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Minnesota And The Wild Art Of The 0-2 Comeback

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The Minnesota Wild are in a predicament. They have out-shot their opponent 76-53 through 137 minutes of hockey, created the majority of the scoring chances, and dominated advanced stats. But they are down 0-2 in their series, largely due to the heroics of St. Louis net-minder Jake Allen. Per Elias Sports, teams that go down in a series 2-0 only have a 14.1% chance of winning the series. After all, winning 4 of 5 after is no simple task. This is only made more difficult by the fact that Minnesota lost its home ice advantage and has to split in St. Louis to avoid a sweep.

In Minnesota’s current situation, the main contributing factor to the struggles is a snakebitten offensive core. A few players have been on cold streaks, including captain Mikko Koivu who hasn’t scored in his last 16. Perhaps more important is the strength of St. Louis defense over the last 10 games, only surrendering 21 goals. In order for Minnesota to regain a foothold, one of these trends will need to reverse. A goal per game, even against a prime Patrick Roy, simply isn’t good enough.

All over but the crying, right? Well, not quite. Although a 14.1% chance sounds like a longshot, there are more factors to success than one might consider. PDO can really only trend upwards from here, and the bounces are far more likely to turn than not. There is due reason to suspect the unlikely. Minnesota is intimately familiar with the back of the twine – they finished only 2 behind Pittsburgh at 183 Goals For on the season, despite a roster with far fewer superstar names. Devan Dubnyk actually had a better season than Jake Allen 5v5, and is certainly capable of stealing a game of his own. And St. Louis has had wild swings of fortune just as often as Minnesota has. Minnesota, evidenced by a wonderful Wilderness writeup, was indeed beginning to trend back upward. The team stumbled mightily through early March, but recovered quite nicely in the home stretch – winning their last 4 games in convincing fashion.  By their relatively dominant, but ultimately fruitless, on-ice performances in the first 2 games, one might believe these successes were not aberrations.

If we discount the overblown importance of home ice advantage in modern hockey, the situation seems far more salvageable than many observers might believe. As Bruce Boudreau said, “it’s not as dire as they think.” They just should be sure to win the next one.

Central Division Notes: McKenzie, Hanzal, Blues

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The Dallas Stars decision to ink Curtis McKenzie to a one-year contract extension has obvious expansion draft implications in that it gives the team another forward that meets the minimum requirements making him eligible for exposure in the draft and allowing Dallas to protect someone else instead. However, as Mike Heika of the Dallas Morning News writes, the Stars would prefer to hang onto the 26-year-old left wing rather than lose him to the Golden Knights.

Several players the Stars believed would play key roles up front (Ales Hemsky, Patrick Sharp, Mattias Janmark and Jiri Hudler among them) have missed significant portions of the season and McKenzie has proven invaluable by filling a number of roles for the team. He adds grit and penalty killing while sliding up and down the lineup as needed. McKenzie has tallied only four goals and 11 points in 43 games this season but that production is solid for a versatile, defensively responsible bottom-six forward. At a salary of just $700K for 2017-18, McKenzie represents a relative bargain, whether for Dallas or Vegas next season.

