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Extension Candidate: William Nylander

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The Toronto Maple Leafs currently stand with the most to lose entering the 2024 UFA market. A pair of star forwards, Auston Matthews and William Nylander, remain without contracts past next season, although the level of optimism surrounding extensions for each seems to be increasingly farther apart.

In actuality, rumors regarding extensions for both have been quiet over the last few weeks. But where we left off on Nylander wasn’t exactly on a positive note. Most recently, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported in mid-July that negotiations were at a standstill. Chris Johnston of NorthStar Bets and SDPN also believed the gap between the two parties was between $1MM and $2MM, with Nylander desiring around a $10MM AAV and the Leafs countering with an AAV between $8MM and $9MM. Nylander also had a rather strong relationship with former Leafs GM Kyle Dubas, whose contract was not renewed earlier this offseason and Brad Treliving is now in his place.

There is still quite a lot of time between now and July 1, 2024, though – ten and a half months, to be exact. If the Leafs and Nylander can reconcile and work out a new deal, what could the final product be?

2022-23

The 2014 eighth-overall pick silenced most doubters last season with a career-best regular season and equally impressive playoff performance. He surpassed the 40-goal mark for the first time in his NHL career and tied for second on the team in playoff scoring with four goals. Despite a subpar reputation defensively in one-on-one situations, he’s consistently maintained strong face value and relative possession numbers, a trend that held true in 2022-23. It’s fair to say what we’re seeing now is peak Nylander, as the winger is now 27 years old and has eight seasons and over 500 games of experience under his belt. After back-to-back 80-plus point years, he’s cemented his status as a first-line caliber winger stuck at second on his team’s depth chart behind Mitch Marner.

Statistics

2022-23: 82 GP, 40 G, 47 A, 87 pts, +10 rating, 28 PIMs, 293 shots, 18:33 ATOI, 52.5% CF
Career: 521 GP, 177 G, 253 A, 430 pts, +23 rating, 134 PIMs, 1,441 shots, 17:10 ATOI, 53.8% CF

The Market

With Matthews and Tampa Bay Lightning center Steven Stamkos surely set to extend with their current teams, Nylander has a legitimate claim to the title of best pending UFA with a real potential of hitting the market. That’s something he’s sure to use to his advantage in extension talks with Toronto, and with this being his big opportunity to cash in, he has no intentions of accepting a discount on a long-term deal. What Toronto won’t give him, he’ll try to find somewhere else.

It sets him up well to earn the eight-figure deal he desires, whether in Canada’s largest city or with another team. He’s likely to be money in the bank for at least 30 goals and 80 points for at least the next five to six years, assuming he stays healthy, and a rich deal like this has the rare potential to be a bargain halfway through with the pace the salary cap’s Upper Limit is expected to rise. The latter factor is one that may influence Treliving to become comfortable with the idea of committing $10MM to a fourth player in 2024-25, although it’ll still be an incredibly difficult fit under the cap expected to rise to $87.5MM. That being said, John Tavares’ $11MM AAV deal expires in 2025, which will make it a one-season crunch if they do opt for an extension.

Comparable Contracts

Filip Forsberg (Nashville) – signed an eight-year deal worth $68MM ($8.5MM AAV) just a few days before the free agent market opened last season. It worked out to 10.3% of the salary cap at that time, which would translate to a $9MM cap hit for Nylander assuming an Upper Limit of $87.5MM when the extension kicks in. This will be Toronto’s biggest sticking point in negotiations – Forsberg was coming off an even better season than Nylander at the time (42 goals, 84 points in 69 games), had more games played than Nylander, and had scored with more consistency throughout his career. Like Nylander, Forsberg could have likely gotten more on the open market at the time.

David Pastrnak (Boston) – signed an eight-year, $90MM contract extension ($11.25MM AAV) with the Bruins amidst a 2022-23 season that saw him finish with a career-high 61 goals and 113 points, becoming the first 60-goal scorer not to win the league’s goal-scoring title since Jaromir Jagr in 1995-96. They’re totals he won’t likely replicate, but he’d still shown flashes of a higher offensive ceiling than Nylander, as evidenced during his 48-goal, 95-point 2019-20 campaign, which was curtailed thanks to COVID in March. There is a sizable gap between his and Nylander’s market value, and given the recency of the extension, Pastrnak’s deal likely sets Nylander’s market cap around the $10MM he’s pushing for.

