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PHR Playoff Primer: Los Angeles Kings vs Edmonton Oilers

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With the start of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs just a few days away, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We continue our look with the Pacific Division matchup between the Los Angeles Kings and Edmonton Oilers.

A series that promises to be high scoring and hard fought will take place between the Los Angeles Kings and Edmonton Oilers in a rematch from a year ago. That series saw the Oilers take a lead with two blowout wins in Game 2 and 3 before falling behind 3-2 and then clawing back to win by allowing just two goals in the final two games. Connor McDavid carried the team to victory with 14 points in seven games and Mike Smith was great in goal with a .938 SV% in the series win.

The Kings were without Drew Doughty who was injured last season, but he is playing great hockey again with 52 points in 81 games this season. Adding Kevin Fiala to the lineup also gives the Kings a point-per-game player they did not have at their disposal a year ago. Doughty and Fiala give the Kings a big shot in the arm compared to a year ago, but the Oilers are playing some of the best hockey we have seen in Edmonton in decades.

Will it be the high-flying Oilers for a second consecutive season, or will the Kings exact some revenge from a first-round exit a year ago?

Regular Season Performance

Edmonton: 50-23-9, 109 points, +65 goal differential
Los Angeles: 47-25-10, 104 points, +23 goal differential

Head-To-Head

November 16, 2022: Los Angeles 3, Edmonton 1

January 9, 2023: Los Angeles 6, Edmonton 3

March 30, 2023:Edmonton 2, Los Angeles 0

April 4, 2023: Edmonton 3, Los Angeles 1

Season series tied 2-2-0

Team Storylines

The Oilers enter the postseason with Connor McDavid riding one of the greatest offensive seasons we have witnessed. Scoring 64 goals and 153 points is something we saw in the 1980’s but is simply unheard of in today’s NHL. McDavid became just the sixth player in league history to score 150 points and the first to do it since Mario Lemieux in 1996.

Though he is well ahead of anyone else in the league, he is not the only Oiler piling up points this season. Leon Draisaitl scored 52 goals and 128 points, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins added 37 goals and 104 points and Zach Hyman was over a point-per-game with 36 goals and 83 points in 79 games. Evander Kane missed significant time this season, but scored 16 goals and 28 points in 41 games and was a playoff beast a year ago, leading the postseason in goals with 13, even though the Oilers were eliminated in four straight games in the Western Conference Final.

Scoring is not, and never really was, an issue for the Oilers. The questions marks existed elsewhere, but have the Oilers patched those holes? They added Mattias Ekholm at the trade deadline, and he has been the defensive rock that they needed all along. Since adding Ekholm, the Oilers finished the season on an 18-2-1 run to ensure home-ice advantage in this series. He has been averaging well over 20 minutes of ice time per game and immediately rejuvenated the Oilers top-four defense along with Darnell Nurse, Evan Bouchard and Cody Ceci.

Do the Oilers have what it takes in goal to win a series? They thought they would be leaning on Jack Campbell at this time of year after signing him to a five-year contract with a $5MM annual cap hit just last summer. However, he struggled in his first season with the Oilers, posting a 3.41 GAA and a .888 SV%. Stuart Skinner has really taken over the starter’s role in the last quarter of the season, posting a 2.43 GAA and a .920 SV% since March 1 and giving the Oilers a reliable goaltender to lean on late in the season.

Another key to focus on is, will the Kings be able to slow down the offensive beast that is the Edmonton Oilers? A quick glance at their numbers show the Kings were not able to slow anyone down this season. They allowed 257 goals this season. The only playoff teams to allow more were the Florida Panthers and Oilers. It sure promises to be a high scoring series. With Doughty playing this time around and Vladislav Gavrikov acquired at the trade deadline, the Kings have a better chance of at least slowing down McDavid and Draisaitl. No one can stop those two, but if they are held to 7-9 points each in a series, it would force the Oilers depth pieces to add some scoring, which they are not always capable of doing.

What about the Kings goaltending? They did trade for a goaltender at the trade deadline and Joonas Korpisalo has been great for them. He played just 11 games after being acquired, but he had a 2.13 GAA and a .921 SV% to give the Kings confidence in a position that was a weakness for most of the season. If Korpisalo can continue to play like that in the first round, the Kings will be in good shape. But it is difficult for anyone to put up a .920 SV% against these Oilers, who were the highest scoring team in the NHL with 325 goals.