  • As is often the case with players joining a new team at the trade deadline, Martin Hanzal has struggled to find his way since being acquired by Minnesota from Arizona for a package of draft choices. But as Michael Russo of the Star Tribune notes, if anyone understands the difficulties of adjusting to a new team and new systems, it’s Wild bench boss Bruce Boudreau, who played for 17 different pro hockey clubs over the course of a 20-year career. Since joining Minnesota, Hanzal has had a rotating cast of linemates, a situation that complicates his adjustment but also one that allows Boudreau to figure out how best to ultimately deploy the veteran pivot. The coach’s patient handling of Hanzal may be starting to pay off. The 30-year-old had his best game as a member of the Wild in Minnesota’s 7 – 4 win over Florida Friday night. Hanzal recorded an assist, finished with three shots on goal and adding five hits. It’s that type of performance that made the 6-foot-6 pivot an attractive trade option at the deadline and if he can continue that level of play throughout the postseason the Wild will be pleased.
  • Jeremy Rutherford of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch hosted his regular chat yesterday and covered a variety of Blues related topics. As usual, the entire piece is well worth the read but one item of particular interest was a look back at a March 2, 2015 trade which saw defenseman Ian Cole shipped by St. Louis to Pittsburgh in exchange for fellow blue liner Robert Bortuzzo and a 2016 seventh-round draft pick. Since joining the Penguins, the 28-year-old Cole has developed into a quality regular on the team’s back end. The seven year veteran is enjoying the best season of his career in 2016-17, registering four goals and 21 points in 63 contests while posting a +23 plus-minus rating. Meanwhile, Bortuzzo has failed to make much of an impact with his new club and has been a healthy scratch often. While the scribe understands the criticism of the deal in hindsight, he also believes that Cole wouldn’t have evolved into a legitimate top-four blue liner had he remained with the Blues. Rutherford believes that Cole simply didn’t mesh well with the Blues at the time. He goes on to write that the team needed more physicality and got that in the form of Bortuzzo. Ultimately, if they had it to do all over again, Rutherford isn’t sure St. Louis would pull the trigger on that deal.

Deadline Primer: Minnesota Wild

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With the trade deadline now just a week away, we continue to take a closer look at each team. Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs?

After slipping into the playoffs last year with less than 90 points and the final wildcard position, only to get punched in the mouth by the Dallas Stars and go home early, the Minnesota Wild needed a change. They’d fired their coach halfway through the season, and were relying on an aging (but excellent) core of Mikko Koivu, Zach Parise and Ryan Suter too much to succeed.

Enter Bruce Boudreau and the kids. After good solid seasons from the young guns a year ago, many of them have exploded to the forefront of the team this season, with Mikael Granlund, Nino Niederreiter, Charlie Coyle, and Jason Zucker all already setting career-highs in points through 59 games. They’re leading the Western Conference by five points and look poised for a deep playoff run.

Record

39-14-6, 1st in Central Division

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$5.20MM – full-season cap hit, 47/50 contracts per CapFriendly.

Draft Picks

2017: MIN 1st, MIN 3rd, MIN 4th, MIN 5th, MIN 6th, MIN 7th
2018: MIN 1st, MIN 2nd, MIN 3rd, MIN 4th, MIN 5th, MIN 6th, MIN 7th

Trade Chips

Minnesota will almost surely avoid trading anything off the roster that has put them in prime position for a Stanley Cup run, meaning they’ll have to use draft picks and prospects as bait if they want to add anything next week. It’s a shame they don’t have their second-round pick from this season—which they traded to Buffalo for Chris Stewart back in 2015—since they are used so often in rental deals. Jason Pominville

The Wild do however have a fairly stocked cupboard of prospects that could be waived in front of a team looking to get younger. Their drafting the last decade (or longer) though not perfect in the first round has unearthed plenty of talent in later selections. They’ve picked players like Cal Clutterbuck (3rd), Justin Falk (4th), Marco Scandella (2nd), Erik Haula (7th), Darcy Kuemper (6th), Zucker (2nd) and Johan Larsson (2nd) all outside of the first round and found excellent value in each.

If a team really wants to go after youth, they could ask for prospects like Jordan Greenway, who showed off his skills at the most recent World Juniors. Kirill Kaprisov is tearing up the KHL as a 19-year old, and it was recently reported that he’ll play for CSKA next season. Alex Tuch is showing his ability at the AHL level after a dominating NCAA career, and Luke Kunin continues to captain the University of Wisconsin up the college hockey rankings. It would be crazy to trade any of these names for a rental, but if the Wild want to enter the ring of possible long-term upgrades, they have the pieces to do it.

One Player To Watch: F Jason Pominville, who has a big cap-hit and is playing much less due to the emergence of the young guns is a contract that the Wild may look to move out if they’re to make any improvements.

