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Leafs Notes: Kovalchuk, Nylander, Van Riemsdyk

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Howard Berger praised Leafs’ management and their willingness to “think outside the box” with regards to player movement in a recent article. He revisits the Ilya Kovalchuk speculation and the article does beg the question of whether the Leafs were (or are) seriously interested. They do have a bit of cap room to play with, and are undoubtedly a team on the rise. Without taking a massive paycut, and with the New York area teams reportedly backing away, it does limit Kovalchuk’s potential landing spots were he to make an NHL return. A long-term deal would almost certainly be out of the question, but he could provide a noticeable veteran presence up front and would immediately catapult the Leafs into a dominant offensive team. With youngsters Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and Auston Matthews all looking to build upon their immensely successful season, the grizzled Kovalchuk could serve as a stabilizing mentor.

  • Also mentioned in the article is potentiality of trading Nylander going forward. Berger cites the Chicago Blackhawks model of 3 core players – 2 forwards and 1 defenseman (Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith) – as what GM Lou Lamoriello should seek to mimic. The core of Marner, Nylander, and Matthews needs a solidifying defensive force to round out the group (so the theory goes) and Berger believes Nylander is the weakest of the three. This would certainly be “outside the box”, but there is little logic in forfeiting an explosive talent up front merely because of contract concerns, at least at this early stage. As the Pittsburgh Penguins are proving this off-season, a solid group of defenseman is enough to overcome the absence of a marquee name.
  • In spite of all the smoke that constantly surrounds the Maple Leafs in their hockey-crazed media market, management has been relatively conservative in their rebuilding approach. It seems unlikely that Toronto will make a massive transaction and will instead quietly build upon last season’s advances. Although they have been known to venture outside the league for help (Nikita Zaitsev, Leo Komarov), Kovalchuk will likely require too much money and term. If the team were to trade a forward for defensive help, it would almost certainly be a non-core piece at or near the age of 30. Komarov is likely too integral to the team’s leadership and mentality to be shipped off for anything short of an overpayment. Fellow 2018 UFAs Tyler Bozak and James van Riemsdyk are the obvious candidates for movement, with van Reimsdyk more likely to attract attention due to his greater goal-scoring prowess.

Rangers Look To Add Core Piece

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According a column written this morning by the New York Post’s Larry Brooks, it seems quite apparent that the Rangers are not satisfied with their current roster. After a second-round ousting at the hands of the Senators, big changes seems inevitable in New York. The primary concern of course is on defense, where they will look to unload one of Marc Staal and Dan Girardi. As of yet, however, Brooks says neither has been asked to waive their no-movement-clause in preparation for the expansion draft. Management may yet be hopeful Vegas will prove benevolent and claim one of the albatross contracts, but the more likely scenario still remains a buyout. What happens in the wake of a Girardi or Staal departure is what management is seemingly focused on.

Winnipeg’s Jacob Trouba has been linked to trade rumors since his contract negotiations dragged into the regular season. Rangers GM Jeff Gorton is apparently quite interested, but nothing new has surfaced in those preliminary trade talks. Although not mentioned in the article, the Wild are likely to move a defenseman and Mathew Dumba could fit the bill for New York. Minnesota would be looking for an offensive player in return. Brooks confirms the speculation that Colorado’s Tyson Barrie is on the team’s radar. It’s unclear what the Rangers would offer that would truly entice the Avalanche, as there are undoubtedly many suitors for Barrie’s services. Even more confusing, the Rangers are apparently in committed efforts to acquire Nathan MacKinnon. I still see MacKinnon moving as a near impossibility for anything short of a king’s ransom. And if the Rangers are incessantly inquiring about MacKinnon, it could theoretically derail the Barrie conversation. Their need for a right-handed, mobile defenseman has to trump all other desires at the moment.

