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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Minnesota Wild

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the most important tasks for a front office.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t often see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2024-25 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of PuckPedia.  We begin with a look at the Central Division; next up is Minnesota.

Minnesota Wild

Current Cap Hit: $87,243,590 (under the $88MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Brock Faber (one year left on ELC at $925K, has signed extension)
F Marat Khusnutdinov (one year, $925K)
F Liam Ohgren (three years, $886.6K)
F Marco Rossi (one year, $863.3K)

Potential Bonuses
Faber: $250K
Khusnutdinov: $850K
Ohgren: $475K
Rossi: $850K
Total: $2.425MM

Khusnutdinov spent last season in the KHL but with his team there missing the playoffs, he was able to get into 16 games down the stretch with the Wild.  He didn’t do a lot with somewhat limited minutes but that’s not entirely surprising for someone making their debut late in the season.  A top-six role seems unlikely which makes a bridge deal the most probable outcome, one that’s a bit too early to handicap while hitting his bonuses seems unlikely.  Ohgren, meanwhile, also got his feet wet with Minnesota late in the year and held his own.  In a perfect world, he finds his way onto the roster, giving the Wild some secondary scoring depth.  However, with their cap situation, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him start at AHL Iowa to allow them to bank some early-season cap space but he should be up at some point.  It doesn’t seem likely that he’ll hit his bonuses unless he’s a full-timer and makes an impact on the scoresheet.

Rossi made the jump to the NHL full-time last season and turned in a solid rookie campaign with 21 goals and 19 assists although that didn’t stop him from being in trade speculation earlier this offseason.  He reached two of his ‘A’ bonuses last season (ATOI and goals) and assuming he has a similar role this year, he has a good chance at reaching those again, counting at $212.5K apiece.  Considering the perception of his availability, it stands to reason that Minnesota’s preference is probably going to be a bridge deal.  If Rossi has another season like 2023-24, that contract should surpass $3MM per year on a two-year pact while a long-term agreement would likely push past $5MM per season.

Faber is worth a quick mention here due to the bonuses as they weren’t in the first or second year of his deal.  If he has anywhere near a repeat performance from a year ago, it’s going to be safe to pencil those into Minnesota’s cap planning.

Jesper Wallstedt (one year, $925K plus $425K in bonuses) isn’t mentioned above as while he’s expected to see some action between the pipes, it’s unlikely they’ll be able to carry him on the roster on a full-time basis.  That means the bonuses won’t be hit and with what’s likely to be a limited NHL workload, his next deal likely maxes out at what San Jose gave Yaroslav Askarov (two years, $2MM per season); it wouldn’t be shocking if it came in well below that either.

Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level

D Declan Chisholm ($1MM, UFA)
G Marc-Andre Fleury ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Marcus Johansson ($2MM, UFA)
F Reese Johnson ($775K, RFA)
F Jakub Lauko ($787.5K, RFA)
D Jonathon Merrill ($1.2MM, UFA)

Johansson didn’t light it up like he did after being acquired at the trade deadline the year before although 30 points for this price point isn’t bad value.  However, he’s someone who hasn’t had a lot of success on the open market in recent deals before this one so it wouldn’t be surprising to see his next contract land around this one.  Lauko was acquired from Boston at the draft and was brought in to add some grit on the fourth line.  With a rather limited overall track record (just 83 career NHL games), his next deal shouldn’t cost much more than $1MM barring an offensive outburst in 2024-25.  Johnson was signed to a two-way deal after being non-tendered by Chicago to avoid arbitration.  He’ll likely see action on the fourth line if he makes the team but with over 140 NHL games, he’s a potential non-tender candidate again as well.

Merrill saw his stock drop a bit last season, averaging less than 13 minutes a night when he was in the lineup.  A serviceable depth defender, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Wild tried to run him through waivers to open up a bit of flexibility; all but $50K of the contract would come off the books when he’s in the minors.  Looking ahead, he’ll have a hard time pushing past the $1MM mark unless he can re-establish himself closer to the 15-plus minute mark.  Chisholm, meanwhile, fared well after being claimed midseason from Winnipeg but a limited track record hurt his market value this summer.  If he can stay as a full-time option on the third pairing, doubling his price tag could be doable.

