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New Jersey Devils Re-Sign Kevin Bahl

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The New Jersey Devils re-signed defenseman Kevin Bahl today to a two-year contract worth $2.1MM with an annual average value of $1.05MM, according to a team release. Bahl will earn $900K in actual salary in 2023-24 and $1.2MM in 2024-25 under the terms of the deal. After signing Bahl, the Devils have re-signed all their restricted free agents this offseason.

A 23-year-old left-shot defender out of New Westminster, British Columbia, Bahl played a career-high 42 games with the Devils last season and largely avoided AHL assignment, skating in only three games in the minors with the Utica Comets. Playing a physical, two-way game by trade, Bahl improved significantly on his previous short NHL stints in 2022-23, continually working his way up the team’s depth chart and playing in 11 of 12 postseason games for the Devils. He finished the regular season with two goals, six assists, eight points, a +4 rating, and 35 penalty minutes.

The hulking 6-foot-6 Bahl now looks to keep his pace and stay in the Devils’ lineup full-time, even with promising prospects like Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec ready (or close to ready) for full-time NHL duties. New Jersey will likely bet on Bahl to replace some of the grit and defensive acumen they lost when Ryan Graves departed for the Pittsburgh Penguins in free agency earlier this month, and they’ll likely increase his ice time from last year’s 14:01 per game in the process. Giving Bahl a seven-figure cap hit certainly demonstrates an organizational belief in the player.

After signing Bahl, CapFriendly projects the Devils to be comfortably cap-compliant with $1.92MM in projected space, assuming a full 23-player roster. This projection assumes youngsters like Hughes and Nolan Foote make the team but not 2020 seventh-overall pick Alexander Holtz. The Devils have $2.575MM in dead cap this season thanks to $2MM wrapped up in the Cory Schneider buyout, a $325K penalty from the Janne Kuokkanen buyout, and the nearly-finished yearly $250K recapture penalty for terminating Ilya Kovalchuk’s supermassive 15-year, $100MM contract in 2013.

When this contract concludes in 2025, Bahl will still be a restricted free agent. He’ll also be eligible for arbitration at that time.

Montreal Canadiens Sign Jesse Ylönen

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The Montreal Canadiens have agreed to terms on a one-year, two-way contract with restricted free agent forward Jesse Ylönen, per a release issued Monday morning. TVA’s Renaud Lavoie reports Ylönen’s NHL salary is $775K, while he’ll earn $200K in the AHL with a $275K minimum salary guarantee.

An early second-round selection of the Canadiens in 2018, the 23-year-old Finn played a career-high 37 games in a Canadiens jersey last season and looks well on his way to becoming a full-timer in the NHL. 2022-23 was a major offensive breakthrough for Ylönen at the NHL and AHL levels. He recorded six goals and 16 points with the Habs and a career-best points pace of 32 in 39 games with the Laval Rocket.

He mostly played a bottom-six scoring role with the Habs last season, sometimes seeing under 10 minutes of ice time per game. However, he did elevate into the team’s top six at times later in the season when injuries struck, actually seeing a fair bit of playing time alongside number-one center Nick Suzuki in the absence of star sniper Cole Caufield, who missed the latter half of the season thanks to shoulder surgery.

Unfortunately for Ylönen, he’s a good prospect on a team with several other youngsters that arguably have higher ceilings. For that reason, he may find himself on the outside looking in on Montreal’s opening night roster, and he could begin the season in the minors with Laval again. He’ll have to battle for ice time with former first-round picks such as Alex Newhook and Juraj Slafkovsky, a race he won’t likely win. However, Ylönen could still unseat a veteran like Joel Armia in the team’s bottom six if he forces the team’s attention at training camp.

Ylönen will be a restricted free agent again in 2024. He will be eligible for arbitration after not being eligible this offseason.

