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Hindsight Bias: The Best And Worst Of Trade Deadline Day

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With the conference championships underway, we’re left with just four teams remaining in the hunt for the Stanley Cup. For the rest, they can take a look at the major trades made up to and on March 1st this year and gauge whether they were a mistake or a success. It’s somewhat of a mixed bag this year, with no deadline acquisition fueling their team to postseason dominance and no scapegoat whose underwhelming performance is to blame for an epic collapse. With that said, over two months later, it is safe to say that there were some clear winner and loser trades at the 2017 NHL Trade Deadline.

Winner: Anaheim Ducks – Patrick Eaves

Eaves has quietly been one of the most consistent contributors in the NHL this season and that did not change when he moved from the Dallas Stars to the Ducks ahead of the deadline. A versatile, two-way winger, Eaves has fit in well in Anaheim as is the lone major deadline addition who is still playing in the conference championships. After scoring 37 points in 59 games with the Stars, about .63 points per game, he registered 14 more in the final 20 regular season games for the Ducks, boosting his scoring to .7 points per game down the stretch in his new home. He even has two goals and two assists in seven playoff games, despite battling injuries. Anaheim may be down 1-0 in their pursuit of the Campbell Bowl and a Stanley Cup berth and their postseason success has bumped the price for Eaves up from a 2017 second-round pick to a first-rounder, but with a one in four chance at a title and a chance to re-sign Eaves, the Ducks cannot be more pleased with how this deal has played out thus far.

Loser: Minnesota Wild – Martin Hanzal

A team that is not so happy with their first-round investment is Minnesota. The Wild had been one of the best teams in the league all season long when they surprised many by acquiring one of the top trade deadline targets in Hanzal. The power forward performed admirably post-trade, putting up half as many points as his season total in Arizona in less than half as many games, 26 in 51 versus 13 in 25. He even added a playoff goal. However, his time in the playoffs, by no fault of his own, was much shorter than expected. The Wild were upset by the St. Louis Blues in five games and just like that they’re Stanley Cup hopes were gone. Falling so short despite high expectations makes the cost of adding a piece that didn’t matter much more difficult to swallow. Minnesota owes the Arizona Coyotes a top pick this season and a second-rounder next season plus another conditional pick and prospect, with little to show for the price.

Winner: New York Rangers – Brendan Smith

While the Rangers were underwhelming in their semi-final series against the Ottawa Senators, one many expected them to win, their exit is still not all that surprising given their status as a wildcard seed. Helping them to upset the Montreal Canadiens in Round One and take the Senators to six games was deadline acquisition Smith. While some initially mocked the deal – a 2018 second-round pick and 2017 third-round pick for a defenseman with just five points – Smith proved to be an excellent fit in New York. He scored four points in 18 games with the Rangers and also played better in his own end, earning him more play time. A disappointing start to the season in Detroit for the career-Red Wing quickly turned into a career revival with impressive play for his new squad. The postseason brought yet another four points and continued high-level play for Smith. Unfortunately, perhaps his worst game as a Ranger came in the elimination loss to the Senators when he was exposed on defense multiple times. Yet, in the big picture he was a success in New York. There is no word yet on whether there is mutual interest between both sides in an extension, especially since the Rangers carry many expensive blue line contract, but regardless this deal has to be considered a win for the Blueshirts.

Loser: Los Angeles Kings – Ben Bishop

Bishop may be happily settling in to his new home in Dallas after signing a nice six-year deal, but his time in Los Angeles did little to help him secure that contact. The Kings and the keeper were strange bedfellows to begin with, as now ex-GM Dean Lombardi traded red-hot backup goalie Peter Budaj, 2015 second-round defenseman Erik Cernak, and a 2017 seventh-round pick to the Tampa Bay Lightning for Bishop, just as starter Jonathan Quick was returning to health. The Kings needed scoring, not better goaltending, if they wanted to make the playoffs, but ended up with neither from the Bishop trade as he picked up only two wins in seven appearances with L.A. and posted just a .900 save percentage. The Kings finished 10th in the Western Conference and eight points out of a playoff spot, not even all that close to a berth, and now need to find a new backup goalie for 2017-18. The Bishop trade makes as little sense now as it did then and undoubtedly figured in to Lombardi’s firing.

