Picking This Year’s Cinderella Run Has Never Been Easier
The Utah Mammoth enter play Saturday with a 37-30-6 record, squarely in position for their first playoff berth via the wild-card spot in the West. They’re 3-5-2 in their last 10 games. In the Eastern Conference, they’d be seven points out of a playoff berth.
If you lump in the Coyotes’ history with the rebirthed Utah franchise, this club hasn’t made the playoffs in a full season since 2012. If you want to go all the way back to their origins as the original Winnipeg Jets, this team has won just four playoff series since entering the NHL in 1979 – once each as the Jets in 1985 and 1987, twice as the Coyotes in their run to the ’12 Western Conference Final.
Yet the Utah Mammoth, in their first season with their new namesake, are a glaringly obvious pick to upset their way through the first two rounds of the playoff bracket and end up as one of the league’s final four teams. Why?
Everyone knows the Pacific Division is bad. Few realize how dire the situation truly is.
There are four regular-season stats that consistently predict postseason haves and have-nots, as Daily Faceoff’s Brock Seguin pointed out earlier this week. Of the last 10 Stanley Cup champions, nine have been in the top 10 in 5-on-5 goals share, eight have been top 12 in 5-on-5 expected goals share, all have been top 12 in 5-on-5 save percentage, and nine have been top 12 in combined power play and penalty kill percentage.
Utah is all but guaranteed to end up in the Pacific bracket as the better wild card. A look at those numbers clearly shows that none of the three teams earning divisional berths stands much of a chance.
The Ducks, on track for their first division title in nine years and first postseason appearance in eight, might be the worst offenders of the bunch. They have a -15 goal differential at 5-on-5 this season for a GF% of 47.6%, 21st in the league. Their expected goals share is right at the 50% waterline, but still ranks 17th. Their goaltending, a boon earlier in the season, has fallen to a 26th-ranked .896 5-on-5 save percentage. Their combined special teams percentage of 96.7% is 24th.
Of course, the Ducks might just be a statistical anomaly. Very little about their profile suggests they should be the 40-win team they already are. They’re not particularly lucky, finishing 0.3% below league average with a 98.9 PDO, and own a -4 goal differential. Who’s to say that can’t continue in the playoffs?
They’ll be matching up against the Mammoth, though. For the second year in a row, Andre Tourigny’s Utah club is much, much better than its record indicates.
Take all the above stats in contrast. They’re eighth in the NHL in 5-on-5 GF% (53.1). Sixth in xGF% (52.7%). 21st in save percentage (.902). 26th in combined special teams (96.4%).
Yes, their struggling power play is a significant reason why their record isn’t any better. In a playoff environment with tighter calls, there are fewer of them to be had, though, and it carries less weight than everything else.
Is Karel Vejmelka a Stanley Cup-caliber starting goaltender? Probably not. It’s clear, though, that Utah’s dominant 5-on-5 play should be more than enough to ensure a wild-card-over-division-champ upset over the Ducks. It should also be enough to get them past a similarly flawed Oilers or Golden Knights roster in the second round, as those clubs are likely ticketed for the #2/#3 matchup.
The only stats in which the Oilers grade out as a potential Cup contender are expected goals share (51.4%) – the least reliable indicator among the four stats outlined – and their combined 107.7% special teams rate. Penalty trouble could sink the Mammoth, sure. But even at the Oilers’ greatest 5-on-5 strength, Utah grades out as a better possession-control team. The Oilers’ horrid 5-on-5 goaltending – 31st in the league at a .887 SV% – could be enough on its own to offset any special teams gains.
If they face Vegas, they’d be coming up against the only team with a worse goaltending situation this year than Edmonton (.885). The Knights’ possession numbers do make them more of a threat, though, with their 5-on-5 GF% ranking 19th (48.5%) and their xGF% (53.1%) all the way up at fifth. That’s miles ahead of Edmonton, and they’ve got the league’s fourth-best special teams efficacy at 106.8%, so they pose a greater challenge. But like Edmonton, Vegas’ lack of a clear-cut #1 option in net – and not for a good reason – will likely be enough to sink them against an above-average finishing squad in Utah.
Of course, the narrative falls apart when pitting the Mammoth against a potential Central Division opponent in the Western Conference Final. Average the league-wide ranks of those four stats among the teams currently in playoff position, and the Avalanche, Stars, and Wild are three of the top four teams.