Projected Contract

Given the above comparables, there’s a fair argument to be made that Nylander won’t quite net $10MM on a seven-year deal if he becomes a free agent next summer. That’s not to say the Leafs will get what they desire on an extension, though.

In all likelihood, Nylander’s number on a max-term deal will start with a nine, which is above Toronto’s currently reported range of $8MM-$9MM. Unfortunately, meeting in the middle is not always commonplace for UFA negotiations, especially with a player on the age precipice of Nylander, who likely won’t have the opportunity for another high-paying, long-term deal after this one. He won’t have permission to speak to other teams about a deal, though. If Toronto does up their offer to something in the $9MM range, and Nylander rejects it in hopes of getting eight figures per year on the open market, it could be a decision he regrets, especially considering he’s forfeiting a year of term by signing with another team.

Treliving does have to balance this with Matthews’ pending extension and an extension for Marner before the 2024-25 season draws to a close, although Tavares’ deal expiring alongside Marner’s will give Toronto some flexibility they haven’t had for a few summers now. Nylander will also likely be eyeing Pittsburgh Penguins forward Jake Guentzel’s extension situation as a more current/direct comparison for his own deal.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Latest On Jeff Petry

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The Montreal Canadiens re-acquired defenseman Jeff Petry last weekend at 75% of his $6.25MM cap hit as part of the blockbuster Erik Karlsson trade with the Pittsburgh Penguins and San Jose Sharks. However, this homecoming of sorts for Petry is likely to be short-lived, as Sportsnet’s Eric Engels reported immediately after the trade was announced that the Canadiens could be looking to move him once again. With the ability to retain an additional 50% of his cap hit, Montreal is positioning itself to facilitate a potential trade during training camp or early in the regular season.

While few teams would have interest in a 35-year-old defender making more than $6MM against the cap, Petry is certain to have plenty of market interest at a reduced price of $2.34MM until 2025, the lowest Montreal can bring him down to through retaining salary. As Chris Johnston of NorthStar Bets and SDPN noted on an episode of his podcast earlier this week, it makes sense Montreal would be willing to facilitate a deal. There’s a strong history between the player and team here – Petry played just over 500 games in a Canadiens uniform over parts of eight seasons, tallying 70 goals, 178 assists, 248 points, and averaging 22:42 per game. Montreal honored his trade request last summer, too, shipping him to a team thought to be playoff-caliber at the time.

Obviously, it didn’t quite pan out. Petry himself had an acceptable season for his role, scoring five goals, 26 assists and 31 points in 61 games and posting respectable possession metrics with a 51.5% Corsi for at even strength. Still, he was part of a quickly-aging core in Pittsburgh that sputtered last season, especially when it came to depth scoring. The Penguins missed out on postseason play for the first time since 2006 because of it, and only the second time while Sidney Crosby’s been a member of the team.

That being said, Petry is still a good second-pairing defender and an excellent third-pairing option if his next team shelters his minutes further. The right-shot can routinely produce upwards of 40 points in a full season and, while he’s far from a shutdown defender, isn’t a liability in his own zone.

Per Johnston, the Dallas Stars are likely to emerge as a fit for his services. They’ve had rumored interest in Petry at multiple points over the past couple of seasons, and they’d been reportedly looking to add on defense earlier in the offseason to no avail. Like most other teams looking to contend for the Stanley Cup next season, though, it would require a fair amount of cap gymnastics to get a deal done, even with Petry’s bargain bin price.

The Stars are currently projected at $317.8K over the $83.5MM Upper Limit for next season with a full 23-player roster, according to CapFriendly. Simply exposing veteran depth defenders Gavin Bayreuther and Joel Hanley to waivers and assigning them to the AHL would not clear the room to add Petry – they’d still need to clear about $1MM to be cap-compliant. The only waiver-exempt player on the roster who could feasibly start the season in the minors is defenseman Thomas Harley, although Dallas would love to see him take on a larger NHL role this season. Wyatt Johnston also does not require waivers, but he’ll be sticking with the team in a top-nine role in 2023-24 after scoring 24 goals and 41 points during his rookie campaign last year. With that in mind, the Stars would likely need to ship a roster player back to Montreal in any prospective Petry trade to make a deal work or make a corresponding trade with another team.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports.