Free Agent Profile: Caleb Jones

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It’s hard to believe it, but the NHL season starts in just over two months. For some NHLers they will soon be making plans to return to their respective cities to begin the upcoming season, for others like defenseman Caleb Jones, his plan is to try to find an NHL job in the next nine weeks.

It was surprising to see Jones go unqualified, as the Chicago Blackhawks elected to let him become a free agent rather than offer him a qualifying offer. Chicago needed to tender the 26-year-old at $1.35MM, but he was made a free agent when Chicago didn’t make the offer. Now, almost a month into free agency Jones remains unsigned, a somewhat surprising development for a player who has shown promise in his young career.

Jones, the younger brother of Blackhawks defenseman Seth Jones, was originally drafted by the Edmonton Oilers in the fourth round back in 2015 and played 93 games over parts of three seasons with the club before he was traded to Chicago in July 2021 as part of the Duncan Keith trade. Jones then dressed in 124 games over the past two years with the Blackhawks, putting up 9 goals and 22 assists.

Last year was a career year for Jones, as he had four goals and 12 assists in 73 games while playing over 19 minutes a night. Jones was tasked with playing second-pairing minutes on a very bad Chicago team and faired well despite not contributing much offensively. Jones led the defense core in many analytical categories and did a decent job controlling the play when he was on the ice.

Jones has typically demonstrated a good ability to move the puck well, utilizing his skating to push the puck up the ice and can keep himself mobile in the defensive zone to be a disruptive force on both the penalty kill and at even strength. However, he is not his older brother and doesn’t possess nearly the offensive acumen that Seth has displayed throughout his career.

The issue that Jones may face when trying to lock down an NHL job is that there is a bit of a surplus of left-shot depth defensemen in the NHL. Pittsburgh has Ty Smith and Pierre-Olivier Joseph competing for one spot on their third pairing, as do the Calgary Flames, with Oliver Kylington now returning after a one-year absence. The Ottawa Senators have several solid left-shot options throughout their NHL lineup, as do many other teams. For Jones, he could offer a solid third-pairing option, but there are very few teams who need that right now.

Stats

2022-23: 73 GP, 4-14-16, -19 rating, 40 PIMS, 86 shots, 48.9% CF, 19:13 ATOI
Career: 217 GP, 14-36-50, -39 rating, 80 PIMS, 225 shots, 48.1% CF, 16:49 ATOI

Potential Suitors

Jones would have teams lining up for his services if he was a right-shot defenseman, but he shoots left and typically plays the left side. While his market will be small, there are sure to be teams that could find a role for the younger Jones brother.

In the East, the Buffalo Sabres have Ilya Lyubushkin slated to play as a third bottom-pair left-side defenseman, and while he offers a physical element and does a good job suppressing scoring chances, he is not a good puck mover and isn’t particularly adept at much else. Jones could push Lyubushkin and create healthy competition for playing time in the Sabres defense core. The one barrier for Jones to Buffalo could be that the Sabres have already brought in Erik Johnson and Connor Clifton in free agency, and management may feel that they’ve already brought in enough competition on their back end.

In the West, The Anaheim Ducks have brought in a few NHL veterans to try and give guidance to their young stars. While Radko Gudas will bring some leadership and physicality on the back end, the Ducks could use a few more veterans who can teach their young players to become good pros. Jones could be a solid fit for the role as he has already played on a young, bad, rebuilding team and knows the challenges and tribulations that come with the growing pains of a rebuild.

Sticking with the West, another rebuilding club that could use some help on the backend is the San Jose Sharks. The Sharks aren’t pushing to make the playoffs this year, but that doesn’t mean they should stop looking for improvements. At the moment, the Sharks have 30-year-old journeyman Jacob MacDonald penciled in as their third pairing left side defenseman and Marc-Édouard Vlasic on their second pair. Vlasic was a terrific shutdown defender for a long time, but he has seen notable declines in his game for the past five years or so. Jones would likely offer an upgrade on both men while not costing San Jose much in the way of assets.