In terms of who could be on the way out, Rick Nash is always a viable candidate. He will be entering the final year of his contract worth $7.8 MM, and at 32, he still has a bit of trade value (especially if salary is retained).  Mats Zuccarello was arguably the best Rangers forward last season, but he’ll be due a pay day in two seasons. Considering that Mika Zibanejad, Jimmy Vesey, Kevin Hayes, and J.T. Miller all will need new contracts before then, will he be truly be worth a core player’s contract? They could combine two of those aforementioned younger assets to get their right-handed D, but then they would take a monumental step back in terms of offensive depth. Whatever route they decide to go, one has to imagine that picks and prospects will be a huge part of the final arrangement.

Ultimately, the Rangers want a dynamic, top-line forward who can create offense on his own. However, they absolutely need to fill a gap on an aging defense if they hope to remain in playoff contention. If they can add both, it would be a total boon for Gorton and management. But in a competitive trade market, it seems wise to temper expectations.

Goalie Market Far Too Crowded

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Although the expansion draft and entry draft are the immediate matters on the minds of those not involved with the Finals, there is still ample reason to speculate on the UFA class. After all, the ability for teams to start signing players is less than a month away. In a particularly weak free agent class, however, one factor sticks out quite prominently. There are 10 goaltenders who played regularly for their teams this season, who will be vying for far fewer NHL roster spots. Only two teams are truly desperate for a starter, those being the Calgary Flames and Winnipeg Jets.

None of the available goaltenders even cracks my top 25 free agents, which should indicate how poor some of the tenders’ seasons have been. That said, these 10 names combined have played thousands of NHL games. By my estimation, still leading the pack should be former Calgary Flame Brian Elliott. Elliott’s career stats are decent, and he’s only one season removed from a 38 win, .930 save percentage year with the Blues. However, he melted down in grand fashion this off-season en route to a sweep at the hands of the Anaheim Ducks. It may not be fair, but that will absolutely impact his perceived value around the league. His one-year contract gamble, which looked wise at the time, may cost him now. Also in the “top tier” of goaltenders available are Peter Budaj, who had a career year in Los Angeles, Mike Condon, who is one of the most valued backups league-wide, and Jonathan Bernier, who had 21 wins and a respectable .923 save percentage in the regular season before being totally usurped by John Gibson.

Then there is the “middle tier” of goaltenders who likely won’t see a ton of interest, but could easily serve backup duty, some only on a severely reduced contract. These include Ryan Miller, Chad Johnson, and Steve Mason. Ryan Miller is nearly 37 years old, and although he may still have a bit left in the tank, it’s impossible to imagine a team opting to make him their starter. Complicating matters is that Miller will likely want a multi-year agreement to bring him security. Chad Johnson will likely find work, but it could be a long while waiting. Teams will more than likely scour the field for the bigger names first, and only circle back to him as a security backup. Steve Mason is an interesting reclamation project, especially when you consider that his stats weren’t totally horrendous (.908 SV%, 2.66 GAA). However, his career numbers just aren’t that solid, and the absolute fury he invoked from the Flyers fanbase didn’t boost his confidence or stock. Mason will need to come to terms with the fact that he is no longer a number one goalie, nor will he be paid as one – he earned $4.1 MM on his last contract and he’ll see nowhere near that this time around.

Rounding out the “bottom-most” group is Ondrej Pavelec, Jhonas Enroth, and Curtis McElhinney. Out of these, McElhinney seems the only with a solid hope of finding a gig. He only played in 21 games this past year between Columbus and Toronto, but performed decently. His .917 save percentage, well up from his .905 career, might be just enough to negotiate a contract, perhaps in the event of an injury. Pavelec has been nothing short of a disaster in Winnipeg, with his only good statistical year being 2014-15. He played just 8 games last season, with a .888 SV%. He may be forced to look overseas for employment. Enroth hasn’t fared any better – he’s only played 17 games in the last two seasons, not even tallying a win in 2016-17.

Essentially, none of these goalies will be highly sought after. Condon could realistically see a starting role next season, as could Budaj, which would have been unthinkable in the not-so-distant past. Teams have many options when it comes to goaltending, but none of them are particularly awe-inspiring. The prices on contracts will likely be diminished substantially due to the abundance of available players, and agents could see this situation extend deep into the summer months.

