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Archives for June 2024

Free Agent Focus: New York Islanders

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Free agency is now just a month away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens.  There will be several impact players set to hit the open market in July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  We continue our look around the NHL with an overview of the free agent situation for the Islanders.

Key Restricted Free Agents

RW Simon Holmstrom – Holmstrom had a breakthrough season in 2023-24 notching 15 goals and 10 assists in 75 games while providing terrific penalty killing. However, a deeper dive into his numbers reveals that the 23-year-old had a 20.8% shooting percentage that inflated his goal total and is likely to drop significantly next season. Islanders general manager Lou Lamoriello has historically been a tough negotiator with younger players which will likely keep Holmstrom’s AAV down on his next deal. A bridge deal in the range of $1.25MM – $1.5MM per season seems likely for Holmstrom, who will be looking to build off a solid season.

F Kyle MacLean – MacLean will come into the 2024-25 season as one of the favorites to take over the Islanders’ fourth-line center role. The 25-year-old emerged this season from Bridgeport and proved to be a strong forechecker that forced defensemen to move the puck quickly and also provided excellent backchecking in the Islanders’ defensive zone. MacLean won’t score much, but he is strong defensively and can get around the ice to cause disruption. He seems destined to get a two or three-year bridge deal in the range of $900K – $1MM.

RW Oliver Wahlstrom – Wahlstrom had a couple of decent seasons to start his NHL career but has fallen on hard times the last two years totalling just nine goals and 13 assists in 67 games. A knee injury in 2022 has certainly played a role in him losing some of his momentum but on the ice Wahlstrom looks like a player that has lost his confidence. A change of scenery trade would greatly benefit the 23-year-old and give the Islanders an asset for a player who seems to have played his way out of favor with the franchise. The native of Portland, Maine is a former 11th overall pick, and would likely still have some value left, but the best the Islanders might get is a swap for another former first-round pick that has struggled to begin their career.

Other RFAs:  D Dennis Cholowski, C Ruslan Iskhakov, F Kyle MacLean, C Reece Newkirk, RW Tyce Thompson,

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

D Sebastian Aho – Aho is a skilled defenseman and a good passer who has posted some good numbers in the American Hockey League. However, in the NHL Aho’s size has made it difficult for him to use that skill to his advantage as he is frequently forced into giveaways. Aho is a smart player and can chip in on a power play, however, his skill set is best suited for a bottom pairing, preferably one where his partner has some size. Aho should get a short multi-year deal with an average annual value in the range of $1.5MM to $2MM.

RW Cal Clutterbuck – Clutterbuck’s play fell off considerably last season as the Islanders were hammered in the possession department when the 36-year-old took to the ice. While he was never an analytics darling, Clutterbuck’s 37.6% CF% at even strength (as per Hockey Reference) represented a career-low and the Islanders were under attack whenever his line was deployed. Clutterbuck’s pace remains okay, and he is still a physical force, however, at this late stage of his career, he is a below-average fourth-line player. Clutterbuck will still find work this summer, but it will likely be on a one-year deal around $1MM.

F Matt Martin – Much like Clutterbuck, Martin’s play last year fell off as did his ice time. Martin’s average ice time per game dropped almost a full two minutes and when he was on the ice the results weren’t great. Martin had just four goals and four assists in 57 games and his physicality trailed off as he appeared to wear down as the season went on. It was surprising to see his play drop off so dramatically as Martin had a career year in 2022-23, but one might wonder if Father Time finally caught up with the 35-year-old. Martin is another candidate for a one-year deal in the range of $1MM.

Other UFAs:  G Ken Appleby, D Robert Bortuzzo, RW Karson Kuhlman, F Otto Koivula, D Paul LaDue, F Brian Pinho, D Mike Reilly, D Robin Salo

Projected Cap Space

The Islanders are extremely limited this offseason as they have just over $6.5MM in cap space and 5-6 roster spots left to fill. The team does have several veterans they could try to move this summer to open up cap room but would likely need to retain some salary in order to facilitate a move. New York is in a tough spot that is similar to their divisional counterpart the Pittsburgh Penguins in that they are firmly committed to an expensive and aging roster. However, unlike the Penguins, there isn’t a lot of indication that the Islanders are looking to get younger and faster. The Islanders are a team that could be aggressive this summer as general manager Lamoriello tries to squeeze one more deep playoff run out of this group of veterans.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Hurricanes’ Eric Tulsky Favorite For Vacant GM Role

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The Carolina Hurricanes have reportedly notified candidates in their general manager search that they are now looking to hire internally, shares Frank Seravalli of The Daily Faceoff (Twitter link). Seravalli adds that current interim GM Eric Tulsky will thus be the favorite for the role. Tulsky took over the interim title after Don Waddell’s move to the Columbus Blue Jackets’ GM role in late May.

