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Johnny Gaudreau To Test Free Agency

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As first reported by TSN’s Pierre LeBrun, the Calgary Flames aren’t expected to reach an agreement with top free-agent forward Johnny Gaudreau prior to the market opening tomorrow at noon Eastern time. He’ll test free agency and hit the open market as a result.

Gaudreau and Calgary haven’t come to an agreement despite steadily increasing offers from general manager Brad Treliving to get him to stay. It was reported earlier today that Calgary had offered Gaudreau an eight-year deal worth more than $10MM per season. Gaudreau either believes he can get more on the open market tomorrow, or he simply wants a change of scenery out of Alberta.

After his electric 115-point season, he’ll have a certain handful of teams willing to pony up eight figures to get his services. While the Philadelphia Flyers have been linked to him constantly for years, they’ve failed to clear enough cap space in order to make signing him a realistic possibility. One team with loads of cap space that’s a logical fit is the New Jersey Devils, who could launch themselves into playoff contention with a Gaudreau/Jack Hughes connection up front.

No matter what, Gaudreau is slated to join the more-than-$10MM cap hit club tomorrow. He’d be the 15th player in the league currently on an eight-figure deal and the only left wing aside from the Rangers’ Artemi Panarin.

Latest On Johnny Gaudreau

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With less than 12 hours remaining before they lose the ability to offer an extra year, the Calgary Flames are putting forward their best offer for Johnny Gaudreau. Frank Seravalli of Daily Faceoff tweets that Calgary has offered an eight-year contract worth more than $10MM per season, which would make the pending free agent winger one of the highest-paid players in the NHL. He notes that if Gaudreau leaves Calgary tomorrow “it likely won’t be because of money.”

Unlike free agency itself, which doesn’t open until midway through Wednesday, a team’s right to sign one of its own players to an eight-year deal expires at midnight (EST). That means if there’s no deal by tomorrow and Gaudreau is to land more than this $80MM+ on the table from Calgary, he would need to sign a seven-year deal worth at least $11.43MM per season. That number would put him fifth in the entire league, behind only Connor McDavid, Artemi Panarin, Auston Matthews, and Erik Karlsson in terms of cap hit.

Total money isn’t always the deciding factor though, especially not for NHL players (or at least their agents) who can see the salary cap rising significantly in a few years. That extra year for Gaudreau might not be as important as seeing what kind of teams are interested, and what is the best fit for his career moving forward.

The Flames, of course, will have a huge hole in their lineup if Gaudreau decides to leave–and a bunch of cap space to fill it with. The team currently sits with more than $26MM in room, though that doesn’t factor in extensions for Matthew Tkachuk, Andrew Mangiapane, and Oliver Kylington, who are all restricted free agents.

Gaudreau was the unanimous top selection in our UFA list, following his outstanding 115-point season.

Free Agent Focus: Calgary Flames

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Free agency is now less than a week away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Calgary Flames.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Matthew Tkachuk – While the contract negotiations between the Flames and Gaudreau have soaked up most of the headlines, the team’s upcoming negotiations with Matthew Tkachuk are of equal (if not greater) importance. Tkachuk is a 24-year-old player coming off a 104-point season. He’s a big, mean power forward who can score at an elite level. Those players are tough to find and Tkachuk is a unique player when you look at the landscape of superstar wingers across the NHL. If the Flames are serious about wanting to compete for many years moving forward, retaining Tkachuk on a long-term contract is something they simply have to do. But it’s not entirely up to them. Tkachuk is getting precariously close to hitting unrestricted free agency, and he could simply walk himself there by taking his $9MM qualifying offer and then hitting the market next summer. With a $9MM qualifying offer in his hands, that could potentially be seen as the floor for any long-term extension the Flames offer Tkachuk. With a trip to unrestricted free agency only a year away, it wouldn’t be surprising if Tkachuk hit double digits on the average annual value of a long-term deal in Calgary.

