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Archives for December 2023

Evening Notes: Senators, Wild, Penguins

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The Ottawa Senators announced today that they have recalled forwards Angus Crookshank and Jiri Smejkal from their AHL affiliate in Belleville. Both players had been previously assigned to the AHL after the Senators 5-4 overtime win on Saturday night against the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Both Crookshank and Smejkal had been with the Senators on an emergency recall prior to the break and were unable to stay with the club because the emergency conditions wouldn’t be satisfied. But with the team in Toronto tomorrow night to take on the Maple Leafs both players were able to be recalled joining the club as they get set to begin a busy stretch of games over the next few weeks. The Senators play three times before the new year and 15 times in January as they try to play catchup to the rest of the Eastern Conference.

In other evening notes:

  • The Minnesota Wild announced a pair of recalls as they brought up Daemon Hunt and Jake Lucchini from the Iowa Wild of the AHL. Both players were reassigned to Iowa on Sunday making this move a paper transaction similar to that of the Senators. Lucchini has spent most of the year in Iowa and played his first game with Minnesota on December 23rd. His recall could mean that forward Ryan Hartman will remain out of action when the Wild resume play against the Detroit Red Wings tomorrow night. Hunt will likely serve as the Wild’s extra defenseman for tomorrow night’s game.
  • Dan Kingerski of Pittsburgh Hockey Now writes that he believes it is possible the Pittsburgh Penguins could hang on to pending unrestricted free agent Jake Guentzel until the end of the season and treat that as their big trade deadline acquisition. The Penguins currently sit five points back of the final wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference but hold three games in hand on the Tampa Bay Lightning who currently occupy that position. Kingerski believes that the Penguins will forgo a potential trade package for Guentzel if they remain within six points of the playoffs by the end of January.

Red Wings Place Christian Fischer On IR, Recall Three Players

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The Detroit Red Wings have announced that they’ve placed forward Christian Fischer on the injured reserve retroactive to December 23rd. The 26-year-old was hurt in Saturday’s game against the New Jersey Devils and will miss the next two games with the injury, making this upcoming Saturday the earliest he can return.

Fischer has dressed in 33 games and has two goals and six assists in his first season in the Motor City. It’s been a disappointing campaign so far for both Fischer and the Red Wings as both sides likely expected more when the Chicago, Illinois native was signed to a one-year deal back on July 2nd. Fischer had become an unrestricted free agent after he was non-tendered by the Arizona Coyotes.

In a trio of other roster moves the Red Wings recalled three players from their AHL affiliate the Grand Rapids Griffins. Detroit has brought up forward Jonatan Berggren, center Austin Czarnik and defenseman Simon Edvinsson under emergency conditions.

Czarnik and Edvinsson were sent down just two days ago, and their recall is a paper transaction. Berggren on the other hand hasn’t played with Detroit since December 14th. During his most recent recall, the former second-round pick had a good showing as he posted two goals and an assist in three games, despite averaging less than ten minutes of ice time per game. In seven games this season with Detroit, Berggren has two goals and two assists.

Detroit is back in action tomorrow night against the Minnesota Wild and currently sits three points out of a wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference.

Trade Notes: Maple Leafs, Johnson, Martinez

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Once the roster freeze across the league is lifted on Thursday morning, it will mark the unofficial start to trade season in the NHL calendar. Up to this point, much has been made of the potential trade targets for the Toronto Maple Leafs, primarily centered around veteran defenseman Chris Tanev, currently with the Calgary Flames.

Instead of sorting through potential targets, Jonas Siegel of The Athletic wrote an article (subscription required article) examining the assets currently available to the Maple Leafs they will have to offer in any deal leading up to the trade deadline. Given the team’s current positioning in the standings and their liberal usage of draft selections in the past, Toronto’s first-round draft pick in the 2024 NHL Draft will likely be in play.

However, given the team’s recent history of trading first-round draft picks, there should be some considerable internal pushback in moving the asset once again. Since 2019, the Maple Leafs have used their first-round pick to acquire Jake Muzzin (2019), Nick Foligno (2021), Ryan O’Reilly (2023), Noel Acciari (2023), Jake McCabe (2025), and Sam Lafferty (2025). The team also traded their 2020 first-round selection to move Patrick Marleau to the Carolina Hurricanes, and their 2022 first-round selection to move Petr Mrazek to the Chicago Blackhawks.

