Archives for July 2023

Transaction Retrospective: Tkachuk To Panthers

July 22, 2023 at 5:34 pm CDT | by Brennan McClain 2 Comments

One year ago today, the Calgary Flames and Florida Panthers connected on a blockbuster trade, sending Matthew Tkachuk to the Panthers, while Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar were sent to Alberta. At the time of the trade, the public learned that Tkachuk had signed an extension with the Panthers, while Huberdeau and Weegar would each sign eight-year contract extensions of their own with the Flames.

At the time of the trade, Calgary was often considered to be the winner by most experts, acquiring a forward that had just surpassed the season-high in assists by a left-winger, as well as a quality top-four defender in Weegar. On the other hand, Tkachuk was coming off a 104-point season in his own right and was set to join the defending President’s Trophy champions.

Hindsight being 20/20, it is now more clear who is projected to win the trade. Although the Flames finished with one more point than the Panthers to end the 2022-23 NHL season, both teams went on different trajectories. Calgary was unable to qualify for the playoffs in the Western Conference, while Florida went on an unprecedented run to the Stanley Cup Final as a wild-card team.

Both Huberdeau and Weegar experienced drops in play with their new team, as Huberdeau saw his point total from a year prior take a 60-point drop, only earning 55 points on the year this past season. Playing primarily as a playmaker, Huberdeau’s production took a descent without the presence of Aleksander Barkov in the middle of the rink.

Originally, Weegar also started off slow for the Flames, only scoring 18 points in his first 60 games with the team. However, in the last 20 games of the season, Weegar improved tremendously, scoring three goals and 10 assists to end the regular season.

Unlike both Huberdeau and Weegar, Tkachuk thrived on his new team. In 79 games this season, Tkachuk scored 40 goals and 69 assists, topping his career totals in assists and points. In the playoffs, he kept the competitive energy soaring, scoring 11 goals and 13 assists in 20 playoff games.

Tkachuk quickly became both the offensive and emotional leader for the Panthers, willing them to the Stanley Cup Final this past season. As new General Manager, Craig Conroy, takes the reins on the front office of the Flames, it will be interesting to see how this trade plays out long-term.

There is always a probability that the Huberdeau and Weegar take a massive jump in production next season, but Tkachuk taking his team within striking distance of the Stanley Cup will be difficult to beat. A year later, it is safe to say that the Panthers were on the winning end of the bargain.

Free Agent Profile: Matt Dumba

July 22, 2023 at 4:00 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 1 Comment

Generally speaking, impact defensemen are snapped up quickly in free agency. However, now three weeks into the open market, Mathew Dumba remains without a contract which comes as a bit of a surprise.

Back in 2018, the 28-year-old was coming off a breakout year, one that saw him put up 50 points while logging nearly 24 minutes a night. It looked as if he was well on his way to becoming a long-term, top-pairing piece for Minnesota. However, he battled injury trouble the following year and since then, things haven’t gone as well.

Dumba has yet to reach the 30-point plateau since his career year and was basically taken off the power play entirely last season. Despite that, he has continually logged heavy minutes for the Wild and entered free agency as arguably the top right-shot defender available after Damon Severson reached a sign-and-trade deal with Columbus, taking his name off the free agent list in the process.

But despite that status and what has still been a pretty successful career thus far, Dumba remains unsigned. It’s a situation where he might have to wait for another domino to fall before his market really opens up as well.

Stats

2022-23: 79 GP, 4-10-14, -8 rating, 81 PIMS, 99 shots, 116 blocks, 49.0% CF, 21:17 ATOI
Career: 598 GP, 79-157-236, +29 rating, 399 PIMS, 1,121 shots, 699 blocks, 49.1% CF, 20:37 ATOI

Potential Suitors

There are a couple of potential types of suitors for Dumba’s services. There will be some that strike out in the Erik Karlsson sweepstakes that will turn around and pivot to Dumba to try to land at least a top-four addition. Alternatively, if the market isn’t to Dumba’s liking, he’s a strong candidate to sign a one-year pillow contract with an eye on boosting his value, possibly being moved at the deadline, and hitting the market again next summer in a more favorable cap environment.

In the East, Toronto showed interest in him early before pivoting to former teammate John Klingberg. While making the money would be tricky, they’re believed to have shown interest in Karlsson so new GM Brad Treliving appears to have some sort of plan to get creative to make the money work. Dumba might not be a great long-term fit in Detroit but they have enough cap space for a one-year agreement that would go a long way toward helping their playoff chances. With Carolina sniffing around on Karlsson, it stands to reason that Dumba could be an option there as well assuming they can open up the cap space to do so. If he’s willing to sign for the type of money that Brett Pesce (a UFA next summer) isn’t, there could be a long-term fit.