F Andrew Mangiapane – After two consecutive seasons as a full-time NHL-er, it looked as though Mangiapane’s long-term NHL projection was quite clear. He had scored 32 points in both years, and his goal totals were consistent as well, with 17 in 2020-21 and 18 in 2021-22. Mangiapane looked like a solid, high-energy middle-six winger with some scoring touch. This year, though, Mangiapane reached new heights in offensive production, finishing the year with 35 goals and 55 points. Mangiapane also offers a two-way game as well, and he averaged 1:17 time-on-ice per game on the Flames’ penalty kill, a kill that ranked sixth in the NHL. While some might point to Mangiapane’s 18.9% shooting percentage as an indication that his goal-scoring was a fluke, Mangiapane actually had a higher shooting percentage in 2020-21 and has been able to sustain a shooting percentage above 15% in each of his three seasons as a productive NHL regular. The larger concern with Mangiapane’s goal-scoring might be how streaky it was, as Mangiapane burst out the gates at the start of the regular season only to slow down as the year wore on. Still, even with that concern, Mangiapane has lined himself up for a nice contract extension. Whether that extension comes from the Flames remains to be seen, as his 35-goal performance may have priced him out of a Flames team that’s currently attempting to sign two other wingers to mega-extensions in Tkachuk and Gaudreau.

D Oliver Kylington – There was a time when Flames defenseman Oliver Kylington was seen as a bit of a “bust.” The Stockholm native had struggled to make any mark at the NHL level in his limited action in 2018-19 and 2019-20, and frequently played with the kind of reckless abandon that did not endear himself to his coaches. Under Darryl Sutter, though, Kylington’s game has become more polished, and Kylington has learned how to better leverage his tools to have success in an NHL that harshly punishes defensive mistakes. He finished with 31 points in 73 games in 2021-22 and was a top-four defenseman on a strong Flames team, averaging over 18 minutes of ice time per game. Kylington’s transitional game fits what’s expected of modern NHL defensemen, and his level of offensive production despite ranking outside the top ten among Flames skaters in power-play time-on-ice is impressive. A short-term deal could be wise if the Flames wish to keep his price tag low to maximize their current competitive window, although a long-term deal could be better if the Flames believe Kylington will continue his upward trajectory.

Other RFA’s: F Matthew Phillips, F Martin Pospisil, F Adam Ruzicka, F Eetu Tuulola, D Johannes Kinnvall, D Colton Poolman, G Tyler Parsons

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Johnny Gaudreau – The Flames believe they can compete for a Stanley Cup next year and for many years after that. It’s hard to disagree with their assessment when one considers their incredibly successful regular season, but that forecast may need to change depending on where Johnny Gaudreau is playing next season. Gaudreau had the best season of his career in 2021-22, scoring 40 goals and 115 points en route to the second fourth-place Hart Trophy finish of his career. Gaudreau proved that he was among the league’s best play-driving wingers and helped dissuade those who were down on his game after a difficult prior two seasons. Gaudreau also had a productive playoff run, scoring 14 points in 12 games, including a Game Seven overtime winner, helping counter critics who claimed Gaudreau disappeared when it mattered most. GM Brad Treliving has said he would move “heaven and earth” to retain Gaudreau, and it’s easy to see why. With his level of production, Gaudreau has every right to expect a double-digit AAV from any interested suitors, and while a contract at that value may not be the best in its final few years, that’s simply the cost of doing business in free agency and the reality is Gaudreau is worth every penny at this moment.

D Nikita Zadorov – Nikita Zadorov came to Calgary without much fanfare. The Flames were his third team in as many years, and the throwback, extremely physical style of game he plays is one that polarizes many fans. What didn’t polarize fans as much, though, was the success he had on the Flames’ third pairing next to fellow stay-at-home defenseman Erik Gudbranson. The six-foot-six Moscow native gave out some major hits and helped make the team’s third pairing one to be feared. While Zadorov plays a rugged, physical style, his game is not notably effective defensively and he was not a major factor on the Flames’ penalty kill. That’s a curious bit of information, as one would expect a defenseman with Zadorov’s profile to be a defensive specialist and penalty kill anchor. But that simply wasn’t the role Zadorov played, though, and that has to factor into his market value. If he’s a hit-first player but not a shutdown player, that could seriously cut into how he’s valued by teams. Zadorov earned $3.75MM in 2021-22 and could fetch a raise on the open market if a team does believe he can be a shutdown defenseman, not just a human wrecking ball.