Of the six players acquired by Toronto for first-round draft picks in the last six seasons, only one of them (McCabe) is still in the organization, as the rest have moved on to different organizations, or have seen their careers end. Keeping this in mind, if the Maple Leafs are to use their 2024 first-round draft pick as leverage for a trade this season, they would be much better served in acquiring a player with term.

Other notes:

  • Heavily linked to Calgary center, Elias Lindholm, Jimmy Murphy of Boston Hockey Now indicates if the price for Lindholm remains high, the Boston Bruins may look to a recent trading partner in the Chicago Blackhawks to improve down the middle of the ice (article link). Murphy indicates that shortly after the roster freeze is lifted, Chicago will make center Tyler Johnson available for trade, also being able to retain salary in the deal. With a high amount of injury concern attached, Johnson may still be an effective buy-low middle-six option for the Bruins.
  • After the recent extension given to defenseman Ben Hutton, Ken Boehlke of SinBin reports that more changes may be coming to the blue line of the Vegas Golden Knights. With seven defensemen already on the active roster, and with Shea Theodore and Kaedan Korczak both expected back at some point, Boehlke notes the Golden Knights may be inclined to move out defenseman Alec Martinez. The moving out of Martinez would open up space in the defensive core as well as cap space for an additional upgrade elsewhere.

Prospect Notes: Phillips, Hildeby, Minnetian, Terrance, Duda

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Currently on the roster through an emergency loan from December 9th, the top brass with the Chicago Blackhawks appear unconvinced that defenseman Isaak Phillips has earned a full-time spot with the NHL team, much to the dismay of Phillips. In an article by Ben Pope of the Chicago Sun-Times, Pope highlights the disappointment head coach Luke Richardson has had with the inconsistency still present in Phillips’ game.

Regardless of their opinion, without much in the way of NHL-ready talent available to the organization on the blue line, and factoring in the injuries to both Seth Jones and Alex Vlasic, the Blackhawks are all but forced to play Phillips most nights. In 17 games played so far this season for Chicago, Phillips has averaged approximately 18 minutes of ice time per night, playing in a shutdown role with veteran defenseman, Connor Murphy.

For most teams, the ’shutdown’ tandem on the blue line is generally tasked with lining up against the opposing team’s top offensive units, to suppress much of the firepower coming their way. For lack of better words, over his current stretch with the Blackhawks, Phillips has looked largely uncomfortable in his role.

Phillips remains one of the team’s better prospects without a full-time role on the NHL roster, and his current ailments may be multifactorial. At only 22 years old, Vlasic very well could be placing too much pressure on himself, which often tends to create a chain reaction in mental errors on the ice.

Other notes:

  • One goaltending prospect who is beginning to gain quite a bit of traction is Dennis Hildeby, currently rostered on the Toronto Marlies as a part of the Toronto Maple Leafs organization. In his first full season in North America, Hildeby holds a 7-4-2 record in 13 games played for the Marlies, carrying a .921 SV% and a 2.18 GAA. In a report from this morning, the Marlies unexpectedly scratched Hildeby for the team’s game tonight, giving some indication he may be receiving a callup for his NHL debut shortly (X Link).
  • Chris Peters of FloHockey is reporting that Aram Minnetian and Carey Terrance will be used as reserve players in case of injury for the U20 United States team at the 2024 World Junior Championship. Minnetian, who was drafted 125th overall by the Dallas Stars in the 2023 NHL Draft, is currently on the nation-leading Boston College program in the NCAA. Terrance, on the other hand, was drafted 59th overall by the Anaheim Ducks in the 2023 NHL Draft and is in the OHL with the Erie Otters.
  • Per a team announcement, Artem Duda has committed to Toronto Metropolitan University of USport, the Canadian equivalent to the NCAA in the United States. Duda was originally the 36th overall selection in the 2022 NHL Draft, taken by the Arizona Coyotes. Due to playing in 14 games for CSKA Moskva in the Kontinental Hockey League last year, Duda was unable to participate in the NCAA, given their guidelines of previous play in professional leagues.

Examining Buffalo’s Pending Roster Crunch

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It’s fair to say that the Sabres have underachieved relative to expectations this season, leading some to wonder if a big shakeup could be on the way.  That might not be the case just yet but it certainly feels like a small one could be coming simply out of necessity.

