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Hypothetical Scenarios For Detroit's 2024 NHL Draft

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In an article today from Max Bultman of The Athletic (Subscription Required), he theorizes three hypothetical options for the Detroit Red Wings during the 2024 NHL Draft: stay put, trade down, and trade up. After it took until the last game of the regular season for the Red Wings to be eliminated from the postseason, there are several different directions that General Manager Steve Yzerman could take in Vegas.

If Detroit stays put, one of the most common mock picks at 15th overall is Michael Brandsegg-Nygård of Mora IK in the Swedish HockeyAllsvenskan. Brandsegg-Nygard would be a very safe pick at 15th overall, given that he is one of the most mature players in the draft already, meaning it shouldn’t take him too long to crack the Red Wings roster. However, if Detroit does stay put, with a decent amount of organizational depth at the forward position, they could look for a high-risk high-reward prospect at 15th overall such as Cole Eiserman or Michael Hage.

Yzerman’s second most likely option would be to trade down a few spots to clear some cap space for the offseason. The Chicago Blackhawks and Anaheim Ducks represent likely trade options in this scenario, given the bevy of cap space each team has. The Red Wings may be able to move the 15th overall pick and Justin Holl’s contract to the Blackhawks in exchange for the 18th overall pick, or send the 15th overall pick and potentially both Holl and Ben Chiarot to the Ducks in exchange for the 31st overall pick if they want to get aggressive.

Lastly, since the Red Wings are unlikely to trade into the top 10 of the NHL Draft, their most likely partners in a trade-up scenario would be the Philadelphia Flyers or Buffalo Sabres. With the Flyers amid their rebuild, and the Sabres unlikely to trade with a division rival, would it make sense for Detroit to move up three spots? The price would be too high for Yzerman to trade up, and they may be left with similar options with the 15th overall pick regardless.

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Red Wings Could Target Goaltending This Summer

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Jonas Siegel of The Athletic speculates what a potential Mitch Marner trade might look like for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Siegel points to several recent trades for Pierre-Luc Dubois and Dougie Hamilton as templates the Maple Leafs could use to get a return package for the 27-year-old Marner. Both of those trades brought young NHL-ready talent back to their respective teams, which is something that Toronto would likely covet given their competitive window.

Siegel points to the Carolina Hurricanes and Tampa Bay Lightning as teams that the Maple Leafs could potentially do business with. Carolina could dangle Seth Jarvis, Andrei Svechnikov, and Martin Necas as potential centerpieces of a return for Marner, while Tampa Bay could use Mikhail Sergachev or Brandon Hagel.

Siegel does concede that any potential Marner trade could be nixed by his no-movement clause and might be a difficult trade for Toronto to win. However, with Marner’s pending free agency status, it may be something they need to explore.

In other Eastern Conference notes:

  • Max Bultman of The Athletic wonders if the Detroit Red Wings might be players in the goaltending market this summer, specifically the trade market where several high-end starters are available. Bultman writes that the Red Wings’ general manager isn’t revealing much but adds that Ville Husso’s health could nudge the Red Wings into the trade market and would be the quickest way to improve the team’s overall defense which was something that was an Achilles heel last season. Detroit missed the playoffs by the smallest of margins and adding a top-tier netminder might be the thing that gets them back into the playoffs for the first time since 2016. The team has backup Alex Lyon signed next year to a very reasonable $900K, but likely can’t count on him to duplicate his 44-game workload from this past season.
  • Elliotte Friedman reported today on his 32 Thoughts podcast that the rights to Hurricanes forward Jake Guentzel are available for a mid-round pick. Friedman tells his audience that Carolina has made it known to other teams that the 29-year-old’s signing rights are available and adds that there will be a ton of interest. It was reported earlier this week that Guentzel was likely to test free agency and it makes sense for the Hurricanes to pivot and try to recoup an asset after dealing Michael Bunting, three prospects, and a second-round pick to Pittsburgh at the trade deadline to acquire Guentzel.

