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Maple Leafs Notes: Bunting, Tavares, Muzzin, Liljegren

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In talking to TSN’s Mark Masters, Toronto Maple Leafs head coach Sheldon Keefe gave several updates on his team, which has several players banged-up. One of those players is rookie Michael Bunting. The breakout forward suffered an undisclosed injury in last night’s game, and while he did take a puck to the face, the belief is that the injury is in fact to Bunting’s leg. According to Keefe last night, he expected Bunting to miss some time, but did not disclose how much. Today, Keefe reiterated that Bunting would certainly miss some time, but did add that he woke up feeling a lot better than expected (link). Still, the team will wait until they get back to Toronto after their road trip to further evaluate Bunting and get a more clear picture of how much time he will miss.

Bunting’s absence, especially at this juncture, is of concern for Toronto. The team has several formidable offensive weapons, but Bunting’s breakout season, which has seen him score 23 goals along with 40 assists in 79 games has helped to take some focus off of Toronto’s other weapons. Tonight’s game at the Washington Capitals will be the first Bunting has missed this season.

  • John Tavares, the Maple Leafs’ captain, will also miss tonight’s game, his second of the season and first since November (link). Tavares’ absence should be of no concern to Maple Leafs fans, as Keefe assured that this was merely a case of load management, acknowledging that despite being injured, Matthews’ absence from the lineup provided him with a break heading into the playoffs, something Tavares has not had.
  • Defenseman Jake Muzzin will also be out of the lineup tonight, missing his sixth straight game (link). The exact nature of Muzzin’s injury is not clear, however it is not believed to be connected to the concussion that saw him miss significant time in February and March. Keefe did not provide any timeline for Muzzin on a return or any further absence. Muzzin has played in just 45 of the Maple Leafs’ 79 games this season, but getting him back in the lineup would be a key addition heading into the playoffs.
  • Also missing tonight’s game is defenseman Timothy Liljegren, though his injury is considered a minor one (link). Keefe did not elaborate on the nature of Liljegren’s injury, or mention any timetable, however it does appear that the recently recalled Carl Dahlstrom will draw into the lineup in his place. The 27-year-old Dahlstrom has played in just two games at the NHL level this season for the Maple Leafs, recording an assist. In 47 games at the AHL level with the Toronto Marlies, Dahlstrom has 14 points, all assists.

Looking Ahead To Andrew Copp’s Free Agency

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The New York Rangers were active players at this year’s trade deadline, picking up several pieces, most notable among them, forward Andrew Copp, who the Rangers acquired from the Winnipeg Jets. The 27-year-old Copp is enjoying a fantastic breakout season, on the cusp of hitting unrestricted free agency this July, and will obviously look to capitalize on his excellent timing.

Copp has made work of continuously getting better throughout his career, culminating in what was a, to-date, career-best 39 points in 55 games in the shortened 56-game 2020-21 season. This season, Copp was on nearly the same trajectory, with 35 points in 56 games prior to the trade. However, since being traded to the Rangers, Copp has reached another level, putting up 18 points in 15 games, eight of those points from goals, and capped off by a hat-trick against the New York Islanders this past Thursday.

At 28 years of age on July 13th, the first day of NHL free agency, Copp will still be in the prime of his career, and any contract within range of expectation should see him still as an effective player through its entirety. Some factors to consider, when looking at what the gritty forward can sign for would be his production relative to offense around the NHL (i.e., increased offense league-wide), as well as his general role as a middle-six grinder who can provide offense and how he might age in that role.

Financially, Copp is making $3.64MM this season, the result of an agreement ahead of, and in lieu of, an arbitration hearing. One would certainly expect that he will command a fairly significant raise over that figure. After giving up significant assets to acquire Copp, and with his performance thus far, the Rangers would be expected to take a run at re-signing Copp, but with significant raises for Mika Zibanejad and Adam Fox taking effect next season, the expiration of Kaapo Kakko’s ELC, and Ryan Strome, Frank Vatrano, Tyler Motte, and Justin Braun all hitting unrestricted free agency too, the organization will need to be careful and will have to make some tough decisions.