Projected Contract

Unfortunately for Jones, he is most likely going to be taking a pay cut from the $1.35MM he made last season. There should be a small market for his services as the season nears, but the native of Arlington, Texas, might have to sign a professional try-out to get teams interested in his services. Matt Dumba and Ethan Bear are both still unrestricted and might attract more interest as they are right-shot defensemen and have better track records. Jones should ultimately be able to find an NHL deal, but when he does, it will likely come in around the league minimum or a tick above it. There were many NHL defensemen who found deals late in the summer last year, and it seems that could happen again this summer with Jones.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Philadelphia Flyers Submit Ivan Fedotov’s Contract Should Be Tolled

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TSN hockey insider Darren Dreger is reporting that the Philadelphia Flyers and the NHL have submitted to the International Ice Hockey Federation that goaltender Ivan Fedotov’s contract with the Flyers should be tolled since he missed this past season to complete military service in Russia. The Flyers along with the league are arguing that because he missed the entire season, the original one-year contract he signed in May 2022 should not be considered expired until next July, since he never fulfilled the agreement. The IIHF is presently considering the submission. The word tolled is a legal term written into many sports contracts that allows for the pausing or delaying of the running of the period of time set forth by a contract.

It’s been quite the saga for the 26-year-old netminder that began over a year ago. Fedotov was arrested in Russia two months after signing his contract with the Flyers. He served a year of military service and on June 14th of this year, the Flyers announced that the one-year deal would be applied this upcoming season and they would retain his NHL rights. Shortly after that in early July, the KHL announced a two-year deal for the netminder with CSKA that was recognized by the league because they believed that Fedotov did not have a valid and binding contract with an NHL club for next year.

While Fedotov is stuck between two leagues wondering what his future will be, CAA Sports’ JP Barry issued a statement today saying that he had spoken with Fedotov and that the young netminder would abide by the IIHF’s ruling that will decide which of the two contracts is valid. It’s an unusual and difficult situation for a player that has said that he just wants to get back to playing hockey. Fedotov has stated publicly that he was able to play hockey twice a week during his military service, but that the hockey in the army wasn’t very good. Fedotov has also defended his decision to sign was CSKA saying that they are a top club and would give him an opportunity to return to form before fulfilling his dream of playing in the NHL.

From the Flyers’ perspective, they would obviously welcome the addition of Fedotov to their goaltending depth chart. The club made Fedotov their seventh-round pick back in 2015, and while it has been almost a decade since they drafted him, they’d seen enough from him to warrant an entry-level contract last year. Now, the Flyers and the league are in a battle that could set a precedent going forward since the KHL and NHL don’t currently have any kind of Memorandum of Understanding. The two leagues did have such an agreement up until last year which kept teams from poaching signed players out of the other league, however, the NHL suspended the agreement.

Snapshots: Gauthier, Kessel, Lindberg

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Philadelphia Flyers prospect Cutter Gauthier made some headlines earlier this summer when he was absent for the Flyers’ development camp shortly after the 2023 NHL draft. Gauthier offered some explanation for his choice today, telling NHL.com’s Adam Kimelman that he had played “a little bit too much hockey” after his college season and representing the United States at the IIHF Men’s World Championships. Gauthier added that he “wanted time with the family,” and although it wasn’t Flyers GM Danny Briere’s “favorite thing” Gauthier felt it was the right option.

Although Gauthier is no longer the Flyers’ number-one prospect due to the team drafting Matvei Michkov seventh overall at this year’s draft, Gauthier remains their best prospect who has a chance to play center. His absence at development camp shouldn’t be cause for any Flyers fan to worry that Gauthier will play out his college eligibility and hit free agency as other players, such as Adam Fox, have in the past, though. Gauthier told Kimelman that it’s “definitely the plan” to play for Philadelphia at the end of Boston College’s upcoming season, and after scoring 16 goals and 37 points last season Gauthier is expected to be one of college hockey’s top players on a Boston team that is set to see significant talent arrive in the fall, such as top 2023 picks Will Smith, Ryan Leonard, and Gabe Perreault.