Updates On Three Detroit Free Agents

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With plenty of news coverage surrounding free agency this time of year, Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic (Subscription Required) spoke to a trio of players expected to hit free agency in the upcoming weeks for the Detroit Red Wings and where things currently stand with each. LeBrun notes that all three of Lucas Raymond, David Perron, Patrick Kane, and their respective agents are set to meet with General Manager of the Red Wings, Steve Yzerman, at some point this week.

As the only restricted free agent of the players mentioned, Raymond does not have the same bargaining rights as Perron and Kane, as he is still unable to file for arbitration, let alone hit the open market. Having managed a 14-goal and 13-assist jump on his scoring from the 2022-23 NHL season, Raymond could have earned himself a long-term deal with Detroit this summer. However, considering how the contract negotiations played out between Yzerman and captain Dylan Larkin last year, the savvy General Manager will stay prudent with his available cap space. Regardless of Raymond taking a bridge or max-term contract, his cap hit should take a decent chunk out of the Red Wings’ cap for next season.

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Red Wings Lose Rights To Jan Bednar, Signs AHL Contract

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The New York Rangers will reportedly begin contract extension talks with superstar goaltender Igor Shesterkin when their window to do so opens on July 1st (as per David Pagnotta). The 28-year-old has one season remaining on the four-year $22,666,667 he signed in August 2021 and will likely top Carey Price’s $10.5MM AAV to become the highest-paid goaltender in NHL history. Price’s contract remains active on Montreal’s books and is followed by Sergei Bobrovsky’s $10MM AAV and Andrei Vasilevskiy’s $9.5MM AAV.

The 2022 Vezina Trophy winner saw his regular season numbers fall off as he posted a 36-17-2 record with a .912 save percentage and a 2.58 goals-against average. His biggest drop off was his goals saved above expected where he dropped by 16 goals saved down to 12.1. As pedestrian as his regular season numbers were (by his standards), Shesterkin found his game in the playoffs and was dominant in helping the Rangers to the Conference Finals. He currently sits in second place in goals saved above expected with 13.1 goals saved in just 16 games and posted a .926 save percentage.

In other Eastern Conference notes:

  • Stefen Rosner of NHL.com is reporting that the New York Islanders have lost the NHL rights to 2020 sixth-round draft pick Matias Rajaniemi, however, the defenseman had previously signed an AHL deal to play with the Islanders affiliate in Bridgeport. Rajaniemi signed the AHL deal back in March and is free to sign with any NHL team, however, as Rosner points out that doesn’t happen very often. The 21-year-old has yet to suit up in North America but does have good size at 6’4” and 203 pounds.
  • Max Bultman of The Athletic tweeted that the Detroit Red Wings lost the NHL rights to goaltender Jan Bednar, however, the 21-year-old quickly signed an AHL deal with the Red Wings affiliate the Grand Rapids Griffins. The one-year deal will keep the former fourth-round pick in the Red Wings organization after he spent last season in the ECHL with the Toledo Walleye. Bednar is a good size at 6’4” and 200 pounds and is very gifted athletically. By signing Bednar to an AHL deal, Detroit and Grand Rapids have an opportunity to evaluate the netminder for another season before deciding their next course of action.

Red Wings Sign Jakub Rychlovsky To Entry-Level Deal

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The Red Wings have signed left winger Jakub Rychlovský to a two-year entry-level contract, according to a team announcement. Financial terms were not disclosed.

Rychlovský, 23 in August, was never drafted by an NHL team but is coming off a breakout season in the Czech Extraliga that made him one of the more intriguing international free agents on the market. He’s played primarily in professional leagues in Czechia since being draft-eligible in 2019 but has only made his way to the top level consistently in the last two years.

The 5’10” winger’s 2023-24 campaign truly came out of nowhere. After failing to score double-digit goals at any level since his last season in the Czech junior system, he exploded for 26 tallies with 20 assists for 46 points in 51 games with Bílí Tygří Liberec. That led the league in goals and was good enough for second on the team in points behind veteran Tomáš Filippi’s league-best 62.

