL’s Hartford Wolf Pack to a 35-26-11 record and a Round 2 playoff loss last season. Knoblauch won two OHL championships in seven years coaching in the league. The first came with a Kootenay Ice team led by Brayden McNabb, Matt Fraser, and Max Reinhart. The second came with the talented 2016-17 Erie Otters roster, which featured Alex Debrincat, Dylan Strome, Anthony Cirelli, and Warren Foegele. Knoblauch also coached Connor McDavid during his three years in juniors – a fact that Friedman said didn’t necessarily weigh into his new role in Edmonton, as the team were fans of Knoblauch separate from that connection.
With the confidence of leadership behind him, Knoblauch could be poised to do something special with an Oilers roster that many expected to shine this season.
Edmonton Oilers Fire Jay Woodcroft, Hire Kris Knoblauch
Despite a convincing victory last night, the Edmonton Oilers are making a surprising coaching move. They are expected to relieve head coach Jay Woodcroft of his duties, according to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman. According to Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli, Hartford Wolf Pack head coach Kris Knoblauch will be named the next Oilers head coach.
The Oilers have now officially announced the moves, alongside one more change: Dave Manson is out as an assistant coach for the team, and legendary former Oilers blueliner Paul Coffey has been hired as an assistant coach in Manson’s place. Coffey was previously a senior advisor to the club.
A Zach Hyman hat trick lifted the Edmonton Oilers to a 4-1 win over the Seattle Kraken last night, though the team still sits second to last in the NHL with a 3-9-1 record. In a Stanley Cup-or-bust season, The Oilers atrociously bad start to the season—highlighted by the team’s dispiriting loss to fellow basement-dwellers, the San Jose Sharks— has now cost Woodcroft his job.
Per the Edmonton Sun’s Terry Jones, this move will be the fifth head coaching change of the Connor McDavid/Leon Draisaitl partnership. Of all the coaches to man the bench for McDavid and Draisaitl, its Woodcroft who has arguably had the most success.
Woodcroft rose from Bakersfield Condors bench boss to the big job in Edmonton, and posted a .643 points percentage across 133 games. That’s the highest in Oilers history, above even the .616 mark posted by legendary coach Glen Sather.
Woodcroft took the Oilers to the Western Conference Final in 2022, where they would fall to the eventual Stanley Cup champion Colorado Avalanche. He lost to the eventual champions once again in 2023, dropping a hard-fought battle with the Vegas Golden Knights.
But with their season on life support, the Oilers needed to make changes in order to resurrect their Stanley Cup hopes. With no cap space to make trades, the easiest path to major change in Edmonton was via a coaching change, and the Oilers have now taken that route.
This is an attractive job due to the presence of the best player in the world on their roster, but there are some issues here. After this season, Draisaitl will have just one year remaining on his contract. If the Oilers fall well short of the playoffs this season, Draisaitl could reasonably question whether he’ll be able to win a Stanley Cup in Edmonton should he commit what is likely to be the rest of his prime years to the franchise.
McDavid has an extra year on his contract, so there will naturally be questions regarding his future as well, though the hire of his former agent Jeff Jackson as the team’s CEO of hockey operations position makes it more likely he’ll eventually reach a deal on a contract extension.
Those questions are all for the offseason and beyond, though. The Oilers have a more immediate problem to wrestle with: how are they going to revive their playoff chances in a season where they were viewed by many as a true Stanley Cup contender? Now with Woodcroft out, it appears the Oilers believe the first step to answering that question is a coaching change.
The choice of the next Oilers coach appears to be at least somewhat McDavid-oriented. Knoblauch was McDavid’s coach in the OHL with the Erie Otters, and he won an OHL title with the team in 2016-17. A two-time championship-winning coach in the CHL, Knoblauch, 45, is in his fifth season as the bench boss of the Wolf Pack.
He led the team on a run to the second round of the Calder Cup Playoffs last season, upsetting the favored Providence Bruins along the way. He leaves Hartford this season with a 7-3-1 record.
The New York Post’s Mollie Walker reports that Wolf Pack assistant coach Steve Smith will take up head coaching duties in the immediate term, although the search for the team’s next head coach will “begin immediately.” Smith is actually a former Oilers coach himself, having served as an assistant on three separate coaching staffs from 2010 to 2014.
Knoblauch hasn’t been an NHL head coach before, save for a short stint during the pandemic when health-related absences put him behind the Rangers’ bench due to necessity. But despite his lack of NHL experience, he was viewed as a contender for the Rangers’ vacancy before they hired Peter Laviolette. Now, he gets his first shot behind an NHL bench with some former players on his roster and an immediate, pressing task ahead: save the Oilers season.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Oilers Notes: Goaltending, Bourgault, Coaching
Edmonton’s goaltending situation certainly hasn’t been good this season with Stuart Skinner and now-demoted Jack Campbell combining for a 4.10 GAA and a .862 SV%, a big reason why the Oilers are now tied with San Jose for last in the NHL. Accordingly, there has been an expectation that a move will be made to shore up their netminders. In a recent 32 Thoughts podcast (audio link), Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman relayed that there were some in the league who thought Edmonton was nearing a deal to do just that on Wednesday. Clearly, that hasn’t come to fruition (yet, at least) but it would appear as if GM Ken Holland is trying to get something done on that front. But with the team in a money-in, money-out situation to stay cap-compliant, it’ll be easier said than done.
More from Edmonton:
- Speaking today on TSN 690 (audio link), TSN’s Darren Dreger indicated that prospect Xavier Bourgault is “a piece the Canadiens have coveted for a while”. The 21-year-old was the 22nd pick back in 2021 and is in his second season with AHL Bakersfield. A strong scorer in junior, Bourgault had a decent rookie campaign with 34 points in 62 games last season while he has four in seven contests so far this year. Montreal is one of the teams still carrying three goalies although Jake Allen might not work in their salary structure, extension talks have started with Samuel Montembeault, and Cayden Primeau isn’t the proven solution between the pipes that Edmonton should be looking for.
- TSN’s Ryan Rishaug relayed earlier today (Twitter link) that nothing was imminent with regards to possible coaching change. Jay Woodcroft is only in his second full season with the team and even with the ugly start this season, his teams have played to a .640 point percentage. Postmedia’s Robert Tychkowski notes that a change, if one is made, would give them their fifth bench boss in eight years with a good chunk of the core there for all of those moves. As a result, while making a move behind the bench might be the easiest lever to pull, recent history would suggest that it might not change a whole lot.
Hamblin's Recall No Longer Cap-Exempt
- PuckPedia notes (Twitter link) that the Oilers have converted forward James Hamblin’s emergency exception recall into a regular one. When they sent Jack Campbell and down and recalled Calvin Pickard earlier today, Edmonton had enough cap space to fit Hamblin into its cap structure, meaning they were no longer eligible for the cap exemption he was recalled with. The 24-year-old logged nearly 11 minutes in his season debut back on Monday.