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Flyers’ Bloated Forward Contracts Becoming Issue

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The Philadelphia Flyers haven’t seen the second round of the post-season since 2012, and in those 5 seasons since, missed the show entirely 3 times. For a team that spends as much on offense as the Flyers, their production has been incredibly mediocre. Many point to the seemingly never-ending goaltending carousel as the root cause of the team’s woes, and they wouldn’t be entirely incorrect. That said, over the last four seasons, their goals for per 60 minutes (GF60) is good for only 25th league-wide. That puts them above only the Vancouver Canucks, Carolina Hurricanes, Arizona Coyotes, New Jersey Devils, and Buffalo Sabres in that timeframe. In short, their offense has been remarkably underwhelming for years. And yet, the team is allocating $47.32 MM of its available $75 MM to its forward group in 2017-18, with most of that money tied up in only a handful of skaters. For comparison’s sake, that’s more than $5 MM more than their divisional rivals in Pittsburgh or Washington.

Leading the pack in terms of bloated contracts are the team’s captain Claude Giroux and last season’s team-points-leader Jakub Voracek. Neither player is detrimental to the cause – they both have tallied multiple 50+ point seasons with relative consistency. That said, their contracts are some of the most exorbitant in the league. Giroux’s $8.275 MM AAV for the next 5 seasons puts him in an elite group of forwards. So does Voracek’s $8.25 MM for the next 7 seasons. This places them 12th and 13th respectively among the highest paid players league-wide for the 2017-18 season. Giroux’s career PPG is .87, while Voracek’s is a measly .71. Excluding defensemen P.K. Subban and goaltender Henrik Lundqvist, these stats simply don’t match up to the rest of the “elite” group. Jonathan Toews’ and Anze Kopitar both also account for around .87 PPG, but unarguably do far more on the defensive side of the puck than the simply capable Giroux. One of these bloated contracts alone would be a hindrance; two on the same roster is nearly insurmountable.

Further down the roster, you see other albatross contracts. Valtteri Filppula was acquired by the Flyers to shore up the center position and increase playmaking ability. He only scored 8 points through 20 games in Philadelphia. Thankfully for the Flyers, his $5 MM contract expires at the end of 2017-18. Jori Lehtera was acquired this off-season in a bizarre move for Brayden Schenn, who arguably saw a great deal of improvement last season. Lehtera has only two seasons remaining at $4.7 MM, but his only effective (44 points) season is two years in the past. He scored only 7 goals all last season. Then there’s Sean Couturier, who while not a total dud, has failed to progress the way the organization hoped when they drafted him with the 8th overall in 2011 acquired as part of the Jeff Carter transaction. He provides solid defensive play, but he has never broken 40 points, and seemingly regressed last season, falling out of Selke conversations. He has 5 seasons remaining at a moderate $4.33 MM AAV. Wayne Simmonds (the one true bargain on the team) and Matt Read both make over $3 MM, while Dale Weise and Michael Raffl both draw over $2 MM. For a team that truly struggles to put the puck in the net, a lot of money is being spent on marginal players.

Ultimately, the Flyers are in a difficult spot playing in the Metropolitan Division. With the high-flying, offensively-dynamic Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins competing for playoff positioning, the inclination to try and duplicate those franchises is only natural. The team did luck into a dynamic, potentially franchise, talent in Nolan Patrick, which may help alleviate some of the problems with consistent offensive production. That said, if the Flyers continue to struggle this season, look for some of the offensive big guns to find themselves on the trading block. Excluding the one year of Filppula and the incredibly valuable Simmonds, only Giroux has any sort of no-movement clause. With Ivan Provorov and Shayne Gostisbehere looking to be core pieces on the back-end for many years, the day may soon come where an offensive overhaul visits Philadelphia. GM Ron Hextall will have money moving out in the next few seasons, but he undoubtedly has decisions to make going forward, particularly if this season again falls short of a playoff appearance.