Buffalo currently has 24 players on its active roster, one over the maximum of 23.  They’re allowed to be in that situation during the roster freeze but once that lifts on Thursday, their hand is going to be forced and someone will have to come off the roster.  On top of that, Zemgus Girgensons is nearing a return; he skated in practice for a few days leading up to the holiday break.  He’s currently on injured reserve so when he’s ready to be activated, that’s another roster spot that will need to be opened up.

While the Sabres have several waiver-exempt players, it seems unlikely that most of them will be sent down.  Up front, Zach Benson can’t go to the minors, only to junior and at this point, he’s expected to stay up with Buffalo.  John-Jason Peterka is tied for third in team scoring so he’s not going anywhere.  Jack Quinn, meanwhile, just returned and was a full-time regular last season so it’s unlikely he’d be sent down for any sort of extended stint.

On the back end, Owen Power clearly isn’t going anywhere either while Ryan Johnson has been a regular most nights lately; on merit, he shouldn’t lose his spot.  Dropping him off the roster would also leave them with just six available blueliners which isn’t an ideal situation to be in.

In goal, Devon Levi is waiver-exempt and has been sent down once already this season.  However, since returning from his brief stint with AHL Rochester, he has a .916 SV% in six games, a mark that should see him being deployed once again as their starting netminder.  That makes him a non-desirable candidate to go down as well.

Faced with a variety of less-than-ideal demotion candidates from their waiver-exempt pieces, the next option might be the waiver wire.  They’ve already gone that route recently with Jacob Bryson while Riley Stillman is also receiving a seven-figure salary to play for the Americans as well.

In terms of who could be options on that front, Victor Olofsson’s future with Buffalo has long been in question; had it not been for Quinn’s injury, some had wondered if he’d even be with the team at this point.  He’s playing fourth-line minutes at even strength right now and with a $4.75MM price tag, it’s fair to say he won’t be claimed.  If they’re looking for a way to keep as much depth as possible around, waiving and demoting him would accomplish that.  With his contract, they’d have to take a player back if they traded him which wouldn’t solve the current roster logjam.

Tyson Jost might be on unstable ground as well from a waiver perspective.  He now finds himself out of the top 12 with Quinn and Tage Thompson recently returning from their injuries.  He has just four points in 28 games so far this season, a far cry from the 22 he had in 59 contests after being claimed from Minnesota in 2022-23.  Speculatively, his $2MM cap charge might be enough to dissuade a team from picking him up on waivers although it’s worth noting that the Sabres didn’t balk at that cap hit a year ago.  Meanwhile, a trade that didn’t involve taking a contract back as well also seems unlikely so going that route isn’t likely to clear a roster spot.

Eric Robinson, who was just acquired from Columbus, is another option.  He has already cleared waivers once this season and considering the trade that brought him over was for about as close to nothing as possible, it’s unlikely he’d be claimed as well.  Waiving and demoting him could ultimately wind up clearing the conditional seventh-round pick they gave up for him since it’s contingent on NHL games played for the rest of the season.  While he has played well in limited action so far, Robinson is a viable option to land on waivers.

Then there’s Eric Comrie.  The netminder has been in the third-string role a lot this season and his numbers when he has played (4.01 GAA, .863 SV%) haven’t been great.  On the other hand, he has been a regular backup for the last couple of years.  At $1.8MM, he might pass through waivers but if Buffalo was willing to retain on the contract – they have all three retention slots open – they might be able to get at least a late-round pick in a trade for him.  While that would weaken their goalie depth, they do still have veteran Dustin Tokarski in the fold who can play in a pinch if need be.

Teams don’t like to be put in a situation where they’re going to be forced to make a move.  But the Sabres are about to be in that spot with at least one spot to open on Thursday when the roster freeze ends and another one soon after when Girgensons returns.  GM Kevyn Adams has some decisions to make as a result.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

East Notes: Chabot, Peca, Spicer

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Senators defenseman Thomas Chabot is currently on LTIR with a leg injury but is eligible to return for their game tomorrow against Toronto.  While that won’t happen, it appears he won’t be out much longer as Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch relays that the 26-year-old has resumed skating and could be on target to return at some point on their upcoming Western Canadian road trip which gets underway a week from today.  Injuries have limited Chabot to just nine games this season which has been a huge blow to a back end that has certainly struggled so far which played a role in last week’s decision to make a coaching change and bring back Jacques Martin on an interim basis.