Special teams are always a key component in a playoff series and this will be no exception. The Oilers power play alone is enough to give goaltenders nightmares as it clicked at a 32.4% efficiency rate, which is the best power play percentage in NHL history. The Kings had a bottom ten penalty kill at 75.8%. That is not something that can be fixed overnight and could prove to be a huge problem against a team like the Oilers.

On the other hand, the Oilers penalty kill was not much better, killing off 77% of their penalties while the Kings power play converted on an impressive 25.3% of their chances. Staying out of the box is going to be key as neither team is strong while shorthanded, and both have the ability to do damage on the man advantage.

Prediction

The Kings have new pieces in place that should allow them to be more competitive this time around. Having Gavrikov and Doughty on defense, Korpisalo in goal as well as Phillip Danault who is one of the best shutdown centers in the league, should at least slow down McDavid a little bit. He is going to score on the power play, but if they can limit him at even strength, they will force the depth of the Oilers to step up, and they don’t have a lot of scoring behind their top four forwards. There won’t be two huge blowouts early in the series this time around.

The problem for the Kings is, the Oilers have addressed similar needs and now have Ekhlom as a defensive horse on the blue line and they are playing the best hockey we have seen out of any team in the past six weeks. McDavid and Draisaitl each averaged two points per game in the playoffs last spring, and both were somehow even better this season than ever before. Yes, they could use some depth scoring, but Mattias Janmark, Warren Foegele, Klim Kostin, Nick Bjugstad and Ryan McLeod give them reliable minutes even if they don’t score a ton. That can be left to the top two lines.

Yet another magical spring from McDavid and Draisaitl is about to begin, and they won’t be denied in round one. It will not be an easy one by any stretch, but the Kings offense just can’t match the Oilers scoring. Prediction: The Oilers win in six games.

Ryan Murray Loaned To AHL On Conditioning Stint

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The Edmonton Oilers haven’t had Ryan Murray in the lineup since late November, but they could be getting him back just in time for some added depth in the playoffs. The veteran defenseman has been assigned to the Bakersfield Condors on an AHL conditioning assignment, suggesting he’s ready to get back into a game after missing the last several months.

Murray has played just 13 games this season after signing a one-year, $750K contract with the Oilers last summer. He averaged just 13 minutes a night in those appearances and will likely receive even less than that if Edmonton’s current group can stay healthy.

As most teams have discovered, though, the Stanley Cup playoffs are a war of attrition, and teams that go on deep runs usually need eight, nine, or even ten defensemen. With over 400 games of NHL experience, Murray can fill the role of practice player until they need an extra body.

It’s a role he’s familiar with, given he won the Stanley Cup with the Colorado Avalanche last season without appearing in the postseason.

Ryan McLeod Activated Off LTIR

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The Oilers welcomed back one of their centers before their game tonight against Colorado, announcing (Twitter link) that Ryan McLeod was activated off LTIR.  The 23-year-old missed four weeks with an upper-body injury and was retroactively shuffled to LTIR over the weekend.  McLeod has put up nearly identical numbers compared to his rookie season, notching 11 goals and 11 assists in 55 games heading into tonight’s action although he got to those numbers in 16 fewer contests than a year ago.

Skyler Brind’Amour Not Expected To Sign With Oilers

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In August, many NCAA players will see their exclusive draft rights expire, allowing them unrestricted free agents to sign with any organization. The decision has already been made for one of those players, Skyler Brind’Amour.

Frank Seravalli of Daily Faceoff reports that Brind’Amour, fresh off a national championship with Quinnipiac, will not sign with the Edmonton Oilers. Jason Gregor of TSN adds that Brind’Amour informed the Oilers that there would be a better opportunity elsewhere as he tries to transition to professional hockey.

If he doesn’t change his mind and is still unsigned through August 15, Brind’Amour—son of Carolina Hurricanes head coach Rod Brind’Amour—will be an unrestricted free agent. As a sixth-round pick in 2017, the Oilers will not receive draft compensation.