Islanders’ 2017-18 Season Could Spark Roster Turnover

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The New York Islanders have a difficult season ahead of them, not least of which the arena uncertainty which has been plaguing the team for a decade. After a tumultuous season in Brooklyn at the Barclay’s Center, many fans are simply concerned with finding a proper home in the New York area. Additionally, much attention has been paid to the impending unrestricted free agency of John Tavares at the conclusion of the season. There is good reason for the fanbase’s focus to be centered around captain Tavares, as he will likely be the domino that needs to fall first. That said, the Islanders have 11 expiring NHL contracts at the end of the 2017-18 season, and if the team fails to make the playoffs again, even more expansive changes could be on the horizon.

It should be noted that the Islanders weren’t entirely quiet this off-season, as GM Garth Snow made some unorthodox but ultimately effective moves with Vegas to shield younger players and ship out injured Mikhail Grabovski’s contract. Perhaps more importantly, regards to retaining Tavares, was the acquisition of good friend and skillful finisher Jordan Eberle to play on the star center’s wing. Travis Hamonic was able to be moved for a hefty return from Calgary, and although the team was unable to draw in names from free agency, their young forwards look capable of taking a step forward this season. Although Snow has certainly struggled at times in his tenure, this off-season went about as well as could be expected. All that remains is to sign RFA Calvin de Haan.

The panic begins to set in when you compare the Islanders’ roster with that of the rest of the Metropolitan Division. Pittsburgh will again be a contender. Washington got worse but still won the President’s Trophy last season. Columbus almost unquestionably improved their roster on paper. Carolina added depth in all areas of the ice, including Scott Darling in net. The New York Rangers saw a massive upgrade on defense by subtracting Dan Girardi and adding Kevin Shattenkirk. And the less intimidating Philadelphia Flyers and New Jersey Devils each added a monumental talent to their forward groups at the draft in Nolan Patrick and Nico Hischier, respectively. It’s rather arguably the toughest division in the entire league, and the Islanders will have no guarantees of making the playoffs. If they fail to do so, Tavares may only be the beginning of their issues.

Among the unrestricted free agents after the conclusion of the season are Nikolai Kulemin, Josh Bailey, Jason Chimera, Thomas Hickey, Dennis Seidenberg, Jaroslav Halak and the aforementioned Tavares. The restricted free agents on NHL contracts include Brock Nelson, Shane Prince, Alan Quine, Ryan Pulock, Scott Mayfield. Although no name on either list is truly vital, losing 4 or 5 free agents for nothing at the conclusion of the season could be a disastrous error in asset management. Bailey and Hickey in particular may attract solid interest at the trade deadline, but Snow and management will necessarily be determined to make the post-season. If they are still in contention for a spot, it’s hard to see them shipping any roster assets away as long as they are not mathematically eliminated. This situation will only become more dramatic if the Tavares negotiations are still ongoing.

Plainly, the worst case scenario for the Isles would be that Tavares leaves at the conclusion of the year. But it must also be realized that the longer the process drags on, the more consideration might be paid to the feasibility of moving him. The coming season cannot be the entire focus of the franchise. If minimal progress is made by the new year, the team could see a situation where an important cog on the team might leave for absolutely nothing. Worse, his situation may lead to the sacrificing of other assets in the confusion. The Islanders dealt with this last off-season when Frans Nielsen decided to depart for Detroit, stunning Islanders management. Repeating such a mistakewould be absolutely inexcusable, and if unrestricted free agents are unwilling to re-sign or no longer part of the team’s future, they must be moved in the interest of the organization.  The same goes for Tavares. Although losing Tavares would be absolutely crippling, it would be fatal to lose him without recouping any assets whatsoever.

Reid Boucher Signs One-Year Deal With Canucks

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Winger Reid Boucher, a restricted free-agent, signed a one-year contract with Vancouver tonight, avoiding the arbitration process. Boucher was scheduled to have his hearing on August 1st, but instead was able to hammer out a deal with Canucks management. The contract is worth a reported $687,5000, as Stephen Whyno of AP broke the news. This is definitely a “prove-it” sort of deal, and Boucher will need to carve out his own playing time through consistent effort.

