- Carolina defenseman Jake Gardiner has declared himself ready to return from the upper-body injury that has caused him to miss five straight games, notes Michael Smith of the Hurricanes’ team site (Twitter link). Officially, he is listed as a game-time decision for tomorrow’s game against Florida. Gardiner has seven assists in 16 contests this season but is averaging a career-low 15:55 per game.
Hurricanes Rumors
Hurricanes Sign Beck Warm To Entry-Level Contract
The Hurricanes have added some goaltending depth to their system as CapFriendly reports (Twitter link) that they’ve signed Beck Warm to a two-year, entry-level contract. Notably, while future contracts are eligible to be signed now, the contract begins this season and breaks down as follows:
2020-21: $725K NHL salary (including $25K signing bonus), $60K AHL salary
2021-22: $775K NHL salary (including $25K signing bonus), $60K AHL salary
The 21-year-old went undrafted after a four-year WHL career that ended with Edmonton where he had a 2.30 GAA with a .915 SV% in 15 games for the Oil Kings before the pandemic hit. However, he did well enough to earn a one-year AHL contract with the Chicago Wolves of the AHL back in November, a team that Carolina is sharing this season with their affiliate in Charlotte withdrawing from the 2020-21 season due to the pandemic. Warm has played in four games for the Wolves so far, posting a 2.25 GAA along with a .940 SV% and clearly showed the Hurricanes enough to convert him to an NHL deal.
While Warm is probably sixth on the depth chart for this season, there is definitely room for him to move up for 2021-22. As things stand, all five of their other goalies are unsigned for next year; Petr Mrazek, James Reimer, and Antoine Bibeau are all unrestricted free agents while Alex Nedeljkovic and Jeremy Helvig will be restricted free agents. At this point, it’s unlikely that all five will be re-signed so Warm, who was immediately re-assigned to the Wolves, should be in line for more playing time next season but for now, he’ll remain in a three-way timeshare in Chicago.
Brett Pesce Fined For Tripping Incident
- The Department of Player Safety doesn’t typically issue discipline within hours of an incident occurring but that’s what happened to Hurricanes defenseman Brett Pesce as the league quickly announced a fine of $5K for a tripping incident on Detroit forward Robby Fabbri in the second period of Thursday’s game. It is the first time in Pesce’s career that he has received some sort of supplemental discipline from the league.
Extension Talks Stall Between Hurricanes And Dougie Hamilton
Last week, word came out that contract extension talks had cooled between the Hurricanes and RFA winger Andrei Svechnikov. Now, it appears that this isn’t the only stalled contract negotiation Carolina has with a pending free agent as Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic reports (subscription link) that this is also the case with defenseman Dougie Hamilton with talks basically being nonexistent for the past month.
The 27-year-old is off to a bit of a quieter start to his season compared to 2019-20 but has still made an impact offensively with 14 points in 22 games. Of course, he also contributes in his own end and is once again logging heavy minutes, averaging over 22 minutes per game. These are top-pairing numbers, something that his agent J.P. Barry has surely communicated to Carolina GM Don Waddell.
LeBrun suggests that Hamilton’s camp is likely going to want to use Alex Pietrangelo’s deal signed in the fall ($8.8MM AAV) as a valid comparable with an asking price coming in a bit below that. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes may view Pietrangelo’s replacement in Torey Krug ($6.5MM AAV) as a better starting point.
That’s a considerable gap to try to bridge if those are indeed the numbers being suggested which is why LeBrun wonders if this could be a situation that doesn’t get resolved until closer to the July 28th opening of unrestricted free agency. While that strategy has worked before, it also didn’t with St. Louis and Pietrangelo just last year and Hamilton will be in a similar situation as the top blueliner available on the open market. As we saw last year, even in this environment, the top free agents have still been able to command a significant contract and there’s no reason to think that this won’t be the case here.