Elsewhere in the Eastern Conference:

  • Larry Brooks of the New York Post examines (subscription link) the impact that Michael Peca has had on the Rangers’ coaching staff. He has been assigned to work on the power play and faceoffs this season and New York reached the break leading the league in both categories, checking in at 31.1% and 54.8% respectively.  Accordingly, Brooks wonders if the long-time NHL center might attract consideration for a head coaching job this summer.  This is his first season behind an NHL bench while he has two years as an assistant with AHL Rochester as well.
  • Bruins prospect Cole Spicer’s season has come to an early end but not because of injury. The 2022 fourth-rounder has been ruled academically ineligible to play the second half of the year, reports Matt Wellens of the Duluth News Tribune.   Spicer is in his sophomore year at the University of Minnesota-Duluth and was moved onto their top line early in the season.  After putting up six points in 32 games in 2022-23, the 19-year-old had a better showing in the first half of this season, notching five goals and four assists in 17 appearances.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Columbus Blue Jackets

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Current Cap Hit: $80,952,057 (under the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Adam Fantilli (three years, $950K)
D David Jiricek (three years, $918K)
F Kent Johnson (one year, $925K)
F Kirill Marchenko (one year, $925K)
F Cole Sillinger (one year, $925K)
F Dmitri Voronkov (two years, $925K)

Potential Bonuses
Fantilli: $3.2MM
Jiricek: $1MM
Johnson: $1.85MM
Marchenko: $850K
Sillinger: $850K
Total: $7.75MM

Fantilli has come as advertised, quickly becoming one of the top players for the Blue Jackets.  After briefly starting him on the wing, they’ve moved him down the middle where he has more than held his own.  While it’s still quite early to project his next deal, if he can progress as expected, he’s a candidate to bypass the bridge contract.  Comparables are around the $8MM mark now but that could be a little higher by 2026.  Marchenko didn’t put up many assists last season but after scoring 21 goals, the coaching staff probably didn’t mind.  He boasts a more typical scoring line early on this year and has established himself as a top-six piece.  However, he feels like more of a bridge candidate; another 20-goal campaign could put him in the $3MM range.

Voronkov’s short-term future was in question not long ago but he has decided to stick it out in North America.  He has settled in nicely in the bottom six and can play center and the wing.  He’s someone who profiles as a longer-term secondary piece which means he’s likely looking at a bridge deal as well, one that comes in a bit below Marchenko’s.  Sillinger had a nice rookie year but a rough sophomore campaign that has him still as a secondary piece.  That will have him looking at a short-term second contract, possibly even a one-year deal in the $1.5MM range.  Johnson, meanwhile, had a good first full season last year but has spent time in the minors this year, putting him squarely in bridge territory as well.  His might come closer to the $2MM mark.

Jiricek has been eased into a full-time role with the Blue Jackets this season, averaging around 14 minutes a night.  A decision will need to be made within the next month or so to determine whether they will let him accrue a year of service time toward free agency (triggered at 40 games on the roster).  In a perfect world, he progresses to the point where they lock him up long-term but it’s still too early to call at this point.

As for the bonuses, Fantilli has a shot at all four ‘A’ bonuses ($1MM total) while Marchenko could hit a couple of his ($212.5K each).  The other three are more long shots to hit any of theirs.  GM Jarmo Kekalainen will likely want to try to finish this season enough below the Upper Limit to absorb any of these on this year’s cap rather than rolling some of the costs over to 2024-25.

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

D Jake Bean ($2.33MM, RFA)
F Emil Bemstrom ($900K, RFA)
D Nick Blankenburg ($825K, RFA)
F Yegor Chinakhov ($800K, RFA)
G Spencer Martin ($762.5K, UFA)
F Jack Roslovic ($4MM, UFA)
F Alexandre Texier ($1.525MM, RFA)

At times, Roslovic has been a productive cog but at others, he has struggled to the point of being dropped down in the lineup or even scratched.  That said, he has back-to-back years of at least 44 points and was on pace for that early on this year before an ankle injury took him out last month.  Impact centers are hard to come by so there will be teams showing interest even with his inconsistency; a multi-year contract around this price point should be doable for him.

Texier returned this season after spending 2022-23 in Switzerland; his contract was tolled as a result.  He has shown flashes of top-six upside but consistency continues to be an issue.  He’ll need a $1.75MM qualifying offer with arbitration eligibility.  Columbus should give it to him but his next contract shouldn’t cost much more than $2MM barring a big uptick in production in the second half.