 

Evening Notes: Chayka, Boogaard, Oilers

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Coyotes GM John Chayka spoke with Craig Morgan of Arizona Sports and provided decent insight into the team’s strategy headed into the summer. Chayka is the youngest general manager in the league and has become infamous for his cap management strategies. Chayka seems highly interested in acquiring a player from a team worried about losing an asset for nothing. Although many other GMs will be seeking to accomplish similar deals, Chayka looks to be relatively aggressive on this front. He tempered Mike Smith trade speculation, saying “there’s a value to our team that Mike has, being an All-Star and our rock; his value is extremely high but if someone wants to pay an even higher value for him, that’s the industry.” There is also no news as to Shane Doan’s retirement decision. Chayka emphasized the increasing urgency among all GMs as the expansion draft seems to have every organization slightly on edge.

  • The case for wrongful death filed against the NHL on behalf of the late Derek Boogaard has been tossed out, according to the Star-Tribune. Boogaard died at the age of 28, after a long enforcer career with the Minnesota Wild and New York Rangers. He received multiple brain injuries and relied on opioid pain killers as treatment, which led to an addiction that eventually resulted in his demise. Fighting has declined substantially over recent years in the NHL, as both the NHL and NHLPA are looking to reduce incidents of traumatic brain injury. The debate over the role of violence in the sport remains a hot-button issue, but players still generally vote in favor of fisticuffs when surveyed. That the Boogaard case has been dismissed on technicalities is a setback for safety advocates, as there is a looming lawsuit in U.S. courts which seeks to prove that the league has been reckless in its regard for player safety in relation to concussions. Whether these off-ice lawsuits will impact the next Collective Bargaining Agreement, or the way penalties are called, remains to be seen.
  • The NHL released the results of a fan vote for the greatest team of all time in honor of the 100 year anniversary – with the 1984-85 Edmonton Oilers taking top honors. The 1991-92 Pittsburgh Penguins came in at number two, followed by the 1976-77 Montreal Canadiens.

Finals Appearance Will Pay For Nashville Players

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Every year, there are players entering the final year of a contract will cash in on a solid playoff run. This year, Nashville has 11 players who are at the end of their deals – 6 to become unrestricted free-agents, and 5 restricted. Almost all will see a major jump in pay heading into next season.

Pontus Aberg has had a remarkable run for a relative unknown. The impending RFA has 5 points through 13 games, including two beautiful goals. He’s displayed top-six skill at times and is now on the national stage. Viktor Arvidsson was already looking for a major payday after scoring 31 goals and 61 points during the regular season. But his dominant speed and creativity, to accompany  12 playoff points, only solidifies the probability of an expensive deal. RFA Ryan Johansen is considered by most to be a number one center in this league, and it’s a solid bet Nashville will be looking to lock him into the distant future. After trading Seth Jones for his services a couple seasons back, it’s clear that GM David Poile has complete confidence in the player’s potential, honorary mayorship aside. Frederick Gaudreau emerged out of absolutely nowhere to become a shifty top-nine element, and although he’s far from a sure thing with 14 games under his belt, it’s likely the team will want to retain his services. Thankfully, the RFA negotiation process often benefits the team’s position, keeping prices from getting astronomical.

If the team wants to bring back captain Mike Fisher for another year, or add a big free agent, it is made all the more difficult by these outbursts of productivity. National exposure does go a long way to bring prices up, and depending on the team’s vision for the future, these new contracts could cause headaches down the line. Thankfully, most of Nashville’s core is locked up to reasonable deals in the longer term. Only sniper James Neal has his contract set to expire the following year, 2018-19. Without re-signing anyone, the team has 18 players under contract with somewhere around $17 MM in space.

What Market Will Markov Attract?

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The market for Andrei Markov could be lukewarm or quite heated, and no one really seems to know which. Canadiens’ GM Marc Bergevin has been tight-lipped about his impending free agents, but it’s fair to assume he’ll have some interest in re-signing the Russian defender. That said, the cap situation for Montreal is not simple, and re-signing the dynamic unrestricted free-agent Alexander Radulov will likely take priority. The Habs also need to negotiate a contract with RFA Alex Galchenyuk, attempt to dump Tomas Plekanec’s salary, survive the expansion draft, and round out their forward corps. With Jordie Benn and Jeff Petry already looking to assume larger roles next season, Markov could easily slip through the cracks.