Many expected Fleury to retire but he opted to come back for one final season.  He’s coming off a down year but if he can bounce back a bit, Minnesota should get decent value with this price tag being below the top backup options.

Signed Through 2025-26

D Zach Bogosian ($1.25MM, UFA)
G Filip Gustavsson ($3.75MM, UFA)
F Kirill Kaprizov ($9MM, UFA)
F Mats Zuccarello ($4.125MM, UFA)

Kaprizov has emerged as one of the top wingers in the NHL and he will be signing this deal at the age of 29, meaning he will still have some prime years left when the time comes to sign his next contract.  As a result, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him surpass Artemi Panarin’s $11.643MM AAV; while his point totals haven’t been as high, the increase in the salary cap between the two contracts should make the difference.  Zuccarello signed this extension early and has put up at least 63 points the last three seasons.  If that holds up, the Wild will do quite well here.  Even if the output starts to drop, it should hold up relatively well.  He’ll be entering his age-39 year on his next contract which means it’s far from a guarantee that there will be a next contract.

Bogosian did well in a limited role after being acquired from Tampa Bay.  As long as he stays around that fifth slot in terms of usage, they’ll do relatively well with this contract.

Gustavsson wasn’t expected to necessarily repeat his breakout numbers from 2022-23 but he didn’t exactly come close to them either.  He dropped 32 points on his save percentage while his goals-against average went up by nearly a full goal per game.  The end result was a stat line that was below average, even for a second-stringer.  It’s safe to say they’ll be counting on some sort of rebound.

Signed Through 2026-27

F Ryan Hartman ($4MM, UFA)
D Jared Spurgeon ($7.875MM, UFA)

Hartman didn’t get back to his output from 2021-22 but he still reached the 20-goal mark.  As long as he can stay there and play down the middle, this contract should age well.

Spurgeon, meanwhile, is coming off an injury-plagued year.  When healthy, he’s a top-pairing player but whether he can still be one for the final three seasons of this contract remains to be seen as he’ll turn 35 in late November.  It’s possible as a result that this one could become an issue for Minnesota down the road.

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Snapshots: Kane, Ducks, Seider, Malone

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For the past several months, there has been plenty of speculation about the availability of Oilers winger Evander Kane (or lack thereof).  Even following a report last month that he would be undergoing surgery, there is still some uncertainty about how long he might be out for.  It appears that we should soon have some clarity on that front as GM Stan Bowman indicated on a recent Oilers Now segment (audio link) that they’re hoping to have an update on Kane in the next seven to ten days.  Kane played through a sports hernia injury for much of last season and the playoffs but still managed to put up 24 goals and 20 assists in 77 regular season appearances.  Edmonton’s roster movement this summer has positioned themselves to operate without necessarily needing LTIR so even if Kane will be out long-term, they may not choose to put him there when the season starts.

Elsewhere around the hockey world:

  • The Ducks announced (Twitter link) that third-overall pick Beckett Sennecke suffered a fractured foot during offseason training that will keep him out for six to eight weeks. Meanwhile, the team also revealed that goaltender Tomas Suchanek had successful surgery to repair a ruptured ACL and will miss six to eight months.  Sennecke was a late-riser heading into the draft with his selection coming as a surprise to many.  The injury will derail any outside chance he had at making the team but he should be good to go by the time the World Juniors come around.  Suchanek, meanwhile, posted a 2.92 GAA and a .910 SV% in 29 games with AHL San Diego last season and was in position to likely be Anaheim’s third-string option this year.  This injury likely led to today’s earlier signing of Oscar Dansk to a one-year deal.
  • Earlier today, The Fourth Period’s David Pagnotta relayed that the Red Wings were making progress on a long-term contract for RFA winger Lucas Raymond. Later in the day, he added (Twitter link) that Detroit and RFA Moritz Seider are also working away at a long-term pact.  The 23-year-old has been a key cog on the back end for the last three seasons, recording at least 42 points while logging over 22 minutes a night in each of them.  Detroit has over $17MM in cap room, per PuckPedia, which should be enough to get both key youngsters signed to long-term agreements.
  • Back in April, it was reported that veteran winger Brad Malone would be calling it a career. It was made official today with Malone announcing it on his Twitter page.  Malone played in 217 career NHL games between Colorado, Carolina, and Edmonton, while also seeing time in a dozen AHL campaigns, spanning 552 contests.  His days in hockey aren’t over, however, as OHL Oshawa announced that they’ve hired Malone as their Player Development Coach.

Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag

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With training camps on the horizon, we’re likely to see an uptick in transaction activity over the next couple of weeks as teams look to finalize their rosters.  With that in mind, it’s a good time to open up the mailbag.

Our last mailbag was done in two segments.  The first looked at what options the Stars could have to add to their roster and how Thomas Harley affects it, Jeremy Swayman’s contract situation, the status of the Blues’ defense, and more.  Meanwhile, the second examined some potential coaching and GM candidates, the quiet summer in Anaheim, and assessing Rob Blake’s offseason, among other topics.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter/X or by leaving a comment down below.  The mailbag will run on the weekend.

Canucks Hoping To Avoid Using LTIR

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One of the challenges that Vancouver had last season was the inability to bank day-to-day cap space with the team needing to use LTIR.  While defenseman Tucker Poolman is eligible to go back on there in 2024-25, president of hockey operations Jim Rutherford recently told reporters including Postmedia’s Patrick Johnston that their goal is to open up the season without needing to use LTIR.

Poolman has spent the majority of his three-year tenure with the Canucks on LTIR, playing only 33 games over that span; all but three of those came back in 2021-22.  He has been dealing with migraines throughout his time with Vancouver and isn’t expected to play at all this season.  In theory, that could allow the team to spend past the cap by up to his $2.5MM cap charge.

However, if they did so, their remaining cap space would be limited to the portion of LTIR space that they’re not spending at the time with no benefit of the value of that space going up as the season goes along.  In other words, a team with $1MM in LTIR at the start of the season could only add a player making $1MM then or at the trade deadline.  That was a limiting factor in their efforts to upgrade at the deadline last season.

While it’s understandable that they’d want to stay below the $88MM mark in spending and not need LTIR, accomplishing that goal could be a bit tricky.  Per PuckPedia, the team projects to have less than $191K to start the season, an amount that wouldn’t be worth anything of consequence at the trade deadline in March.  They’d have to go into LTIR as soon as an injury recall was needed.

Accordingly, if their goal is to bank enough flexibility to have more options later on, the Canucks will need to trim from their roster.  They could opt to carry a roster with fewer than the maximum of 23 players or attempt to make a cost-cutting trade.  One option on that front would be to try to find a taker for Poolman’s contract although with the contract believed to be uninsured and not a lot of teams looking to take on money, the incentive to get a team to take it on would be pricey.

Regardless of what route they go, if the Canucks want to stay out of LTIR, they probably have some work to do in the coming weeks to achieve that objective for any prolonged amount of time.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Dallas Stars

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the most important tasks for a front office.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t often see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2024-25 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of PuckPedia.  We begin with a look at the Central Division; next up is Dallas.

Dallas Stars

Current Cap Hit: $81,756,241 (under the $88MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Mavrik Bourque (one year, $894K)
F Wyatt Johnston (one year, $894K)
F Logan Stankoven (two years, $814K)

Potential Bonuses
Johnston: $318.75K
Stankoven: $82.5K
Total: $401.25K

It’s fair to say that Johnston has provided significant value on his contract so far.  After putting up 24 goals and 41 points in his rookie season, those numbers jumped to 32 and 65 respectively last year while also tying for the team lead in playoff scoring.  This is the type of player that the Stars will want to lock up on a long-term agreement.  However, that deal is going to be quite pricey.  At this point, if Johnston has even a similar performance this coming season let alone a more productive effort, he could be looking for $8MM or more on that second contract.  If their cap situation ultimately dictates a short-term second deal, it’s likely to come in around the $6MM range.

Stankoven was one of the top scorers in the minors last season before being recalled and was productive in a middle-six role.  Assuming he locks down a full-time spot this year, he could make a case for a longer-term second contract, one that is a bit too early to project at this point.  Bourque eventually took over as the top scorer at the AHL level with Stankoven’s departure and only got into one regular season game with Dallas.  That should change this season but unless he has a big year offensively, he’s someone who will likely wind up with a bridge deal for his second contract.

Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level

F Jamie Benn ($9.5MM, UFA)
F Colin Blackwell ($775K, UFA)
F Evgenii Dadonov ($2.25MM, UFA)
F Matt Duchene ($3MM, UFA)
D Esa Lindell ($5.8MM, UFA)
D Nils Lundkvist ($1.25MM, RFA)
G Jake Oettinger ($4MM, RFA)
D Brendan Smith ($1MM, UFA)
F Sam Steel ($1.2MM, UFA)

When Benn signed this contract, he was among the top-scoring wingers in the NHL.  While he hasn’t been able to get to that level of production (high-80s in points) since then, he has rebounded nicely over the last couple of seasons, notching 78 and 60 points respectively.  While that’s not a great return on this price tag, he’s still producing like a core player.  Given his age when his next contract will begin (36), the AAV might be closer to the $5MM mark.  If he signs a one-year deal next time out, he’ll be eligible for performance incentives, similar to what Dallas had been doing with Joe Pavelski before his retirement.

Duchene was a late entrant to the free agent market last summer so the one-year, $3MM deal he signed then made sense for both sides, seemingly positioning himself for a raise and a multi-year guarantee this past summer.  Instead, he opted to stick around on the same contract, leaving some money and security on the table in the process.  It’s possible he agrees to do so again next summer but if he doesn’t, he could still land a three-year (or so) agreement closer to $4.5MM per season.  Dadonov wasn’t as productive as he was late in the 2022-23 season after being acquired but with 23 points in 51 games, he still provided a decent return on this deal.  He has indicated that he doesn’t want any early extension talks and has left the door open to finishing up his career in the KHL.

Steel had a decent season in the bottom six but his arbitration eligibility was a concern, resulting in him being non-tendered.  While he did have some interest elsewhere, he ultimately elected to remain with the Stars.  With that outside interest, Steel should be able to land this deal or a bit more next summer if he has a similar showing this season.  Blackwell struggled with injuries the last two seasons which certainly didn’t help his cause going into free agency.  Nonetheless, as a capable penalty killer who can play center in a pinch, he could rebuild his value with a good showing in 2024-25 and push past the $1MM mark on his next contract.

Lindell is one of the more intriguing defensemen league-wide who is heading into the final year of his contract.  When he signed this contract back in 2019, he was coming off a bridge deal and what looked like a breakout 32-point campaign.  If he could find another gear offensively, Lindell would become quite a bargain at this price point.  Instead, he hasn’t gotten back to that total since with his best output coming this past season at 26.  While Lindell is still a very capable defensive defender, the limited production will limit his market to an extent as will the fact he’ll be 31 when his next contract starts.  With the cap starting to go up, a small raise could be doable but if he wants a long-term agreement (seven or eight years), it wouldn’t be surprising if the AAV came in slightly below this, barring an offensive breakout in the coming months.

Lundkvist hasn’t been able to provide the secondary offensive contributions Dallas was hoping for when they moved a pair of draft picks (including a first-rounder) for him in 2022.  Then, when the playoffs came around, his playing time was just 4:28 per night in a dozen games when he wasn’t a healthy scratch.  Thus, it wasn’t entirely shocking that he was non-tendered to avoid arbitration although the fact he was brought back might have.  He’ll once again look to earn some trust from the coaching staff (and perhaps a small raise if he’s able to do so) but will be a non-tender candidate next summer as well.  Smith came over in free agency and is set to play a depth role.  Now 35, it’s likely he’ll be going year-to-year on similarly-priced contracts from here on out.

Signed Through 2025-26

D Matt Dumba ($3.75MM, UFA)
F Mason Marchment ($4.5MM, UFA)
F Jason Robertson ($7.75MM, RFA)

Robertson has emerged as a legitimate top-line star, notching 268 points in 238 games over the last three seasons.  Signing after a 41-goal effort, the two sides worked out a rare four-year bridge deal, one that gives Dallas some good value on the contract while also setting him up for a pricier contract in his final RFA-eligible campaign.  He’s owed a qualifying offer of $9.3MM with arbitration rights at that time and unless he struggles over the next couple of seasons, there’s a good chance he’ll push past the $10MM mark in 2026.  Marchment, meanwhile, rebounded nicely after a quiet first season in Dallas.  If he stays near the 50-point mark over the next two seasons, he’ll have demonstrated enough consistency to give him a much stronger market, especially with the premium typically given to power forwards.  That could push his next price tag past $6MM per season.