2009 NHL Draft Take Two: Third Overall Pick

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Hindsight is an amazing thing, and allows us to look back and wonder “what could have been.”  Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended.  For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.

We’re looking back at the 2009 NHL Entry Draft and asking how it would shake out knowing what we do now.  Will the first round remain the same, or will some late-round picks jump up to the top of the board?

The results of our redraft so far are as follows, with their original draft position in parentheses:

1st Overall: Victor Hedman, New York Islanders (2)
2nd Overall: John Tavares, Tampa Bay Lightning (1)

Unsurprisingly, the top two selections from the 2009 crop are gone by the time we reach third overall. However, Hedman did leapfrog Tavares for the number one spot in our PHR polling, although it was much closer than in years past, with Hedman capturing just 53% of the vote. Tavares’ win was much more squarely in landslide territory at second overall, however, earning over 75% of the vote with no real challengers other than Ryan O’Reilly, who received 8%. With Tavares producing at one of the more consistent clips over the past decade and a half, it’s no surprise he didn’t fall any further than he did.

Now on the clock at third overall is the Colorado Avalanche, who are coming off their worst season in 15 years and look to be entering a full-scale rebuild with longtime captain Joe Sakic announcing his retirement shortly after the 2009 Draft.

This was a rather consequential pick for the Avs franchise, who hadn’t picked in the top ten since the Quebec Nordiques took netminder Jocelyn Thibault at tenth overall in 1993 (followed by future Avalanche cult legend Adam Deadmarsh at #14). With it, they selected the second center (and second OHLer) of the top three in Matt Duchene, coming off a 79-point season with the Brampton Battalion. He immediately looked like an incredible selection – Duchene stepped into a top-six role as a 19-year-old the following season, scoring 55 points in 81 games and helping the Avalanche return to a playoff spot in 2010. After building on it with 27 goals and 67 points in his sophomore season, Duchene looked like a potential Sakic replacement if his development stayed linear.

It wasn’t to be, however. His third season was a write-off, partially thanks to knee and ankle injuries which cost him 24 games. He quickly rebounded, though, clicking near a point per game in 2012-13 and 2013-14, but his offense soon fell to second-line caliber numbers, and he was eventually dealt to the Ottawa Senators early in the 2017-18 campaign. It started a run of four teams in three seasons for Duchene, who also had a brief pit stop with the Columbus Blue Jackets before signing a massive seven-year, $56MM contract with the Nashville Predators in free agency after he rebounded for 70 points in 73 games in 2018-19.

His tenure in Nashville was equally inconsistent. While he did have a career season in 2021-22, scoring 43 goals and 86 points, both his offense and defense took a step back last season, and the Predators bought out the final three seasons of his contract. Set to suit up for the Dallas Stars next season, Duchene does remain a serviceable (at worst) top-six piece as he enters his early/mid-30s.

While he wasn’t the standout, everyday first-liner he looked to be during his early days with Colorado, Duchene has still had quite a fruitful career. He hasn’t won any major awards but sits second in goals and points among the 2009 class behind Tavares. However, Colorado’s second-round pick this year, O’Reilly, has finished in the first spot behind Hedman and Tavares in both of our polls so far.

Given the polling and career resume, one of Duchene or O’Reilly will likely remain with the Avs in our Take Two series. Was Duchene the better Av out of this class, or has O’Reilly’s career (or someone else) eclipsed him? Make your voice heard in the poll below:

If you can’t access the poll above, click here to vote.

Pittsburgh Penguins Interested In Tomas Tatar

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The Pittsburgh Penguins are “keenly interested” in free agent winger Tomas Tatar, reports Rob Rossi of The Athletic. Tatar himself alluded to Pittsburgh’s interest in a recent interview with Slovak website Sport.sk, saying, “it [would be nice to play for Pittsburgh], but I don’t want to develop it further.”

Tatar, who was recently back home to accept this year’s Slovak Hockey Player of the Year award, spent the last two seasons with the New Jersey Devils after signing a two-year, $9MM deal with them in 2021. He did well in a middle-six role there after a rather unceremonious end to his time as a Montreal Canadien, as he was healthy scratched for the majority of their run to the 2021 Stanley Cup Final. The 32-year-old winger recorded 35 goals, 43 assists and 78 points across 158 games in New Jersey, rebounding nicely in his second year after a rather middling 2021-22 campaign. An often underrated standout defensive presence, Tatar received a handful of Selke Trophy votes in 2022-23 for the first time in his career after he posted a career-high +41 rating and a very strong 57.3% Corsi for at even strength.