Some other notes from across the NHL:

  • Pittsburgh Penguins president of hockey operations Kyle Dubas is no stranger to working with elite women’s hockey players, such as Hall of Famer Hayley Wickenheiser who worked as senior director of player development with the Toronto Maple Leafs during Dubas’ tenure there. Now, Dubas is adding another top name to his staff in Pittsburgh. Amanda Kessel, an Olympic gold medalist and the sister of former Penguins star Phil Kessel has reportedly been promoted to a role titled “special assistant to president of hockey operations and general manager” according to Seth Rorabaugh of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Although it’s unclear what her exact responsibilities will be this reported promotion means Kessel will have a hand in shaping the Penguins’ future as they chase one last Stanley Cup with Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang.
  • Former Ottawa Senators and Toronto Maple Leafs prospect Tobias Lindberg, once a star OHLer with the Oshawa Generals, has signed a contract in Germany with the Crimmitschau Ice Pirates. The 28-year-old 2013 fourth-round pick has played the last two seasons in Czechia, but struggled to produce. He’s been most productive in the past at the HockeyAllsvenskan level in his native Sweden, so perhaps this move to the second tier of German hockey will see him score at a rate closer to what he posted in his junior hockey days.

Examining An Upcoming Winnipeg Jets Roster Crunch

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Despite seeing some high-profile players depart their franchise this offseason, including former captain Blake Wheeler and second-line center Pierre-Luc Dubois, the Winnipeg Jets have every intention of returning to the playoffs in 2023-24.

Although netminder Connor Hellebuyck’s name has appeared in trade rumors this summer, he currently appears more likely than not to begin the season in Winnipeg, meaning head coach Rick Bowness and his staff will have an elite goaltender behind them as they begin another contention-oriented season.

One area the Jets may still have to resolve this offseason is their defense. As things currently stand, the Jets not only have a point-per-game blueliner in Josh Morrissey leading their group, they also boast some impressive depth. The Jets have ten defensemen under legitimate consideration for an NHL job in the fall, but are likely to only be able to staff seven or eight on their 23-man active roster.

This isn’t a situation for some of the Jets’ defensemen to worry about. Morrissey’s spot at the top of their lineup, for example, is assured. Seeing as they each make nearly $6MM annually on their contracts, Nate Schmidt and Neal Pionk are unlikely to go anywhere given how hard it is to move money in today’s flat-cap environment.

The two 2024 unrestricted free agents, veterans Brenden Dillon and Dylan DeMelo, are each possible candidates to be moved in theory, but in reality are likely staying put.

Each played an important role in the Jets’ 2022-23 success and it’s likely that if the Jets had designs on trading one of those two veterans the deal would have been completed already.

That makes five slots on the roster already spoken for, leaving two or three roster spots left to be claimed.

In contention for those spots is 24-year-old Dylan Samberg, who broke into the NHL and played 63 games last season, six-foot-seven 2016 first-round pick Logan Stanley, AHL star Declan Chisholm, veteran Kyle Capobianco, and 2019 first-rounder Ville Heinola. At the outset, Samberg looks to be the overwhelming favorite to claim the sixth and final spot in Bowness’ opening-night lineup.

The Jets invested a second-round pick to draft Samberg in 2017 and he has developed at a steady rate since that point. He played three seasons of college hockey at the University of Minnesota-Duluth before turning pro in 2020-21.

He spent his rookie pro season as an AHL regular, the next year on the NHL/AHL bubble, and finally last season fully on the NHL roster. Samberg played as a penalty-killing specialist number-six defenseman last season, averaging just 14:55 TOI per game overall but 1:59 on the penalty kill, third-most among Jets blueliners.