Tulsky has worked with the Hurricanes since the 2014-15 season when he was hired on as a data analyst after publicly supporting the advancements of advanced statistics. He’s since grown into a role as the team’s ’Director of Analytics’, ’Vice President of Hockey Management’, and ’Assistant General Manager’. Tulsky popularly left a career in chemistry, where he had once filed 27 different patents relating to electrolyte separators and nanoparticles.

Tulsky will face a very busy summer should he take on the new role. The Hurricanes have 13 pending free agents – including Jake Guentzel, Brady Skjei, and Brett Pesce – with just $26.874MM in cap space. Each player has expressed interest in returning, but likely won’t take the discounts the Hurricanes will need. The team is also entrenched with trade rumors around high-scoring forward Martin Necas – who could fetch a major return on the open market, potentially even landing Carolina former Vezina Trophy-winner Linus Ullmark. The hectic off-season will be a nice trial by fire for Tulsky, as he’s expected to earn the keys to one of the strongest, and most expensive, lineups in the NHL.

Free Agent Focus: New York Rangers

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Free agency is now just a month away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens.  There will be several impact players set to hit the open market in July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  We continue our look around the NHL with an overview of the free agent situation for the Rangers.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Kaapo Kakko – Kaapo Kakko’s pending free agency has become just as prolific as the rest of his early career, with the former second-overall pick not doing much to warrant a shiny new contract after a big step back this season. Kakko scored 18 goals and 40 points last year, beginning to vie for a somewhat comfortable role in the Rangers’ top-six, but he lost his momentum with just 13 goals and 19 points this year. It’s the third season of Kakko’s five-year career where he’s managed fewer than 20 points, with his career totals now sat at 117 points through 300 games. The measly scoring has continued into the postseason, where Kakko has just nine points in 44 career games. It’s hard to give up on one of the top names from an illustrious 2019 top 10, but New York will certainly use these contract negotiations as a chance to reset their expectations for the Finnish forward.

D Braden Schneider – Juxtaposing Kakko’s tame years with the Rangers, Schneider has done everything and then some to show he’s deserving of an everyday spot in the Rangers lineup since making his debut in 2021. He played in all 82 games this season and posted five goals and 19 points, one-upping his 18-point career-high set in 81 games last year. His ice time grew from an average of just 15 minutes in October to 17 minutes in the postseason, with Schneider even receiving top-line minutes multiple times throughout the season. It’s been a statement year for Schneider, who can enter negotiations confident that the Rangers will want to lock him up for the foreseeable future. But what price that term will require is yet to be seen. In a year with very few pending free agents, Schneider will be New York’s most integral re-signing.

D Ryan Lindgren – Amidst two restricted free agents on very different ends of the scale, Lindgren exists somewhere in the middle. His value is divisive, though he’s done a lot to show his worth as a stout defensive defender – even working his way into a confident second-pair and penalty-killing role this season. Lindgren posted 17 points in 76 games along the way, sticking within three points of his scoring totals in every season of his career. That consistency is commendable, if nothing else, and should be enough to pique New York’s interest. The Rangers could lock up their defense for the long-term this summer, a dream opportunity for a team faced with once again reconstructing the offense.

Other RFAs: F Karl Henriksson, F Bobby Trivigno, D Matthew Robertson, G Olof Lindbom

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Jack Roslovic – The Rangers acquired Roslovic at the Trade Deadline, sending a 2026 fourth-round pick back to the Columbus Blue Jackets. And while his play was ultimately a bit hot-and-cold in New York, he vindicated the cheap acquisition cost with 16 points in 35 games with the Rangers, split between the regular season and the playoffs. Roslovic served in his patented third-line role with the Rangers, offering grit and all-three-zones impact but never jumping off the page. As a result, his minutes were the first on the chopping block when the Rangers welcomed back Filip Chytil, bumping Roslovic down to the fourth line where he struggled to score. Roslovic was by no means detrimental in his short tenure with the Rangers, but he’s already lost when faced with competition for minutes. He plays a style that the Rangers welcome, and it’d be no surprise to see him return, but he could quickly price himself out of that option on a Rangers team with less than $12MM in cap space.