Winner: Boston Bruins – Drew Stafford

The Bruins may have lost in the first round of the playoffs, but they likely wouldn’t have if four of their six starting defenseman didn’t miss all or most of the series. Even with those major injuries, the Ottawa Senators still had a difficult time eliminating the Bruins and Stafford was a thorn in their side with two goals and consistent two-way contribution. Add in four goals, matching his total earlier in the season with the Winnipeg Jets, and four assists in 18 regular season games as well as an outstanding +8 rating, and Stafford was an excellent addition for Boston. Acquired for just a sixth-round pick, Stafford was easily the steal of the trade deadline and ongoing talks of an extension would only add more value to a shrewd deal by GM Don Sweeney. 

Loser: Florida Panthers – Thomas Vanek

Vanek was having a great season for the Detroit Red Wings when the Trade Deadline rolled around. He had 38 points in 48 games and was sniping with accuracy unseen over the past five years. When the Florida Panthers struck a deal to acquire that level of talent for just a 2017 third-round pick and struggling prospect Dylan McIlrath, there was a consensus that they had won the trade considering the affordable cost. Yet, the counter to that argument was that, even if he maintained the same rate of production, Vanek alone was likely not enough for the Panthers to make the playoffs. In the end, that proved to be true. Vanek’s scoring dropped off to just two goals and ten points in 20 games and his shooting percentage fell almost ten points, but even if it hadn’t, the Panthers wouldn’t have qualified for the postseason. They finished 13th in the Eastern Conference, 14 points shy of a playoff spot. At the end of the day, acquiring the impending free agent and missing the playoffs by that much was simply a waste of a third-round pick for a team that is still building.

Loser: New York Islanders – No One

The idea that you can’t lose at the Trade Deadline if you don’t make a deal is incorrect. Case in point: the 2016-17 Islanders. New York ended up missing the postseason by just one point and their playoff hopes were alive up to the final day of the season. Had the Isles made a trade, even a small one, that could have won them one more game down the stretch, they might have been a playoff team after all. Given their need to convince star John Tavares to stick around, the Islanders should have been more willing to do something – anything – to transform into a playoff team.

Patrice Bergeron, Tuukka Rask Undergo Surgery

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The Boston Bruins kept things short and sweet in a press release today, as GM Don Sweeney announced that both Patrice Bergeron and Tuukka Rask underwent successful surgery over the past two days. Barring any unforeseen complications, both players are expected to make full recoveries and be ready for the start of the 2017-18 season.

Unlike defenseman Torey Krug, Brandon Carlo, and Adam McQuaid, whose injuries kept them out for the first round of the playoffs and seemed like the likely cause of the Bruins collapse at the hand of the Ottawa Senators, both Bergeron and Rask played through their ailments in the six-game series. It was revealed that Bergeron not only played through his injury, a sports hernia, for the postseason but the entire regular season as well. The Bruins’ alternate captain and perennial Selke candidate is no stranger to playing through pain; he memorably skated in Game Six of the 2013 Stanley Cup Final with a punctured lung. Rask is a different case, as he his physical and mental toughness has often been questioned by skeptics of the Boston keeper’s ability. Some minds may be changed after they find out that Rask played through a groin tear, perhaps the most taxing injury for a goalie, in the playoffs and still managed to post a .920 save percentage and 2.24 goals against average.

Luckily, both Bergeron and Rask – as well as half the defense – are on their way to health and should be ready to go for next season. Although Rask won a career-high 37 games, including a career-best and 2nd-best in the league 8 shutouts, and Bergeron scored 53 points, led the league in face-off wins, and was named a Selke finalist yet again, it was actually a down year for both players. Rask, the 2013-14 Vezina Trophy winner and the current holder of the best career save percentage all-time was streaky this season and helped him to finish a second straight season with an uninspiring .915 save percentage. Bergeron, who has the best Expected +/- all-time was just +12 on the year, third on the Bruins and outside the top 50 in the NHL. He also saw a drop off in goals from 32 in 2015-16 to just 21 in 2016-17 and with it a slight decrease in five-on-five and power play ice-time. Certainly neither player was disappointing this past season, but at full strength they can be better and the Bruins can build on their success this season with another impressive effort in 2017-18.

David Pastrnak & Leon Draisaitl: The Next Contract

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The 2016 restricted free agent market was one of the most talented – and most entertaining – in recent memory. As hockey moves more and more toward youthful skill and speed, the dynamics of team building have changed as well, as last summer marked the “death of the bridge deal“. A multitude of massive extensions for young players were handed out, including giant new deals for forwards like Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon, Winnipeg’s Mark Scheifele, Calgary duo Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau, and Florida pair Jonathan Huberdeau and Vincent Trocheck. The 2017 RFA group is no slouch either; it features star scorers such as Minnesota’s Mikael Granlund, Vancouver’s Bo Horvat, Nashville’s Ryan Johansen and Viktor Arvidsson, the Tampa Bay trio of Jonathan Drouin, Tyler Johnson, and Ondrej Palat and more.