With Samberg playing quite a bit short-handed the Jets had a top-ten penalty kill league-wide, so it stands to reason that the Jets would be interested in Samberg maintaining his regular role there in order to help ensure similar short-handed success next season. That leaves Heinola, Stanley, Capobianco, and Chisholm battling in training camp for one or two spots as a press box regular in Winnipeg.

That’s a position Capobianco, 25, occupied for all of last season. He only played in 14 games for Winnipeg but didn’t see a single minute in the AHL. He spent most of the season a healthy scratch, which suggests the Jets are more comfortable with a player like Capobianco regularly sitting out games than a higher-upside blueliner whose development the team may be more invested in. That could give Capobianco a leg up in retaining his NHL status for next season, though there are complicating factors.

One complicating factor is the presence of Stanley, a player who reportedly made a trade request back in March. Stanley’s requested trade has not materialized, and he could be in line to see his role on the Jets decline even further than it did in 2022-23. Stanley played 58 NHL games in 2021-22 but saw that number decline to just 19 this past season. Stanley hasn’t played in the AHL since 2019-20 and would need to clear waivers to be sent to the AHL’s Manitoba Moose.

As a player who offers rare size and has first-round pedigree, the Jets would not be blamed for hesitating to expose Stanley to waivers and risk losing him for nothing. But seeing as he has seemingly fallen out of favor in Winnipeg and may no longer be in their future plans, can the franchise justify Stanley claiming one of the NHL roster spots above another defenseman such as Heinola, Capobianco, or Chisholm?

Heinola remains waivers-exempt for another season, so despite headlines devoted to the player’s dissatisfaction with how scarce his chances to establish himself as an NHLer have been he remains the likeliest candidate to remain in the AHL to start another season.

Heinola is clearly an accomplished talent at that level (he scored 37 points in 48 games last season) but one wonders if yet another season playing AHL hockey is best for his development compared to being able to test himself against the fires of NHL competition.

Regardless, since Heinola is waivers-exempt it would in all likelihood take a trade or a stunning performance in preseason for Heinola to make the NHL roster out of camp, since Winnipeg would be promoting him at the cost of waiving another player.

That leaves Chisholm, 23, in the best position to threaten Capobianco and/or Stanley’s position in the NHL. Chisholm is no longer waivers-exempt and given his exemplary performance in the AHL (43 points in 59 games) he is a genuine candidate to be of interest to clubs high in the waiver priority.

The Jets drafted Chisholm in 2018 and have developed him in Manitoba for three seasons, meaning it would definitely sting to put all that work into growing a player only to see another NHL club reap the fruits of that labor during 2023-24.

The sting they’d feel would be almost identical to what the organization must have felt watching Johnathan Kovacevic carve out a spot as an NHL regular with the Montreal Canadiens last season. The Jets spent a 2017 third-round pick to draft Kovacevic and oversaw his development both in college and in the AHL for a half-decade.

The Jets’ extensive effort developing Kovacevic culminated in the franchise receiving two NHL games from Kovacevic before losing him on waivers. Because the team opted to roster other defencemen over Kovacevic, the Canadiens appear to have a quality defensive defensemen on their hands at a remarkably affordable $766k cap charge through 2024-25.

That’s a genuinely valuable asset to have, and the Jets are unlikely to want to put themselves in that position again, possibly handing another club a valuable defenseman for a second consecutive year. As a result, it seems the likeliest outcome is Capobianco is waived, Heinola is sent to the AHL, and both Stanley and Chisholm are rostered in the NHL.

But unless a trade is completed before opening night, the uncertainty of waivers will hang above the heads of Jets decision-makers as they ponder how to construct their NHL roster. If nothing else, the success of Chisholm and the presence of waivers will make the battle for the Jets’ final one or two defensive roster spots one of the most intriguing storylines to watch in the NHL preseason process.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Maple Leafs’ Rodion Amirov Reportedly Making Progress In Cancer Recovery

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One of the scariest pieces of NHL news in recent memory came across the wire in February 2022, when then-Toronto Maple Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas revealed that 2020 first-round pick Rodion Amirov had been diagnosed with a brain tumor. The 21-year-old winger has not played hockey since and continues on a long road to what is hopefully a full recovery.