Dumba didn’t get the long-term deal he sought last summer, resulting in him taking a one-year pact with an eye on having more success this summer.  That didn’t exactly happen as he had a quiet season in Arizona before finishing up with Tampa Bay, putting him back on the open market in a similar spot.  Getting two years at this money was more due to his track record than his performance last season; he’ll need to rebound if he wants a chance to get past the $4MM mark again in 2026.

Signed Through 2026-27

G Casey DeSmith ($1MM, UFA)
D Ilya Lyubushkin ($3.25MM, UFA)
F Tyler Seguin ($9.85MM, UFA)

It was expected that the best was yet to come from Seguin when he signed this contract in 2018.  While his best showing came just after this contract was signed (in the last season of his old deal), he has struggled since then, only putting up more than 50 points just once, that coming last season when he got to 52.  He’s still a capable top-six player but this is a price tag that’s well above market value.  His next deal might check in closer to half of this one as a result.

Lyubushkin rarely plays above the third pairing but did well enough last season to command his best contract so far.  That said, unless he can take on a bit more of a workload, it’s hard to see him getting another raise in 2027 as this is already on the rich side for someone destined to play around 16-17 minutes a night.

DeSmith gave Vancouver a small boost at the backup goalie position last season but after being surpassed by Arturs Silovs on the depth chart in the playoffs, it was clear DeSmith would be going elsewhere.  He elected for stability and a winning environment over chasing top dollar, giving the Stars a reliable second-string option at a below-market cost.

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East Notes: Marchand, Hollowell, Norlinder

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While Jeremy Swayman’s contract situation is rightfully getting the attention in Boston right now, Ken Campbell of The Hockey News highlights the other contract of note the Bruins will have to work out, which is an extension for Brad Marchand.  At the time he signed his team-friendly deal that carries a $6.25MM AAV, the talk was about how their top players left some money on the table to keep the core together.  Since then, David Pastrnak ($11.25MM AAV) and Charlie McAvoy ($9.5MM AAV) have signed pricey deals with Swayman believed to be looking for $8MM or more as well.  While Marchand is nearing the end of his career (he’ll be 37 when his next contract starts), Campbell wonders if he could be inclined to look to maximize his potential earnings this time around.  He adds that there have been no discussions about an extension between the two sides so far.

Elsewhere in the East:

  • With the Penguins lacking right-shot depth on the back end, Matt Vensel of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette wonders if free agent addition Mac Hollowell could be this year’s version of Ryan Shea. Shea didn’t have any NHL experience heading into last season but wound up playing in 31 games.  Hollowell does have six games at the top level under his belt with Toronto in 2022-23 but spent last season with AHL Hartford, notching 44 points in 64 games.  Pittsburgh GM Kyle Dubas is familiar with Hollowell from their time in Toronto which could help his cause this coming season.
  • Free agent defenseman Mattias Norlinder has decided to decline the offer the Canadiens made to him over the weekend, relays Expressen’s Gunnar Nordstrom. Montreal non-tendered the 24-year-old in June after a quiet season with AHL Laval that saw him record just nine points in 50 games.  Norlinder’s agent indicated that his client’s preference was to play in an environment that would allow him more freedom offensively which has him wanting to play with MoDo, an organization he spent several years with previously.  However, the team lacks the budget to sign him and announced the creation of a crowdfunding campaign to raise $1MM SEK (a little under $100K in USD) to be able to get Norlinder signed.

Five Key Stories: 8/26/24 – 9/1/24

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The calendar has turned to September and training camps are now just a couple of weeks away.  However, the enthusiasm for the season fast approaching was put on hold following a tragedy in the hockey world which is among the key stories of the week.

Tragedy Strikes: The hockey world is in mourning after Blue Jackets winger Johnny Gaudreau and his brother Matthew Gaudreau were killed after being struck by an accused drunk driver while biking near their New Jersey home.  They were 31 and 29 years old respectively.  Johnny was a key cog of Calgary’s offense for eight years, capped by a career-best 115-point performance in 2021-22 before inking a seven-year, $68.25MM contract with Columbus that summer.  He led the Blue Jackets in scoring in both seasons with them.  Matthew, meanwhile, turned pro in 2017 and spent several years in the Islanders system before entering the coaching ranks in the 2021-22 campaign.  Everyone at PHR sends our deepest condolences to the Gaudreau family.