Now, we turn to a few comparable players with contracts in the vicinity of what Copp could push for in free agency this summer. These include a very similar player in a very similar situation, Jean-Gabriel Pageau of the New York Islanders, and a bit of a “high-hopes” contract on a player who is arguably a slightly better version of Copp: T.J. Oshie of the Washington Capitals.

T.J. Oshie: Eight-Years, $46MM, $5.75MM AAV

As mentioned, the Oshie contract is most likely going to be a real reach for Copp, however, a contract similar to this, at least in terms of AAV, may not be too far-fetched. This season, Copp has 53 points in 71 games following up a strong 39 in 55 last season. Due to COVID shortening Copp’s 2019-20 and 2020-21, and uncertainty surrounding a lower-body injury that is currently sidelining him, we’ll compare the players on a point-per-game basis.

This season, Copp’s production works out to 0.75 points-per-game, a marginal improvement over his 0.71 mark last year. Oshie signed his contract with Washington after the 2016-17 season, which saw him coming off a strong 56 points in 68 games, preceded by 51 points in 80 games in 2015-16. For a fair comparison, Oshie’s 2015-16 came in at 0.64 points-per-game, improving to 0.82 points-per-game the next season going into free agency.

Besides a higher jump in point-per-game going into free agency, what Oshie had that Copp does not, is a similar track record. Before the 2015-16 season, Oshie had already hit 54, 55, and 60 points in three of the previous four seasons, as well as 20 points in 30 games in 2012-13. In the three seasons prior to 2020-21, Copp averaged just 26.3 points. Though track record sets Oshie ahead of Copp, this contract is nearly five years old, and while the NHL is currently in a flat-cap state, the value of players has risen, meaning that Copp could push the $5.75MM AAV Oshie received. Eight years could be where Copp struggles more, considering the difference in the two players’ styles, one could argue that Oshie would be expected to age better as a smooth-skating, top-six, two-way point-producer over Copp’s middle-six grinder with offensive upside.

It should be noted also, that teams and players could look to trade term in exchange for AAV, much the same as the Rangers did when they signed Barclay Goodrow to a six-year, $21.85MM contract or when the Islanders signed Casey Cizikas to a six-year, $15MM contract, both coming just this past offseason.

Jean-Gabriel Pageau: Six-Years, $30MM, $5MM AAV

There may not be a better comparable player for Copp than Pageau. Both are similar players, both enjoyed breakout seasons heading into free agency, and both were dealt for a high price at the trade deadline to be impact players on teams that had their eyes set on a Stanley Cup. Pageau was dealt by the Ottawa Senators to the New York Islanders at the trade deadline in February of 2020, but unlike Copp, he would immediately ink an extension with his new club.

Like Copp, Pageau had truly broken out ahead of his new contract, with 24 goals and 16 assists in 60 games prior to signing, an average of 0.67 points per game. Pageau was injured the season prior, posting 12 points in 39 games, just a 0.31 points-per-game average, far short of his 2019-20 and his career best 43 points in 2015-16.

You wouldn’t be blamed for thinking Pageau has been better than Copp over their careers. While Copp has played in the postseason, Pageau has had a flair for the dramatic in a lengthy postseason career. But, it appears, Copp might be in a better position than Pageau was when he signed (keep in mind, two of Pageau’s deep postseason runs had not yet happened at that point). That said, if Copp is at least comparable and in the same position Pageau is heading towards his own contract, if not better, then six-years at $5MM per season would not only be attainable for Copp, but perhaps a jumping off point in negotiations.

Of course, it remains to be seen what exactly Copp will be able to sign for when his contract expires this summer, and right now his and his team’s focus is to get him healthy in time for the playoffs, and to chase a Stanley Cup. But, as it seems, Copp might look to sign somewhere between Pageau and Oshie–an excellent payday for a player well-regarded for his grit, but far from a superstar.