There hasn’t been much news on Amirov’s health since the end of last year when Amirov came to Toronto to attend the team’s Hockey Fights Cancer night in November but returned to Russia to continue treatment shortly after and could not train. At the time, it was viewed as a setback in his recovery – Amirov had said in an interview earlier that summer he was hoping to return to the ice by that time.

However, there is some positive news regarding the young forward’s health today. Rinat Bashirov, the director of sport for Amirov’s KHL team, Salavat Yulaev Ufa, told Russian outlet Sport-Express that there’s a “positive trend” in Amirov’s recovery, but he’s continuing treatment. According to Bashirov (albeit a translated quote), Ufa believes Amirov will return to the ice at some point, although there’s no clear timeline.

Amirov reportedly signed a one-year contract extension with Ufa earlier this summer, allowing him to remain closely tied with the club and pursue treatment with their guidance. He also remains under contract with the Maple Leafs, although his three-year, entry-level contract expires next summer.

PHR extends its best wishes for Amirov’s long-term health and positive recovery.

Coyotes, Jack McBain Reach Pre-Arbitration Settlement

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The Arizona Coyotes and young center Jack McBain have reached a two-year settlement ahead of their scheduled arbitration hearing today, according to a team release. The deal earns him $1.6MM per season, per Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman.

This settlement is a win for the Coyotes, who get the two-year contract they desired and a cap hit below the midpoint of the team and player filings submitted Friday before today’s planned hearing. The Coyotes had filed for a two-year, $1.2MM AAV deal, while McBain filed for a one-year, $2.25MM contract, putting the salary midpoint at $1.725MM.

McBain, 23, brings an intriguing blend of size and two-way potential to the bottom of the Coyotes’ lineup. Standing at 6-foot-4 and 218 pounds, Arizona acquired McBain’s signing rights from the Minnesota Wild in March 2022 after McBain informed the Wild he wouldn’t be signing with them after finishing his collegiate career at Boston College.

The Toronto-born center had a ten-game stint with the Coyotes to end the 2021-22 campaign in which he didn’t look entirely out of place, recording two goals and adding an assist on the heels of a point-per-game season in college and an Olympic appearance for Canada. That late-season experience in the NHL gave him a leg up heading into 2022-23, where he played in all 82 games as a rookie and finished 12th on the team in points with 26 and eighth in goals with 12.

Arizona now has a bit of a logjam at center, though, with youngsters Barrett Hayton and Logan Cooley and veterans Nick Bjugstad and Travis Boyd, meaning McBain is likely once again slated for a fourth-line role next season, potentially even on the wing. He did post a somewhat subpar faceoff win rate of 44% last season, although the whole team wasn’t adept in that department – only Hayton posted a win rate higher than 50% out of the team’s four everyday centers.

CapFriendly has not registered McBain’s deal at the time of writing, but once it is, Arizona will have roughly $7.15MM in cap space with a full roster of 23 players, per their projection.

As PHNX Sports’ Craig Morgan points out, it’s also worth noting that the Coyotes are now in a rather tricky position regarding their total registered contracts within the organization. They’re now at 49 out of the 50-contract maximum and still have restricted free agent Jan Jeník to sign to a deal, which, if he’s signed, would leave them without the ability to make any player acquisitions without getting rid of a contract (e.g., waiver claims, free agent signings).

McBain will again be a restricted free agent with arbitration rights when his new contract expires in 2025.

PHNX Sports’ Craig Morgan was the first to report the two sides were close to a settlement.