Surgery For Brossoit: One of Chicago’s important free agent signings might not be ready to start the season as the team announced that he will be out five to seven weeks after undergoing meniscus surgery.  The 31-year-old inked a two-year, $6.6MM contract with the Blackhawks early in free agency, giving them a second veteran netminder to partner with Petr Mrazek.  Brossoit returned to Winnipeg last season in free agency and fared quite well, posting a 2.00 GAA and a .927 SV% in 23 games.  If he isn’t available to start the season, last year’s backup Arvid Soderblom will likely break camp with Chicago, an outcome that might not be the case for blueliner Kevin Korchinski despite spending all of last season with the big club.

Eight For Jarvis: It took a while but the Hurricanes and Seth Jarvis were able to work out a max-term eight-year, $63.2MM contract.  Generally, the cap charge for this deal would be the total value divided by eight but that isn’t the case for this one.  Per PuckPedia (Twitter link), $15.67MM of signing bonus money has been deferred to July 1, 2032, the day after the contract expires, making the present value of the deal just over $7.42MM; that amount represents the cap charge for Carolina.  Jarvis is coming off a career year that saw him put up 33 goals and 34 assists and the Hurricanes will be banking on the 22-year-old taking another step forward offensively.  The deal certainly tightens their salary cap situation but with Jesper Fast undergoing season-ending neck surgery, they’ll have some flexibility if they need to dip into LTIR.

Cousins To Ottawa: We’re at the point of the offseason where guaranteed contracts for veteran players are going to be hard to come by.  One of the exceptions is winger Nick Cousins who signed a one-year, $800K contract with the Senators.  The 31-year-old spent the last two seasons with Florida and is coming off a 15-point effort in 2023-24 where he picked up a career-high 130 hits and won his first Stanley Cup.  This will be the 11th season of his career and already his seventh different team.

Hakanpaa Expected To Remain Free Agent: While the Maple Leafs agreed to terms on a two-year, $3MM deal with Jani Hakanpaa on the opening day of free agency, the contract was never registered due to concerns over his lingering knee injury.  Now, it appears they don’t intend to make the contract official, keeping the 32-year-old on the open market.  Toronto will now likely redeploy that money up front with RFA winger Nick Robertson still in need of a new deal.  However, with the youngster still preferring to be traded, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Maple Leafs look at other options to add some depth on the left wing.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Colorado Avalanche

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the most important tasks for a front office.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t often see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2024-25 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of PuckPedia.  We begin with a look at the Central Division; next up is Colorado.

Colorado Avalanche

Current Cap Hit: $85,993,750 (under the $88MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Nikolai Kovalenko (one year, $896K)

Potential Bonuses
Kovalenko: $57.5K

Kovalenko spent most of the first season of his contract in Russia before coming to North America for a brief stint in the minors plus a couple of playoff appearances with the Avs.  Projected as a middle-six winger, his waiver exemption could work against him if Colorado is looking to bank early-season space but he should still be able to hit a good chunk of his games-played bonus.  Between that and his limited experience thus far, he’s a safe bet for a short-term second contract.  If he produces to expectations, that deal could approach the $2MM mark.

Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level

D Erik Brannstrom ($900K, RFA)
D Calvin de Haan ($800K, UFA)
F Jonathan Drouin ($2.5MM, UFA)
G Alexandar Georgiev ($3.4MM, UFA)
F Logan O’Connor ($1.05MM, UFA)
F Joel Kiviranta ($775K, UFA)
D Oliver Kylington ($1.05MM, UFA)
D Sam Malinski ($850K, RFA)
F Mikko Rantanen ($9.25MM, UFA)
F Chris Wagner ($775K, UFA)

Rantanen is clearly the headliner on this list.  The 27-year-old has become one of the top wingers in the NHL and is coming off his second straight season of more than 100 points.  League-wide, only five players have more points than him over the last three seasons; three of those are making at least $2MM more than he is.  New York’s Artemi Panarin is currently the winger with the highest AAV in NHL history; it stands to reason that Rantanen will be looking to at least pass that on his next agreement.  His linemate (we’ll get to him shortly) probably sits as the benchmark that Colorado won’t want to clear but a max-term agreement around the $12MM mark per season is a definite possibility.