Bemstrom has cleared waivers in each of the last two seasons but has worked his way back up to the NHL relatively quickly both times.  He’s a serviceable middle-six player but doesn’t have that one part of his game that makes him stand out.  A $945K qualifier isn’t too high but with arbitration rights, he will be in non-tender territory.  As for Chinakhov, he has voiced his frustration with his role and to his credit, he has been productive since then.  Still, he’s likely heading for another short-term deal.  This one should push past the $1MM mark with arbitration rights.

Bean had a good first season with the Blue Jackets in 2021-22 and looked like a key part of their top four on the blueline but injuries limited him last year while he has been a fixture on the third pairing this season.  He’s still young enough to not give up on but a $2.8MM qualifying offer with arbitration rights might be a bit too rich for what they’re willing to pay.  Blankenburg has been a nice college free agent addition to give Columbus more depth on the back end.  His waiver exemption has hurt him this season and will likely cap him on a short-term deal once again, one that could land around the $1MM mark.

Martin was claimed off waivers in training camp and while he has played better than he did in Vancouver last season, that’s a pretty low bar to clear; his numbers are well below average this season.  At this point, he looks more like a third option than a backup.  Even so, the way that market moved over the summer, Martin could still be in line for a small raise in free agency on a one-way agreement.

Signed Through 2024-25

D Adam Boqvist ($2.6MM, RFA)
F Justin Danforth ($975K in 2023-24, $1.1MM in 2024-25, UFA)
F Sean Kuraly ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Mathieu Olivier ($1.1MM, UFA)
D Ivan Provorov ($4.725MM, UFA)*
G Daniil Tarasov ($1.05MM, RFA)

*-Los Angeles is retaining another $2.025MM on Provorov’s contract

Kuraly had a career season in his first year with his hometown team but hasn’t been able to produce at that level since then.  Nonetheless, he’s still an effective checker who plays with an edge and can kill penalties.  This might be a small premium for someone who might be best served on the fourth line but they rely on him to play a big enough role to justify this cost although it’s hard to see him landing much more than that in 2025.

Olivier is a pugilist who can handle a regular shift.  There aren’t many of those still around so it’s possible he could still land a small raise on his next deal.  When healthy, Danforth has been a versatile piece who can play up and down the lineup and hold his own.  Getting that for close to a million a year is a nice piece of business.  If he can stay healthy, a jump to the $1.5MM range could be doable.

Provorov was one of their big acquisitions to bolster the back end over the summer after coming over in a three-way trade and the results have been mixed so far.  Nonetheless, he still is logging heavy minutes in all situations and will only be 28 when he hits unrestricted free agency.  Provorov’s offense hasn’t come around like Philadelphia hoped it would when they gave him his current contract but he has settled in nicely as a secondary contributor on that front.  Put that package on the open market in a more favorable cap environment and Provorov should be able to land at least a bit more than his current $6.75MM price tag (between what the Kings and Blue Jackets are paying him) while securing a max-term deal or close to it.

Boqvist was a key part of the return for Seth Jones but while he has shown some offensive promise in his time with Columbus, he has struggled to stay healthy (he’s currently out with a shoulder injury) and has spent time this season as a healthy scratch.  At this point, his $3.12MM qualifying offer might be a bit too pricey unless he’s able to establish himself as an every-game regular by the end of next season.

Tarasov has shown some promise in limited NHL action although he has struggled at times as well.  Ideally, he’s part of the longer-term solution between the pipes for Columbus but at this point, he needs to prove he’s worthy of the full-time backup role.  If he can do that, he could push for closer to $2MM as an RFA with arbitration rights.

Signed Through 2025-26

D Erik Gudbranson ($4MM, UFA)
F Boone Jenner ($3.75MM, UFA)
F Patrik Laine ($8.7MM, UFA)
D Andrew Peeke ($2.75MM, UFA)

While the price tag was high, the fact that Laine signed a multi-year deal to stay with Columbus looked good considering the player he was traded for basically forced his way out of Winnipeg.  When healthy the last two years, he has been near the point-per-game mark, helping to justify this price tag.  This year has been one to forget, however, between his struggles and multiple injuries.  He’ll need to get back to top form if he wants another contract anywhere near this price point.

As for Jenner, he has been underpaid for a lot of his tenure with Columbus.  He has become more of a scoring threat over the last few years while being a faceoff ace and logging big minutes in all situations.  He’ll be 33 when this deal ends but he should be able to land more than $5MM per season on a multi-year agreement if he can keep up this level of performance.