Arbitration Breakdown: Trent Frederic

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We’re entering the final few days of the salary arbitration calendar, meaning most of the remaining notable restricted free agents will have contracts in place for next season by the end of next week. There are a number of notable cases that remain unsettled, including a pair of high-end young goalies in the Boston Bruins’ Jeremy Swayman and the Minnesota Wild’s Filip Gustavsson. Swayman’s hearing is today, meaning we’ll learn his contractual fate for next season on Tuesday. However, there’s a teammate of Swayman’s and an important depth piece for the Bruins facing an arbitration hearing of his own – forward Trent Frederic, who now has just 48 hours remaining until his arbitration hearing on Tuesday.

Filings

Team: two years, $1.4MM AAV
Player: one year, $2.9MM AAV
Midpoint: $2.15MM AAV

(via Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman)

The Numbers

2022-23 was a breakout year for Frederic, recording career highs in offensive categories across the board. While he may not be a long-term top-flight center solution as the Bruins envisioned when they selected him 29th overall in 2016, the 25-year-old has grown into an extremely effective bottom-six power forward. His scoring skyrocketed this season despite not seeing a major increase in ice time, and he didn’t sacrifice the solid defensive play he’d shown in his two prior full NHL seasons. His 17 goals were sixth on the powerhouse Bruins last year despite playing under 12 minutes per game.

If advanced analytics hold any bearing in arbitration hearings, Frederic’s side should use them to their advantage. Many of his possession-based metrics indicate his production this season isn’t a fluke, as his ability to drive play has steadily grown during his time in the NHL. However, it is fair to wonder if an increase in ice time (and, therefore, tougher matchups) may diminish his effectiveness slightly. It’s an important factor to take into consideration, as Frederic is expected to play a bigger role on the Bruins next season with wing depth like Taylor Hall and Tyler Bertuzzi no longer on the team.

His NHL career doesn’t carry a terribly long track record, though, something that may give the arbitrator some pause. Frederic hasn’t cracked the 200-game mark in his career, and he only transformed into an everyday NHLer this season, oftentimes being healthy scratched at points throughout the 2020-21 and 2021-22 campaigns.

2022-23 Stats: 79 GP, 17-14-31, +28 rating, 57 PIMs, 120 shots, 11:55 ATOI
Career Stats: 198 GP, 29-25-54, +25 rating, 194 PIMs, 284 shots, 11:27 ATOI

Potential Comparables

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used. The contracts below fit within those parameters. Player salaries also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides of Frederic’s negotiation. 

Philipp Kurashev (Blackhawks) – Kurashev is a few years younger than Frederic but has a similar amount of NHL experience. Like Frederic, he also posted career-highs in offensive categories last season but had less production and infinitely worse defensive results. However, Kurashev was relied upon to play heavy minutes (more than 17 minutes per game) for a lottery Blackhawks team – likely more responsibility than he was fit to handle. An arbitrator awarded Kurashev a $2.25MM AAV last week, coming in above the midpoint of Boston’s and Frederic’s filings. Given Frederic’s better scoring and two-way play but extremely sheltered minutes, this could fall close to the arbitrator’s final decision here.

Warren Foegele (Hurricanes) – This comparison may be a bit dated (Foegele had his arbitration award in November 2020), but played a much more similar role on the Hurricanes to Frederic’s on the Bruins than in the Kurashev comparison outlined above. After a season in which Foegele registered similar offensive production to Frederic (30 points in 68 games), an arbitrator awarded him a $2.15MM deal for the 2020-21 campaign. It presents a solid argument for the arbitrator to rule right down the middle of Boston’s and Frederic’s filings.

Artturi Lehkonen (Canadiens) – Lehkonen had filed for arbitration with the Canadiens in the summer of 2021, but the two sides came to a pre-hearing agreement on a one-year deal worth $2.3MM. Lehkonen was the same age as Frederic at the time of signing and produced similarly strong two-way results, although Lekhonen had significantly more NHL experience at the time of signing, with 338 games under his belt. However, he was coming off a down season – just seven goals and 13 points in 47 games, hurting his stock.

