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Atlantic Notes: Zadina, Holmstrom, Steen

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When Detroit Red Wings rookie forward Filip Zadina takes the ice tonight, it will mark his fifth NHL game. More importantly, it means he is halfway toward burning the first year of his entry-level contract. Under the NHL CBA, an 18- or 19-year-old player may have their entry-level contract “slide” if he does not play a minimum of 10 NHL games in a given season. For the first-year pro Zadina, this looked like a likely outcome for much of the year. The No. 6 overall pick in the 2018 NHL Draft had played exclusively in the AHL this season until late last month, when he was finally recalled by the Red Wings. Now Detroit has a decision to make.

With 14 games remaining in the regular season for a team that is well beyond any playoff hopes, the Red Wings brass must decide if they want to limit Zadina to less than five more games down the stretch, thereby extending his rookie deal by one year, or instead continue to provide NHL experience to an elite young player who is likely to be a regular contributor beginning next season. Zadina, a talented forward who had recorded 31 points in 45 AHL games prior to his recall, projects to see a major raise in his next contract given his draft pedigree and expected production over the next few years, giving Detroit all the more reason to extend his affordable entry-level deal if possible. However, to both appease the young core player and further his development, they may just opt to keep Zadina in Detroit for the remainder of the season at the cost of burning a year off the deal. Either way, Zadina is bound for a return to the Grand Rapids Griffins for a postseason run, so the only question is simply when he is sent back down. Two other players who risk losing their “slide” status are Boston Bruins defenseman Urho Vaakanainen and Carolina Hurricanes forward Martin Necas, both of whom are presently in the AHL and have played a handful of games in the NHL this season and would be near the top of the recall list if their team was to suffer injuries down the stretch or in the postseason.

  • One Red Wings prospect who looks like he may never suit up for the team is Axel Holmstrom. All season long, there has been rumors that the 22-year-old Swedish forward was eyeing a return to Europe when his current contract expired at the end of the season. Although Holmstrom will be a restricted free agent, Detroit can do nothing to keep him in the system if he wishes to leave and can only retain his NHL rights moving forward by making a qualifying offer. The doubt about Holmstrom’s longevity in North America even prompted his KHL rights to be traded this season. However, a new report from Swedish news source Kvall Posten has turned up the heat on the Holmstrom rumors and makes it sound as if the NHL and KHL are both out of the running already. The article states instead that Holmstrom has become a hot commodity back home in Sweden, with several SHL teams reportedly already bidding for his services. In fact, it is stated that two well-known teams have already been priced out. Skelleftea AIK, the team Holmstrom played for prior to coming to North America three years ago, and the Vaxjo Lakers HC, another top contender in SHL this season, are both expected to be out of the running. The remaining bidders are thought to be current league leader Lulea HF, whose GM recently met with Holmstrom in person in Grand Rapids, and HV71, who are believed to have made the highest offer. With this kind of bidding war going on among teams in his home country, it is very unlikely that Holmstrom will be back with Detroit next season. The young forward has been consistent if unspectacular in two full AHL seasons with the Griffins and does not seem all that close to pushing for a regular role with the Red Wings. He is bound to land a greater role and a raise on his current salary of less than $700K if (when) he returns to Sweden.
  • One player looking to make the opposite move – a jump to the NHL – is Boston Bruins prospect Oskar Steen. A sixth-round pick in 2016, Steen immediately looked like a steal for the Bruins. The small, but skilled forward played 47 games in the SHL as an 18-year-old in 2016-17 and then followed it up by making the Swedish World Junior team last year while again playing in 45 SHL games and doubling his previous point total. However, this year he has shed his role player status and blossomed into a top scorer for Farjestad BK. Still just 20, Steen has nevertheless posted 37 points in 44 games to lead all forwards in scoring and help the team to a top playoff seed. His play has begun to garner attention outside of Sweden. The Providence Journal’s Mark Divver notes that Steen is being considered for a spot on Sweden’s entry into the upcoming World Championships, while adding that he is expected to sign with Boston this off-season. Steen will likely have to spend some time in the AHL at first, but is yet another young forward who will push for ice time with the Bruins next year.