With more than four months between now and the market opening up, there’s still plenty of time to get something done and with expansion pending, delaying things isn’t necessarily the worst idea. Given his status, Hamilton is a strong candidate to land a no-move clause on his next deal and if it was to be signed before Seattle’s team is selected, he’d become a mandatory protected player while if they wait, it’s easier to leave a pending unrestricted free agent unprotected, allowing them to keep an extra player. It’s not without its risks though as the Kraken would get an exclusive negotiating period and the closer someone gets to free agency, the temptation to test the market likely grows. That’s one of the decisions that will be weighing on Waddell in the weeks and months ahead.
Snapshots: Penguins, Waite, Fines
The Pittsburgh Penguins are under new leadership, so no one has a clear idea of how they will operate at the upcoming trade deadline. Still, Josh Yohe of The Athletic did his best to create a “most-likely-to-leave” list, ranking the Penguins players and evaluating their future with the organization. While Kris Letang and Evgeni Malkin remain in their own categories because of the legacy attachment to the franchise, some other rankings could raise some eyebrows.
Specifically, Yohe sees a potential trade coming for Marcus Pettersson, given the team’s left-handed depth and the young defenseman’s contract situation. Pettersson, 24, signed a five-year extension worth more than $20MM in the middle of last season, before the team brought in Mike Matheson (and his hefty contract). With John Marino’s new contract kicking in next season the Penguins have quite a bit of capital tied up on defense, which could lead to someone having to be moved out.
- The Montreal Canadiens announced last night that Stephane Waite, the team’s goaltending coach, had been relieved of his duties and Sean Burke would take over as director of goaltending. Montreal GM Marc Bergevin confirmed to reporters including Arpon Basu of The Athletic that Waite was fired during the second period of last night’s game and the decision was not based on anything that happened recently, but a “pattern” that he had noticed. Burke was already under contract with the team through the end of the season and has not been given an extension at this time.
- Nino Niederreiter has been fined $5,000 for his goaltender interference on Juuse Saros last night, the maximum allowable under the CBA. Niederreiter collided with Saros behind the net, making some contact with his head, and the goaltender left the game with an injury. The Carolina Hurricanes forward will avoid suspension, though this incident will be considered during any future supplementary discipline.
Hurricanes Targeting Next Sunday For Petr Mrazek's Return
- It appears that Carolina’s wait to get their starting goalie back is almost over. GM Don Waddell told Luke DeCock of the Raleigh News and Observer (Twitter link) that the Hurricanes are targeting next Sunday’s game against Florida for Petr Mrazek to make his return from a thumb injury sustained late last month that required surgery. Carolina has actually done relatively well without Mrazek in the lineup, winning nine of 15 games since he was injured (including the game it occurred) but having their number one back in the fold will give them a nice boost as they look to work their way up the division.
Extension Talks Cool Between Hurricanes And Andrei Svechnikov
Over the offseason, Hurricanes GM Don Waddell had indicated that one of his priorities was to get winger Andrei Svechnikov signed to a contract extension. The pending restricted free agent is now in the final year of his entry-level contract and has been a big part of Carolina’s success over the past couple of seasons. However, he’s in a bit of a slump as of late with just one goal – an empty-netter – over the last 11 games. As his on-ice play has slowed down, so too have his contract talks, reports Luke DeCock of the Raleigh News and Observer.
Although discussions on this deal started back in the offseason, Svechnikov’s agent Todd Diamond indicated that it may take until the summer to get something done with the shortened season also acting as an impediment in talks:
Things are kind of status quo. There’s a time and place to have deeper talks. There’s just so many games right now, it’s not the right environment for it. It may take into the offseason.
While Carolina would certainly like to get Svechnikov signed to a long-term deal, a bridge contract certainly would seem to make more sense on the surface at this point. They already have more than $53MM in commitments for next season, per CapFriendly, and the 20-year-old is hardly the only one in need of a new contract. Defenseman Dougie Hamilton is a pending unrestricted free agent while their goalie tandem of Petr Mrazek and James Reimer are also UFA-eligible. Getting deals done to re-sign or replace them and round out the rest of the roster doesn’t make a long-term contract that buys out some UFA-eligible years the most viable of options. Team owner Tom Dundon acknowledged to DeCock that a bridge deal is the likeliest route they’ll take and is quite confident in getting an agreement in place:
It’s easy, because he’s ours, we’re going to pay him fair and get it done. That’s just when not if. We want to get it done. These are fairly easy deals to get done. The market, if you look at the bridge deals that have been done, it’s not that hard.