The 5-foot-10, 173-pound winger hasn’t had documented interest this offseason, although some wondered if he could be a good depth fit for the Edmonton Oilers. That doesn’t mean he hasn’t had interest, however. “It’s been more teams since the beginning. There were many interested parties, which reassured me. The problem was more in the agreement. Whether it was about the length of the contract or the amount, we always fought with someone,” Tatar said. He later mentioned he’s at the stage in his career where he feels he should be picky about his destination in an effort to win the Stanley Cup. He’s been a member of two teams that reached the Stanley Cup Final – the 2021 Canadiens and the 2018 Vegas Golden Knights – but disappointed in both playoff runs.

Another thing Tatar mentioned was his desire for a two-year deal, citing the runway it gave him in New Jersey to improve during his second campaign there. However, he recognized the term demand was likely holding up negotiations and appears to be softening on the two-year requirement in an effort to land with a contender. Rossi also mentioned that if Tatar doesn’t get a guaranteed deal elsewhere soon, he could sign a PTO with the Penguins with the expectation of a one-year deal coming at the end, similar to what Mike Hoffman did with the St. Louis Blues in 2020.

Of course, this would come against what general manager Kyle Dubas said earlier this week after acquiring star defenseman Erik Karlsson. Dubas told reporters he believed the Penguins’ roster was relatively solidified coming into next season, but it’s hard to imagine Tatar not demanding a relatively fruitful roster spot if he does sign – especially to start the season with first-line winger Jake Guentzel briefly on the shelf after undergoing ankle surgery at the beginning of the month.

When everyone is healthy, Tatar would likely slot into a third-line role after playing second-line responsibilities with Nico Hischier for the Devils during much of last season. He likely wouldn’t fracture a top-four wing group that’s made up of Guentzel, Rickard Rakell, Bryan Rust, and Reilly Smith, although he would assumedly be the first to elevate either alongside Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin if injuries sideline any of those four longer-term.

Also of note, the Penguins are projected to be up directly against the salary cap’s $83.5MM Upper Limit to start the year, per CapFriendly. Signing Tatar would likely mean exposing a depth forward such as Alexander Nylander, Vinnie Hinostroza or the recently-acquired Rem Pitlick to waivers.

Free Agent Profile: Tyler Motte

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For the second year in a row, Tyler Motte finds himself unsigned more than a month into unrestricted free agency.  This is the case despite the fact that he fills a role that many contending teams often covet – someone who can play defensive minutes, kill penalties, and play with an edge (without getting into much penalty trouble) while chipping in a bit offensively.

Last summer, despite playing a regular role for the Rangers in the playoffs, it took until just before training camp for the 28-year-old to catch on somewhere when he inked a one-year, $1.35MM deal with Ottawa in mid-September.  The contract garnered him a small raise compared to his previous AAV.

Unfortunately for both Motte and the Senators, things didn’t go too well.  Missing 15 games with a broken finger midseason didn’t help but when he was in the lineup, he wasn’t able to bring each of the elements he typically does to the table.  Specifically, the offense wasn’t there as he managed just three goals in 38 games as part of a bottom-six group that underachieved.

That changed when the Rangers reacquired him prior to the deadline.  Already familiar with the way they play, Motte was able to get some of his scoring touch back, chipping in with five goals and five assists in 24 games down the stretch despite logging just 11 minutes a game.  He wasn’t able to hit the scoresheet in the playoffs but still filled that checking role.

At this point in his career, Motte is a well-known commodity; it isn’t as if there is much left in the way of hidden upside.  But what he provides is something that should result in interest from teams at some point over the coming weeks.

Stats

2022-23: 62 GP, 8-11-19, +3 rating, 6 PIMS, 109 shots, 118 hits, 45.7% CF, 12:34 ATOI
Career: 331 GP, 43-38-81, -19 rating, 82 PIMS, 512 shots, 773 hits, 44.0% CF, 12:52 ATOI

Potential Suitors

For a player like Motte, there are two different types of teams that make sense.  The first is a squad with playoff hopes that is looking to shore up their fourth line or 13th forward spot, aiming to find a small improvement within the margins.  The other is a team that wants one of their younger players to spend more time in the minors and wants that extra bit of depth to act as a buffer.