The 38 year-old earned a hefty $5.75 MM last season, but had reasonable production with 6 goals and 30 assists. His advanced possession numbers tell a tale, however, as he took a massive leap forward from the previous season, hitting a solid 54.0% Corsi For. His ice-time saw a slight drop (2:00 less per game), but he’s still seeing top-four minutes. Markov moves the puck well and is a power-play guru with a hard, accurate shot. He’s been the assistant captain on the Canadiens for many years and has never played in a different NHL city, but he could command a sizable final contract in this year’s complete drought of top-end players. If there ever were a time to cash in, this off-season could be it.

On the free-agent market, only Kevin Shattenkirk clearly outclasses Markov in terms of raw offensive ability from the blueline. A team might want to take a risk on a struggling but younger Michael Del Zotto or Dimitry Kulikov, but ultimately, Markov is the proven commodity. Considering that Markov has never won a championship, one would assume that if he were to leave the province of Quebec, it would be for a contender. There is no shortage of teams that could show interest. He could go to a perennial competitor on the cheap, such as the Blackhawks, or could opt for a squad like the Blue Jackets who are on the cusp of true contention. Where he lands is anyone’s guess at the moment,  but it’s fair to expect he will make a positive impact wherever he does.

Should The Rangers Buyout Girardi Or Staal?

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The New York Rangers are a team that is likely to make a buyout this off-season on the blueline. With $22.025 MM spent on the back-end, the team has expected far better results. Long past are the days where the Rangers were among the best defensive squads in the league. Both Dan Girardi and Marc Staal have drastically underperformed, as both have been burned consistently to the net. With the team potentially looking to re-sign defenseman Brendan Smith and certainly hoping to add some offensive punch to their top-nine, it seems inevitable that one of the two will find their way out of town. The trade value for both is minimal, and GM Jeff Gorton would need to execute some serious magic to unload either without a mass of sweeteners in a deal.

The biggest argument against buying out Staal is that his contract runs for a year longer. Buyouts count as cap penalties (the amount varying depending on a multitude of factors), but always for twice the amount of years of the original contract.  Staal has 4 years remaining on his contract, while Girardi only has 3 – consequently, the Rangers would take a hit in “dead space” for 8 years for the former but only 6 for the latter. That may not seem like a hugely important factor, but neither of these players is performing at an AHL level quite yet – they merely are nowhere near worth their contracts. According to CapFriendly, a Girardi buyout would be structured as $2.6 – $3.6 – $3.6 – $1.1 – $1.1 – $1.1  (in MM), whereas a Staal buyout would be structured as $2.1 – $2.1  – $3.1 – $3.9 – $1.4 – $1.4 -$1.4 – $1.4 (in MM). Many teams opt to ride out a final year with a struggling veteran than eat cap dollars for 2 whole seasons. Cap dollars truly matter, and every year you pay for a mistake is a potential lost opportunity at a deadline. Playing a player to not play whatsoever until 2025 is nothing short of drastic.

The biggest argument for buying out Girardi is, simply put, his play. His possession numbers were far worse – 44.0% vs Staal’s 46.6% Corsi For. They both had a similar number of giveaways, 47 versus 46, but Girardi had far fewer takeaways. Girardi also didn’t have what could be categorized as an anomalous season – he’s hasn’t been a positive possession player since he broke into the league. His lowest totals are also far worse than Staal’s, which implies his floor is far lower. Girardi seems slightly slower, although neither is a speedster, but he seems to take more of a physical beating on a nightly basis – which, to be fair, has a great deal to due with quality of competition. It could also easily be argued that Staal had an abysmal playoffs, which should always be a determinant factor.