Yet, the two most intriguing restricted free agents are the youngest of the group: 20-year-old Boston Bruins right winger David Pastrnak and 21-year-old Edmonton Oilers center Leon Draisaitl. Last summer opened the door for the game-changing pair to skip right over an affordable short-term deal that would keep them restricted into a third contract for the “prime” of their career. Now, Pastrnak and Draisaitl have the newly-minted industry standard option of asking for a six- to eight-year deal, lasting well into their late 20’s, worth somewhere in the range of $5-7MM annually. So what exactly will the new contracts look like this summer?

Pastrnak’s agent, J.P. Barry, is on the record as saying that his client is looking for a long-term deal and they are viewing the contracts of Monahan, Scheifele, and Filip Forsberg as comparisons. Forsberg signed a six-year, $36MM extension last June, worth $6MM annually, while Monahan re-signed for $6.375 per year for seven seasons and Sheifele agreed to $6.125MM a year for the maximum eight seasons. The only problem for Pastrnak and his representation in making those comparisons is the consistency argument. Pastrnak has an impressive 64 points through 68 games so far this season, much like Monahan’s 63 point total last year. However, Monahan also put up 62 points the year before and 34 as a rookie. He was only slightly older than Pastrnak when he agreed to an extension, but had far greater production in his first two seasons when compared to Pastrnak’s back-to-back mid-20’s performances. Scheifele also had a similar season to Pastrnak’s last year with 61 points in 71 games, but he too outperformed the young Czech the prior two seasons – and was two years older – when inking his eight-year mega deal. Like Monahan, Forsberg had consecutive 60+-point seasons before earning his new deal.

The Monahan, Scheifele, and Forsberg comparison works far better for Draisaitl. Now in his third NHL season, but still just 21, Draisaitl leads all impending RFA’s with 70 points on the year, following up his breakout 51-point campaign in 2015-16. With back-to-back strong seasons, like the previously described trio, Draisaitl should be comfortably within the $6-6.5MM annual range for his upcoming contract. The Oilers will have to keep in mind the possible record-setting deal awaiting them in Connor McDavid next year, but will not hesitate to pay Draisaitl, who is already one the best #2 centers in the NHL. While a very different player, Draisaitl’s early career arc closely resembles that of Gaudreau, and “Johnny Hockey” signed on for six more years in Calgary at $6.75 per, so don’t be surprised if Draisaitl actually ends up exceeding the $6-6.5MM annual range in his new deal or agrees to seven or eight years as compensation for a lower yearly value.

So what of Pastrnak? No one doubts that he will continue producing at a high level, especially with Boston’s top offensive stars like Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci, and David Backes signed long-term and in influx of promising talent on it’s way. However, with just one – albeit unbelievable – high-scoring season under his belt, Pastrnak may not be able to crack that $6MM per year mark. Some may point to MacKinnon, the youngest and arguably most talented RFA to re-sign last year, and say that Pastrnak should get the same seven-year contract worth $6.3MM annually. However, MacKinnon was a #1 overall pick and had established himself as a top-line center with a 63-point rookie season in 2013-14, far ahead of where Pastrnak was at that point, which cancels out some of his more recent struggles. Instead, a better comparison is likely Panthers scorers Trocheck and Huberdeau. Like Pastrnak, Trocheck and Huberdeau found only middling success in their first two NHL seasons. Trocheck had a big breakout last year, jumping to 53 points in 76 games, and was rewarded with a six-year deal worth $4.75MM per year. Huberdeau had his breakout in 2014-15 with 54 points and then backed it up 59 points last season, before inking a six-year extension worth $5.9MM annually. What Pastrnak has done this year clearly surpasses anything that the Florida duo have yet to put up and Trocheck and Huberdeau were also two years older than Pastrnak will be when they re-signed, but they set up a more accurate range for what the Bruins wunderkind should expect this summer. Taking likely cap inflation into consideration, Pastrnak is looking at a six-year extension worth $5-6MM per season. Given the Bruins recent issues with retaining young talent, it’s a fair assumption that they won’t play hardball with the young sniper, so expecting the upper side of that scale is perfectly reasonable.