In the East, Toronto has looked to add some grit this offseason and Motte would continue down that path.  It would need to be a contract for the minimum to work but he’d fill the void that was opened up by them not re-signing Zach Aston-Reese.  His old team in New York could also use him back but with them needing as much cap space as possible to re-sign RFA Alexis Lafreniere, it would need to be a minimum-salary agreement as well.  Boston has rebuilt a good chunk of their bottom six and could stand to add more depth although they’re at a spot where they need to focus on trying to open up some flexibility first.  He’d also fit in on Washington’s fourth line but, you guessed it, they will be restricted to basically the minimum $775K offer as well.

Out West, Motte would give a boost to Nashville’s fourth line and they have enough cap space remaining that they won’t be restricted to just a minimum-salary offer.  Edmonton is expected to try to bring in some low-cost upgrades although they, too, will be restricted to offers for the minimum.  Colorado has a bit more wiggle room to work with from Gabriel Landeskog’s LTIR placement and after their fourth line struggled throughout last season, Motte would give them some reliability on that front.

Projected Contract

At this point of the summer, the bulk of the contracts handed out are going to be at or very close to the league minimum.  Motte hasn’t been in that situation the last few years and it wouldn’t be surprising if he’s holding out hope that a seven-figure deal could still be out there.  Assuming that doesn’t materialize within the next few weeks, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Motte sign for $775K or close to it.  If that happens, whoever gets him will be getting a small bargain.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Snapshots: Dumba, Svechnikov, Halak

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It took more than a month for Matt Dumba to find a new home before inking a one-year, $3.9MM deal with Arizona.  PHNX Sports’ Craig Morgan relays an interesting wrinkle in the contract – the $1.15MM signing bonus he received is actually payable on April 15th, not right away.  It has already been speculated that Dumba could be a trade candidate if the Coyotes aren’t in the playoff picture by then.  The structure of this agreement means that whoever gets him at the deadline in that scenario would actually be the one responsible for paying out the $1.15MM bonus.  There wouldn’t be any additional cap charge for the acquiring team but the cash outlay to acquire Dumba as a midseason rental will be considerably more than it might have seemed at first glance.

Elsewhere around the NHL:

  • In a recent appearance on the NHL Network (video link), Hurricanes GM Don Waddell indicated that winger Andrei Svechnikov is on schedule if not slightly ahead as he works his way back from ACL surgery. The 23-year-old had surgery back in mid-March, a procedure that typically carries a recovery time of six-to-seven months.  Despite the positive news, Waddell stopped short of confirming that Svechnikov will be available on opening night but if that’s not the case, he shouldn’t be out much longer which will give Carolina a big boost after missing one of their top wingers down the stretch and in the playoffs.
  • Earlier this week, Martin Jones signed with Toronto to play what’s likely to be a third-string role. Jaroslav Halak doesn’t appear to be interested in that, telling Tomas Prokop of Dennik Sport that it’s a role he isn’t looking to fill and is focused on trying to land a contract with a team that would give him the backup spot.  The 38-year-old put up a 2.72 GAA with a .903 SV% in 25 games with the Rangers last season but sits five wins shy of 300 for his career, a milestone Halak acknowledged that he’d like to reach in 2023-24.

PHR Mailbag: Bruins, Sharks, Flames, Fedotov, Blue Jackets

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what’s next for Boston, the state of San Jose’s rebuild, and more.  As we’ve done with the last few mailbag submissions, we’ll break it up into three separate columns so if your question doesn’t appear here, check back for it in one of the next two.

SkidRowe: How will the Bruins fare this year? The reigning Presidents Trophy winners are returning with virtually the same defense and goaltending as last year but lost almost a third of their offense due to the departures of Bergeron, Krejci, Hall, Bertuzzi, etc.

I’ll qualify this by saying that I’m not convinced the roster they have today in mid-August is the one we’ll see when the puck drops in October.  I think they have a move coming to help up front.  Not a high-end one with a big-name player but I expect them to upgrade their secondary scoring at some point.  If they do more than I think they will, this prediction could change as a result.