Gudbranson’s contract was widely panned from the moment it was signed as it seemed like an overpayment for someone best served on a third pairing.  He has played a bigger role than that with the Blue Jackets, allowing them to get more bang for their buck so far.  However, it would still be surprising to see him beat this price tag on his next deal.  Peeke, meanwhile, looked to be on the rise after logging more than 21 minutes a night the last two seasons, leading to this contract.  But this season, he has struggled to stay in the lineup, making him a potential change of scenery candidate.  He’ll need to get back to being a regular to have a shot at getting more than this in 2026.

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What Your Team Is Thankful For: New York Rangers

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As the holiday season approaches, PHR will be taking a look at what teams are thankful for in 2023-24. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We’ll examine what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the New York Rangers.

Who are the Rangers thankful for?

Jonathan Quick.

The New York Rangers haven’t had to worry about much this season, championing a 23-8-1 record that places them second in the NHL. But if there’s one player that’s encapsulated their success this season, it’s first-year Ranger Jonathan Quick, who’s satisfying a dream by finally making his way to New York. And Quick has jumped at the chance, revitalizing what seemed like a lost career. After recording a save percentage below .900 in three of his last five seasons before this year, Quick is not boasting an impressive .920 save percentage through 12 games, tallying a 9-1-1 record to boot. The Rangers don’t need to turn to him much, with Vezina-winner Igor Shesterkin still looking worthy of the award, but Quick has done a lot to completely solidify the Rangers’ crease, helping the team stick in the Top 10 of fewest-goals-allowed this season.

The 38-year-old Quick is on a one-year, $825K contract with the Rangers signed on July 1st. The netminder is in his 17th NHL season, playing 16 years with the Los Angeles Kings and winning one of his two Stanley Cups over the New York Rangers in 2014. He’ll now look to serve as a key support for New York’s own run to the Cup this year.

What are the Rangers thankful for?

A hardy offense.

The Rangers are scoring more this year than they have in any season since the turn of the century, averaging 3.34 goals per game through their first 32 games. What’s more, the scoring has been spread throughout the lineup, with the team carrying 11 different players with 10 or more points. Setting up their offensive systems has been the focus of New York’s game this season, carried on the back of Artemi Panarin’s 44 points in 32 games, a mark that ranks sixth in the NHL. Panarin is flanked on the statsheet by Mika Zibanejad’s 33 points and Chris Kreider’s 30 points in as many games. There’s even scoring on New York’s injured reserve, with the hurt Filip Chytil putting up six assists in the 10 games that he managed to appear in.

Having such a wide array of scoring talent has worked incredibly well for the Rangers’ power-play: the most effective power-play in the league with a 31.1 percent success rate. It’s the second-most effective power-play in the NHL since 2000, only behind the 2022-23 Edmonton Oilers who carried an impressive 32.4 percent success rate through 82 games.

It hasn’t been since the 2016-17 season that a Rangers team ranked in the top 10 of goals-for in the league. They haven’t managed that feat this year just yet – ranked 11th in goals-for with 108 – but with games in hand and a healthy roster, New York is entering the second half of the year with one of the best forward groups they’ve had in a long time.

What would the Rangers be even more thankful for?

Draft picks.

With so much going right for the Rangers, it’s unfortunate that they only have four first, second, or third round picks until 2026. This comes after the team has made just two first round picks in the last three drafts, significantly holding back their ability to build out a prospect pool that can support the NHL club for the long-term. With the low quantity of picks, it’s become a game of quality over quantity for New York, who have seen promising years from some of their top prospects. 2023 First Round selection Gabe Perreault is looking dazzling through his first 17 collegiate games, netting 25 points while playing alongside juniors hockey teammates Will Smith and Ryan Leonard. Fellow first-rounder Brennan Othmann is also coming into his own this year, with 22 points in the first 26 AHL games of his career. He’s followed on the statsheet by Ryder Korczak and Adam Sykora, who both have 11 points in 24 and 25 AHL games respectively. The success of so many first-year pros speaks praise to Steve Smith’s Hartford Wolf Pack, who currently rank second in the AHL’s Atlantic Division.

The Rangers have their First Round pick in each of the next three drafts – all three boasting seriously high-end talent at the top of the class – and even have a Second Round pick in 2024. But with no guarantee that they’ll be able to continue reeling in successful prospects, the team will need to make sure to keep the future in mind.