The decision for Drouin to take a cheap one-year deal with the Avs last summer to help rebuild some value worked as he had a career-best 56 points.  However, his market was still fairly limited, which resulted in another one-year deal on the opening day of free agency.  Perhaps a second strong year will bolster his market next time out.  O’Connor was in the middle of a breakout performance last season and had a shot at 40 points.  If he produces at a similar rate this season, he could triple his current AAV.  Wagner and Kiviranta will battle for spots at the end of the roster and will get them or be beaten out by others at that price point.  At this point in their careers, both players will be going year-to-year, likely on two-way deals like they have now.

Kylington didn’t appear to have a strong market in free agency, resulting in a pay cut as he’ll look to do like Drouin and rebuild some value.  If he can establish himself as a full-timer after missing as much time as he has, he could at least double this next time out.  Brannstrom was non-tendered by Ottawa and had to settle for a low-cost deal as well.  He’ll be looking to do like Kylington but Colorado will have the ability to control him for another year, albeit with arbitration rights which could scare the Avs off from a qualifying offer.  Malinski has primarily played in the minors but did well in limited action last season and is now waiver-eligible which could help keep him on the NHL roster.  As for de Haan, he had a limited role with Tampa Bay last season and is likely going to remain close to the minimum salary moving forward.

Georgiev is one of the more intriguing pending UFA netminders.  He has led the league in wins the last two seasons and led the NHL in minutes played in 2023-24.  For someone making high-end backup money, that’s a strong return on their investment.  However, his numbers were particularly mediocre after a solid performance the year before.  That makes his next contract tough to project; if he’s closer to last season’s numbers, he might have a hard time commanding $5MM per season.  But if he goes back to his 2022-23 performance, a contract starting with a six could be doable.

Signed Through 2025-26

G Justus Annunen ($837.5K, RFA)
F Parker Kelly ($825K, UFA)
D/F Jacob MacDonald ($775K, UFA)
D Josh Manson ($4.5MM, UFA)

Despite a bounce-back season, the Senators opted to non-tender Kelly to avoid the arbitration risk, sending him to the open market early.  Even if he can’t put up 18 points again, if he can add grit to the fourth line and effectively kill penalties, he’ll have a much stronger market in 2026 in a more favorable cap environment.

Manson was able to stay healthy last season which is something that had been a challenge for him in previous years.  Even so, he was fifth among Colorado blueliners in ATOI; this price tag for a high-end third-pairing player is on the high side.  Unless he stays healthy the next two years and can move into a top-four role, he’ll be hard-pressed to make this on his next contract.  MacDonald returns for a second stint in the organization but with the extra blueliners they’ve brought in since then, his best shot to stick might be as a forward.

Annunen split last season between the NHL and AHL and will now get his first full NHL campaign.  He performed quite well in limited duty with the Avs last season and if he can push to take over as the starter by the time this deal is up, he will be in line for a significant raise with arbitration eligibility.

Signed Through 2026-27

F Ross Colton ($4MM, UFA)
D Samuel Girard ($5MM, UFA)
F Artturi Lehkonen ($4.5MM, UFA)
D Cale Makar ($9MM, UFA)
F Casey Mittelstadt ($5.75MM, UFA)

Mittelstadt came over at the trade deadline from Buffalo in one of the biggest swaps of the season, one that saw Bowen Byram go the other way.  However, it was a bit surprising that Colorado opted for this contract, one that only bought them one more year of club control although it kept the AAV at a more manageable rate.  He’ll need to take another step forward offensively and get closer to at least the 65-70-point mark to break into that next salary tier which would start around $7MM.

Lehkonen’s acquisition from Montreal has sparked another offensive level although he has battled injuries the last two seasons.  If he can keep producing at a 60-point pace while playing a strong defensive game, he should be able to add a couple million to his next contract.  At $4MM, Colton is a bit expensive for a third center but he is coming off a career season offensively so it’s a luxury they’ve decided they can still afford for now.  If he holds around the 40-point mark, he could land similar money next time out.

