Sabres Rumors

It’s fair to say that the Sabres have underachieved relative to expectations this season, leading some to wonder if a big shakeup could be on the way.  That might not be the case just yet but it certainly feels like a small one could be coming simply out of necessity.

Buffalo currently has 24 players on its active roster, one over the maximum of 23.  They’re allowed to be in that situation during the roster freeze but once that lifts on Thursday, their hand is going to be forced and someone will have to come off the roster.  On top of that, Zemgus Girgensons is nearing a return; he skated in practice for a few days leading up to the holiday break.  He’s currently on injured reserve so when he’s ready to be activated, that’s another roster spot that will need to be opened up.

While the Sabres have several waiver-exempt players, it seems unlikely that most of them will be sent down.  Up front, Zach Benson can’t go to the minors, only to junior and at this point, he’s expected to stay up with Buffalo.  John-Jason Peterka is tied for third in team scoring so he’s not going anywhere.  Jack Quinn, meanwhile, just returned and was a full-time regular last season so it’s unlikely he’d be sent down for any sort of extended stint.

On the back end, Owen Power clearly isn’t going anywhere either while Ryan Johnson has been a regular most nights lately; on merit, he shouldn’t lose his spot.  Dropping him off the roster would also leave them with just six available blueliners which isn’t an ideal situation to be in.

In goal, Devon Levi is waiver-exempt and has been sent down once already this season.  However, since returning from his brief stint with AHL Rochester, he has a .916 SV% in six games, a mark that should see him being deployed once again as their starting netminder.  That makes him a non-desirable candidate to go down as well.

Faced with a variety of less-than-ideal demotion candidates from their waiver-exempt pieces, the next option might be the waiver wire.  They’ve already gone that route recently with Jacob Bryson while Riley Stillman is also receiving a seven-figure salary to play for the Americans as well.

In terms of who could be options on that front, Victor Olofsson’s future with Buffalo has long been in question; had it not been for Quinn’s injury, some had wondered if he’d even be with the team at this point.  He’s playing fourth-line minutes at even strength right now and with a $4.75MM price tag, it’s fair to say he won’t be claimed.  If they’re looking for a way to keep as much depth as possible around, waiving and demoting him would accomplish that.  With his contract, they’d have to take a player back if they traded him which wouldn’t solve the current roster logjam.

Tyson Jost might be on unstable ground as well from a waiver perspective.  He now finds himself out of the top 12 with Quinn and Tage Thompson recently returning from their injuries.  He has just four points in 28 games so far this season, a far cry from the 22 he had in 59 contests after being claimed from Minnesota in 2022-23.  Speculatively, his $2MM cap charge might be enough to dissuade a team from picking him up on waivers although it’s worth noting that the Sabres didn’t balk at that cap hit a year ago.  Meanwhile, a trade that didn’t involve taking a contract back as well also seems unlikely so going that route isn’t likely to clear a roster spot.

Eric Robinson, who was just acquired from Columbus, is another option.  He has already cleared waivers once this season and considering the trade that brought him over was for about as close to nothing as possible, it’s unlikely he’d be claimed as well.  Waiving and demoting him could ultimately wind up clearing the conditional seventh-round pick they gave up for him since it’s contingent on NHL games played for the rest of the season.  While he has played well in limited action so far, Robinson is a viable option to land on waivers.

Then there’s Eric Comrie.  The netminder has been in the third-string role a lot this season and his numbers when he has played (4.01 GAA, .863 SV%) haven’t been great.  On the other hand, he has been a regular backup for the last couple of years.  At $1.8MM, he might pass through waivers but if Buffalo was willing to retain on the contract – they have all three retention slots open – they might be able to get at least a late-round pick in a trade for him.  While that would weaken their goalie depth, they do still have veteran Dustin Tokarski in the fold who can play in a pinch if need be.

Teams don’t like to be put in a situation where they’re going to be forced to make a move.  But the Sabres are about to be in that spot with at least one spot to open on Thursday when the roster freeze ends and another one soon after when Girgensons returns.  GM Kevyn Adams has some decisions to make as a result.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

At the beginning of the 2023-24 season, most expected at least one of three rebuilding Atlantic Division squads – the Red Wings, Sabres and Senators – to end their years-long playoff droughts. Popular opinion stated the Sabres were the most likely team to do so after finishing just one point out of a playoff spot in 2022-23.