F Alexander Wennberg – Wennberg was another Deadline acquisition for the Rangers, costing them a 2024 second-round pick and a 2025 fourth-round pick in a trade with the Seattle Kraken. The 25-year-old forward went on to struggle with the Rangers, posting just seven points through 35 games. He rotated around the team’s bottom-six, offering helpful lineup flexibility and even slotting onto special teams at points. Wennberg expressed interest in returning to New York in his exit interviews, even despite his modest role. He’ll likely be willing to take a cheap deal to make that happen, slotting him back in to a busy competition for minutes in New York’s bottom-six.

F Blake Wheeler – Wheeler’s last hoorah with the Rangers didn’t go entirely as planned, with the veteran forward playing in just 56 total games this season, after missing three months of the year’s second-half with a leg injury. He posted a just 21 points on the year, his lowest scoring since the 2009-10 season – his second year in the league. Wheeler’s recovery journey and valiant push to return for the playoffs have dominated much of the conversation around him, but the topic of retirement is looming. He will turn 38 before the start of next season and just had his one-year, $800K contract with the Rangers spoiled by injury.  The Rangers are now rich with bottom-six forwards and likely don’t have room for Wheeler even if he does want to play another year. He’s likely set on testing the waters of the open market, which should help him make a call on if he’s ready to quit.

D Erik Gustafsson – New York has a wealth of depth defense options, especially as players like Matthew Robertson and Brandon Scanlin adjust more to NHL roles. But Gustafsson brought an exciting spark to the Rangers blue line, posting a strong 31 points in 76 games without ever looking like much of a liability on defense. He was an ace up Peter Laviolette’s sleeve, typically serving bottom-pair minutes but always ready to jump into a top-pair role should the Rangers need a boost. Extending Gustafsson runs the risk of creating a logjam on New York’s blue line. But the veteran defender seemed well-adjusted to the team’s systems and offers cheap depth that’s likely too valuable for New York to pass-up.

Other UFAs: D Chad Ruhwedel, F Nic Petan, F Tyler Pitlick, D Nikolas Brouilard, D Mac Hollowell

Projected Cap Space

New York is entering the off-season with just $11.61MM in cap space, getting a slight boost from the announcement of an $88MM cap ceiling. That should be enough money for them to re-sign any of their pending free agents that they wish to keep, though Schneider’s deal could quickly eat up space if it mirrors the long-term deals of players like Jake Sanderson, Mattias Samuelsson, and Alex Vlasic. Securing Schneider, and their picks of Lindgren and Gustafsson, will solidify a Rangers blue-line that looked sound for much of last season – but it may come at the cost of parting with their plethora of depth forwards.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Stars, Matt Duchene Have Mutual Interest In Extension

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Matt Duchene wants to remain in the Lone Star State next season, he recently said on The Sweep Spot on Sportsradio 96.7FM/1310 the Ticket. The veteran forward said that “money is definitely not the No. 1 bucket,” implying he’d take a discount to sign an extension with the Stars.

That follows a report from Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman last week that Dallas is hoping to bring back both Duchene and defenseman Chris Tanev, who are slated to become unrestricted free agents next month.

Duchene, 33, had 25 goals and 65 points in 80 games for the Stars last season after signing a one-year, $3MM pact in free agency. He was an unexpected addition to the open market after the Predators bought out the final three seasons of his seven-year, $56MM contract.

The 2009 third-overall pick will be getting a decent paycheck from Nashville through 2029, so it’s foreseeable why he’d be especially willing to take a discount at this stage in his career. Duchene hit the 1,000-game plateau this past season but failed to reach his first Stanley Cup Final when Dallas lost to Edmonton in this year’s Western Conference Final.

Still, even a discounted raise on Duchene’s previous $3MM cap hit may be tough for Dallas to swallow. They enter the summer with $16.25MM in projected cap space but have 10 open roster spots, per CapFriendly.

He’s still an important piece that should be retained if possible. Duchene has hit 50 points in each of the past three seasons and would be an important factor in shouldering the loss of Joe Pavelski, who’s expected to retire and not return to the club. Slightly increased minutes for Duchene, as well as the continued development of youngsters Wyatt Johnston and Logan Stankoven, should help replace Pavelski’s 67 points last season by committee.