Svechnikov will be entering the RFA market this offseason without arbitration eligibility, something that he needs one more year of service time to reach. Even with the lower goal output as of late, he still has 16 points in 19 games to sit one off the team lead and had a 24-goal, 61-point campaign in 2019-20. Accordingly, even a short-term deal could creep into the $5MM range but that would still allow the Hurricanes to have enough cap flexibility to take care of some of those other free agents. It just looks like it’s going to take a little while longer for them to get a deal done.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Hurricanes Begin Extension Talks With Rod Brind’Amour
Hurricanes head coach Rod Brind’Amour is one of a handful of head coaches around the NHL that are in the final year of their respective contracts. Carolina has certainly shown considerable improvement under his watch over his two-plus seasons there and not surprisingly, they have started talks regarding an extension, Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic reported in a recent Insider Trading segment.
Given how strong the Hurricanes have been – they’re 96-58-13 since Brind’Amour was promoted to the position back in 2018 – the 50-year-old is well-positioned to land a sizable raise. Many recent deals handed out to proven head coaches have been in the $3MM to $5MM range though to be fair, a lot of those came before the pandemic and the economic environment is much different now.
Having said that, Carolina has been a team that has been a bit stingy when it comes to their off-ice personnel, instead opting to concentrate its financial resources on its on-ice talent, a strategy that has worked so far. But there are undoubtedly teams keeping tabs on this situation, LeBrun notes, and if Brind’Amour was to make it to the open market, he would get interest from elsewhere. In his latest column for The Athletic (subscription link), Hurricanes owner Tom Dundon expressed confidence that an extension will get done and Brind’Amour in the past has said that he only wants to coach in Carolina. Until that deal gets done though, he remains their most intriguing pending free agent.
Injury Notes: Lundqvist, Teravainen, Merzlikins
Henrik Lundqvist underwent heart surgery last month, at the very least pausing his legendary NHL career for the moment. Earlier this month he let his fans know that things were going well in his recovery and today tweeted that he’s back on the ice. An attached video has him in full Washington Capitals gear, still an odd sight after spending his entire career to this point with the New York Rangers.
Lundqvist is still not expected to play this season, but his contract was not actually terminated and these updates at least open the door a crack for his playing career to continue at some point. Even if it doesn’t, it’s still great to see him healthy enough to get back on the ice.
More injury updates from around the league:
- The Carolina Hurricanes announced that Teuvo Teravainen has been diagnosed with a concussion, likely from a Nikita Zadorov hit on February 19. The star forward has already missed a pair of games and it is not clear when he’ll be cleared to return. If you haven’t been paying attention to Carolina, you might have missed that Teravainen has turned into one of the most consistent offensive performers in the NHL over the last few seasons. After breaking out with 64 points in 2017-18, he has scored 148 points in his last 162 regular season games, including nine this year. The 26-year-old is only in the second season of a five-year deal signed with Carolina in 2019.
- The Columbus Blue Jackets have placed Elvis Merzlikins on injured reserve for the second time this season, this time retroactive to February 20. He suffered an upper-body injury in that game and is considered week-to-week. Matiss Kivlenieks has been promoted from the taxi squad to serve as the backup for Joonas Korpisalo, but this will once again test the goaltending depth of the organization. Korpisalo hasn’t been good this year, registering an .889 save percentage in his 13 appearances, and Kivlenieks has just six games of NHL experience.
Poll: NHL’s “Thanksgiving Trend” Revisited
Fans of the NHL are sure to be familiar with the deeper meaning that American Thanksgiving holds each season. With unrelenting consistency, the NHL’s standings on the final Thursday of November have had great predictive ability when compared to the final regular season standings. In fact, over the past seven years the Thanksgiving standings have been about 75% accurate at forecasting eventual playoff teams, predicting 12 of 16 spots on average. Even though American Thanksgiving only rolls around less than two months into the season, three out of four teams in a playoff spot at that time will have retained their postseason berth when the season ends.