On the heels of that upper-echelon performance, Rychlovský will try his hand in North America and attempt to earn a roster spot out of camp with the Wings. With a bevy of unrestricted free agents at the bottom of the forward lineup, there should be a decent amount of turnover, potentially creating a spot up for grabs that Rychlovský can compete for in earnest.

It’s a two-year deal, though, and he’s still quite young, so Detroit can be patient with Rychlovský if he’s not ready for NHL action right away. It’s unclear if there’s a European assignment clause baked into his ELC, but if not, he’s a candidate to begin next season in the minors. He joins Jonatan Berggren, 2022 top-ten pick Marco Kasper and 22-year-old Swedish winger Elmer Söderblom as U-24 forwards likely competing for spots in Detroit’s bottom six.

Rychlovský will be a restricted free agent when his deal expires after the 2025-26 season.

John Lethemon Likely To Sign In Finland

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  • Red Wings pending UFA John Lethemon is expected to sign with Lukko in Finland, per a report from Satakunnan Kansa’s Kimmo Makelainen. The 27-year-old netminder has spent the last two years on an NHL deal with Detroit but has primarily played at the ECHL level in that span.  This season, Lethemon had a 2.90 GAA and a .892 SV% in 37 games with Toledo although he improved those to 2.46 and .899 respectively in nine playoff contests.  An NHL two-way deal likely wasn’t going to be on the table for Lethemon this summer so going overseas, assuming the contract gets finalized, makes some sense.

Offseason Checklist: Detroit Red Wings

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The offseason has arrived for all but a handful of teams who are still taking part in the playoffs.  Accordingly, it’s now time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Detroit.

Amid a seven-year postseason drought, the Red Wings performed admirably during the 2023-24 NHL season, playing meaningful hockey until the last game of the regular season. Detroit is on the cusp of returning to the Stanley Cup Playoffs as early as next year but will have to make some changes to realize that goal after taking a major step forward in their rebuild. General Manager Steve Yzerman is now at a point to put the finishing touches on a playoff-caliber roster this summer after completing much of the heavy lifting already.

Re-Sign The Youngsters

One of the major themes of the 2023-24 season for Detroit was the emergence of winger Lucas Raymond as a legitimate top-line player and confirmation that defenseman Moritz Seider can lead a defensive core. The Red Wings will have the opportunity to keep both in the Motor City until the 2031-32 NHL season with both players seeing their entry-level contracts expire on July 1st.

Even though the team carried big names up front such as Dylan Larkin, Patrick Kane, and Alex DeBrincat, Raymond still led the way offensively for Detroit, scoring 31 goals and 72 points over a full 82-game season. Raymond was irreplaceable down the stretch, scoring 14 goals and 21 points in his last 18 games, keeping the Red Wings afloat in the Eastern Conference wild-card race.

On defense, claiming that Seider has shouldered a heavy load through his first three seasons is an understatement. Seider has not missed a game and has averaged 22:51 of ice time over his entry-level deal since his debut in the 2021-22 season. Even though Seider passes the eye test; his advanced numbers have been more than subpar throughout his career. According to Natural Stat Trick, Seider carried a CorsiFor% of 45.64% which is not a sustainable metric for a top defenseman. However, to push back on Seider’s dismal possession numbers, at even strength, 61% of Seider’s shift starts came in the defensive zone which has made shot creation much more difficult on his part.

Seider’s numbers are reflective of the fact that he is one of the only members of Detroit’s defensive core that can be trusted in the defensive zone against other teams’ top lines and his numbers have suffered from it. If the Red Wings can procure another defenseman to take the pressure off of Seider, his game should flourish in the aftermath.

If the Red Wings are going to sign either player to a long-term deal this summer it is most likely going to be Seider as right-handed defensemen of his caliber do not necessarily grow on trees. For Raymond, a bridge deal seems advantageous for both sides as Raymond would set himself up for a bigger payday in the future and Detroit can confirm that Raymond is the player shown throughout the 2023-24 regular season before doling out serious cash.