Projection

No matter what, it does seem Frederic will be signing a two-year contract unless the arbitrator awards significantly in his favor. As Frederic was the party that filed for arbitration, Boston is free to choose between a one-year or two-year pact based on the AAV awarded by the arbitrator. The contract would walk Frederic directly to unrestricted free agency, but it’s something Boston is evidently comfortable with based on their filing.

The comparisons outlined place Frederic’s likely award very near to but likely slightly above the midpoint of $2.15MM. It seems unlikely the arbitrator would go any higher than $2.5MM on an award, though, especially considering his limited ice time and consistent fourth-line role. Regardless, it’s likely he’ll more than double his $1.05MM salary from the last two seasons.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

West Notes: Oilers, Wild, Blackhawks

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The Edmonton Oilers have been one of the NHL’s more interesting teams to watch over the past decade, finally overcoming years of what could best be described as dysfunctionality to once again become yearly postseason contenders on the backs of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. That’s not to say it hasn’t been a rough-and-tumble road for the team since making their first playoff appearance with this core in 2017 – there’s still the sense this core hasn’t lived up to expectations without a Stanley Cup Final appearance to show for their rather electrifying success at times. Today, David Staples of the Edmonton Journal argued that, for whatever reason you choose to believe, the Oilers’ rather stagnant offseason is a sign of better things to come.

It didn’t really matter this summer if the Oilers and general manager Ken Holland wanted to make a big splash – they simply couldn’t make anything work with an airtight salary cap situation and RFAs Evan Bouchard and Ryan McLeod to re-sign. Staples illustrates this example with past Oilers teams of the 1980s glory days, but championship-caliber teams are rarely built through major free agency additions. Keeping a similar core intact and nurturing it, giving it time to grow while continuing to develop chemistry, has led to positive results in the past.

Despite the mounting pressure to perform in Edmonton, the sky isn’t falling – they’ve lost to the eventual Stanley Cup champion in back-to-back seasons and have put up good performances against great teams in both runs, especially during their Battle of Alberta win against the Calgary Flames in 2022. Consistency between the pipes remains an issue, though, perhaps the most impossible problem to solve for any team in the league.

More tidbits to end this Saturday night from around the Western Conference:

  • While forward Oskar Sundqvist was visibly elated to return to the St. Louis Blues this offseason in free agency, the club with which he won a Stanley Cup championship in 2019, it wasn’t the only option for his future he had in mind. In an interview with The Athletic’s Jeremy Rutherford earlier this week, Sundqvist revealed he greatly enjoyed his post-trade deadline stint with the Minnesota Wild, and there was mutual interest in an extension to keep him in the State of Hockey. However, there wasn’t a feasible way to keep him around with a heavy salary cap crunch on Minnesota’s end, thanks to nearly $15MM in dead cap caused by the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyouts. Sundqvist did end up signing a league-minimum one-way contract with the Blues, however, who were also in a tight financial situation after acquiring center Kevin Hayes at a reduced price from the Philadelphia Flyers. Sundqvist did well in Minnesota, posting seven points in 15 games down the stretch before injuries kept him out of most of their First Round playoff loss against the Dallas Stars.
  • The Chicago Blackhawks’ ownership is adding a junior hockey powerhouse to their portfolio in the USHL’s Chicago Steel, according to a report from The Athletic’s Scott Powers. The Steel are arguably the most recognizable franchise in American top-flight junior hockey, capturing the league’s regular-season title four seasons in a row and churning out high-end NHL prospects such as projected 2024 first-overall pick Macklin Celebrini and Columbus Blue Jackets star center prospect Adam Fantilli in the process. It’s a major move for the Blackhawks’ parent, the Wirtz Corporation, just days after principal owner and chairman Rocky Wirtz passed away unexpectedly at the age of 70.

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