Buffalo Sabres Recall Aaron Dell

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The Buffalo Sabres announced Saturday morning that they have recalled goaltender Aaron Dell from the Rochester Americans of the AHL ahead of their game this afternoon at home against the New York Islanders. According to Lance Lysowski of The Buffalo News, goaltender Craig Anderson had left practice early on Friday and is listed as day-to-day, necessitating the move for Buffalo.

The Sabres had been utilizing a tandem of Anderson and Dustin Tokarski in net, which Dell will now join. Some might wonder why Buffalo would choose to recall the veteran Dell over Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, however it is worth noting that Luukkonen started in net for Rochester last night, his fifth straight start for the club. Even if Dell does not play today (or if Luukkonen had not played today), it might make sense to give the younger goaltender a rest as opposed to asking him to travel from Utica, where Rochester played last night, back to Rochester, then to Buffalo ahead of a 12:30 pm puck drop.

For his part, Dell has made a career as a serviceable backup in net. This season, he has split time between Buffalo and Rochester. In 10 games with Buffalo, Dell has a 4.03 GAA and .893 save-percentage, but a 3.02 GAA and .907 save-percentage in the AHL.

Torey Krug Out With Upper-Body Injury

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The St. Louis Blues announced that defenseman Torey Krug will miss tonight’s game with an upper-body injury. Krug played in the Blues’ last game on Tuesday against the Boston Bruins, playing 17:53 in an overtime loss. It’s unclear how much time Krug will miss after tonight, if any, but for now the Blues will be without the veteran defenseman as they take on the Sharks in San Jose.

This is not Krug’s first battle with injury this season, as he has missed 15 games thus far. While the Blues have clinched a playoff spot, they are currently battling with the Minnesota Wild for second place in the Central Division, essentially battling for home-ice advantage in a first round series. Going without Krug, a reliable defender who has 40 points in 62 games this season, will not do St. Louis any favors in their battle in the standings, but it’s certainly better to have him out now rather than come playoffs.

Replacing him in the lineup tonight is defenseman Calle Rosen. The 28-year-old Rosen has played in just 14 games at the NHL level this year, however he’s been effective when he’s in the lineup, tallying two goals and five assists from the blueline. Rosen has played more regularly for the Springfield Thunderbirds of the AHL this season though, having four goals and 24 assists in 40 games at that level.

Brayden Point Day-To-Day With A Lower Body Injury

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The Tampa Bay Lightning will be without one of their stars tonight as they take on the Toronto Maple Leafs at home, missing forward Brayden Point. Point is day-to-day with a lower-body injury, says Mari Faiello of the Tampa Bay Times (link). According to The Athletic’s Joe Smith, Point had had a maintenance day yesterday (link), however seeing Point out with injury is still somewhat surprising news.

This isn’t the first game Point has missed due to injury this year, having already missed 14 previously. While the Lightning have clinched a playoff berth, their position still remains to be decided. Sitting at 100 points through 77 games, they are just one point ahead of the Boston Bruins and three ahead of the Pittsburgh Penguins, both whom have also played 77 games and hold the first and second Wild Card positions in the Eastern Conference respectively. Even one game without Point can have significant implications for the Lightning, especially against a difficult opponent in the Maple Leafs.

On the bright side, Point’s injury does not appear to be serious, with the forward considered day-to-day. Coming on the heels of a maintenance day, his absence could be merely cautionary with the playoffs just around the corner. In 62 games this season, Point has 27 goals and 28 assists, yet another stellar season for the 26-year-old.