Still, it’s excessively rare to almost expect a wild-card team to be playing playoff hockey into late May. It would be a great story to see one of the league’s most exciting up-and-coming franchises in Utah, particularly one with such a meager history of success, make a deep run. It would also be one of the least surprising developments of the spring, despite what a traditional wild-card narrative may dictate.
Maple Leafs Reassign Bo Groulx
The Maple Leafs have assigned center Benoit-Olivier Groulx to the AHL’s Toronto Marlies, the team’s media relations department announced Friday.
Groulx, 26, was recalled following the trade deadline earlier this month to serve as a fill-in down the middle after Scott Laughton was dealt to the Kings and captain Auston Matthews suffered a season-ending MCL injury. In his first NHL action in nearly two years, the 6’2″ middleman scored three goals and two assists for five points in nine games.
The Rouen, France, native is signed through next season after inking a two-year, $1.625MM contract last summer following a non-tender by the Rangers, with whom he spent the entire 2024-25 campaign in the minors. His efficient scoring performance, plus a +5 rating while averaging north of 15 minutes per game in heavy defensive usage, might very well make him a favorite to land a bottom-six center job in training camp next fall.
Groulx was a second-round pick by the Ducks in 2018. While he only scored a goal and five points in 65 games with them before they cut him loose with a non-tender in 2024, he’s demonstrated improved offensive acumen in the minors since getting a fresh start in the New York and Toronto organizations.
This season, Groulx is the Marlies’ scoring leader with a 27-23–50 line in 54 games. He “wanted to go down and help them and play,” head coach Craig Berube told reporters Friday (including Terry Koshan of the Toronto Sun), offering some insight into why he was flexed back down despite his strong performance in a middle-six role over the past few weeks.
With Matthews out, the Leafs no longer have an extra healthy forward on the active roster. If there’s an injury, they’ll need to make an emergency recall from the Marlies to ice 12 forwards.
Canadiens, Owen Protz Agree To Entry-Level Deal
The Canadiens announced they’ve agreed to terms with defense prospect Owen Protz on a three-year, entry-level contract. It’ll kick in next season. PuckPedia reports it carries a $1.004MM cap hit with the following breakdown:
| Year | NHL salary | Signing bonus | Potential performance bonuses | Minors salary |
| 2026-27 | $850K | $102K | $68K | $85K |
| 2027-28 | $900K | $105K | $45K | $85K |
| 2028-29 | $950K | $105K | none | $85K |
Protz, 20, was a fourth-round pick in 2024 out of the OHL’s Brantford Bulldogs, where he’s remained ever since to wrap up his junior career. Montreal would have lost his signing rights if they waited until after June 1 to get a deal done.
On a Montreal defense corps dominated by offensive-minded threats like Noah Dobson and Lane Hutson, Protz hopes to develop into a depth piece who can serve as a much more physically involved complement. The 6’2″, 207-lb lefty does have some two-way juice in his game that should help him avoid becoming a complete offensive liability if he reaches the top level, but he’s a brutal, intelligent checker first and foremost, who’s quite skilled at keeping play to the perimeter.
His lack of dynamacity means he doesn’t stick out too much in the Habs’ still-deep pool, but it’s worth noting they only have two non-roster left-shot options signed through next season – Adam Engstrom and Luke Mittelstadt. He should be able to jump into a bottom-pairing role with AHL Laval, get some reps on the penalty kill, and begin to work his way up the depth chart. He has until 2029 before the Habs must make their first decision on whether to tender him a qualifying offer and keep him around.
The Ottawa native wraps up his time in the OHL with a 13-61–74 scoring line in 198 games with 190 penalty minutes and a +60 rating. That includes 23 points and a career-best +45 mark in 60 games for the Bulldogs this year.
Avalanche Reassign Gavin Brindley
The Avalanche announced following Thursday night’s win over the Jets that they’ve reassigned right-winger Gavin Brindley to AHL Colorado.
Brindley, 21, has not yet played in the AHL this season but was sent to the Eagles for a few hours at the trade deadline to make him eligible for reassignment down the stretch. He had played in every game for the Avs since Jan. 3 before exiting the lineup for this week’s games against Pittsburgh and Winnipeg, falling victim to a roster crunch created by the returns of Logan O’Connor, Ross Colton, and Artturi Lehkonen from injuries.