The 2019-20 season of course did not have a standard postseason, but if it had then the Thanksgiving trend would have proved even more prophetic in a shortened campaign. Last year, in which teams were limited to between 68 and 71 games apiece prior to the early termination of the regular season, the Thanksgiving standings would have predicted 13 of 16 playoff teams in the standard format. Of the three teams that would have slid out of the postseason, the Florida Panthers trailed the Toronto Maple Leafs by .014 points percentage in the Atlantic Division and the Winnipeg Jets missed out by a measly .001 points percentage behind the Calgary Flames as the final Western Conference wild card. The Thanksgiving standings were that close to predicting 15 of 16 playoff teams in the shortened season, with the unexpected slow start for the Vegas Golden Knights and hot start for the Arizona Coyotes being the other unsurprising course correction.
But how does this trend impact a season that didn’t even begin until well after American Thanksgiving? Based on total games played by Thanksgiving over the past few seasons, Thanksgiving represents about the 30% progress through the NHL season. In the current 56-game season, that comes out to about the 17-game mark. Although postponements and rescheduling have created a wide discrepancy in games played among teams this year, the league as a whole passed that 17-game average on Saturday: Happy Thanksgiving. Admittedly, the 2020-21 campaign does have a different playoff model as well, one that is somewhat stricter than the last few years without the fallback of a wildcard spot for a team on the fifth-place fringe in their division. Yet, it is still a 16-team postseason and the Thanksgiving trend should hold. Using points percentage to rank the standings (the stat may end up determining playoff position for a second consecutive season anyhow) and adjusting for the season’s makeshift divisions, here is the current “Thanksgiving” outlook:
North Division East Division
Toronto Maple Leafs (.789) Boston Bruins (.733)
Montreal Canadiens (.625) Philadelphia Flyers (.679)
Winnipeg Jets (.618) Washington Capitals (.594)
Edmonton Oilers (.600) Pittsburgh Penguins (.594)____
Calgary Flames (.472) New Jersey Devils (.583)
Vancouver Canucks (.405) New York Islanders (.559)
Ottawa Senators (.237) New York Rangers (.469)
Buffalo Sabres (.429)
West Division Central Division
Vegas Golden Knights (.700) Carolina Hurricanes (.781)
Colorado Avalanche (.679) Florida Panthers (.750)
St. Louis Blues (.611) Tampa Bay Lightning (.700)
Minnesota Wild (.571) Dallas Stars (.583)
Los Angeles Kings (.531) Chicago Blackhawks (.579)
Arizona Coyotes (.500) Columbus Blue Jackets (.526)
San Jose Sharks (.500) Nashville Predators (.412)
Anaheim Ducks (.417) Detroit Red Wings (.325)
Now this begs the question, especially seeing how accurate the Thanksgiving standings were in last year’s shortened season but also accounting for the many disruptions for a number of teams early this season, who is the trend currently overlooking? Which teams currently outside the playoff picture, if any, do you think will make the postseason when all is said and done later this season? Use the comments section below as well to discuss which teams may fall out of the postseason and whether you feel the Thanksgiving trend will apply this season.
Which Of These Teams Will Buck The "Thanksgiving" Trend And Make The Playoffs?
New York Islanders
23.09%
(263 votes)
Chicago Blackhawks
18.88%
(215 votes)
Los Angeles Kings
9.66%
(110 votes)
None - "Thanksgiving" goes 16/16
8.96%
(102 votes)
Columbus Blue Jackets
7.73%
(88 votes)
Calgary Flames
6.41%
(73 votes)
New Jersey Devils
5.62%
(64 votes)
New York Rangers
4.39%
(50 votes)
Arizona Coyotes
3.69%
(42 votes)
Vancouver Canucks
3.69%
(42 votes)
Buffalo Sabres
2.19%
(25 votes)
San Jose Sharks
1.58%
(18 votes)
Detroit Red Wings
1.49%
(17 votes)
Nashville Predators
1.23%
(14 votes)
Anaheim Ducks
0.79%
(9 votes)
Ottawa Senators
0.61%
(7 votes)
Total Votes: 1,139