Fast-forward to the holiday roster freeze, and those three teams have the worst point percentages in the division. The Canadiens were widely expected to finish last in the division but are now fifth in the Atlantic with a .530 points percentage, posting a 5-2-3 record in their past ten games. While Detroit is ahead of Montreal by one point heading into the holiday break, the Canadiens have played one less game.

The Sabres and Senators have the most ground to make up if they want to get back in the race. Both teams are multiple games below the .500 mark, and the Sabres are the league’s 27th-ranked team with a .457 points percentage. Inconsistent play has led some to question if head coach Don Granato and GM Kevyn Adams should remain in their posts as Buffalo aims to end their 12-season playoff drought, the longest in the NHL.

Forget taking a step forward – what’s changed between seasons to guide this year’s iteration of the Sabres to a significantly worse record than last year? The Sabres may have put up some of their best work near the end of last season, but they were in a much better spot at the holiday break with a 16-14-2 record. That would have them within a few wins of occupying a Wild Card spot this year.

Their already subpar defense and goaltending haven’t changed much. Unfortunately, their offense, which finished third in the league last season, has dried up. While they haven’t been as effective at even-strength as last season, the most significant drop-off has been on the power play. They clicked at a 23.4 success rate last season, ninth in the league. This year, they’re producing at a dismal 14.1% rate, 26th in the league.

All eyes point to first-line center Tage Thompson to help get their special teams back to last year’s form. His 20 power-play goals in 2022-23 were tied with the Lightning’s Brayden Point and the Rangers’ Mika Zibanejad for third in the NHL. Thompson has struggled with injuries this season, but he’s been much less effective even when in the lineup. He has only nine goals through 26 games, only two of them coming on the power play. After producing 1.21 points per game last year, he’s producing at a much more conservative per-game clip of 0.73 in 2023-24.

Some of Thompson’s struggles are luck-based, as he’s shooting 2.4% below his career average. He isn’t shooting the puck as much as last season, though, and his even-strength Corsi share has also stepped back about two percent from last season’s figure. He may still be playing like a first-line center, but not at the elite form he displayed last season. His subtle steps back have rendered the continued development of players like John-Jason Peterka and Casey Mittelstadt, as well as an unexpectedly strong rookie season from 2023 13th-overall pick Zach Benson, ineffective in helping the Sabres return to postseason play.

On the other side of the puck, Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power have remained above average in terms of possession control. They’re far from shutdown stalwarts, but they’re also not enough of a liability to be truly to blame for their 29th-ranked defense. In a poor look for Adams, that brunt falls on the team’s two big free-agent additions – Connor Clifton and Erik Johnson. Among full-time Sabres defenders this season, their 47% and 47.4% Corsi shares at even strength are the two worst figures on the team. While Johnson’s $3.25MM cap hit is an easy out, having only signed for one year, the three-year term on Clifton’s $3MM cap hit suddenly looks quite concerning after putting up some great advanced metrics with the Bruins as part of last season’s record-breaking team.

Neither Devon Levi nor Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen have been spectacular in the crease, but Levi’s had some strong showings recently and has been slightly above average on the season, stopping 0.3 goals above expected per MoneyPuck. Luukkonen has conceded 5 goals more than expected over the course of his 17 appearances this year, but neither netminder has been poor enough to truly affect the course of the team.

How much a newly healthy Jack Quinn can aid their goal-scoring woes and mediocre power play remains to be seen. Since returning from offseason Achilles surgery, the 22-year-old winger has two goals in three games and looks right at home in a top-six role.

There is still plenty of time for the season to turn around, especially given the mediocre performances of some other Eastern Conference teams like the Lightning, Hurricanes and Devils. Buffalo’s playoff odds remain slim at 14.4% per MoneyPuck at the time of writing, and that figure is the highest out of Montreal, Detroit and Ottawa, surely influenced by their 9-3 drubbing of the Maple Leafs last week.

The focus will remain on Thompson’s production as the team returns from its holiday break. If he can rattle off a point-per-game run for the next while, that should help the Sabres squeak out some more wins and get back on pace for at least a winning record. They’ll need to count on continued development from their youngsters and better defending from their second- and third-pair players to take them the rest of the way.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images