Boucher swapped teams twice in 2016-17, moving from New Jersey to Nashville before settling in British Columbia. Boucher had his possession numbers improve under his tenure with Vancouver, playing 27 games for a relative Corsi For % of -0.6. Contrasted with his performance in New Jersey up to that point, he had seemingly started to find a groove. Boucher did find a bit of offensive production as well, scoring 6 goals and 4 points on the year in only 39 total games. At 23 years old, Boucher still has the potential to progress as a player. He is a bit undersized at a mere 5’10, but has shown flashes of being a cheap goal-scoring contributor. He’ll need to continue to clean up his two-way game in order to truly cement himself on an NHL roster.

With this contract signed, GM Jim Benning will now turn his attention to fellow RFA Bo Horvat and Brendan Gaunce. Gaunce is also a marginal piece, but Horvat will be a core player for many years. Locking him up on a longer deal at a reasonable hit now becomes Benning’s clear number one priority.

Evening Notes: Hurricanes’ Ownership, Oduya, Dumoulin

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For anyone trying to pay attention the Hurricanes’ ownership struggles, another chapter has been added to the ongoing saga. The team, currently owned by a group headed by Peter Karmanos, Jr., has been rumored to be up for sale for some time. The financial situation of the team is difficult, as attendance issues over the past few years have brought monetary losses and concern from other owners around the league. Still, it seems that Carolina is nowhere near the dire situation of the Arizona Coyotes, whose decade-plus-long fiasco has bewildered onlookers and hockey fans for quite some time.

Not long ago, a potential buyer for the Hurricanes, one Chuck Greenberg, supposedly offered $500 MM to acquire the franchise. This was reported by Scott Soshnick of Bloomberg and The Denver Post, and confirmed by others. Afterwards, the Karmanos group responded by saying the reports were essentially misleading, and then were called “fake news” in an article published by Forbes. Technically, it was a non-binding letter of intent and not an official offer, but that shouldn’t discount the strong possibility of an impending team sale.

Today we learned that Greenberg showed up at the team’s practice facility, thanks to some wonderful reporting by The News & Observer’s Chip Alexander. Greenberg stopped by the Raleigh Center Ice location, and essentially conducted a “fact-finding trip”. The whole situation is confusing largely because the franchise’s estimated value has plummeted and the offer is exceptionally fair. Additionally, the Karmanos group has been looking to sell the Canes for years to a team that will keep them local. This was reported yet again this January by NBC’s Adam Gretz, and it’s no secret there is desire from the fanbase for a change in direction. Greenberg seems to be a perfect solution to the situation, as he has local investors involved and stated no plans for relocation. As of now, there seems to be a lot going on behind the scenes, and many moving parts. Still, a change in ownership seems more likely today than it did yesterday.

  • After today’s earlier announcement of the Brian Dumoulin 6-year, $4.1 MM AAV signing, it has been revealed that the Penguins’ shutdown force played with a broken hand. The Post-Gazette’s Jason Mackey reported that Dumoulin kept re-breaking the fracture before it could heal, during the course of normal play. He broke it after blocking a slapshot in the fifth game of the first round against Columbus, The dependable stay-at-home defender played incredibly well, often matching up against top opponents and maintaining solid body position boxing out attackers in front of his goaltenders. He even tallied two goals throughout the Stanley Cup run, so the nature of the injury does come as a little surprising. He and the Penguins medical staff considered the possibility of Dumoulin undergoing surgery this off-season to repair the damage, but it no longer seems necessary. Dumoulin believes the injury has healed well enough on its own and that he should be ready for action come season opener.
  • Johnny Oduya shocked many by signing a deal so soon for $1 MM and bonuses, as Ottawa had apparently been courting him since “July 2nd”. As I reported yesterday, interest for the player never really openly surfaced among the insiders of the league. Oduya comes at great value for the Senators, and GM Pierre Dorion expressed his glee at a press conference you can find partially transcribed by Craig Megdalia here. Essentially, Dorion felt the move was absolutely necessary considering the loss of veteran Marc Methot to expansion (before being shipped to Dallas), and although he has confidence in his younger players, he couldn’t miss the opportunity to bring in “a true pro”. By the sound of it, Dorion expects coach Guy Boucher to likely place Oduya in a prominent role, which could push out a younger player such as Thomas Chabot.