Trade Deadline Summary: Winners & Losers Of The Atlantic Division

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The NHL Trade Deadline has come and gone, and while it wasn’t the most exciting deadline day in recent memory, there were quite a few notable moves. Here are the winners and losers of the neck-and-neck Atlantic Division:

Winners

Boston Bruins:

GM Don Sweeney did not want a repeat of 2016, when he gave up second, third, fourth, and fifth-round picks for Lee Stempniak and John-Michael Liles, only for the team to miss the playoffs. In 2017, he succeeded in bringing in a reliable depth player and goal-scorer, Stafford, without having to pay the price of a top pick or any of Boston’s numerous high-end prospects. Sweeney deserves credit for not panicking when his divisional rivals all began making multiple moves, holding to his word of not overpaying and eventually getting a last-minute deal done at a bargain price for a good player.

Detroit Red Wings:

As hard as it is to imagine, the Red Wings are going to miss the playoffs and were in a complete fire sale at the deadline. For as long as it has been since they were in such a position, the team did pretty well. GM Ken Holland may have been able to get a better deal for Vanek earlier in the season, but getting two high picks for Smith and anything at all for Ott was nice maneuvering. The Red Wings in essence added five picks for four players that were unlikely to be on the team in 2017-18 anyway. Could they have dealt Riley Sheahan and Drew Miller too? Possibly, but they did enough as is.

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Bruins Extend Agreement With ECHL Affiliate

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The Bruins announced yesterday that they have renewed their agreement with their ECHL affiliate, the Atlanta Gladiators. This new deal will extend the relationship through the 2017-2018 season. This means the Bruins front office can continue to assign players in their system to the Gladiators.

“The Boston Bruins and Providence Bruins are excited to renew our affiliation with the Atlanta Gladiators,” said Bruins general manager Don Sweeney. “Since entering into our partnership with the Gladiators two years ago, we have established a strong working relationship with the club. We have been impressed by the support system; led by their owner Mr. Jefferys and their VP Joe Gelderman, along with the individual development attention that Head Coach Andy Brandt and his staff has shown each one of our players. We look forward to the continued success of the franchise and thank the Atlanta Gladiators ownership group and the Duluth community for their steadfast support.”

The two teams originally signed a “two-year affiliation agreement” before the 2015-2016 campaign. Prior to this, the South Carolina Stingrays and Reading Royals served as the Bruins’ ECHL affiliate.

The Gladiators franchise started as the Mobile Mystics (Mobile, Alabama) back in 1995. In 2003, the team moved to Gwinnett County, Georgia and rebranded as the Gwinnett Gladiators, where they served as the ECHL affiliate to the Atlanta Thrashers. Following the Thrashers’ move to Winnipeg in 2015, the team changed their name to the Atlanta Gladiators as they looked to become the “professional hockey team for all of the metro Atlanta community.” Over the years, the team has aslso served as an affiliate to the Chicago Blackhawks, Columbus Blue Jackets, Phoenix/Arizona Coyotes, and Buffalo Sabres.

There are several notable players currently playing for the Gladiators, including Akim Aliu, Matt Ginn, Tyler Murovich, and Derek Nesbitt.

Bruins And Avalanche Talking Trade

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After Colorado Avalanche GM Joe Sakic was seen speaking with Boston Bruins GM Don Sweeney during the second period of the Bruins’ 4-0 shutout of the Montreal Canadiens last night, the internet has exploded with speculation of a potential deal in the works. The expectations are not unprecedented; it was reported earlier this season that the Bruins were interested in the captain of the last-place Avs, available winger Gabriel Landeskog. However, they balked at the asking price of a package including impressive rookie defenseman Brandon Carlo and those talks apparently had fallen apart.

They seem to be back on now though. The Boston Globe’s Fluto Shinzawa writes this morning that both executives are under immense pressure and have been in constant communication lately. Sakic’s squad is one of the worst in recent memory, while Sweeney’s team has missed the playoffs two years in a row, despite a deep and talented roster, and just fired the best coach in team history in an effort to get back to the postseason. While many Bruins fans would like to see the team refrain from making any desperate moves, as trading young players has not worked out for them over the last decade (see: Joe Thornton, Kris Versteeg, Blake Wheeler, Tyler Seguin, Johnny Boychuk, Dougie Hamilton, ect.), Boston undoubtedly needs some scoring help, both this year and in the future, as Sweeney said himself recently.