Senators Aggressively Pursuing Goaltending Upgrade

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The Senators may add their name to the goalie carousel this summer. As the Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch writes, general manager Steve Staios is becoming intent on upgrading the club’s situation between the pipes.

The Sens thought they had their man last summer when previous GM Pierre Dorion inked Joonas Korpisalo to a five-year, $20MM contract in free agency. The 30-year-old’s market value was at an all-time high after a strong stint to finish 2022-23 with the Kings, but he was unable to keep it going in Ottawa in his first full season as a true starter.

His 49 starts and 21 wins were career-highs, but there wasn’t much else to write home about his season. Korpisalo’s .890 SV% and 3.27 GAA both ranked near the bottom of the list of starters, and his -16.1 goals saved above expected was second-worst in the league to Chicago’s Arvid Söderblom, per MoneyPuck.

With new management in town and a clear directive to end the Sens’ seven-year playoff drought, one season of below-average play appears enough for a serious change to be considered. They’ve been “one of the most aggressive teams” in trade discussions for Flames netminder Jacob Markström, a league executive told Garrioch, and they’ve also contacted the Bruins about trading for 2023 Vezina Trophy winner Linus Ullmark.

Even with the salary cap’s upper limit increasing to a record $88MM, the Sens may find themselves in a little bit of a cap crunch this summer. They’ve got $12.5MM in projected space with anywhere from five to seven roster spots to fill, including a new deal for pending RFA Shane Pinto. Offloading Korpisalo with four years left on his deal may be unrealistic in a goalie trade, but repurposing backup Anton Forsberg’s $2.75MM in a trade, along with many other parts for a starter, could help ease any financial considerations.

They’re not viewed as the favorites for either Markström or Ullmark, though. The Devils have positioned themselves as the frontrunner in Markström talks. While it’s not clear who’s put together the most competitive offer to the Bruins for Ullmark, he’s got a 16-team no-trade list. The stuck-in-low-gear Senators might very well be on it. Even if Markström wasn’t so closely tied to New Jersey, he boasts a full no-move clause and could block a trade.

Nonetheless, it would be smart to count the Sens in for nearly every netminder who finds himself on the block this summer.

Lightning RFA Waltteri Merela Signs In Switzerland

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After one season in the Lightning organization, forward Waltteri Merela is headed back overseas. The Finnish winger has signed a one-year deal with SC Bern of the Swiss National League, per a team announcement.

Merela, 25, is a pending restricted free agent. Tampa can retain his NHL rights until July 1, 2026, by issuing him a qualifying offer before the June 30 deadline.

Lightning general manager Julien BriseBois signed Merela as an undrafted free agent a little over a year ago, inking him to a one-year, two-way deal with an $870K cap hit. The 6’2″ right wing had been a two-way force in his native Finland in the preceding years, capping off his 2022-23 season with 14 points in 14 playoff games for Tappara as he helped the club win back-to-back Liiga championships.

Merela then made the Bolts out of camp, and while it wasn’t a huge surprise, he was far from a lock. While that indicated Tampa may have found a diamond in the rough, Merela struggled to produce, logging just one goal through 19 games before being sent to AHL Syracuse for the majority of the season. He wasn’t much of a factor possession-wise in his fourth-line minutes, posting a -2 rating and average shot attempt numbers while averaging 9:49 per game.

On the farm in Syracuse, Merela performed much better, potting 15 goals and 34 points in 55 games. Still, without a dedicated path back to NHL minutes with the Lightning next season, it’s unsurprising to see him try his luck overseas again. He’s still young enough that an NHL return may be in the cards someday.

Merela joins a Bern roster next season with a handful of former NHL talent, including Dominik Kahun and Patrik Nemeth.

Maple Leafs Linked To Laurent Brossoit

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The Maple Leafs and netminder Laurent Brossoit will have mutual interest in a deal should he reach unrestricted free agency on July 1, The Athletic’s James Mirtle reports.

Brossoit, 31, is likely headed to market in search of a bigger role after making 22 starts last season behind Connor Hellebuyck with the Jets. He’s coming off a great season in his limited relief action, putting up a .927 SV%, 2.00 GAA and three shutouts, but without any history in a tandem role, he won’t command too much cash.