New York Islanders Place J.G. Pageau, Two Coaches In COVID Protocol; Anthony Beauvillier Day-To-Day

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According to the Athletic’s Kevin Kurz, the New York Islanders will be short a few coaches and players tonight as they take on the New York Rangers at home (Link to Tweet). First and foremost, the team has placed forward Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Associate Coach Lane Lambert, and Assistant Coach Jim Hiller in COVID protocol. Though the team is only short one player for tonight, Lambert and Hiller represent half of the team’s coaching staff behind the bench, putting extra weight on the shoulders of Head Coach Barry Trotz. Seeing COVID-related absences surely gives the Islanders unpleasant flashbacks to November, when the team was without a large portion of its roster due to COVID.

Also missing from the Islanders lineup, unrelated to COVID protocol, is forward Anthony Beauvillier, who is day-to-day with an upper-body injury. It’s unclear when exactly Beauvillier’s injury occurred, as he logged 18:24 of ice-time against the Florida Panthers on Tuesday, the Islanders’ last game. The team next plays Saturday afternoon on the road against the Buffalo Sabres.

In a corresponding move, the Islanders have recalled forward Otto Koivula on an emergency basis. Koivula has seen limited NHL time this year, with only five games played, the last on March 10th. In those five games, Koivula has just one assist, but the 23-year-old does have 12 goals and 35 assists in 56 games with the Bridgeport Islanders of the AHL this season. The forward is in the lineup tonight.

These transactions seemingly draw to a close a busy day of moves on the Island, with the team having placed defenseman Grant Hutton on waivers (link) and signing one of their top prospects William Dufour earlier in the day (link). For now, the Islanders will still have to focus on their game against the Rangers despite the missing pieces, but will be able to give Koivula another look in the NHL.

Snapshots: Forsberg, NHLPA, PWHPA

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This evening on Hockey Night in Canada’s 32 Thoughts segment, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman discussed an update on Filip Forsberg’s contract extension talks, noting that Forsberg’s agent, J.P. Barry and Nashville Predators’ GM David Poille recently met face-to-face for the first time in a while. Friedman says that while it is difficult to gauge any progress on the talks, as nothing was made public from these discussions, the development is significant and represents the two sides continuing to talk.

Forsberg is an impending UFA, who the Predators chose not to trade at this year’s trade deadline, despite not having an extension in place with the forward. Part of the reason to hang onto Forsberg would be for Nashville to use him themselves in another playoff run, but also perhaps their confidence that they could get a deal done with Forsberg before he hits free agency. One advantage Nashville will have over other teams, besides an extended negotiating period and familiarity, is the ability to give Forsberg an eight-year contract as opposed to seven, something he will almost assuredly get.

  • Also from Friedman is that a succession plan for NHLPA Director Donald Fehr could be in place by this summer, though Friedman adds he is not entirely sure what that will look like. Fehr has served in this role since 2010, after a storied career with the MLBPA, however his position has come under fire recently, especially with the release of the results of an independent investigation into the NHLPA and Fehr’s handling of the accusations against the Chicago Blackhawks and Brad Aldrich. The 73-year-old Fehr had already been rumored to be nearing retirement, so to see a succession plan being rumored now is not surprising, even with the investigation news.
  • With the PWHPA planning to go their own way in forming a league without the PHF, Sportsnet’s Jeff Marek shares some details of what the new league will look like. First and foremost, Marek says that the league will have a new name, though what that will be is not yet known. The league’s first season will take place from January through April of 2023 and consists of 32 games per team, including six teams spread between the US and Canada. Each team is expected to have 23 players, with the minimum salary being $35K and the average salary being $55K, as well as benefits for all players. Without too many more pertinent details, it’s hard to forecast what this league and season will truly look like and what fans can expect, however having these basic plans in place is a promising step forward after talks between the PWHPA and PHF have not progressed to anything of note thus far.

Latest On 2023 World Junior Championships

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Sportsnet’s Jeff Marek reported tonight that Canada had agreed to host the 2023 World Junior Championship, with five potential bids for hosting in consideration. Marek lists pairings of Saskatoon and Regina, London and Kitchener, Ottawa (split between the OHL’s Ottawa 67’s and the NHL’s Ottawa Senators), Quebec City and Trois Rivieres, and Halifax and Moncton.