But for now, I have them just missing.  (Which is where I had them last year and look how accurate that prediction turned out…)  Offensively, they’ve taken a couple of steps back which could put them back closer to the middle of the pack.  Not that they needed to outscore a lot of problems last season but a more average attack will take some wins off the board.

Without as much puck control, I’m also a bit concerned about their goaltending.  It would be unrealistic to expect both Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman to have career years again in general but without an offense as dominant, that will also put more pressure on the netminders.  I expect them to still be above average but nowhere near the extent they were last season.  That will take some more wins off the board unless they find a way to play at the same level.

Boston’s roster is still decent, all things considered.  But with Toronto, Florida, and Tampa Bay in the picture, decent isn’t good enough to leapfrog those teams.  I think this could be the year Buffalo puts it together long enough to squeak in and with the depth in the Metropolitan Division, the Atlantic isn’t getting both Wild Card spots.  It wouldn’t shock me if the Bruins found a way to get in but right now, I have them just on the outside looking in.

PyramidHeadcrab: What do you think of the Sharks’ roster after the Karlsson trade, and their future roadmap now that his salary is (mostly) clear?

In terms of what their roster looks like now, my thought is that it’s a roster designed with the intention to try to bottom out.  There’s no way a team is going to improve after losing Brent Burns, Timo Meier, and Erik Karlsson in the span of 13 months.  The fact they opted to move the two veterans in a marketplace that wasn’t exactly favorable for high-priced contracts only cemented the fact that they weren’t looking for a short-term turnaround.

They’re going to struggle to score even with some of the additions they’ve made up front; I think Mikael Granlund could rebound relatively well there but this is still a group that should be at the bottom of the pack offensively.  Defensively, they’re in big trouble as a few of the options on their projected roster are either fringe pieces or overpaid veterans struggling to hang onto a spot.  It wouldn’t surprise me to see the speculated trade with Vancouver happen closer to training camp which would add Tyler Myers but that still wouldn’t move the needle much.  There are questions with both goaltenders as well (although there is also some possible upside) and the end result is a forecast for a painful season.

In terms of a future roadmap, however, it’s relatively clean.  They only have three contracts above $5MM left and around 40% of their roster is on an expiring contract next summer.  That will give GM Mike Grier some flexibility to perhaps get involved as a third-party facilitator in the future to try to restock the prospect cupboards more quickly while flipping some of those expiring deals in the meantime.  The next few years are going to be rough but it’s pretty clear what the plan is.  Getting to this point is the easy part, however.  Building it back up will take some patience and skill to get and develop the right pieces.

Jasen: I am curious about the Flames this year… My gut feeling is that both Lindholm and Backlund will re-sign. My other gut feeling is that Hanifin will be traded. I am thinking a one-for-one for Carolina’s Pesce. Thoughts?

I am also not sold on a bounce-back season from Markstrom. Sure, his stats do demonstrate that he did come back from a bad season before, but I’m still not sold. Markstrom, so I’d ship him to WPG for Hellebuyck. Problem is that we are light on 1st rounders. So Markstrom, 2025 2nd & prospect Zary for Hellebuyck. Thoughts?

I’m with you on Elias Lindholm eventually re-signing.  Mikael Backlund is more of a maybe but I expect an in-season decision on that front.  I also agree that it looks unlikely that Noah Hanifin will be back.

That said, I’m not sure I agree with the proposed trade.  Carolina has a bit of a surplus on the back end so they may not want to take a defender back for whichever one they moved (Brett Pesce or Brady Skjei).  Meanwhile, the impetus for moving Hanifin now would be the contract situation; GM Craig Conroy has said he doesn’t want to run the risk of letting a player go for nothing.  Trading for Pesce doesn’t fix that since he’s on an expiring deal too.  Now, if Pesce comes with a new contract, then sure, this makes more sense for Calgary.  But otherwise, it feels like they need to get an asset back that’s likely to still be there a year from now.