Team Needs

1) Wing Depth – The Wild would like to move Coyle back to center ice if possible, but they’d need a winger who can jump into their top-six to do it. Jannik Hansen has been rumored to be on their radar, but a player like Patrick Eaves seems a better fit. It’s not guaranteed that they’ll do anything, though GM Chuck Fletcher has said that they have some “unproven depth” at forward.

2) Center – The nice thing about having Coyle is that if you can’t find the upgrade at the wing you could always acquire a center instead and leave him out there. Arizona’s Martin Hanzal was quoted today by Chris Hine of the Chicago Tribune as saying he wants to stay in the middle even if traded, which would still be possible for the Wild.

Injury Notes: Goalie Pads, Stastny, Dumba

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Since February 4th, every goaltender in the league has had to wear the new tighter fitting pants in games. While some goalies like Robin Lehner and Pekka Rinne have come out in favor of the new style, others are having difficulty adjusting. Eric Engels of Sportsnet spoke to both Carey Price and Al Montoya about them, who told him they are considering sending pictures of the new bruises they’ve suffered because of the lack of protection. Price in particular showed Engels that he got hit in the inside of his thigh with a shot, where there is almost no protection.

While it’s unclear if the two would actually send the pictures, it is a concern as the league moves forward with smaller equipment. With shots becoming harder and harder in the game, and players moving at a faster pace, protection of goaltenders is still a huge point of contention for the NHL and NHLPA. While the league (and many players) wants higher scoring and believe that reducing equipment would help that, safety is still of a high importance. When a player of Price’s caliber speaks out, the player’s union is sure to listen.

Snapshots: Carlo, Nyquist, Dumba

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After winning their last two games against the San Jose Sharks and Vancouver Canucks, the Boston Bruins are undefeated since firing their long-time head coach Claude Julien. While they’re certain to lose another game this season, the strong play into their bye week (which starts after taking on the Montreal Canadiens at home tonight) has them still in the thick of the playoff race and potential buyers at the trade deadline.

That’s what has Sportsnet’s Ryan Dixon worried, as his latest column speaks to the dangers of trading young Brandon Carlo at the deadline for a short term boost. With Carlo’s emergence this season the Bruins might have a potential top pairing defenseman on their hands and should look no further than his defense partner for a reason not to deal him. Zdeno Chara was traded by the Islanders for immediate scoring help at the draft back in 2001, which looks like one of the worst trades in the team’s history. If the Bruins end up dealing him, they better be very sure that what they bring back can help the team for more than just the immediate future.

Central Division Snapshots: Preds, Wild, Fabbri

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Nashville Predators GM David Poile is no stranger to making major trades. In the last 13 months alone, the veteran executive has completed two blockbuster one-for-one swaps, first acquiring center Ryan Johansen for defenseman Seth Jones then dealing longtime team captain Shea Weber to Montreal for fellow blue liner P.K. Subban. This propensity for making big moves leads Adam Vingan of The Tennessean to wonder whether Nashville will make another headline deal before the trade deadline.

Poile already picked up veteran fourth-line center Vernon Fiddler in a deal from New Jersey and the team has been linked to Colorado center Matt Duchene. But while the Predators could use more offensive flair at the pivot position, Poile is hesitant to sacrifice the one asset just about everyone else wants from him at this point: young defensemen. Poile already sacrificed Jones, who is enjoying a breakout campaign with Columbus, doesn’t seem interested in depleting his defense corps further: “We can’t be doing that all the time, or you won’t have one of the best defenses.” As Vingan notes, Poile will be listening but major trades are tough to pull off in-season so any moves the Preds do make are likely to be similar to the recent acquisitions of Fiddler and Cody McLeod.