Assuming the Red Wings follow that method, Seider’s next contract should check in just south of Owen Power’s seven-year, $58.45MM contract signed with the Buffalo Sabres last year, while Raymond’s should check in at $6MM-$6.5MM on a two- or three-year deal.

Find Another Star

For each team that narrowly missed the 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs the season will be full of several “what ifs?”. For the Red Wings in particular, that question revolves solely around Larkin and how the team performs when he is and isn’t in the lineup.

In the 68 games that Larkin suited up for Detroit this season, the team held a 37-22-9 record while carrying a strong 3.54 GF/G with a 3.24 GA/G. In his absence, however, the team produced a 4-10-0 record and only a dismal 2.64 GF/G and an even worse 3.87 GA/G. This season made clear that given how the team plays without Larkin, the Red Wings must procure a player who can drive the team to wins even when Larkin cannot be in the lineup.

On the unrestricted free agent market this summer, an ideal candidate for this role would be the current captain of the Tampa Bay Lightning Steven Stamkos. For the past 16 years, Stamkos has been a foundational part of the Lightning organization as he’s won two Stanley Cup Championships in four total appearances. From 2010-2018, Yzerman formerly served as General Manager of the Lightning and signed Stamkos to two separate contracts worth a combined total of $105.5MM over the last 13 seasons. Yzerman may look to poach his former player from the Lightning to fill this void for Detroit given their previous history over much of Stamkos’ career in the NHL.

Outside of the free agent market this summer, Yzerman may even feel confident procuring this player via trade with the Red Wings stockpiling so much young talent over his tenure in the front office. As with any team coming out of a rebuild, there will still be some untouchables in the prospect pool for Detroit. Still, Yzerman may be willing to part with Jonatan Berggren, Marco Kasper, William Wallinder, or the 15th overall pick of the 2024 NHL Draft if the price is right.

Stabilize The Defensive Core

Surprisingly, even at 23 years old, Seider represents the longest-tenured member of the Red Wings on defense already. Over the last two offseasons, Detroit has brought in Ben Chiarot, Justin Holl, Olli Maatta, Shayne Gostisbehere, and Jeff Petry, with Jake Walman coming a little over two years ago via trade.

With the emergence of Simon Edvinsson, and the eventual call-up of Axel Sandin-Pellikka, the Red Wings are once again in a position to thin out their defensive unit. Not only do they need to thin out the saturation but they also need to procure a solid top-four defenseman to lighten the burden on Seider.

As good as he was during the regular season, it is likely in Detroit’s best interest to let Gostisbehere walk this summer as well as scan the trade market for both Holl and Petry. By doing that the Red Wings would be able to keep the top unit of Walman and Seider together, shift Chiarot and Maatta into the bottom pairing, and sign a top-four right-handed defenseman this summer to put next to Edvinsson.

Outside of the players mentioned, young defenseman Albert Johansson is also expected to compete for a roster spot in training camp after back-to-back solid seasons for Detroit’s AHL affiliate, the Grand Rapids Griffins. As a left-handed shooting defenseman, Johansson’s play at the beginning of next year could conceivably allow the Red Wings to move Chiarot to the press box on most nights.

One player not necessarily on the trade block but who could become available for Detroit this offseason at the right price is St. Louis Blues defenseman Scott Perunovich. Perunovich is a solid puck-moving defenseman who has accrued 23 assists in 73 career games for the Blues. The Red Wings could give Perunovich much more responsibility in a future role as he appears blocked from ever receiving top-four minutes in St. Louis.

Complete The Tandem In Net

Lastly, Detroit is once again in a position to iron out their goaltending tandem before top prospect Sebastian Cossa can make his debut at the NHL level. Not only does Detroit have Cossa waiting in the wings but netminder Trey Augustine of Michigan State University has become a legitimate goaltending prospect in his own right.

Over the last three offseasons, Detroit has taken flyers on the likes of Alex Nedeljkovic and Ville Husso; neither of which have turned out too positively for the franchise. However, the team did see solid play from Alex Lyon this year which has given the organization some hope that he can be a regular part of the goaltending tandem once again.