The undersized but high-energy winger impressed early in a depth role in Colorado this season after being acquired from the Blue Jackets last summer in the deal that sent Charlie Coyle and Miles Wood to Columbus. An early second-round selection in 2023 (34th overall), Brindley has a 6-7–13 scoring line in 56 games but only has two points and a -6 rating over his last 25 outings, so he’s hit a tough stretch in the second half of the year.
Colorado saw enough out of Brindley to sign him to a cost-effective two-year, $1.75MM extension back in November. He still has another season of waiver-exempt status after this one, so, especially considering they structured the first year of that extension as a two-way deal, he may still see some AHL time in 2026-27 before ideally transitioning to a full-time role in a couple of years.
The Florida native was a star offensive producer at the University of Michigan but struggled as a first-year pro in the Columbus organization last season, limited to a 6-11–17 scoring line in 52 AHL games. Given how he’s fared in his NHL minutes this season, Brindley should be in line for an expanded role with the Eagles with a corresponding increase in production.
The Avs have carried a thin roster through much of the season, so the fact they only have 13 healthy forwards without Brindley on the roster isn’t anything new. His demotion is less about resolving a roster crunch and more about getting the still-developing winger some playing time.
Oilers Sign Tomas Cibulka To Entry-Level Deal
The Oilers announced Friday that they’ve signed undrafted free agent defenseman Tomas Cibulka to a two-year entry-level deal beginning next season. Per PuckPedia, the deal carries a $955K cap hit that breaks down to $930K in 2026-27 and $980K in 2027-28, $80K of which will be paid via signing bonus. His minor league salary each season is $85K.
Cibulka, 22 next week, makes the jump back across the Atlantic after spending the last two years in Czechia’s top division, Extraliga, with HC Motor Ceske Budejovice, his hometown team. Before that, he played through most of his junior career in Eastern Canada, suiting up for the Val-d’Or Foreurs and the Cape Breton Eagles of the QMJHL from 2021-24.
The lefty checks in at 6’0″ and 170 lbs. There were some defensive flaws in his game dating back to junior that haven’t really gone away, but Edmonton hopes his puck-moving ability is enough to help him challenge for a depth role in the NHL.
Over the past two seasons in Ceske Budejovice, he racked up a 13-29–42 scoring line in 90 games with a -10 rating. He was part of the Czechs’ bronze-medal-winning effort at the 2024 World Juniors, posting a pair of goals in seven games.
There’s no path toward a regular NHL role for Cibulka next season. Darnell Nurse, Mattias Ekholm, and Jake Walman are all signed for several more seasons and will make up the Oilers’ left side for now.
They have three non-roster lefties signed through next year – Damian Carfagna, Atro Leppanen, and Riley Stillman. All of them have put up good numbers in AHL Bakersfield this season, so for Cibulka to land regular playing time, it’s looking like he or someone else will need to shift to their offside.
Cibulka’s deal will make him a restricted free agent in 2028. The Oilers have now used up 31 of their 50 contract slots for next season.
Maple Leafs Sign Hayes Hundley To Entry-Level Deal
The Maple Leafs announced Friday that they’ve signed college free agent defenseman Hayes Hundley to a three-year, entry-level deal. Financial terms were not disclosed, but they did confirm the deal begins next season. He will finish out the current league year with AHL Toronto on a tryout.
Hundley, 21, turns pro after only one year in the NCAA with the University of St. Thomas. The 6’3″, 207-lb righty contributed a 6-6–12 scoring line and a +10 rating in 38 games for the Tommies, ranking fourth on the team’s blue line in scoring.
It’s a surprising development to see a previously unheralded, undrafted name go pro after only one year in the college circuit, but the Leafs were far from the only team to show interest in the shutdown rearguard, Steven Ellis of Daily Faceoff reports. He’s the third free agent signing the Leafs have made from the NCAA in this year’s cycle, joining Northeastern defenseman Vincent Borgesi and Union forward Brandon Buhr.