Those 22 starts were remarkably a career-high for the veteran netminder, who just completed his 10th NHL season. His career numbers (.911 SV%, 2.64 GAA) rival the other top options slated for the open market, like Anthony Stolarz and Cam Talbot, and he’s arguably been the best pure backup in the league over the past 18 months.

A member of the Cup-winning Golden Knights last season, Brossoit started the year on the injured list and was sent down to the minors upon his return to health in November. But he worked his way back to the Vegas roster later in the year, posting a .927 SV% in 10 starts and one relief appearance. That earned him the start in Game 1 of their postseason run against the Jets, and while an injury eventually forced him out of the crease and opened the door for Adin Hill, he’d re-established himself as a major-league talent.

As Mirtle posits, a short-term deal in the neighborhood of $3MM annually is a realistic bet for Brossoit. It’s similar to what Stolarz, who’s coming off a .925 SV% in 27 appearances behind Sergei Bobrovsky in Florida, should garner as well.

He would be Toronto’s replacement for Ilya Samsonov, who will hit free agency next month and isn’t expected back. He’d been serviceable but inconsistent in tandem action for them over the past two seasons, although he did backstop them to their first playoff series win of the Auston Matthews era against the Lightning in the first round in 2023.

In Toronto, Brossoit would nearly guarantee himself a new career-high in starts, assuming he avoids injuries. He’d serve in a tandem role with the younger Joseph Woll, who is slated to eventually take over as the Leafs’ long-term starter. Injuries limited him to 25 games last year, posting a respectable .907 SV%, but he’s also been excellent in brief playoff action over the last two seasons.

Five Key Stories: 6/3/24 – 6/9/24

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The Stanley Cup Final is now underway and although there typically isn’t a lot of activity around the NHL during the final series, there was still some notable news and notes from the past week which is recapped in our key stories.

Salary Cap Set: With the players’ share of the overage they received during the pandemic-shortened season now repaid, the salary cap is getting a nice boost heading into next season.  The league has set the Upper Limit of the cap at $88MM, an increase of $4.5MM from 2023-24’s number.  The cap had been going up by just $1MM per year while the escrow portion was paid off.  Meanwhile, the increase at the top end means that the minimum cap expenditure is also going up, from $61.7MM this season to $65MM in 2024-25.  Many teams have been cap-strapped in recent years and while this increase won’t solve all of that, it will provide at least a bit of flexibility moving forward.

Kekalainen Linked To Hurricanes: With Don Waddell leaving Carolina for Columbus, the Hurricanes now have a GM vacancy to fill.  It appears one of the contenders for the role is former Blue Jackets GM Jarmo Kekalainen.  While Columbus didn’t fare well over the last few years of his tenure, Kekalainen would add some experience to an organization that’s planning to go with a by-committee approach when it comes to decision-making, a process that will also involve owner Tom Dundon.  In the meantime, one of the decisions the Hurricanes have to make is what to do with pending UFA winger Jake Guentzel who appears intent on testing free agency.  For the time being, it appears Carolina has made his negotiating rights available for a draft pick.

Pavelski Expected To Retire: While he stressed that this was not an official retirement announcement, Stars forward Joe Pavelski said that he believes that he has played his final NHL season.  The 39-year-old spent the first 13 years of his career in San Jose before moving to Dallas in 2019-20 after not being able to secure a multi-year agreement with the Sharks.  The change of scenery worked out quite well for both sides as Pavelski had his two best seasons with Dallas and even managed 67 points this season.  If this is indeed it for him, Pavelski finishes up with 476 goals and 592 assists in 1,332 regular season games while chipping in with 143 points in 201 playoff contests.  He reached the top-25 in all-time playoff appearances last round against Edmonton.

Lottery Picks Available: Teams looking to move up in the draft order could have some options in the coming weeks as reports suggest that the Devils and Sabres are open to moving their first-round selections, slotted at 10th and 11th respectively.  Both teams are looking to rebound from disappointing seasons and aren’t believed to be looking for a pick swap but rather are dangling the selection to make an impact addition that can help them win now.  We’ll find out over the coming weeks if they get an offer to their liking to part with a lottery selection.