Defensive Logjam In Dallas Not Concerning

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The Dallas Stars are in an enviable position, but one that might prompt a trade in the near future. After years of drafting heavily on defense, their prospect pool at the position is incredibly deep. Heading into training camp, at present, they will have at least 9 defensemen fighting for 7 roster spots. Theoretically, the could keep 8 on the roster for a time and keep only one spare forward, but ultimately, someone is going to lose out.

As of today, the team has Marc Methot, John Klingberg, Dan Hamhuis, Esa Lindell as their highest paid defenders. They also have Patrik Nemeth, Greg Pateryn, and Stephen Johns signed to NHL contracts, who are all over the age of 25 and would be waiver eligible if the team attempted to waive them for AHL use. There is also the still promising Jamie Oleksiak, an RFA who still needs to negotiate his contract. Finally, Julius Honka looks ready to take an NHL roster position after spot duty in Dallas last season. There are also more defensemen on the horizon, including the steal of a first-round pick of this season, Miro Heiskanen. Heiskaen is likely to return to his native Finland, but less talented players have forced teams to keep them on board. So, who makes the team? And will anyone be on the move?

Discounting the most expensive four, Nemeth and others should be concerned about being usurped. It seems that Honka has proven everything he can at the AHL level, and with his talent could end up outclassing everyone not named Klingberg or Methot with a good camp showing. Still, he can be moved down without needing to clear waivers. Oleksiak has shown real flashes as a former first-round shutdown player, but Pateryn and Nemeth both ended up playing a similar number of contests last season, and are second-rounders themselves. Despite limited action, their possession numbers were solid (49.9% and 51.3% respectively Corsi For) and there aren’t major faults in either players’ games. Oleksiak still has kinks to work out in his game, but his size (6’7) is probably just too tempting to move him at the tender age of 24. Johns played more games of any of the others, and brings a physicality that will likely endear him to new head coach Ken Hitchcock, despite his other shortcomings.

Ultimately, this is a camp that will be brutally competitive. The Stars won’t want to lose any of these players for nothing. Teams are always looking for youngish defenders on the cheap, and both Pateryn and Oleksiak would fit that bill nicely. Hamhuis would be tempting to move out, but he still eats a ton of minutes and provides veteran leadership to a young group. Lindell isn’t safe either, and moving his salary ($2.2) would be more helpful than unloading the cheap Pateryn or Johns. At the end of the day, it’s a wonderful problem to have, as depth at the position is always integral when players go down to injury. The Dallas Morning News’ Mike Heika is probably correct in his prediction that the organization will allow the situation to sort itself out on its own. Internal competition can be healthy, and by September many teams will be desperate to fill defensive holes on the cheap. Still, it will be a fascinating situation to watch develop.

Dead Space: Bought-Out, Buried, And Retained Salaries For Every Team

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It’s something that often goes unnoticed, but with the cap showing minimal growth the last few years, teams are starting to feel the crunch more than ever. Buyouts have become more common, especially with players with under three remaining years on their contracts. And it’s not just the big name busts that have seen the ax lately – we’ve seen lesser names at lesser money take the fall for their respective teams, then needing to scramble for work elsewhere in the league. Additionally, salary retention in trades has become a more utilized tactic as of late. Teams with “unmovable” contracts have offered to retain part of a poor contract in order to entice a team into giving them some relief.

All this said, some teams have been better with foresight than others. Some teams have shown a track record of being entirely unable of handing out poor contracts over the past five or so seasons. Considering many teams showed some progress in being more frugal this off-season, it seems a wise time to review the dead space every team has accumulated, either due to poor management decisions or poor luck.

Colorado Avalanche – $4.83 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after current year – Francois Beauchemin buyout; Cody McLeod retained

Arizona Coyotes – $4.61 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2020-21 – Mike Smith retained; Mike Ribeiro, Antoine Vermette buyouts

Columbus Blue Jackets – $4.025 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2020-21 – Fedor Tyutin, Jared Boll, Scott Hartnell buyouts

Carolina Hurricanes – $3.71 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2020-21 – Eddie Lack retained; Alexander Semin, James Wisniewski buyouts

Toronto Maple Leafs – $3.28 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2021-22 – Tim Gleason, Jared Cowen buyouts; Phil Kessel retained