The same concern comes up for your Connor Hellebuyck proposal.  If he isn’t willing to sign an extension, you’ve now moved a quality goalie and a first-round prospect in Connor Zary for a short-term rental.  Perhaps more importantly, you’ve moved those pieces for a rental that might not be enough of a difference-maker to get Calgary back into the playoffs.  What you’ve proposed might be enough on Winnipeg’s end (especially since they’re hoping to avoid a full-scale rebuild) I don’t think the value is there for the Flames.  Sure, there’s an eventual pathway to Dustin Wolf getting a full-time job but there are better ways to accomplish that than this.

I’m more confident than you seem to be about Markstrom bouncing back.  The track record is there and this is a team that still has a pretty good back end as things stand.  If they decide to move him down the road to make room for Wolf, that’s an easier move to make next summer off an improved showing than it is now.

Black Ace57: With the whole ordeal with Ivan Fedotov I was wondering what powers the IIHF has in this dispute and any future disputes between the NHL and KHL until an agreement between the leagues is made again.

I have to admit, I’m a bit unsure about this one as we’re wading in uncharted waters here.  The IIHF is a neutral third party here and since they’re the governing body for most leagues internationally, I suspect there’s some sort of dispute resolution rights within their charter that gives them the authority to do this.

I’m more intrigued to see what happens if the ruling goes in Philadelphia’s favor.  Considering that Russia hasn’t been granted the right to return to international competition, some are already calling for the federation to withdraw from the IIHF.  An unfavorable ruling here could only cement that mindset.  If that happens and the KHL tries to operate independently of everything, let’s just say that could be really interesting to follow.

While we’re on the Fedotov matter, I’m at least a little surprised the Flyers are doing this.  Fedotov is going straight to unrestricted free agency when his tolled deal is played out.  At this point, it seems reasonable to think his intention is to stay in the KHL which would make him a one-and-done player.  Wouldn’t they be better off with his one-and-done cost-controlled year coming when they’re trying to be more competitive?

They already have Carter Hart in place.  The extension they gave to Samuel Ersson (which seemed a bit pricey and a bit too early) suggests they have NHL plans for him next season.  If Fedotov winds up with Philadelphia, now he’s backing up Hart and Ersson is in the minors, putting him on an above-market bridge deal the next year.  There’s sticking up for the principle of the matter but from a team value perspective, they might be better off with a ruling that says he has to play out the KHL deal first and then must fulfill the NHL agreement.

Yzerplan19: Thoughts on what impact Babcock can have on the Blue Jackets? They have a new D group, and some talented players, with a good system could they be in the Wild Card conversation this year? Or next?

I covered Columbus and Babcock a bit in a recent mailbag so I’ll piggyback off those thoughts.  They’ll be better but I don’t see them being in the playoff mix next season.  The Metropolitan is pretty deep as it is and I have a hard time seeing them get around 35 more points than last season.

I’m even a bit iffy on their fortunes for 2024-25.  There is a good young nucleus in place but they’re not near their primes just yet.  I think 2025-26 is the year for them to really turn it around.  By then, that young core will be more established and will have gone through enough of the early growing pains that many young teams face which will have them well-positioned to make a push.

I actually don’t mind the Mike Babcock hire.  Last season was ugly and they need some structure.  Yes, his last few seasons behind an NHL bench weren’t great but he was widely considered a top coach in the past.  A good system, and perhaps more importantly, good structure, should aid in the development of some of their core youngsters.  That should help them improve in the standings and give GM Jarmo Kekalainen a better assessment of what they have and what they still need which is quite important.  But even with the pickups they made on the back end, I don’t see that getting them to the postseason.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Pacific Notes: Zegras, Sharks, Poolman

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Ducks center Trevor Zegras is the most prominent of the 13 remaining restricted free agents.  The 22-year-old is coming off his second straight season of 60-plus points after putting up 23 goals and 42 assists in 81 games and has a track record that could help land him a long-term agreement.  However, Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli suggests (audio link) that the likelier outcome at this point is that the two sides work out a bridge agreement.  The market for a long-term deal is somewhat well-defined at this point with some recent comparables (including Nick Suzuki and Joshua Norris) checking in around the $8MM mark.  If that number doesn’t work for one or both sides, a short-term agreement would likely come in closer to $5MM while giving Zegras arbitration eligibility after it expires.