Jaden Schwartz Receives Max Fine For Cross-Checking

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Cross-checking is apparently the flavor of the week for the NHL Department of Player Safety. After handing Winnipeg Jets defenseman Ben Chiarot a maximum fine for cross-checking on Monday, they have assigned the same punishment to St. Louis Blues forward Jaden Schwartz, per an announcement. Schwartz will be out $5,000 as a result of his actions, the most he could be fined under the CBA.

The hit in question was on Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Dougie Hamilton in last night’s game between the two teams, a convincing 5-2 Hurricanes win. Late in the first period, Hamilton delivered a hard, but legal check on Schwartz along the boards and Schwartz decided to retaliate with a cross-check up high on Hamilton. The decision cost Schwartz a two-minute minor right away, but has cost him even more in retrospect. It’s another knock against Schwartz in a disappointing season for the 26-year-old winger. Schwartz has just 28 points through 58 games and it could be that his offensive frustration is beginning to boil over into his checking game.

Player Safety might not be done dolling out discipline today. They have also announced that New Jersey Devils forward Kurtis Gabriel will have a hearing this afternoon in regards to a boarding penalty against the Philadelphia Flyers’ Nolan Patrick last night. So too will Winnipeg Jets forward Adam Lowry for what’s being called “high-sticking/slashing” on Nashville Predators forward Filip Forsberg. With the Devils set to face the Boston Bruins tonight, the department will likely act swiftly in their punishment of Gabriel following his hearing, while they can take more time with the Lowry decision as the Jets are off today.

Jets’ Ben Chiarot Receives Max Fine For Cross-Checking

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Even the NHL Department of Player Safety was busy on deadline day. Player Safety has announced that Winnipeg Jets defenseman Ben Chiarot has been issued a maximum fine for cross-checking Arizona Coyotes forward Nick Cousins in Sunday’s game. Per the CBA, Chiarot has been fined $3,763.44, equivalent to about one-fifth of a game check on his $1.6MM salary.

The hit in question came late in the second period with the Jets trailing the Coyotes 3-1. Chiarot delivered a hard cross-check to head/neck area of Cousins and was fortunate to only get a minor penalty on the play. The lack of further in-game punishment was likely a factor in the fine decision. Cousins remained in the game and Arizona held on to win, adding insult to injury in the whole ordeal.

While Chiarot has been known to be a hothead from time to time, it is important to note that Cousins is also a renown instigator. The Coyotes forward uses his ability to annoy the opposition and get them to react as one of the hallmarks of his game. While in this case Chiarot’s response was dangerous and over the top, it’s fair to assume that Cousins initiated the exchange, as he has many times before.

 

Deadline Primer: Buffalo Sabres

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With the trade deadline fast approaching, we continue our look at the situation for each team over the coming weeks. Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs? As we continue with the Atlantic Division, here is a look at the Buffalo Sabres.

By all accounts, Jeff Skinner isn’t going anywhere at the deadline and that’s all Sabres fans should really care about. Whether it’s because the team wants to use all the time they have to re-sign him or whether it’s due to his No-Movement Clause, Skinner is staying put through the end of the season, at the very least.

Beyond Skinner, the Sabres lack any real rental players of value. They also lack much incentive to give up trade capital for rentals of their own; there’s realistically one playoff spot left in the Eastern Conference and Buffalo would need to pass up the surging Carolina Hurricanes and the dynastic Pittsburgh Penguins to get it. The Sabres have overachieved this season, even if their hot start to the year makes it seem like they’ve underachieved of late. No one expected this to be a playoff team, so no one will blame them for holding on to their assets and maybe moving a player or two. At the same time, it’s possible they sneak in and no one would be upset if they made a value addition or two. It’s quite possible that Buffalo stands pat at the deadline, but expect them to dabble in both the buyers’ and sellers’ markets in the coming days.