Ultimately, both players are in the unenviable position of earning too much on the backend of their careers. Girardi, 33, and Staal, 30, simply aren’t in their primes as defensive defensemen. The game takes a toll on shot-blocking, physical players. There is the distinct possibility that either could rebound in a new environment, and have simply worn out their welcome in the Big Apple. But the Rangers would be unwise to gamble on both struggling players to return to their former selves. If only for cap-related reasons, Girardi would be the wiser choice to buyout.

Evening Notes: Beauchemin, Tocchet, MacKinnon

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According to Adrian Dater, it seems likely that Francois Beauchemin will not be bought out by the Colorado Avalanche. His contract is for $4.5 MM and only has one season remaining. He is 37 and signed the contract after his 35th birthday according to CapFriendly, which does make a potential buyout less worthwhile. On 35+ contracts, the team does not receive a cap benefit from a buyout, so the move would be made for other reasons. A buyout would have opened up a roster spot for a younger player and perhaps allowed them to accelerate the re-build. More importantly, it would have allowed Sakic to keep an extra young defender protected, such as Mark Barberio, in the upcoming expansion draft. Beauchemin could be asked to waive his No-Movement Clause, but there has been no indication that has been done.

A standard buyout doesn’t seem to be worth the hassle to GM Joe Sakic, so he will look to either move him for a low pick before expansion, or merely ride out the last season with the veteran. All told, Beauchemin’s stats weren’t all that terrible for a team who finished dead last in the standings. He actually performed noticeably better in possession stats than the season prior, hitting 47.9% Corsi For after a dreadful 43.4% in 2015-16. His plus/minus of -14 was actually better than any other defenseman, excluding Erik Johnson who missed half the season. His point production obviously took a hit, and he lost a step in speed, but with only one year remaining and the Avalanche facing larger issues, Sakic might be wise to turn complete attention to the trade market and drafting with the #4 pick.

  • Rick Tocchet is one of, if not the hottest, name on the coaching market right now. His work on the Penguins’ bench has been commended by many in Pittsburgh, and multiple teams with coaching vacancies have already hinted at their interest. The Buffalo Sabres in particular seem quite high on him. According to Dan Rosen, however, Tocchet’s phone has been remained quiet as his team advanced to the finals. Other organizations have put their pursuit of his talents on hold, as they are allowing him to perform his duties for the Penguins squad in the finals. Tocchet struggled in Tampa Bay as a head coach before landing the assistant position in Pittsburgh under then-coach Mike Johnston. He was a vocal critic of the special teams and handling of stars as a continual radio guest in the Pittsburgh area, before getting the recommendation from owner Mario Lemieux. He survived the cleansing of the coaching staff when Johnston was fired, and has thrived in his new role under Mike Sullivan. His ability to communicate effectively with talented players and coordinate plays have been the most appreciated in Steel City.
  • Another note on Sakic and the Avalanche – on Friday, when TSN created its “Top 30 Trade BaitBoard”, Nathan MacKinnon found himself included. While nothing should be out of the question for a team that finished 30th overall and with only 49 points, MacKinnon appears to be the only true untouchable on the team. Nothing short of an absurd overpayment would pry him out of Denver, as his value to that team is greater than to any of the other 29 organizations. The 21 year old only posted 16 goals last season, but the entire team was dreadful, and Nathan is a safe bet to rebound. Anything is possible, but in all likelihood he is the forward around which the rest of the team will be built. When the team drafts at #4 in this year’s draft, it will be with his needs at least partially in mind.

Canadiens And Galchenyuk Face Difficult Negotiations

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There is a great deal of uncertainty in Montreal after a disappointing first round exit, where they struggled to score goals with consistency. The issues at center ice continue to haunt the organization. Thomas Plekanec has slowed down with age and could easily find himself exposed in the expansion draft, if not traded away later in the season. They need Alex Galchenyuk to become a bonafide top-six (if not #1) center. And yet, this past season, he struggled mightily down the stretch. His 2-year bridge deal is now expired and the RFA will need to come to terms with the Montreal franchise which has expressed quite a bit of frustration with his play.