With lots of talent in the system, both up front and on the blue line, Boston has the pieces to make a major trade if they so choose. What they lack, is immediate help at left wing. Brad Marchand and Frank Vatrano have top left side spots locked up long-term, but Matt Beleskey has had a down year after career-highs in 2016-17 and Tim Schaller is not a top-nine option.  Rookie Peter Cehlarik, recently recalled from the AHL’s Providence Bruins where he has been the best player all year long, played great in front of Sakic last night, but is a pass-first player on a team in search of a sniper. Former college star Danton Heinen failed to make a difference in his Boston tryouts earlier this year and 2015 first-rounder Jake DeBrusk has failed to earn his first career call-up yet. The Bruins most promising left wing option in the system may be Marchand clone Jesse Gabrielle or Notre Dame star Anders Bjork.

Thus, the desire to acquire Landeskog, if that is Sweeney’s intention, makes sense. However, the cost could be too high. Shinzawa believes that the likes of Cehlarik, center Ryan Spooner, or defenseman Colin Miller may not be enough for the Avalanche and that they are stuck on the Colorado-native Carlo. The Bruins first instinct to reject even the thought of moving the young blue liner is correct though. At just 20 years old, the 6’5″ Carlo has played major minutes, both regular strength and special teams, all season long and has learned under one of the best, Zdeno Chara. He has size, strength, skating ability, and now experience at a very young age. Would the Bruins really trade a player with the makings of a top-pair defenseman for the next decade? Shinzawa does note that they have top prospect Charlie McAvoy, perhaps the only untouchable in the system, waiting in the wings and three NHL-caliber defenseman on the right side in Colin Miller, Kevan Miller, and Adam McQuaid. However, he acknowledges that the upcoming Expansion Draft may strip them of one of those three. An argument can also be made that Kevan Miller is  top-six defenseman in Boston by necessity, not talent. The Bruins are right to consider McAvoy as a non-starter, but Carlo should be in that group too, and originally was. The Bruins have been on the hunt for a top-pair replacement for Chara as well, as the big man has one year remaining on his contract before he surely retires, and moving Carlo would deny them of what could be the perfect in-house replica. Unless Sweeney had a change of heart, perhaps he is trying to entice Sakic with a combination of a potential replacement for Landeskog on the left side (Spooner, Cehlarik, Beleskey, Heinen), another top defensive prospect like World Junior standouts Jakub Zboril, Jeremy Lauzon, or Ryan Lindgren, and one of a plethora of strong center prospects – another major need for the Avs – like Jakob Forsbacka-Karlsson, Trent Frederic, Ryan Donato, or Ryan Fitzgerald. In fact, Sakic will reportedly take in the Beanpot Tournament final tonight in Boston, featuring Boston University and Harvard, and will get to see Bruins prospects Forsbacka-Karlsson, Donato, McAvoy, and Wiley Sherman in action. Could that ties into the deal?

There are a lot of question marks remaining about the targets of both teams. After all, the Carlo asking price may have Sweeney moving on to other Colorado targets like former Bruin Jarome Iginla, winger Blake Comeau, or rental defenseman Fedor Tyutin.  A deal is far from a sure thing, but the Boston Bruins and Colorado Avalanche are definitely talking trades with about two weeks remaining before the March 1st NHL Trade Deadline. Keep an eye on these two teams moving forward.

Writers, Analysts React To Claude Julien’s Firing

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As the news sunk in around the NHL that Claude Julien was relieved of his duties, many have weighed in around the league. The general consensus from many is that Julien’s firing was done at the absolute wrong time, and seemed to be a way to soften the blow of the dismissal. Here are some thoughts from writers around the hockey world.

  • The Boston Globe’s Dan Shaughnessy used a number of descriptors to label the firing: cowardly, disrespectful, disgraceful, and embarrassing. While Shaughnessy realizes that Julien’s time was up in Boston, it’s how they fired the coach that irritates him. He openly challenges Boston management, wondering if they believe backers and reporters are stupid when choosing to fire him during the Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots’ parade.
  • Puck Daddy’s Greg Wyshynski reports that Boston management was “roasted” by reporters for its decision to sack Julien during the parade. Though Wyshynski writes that general manager Don Sweeney defended his decision to fire Julien, it was met with skepticism and noted that the timing was specific to “dull” the firing. He also lists Sweeney’s litany of excuses for the firing, while picking apart several of those very reasons.
  • Boston.com’s Eric Wilbur believes it was time for Julien to go, but like other writers, felt the timing was horribly planned. Wilbur also adds his own adjectives much like Shaughnessy, saying that Julien leaves a franchise just as dysfunctional as when he arrived. Specifically, Wilbur calls them gutless, disrespectful, and exploitable. Wilbur does concede, however, that it was time for Julien to go. He adds that it now remains to be seen if those who defend Julien will be vindicated for their belief that the bench boss was hampered by a weakened roster. Should the bottom fall out, Sweeney will probably find himself on the bread line next.