Record

28-21-7, fifth in the Atlantic Division

Deadline Status

Fence Sitter

Deadline Cap Space

$14.94MM in full-season cap hit, 0/3 used salary cap retention slots, 46/50 contracts per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2019: BUF 1st, STL 1st, SJ 1st, BUF 3rd, SJ 4th, BUF 6th, TOR 6th, BUF 7th
2020: BUF 1st, BUF 2nd, BUF 4th, BUF 5th, BUF 7th, DAL 7th

Trade Chips

Everyone wants a piece of Matt Moulson, right? How about Kevin Porter? Matt Tennyson? Honestly, the Sabres likely won’t be big sellers because there isn’t much to sell. The team’s best – and maybe only – traditional rental is 36-year-old forward Jason Pominville. Pominville got off to a strong start to the season but has been streaky the rest of the way en route to 13 goals and 23 points in 50 games. If a contender is interested in Pominville and can afford to add $5.6MM of salary for ideally a third-line forward, then the Sabres will certainly listen. However, those offers may be few and far between and, if they aren’t impressive, Buffalo might prefer to hang on to the well-like veteran. The other name that might be on the move is Group 6 UFA Danny O’Regan. O’Regan has not seen any NHL action this season after being traded away by the San Jose Sharks last year and will thus earn his free agency as an underutilized 25-year-old per the CBA. Rather than lose him for nothing, the Sabres will likely try to trade the productive minor league forward.

A closer look at the Buffalo roster also reveals some non-UFA rental candidates. With excellent depth on the blue line in both veterans and promising youngsters, the Sabres are more than able to sell from a position of strength. Impending RFA Nathan Beaulieu has been a poor fit in Buffalo for two years now since coming over from the Montreal Canadiens. The team owes Beaulieu a $2.5MM qualifying offer this summer to retain him, which seems unlikely. The Sabres could definitely treat Beaulieu like any other expiring asset and trade him away. Jake McCabe is also an RFA in need of a new contract, but is a full-time contributor in Buffalo and seems far less likely to be traded. A team looking to improve their depth in net could look at RFA Scott Wedgewood as an option.

As for players with term, the Sabres would surely like to move Vladimir Sobotka. The 31-year-old has another season remaining on his contract at $3.5MM and has been a major disappointment in his first year in Buffalo. Takers may be hard to come by, but the team will likely take what they can get for a largely unnecessary roster piece. With a better fit, Sobotka could still prove to be an effective bottom-six forward. The buried contract of gritty forward Scott Wilson would also be nice to move, but unlikely. Of course, if anyone made a half-reasonable offer for expensive and ineffective forward Kyle Okposo, he would also be moved, but such a deal won’t happen.

Five Players To Watch For: D Nathan Beaulieu, F Jason Pominville, F Danny O’Regan, F Vladimir Sobotka, D Matt Tennyson

Team Needs

1) Secondary Scoring: Buffalo is very top-heavy on offense, with the first line doing the vast majority of the scoring. The young roster forwards should improve next season and the team should be players in the free agent market, but as for this year they could use a boost. A cheap rental would help the Sabres stay in the playoff hunt. However, the ideal addition would be a young player with team control. Nikolay Goldobin, Tobias Rieder, and Nick Cousins are among several RFA names rumored to be available.

2) Forward Prospects: The Sabres have both established and high-potential young forwards on the roster right now. They also have a few promising prospects in Europe and three first-round picks this year. Basically, they’re in great shape with players and projects. However, they lack “prospects”, that intermediate level of guys who could push for a spot in camp or be a difference-maker in the AHL in the next year or two. The current young “stars” of the Rochester Americans have left much to be desired this year. In potentially moving one of their more valuable trade pieces, it would make sense for Buffalo to target some pro-ready forwards.