Other UFA’s:  F Calle Jarnkrok, F Ryan Carpenter, F Trevor Lewis, F Brett Ritchie, D Michael Stone, D Erik Gudbranson, F Byron Froese, F Glenn Gawdin, F Justin Kirkland, F Luke Philp, D Nick DeSimone, D Kevin Gravel, D Andy Welinski

Projected Cap Space

This is where things get a bit dicey for Calgary. The team is projected to have nearly $27MM in cap space, but that gets cut down quickly if Gaudreau and Tkachuk both sign extensions worth $9MM or more. The team also has Kylington and Mangiapane’s extensions to consider, as well as an Elias Lindholm extension that will need to get done after the next two seasons. The point being made here is that the Flames have an abundance of talented players, and will need to effectively manage their cap in order to retain them all and preserve the necessary room to acquire outside improvements to their roster. Sean Monahan’s $6.375MM cap hit looms on long-term injured reserve, and the team could look to send Monahan to another team so they’re able to accumulate cap space over the course of next season. It’ll be a tricky few months for the Flames, but if Treliving can play his cards correctly he’ll have laid the foundation for a contender in Calgary for years to come.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Latest On Johnny Gaudreau

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  • With Filip Forsberg now off the market, Calgary Flames forward Johnny Gaudreau has solidified his spot as the undisputed top free agent scorer set to be available on next week’s open market. The Calgary Flames, though, are hoping his contract situation ends in a similar way to Forsberg’s. Flames GM Brad Treliving, as relayed by TSN’s Salim Valji, remains “optimistic” about the prospect of re-signing Gaudreau, and part of the reason for that optimism has been because he and Gaudreau’s agent, Lewis Gross, have been “genuinely working towards a deal.” There has long been speculation on a Gaudreau return to his native East Coast, perhaps to the Philadelphia Flyers or New Jersey Devils, but it seems as though the Flames are fully intent on keeping that from happening and have every confidence that they’ll be successful.

Latest on Johnny Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk

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There’s a significant sense around the league that teams are rushing to get their salary cap situations cleared up before the start of free agency next week. Moves like the Tampa Bay Lightning trading Ryan McDonagh to the Nashville Predators for spare change and the Minnesota Wild moving early on a Kevin Fiala deal are evidence of that.

Now, another team is joining that list of really trying to make headlines in the near future. ESPN’s Kevin Weekes reports that the Calgary Flames are making “every effort” now not only to re-sign top pending unrestricted free agent forward Johnny Gaudreau but also restricted free agent Matthew Tkachuk.

While most of the public talk has centered around Gaudreau’s status, it makes sense that general manager Brad Treliving would want to get these deals done in a short window. Playing on the same line, Gaudreau and Tkachuk helped propel each other to career seasons. The Flames are likely hoping that keeping the two together will keep their level of play from declining after this season.

Finances are also a huge part of this equation too, though. Gaudreau and Tkachuk are surely bound to take up a gigantic chunk of Calgary’s offseason spending limit, likely at least $16MM of it. With a long list of other players to re-sign and/or spots to fill via free agency, Calgary needs a clear picture of how much cash they’ll be able to devote to players like Andrew Mangiapane and Oliver Kylington while still fielding a cap-compliant squad.

With Tkachuk’s value through the roof after his 40-goal, 100-point season and Gaudreau likely able to net eight figures on the open market, Treliving faces his toughest challenge yet as GM in Calgary in order to keep this year’s Pacific Division champions at the top of the Western Conference.

Latest On Sean Monahan

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  • One player who could potentially fill the Rangers’ second-line center need is Calgary Flames pivot Sean Monahan. Per Staple, Monahan “has been discussed in trade talks” with the Rangers. Monahan, 27, has seen his career derailed due to injuries as of late, and was placed on long-term injured reserve following hip surgery. If the Rangers believe in Monahan’s ability to re-discover the form that saw him score between 20 and 30 goals for seven straight seasons, then the Rangers could acquire him at an asset cost that would likely be far lower than the cost it would take to acquire a more in-demand center.

Prospect Cole Huckins Traded In The QMJHL

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  • Flames prospect Cole Huckins was traded from Acadie-Bathurst to Sherbrooke in exchange for a second-round pick as the QMJHL trade window opened up on Saturday. The 19-year-old was a third-round pick by Calgary last year (77th overall) and had a dozen goals and 14 assists in 41 games with the Titan this past season while adding four points in eight playoff contests.  Huckins has yet to sign his entry-level deal and will need a big season with the Phoenix in 2022-23 to help secure his first contract.

Offseason Checklist: Calgary Flames

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With the offseason in full swing, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Flames.

After missing the playoffs in 2020-21, Calgary had a bounce-back season as they finished first in the Pacific Division and got past Dallas in the opening round of the playoffs before falling to Edmonton.  The Flames were among the top-scoring teams in the league and allowed the third-fewest goals which is a great spot to be in but GM Brad Treliving has some work to do to keep the core intact.