More from the Pacific:

  • The Sharks had shown interest in defenseman Erik Gustafsson at the beginning in free agency, reports Sheng Peng of San Jose Hockey Now. Had San Jose been able to complete an early Erik Karlsson trade, they likely would have turned to Gustafsson to help replace some of the lost production.  However, the delay in getting the trade done on July 1st resulted in Gustafsson not taking any chances as he instead signed a one-year deal with the Rangers.  San Jose could certainly benefit from adding a blueliner with some offensive ability but at this stage of free agency, those options are quite limited.
  • While it looks like the Canucks will have Tanner Pearson available for training camp, the same can’t be said for defenseman Tucker Poolman. CHEK’s Rick Dhaliwal reported in a recent appearance on Sekeres and Price (Twitter link) that Poolman isn’t cleared to return yet as he continues to deal with concussion symptoms.  The blueliner doesn’t want to retire and has sought out several medical opinions but after playing in just three games last season and the fact the symptoms continue, it’s hard to see him coming back in the near future.  As a result, Poolman and his $2.5MM AAV will remain LTIR-eligible in October when Vancouver has to submit their cap-compliant roster.

No Extension Talks Yet Between Canadiens And Samuel Montembeault

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After last season, Canadiens goaltender Samuel Montembeault and GM Kent Hughes both expressed interest in trying to work out a contract extension.  However, the netminder recently told Simon-Olivier Lorange of La Presse that there have been no discussions on that front at this time.

The 26-year-old is coming off his best NHL performance so far, getting into a career-best 40 games last season while posting a 3.42 GAA and a .901 SV% (also a career-high).  On the surface, those numbers don’t stand out but Montreal used a very young and inexperienced back end last season and his save percentage was ten points better than veteran Jake Allen.

Montembeault’s performance helped to earn him a spot on Canada’s entry at the Worlds back in May.  He quickly locked down the number one and made seven starts, putting up an impressive 1.42 GAA with a .939 SV% to help take home a gold medal.

At the moment, there is a bit of a logjam between the pipes in Montreal with Montembeault and Allen being joined by recent trade acquisition Casey DeSmith.  Prospect Cayden Primeau is also waiver-eligible for the first time as well and could conceivably also be in the mix.  However, it won’t be Montembeault getting moved to make room as Hughes reached out to the netminder’s agent to confirm as much.

Montembeault is entering the final year of his contract which carries an AAV of $1MM.  With a total of just 103 NHL appearances under his belt so far, he likely doesn’t have enough of a track record to command top-level backup money but something in the high-$2MM range or low $3MM range could be doable if he puts together a similar showing in 2023-24.  But with Montreal’s current priority seeming to be trying to flip DeSmith and Jeff Petry (also acquired last weekend), it might be a little while yet before talks on a new deal for Montembeault begin.

Atlantic Notes: Gostisbehere, Robertson, Davies

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The Red Wings added defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere early in free agency to help replace some of the production they lost when they moved Filip Hronek to Vancouver last season.  Ted Kulfan of The Detroit News notes that the blueliner didn’t have a ton of interest on the open market despite recording 92 points in the last two seasons which resulted in him picking the team that he thought gave him the best chance of securing a multi-year agreement next summer, either with Detroit (who gave him a $4.125MM deal) or elsewhere.  That approach worked for Olli Maatta who signed a one-year deal last summer and then inked a two-year extension back in February and it’s one that the 30-year-old Gostisbehere will be looking to follow.

More from the Atlantic:

  • Toronto winger Nick Robertson told TSN’s Mark Masters (video link) that he has fully recovered from his season-ending shoulder surgery in January and will be ready to participate in training camp next month. It has been a rough go for the 21-year-old who has battled injury trouble in each of the last three seasons.  He played in just 17 games last season between the NHL and AHL with 15 of those coming with the Maple Leafs where he had a respectable five points.  This is the final year of Robertson’s entry-level deal and with cap space expected to be limited, his cap hit of less than $800K will certainly help his chances of seeing NHL action in 2023-24.
  • Panthers prospect Josh Davies is on the move in junior as WHL Portland announced that they’ve acquired the forward from Swift Current. The 19-year-old was a sixth-round pick by Florida in 2022 (186th overall) after a 36-point, 119-PIM season.  However, Davies wasn’t able to build on those numbers in 2022-23, recording 20 goals and 14 assists along with 131 penalty minutes.  He’ll be hoping that a fresh start could help him find another gear offensively to try to land an entry-level deal from Florida by the June 1st deadline.

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