What should be on the Rangers holiday wish list?

A willing buyer at the Trade Deadline.

There’s very little reason to rock the boat in New York. The team is performing well, boosted by Adam Fox’s return to play. But even with the current roster clicking so well, the Rangers are still carrying NHL-talents Kaapo Kakko and Chytil on IR. No timeline has been provided for either player’s return but they could create a logjam when they work their way back into the lineup. While not necessarily a bad issue to have, the Rangers could be in a prime position to bring in a few assets if they’re able to deal one of their extra NHL forwards to a team who hasn’t had as much top-to-bottom lineup success. It’d be a shrewd way to make their assets work for them, although having plenty of forward depth can be an ace up the sleeve during the postseason. If the Rangers are open to trades will certainly be one question – but with so much going right for the club, there’s no doubting that they’ll have plenty of interested parties flocking their way come the Trade Deadline.

PHR Mailbag: Ovechkin, Lindholm, Campbell, Flyers, Blues, Calder, Final Four

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Alex Ovechkin’s chase to 895 goals, the potential viability of Edmonton moving Jack Campbell, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our mailbag from over the weekend.  We’ll also run one this weekend from the most recent callout for questions.

rule78.1: Based on what you have seen this year, does Ovechkin ever pass Gretzky?

As we sit here today, Ovechkin is at 828 goals, 66 behind Wayne Gretzky; he obviously needs 67 to pass him.  This year has been ugly for Ovechkin and Washington’s offense although they’re holding onto a Wild Card spot, albeit ever so slightly.

I can’t see Ovechkin’s scoring struggles carrying on for the entire season.  He’s at six in 31 games, a 16-goal pace.  I think he at least hits 20 by the time the year ends.  Let’s pick a completely random number and say he winds up at 23 and that the Caps find their scoring touch to an extent.  Now the gap is 49 to tie, 50 to beat him.

Ovechkin has two years left on his contract.  Could he average 25 goals per year in that stretch?  I wouldn’t put it past him even if it looks like he’s slowing down.

But let’s say he comes up a bit short following the 2025-26 campaign.  If he’s within, say, 10 goals of Gretzky at that point, I have to think Ovechkin is going to want to give it one more go to try to get the record.  I’m sure Washington would be more than happy to bring him back for that attempt, even though he’d be 41; the marketing alone could make it worthwhile if he gets there.  If not them, there would be other teams who certainly would be willing to give him that shot.

I know Ovechkin has struggled this season but I still think he’ll get the goal record eventually.

SkidRowe: Could the Bruins acquire Elias Lindholm in exchange for Hampus Lindholm and a Lindholm to be named later?

It’s too bad that Par Lindholm is no longer on Boston’s reserve list, we could have thrown him in there for good measure.

Calgary’s Lindholm is a fantastic fit for the Bruins.  There’s no doubt about that.  He’d help fill the role that Patrice Bergeron filled for many years which would fill arguably the biggest hole in their lineup right now.

The problem is that this probably isn’t the type of move the Flames should be looking to make.  This is a treading water type of trade and would probably need to be made in conjunction with them moving Noah Hanifin for a young center.  If they can pull this combo off and ownership provides a directive to not rebuild, maybe a package highlighted by the two Lindholms could work.  That’s a couple of big ifs, however.

The idea of Boston adding Lindholm down the middle has been raised a lot going back to the summer but the same problem exists now as it did then.  They don’t have many high picks in the near future to deal from and their prospect pool isn’t the deepest.  The emergence of Matthew Poitras perhaps makes him more appealing than he might have been a few months ago but if GM Craig Conroy winds up starting a rebuild, I still think he’d be aiming for a higher-ceiling piece.

aka.nda: How can the Oilers trade Campbell? With the cap going up, is a buyout not feasible?

Let’s look at the buyout cost first as that’s going to play a role in any trade possibility as well.  The total cost in actual dollars would be $9MM with a $10.5MM cumulative cap charge that would be spread out as follows:

2024-25: $1.1MM
2025-26: $2.3MM
2026-27: $2.6MM
2027-28: $1.5MM
2028-29: $1.5MM
2029-30: $1.5MM

(The variation in the first three seasons of the cap charge is due to the frontloaded structure of the contract.)