Nashville Predators – $2.83 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2018-19 – Viktor Stalberg, Eric Nystrom, Barret Jackman buyouts

Boston Bruins – $2.73 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved 2019-20 – Dennis Seidenberg, Jimmy Hayes buyouts

New York Rangers – $2.61 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2022-23 – Dan Girardi buyout

Minnesota Wild – $2.5 MM in 2017-17, issues resolved after current year – Thomas Vanek buyout

Los Angeles Kings – $2.4 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2023-24 – Matt Greene buyout; Mike Richards termination/recapture

Edmonton Oilers – $2.33 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2020-21 – Lauri Korpikoski, Benoit Pouliot buyouts

Anaheim Ducks – $2.21 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2023-24 – Mark Fistric, Simon Despres buyouts; Patrick Maroon retained

Vancouver Canucks – $2.13 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2021-22 – Roberto Luongo, Jannik Hansen retained; Chris Higgins buyout

New Jersey Devils – $2.09 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2023-24 – Mike Cammalleri, Devante Smith-Pelly buyouts; Ilya Kovalchuk recapture

Tampa Bay Lightning – $1.83 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2019-20 – Matt Carle buyout

Calgary Flames – $1.82 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2018-19 – Mason Raymond, Lance Bouma, Ryan Murphy buyouts

Detroit Red Wings – $1.67 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2020-21 – Stephen Weiss buyout

Dallas Stars – $1.5 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2018-19- Antti Niemi buyout

Philadelphia Flyers – $1.5 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after current year – R.J. Umberger buyout

Winnipeg Jets – $1.46 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2018-19 – Mark Stuart buyout

Florida Panthers – $1.33 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2018-19 – Jussi Jokinen buyout

Las Vegas Golden Knights – $1.1 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after current year – Alexei Emelin retained

Ottawa Senators – $350,000 in 2017-18, issues resolved after current year – Andrew Hammond buried

Buffalo Sabres – Minimal in 2017-18, increased issues ($791,00) resolved after 2022-23 – Cody Hodgson buyout

 

 

Chicago Blackhawks, St. Louis Blues, Washington Capitals, Pittsburgh Penguins, New York Islanders, San Jose Sharks,  Montreal Canadiens – No dead cap space

After compiling the list, it became clear that utilizing these options isn’t a complete hindrance to competing in the NHL. In fact, most clubs have between $1 MM and $3 MM in dead space. That said, of the teams that have not needed to utilize the buyout or retention options, there has been a great deal of success. And among the five worst offenders, the Leafs, Hurricanes, Blue Jackets, Avalanche, and Coyotes, none has moved past the first-round in multiple years. It’s hard to draw massive conclusions without taking the context of each individual situation into account, but there is something to be said for making every dollar of cap space count. Perhaps this is merely a byproduct of past success rather than an indicator of future success, but considering how amenable many managers have become to the option, it bears consideration.

(All totals courtesy of the fantastic CapFriendly.com)

Minor Notes: Didier, Muzito-Bagenda, Tarasov

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It has been a relatively eventful day for a Monday in late July for the NHL. RFA fever and impending arbitration is occupying many general managers’ time. That said, teams have also been busy at work with their AHL rosters and reviewing their prospect situations.

The Rochester Americans, the Buffalo Sabres’ AHL affiliate, announced the signing of Daniel Muzito-Bagenda to a two-way contract. The former Missassauga Steelhead generally plays on his off wing, the right side. He’s never displayed overwhelming offensive capabilities, and did struggle slightly to adjust to the North American game after playing two seasons for MODO’s under-20 squad in Sweden. He played well for the Steelheads in their very abbreviated playoff appearance in the 2015-16, leading that team in points through their 7 games played. Last season he played in 61 games for the Amerks, tallying only 15 points.

Muzito-Bagenda has a lot to prove if he wants to push for a 4th-line call up. Still, for a 6’1 player he has decent promise and should be able to improve his output at least marginally. The only way he’ll see spot duty is if there is a mass of injuries and he leapfrogs many others. Still, at only 21, he has room to grow.