Re-Sign Gaudreau

Let’s start with a big one.  Johnny Gaudreau has been a cornerstone player for Calgary for the past eight seasons.  After a bit of a quieter showing in 2020-21, he rebounded in a big way, posting career highs across the board while finishing tied for second in league scoring with 115 points; only Edmonton’s Connor McDavid had more.  If you put any stock into plus/minus, Gaudreau led the league in that category with a whopping +64 mark; for context, he was only +21 for his career heading into the year.  All of this has resulted in the 28-year-old being set to be the top free agent on the open market later this month.

That is, unless Calgary is able to stop him from getting there.  But to do so, it’s going to cost a pretty penny.  You can be sure that Gaudreau’s camp is going to point to the contract that Artemi Panarin signed with the Rangers (seven years, $11.643MM) as a valid comparable.  Considering Gaudreau has the longer track record and a more impressive platform season, it’s certainly an understandable target to strive for although he is a little older than Panarin was at the time.  Clearly, that’s not a price the Flames have been willing to meet since an extension isn’t in place yet.

At some point, Treliving will have to focus on a Plan B as having this get to July 13th without a resolution would certainly be risky.  If a new deal can’t be done by the draft, the Flames may have to entertain the possibility of flipping Gaudreau’s rights and begin shopping around for a replacement.  There’s still some time to work out an agreement but it’s something that they will need to accomplish sooner rather than later.

Re-Sign RFAs

On top of needing to re-sign Gaudreau, fellow winger Brady Tkachuk is also in need of a new contract and it’s also going to be an expensive one.  The 24-year-old is a year away from UFA eligibility, has salary arbitration rights, and is owed a qualifying offer of $9MM.  Tkachuk is also coming off of a career year, one that saw him surpass the 40-goal and 100-point marks for the first time.  That gives him plenty of leverage in discussions as if he doesn’t like what Calgary is offering, he can simply accept the qualifying offer or try his hand in arbitration to try to get a bit more than his qualifier.

Of course, a lot of what the Flames can do here is dependent on what happens with Gaudreau.  Both players could be in line for $10MM or so on their next contracts and while they have a little over $26MM in cap space at the moment, they also have to sign six or seven forwards and three defensemen with that money.  If those two take up that much of the pie, that doesn’t leave much room for anyone else.

Speaking of anyone else, the Flames have another winger that’s in line for a sizable raise in Andrew Mangiapane.  He’s also coming off a career year of his own as he put up 35 goals and 20 assists in 82 games.  Prior to that showing, his previous benchmark for points was 32.  Like Tkachuk, the 26-year-old is also arbitration-eligible and a year away from UFA eligibility.  Mangiapane is owed a $2.45MM qualifying offer but could make a case to double that in a hearing.  While he’s someone that they’d certainly like to keep around, he also might be someone they have to move if the price tag gets too high.

The other RFA of note this summer is blueliner Oliver Kylington.  He doesn’t have the track record to command the type of money that the others on this list do but after being a depth player for the first few years of his career, the 25-year-old was a regular, collecting 33 points in 71 games while averaging over 18 minutes a night.  Those are elements that look good in an arbitration filing so he will be in line for a sizable raise after making the league minimum in 2021-22; three or four times that amount could certainly be doable, further adding stress to their cap situation.

Add Defensive Depth

Right now, Calgary has just three regular defensemen under contract for next season with Kylington’s eventual signing bringing them to four.  Juuso Valimaki is signed for $1.55MM but spent the majority of the season in the minors so it’s fair to question whether he’s part of their plans for next season.  It’s quite possible that he’s shopped around to try to free up a little more salary cap space.

Meanwhile, veterans Nikita Zadorov, Erik Gudbranson, and Michael Stone are all set to hit the open market later this month with it seeming quite unlikely that Zadorov will return.  Gudbranson could be an option depending on what happens with their other free agents while Stone could return at or near the league minimum once again.  Even if he does, Treliving is going to need to add some defensive depth.

Connor Mackey is a candidate to at least be on the roster on a full-time basis so that’s one spot but the Flames are going to need to add at least one external blueliner that’s capable of playing on the third pairing and if they don’t have plans to use Valimaki as a regular next season, they’re going to need to look for two of them.  Quality role players on the back end can generate strong markets but Treliving is going to have to try to find some bargains.