An Ohio native, Hundley played several years in the Blue Jackets’ youth program before jumping to Tier II juniors with the Johnstown Tomahawks of the NAHL in 2023-24, which would have been his post-draft season if he had been selected when he was initially eligible. He then moved up to high-level juniors with the USHL’s Fargo Force, again staying just one year before heading to St. Thomas. If Hundley plays for the Marlies down the stretch, that will mean he’s jumped up four development levels in less than three calendar years, a rapid ascension.
Hundley’s contract gives Toronto 32 deals on the books for next year, with 18 contract slots remaining. He’ll be a restricted free agent in 2029.
Blackhawks Sign Jiri Felcman To Entry-Level Deal
The Blackhawks announced Friday that they’ve signed center prospect Jiri Felcman to a three-year, entry-level deal that begins next season. The contract carries a cap hit of $996.7K and will make him a restricted free agent in 2029.
Per PuckPedia, the deal includes a European assignment clause through 2027-28 if he’s assigned to the ECHL, allowing Felcman to trigger a loan back to the SCL Tigers of the Swiss National League, where he’s spent the last three years. The full breakdown of the contract, which carries a $1.045MM qualifying offer upon expiry, is as follows:
| Year | NHL salary | Signing bonus | Minors salary |
| 2026-27 | $850K | $95K | $82.5K |
| 2027-28 | $900K | $95K | $82.5K |
| 2028-29 | $950K | $95K | $82.5K |
Felcman had already signed a tryout with AHL Rockford earlier in the week, but landing him on an NHL deal now ensures they retain his signing rights past their June 2027 expiration. The 6’4″ pivot, who turns 21 next month, was a third-round choice in 2023.
Since then, he’s been grinding away to make his mark professionally in Switzerland, where the Czech forward has spent all of his development despite still representing his home country internationally. He’s suited up for the Tigers in Langnau over the past three years, but didn’t really have a significant presence on the club until this season.
Felcman, who could top out as a third-line checking center, broke out for a 3-17–20 scoring line with a -4 rating in 52 games to lead junior-aged NL players in scoring. He’s an afterthought in a loaded Chicago prospect pool – few would even consider him in a top-20 ranking there – but did take enough steps forward this season to help the Hawks determine he’s at least worth the initial investment of an ELC and the contract slot for the next few years to see if he can continue climbing up the ladder.
Peter Chiarelli, Kevin Maxwell Departing Blues Front Office
Blues vice president of hockey operations Peter Chiarelli and pro scout Kevin Maxwell will not return to the club next season, Darren Dreger of TSN reports. Chiarelli’s departure comes as he’s progressed in the interview process to fill the Predators’ pending general manager vacancy, while Maxwell will be joining the Rangers in a yet-to-be-disclosed management role, Dreger adds.
It may not be the only front office turnover St. Louis will see in the coming weeks. This is Doug Armstrong’s last season in the GM role. The team announced way back in 2024 that following the end of the 2025-26 campaign, Armstrong would elevate to president of hockey operations, while Alexander Steen, who played 765 games as a Blue and has been a special assistant to Armstrong over the past two years, would step into the GM’s chair.
It’s not a complete overhaul – Armstrong will still hold a fairly powerful role – but one that will nonetheless lead to a bit of a shakeup. Chiarelli, 61, had been part of the Blues’ front office for the past seven years. He first joined Armstrong as a senior advisor following their Stanley Cup win in 2019 and was promoted to his current VP role two years later.
As one of the league’s more experienced executives, it’s no surprise the Predators have reached out to him about succeeding Barry Trotz. It would be Chiarelli’s third go-around as a GM, first heading up the Bruins from 2006-15 (and winning a Stanley Cup in the process) before managing the Oilers from 2015-19.
The Predators have cast a wide net in their search, opening themselves up to experience-heavy candidates like Chiarelli while also considering up-and-comers. They’ve previously been linked to former Habs GM and current Sabres AGM Marc Bergevin as well as Panthers AGM Brett Peterson. Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reported today that they’ve also interviewed Oilers AGM Bill Scott.
Meanwhile, Maxwell has been with the Blues since 2022. In addition to his scouting duties, he’s also served as the GM for their AHL affiliate, the Springfield Thunderbirds, a role normally reserved for an AGM. St. Louis will need to find a replacement there.