Because of their goaltending prospects, Detroit is not in a position to go out and acquire a goalie such as Juuse Saros or Jacob Markstrom this summer but they do need to improve upon their tandem. As far as the options available on the free agent market, Detroit could look to give Laurent Brossoit a larger role than what he has been used to or take a flyer on Ilya Samsonov, hoping for a bounce-back season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Perron Hopes To Re-Sign With Detroit, Plans To Play At Least Two More Years

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Red Wings winger David Perron is slated to reach unrestricted free agency this summer after two seasons with Detroit.  However, as he told Sebastien Lajoie of La Tribune, his preference would be to avoid hitting the open market and simply stick around with the Red Wings.  The soon-to-be 36-year-old was a productive secondary scorer this season, notching 17 goals and 30 assists in 76 games, finishing just a point shy of cracking the top five in team scoring.  Perron added that he plans to play for at least two more years which means he’ll likely be looking for a multi-year deal this summer.  His set-to-expire deal carried an AAV of $4.75MM and it’s possible he could land a bit more this time around.

Patrick Kane May Test Free Agency

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Chris Johnston reported on his show today that former NHLer Marc Savard could be headed to the Toronto Maple Leafs to join their coaching staff just a few days after mutually agreeing to part ways with the Calgary Flames. Savard returned to the NHL this past year as an assistant coach with Calgary but previously worked with Toronto’s new head coach Craig Berube in St. Louis during the 2019-20 season. After his run with the Blues, Savard spent two seasons as the head coach of the Windsor Spitfires of the Ontario Hockey League guiding the team to an 88-35-8-4 record during that time (.695 winning percentage).

The 46-year-old ran the Flames power play this past season, which was seventh worst in the NHL. However, when Savard ran the Blues power play under Berube, St. Louis had the third-best power play in the NHL at 24.3%.

In other Atlantic Division notes:

  • Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch is reporting that the Ottawa Senators are likely to pursue Boston Bruins netminder Linus Ullmark prior to the NHL entry draft next month. The Bruins have received some of the best goaltending in the league over the last two seasons and are in a predicament as they want to sign Jeremy Swayman to a long-term deal but will have Ullmark’s $5MM on their salary cap for one more season. The Senators were reportedly among the teams that tried to acquire Ullmark prior to the NHL trade deadline but were unable to complete a deal. Ottawa received some of the worst goaltending in the NHL last season despite inking free agent Joonas Korpisalo to a five-year $20MM deal last summer. The goaltender position has been a revolving door for the Senators since veteran Craig Anderson left town as a free agent back in 2020.
  • Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic is reporting that it seems likelier than not that Detroit Red Wings forward Patrick Kane will go to free agency on July 1st, but he believes that Kane’s agent Pat Brisson will talk to the Red Wings in the next couple of weeks. Kane took a one-year deal for $2.75MM this past season and will be looking for more term on his next contract after posting solid numbers coming off hip resurfacing surgery. Kane dressed in 50 games for Detroit this season, tallying 20 goals and 27 assists while averaging a career-low in ice time at just 18:23 per game.

Red Wings Re-Assign Nate Danielson To AHL

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Nate Danielson’s junior season has come to an end but he could still see some game action yet.  Detroit’s AHL affiliate in Grand Rapids announced that the Red Wings have re-assigned the center to AHL Grand Rapids.

The 19-year-old was the ninth overall selection last June following a strong campaign with WHL Brandon.  This season, he put up similar numbers, notching 24 goals and 43 assists in just 54 contests between Brandon and Portland, who acquired him midseason after suiting up for Canada at the World Juniors.  Danielson was quite productive in the postseason as well, collecting 24 points in 18 games, good for a tie for fourth in WHL playoff scoring.

If he gets into a game, he’ll be the fourth Detroit first-round pick and sixth draft choice overall to make his Griffins debut a year after being drafted.  Grand Rapids won the opener of the Central Division Finals back on Wednesday so they will have some time to work Danielson into their lineup if they want to give him a taste of AHL action ahead of what should be his first full professional campaign next season.

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