They could, however, work out a trade with his preferred destination, though that club could simply wait until August if they have confidence in him signing at that point. The 23-year-old forward was a key part of the Bobcats’ first-ever NCAA title, and scored 32 points in 41 games this season.

A workhorse that seems to always be attacking the puck carrier, Brind’Amour’s potential at the NHL level likely tops out as a bottom-six energy player. Even that projection will be tested next year as he transitions, starting his professional career at the age of 24.

Jason Demers Assigned To Bakersfield

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  • The Oilers announced (Twitter link) that they’ve assigned defenseman Jason Demers back to Bakersfield of the AHL. The 34-year-old logged nearly 11 minutes on Saturday in his first NHL appearance since May 2021, his 700th in total.  Demers has spent the rest of the year with the Condors, recording 18 assists in 55 games.  It’s believed that the veteran is leaning towards retiring after the season.

West Notes: Ceci, Demers, Bortuzzo

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Mark Spector of Sportsnet reports some lineup shuffling is happening with the Edmonton Oilers, but in good news, it is not due to any injuries. First of all, Spector says Cody Ceci has returned to Edmonton, even though the team is in California preparing to take on the San Jose Sharks tomorrow night. The reason Ceci is leaving the team is because he is expecting his first child to arrive and he will head back to Alberta to be with his growing family.

Ceci has averaged over 20 minutes of ice time per game this season, and has played in all 79 contests so far. The 29-year-old right-defenseman has scored one goal and 14 points while carving out a role as a defensive presence in the team’s top four this season. His status should not be in question for the beginning of the postseason.

  • In Ceci’s place, again according to Mark Spector of Sportsnet, will be veteran defenseman Jason Demers. The 34-year-old defenseman has not played an NHL game since the 2020-21 season when he was with the Arizona Coyotes. He played just five games last season in the KHL as well as five games at the Olympics, and has spent this entire season in the AHL with the Bakersfield Condors. Spector notes that Demers plans on retiring following this season, but first he will get a chance to suit up in his 700th career NHL game in Ceci’s absence.
  • Lou Korac of NHL.com reports that St. Louis Blues defenseman Robert Bortuzzo is currently away from the team. Korac mentions Bortuzzo had a family matter to attend to in Toronto and will be back with the Blues on Sunday. Bortuzzo has also missed the team’s last five games while dealing with an upper-body injury but as Korac notes, he has not been ruled out of a pair of games next week against the Dallas Stars that will bring the Blues season to a close.

Edmonton Oilers Recall Jason Demers, Place Ryan McLeod On LTIR

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The Edmonton Oilers have made two roster moves, recalling veteran defenseman Jason Demers from their AHL affiliate, the Bakersfield Condors, and placing forward Ryan McLeod on long-term injured reserve.

The recall puts Demers in a position to play his 700th career NHL game, and his first since the 2020-21 season. The 34-year-old defenseman last played in the NHL for the Arizona Coyotes, a team he landed on in a 2017 swap of pricey contracts, with Arizona sending Jamie McGinn to the Florida Panthers in return. Demers played four years with the Coyotes before signing in the KHL with Ak-Bars Kazan in the summer of 2022.

Demers played just nine games in the KHL, and his 2021-22 season was most notable for his work representing Canada at the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing. He scored two points as one of Canada’s most experienced defensemen, and his performance on that major stage helped him earn a PTO with the AHL’s Bakersfield Condors in October.

That PTO became a full contract with the Oilers in December, and now the forward momentum Demers has been building in his career has materialized into an NHL call-up. Demers has been playing in a top-four role with the Condors, but will likely play a limited role with the Oilers should head coach Jay Woodcroft dress him for a game.

As for McLeod, his placement on LTIR was needed to facilitate this move since the Oilers do not have the cap space to make a recall otherwise. The 23-year-old 2018 second-round pick has scored 22 points in 55 games this season as a regular bottom-sixer for Edmonton, although he hasn’t played since a March 14th contest against the Ottawa Senators. As we covered last month, reports indicate that McLeod is dealing with a shoulder injury.