Jack Campbell is having a horrific season, no doubt about that.  His trade value is most definitely on the negative side and it’s going to take a significant incentive to offload in its entirety.  If you’re the acquiring team, you’re probably not taking on Campbell with the idea of trying to rehab his value and get him going again.  That means you’re probably taking on a $9MM cash payout and dead cap money into the next decade.  A first-round pick or a good prospect probably isn’t enough to justify taking that on.

Is it possible that Edmonton can move Campbell?  Sure, but it doesn’t seem likely.  Their best bet might be taking back a similarly high-priced underachieving contract but given their salary cap challenges, that’s a move that’s a lot easier said than done.

Now, is a buyout feasible for Edmonton?  Fundamentally, the idea of a six-year dead cap charge is something I’d usually say no to but I think an exception could be made here.

If the Oilers are confident in Stuart Skinner being the starter, could Edmonton get a suitable backup for less than Campbell’s $5MM cap charge minus the buyout cost?  Next season, they absolutely could with a bit of money left over which would be crucial given how tight their books are.  For 2025-26 and 2026-27, it’s still possible although there probably wouldn’t be any savings left over.  But if you can get someone who can play better than Campbell has, it’s still a net gain.

Three additional years at $1.5MM on the books will sting down the road but Edmonton is certainly a win-now team.  A Campbell buyout could help them on that front so the short-term gain is arguably worth the longer-term pain.

Emoney123: Tortorella for Coach of the Year! Has this team turned the corner enough to use some draft capital to add in an attempt for some playoff wins or hold the course in the rebuild since they have two first-round picks [their own and Florida’s] and two second-round picks [Columbus and LA Kings] and Michkov, Gauthier, and Bonk in the system?

Right now, John Tortorella has to be right up there for the Jack Adams Award as Coach of the Year.  The Flyers have been a lot more competitive than probably just about anyone expected.  But with around 50 games left in the season for most teams (give or take a few), there’s still a long way to go.  I’m not convinced they’re going to still be in a playoff spot two months from now let alone at the end of the year which probably will be what decides if Tortorella gets the award or not.

This is not a core group that’s a player or two away from doing damage in the playoffs so moving away some of their top draft capital for win-now options doesn’t make a lot of sense to me.  I still think the likelier scenario is that they wind up selling by March 8th, not buying.  And if they do hang in the mix and want to add, I’d want to see them moving later-round picks for specific role players in the hopes of giving their young core pieces some meaningful games without giving up much of consequence.

The only way I’d advocate for trading one of those draft picks is if they were getting someone in the 19-22-year-old range with high value.  That fits their current younger core and if the player is a few years post-draft, it could help speed up the rebuild.  But they’re very much still in the rebuild so moving those picks for veteran win-now pieces is not a move GM Daniel Briere should be considering.

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Atlantic Notes: Nylander, Hutchinson, Miller

at CDT | by 4 Comments

While the Maple Leafs locked up a key pending UFA back in August when they inked Auston Matthews to a four-year extension, they still have another member of their ‘core four’ to sign, winger William Nylander.  In a recent TSN Insider Trading segment, Chris Johnston of The Athletic reported that the two sides seem to be on the same page on a number of fronts while Nylander has affirmed his desire to stay with Toronto long-term.  Currently carrying a cap hit of just over $6.96MM, the 27-year-old has a chance to push past the $10MM mark on his next agreement.  He had a career-high 87 points last season and is on pace for 119 as things currently stand this year.

More from the Atlantic:

  • While Michael Hutchinson wound up inking a two-way deal with the Red Wings earlier this week following a stint with their farm team, he acknowledged to Ken Wiebe and Mike McIntyre of the Winnipeg Free Press that his preference was to go back to Winnipeg, the franchise he has had the most success with over an 11-year NHL career. Hutchinson noted that he did hold contract talks with the Jets but they ultimately opted to go with Collin Delia as their third-string option.  Meanwhile, with Detroit missing both Ville Husso and Alex Lyon at the moment, the 33-year-old finds himself back at the top level for the time being so it’s safe to say that things wound up working out well for him after all.
  • The trade deadline is fast approaching in the CHL and several NHL-drafted prospects will be on the move in the next couple of weeks. One of those appears to be Canadiens goaltender Quentin Miller as Kevin Dube of the Journal de Quebec reports that Miller will be moved to QMJHL Rimouski on Friday.  The 19-year-old was a fourth-round pick back in June and has a 3.05 GAA and a .901 SV% with Quebec so far.  Even though the trade has been agreed to in principle, Miller is expected to make one more start prior to the swap.

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