Bruins Scouting Ducks-Wild Game

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It would be a surprise to no one that the Boston Bruins’ brass are out watching other teams. While the Bruins are still clinging to a playoff spot in the Atlantic Division, currently tied with the Ottawa Senators for second with 52 points, that position is only temporary. The Senators and Toronto Maple Leafs, just two points behind, have six games in hand on Boston. They are currently doing battle with each other, which could result in a three-way tie with a Toronto win, a drop to third in the division with a Senators win, or the worst-case scenario, a Leafs OT-win in which both results would occur. Regardless, the Bruins are not going to be able to hang on to their spot long with the way they have been playing. Boston has lost three straight, including shutouts by the Chicago Blackhawks and New York Islanders and a crushing 6-5 shootout defeat to the Detroit Redwings wherein they blew two three-goal leads. The Bruins have only won six of their last sixteen games and those six wins have come against four teams that are struggling as much or more than they are: the Philadelphia Flyers, St. Louis Blues, Florida Panthers (twice), and Buffalo Sabres (twice). Beyond just wins and losses, there are rumors about coach Claude Julien, reported turmoil in the front office surrounding president Cam Neely, injuries on defense to Kevan and Colin Miller, a 16-game goal-less streak for early-season superstar David Pastrnak, and ongoing issues with line chemistry. The Bruins need a shake-up to save their season, and everyone knows it.

So, when Minnesota Wild beat writer Michael Russo reported that Bruins GM Don Sweeney was on the press box list at tonight’s game, with the Wild hosting the Anaheim Ducks, it came as no surprise. Both teams are known for their immense lack of talented depth on defense, something that Boston would definitely be interested in. While the team has been shut out three times this month, their scoring has actually been trending upward. Patrice Bergeron has begun to shake off his early struggles, Frank Vatrano has been a shot in the arm since his return from injury, and Brad Marchand and Torey Krug have remained on fire. The recent return of Matt Beleskey should help to add some scoring and balance out the forward lines (much-needed), while the AHL’s Providence Bruins, who won 9-1 tonight, have been explosive and could potentially offer support up front. That’s not to say that the Bruins, who will have about $17MM in cap space by the time the NHL Trade Deadline rolls around, won’t still look to add an impending free agent forward with some finish, but despite appearances, the offense should be able to figure itself out in the short-term. The defense is a different story. While the Bruins are loaded with defensive talent in the system, none of it is on its way this year and maybe not next year either, and the Bruins need some help now. Krug has four goals and 25 assists, but has also had his issues in his own end. His pair mate Adam McQuaid has had a nice bounce-back season, but offers little in the way of puck movement and offense. Same goes for the top pairing of Zdeno Chara and Brandon Carlo, who have been one of the better shutdown duos in the league this season, but are slowing down as a 39-year-old and a rookie respectively. John-Michael Liles, an impending free agent, has just recently returned from injury and has yet to make a major difference. Colin Miller, though he has upside, was in and out of the lineup even before his injury, and Kevan Miller, also injured, is likely better suited as an extra man. The Bruins need a legitimate top-four defenseman for this year and for the near future, and both the Wild and Ducks provide intriguing trade partners.