Ehlers Not Interested In Extension: Nikolaj Ehlers has been a key part of Winnipeg’s forward group for the past nine years but it appears he would like his time with them to end sooner than later.  He is believed to have indicated that he is not interested in signing an extension with the Jets and would welcome a trade.  Ehlers has one year left on his contract at $6MM and will be UFA-eligible in 2025.  Coming off a 25-goal, 61-point campaign, he’s likely in line for a raise on that price tag and if Winnipeg is open to allowing extension talks to occur prior to a trade, they could get a better return for Ehlers over dealing him strictly as a rental player.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Snapshots: Domi, Girgensons, Escrow, Draft

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Maple Leafs forward Max Domi told Lance Hornby of the Toronto Sun that he knows his agent Judd Moldaver has been in discussions with GM Brad Treliving but declined to comment on the status of negotiations.  Domi signed a one-year, $3MM deal with Toronto last summer but saw his goal total drop from 20 a year ago to just nine this season.  However, his 38 assists were his best since the 2018-19 campaign.  That could still put him in line for a raise this summer on a multi-year agreement.  Toronto has a little less than $19MM in cap room per CapFriendly but they have multiple key pieces to try to sign into that space which could make fitting in a raise for Domi a little harder.

Elsewhere around the hockey world:

  • The Sabres are interested in re-signing pending unrestricted free agent Zemgus Girgensons, relays Lance Lysowski of The Buffalo News. The 30-year-old has spent the last ten seasons with Buffalo after they drafted him in the first round back in 2012.  However, Girgensons hasn’t reached the 20-point mark since his sophomore year and while he provides some value in a limited checking role, it could make sense for both sides for the forward to ultimately move on.
  • After years of losing money to escrow, Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli reports that players could receive the full 6% escrow payment back plus potentially a small top-up to their salary to balance the players’ share at 50% of Hockey Related Revenues. If that happens, it will be the first time the players receive a top-up since the 2011-12 campaign.  Any top-up would not affect salary cap calculations for the 2023-24 season.
  • In the latest 32 Thoughts podcast (audio link), Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports that some agents feel the draft needs to be shortened to as little as four rounds. Most of the players who ultimately don’t sign with the teams that drafted them come from the final few rounds so some believe they should have the opportunity to be free agents earlier compared to waiting for their rights to be relinquished.  The last time the draft was cut was back in 2005 when it went from nine rounds to the current seven.  This is a collectively bargained issue so no changes will be on the short-term horizon.

Offseason Checklist: Nashville Predators

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The offseason has arrived for all but the two teams who are still taking part in the playoffs.  For the rest, it’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Nashville.

It looked like Nashville was pivoting to a rebuild with the moves they made last summer but instead, it wound up being more of the same even with some core pieces gone and other new core players in place.  The Preds went on a major hot streak in the second half of the season, recording at least a point in a franchise-record 18 straight games which helped secure them a Wild Card spot.  However, they weren’t able to muster up much offense in the playoffs, resulting in a first-round elimination.  Now, assuming they’re not looking to rebuild now, GM Barry Trotz will have several objectives to try to accomplish this summer.

Replace McDonagh

Trotz made one notable move this offseason, sending Ryan McDonagh back to Tampa Bay, fulfilling a request from the blueliner.  In doing so, he took one of their more notable defenders out of their lineup.  While they offloaded his full $6.75MM cap hit and got a second-rounder, they didn’t get anything back that could help the current roster while creating a big hole to fill.

This past season, McDonagh was second on the team in ice time behind only Roman Josi.  He was also second in points by a blueliner and blocked shots while leading all Nashville players in shorthanded ice time.  Suffice it to say, they need to find an impactful replacement.

Brandon Montour is the only pending unrestricted free agent who averaged more than McDonagh’s 21:47 per game in 2023-24.  Having said that, veterans like Brady Skjei and Brett Pesce can also fill that void.  Chris Tanev would be a shorter-term addition to cover some hard defensive minutes while Matt Roy could be more of an under-the-radar fit.  Alternatively, they could look to the trade market.

With Alexandre Carrier and Tyson Barrie also set to hit the open market next month, the Preds will also have some work to do in terms of adding some depth.  But on top of that, they’re going to need to find a top-three defender if they want to hang around the playoff picture.

Decide Saros’ Future

This time a year ago, there was speculation that the Predators were open to moving Yaroslav Askarov with an eye on making a splash either at the draft or to upgrade their roster.  Clearly, that never materialized and the young netminder had a strong season with AHL Milwaukee and remains their goaltender of the future.