  • The Charlotte Checkers, Carolina’s AHL Affiliate, signed defenseman Josiah Didier to a two-way contract today. Didier split time between the AHL in St. John’s and the ECHL in Brampton last season. It will be interesting to see if he can solidify himself some playing time this year and earn consideration for another contract down the line. He only saw 39 games of action and tallied a meager 8 points in that time. At 24 years old, the former fourth-round pick of Montreal is certainly hoping to finally put it together. His right-handed shot is certainly intriguing, but this will have to be the year to get noiced.
  • The NHL website ran an intriguing piece on Columbus’ 3rd round selection at the 2017 Draft, goaltender Daniil Tarasov. Tarasov showcased some amazing ability at the 2016 World Juniors, but missed the year due to injury. He could prove another sneaky good selection by GM Jarmo Kekalainen, who has truly revitalized that franchise through solid scouting and prospect management. Finally getting recovering to ful health once again, Tarasov will ease himself back into the game by playing for the “junior KHL”, the MHL, for a team called Topar Ulfa. It will be interesting to see whether this gamble pays off, and how quickly Tarasov could push for a KHL position. His athleticism and poise definitely turned heads, but a year off can harm any player’s development.

Which Of The RFAs Slotted For Arbitration Will Earn The Most?

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Arbitration can be a useful tool for players in a number of ways. It accelerates the contract negotiation process and puts it on a definitive timetable. It puts the player in a position where they can (theoretically) promote their own cause and posture for a greater paycheck. And in some cases, the threat of a mere one-to-two year ruling scares the team in question into handing out more term than they may otherwise have been comfortable.

With Tomas Tatar earning $5.3 MM AAV, Viktor Arvidsson earning $4.25 MM, and Colton Parayko raking in $5.5 MM all in the last few days, many players are earning longer deals with impressive cap hits before reaching their scheduled date. Only 14 names remain slotted for arbitration, but there are still a few names out there who are seeking a raise. Those players are Austin Watson, Brian Dumoulin, Mika Zibanejad, Ryan Spooner, Robin Lehner, Matt Nieto, Connor Hellebuyck, Reid Boucher, Calvin de Haan, Nate Schmidt, Nino Niederreiter, Mikael Granlund, Conor Sheary, and Nathan Beaulieu.

Keep in mind that most of the remaining names will likely come to an agreement prior to their dates, which could affect the prices. That said, who do you think ends up seeing the highest AAV on their next contract? Take our poll below!

(Mobile users, click here to vote.)

Colorado Has Room To Fill Out Organization, Take Risks

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The Colorado Avalanche are at a bit of a crossroads, one that could play out in a number of different ways. As of this date in late July, the Avs only have 35 players locked into organizational contracts, with only 3 RFAs left to sign. Those players are Matt Nieto (who filed for arbitration, scheduled on July 31), Nikita Zadorov, and Rocco Grimaldi. Assuming they do sign all three, they are 12 players beneath the maximum 50 allowable contracts. For a team that completely lost the rails last season in the worst post-lockout season yet, this might be a cause for alarm. But it’s also an opportunity.

GM Joe Sakic has drawn lots of fire from around the league on his handling of the Matt Duchene trade sweepstakes. Many believe he has asked for too much in return or has been unrealistic about the player’s worth. That said, he still has a highly dynamic center on a reasonable contract who has every possibility of recouping some of his value come September. Ultimately, however, we might judge Sakic by his reluctance to re-sign aging players and to move on from veteran names. Although scoring will almost certainly take a hit, when in the midst of a dismal rebuild, it’s generally unwise to block roster positions from prospects.

Sakic let Francois Beauchemin (37), Rene Bourque (35), Fedor Tyutin (34), and John Mitchell (32) all walk, in addition to 8 other players. He unloaded Jarome Iginla (40) at the trade deadline for a pick, and sniped up David Warsofsky, Jonathan Bernier, and Nail Yakupov to relatively cheap deals this off-season. While none of these moves is particularly shocking, it shows that management is on the correct page when it comes to getting younger and embracing the inevitable tank. It will undoubtedly be a tough season again in Denver, but there does seem to be a plan starting to finally coalesce.