Elsewhere in the Central Division:

  • As it stands, the Minnesota Wild are in a comfortable spot in the division, holding a four-point lead over second place Chicago and 15 points ahead of third-place Nashville. Barring an epic collapse, the team is virtually assured of hosting at least a first-round playoff series. As Michael Russo of the Star Tribune writes, this cushion will allow Wild bench boss Bruce Boudreau to experiment with his forward lines and defense pairs in order to help GM Chuck Fletcher better identify what the team’s needs are ahead of the deadline. For instance, Boudreau will slot Charlie Coyle, who has spent much of the season riding shotgun on Eric Staal’s line, at center for tonight’s game against Winnipeg with Alex Tuch moving into the lineup at wing. He’ll also have room to give Mike Reilly and Gustav Olofsson more playing time and if they perform well, it may give Fletcher the confidence needed to move one of the team’s top blue liners in a deal to both save cap space and to acquire help at other positions.
  • According to Jeremy Rutherford of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the St. Louis Blues will for the time being look to internal options to replace Robby Fabbri, who the team just learned will miss the rest of the season with an ACL injury. In the wake of the injury, the team recalled forwards Kenny Agostino, who tallied just the second goal of his NHL career and the first in almost three years yesterday, and Magnus Paajarvi from Chicago of the AHL. The team will have three-plus weeks to figure out whether those two can adequately fill in before investigating the options available on the trade market. Regardless of how the ultimately choose to do so, replacing Fabbri won’t be easy. While he’s had an up-and-down season in 2016-17, the 21-year-old winger is an extremely skilled player and a key part of the team’s top-nine forward group.

Could Stars Follow Columbus, Minnesota Blue Print?

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A year after surprisingly capturing a Central Division title and an appearance in the second round of the postseason, the Dallas Stars have stumbled this season to a 19-20-10 start and are currently three points out of a potential playoff berth. While there is still plenty of time to right the ship, it’s nonetheless fair to say the team has failed to meet preseason expectations. It’s at least conceivable that barring a deep postseason run the Stars could look to make some significant changes this summer. However, as Mike Heika of the Dallas Morning News writes, the Columbus Blue Jackets and Minnesota Wild may have already provided a solid blue print the Stars could follow in their search for success.

Currently Columbus and Minnesota reside among the best teams in the league, which is a far cry from where the were last year. While the Wild made it to the playoffs, they were eliminated in the first round and looked nothing like a Stanley Cup contender. Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets were once again one of the worst teams in the league and appeared to be at least a few years away from contention. However, as Heika points out, each team has benefited immensely from recent coaching changes – with John Tortorella taking over early last season in Columbus and Minnesota turning to Bruce Boudreau this past summer – and that could provide the Stars with a more palatable option than potentially making wholesale roster changes.

Current bench boss Lindy Ruff has had a long and accomplished career as a head coach in this league, first with the Buffalo Sabres and then for the last four in Dallas. On the heels of what can only be considered a successful 2015-16 campaign it might seem unwarranted to move on from Ruff after a season derailed by injuries to several key regulars. Nonetheless, Ruff is in the final season of his contract and it’s feasible general manager Jim Nill may conclude a fresh voice and approach is needed at this point.

However, despite some calls from fans to make a move now while the current campaign can still be saved, Heika advises against such a decision, and suggests waiting until after the season when more candidates will be available. As the scribe notes, Gerard Gallant certainly qualifies as an appealing option and any team interested in hiring might be best served doing so now with so few jobs open. But as Heika points out, a veteran bench boss like Gallant would require a three or four-year guaranteed commitment and it might be best to wait until after the season instead of caving to immediate pressures to go that direction.

Heika also identifies goaltending as an area the Stars could look to upgrade and while their are long-term options available now – Marc-Andre Fleury jumps immediately to mind – he cautions that the team might be better off trying to identify a young, up-and-coming net minder that represents more of an upside play rather than taking a chance on an expensive veteran. Martin Jones and Cam Talbot are two goalies that the scribe references that fit the former category. With teams looking ahead to the expansion draft, several backup types could be made available at a reduced rate as opposed to potentially losing them for nothing to the Vegas Golden Knights.