Add Center Insurance

For several years, Sean Monahan was a fixture at the top of the lineup for Calgary.  However, his play has steadily declined over the last couple of seasons with injuries starting to take their toll.  He underwent hip surgery for the second straight year back in April which puts his availability for the start of next season in question.  Even if he can return, it will be difficult for the Flames to count on much production from him.  On top of that, the injury will make it next to impossible to buy out the final year of his deal, one that carries a $6.375MM AAV as he’d need to be medically cleared.  That doesn’t seem likely to happen by the close of the first buyout window next week.

Meanwhile, the extra depth players that Treliving brought in last season are all set to test unrestricted free agency in trade deadline acquisitions Calle Jarnkrok and Ryan Carpenter while Trevor Lewis is also set to walk.  Between that and the injury to Monahan, what was once a positional strength now has some questions aside from Elias Lindholm and Mikael Backlund.

Internally, Dillon Dube can play down the middle but he has been used predominantly on the wing in his career and at this point, he probably isn’t a full-time option.  Adam Ruzicka played in 28 games last season but is he ready for a full-time spot in the lineup and if so, can he play on the third line or is he better suited for the fourth?

As a result, the Flames could stand to add a pair of middlemen, one that can play on the third line behind Lindholm and Backlund and a depth center that can kill penalties in the mold of Lewis, Carpenter, or Brad Richardson (who was with the team for most of the year before finishing up with Vancouver).  The latter won’t be too hard to find but the third-line option will be trickier, especially if there’s an expectation that Monahan will be able to return at some point.  Assuming that’s the case, they won’t be able to rely on him being on LTIR and spend his cap hit on a replacement.

There’s a sequence of events that needs to happen for Calgary in the coming weeks and each of these ties back to a central theme, the salary cap.  Treliving will need to get creative to keep as much of his core together as possible while still managing to fill the holes that will need to be addressed this summer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Snapshots: Gaudreau, Sharks, Russia

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With just under two weeks now to go until the start of free agency, extensions are beginning to come in left and right as teams try to lock down players and get a better idea of their salary cap situation. One of the most highly-touted forwards on the market, if not the most highly-touted, is still without a contract, though: Calgary Flames left wing, Johnny Gaudreau. The Fourth Period’s David Pagnotta reports that the Flames have offered him an eight-year extension worth a total of $76MM, or $9.5MM per season, and it’s still on the table.

If Gaudreau accepts the offer, it would certainly be a “win-now” discount as the Flames enter a tricky cap situation. After a 115-point season, the 28-year-old winger is in prime earning territory and could likely fetch eight figures on the open market with that kind of production. It seems unlikely he’d accept the offer, but only time will tell.

  • San Jose Sharks interim general manager Joe Will confirmed today that forward prospects William Eklund and Thomas Bordeleau have permission from the team to head to the 2022 World Junior Championship in August. Eklund is very likely the best player Sweden has to offer at the tournament, and he finished the abbreviated tournament in January with three assists in two games. Bordeleau will also join Team USA in all likelihood for his first WJC under an NHL contract.
  • Michael Russo and Dan Robson of The Athletic highlight the challenges that Russian NHLers may face returning to North America this offseason. The piece comes as Philadelphia Flyers prospect Ivan Fedotov was detained earlier today when trying to leave the country. With the potential of visa laws and exceptions on the United States’ side changing prior to the season, it could pose additional complications for Russian players to enter and play inside the United States, adding to league general managers’ growing concern that Russian players might not be available for next season. While Russo and Robson note that it’s still an extremely unlikely scenario, it’s one worth keeping an eye on as the offseason chugs along.

Latest On Johnny Gaudreau

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  • Johnny Gaudreau could be the biggest name in this summer’s free-agent market, and according to Pierre LeBrun of TSN, despite a major offer from the Flames, the situation with Gaudreau is unchanged. Per LeBrun, Gaudreau’s camp has “not communicated” where the contract situation is headed, and there seems to be a growing divide in terms of how Gaudreau wants to handle his free agency and what the Flames are willing to tolerate as they attempt to construct next year’s roster. LeBrun reports that Gaudreau “wants to keep the Flames in the mix” while also getting to “take a peek” at the offers from other teams on July 13th. The Flames, though, would reportedly be uncomfortable with the saga dragging on to that point, and would potentially need to begin to pivot to other options, as LeBrun puts it. Flames GM Brad Treliving has previously stated that he would move “heaven and earth” to retain Gaudreau, so it remains to be seen if “heaven and earth” includes tolerating the uncertainty of Gaudreau’s free agency in order to maintain their chance of getting his signature on an extension.

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