Arbitration is certainly an option for Galchenyuk. The player’s agent, Pat Brisson is certainly willing to negotiate a one-year deal, but will the Canadiens want to risk Alex having a career year and skyrocketing his cost? That decision could be unwise tactically on the part of management. Ryan Spzorger of The Hockey Writers believes that the Canadiens would be foolish to pass up the opportunity to sign the potential number-one center long term. Especially after a relatively “down” season, Galchenyuk could be signed to a relative bargain, keeping the Canadiens’ cap structure reasonable for years to come.

There are two major issues which could cause negotiations to stall. First, there is a definite gap in perceived value between the player and the organization. The Canadiens have repeatedly dropped Galchenyuk down the lineup, with the player seeing the third line these playoffs alongside the likes of Andrew Shaw and Artturi Lehkonen. Fellow 23 year-old Phillip Danault usurped his spot on the top line, and the mediocre Tomas Plekanec leapfrogged him as well. His defensive play has been the subject of constant criticism, both under current coach Claude Julien as well as former coach Michel Therrien. Second, he has continually been shuffled from wing to center and back again. Players who have played the majority of their career up the middle don’t often appreciate the shift, nor react well to it. Although Galchenyuk has obviously been frustrated with the situation, he has tried his best to adapt to a foreign position on the left side, to little success.

Galchenyuk’s value as a trade piece shouldn’t be understated if the gap between the negotiating parties is too great. GM Marc Bergevin could be tempted to move him for a more “established” center if the offers from other teams increase in frequency. In the end, it seems likely that the parties will compromise on a short-term contract somewhere in the range of $5-6 MM. This would provide Galchenyuk further incentive to perform and gives Montreal an “out” if he continues to regress. A year removed from a 30 goal, 56 point season, it would be a mistake to not include Galchenyuk as part of the Canadiens’ future plans.

Where Will Thornton Land?

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With a free-agent class this sparse, the expansion draft and the transactions it will force are certain to steal much of the thunder from Free Agent “Frenzy”. That said, there are quite a few names, who while not dazzling, could be invaluable additions to a cup-contending team. One of the names that has often been overlooked thus far is the masterful playmaker Joe Thornton. Only a year removed from a Stanley Cup Final, the San Jose Sharks now will need to make a decision on their two long-time leaders in Patrick Marleau and Thornton. For all the flack the forwards have gotten over the years for leadership issues, including both being stripped of the captaincy, they have been remarkably consistent assets to their franchise.

Marleau looks the more likely of the two to stay put. The 37 year-old did net 27 goals this past season, good for 3rd on the team behind only Joe Pavelski and Brent Burns. With him being only one of three forwards to net more than 11 goals last year, his loss of production could be devastating. Unless Marleau wants to chase a championship elsewhere, he seems a good lock to stay. He will certainly be expected to take a paycut from his $6.66 MM, as would Thornton ($6.7 MM) if he decided to stay. Thornton, on the other hand, could get quite expensive, and negotiations could be considerably more complicated.

Proven, top-nine capable centers are at the top of many teams’ wanted lists. Most teams in the league wouldn’t be averse to taking Jumbo Joe on a sweet deal, so you could even expect a cap-crunched squad like Chicago or Pittsburgh to make a call if he truly is looking for a championship. Toronto would certainly be willing to take a risk on the aging player, and Edmonton would love his veteran presence. Anaheim and St. Louis would both love his talents as a third-line pivot and are both conceivably just a piece away. Montreal looks to be headed in the direction of youth up front, but they’ve been looking for a strong presence up the middle for years. There is no shortage of landing spots for Thornton if he would decide to test the market, and this interest could easily drive his price up.

Ultimately, however, it’s hard to see Thornton leaving Northern California, especially to a conference rival. He has stated his desire to return to the team, saying “I’d love to come back….but we’ll have to see.” It could turn into a drawn-out process, depending on how hard other teams make strong pitches for him. He is 38 years-old and scored just 7 goals last season, so age is an element that will enter the calculus in a new deal. But when the next best available centers are Martin Hanzal and Nick Bonino, the competition for his services could get fierce. As of yet, no contract negotiations have reportedly begun for either Marleau or Thornton.

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