How close the future is remains to be seen, however.  Veteran goaltender Juuse Saros is set to enter the final year of his contract next season, one that carries a below-market $5MM AAV.  The 29-year-old’s numbers for the year weren’t spectacular but he was much better in the second half of the year and had a strong showing in the playoffs.  That has him well-positioned to earn a considerable raise on his next deal.  On the surface, he could make a case for a contract similar to the seven-year, $59.5MM pact ($8.5MM AAV) that Connor Hellebuyck signed with Winnipeg last season.

With Askarov in the picture, is it advisable for them to commit that type of deal to Saros?  If they feel they should do that, then it’s possible that Askarov could be in play once again.  On the flip side, if Trotz feels that it’s not worth paying that type of contract, then the decision becomes about trading him now or keeping him into next season and re-assessing closer to the trade deadline.

If they look to move him in the coming weeks, it might be tough to elicit top value with Jacob Markstrom and Linus Ullmark (among others) believed to be available as well.  While that means there could be more demand for starting goalies, the higher supply could lower the offers coming Nashville’s way.  Generally speaking, teams typically get better returns if they move a goalie in the offseason but it’s certainly possible that this isn’t the case this year with the other netminders in play.

On the surface, this could be Nashville’s biggest decision of the summer.  Is it time to hand the reins to Askarov?  They’ll have to determine the answer to this question probably within the next few weeks.

Add Scoring Depth

Under Andrew Brunette, the Predators went from 27th in goals scored in 2022-23 to 10th this season, gaining 40 extra goals in the process.  However, they struggled considerably in that department in their opening-round loss to Vancouver, scoring just a dozen times in six games even with the Canucks playing most of that series without starting goaltender Thatcher Demko.

To that in, despite their improvement in the regular season, Trotz told Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic (subscription link) that he’s looking to add up front, particularly in their top nine so they’re not as reliant on the top line as they were at times.  Before looking at the external options, they will need to consider some internal ones, however.

Youngsters Juuso Parssinen, Philip Tomasino, and Egor Afanasyev all spent time in the minors this season (the latter almost the entire year) but are all now waiver-eligible moving forward.  Parssinen and Tomasino have had some success in Nashville at times but haven’t been the most consistent so far.  Trotz will need to identify which ones are in the plans for 2024-25 and if any aren’t, this might be the time to try to move them before running the risk of having to sneak them through waivers.  But one (or more) of them establishing themselves as regulars next season should help their offensive depth at a minimum.

As for free agent options, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them take a run at re-signing Jason Zucker who fit in pretty well after being acquired at the trade deadline.  Beyond that, since their focus seems to be on improving their depth, they’re probably not going to be targeting the top end of the UFA class.  But veterans like Tyler Toffoli and Vladimir Tarasenko could appeal as multi-year veteran options while Jake DeBrusk and Teuvo Teravainen could be longer-term fits.  With $26MM in cap space per CapFriendly, they will have room to add a forward or two even after addressing their defensive situation.

Improve Penalty Kill

During the regular season, Nashville’s penalty was a trouble spot.  Their success rate dropped to just 76.9%, good for 22nd in the league.  For comparison, they were at 82.6% in 2022-23, good for a three-way tie for fourth in the NHL in that regard.  The slippage shorthanded likely played a role in their decision to let assistant coach Dan Hinote go late last month as one of his responsibilities was running the penalty kill.

For starters, they’ll need to find a replacement for Hinote behind the bench who will likely take on his old role.  That’s something they’d probably like to have in place before free agency opens up next month.

It wouldn’t be surprising if penalty killing acumen will be among the priorities that Nashville uses to round out their back end to replace Carrier (assuming he doesn’t re-sign) and Barrie.  There are plenty of depth defensemen available on the open market, several of which can handle heavy penalty killing roles while the lower-end blueliners are typically easier to get on the trade market.  They should be able to address this in the coming weeks.

Things get a little harder when it comes to their forwards.  They already have ten returning forwards, not including the three now-waiver-eligible ones mentioned earlier.  If they bring Zucker back and/or add another offensive forward, that fills one hold but probably doesn’t address the penalty killing element unless they’re bringing in a notable two-way player.  It might require shaking up the fourth line that was quietly effective or moving out someone already there to open up a roster spot to bring in more of a penalty killing specialist to help get this unit back on track.  It’s not a must-fix priority but it’s one that Trotz will likely try to address nonetheless.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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