The Anaheim Ducks And The Issue Of “Tagging”

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Anaheim Ducks GM Bob Murray has been a busy man this season, orchestrating four of the past seven trades in the NHL and nine deals overall since the regular season began. Yet, as his team continues to dwell on the fringes of the Western Conference playoff picture, Murray is left to ponder other moves to either improve his roster or sell off what few valuable rental pieces he has. Outside of recent additions Michael Del Zotto and Derek Grant, who are unlikely to be flipped, the Ducks have only three other notable impending unrestricted free agents: forwards Jakob Silfverberg and Brian Gibbons and currently injured goaltender Ryan Miller. Many have speculated that Silfverberg could be the next player shipped out of town, but Murray was quick to state recently that he will continue to work toward an extension with the top-six winger instead.

However, when it comes to either re-signing Silfverberg or adding another piece before the trade deadline, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman cautions that it may be easier said than done due to an obscure salary cap rule. “Tagging” is a rule in the NHL Collective Bargaining Agreement that limits teams from surpassing the current season’s salary cap in terms of future salaries. The wording of the CBA is as follows:

Until such time as the Club has or makes Payroll Room in the current year in excess of such Tagged Payroll Room, the Club may not engage in any Player transactions requiring Payroll Room, including but not limited to, acquiring an SPC or “extending” or entering into a new SPC.

In layman’s terms, this simply means that teams are not permitted to acquire players with non-expiring contracts or agree to new contracts with current players that would put a future season’s payroll above the existing salary cap. Although the current salary cap ceiling of $79.5MM is almost guaranteed to increase next season, perhaps even substantially, and even though cap hits toll as the season progresses, allowing teams to acquire players they otherwise could not have afforded earlier in the year, they still may not surpass the current cap limit when it comes to the future.

For the Ducks, this rule is especially topical. Anaheim has 16 non-waiver exempt players under contract next season at a total of $70.4MM, the most committed salary of any team in the league. Projecting their 23-man roster payroll for next season easily exceeds $74MM. Even after cutting future salary in the Andrew Cogliano–Drew Shore swap, the Ducks have little room to maneuver while avoiding a “tagging” problem. Without moving out another long-term player, Anaheim would likely struggle to extend Silfverberg in the current league year to a salary exceeding $5-6MM. Given that Silfverberg is currently underpaid at just a $3.75MM AAV, the proven two-way forward is very likely to land in that range. Similarly, the Ducks would be hard-pressed to add a player with term remaining at a cap hit in or above that range. Even if they did find a way to make one of those moves or the other, it would severely limit their roster flexibility the rest of the way this season.

The question thus becomes, if extending Silfverberg in the current season is not a viable option, should the team consider moving him? Even if they have an oral agreement with Silfverberg to sign a new contract this off-season, they cannot truly know that he is committed to staying in Anaheim until pen meets paper. The Ducks could easily fall out of the playoff race following the trade deadline and Silfverberg could decide he would rather test the market. Meanwhile, the team should be able to recoup some nice trade capital if they did decide to trade Silfverberg and could always re-sign him this summer. Even though Murray seems intent on keeping Silfverberg around, the looming shadow of the “tagging” rule makes it a much tougher situation.

Montreal’s Phillip Danault Receives Max Fine For Tripping

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A late-game scuffle is going to cost Montreal Canadiens forward Phillip Danault. The Department of Player Safety announced today that Danault has been served with a $5,000 fine for a “dangerous trip” on Florida Panthers defenseman Aaron Ekblad, the maximum fine for that type of penalty under the NHL CBA. While it the maximum amount that Player Safety may fine Danault, $5,000 is less than one-seventh of Danault’s next game check on his $3MM salary this season.