Marek adds that while there are several competitive bids for the rights to host, he says that Canada is not necessarily concerned with the top bid financially, but is more interested in a “full fan experience” after the COVID-19 pandemic impacted this year’s tournament. He adds that packed arenas and an ability to cultivate good television would be among the list of priorities.

The leading candidate, Marek mentions, would be Halifax and Moncton. Though Canada has hosted the tournament numerous times in recent history, it has not been held this far east since Halifax and Sydney hosted in 2003. As mentioned, with the COVID-19 pandemic taking away some of the experience that the World Juniors brings both to those attending in person and watching at home, seeing Canada prioritize the overall experience for all is surely exciting for fans, especially considering the 2022 tournament is to be held in Edmonton an Red Deer, just four months ahead of the 2023 tournament.

Central Notes: Leddy, Wild, Meyers

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There was good news and bad news today for the St. Louis Blues. The good news was the team clinched a playoff spot with a 6-5 overtime win over the Minnesota Wild. The bad news was defenseman Nick Leddy taking a high stick near his eye, causing him to leave the game. The Athletic’s Jeremy Rutherford spoke to Blues’ Head Coach Craig Berube, who said that the incident had blurred Leddy’s vision and he is not expected to play tomorrow against the Nashville Predators.

With the Blues clinching today, the need to have Leddy in the lineup is not so pressing, however the team paid a hefty price to acquire the defenseman, who is rich with playoff experience, to use down the stretch and in the playoffs. Berube did not appear to be overly concerned about this injury, however any time an injury involving a player’s vision comes into question, it can be scary, not only for their playing career, but their life away from the rink too.

  • The Athletic’s Michael Russo provided several updates on the Minnesota Wild, per Head Coach Dean Evason. Most notably, Tyson Jost, who took a big hit from Pavel Buchnevich earlier today, will not play tomorrow against the San Jose Sharks for precautionary reasons. Evason also notes that defenseman Jon Merrill is still out of the lineup going forward, having not played since March 31st with an upper-body injury. In more positive news for the Wild, Evason says that forward Jordan Greenway has started skating and star defenseman Mathew Dumba is getting closer to return as well.
  • The Colorado Avalanche announced that forward Ben Meyers will make his NHL debut tonight as the Avalanche take on the Carolina Hurricanes at home. Colorado signed the undrafted college free agent earlier this week after his season at the University of Minnesota had come to an end at the hands of Minnesota State. A finalist for the Hobey Baker Award, Meyers figures to provide solid scoring depth for a deep, talented Avalanche team as they head into the playoffs. Avalanche Head Coach Jared Bednar said he plans to have Meyers center Andrew Cogliano and Logan O’Connor in tonight’s game.

Ottawa Senators Place Colin White In COVID-19 Protocol

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The Ottawa Senators announced that forward Colin White was placed in the NHL’s COVID-19 protocol ahead of tonight’s game at home against the Toronto Maple Leafs. Defenseman Victor Mete will take his place in the lineup for tonight. It’s not immediately clear whether White tested positive or if he is in protocol for other related reasons.

The NHL has seen a vastly decreased number of players in COVID protocol in the past couple of months due to several factors, however White’s absence is a reminder that these protocols are still in place and can still creep up on teams when they don’t necessarily expect it. As of right now, White appears to be the only player affected for Ottawa, with no further announcements on other players or staff thus far.

White has been somewhat of a disappointment this year for Ottawa, with just 10 points in 24 games. The forward spent the majority of the season on IR, making his season debut on February 26th. Though his numbers are not too far off from his career averages, White signed a lucrative six-year, $28.5MM contract, carrying an AAV of $4.75MM, prior to the 2019-20 season. Despite the contract, White is still waiting for the true breakout season that Ottawa has seen from the likes of Joshua Norris, Brady Tkachuk, and Drake Batherson.

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