As it stands right now, Anaheim and Minnesota are both guaranteed to lose a top-four caliber defenseman in the upcoming NHL Expansion Draft, if the Vegas Golden Knights choose to select that player. A team can either protect seven forwards and three defenseman or eight skaters total, allowing them to protect a fourth defenseman. Neither situation works out particularly well for either team. The Ducks will be forced to protect veteran Kevin Bieksa, due to his no-movement clause, and will likely choose to protect young cornerstone blue liners Hampus Lindholm, Sami Vatanen, and Cam Fowler as well, even if it means leaving a promising forward like Jakob Silfverberg exposed. However, Vegas could choose to instead take another good young defenseman in Josh Manson or potentially Simon Depres. Similarly, the Wild too are expected to protect four defenseman, selecting from Ryan Suter (a veritable lock), Jared Spurgeon, Jonas Brodin, Marco Scandella, and Matt Dumba. One way or another, one of those d-men will be exposed and almost certainly scooped up by the Golden Knights. So, with both teams fighting for position atop the Western Conference and with their eye on a Stanley Cup, Anaheim and Minnesota also have to be thinking about trading a defenseman. They would much rather get something in a trade rather than nothing in the draft, even if that means dealing away talent in a Cup-contender season. Armed with a deep prospect system and quality forwards they may willing to part with, such as David Krejci, Ryan Spooner, and Jimmy Hayes, the Bruins would be an interesting suitor for either team. With Don Sweeney in attendance, watching two teams that are facing a difficult situation and may feel like pressured to make a move, an important shake-up trade could be on the horizon in Boston. Could it be the revitalized Fowler? The youngster Dumba? A more Bruin-like player like Scandella or Manson? Only time will tell, but the connection between the Bruins and these defense-deep teams will be something to keep an eye on as we head toward the Trade Deadline in just over a month.

Atlantic Notes: Holland, Rielly, Julien, MacArthur, Sabres Rebuild

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Detroit Red Wings general manager Ken Holland spoke with NHL.com’s Nick Cotsonika who quizzed the manager about how the Wings will approach the next month. Holland wants to give the Red Wings every chance to get back into the race before having to make the decision to trade off assets–something he’s never done in his career as a general manager. During the first intermission during the Bruins-Red Wings matchup Wednesday night, Bob McKenzie added that the Wings will most likely look to sell during their bye, which comes a week before the trade deadline.

  • The Toronto Maple Leafs received some great news when it turned out Morgan Rielly’s injury was not nearly as serious as initially thought. The defenseman was all smiles in the locker room when he met with the media regarding his day-to-day status.
  • If the Bruins are going to fire head coach Claude Julien, it’s going to come from the hockey men in charge, not ownership. Bruins CEO Charlie Jacobs, according to the Boston Herald’s Steve Buckley, will defer Julien’s fate to team president Cam Neely and general manager Don Sweeney. Jacobs adds that his role is to support the front office on their hockey decisions.
  • Bruce Garrioch writes that Clarke MacArthur has to undergo more testing before he is cleared to return for the Sens. Though they want him back, the team is taking every precaution in the name of safety.
  • On the Sabres, the Buffalo News’ Mike Harrington reports that the Sabres have been “left in the dust” when it comes to rebuilding. Using the Maple Leafs as the measuring stick, Harrington’s lede argues that it certainly shouldn’t be the case. But Buffalo has taken a path that appears to be wrought with poor decisions from the front office to the bench.

Potential Landing Spots For Trouba

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After the report came out that Jets restricted free agent defenseman Jacob Trouba had asked for a trade out of Winnipeg, GM Kevin Cheveldayoff stated that he would do what’s “best for the team” in handling the situation. Although the Jets have all of the leverage – Trouba’s only choice other than to re-sign with Winnipeg or accept a trade and sign is to play overseas – they are on the clock to figure out what to do about the young blue liner. With Dustin Byfuglien, Tyler Myers, and Paul Postma already on the roster, losing Trouba would not be as catastrophic for the Jets as it would be for most teams, but they are also not going to just give him away. A young, right-shot defenseman is one of the most valuable assets in the NHL, and the Jets should be able to get quite the package in return for Trouba. However, that price will inevitably drop the further the stand-off lasts into the regular season, and should the Jets fail to make a move by December 1st, the signing deadline for RFA’s, then Trouba will not be allowed to play at all in 2016-17 and the price will plummet.

Nearly every team in the NHL is probably kicking the tires on Trouba right now, but the list of teams who are actually willing and capable of making the deal is actually fairly short. Although Trouba’s agent Kevin Overhardt says that the main reason that Trouba wants out of Winnipeg is the lack of opportunity behind Byfuglien and Myers, the relationship between the team and the young defenseman began to break down last year when it was reported that Trouba was looking for $7MM per year. If the 22-year-old really is holding to a $6MM to $7MM yearly price tag, several D-needy teams with cap troubles, like the Detroit Red Wings, New York Rangers, and Colorado Avalanche may have a difficult time making a deal without sending significant salary the other way. The problem with that is whether Winnipeg is willing to take on high-salary players. Their ideal package will likely include a young left-shot defenseman and a young forward, rather than any high-priced veterans. With that criteria in mind, here are the most likely destinations for Trouba if his trade request does pan out:

Arizona Coyotes

The Coyotes are actually very deep on the right side of the blue line, with Michael Stone, Connor Murphy, Luke Schenn and Zbynek Michalek in the fold, but have long been pursuing a true top-pair partner for Oliver Ekman-Larsson. They are also armed with the deepest prospect system in the NHL, and could offer the Jets any number of elite young forwards to make this deal happen. If Winnipeg holds tight to their request for a young lefty defenseman, it’s possible that GM John Chayka could part with 2016 first-rounder Jakob Chychrun. If he’s not, the pickings are slim at left defense. The Coyotes have the most quality young talent up front to offer the Jets, but would also have to suffer a high cost as a Western Conference competitor. Arizona has been connected to Trouba in the rumor mill for months, but are they willing to pay the price to get him?

Boston Bruins

The Bruins defense is nothing to write home about. In fact, a team that was the best two-way squad in the league a few short years ago has missed the playoffs is back-to-back years due mostly in part to poor play on the back end. Boston is slated to enter the 2016-17 season with Colin Miller, Kevan Miller, and Adam McQuaid as their starters on the right side, even though all three would be bottom pair or extra defenseman on most teams in the NHL. Colin Miller has potential, as does Brandon Carlo, who is looking to win a job this year, and 2016 first-rounder Charlie McAvoy looks like a future star. That won’t stop GM Don Sweeney from jumping at the chance to acquire a young right-shot stalwart though. The Bruins have the roster and cap space to bring in Trouba and put him on the top pair with Torey Krug or Zdeno Chara. The question for the Bruins is whether or not they have the pieces to make it happen. At left defense, Krug is untouchable and former top picks Joe Morrow and Linus Arnesson have yet to establish themselves as reliable pros. The Jets would have to accept a top prospect like Jakub Zboril or Jeremy Lauzon at the position, as well as one or more of the Bruins deep group of forward prospects. The Bruins do have more to choose from in quality centers in the system, Winnipeg’s biggest need up front, than the Coyotes or Maple Leafs do. The last time the Jets (read: Thrashers) made a deal with the Bruins, they ended up with captain Blake Wheeler. The pair could swing another big deal with Trouba.

Edmonton Oilers

The situation with Edmonton is pretty cut-and-dry. A young team on the cusp of finally putting it all together, the Oilers still have concerns on defense even after trading away Taylor Hall to get Adam Larsson. If they could add Trouba to the mix, it would be a great addition. However, the cost would be a young roster defenseman on the left side, whether that’s Darnell Nurse, Oscar Klefbom, or maybe Griffin Reinhart. Depending on which one, other picks and prospects would be involved as well. Not only a conference opponent, but also a Canadian rival, Edmonton will not get Trouba at a discount rate from Winnipeg. If GM Peter Chiarelli is unwilling to part with one of his current defensive core, the Oilers lack the ability to bring in Trouba.

New Jersey Devils

The Devils defense is perhaps the worst in the NHL. They also have more available cap space than nearly any other team. Acquiring Trouba makes too much sense for the Devils, but can they get it done? If the Jets aren’t interested in Jon Merrill, New Jersey has almost nothing to offer at left defense. GM Ray Shero could offer up a 1st-round pick instead, guaranteed to be a lottery pick, and a top prospect like Pavel Zacha or one of their two 2016 1st-rounders, but whether he would do that and whether Winnipeg would accept it is another thing. The Devils will likely try hard for Trouba, but are only as likely as the teams with no cap space to somehow force a deal. The fit doesn’t seem to be there.

Toronto Maple Leafs

It would be nearly impossible for the Red Wings to fit Trouba’s new contract on the books, and also very hard for the Rangers or Avs to find the flexibility. Just inside the range of teams who could somehow make it work are the Maple Leafs. With only import Nikita Zaitsev and veteran Roman Polak as right-shot defenseman on the roster, as well as no one resembling a future top-pair righty in the system, Toronto would love to capitalize on Trouba’s availability and acquire a long-term partner for Morgan Rielly.  Jake Gardiner or Martin Marincin might not be what Winnipeg is looking for, but like New Jersey, Toronto can offer a high first-rounder, or enough forward talent to offset a weaker left-shot defenseman. The fit is not great, but there are options there for GM Lou Lamoriello to make a suitable offer to the Jets.

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