The incident in question occurred late in the third period, when Danault lodged his stick underneath the left knee of Ekblad after a scrum along the boards. Danault then used that leverage to upend Ekblad, causing him to topple to the ice. Ekblad responded immediately, chasing down Danault before the pair dropped the gloves. However, it was again Danault getting the takedown as Ekblad was once gain forced to the ice. Danault received a two-minute minor on the play for tripping in addition to the five-minute major for fighting that both players received.

While Player Safety properly saw fit to punish Danault further for the dangerous takedown and the Montreal center will be out a decent amount of money, it is safe to say that last night’s events were far more damaging for Ekblad. This was the first meeting between the Panthers and Canadiens since the preseason, when Max Domi earned a suspension for the remainder of the preseason for sucker punching an unwilling Ekblad. Many expected the big Florida defenseman to seek his retribution against Domi in this re-match, but again the 6’4″, 220-lb. Ekblad shied away from confrontation despite knowing that the much smaller Domi is usually a willing combatant. Instead, Ekblad waited until the last minute before engaging with Danault, not known for his physical prowess, and still ended up “losing” the fight after being taken down by the smaller Danault. It was Ekblad’s first bout of the season and only the fifth of his career, as the Panthers’ defensive cornerstone hasn’t felt the need to fight to prove that that he has the toughness to match his size and strength. Now that smaller Canadiens forwards have gotten the best of him twice, will he feel the need to prove himself?

Allowable Movement During The Holiday Roster Freeze

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The annual Holiday Roster Freeze is now in effect although there are several exceptions that allow for roster movement to occur over the next several days.  While there won’t be any trades or regular waiver activity during that time, here are the allowable transactions that can occur during the freeze.

Recalls

While there is a limitation on players being sent to the minors during this time, players can still be recalled at any point so if someone gets hurt over the next couple of days, a replacement can be brought up.

Demotions For Players On Emergency Recalls

Anyone designated as an emergency recall can be assigned back to the minors at any point during the freeze as long as they don’t have to pass through waivers to return.  The threshold for a normally waiver-eligible player to require waivers to be sent back down after being brought up on an emergency recall is ten games.

Demotions For Players On Regular Recalls

Anyone brought up on a regular recall as of December 11th is eligible to be sent down through December 23rd at 11:59 PM local time.  There will likely be an influx of demotions this weekend once teams have played their final game before the Holiday Break to get those players off the salary cap for a few days.  The exception to this rule is any player that becomes waiver-eligible between the 11th and the 23rd by playing their tenth game or spending their thirtieth day on an NHL roster since last clearing waivers.

Activating Someone Off Of LTIR

Section 16.5(d)(i) of the CBA grants teams the ability to make any transactions necessary in order to get back into salary cap compliance after activating a player off long-term injury reserve.  Teams using that provision are allowed to exceed the cap during that time but must get back under it in order to bring the injured player back onto the active roster.

With all of this in mind, there will still likely be a fair amount of transactions through the weekend before the league shuts down for three days beginning on the 24th.  Teams will be permitted to resume making trades or placing players on waivers on December 28th at 12:01 AM local time.

Jujhar Khaira To Have Hearing With Department Of Player Safety

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The Department of Player Safety has some work to do today, after announcing they will have a hearing with Edmonton Oilers forward Jujhar Khaira today. Khaira cross-checked St. Louis Blues defenseman Vince Dunn in the face after the two had collided and Dunn had delivered a cross-check of his own. For his actions, which appeared to hit Khaira in the shoulder first, Dunn has received a $1,942.20 fine— the maximum allowable under the CBA—but will avoid suspension.

Khaira has established himself as a relatively effective physical bottom-six presence this season, recording 13 points in 33 games. Despite only two of those points being goals, the total actually puts him (amazingly) fifth among all Edmonton forwards in scoring on the season. He’s done that despite averaging fewer than 10 minutes of even-strength ice time per game, and seeing virtually no powerplay time. While he doesn’t project as a big-time scoring threat, that kind of production will be missed on a team that still struggles to find any consistent secondary scoring.