There is no questioning the impact that Tortorella and Boudreau have had on their respective team’s fortunes this season and it makes sense that the Stars could look to duplicate that success by bringing in their own new coach. It’s an easier move to make than trying to trade an expensive core player and/or trying to reshape the organization with blockbuster acquisitions. Yet there are no certainties regardless of what direction the Stars take. Hiring a new bench boss could pay off in Dallas as it has for Minnesota and Columbus. Or, as has been the case in Florida, the move may not yield the dividends the team hopes for.

Wild Blue Liner Brodin Out With Broken Finger

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Jonas Brodin met with a hand specialist today to determine the severity and treatment options for a broken finger the defenseman suffered last night, reports Michael Russo of the Star Tribune. Wild GM Chuck Fletcher is expecting the blue liner to be out at least “a few weeks” but his absence could be longer depending on whether he’ll need surgery to repair the break. According to Russo, the worst case scenario could keep Brodin sidelined for up to six weeks and given the compressed nature of the NHL schedule this season, it means he could miss as many as 18 games.

Brodin is an important cog on the team’s blue line, averaging the third-most ice time among the team’s defense corps while seeing action in all situations. In 43 games this season, the 23-year-old Swede has three goals and 16 points. That represents a significant uptick from his 2015-16 performance when Brodin registered just seven points in 68 games.

Russo relays that Wild bench boss Bruce Boudreau will reach out to the head coach of the club’s AHL affiliate in Iowa, Derek Lalonde, for input on whom to call up in Brodin’s absence. He speculates the two most likely candidates are Mike Reilly and Gustav Olofsson and would hinge on whether the team would prefer a more offensive-minded option (Reilly) who could fill in on the man-advantage or one who is better in the defensive zone (Gustafsson).

At least in the short term, it appears the team will dress Nate Prosser, though as Russo writes, the veteran coach has not yet decided which side he will play on. Prosser is a right-handed shot and should Boudreau elect to slot the 30-year-old on his natural side, it would suggest one of Mathew Dumba or Christian Folin could be scratched with the call-up from Iowa drawing into the lineup. The alternative would be using Prosser on his off-side with the call-up serving as the extra blue liner.

While losing a proven, top-four defenseman like Brodin is never ideal, the Wild are at least one of the few teams in the league with enough quality blue line depth to survive his absence. In fact, it’s this depth that has led some to wonder whether the team would attempt to parlay one of their defenders into additional scoring help, though Brodin’s injury likely reduces the odds of that possibility.

 

Central Division Snapshots: Haula, Parise, Varlamov

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The Minnesota Wild have been on quite the run recently winning 10 in a row and earning points in all 11 games they’ve played in the month of December. They put that streak on the line tonight when the Wild travel to Nashville to play the Predators. But as Mike Russo of the Star Tribune reports, boosting Minnesota’s chances to extend their streak is the return of forwards Erik Haula, who missed three games with a hip injury, and Zach Parise, who was out for two games with strep throat.

Strep throat has become an all too common occurrence for Parise as he’s come down with the condition four times since the World Cup tournament. Parise considered having his tonsils removed to prevent an additional recurrence but was told by doctors that the surgery would “sideline him for a bit,” as Russo notes. The repeated illnesses have likely contributed to a lackluster start to the season as Parise has registered just five goals in 24 contests, though he seemed to be heating up with four points in the five games prior to coming out of the lineup.

Haula’s return is also a welcome one for the Wild. Minnesota bench boss Bruce Boudreau is glad to be able to slot the 25-year-old back into his usual third-line pivot role.

“Centers a very difficult position up front,” Boudreau said. “[Haula’s] probably going to be a little rusty. Grao played pretty good for us, and now he’s the fourth-line center, so it gives you more things to do if people aren’t going.”

Haula has contributed five goals and 10 points in 23 games while averaging 14:13 of ice time per game. He set career highs in goals and assists last season with 14 and 20 respectively while leading the club in plus-minus with a +21 rating.