Makar set new personal bests in assists and points last season while being a Norris finalist for the fourth straight year.  It’s not very often that a player making $9MM could be viewed as a team-friendly bargain but that is the case here.   At this point, there’s little reason to think that he won’t be setting a record-breaking agreement for a defenseman, surpassing Erik Karlsson’s $11.5MM AAV on his next contract.  Girard missed time due to injury and a month in the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program and in between, he found his minutes dropped to the lowest they’ve been since his rookie year.  That said, he’s still a legitimate top-four defender.  His smaller stature will hurt him but if he can get back to the level he played at in 2021-22 and 2022-23, he could land at least a small raise.

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West Notes: Henrique, Silovs, Holloway

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While Adam Henrique ultimately decided to stay in Edmonton, he turned down at least one pricier offer to do so.  Postmedia’s Kurt Leavins relays that the Jets offered the veteran a two-year, $7MM deal; he ultimately took two years and $6MM to stay with the Oilers.  With Edmonton still trying to add to their roster on the trade front, it’s fair to say that extra half-million in flexibility that Henrique left on the table will come in handy.  Winnipeg, meanwhile, didn’t fare well in trying to replace Sean Monahan and the fact they made a higher-money offer to Henrique suggests that they’re likely to be keeping an eye on the center market on the trade front in the coming weeks to see if someone becomes available.

Elsewhere out West:

  • With Thatcher Demko’s availability for the start of the season in some question, the news that backup Arturs Silovs wouldn’t play in the Olympic Qualifying Tournament due to injury drew some extra attention. However, in an interview with Delfi, Latvia’s goalie coach Arturs Irbe noted the injury was sustained from overtraining and while he took time off a couple of times to recover, it was decided that they’d opt to be cautious and hold him out.  At this point, it appears that Silovs will be ready to go for training camp for the Canucks.
  • In an appearance on the Hockey Sense Show (video link), Blues winger Dylan Holloway acknowledged that his camp knew about the offer sheet coming before any true negotiations with the Oilers were held. Even before it was signed, the 22-year-old hoped to use it as a pressure point to kickstart discussions with Edmonton but those talks never came about.  Holloway indicated that his asking price wasn’t particularly high but evidently, the Oilers weren’t interested in working on a deal at the time.  He signed a two-year deal with St. Louis that carries a cap hit just above $2.29MM with Edmonton receiving a compensatory third-round pick in return.

Red Wings Have Shown Interest In Max Pacioretty

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Earlier this week, it was reported that Toronto was one of the teams showing interest in unrestricted free agent winger Max Pacioretty.  Evidently, they’re not the only Atlantic Division squad that has some interest in the veteran as Arthur Staple of The Athletic adds (subscription link) that the Red Wings are believed to be interested in adding the veteran as well.

The 35-year-old spent last season with Washington after inking a one-year, $2MM contract which also carried another $2MM in performance bonuses which were reached once he played in 20 games.  While Pacioretty was able to play in that many games, last season was still an injury-riddled campaign as he worked his way back from his second torn Achilles tendon sustained in the 2022-23 season while playing for Carolina.

As a result, Pacioretty was limited to just 47 games last season.  A six-time 30-goal scorer, he struggled considerably in that department, scoring just four times although he was able to add 19 assists to stay near the half-point-per-game rate.  Nevertheless, that wasn’t the type of performance that gave him some bargaining power heading into free agency.

The Red Wings have already been active up front with their free agent moves this summer.  They re-signed wingers Patrick Kane and Christian Fischer, added wingers Vladimir Tarasenko and Tyler Motte, and also inked Austin Watson to a PTO agreement.  Considering they still have to re-sign wingers Lucas Raymond and Jonatan Berggren (plus defenseman Moritz Seider), it’s hard to see a viable fit for Pacioretty.

While the veteran is believed to have interest from multiple teams, that shouldn’t be enough leverage to land much more than the league minimum of $775K at this point of free agency so this could be a case of Detroit viewing Pacioretty as a low-cost depth option over someone worthy of a full-time lineup spot.  In that scenario, adding him could make some sense.  But until they finalize contracts with their three remaining RFAs to get a better sense of what they have to work with financially, it would be a little surprising to see the Red Wings commit any sort of guaranteed contract to Pacioretty or any other free agent.

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