Perhaps what is most imperative from here forward, is that after figuratively clearing the deck, the organization fills the gaps with players that make long-term sense. Sakic should make a serious endeavor to fill remaining roster contracts to players on the right side of 30, preferably those who will provide solid production at the AHL level, who might have some chance of eventually becoming contributors. If he’s particularly sensible, Sakic would seek out as many young, undrafted college and overseas players with upside as he can. Conor Sheary type players are difficult to find, but every season it seems one or two players comes out of nowhere. Sakic should be beating the bushes for unknown quantities to fill out San Antonio. The Rampage finished with only 27 wins last season, which only made the defeated fanbase’s outlook bleaker. With the Avalanche looking primed to find themselves in the Central’s basement once again, it would be wise to build a competent squad down in the minors and hope that a winning mindset floats upward.

Notably, the Avalanche are thin on defense. They’ll need to rely upon unproven youngsters on the bottom pairing, as Zadorov, Erik Johnson, Tyson Barrie, and Mark Barberio, and Warsofsky are the only players with over 100 NHL games played. None inspires a ton of confidence. Anton Lindholm has 12 games experience, Duncan Siemens has 4, and Chris Bigras has 31. Andrei Mironov, 22 and coming over from Dynamo Moscow, will have a solid crack at a spot, but it’s too early to tell how well he’ll adapt to the North American game. If Sakic were to add another NHL body, it would almost surely be on the left side.

An important component of any franchise which can go unnoticed is the depth signings at the AHL level, in addition to drafting and scouting. Sakic has given himself the leeway to build a supporting cast as he sees fit, and now we will merely need to wait and see what path he decides to take.

Free Agent Profile: Johnny Oduya

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Johnny Oduya is a name that has fallen off most hockey fanatics’ radar this off-season, and perhaps there is good reason for that. Oduya is 35 years old and came off a brutal playoff performance in their sweep against Nashville. The league is certainly trending in the “what have you done for me lately” direction, so no one should be entirely shocked that he remains unclaimed this deep into July.

That said, it’s still conceivable that he has a bounce back year. For a bargain bin price, he’s worth taking a shot on. Although his dreadful 2016-17 outing had him finish with only 9 points and an uninspiring 46.8% Corsi For, he’d been above the 50% mark the prior 5 seasons. He can lo longer handle a ton of minutes, and he will need sheltering from top competition, as many bottom-pairing defensemen do. He only averaged 18:16 of ice-time through the year, but considering that 59.3% of his zone starts were in the defensive end, he managed to hold his own. As a veteran 6th or 7th defenseman, he may still have something to offer.

Potential Suitors

The Blackhawks are seemingly always looking to re-unite with names from their past glories, but the fit may not be one Stan Bowman is willing to try again. He looked sluggish and out of sorts, and got blown by on numerous occasion by the depth players of Nashville. That said, the team will likely need at least another defenseman on the roster, so it’s not impossible. But with Duncan Keith (34), Brent Seabrook (32), and Michal Rozsival (38) already making up half the defense, do they really want to get older still?

Oduya hasn’t been definitively linked to practically anyone. It’s quite possible he’s holding on to see what opens up as teams enter training camp. Teams like the Washington Capitals, Philadelphia Flyers, and Los Angeles Kings could use another 6/7, and would be on the hunt for a bargain. The New Jersey Devils of course completely lacking on the back-end, and might want a mentor for 22 year olds Mirco Mueller, Damon Severson, and Michael Kapla. In truth, a good 50% of the league that could afford to take a chance on him for a single season, but the question remains, who will?

Ultimately, we aren’t likely to hear much chatter on this front until the arbitration period has passed. Teams want to have their organizational contracts set in stone before offering a contract to what will ultimately amount to a stop-gap defender solution.

Projected Contract

Last month, we projected a one-year, $2.5MM deal for Oduya back with Chicago, but they certainly no longer have him in their plans. We had him ranked at a respectable 32nd in a weak UFA class, but even that may have been overestimating his remaining value around the league. Oduya will likely have to settle for a one-year deal to prove he still “has it”, and the monetary value of that contract will be far less. He could always decide to play in Europe, but at the bare minimum he’ll attract at PTO, much like Cody Franson. If he does sign before the end of summer, it will likely be for under $1 MM, quite the paycut from his 2016-17 AAV of $3.75 MM.

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