Snapshots: Three Stars Of March, Teravainen, Minnesota-Duluth

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The NHL released its Three Stars for the month of March. Not surprisingly, the First Star of the month was Edmonton Oilers superstar Connor McDavid. It is the second consecutive month he was named the best player in the NHL and third time this season. McDavid helped the Oilers solidify their playoff standing in March, by putting up an incredible 11 goals and 29 points in 15 games, leading the team to a 12-2-1 record which not only ensures they will make the playoffs, but puts them just two points back of first overall in the Western Conference.

McDavid did have some help in March, with teammate Leon Draisaitl earning Second Star for the month of March. Draisaitl scored 11 goals himself and had 28 points in 15 games, putting him just one point back of McDavid’s incredible pace. The Oilers dynamic duo looks playoff ready with McDavid now leading the NHL in goals, assists and points and Draisaitl sitting second in the league in points and fourth in goals.

While the Oilers stars get plenty of attention, the NHL’s Third Star of March is a bit more underrated. Clayton Keller is putting together a great season for the Arizona Coyotes and is showing no signs of slowing down. The 24-year-old winger piled up 12 goals, which led the league, and 24 points in 16 March contests. He now has 36 goals, 46 assists and 82 points in 76 games this season, ensuring a point-per-game campaign. The Coyotes do not have a lot going for them these days, but Keller is proving to be a star to build around.

  • Teuvo Teravainen was ruled out of the Carolina Hurricanes game against the Montreal Canadiens tonight, per a team release. The Finnish winger is a key part of the Hurricanes attack, especially with fellow wingers Andrei Svechnikov and Max Pacioretty out for the season with injury. The team announced that Teravainen is out with an illness, so although this is his second consecutive game missed, it should not turn into a long term absence which is great news for the Hurricanes who are trying to hold off the New Jersey Devils for first place in the Metropolitan Division.
  • Matt Wellens of the Duluth News Tribune reports the Minnesota-Duluth Bulldogs will be keeping some key veterans for next season. UMD did not have its typical dominant season, finishing fifth in the NCHC Conference and failed to advance to the college hockey national playdowns. They have also a few veterans who are moving on, and a couple of underclassmen who chose to sign pro like Wyatt Kaiser or transfer to a different school like Isaac Howard and Luke Mylymok. It is not all bad news for UMD though, as three key veterans have chosen to return for a fifth season. Wingers Luke Loheit and Quinn Olson will be back as will goaltender Matthew Thiessen. Loheit had 19 points in 35 games this season and Olson had 24 points in 37 games which should give the Bulldogs a couple of wingers to lock into the top six next season. Thiessen had a 2.64 GAA and a .905 SV% in 19 games last season.

Ryan Murray Resumes Skating

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  • Oilers defenseman Ryan Murray has resumed skating, relays TSN’s Ryan Rishaug (Twitter link). The 29-year-old has been out with a back injury for the last three months and has been limited to just 13 appearances this season where he has three assists while averaging a little over 13 minutes a night.  Murray isn’t likely to crack Edmonton’s top six when he’s cleared to return but he’d at least give them some extra veteran depth for the playoffs.

Edmonton Oilers Sign Carl Berglund

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The Edmonton Oilers have announced the signing of Swedish forward Carl Berglund to a two-year entry level contract. Berglund spent the year playing his senior NCAA season with UMass Lowell where he had 12 goals and 15 assists in 36 games. His two-year deal will cover the 2023-24 and 2024-25 seasons; however, Berglund will report to Edmonton’s AHL affiliate the Bakersfield Condors after signing an AHL amateur tryout agreement to cover the remainder of this season.

Should Berglund make the Oilers in either of the next two seasons he will have a cap hit of $925K, however should he play in the AHL he would make a salary of $80K. Each season will also see him collect a signing bonus of $92.5K as part of his entry level deal. Not bad for a player who went undrafted just a few years ago.

For his NCAA career Berglund has amassed 36 goals and 53 assists in 114 career games with UMass Lowell. Prior to his college career, the 23-year-old scored 16 points in 37 USHL games and won a Clark Cup with the Sioux Falls Stampede.

Berglund is a late bloomer and could be an interesting prospect for the Oilers farm system. He has good size at 6’2″ and 207 pounds, is good off the rush, and can play center as well as on the wing. It is a good signing for Edmonton as they are able to bring in a young player without having to use any draft capital.

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