The 65-year-old Maxwell has been in scouting roles as far back as the late 1980’s with the Flyers, and has also logged stints with the Whalers, Islanders, and Stars. He then joined the Rangers, where he’s set to return now, as a pro scout in 2008 and was promoted to their director of pro scouting in 2011. He held that role until his departure from the organization to join the Blues in 2022.
That the Blues are willing to part ways with Maxwell is unsurprising. Springfield is on track to miss the playoffs for the second time in four seasons under Maxwell – a hard feat in a league where 23 of 32 teams qualify. The year before he took over, Springfield had advanced all the way to the Calder Cup Final.
Islanders’ Tony DeAngelo Out One To Two Weeks
The Islanders won’t have their #2 right-side defender for the next three to five games. The team announced at puck drop of last night’s 2-1 win over the Stars that Tony DeAngelo will miss one to two weeks with a lower-body injury.
DeAngelo was unable to go last night, his first time sitting out a game this season. He left Tuesday night’s game against the Blackhawks midway through the first period after appearing to strain something while rushing back to defend a 2-on-0.
Luckily, it’s not worse as the Isles try to emerge victorious in the fierce battle for playoff spots in the Eastern Conference. After joining the team as a stopgap option from the Kontinental Hockey League midway through last season amid a rash of injuries, DeAngelo played well enough to earn a one-year, $1.75MM to return to Long Island at the beginning of free agency.
DeAngelo has rewarded the Isles’ faith by re-establishing himself as an everyday NHL option, ranking sixth on the team with a 5-28–33 scoring line through 72 contests. His -3 rating and 45.2 xGF% at 5-on-5 (per Natural Stat Trick) indicate he remains the imperfect defensive threat he’s been throughout all of his 10-year NHL career, but he’s been valuable as their second-unit power play quarterback behind standout rookie Matthew Schaefer and has found good chemistry with shutdown partner Adam Pelech at even strength.
A pending unrestricted free agent again, the Islanders will likely make a push to retain the 30-year-old. Depth option Adam Boqvist is a non-tender candidate, and with no right-shot options in the system set to challenge for an NHL job, they’d prefer to have him back to fill out that side with Ryan Pulock and Scott Mayfield unless they feel a meaningful upgrade is both available and affordable in free agency.
While Pulock was able to return to action last night after missing two games with a lower-body injury, DeAngelo’s absence now means that Isaiah George will stay on the NHL roster as their #7 option after being jockeyed between New York and AHL Bridgeport a couple of times this week.
Sidney Crosby Leaves Game With Apparent Lower-Body Injury
Penguins captain Sidney Crosby left Thursday’s game against the Senators early in the second period and was subsequently ruled out for the remainder of the contest, per a team announcement.
Crosby went down the tunnel and didn’t return after taking the opening shift of the period. He previously left the bench late in the first period, favoring his left leg following a seemingly innocuous collision with Ottawa forward Nick Cousins (video via Gino Hard on X).
If there’s a saving grace, that’s not the same knee Crosby sustained a Grade 2 MCL sprain in last month when he fell awkwardly on a hit from Czechia’s Radko Gudas while representing Canada at the Olympics. That cost the three-time Stanley Cup champion 11 games coming out of the Olympic break, returning to the lineup just over a week ago.
In Crosby’s first four games back in the lineup, he was immediately back to being his old self offensively. He had at least one point in each outing, totaling a goal and four assists with an uncharacteristic -4 rating. He had a +1 rating and one shot on goal in 6:39 of ice time tonight before bowing out of the contest.
Pittsburgh’s injury situation, particularly among its forwards, has been tenuous of late. Evgeni Malkin is dealing with an upper-body injury and is missing his second consecutive game tonight. Anthony Mantha missed Wednesday’s practice with a lower-body injury but was healthy enough to dress tonight. Blake Lizotte is likely done for the regular season with an upper-body issue, but should be an option for the first round of the playoffs.
That’s if the Penguins can weather the storm – both from inside and out – and hold onto a playoff berth. The Blue Jackets’ recent surge has unseated the Pens from the second-place spot they’ve held in the Metropolitan Division for most of the season. They’re still a relatively safe bet to make it at 74.2%, but have next to no cushion. At the time of writing, they’ve been leapfrogged by the Islanders, who defeated the Stars in regulation tonight, for third in the division and have slipped to the second wild-card slot.