Since the hearing is not of the in-person variety, Khaira will receive a suspension of fewer than five games if at all. It seems likely that he could get one or two given the violent nature of the cross-check, though nothing is certain until the hearing is over.

Escrow Rate Raised For The Second Quarter Of The Season

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We’re still a season away from the likely outcome of the CBA being re-opened for negotiation but some news came out on Monday that will undoubtedly play an important role in those talks. Larry Brooks of the New York Post reports (Twitter link) that the escrow rate for the second quarter of this season has been increased from 11.5% to 13.5% due to the NHL lowering its overall revenue projections.

Escrow is the amount of extra pay withheld from each paycheque.  It is withheld to help ensure a 50/50 split of Hockey Related Revenues (HRR) between the players and owners.  Once the overall HRR has been determined (a process that takes a while), a percentage of the withheld amount is then refunded to each player.

This has become more and more of an issue in recent years; as the salary cap has continued to grow, so too has the annual escrow rate while the percentage of salary lost has grown in that time.  Back in 2016, TSN’s Frank Seravalli provided an overview of the percentages withheld and refunded as well as the net salary lost by each player over the first few years of the escrow system.  The end result wasn’t pretty for the players.

As a result, the NHLPA lately has opted to lessen their annual 5% inflator to the Upper Limit in an effort to lessen the amount of escrow each season.  That strategy had been reasonably successful for a few seasons before this news came out.  The league factored that approach into their recent salary cap projection of $83MM.

This particular issue didn’t garner a lot of focus during the last CBA negotiations but that’s going to change for the next talks now that the effects of it are now known.  The NHLPA will likely want to attack this on a couple of fronts by attempting to place a ceiling on the escrow percentage while seeking to redefine HRR by pushing to include other revenue streams that are not a part of it.  For example, expansion fees such as the $500MM paid by Vegas and $650MM to be paid by Seattle are not included in HRR as things currently stand nor are potential relocation fees.

Escrow was already a hot-button issue for the players heading into the season and the news that it’s now going back up will only make it stand out to them even more.  As we get closer to September 2019 when both sides can opt out of the current CBA, expect to hear a lot more about this issue in the months to come.

Snapshots: Draft Age, Capitals, Foligno, Fowler

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Although we’re still nearly a full year away from potentially having CBA talks officially reopening, Larry Brooks of the New York Post mentions some of the early discussion points among the informal talks that have been held so far.  Perhaps most noteworthy among them is the NHL’s preference to move to a draft age of 19 instead of 18 as it is currently.  It would certainly aid in the scouting and evaluation process for teams but at the same time, it would prevent the top young players from making the jump to the NHL right away, something we’ve seen more of in recent years.  The ability to reopen the CBA comes next September and these early discussions may wind up going a long way towards determining whether a deal can be reached or if another work stoppage will be on the horizon.

Elsewhere around the league:

  • The Capitals aren’t expected to have center Evgeny Kuznetsov or winger T.J. Oshie back in the lineup on Monday in Montreal, notes Isabelle Khurshudyan of the Washington Post. Both players are dealing with head injuries and are listed as day-to-day.  Washington may have goalie Braden Holtby available though as he took part in practice with the team today after missing the past three games.
  • Nick Foligno has rejoined the Blue Jackets after missing their last game due to a personal matter, reports Aaron Portzline of The Athletic (Twitter link). After a down season in 2017-18, the winger is off to a better start this season with six goals and six assists in 19 games, good for a tie for fifth in team scoring.
  • While the Ducks were originally planning to provide an update regarding defenseman Cam Fowler today, they’ve decided to wait a little longer before providing an estimate of how long he’ll be out, notes Elliott Teaford of the Orange County Register (Twitter link). Fowler underwent successful surgery to repair multiple facial fractures but it certainly sounds like he’ll be out for a while.  That makes the news that fellow blueliner Hampus Lindholm is on injured reserve even worse for Anaheim.

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