Elsewhere in the Central Division:

  • Semyon Varlamov’s troublesome groin is once again keeping the Avalanche’s starting goalie sidelined, according to Terry Frei of The Denver Post. Frei notes that this will be the third stretch of games Varlamov has missed due to the groin and also a wrist ailment. Calvin Pickard, who earned the win in Colorado’s 2 – 1 victory over Chicago Friday night, will be between the pipes against Calgary tonight and Jeremy Smith was recalled from San Antonio to serve as the backup. Smith, 27, has never appeared in an NHL game but has spent eight seasons in the minors, primarily in the AHL, in the Nashville, Boston, Minnesota and now the Colorado organizations. Spencer Martin was up with the team last week but was left in the AHL in order to get some game action.

Snapshots: Oilers, NHL Debuts, Blackhawks, Laine

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The last time the Oilers beat the Blues in St. Louis, Nikolai Khabibulin made 43 saves and the Oilers won 3-0. The Oilers then-top line of Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Jordan Eberle combined for eight points. That was in March of 2013.

Since then, the Oilers have lost four straight in St. Louis by a combined score of 17-8. But last night, the Oilers came back twice from 1-0 and 2-1 deficits to win 3-2 in overtime. The Oilers moved Nugent-Hopkins, normally a center, to the right wing on a line with Leon Draisaitl and Patrick Maroon, and were rewarded with the tying and winning goal from them. The St. Louis-native Maroon tipped in a shot in the third period, leading to a feel-good moment after the game when he was asked about his son, who lives in St. Louis, cheering him on.

Nugent-Hopkins was set up by Connor McDavid in overtime and the Oilers got the victory. TSN’s Ryan Rishaug appeared on Edmonton radio on Tuesday morning and said this about the win: “to be down multiple times to that team in a building where they never win… that’s definitely a ’big boy’ win. They didn’t come by that one easily.”

McDavid and Draisaitl now have a combined 70 points this season, the highest of any duo in the NHL. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are second with 68 points.

  • The Tampa Bay Lightning have dealt with quite a few injuries this season, but out of injury springs opportunity. Jonathan Drouin has stepped up lately, and now there’s opportunity for Tanner Richard to appear in his first NHL game. Richard was initially supposed to make his NHL debut on Saturday night, but his plane was delayed in New York, which lead to him missing his connecting flight to Edmonton. With no chance of making it to Alberta for game time, Ricard was sent back to Syracuse. Richard told Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times that he was “devastated” to miss the game, but had an inkling that he could be recalled for Tuesday. When asked what he expects to bring to the Lightning lineup, Richard said “I’m pretty hated by most teams in the AHL, so that tells me I’m doing an alright job being a little rat.” Richard will play with Brayden Point and J.T. Brown on the fourth line.
  • Also making his NHL debut tonight is Pat Cannone. The 30-year-old center has played 377 games in the AHL, notching 222 points. As Michael Russo put it, the debut will be one for the aged. Cannone has 16 points in 28 games for the Iowa Wild so far this season. Wild coach Bruce Boudreau said “Hey listen, I was in the minors so long, anytime you can bring up a young man to give him a shot at the NHL, I think it’s great.”
  • According to Mark Lazerus, Blackhawks goaltender Corey Crawford is taking part in the team’s morning skate. We reported yesterday that Crawford could start as soon as Friday, which would be under three weeks since his appendectomy. Coach Joel Quenneville said he would like to see Crawford take part in a full practice before returning. While a morning skate is not as intense as a regular practice, it’s still a good step in the road back for Crawford.
  • Notably absent from Chicago’s morning skate is center Artem Anisimov. Anisimov missed the Blackhawks previous game, and it’s not known if he will be in the lineup tonight versus the Senators. So far this season, he has 27 points in 34 games, which puts him on pace to easily surpass his previous career high of 42 which he set last season.
  • After his gorgeous goal on Sunday night versus the Avalanche, where he one-timed a Mark Scheifele pass on a two-on-one, Patrik Laine told a Finnish newspaper that “from a chance like that, I will score 99 times out of 100. The stick will break once.” Laine has 18 goals and 29 points, one behind Scheifele for the Jets’ lead, and five points clear of Auston Matthews for the rookie scoring lead.

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