Out West, the Coyotes have been linked to Dumba since the market opened up. They have a definite need to add on the back end and could be a fit either on a pillow deal or a longer-term agreement where he becomes a key part of their core group. Depending on what happens with Karlsson and if they take a right-shot defender back as part of a return, the Sharks could be a fit for both options as well. If Nashville is looking to stay in the playoff mix, Dumba would help solidify their top four and they have the cap space to sign him without needing to make another move. If Anaheim wants to do like they did with Klingberg a year ago, the Ducks could be a viable landing spot for a one-year deal with the hopes that this one would turn out better than the deal with Klingberg ultimately did.

Projected Contract

Dumba slotted in 18th on our Top 50 UFA Rankings with a projected contract of four years at an AAV of $5.25MM. At this point in time, it seems fair to suggest that a deal of that value hasn’t been on the table yet; otherwise, he likely would have taken it. It’s possible that Dumba could still reach that price tag but only on a one-year deal. Otherwise, a longer-term agreement might check in closer to the $4MM mark. If Dumba believes a change of scenery could help him rediscover his offensive touch, he might be better off taking a one-year agreement and then aiming for a better longer-term deal than he could get now in 2024 when there should be more money to spend in free agency.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Atlantic Notes: Olofsson, Seider, Raymond, Bouchard

July 22, 2023 at 1:41 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 2 Comments

Earlier this offseason, Sabres winger Victor Olofsson and his representatives expected a trade to be coming at some point before training camp. However, Lance Lysowski of The Buffalo News suggests that a move involving the 28-year-old is a lot less likely now thanks to the Achilles injury to Jack Quinn that will keep the youngster out for at least the first two months of the season. Olofsson is now in the final year of his contract which carries a $4.75MM AAV which, in itself, makes a trade difficult despite coming off a year that saw him collect 28 goals, a new career high. With Quinn out for a while, Olofsson could lock down a spot a little higher in the lineup after seeing time on the fourth line last season which would give him a chance to be a productive piece for Buffalo in the early going in 2023-24.

PHR Mailbag: Playoffs, Bruins, Fabbri, Depth, Blue Jackets, Bonuses

July 22, 2023 at 11:49 am CDT | by Brian La Rose 4 Comments

Topics in this edition of the mailbag include the potential fit in Boston for a pair of key rental centers, fair expectations for a new-look Blue Jackets squad, rules surrounding bonuses, and more. If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag while there will also be one that runs tomorrow.

PyramidHeadcrab: Considering the changes brought by the draft and UFA day, what are some teams you see making the playoffs in 2024 that weren’t really in the picture in 2023? And what are some teams you see missing the playoffs?

And who are your favorite three teams to finish with the highest draft lottery odds?

I tackled a similar question to this one last month before free agency so let’s check in on those teams and see what has changed.

In the East, I had Ottawa, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo as playoff candidates among those that missed a year ago. As things stand, I’m not as bullish on the Sens now as I was then as I’m not overly confident that Joonas Korpisalo is going to move the needle enough in goal and their offense has taken a step back for the time being. The Penguins have improved its roster this summer so I still expect them to jump back in and while the Sabres haven’t done much, they’ve added to their back end and can rely on internal growth up front to bolster their chances. I think they still get in.

As for my candidates to miss, I had Florida, the Islanders, and possibly Tampa Bay. The Panthers have added some depth which helps but their question will be how impactful their early-season injuries will be. I’m leaning more toward them being in now, however. New York didn’t exactly improve or get worse so they’ll probably be just in or just out. The Lightning are definitely weaker and while I’m not ready to proclaim they’re a non-playoff team yet, I think they’re vulnerable. I could see Boston missing out now unless their goaltending tandem is able to play at a similar level next season; that would be the great equalizer after losing a lot of firepower.

As for the West, I had Vancouver getting in and maybe St. Louis. The Canucks have mostly stayed quiet this summer and that’s not necessarily a bad thing. On paper, they’re a better team than their record has been and if they play up to their potential, they’re a playoff-caliber squad. I like what the Blues have done, getting Kevin Hayes on the cheap and adding Oskar Sundqvist for the minimum. I’m still skeptical that they’ll get in but they’re better than they were a few weeks ago.

My main candidate to miss from the West a few weeks ago was Winnipeg and that hasn’t really changed. They’re a weaker team than they were before with an expectation of two more key players moving between now and the trade deadline. That’s probably not a good recipe to make the playoffs. Since I had to pick two teams a month ago, my other one was Seattle. They haven’t done much one way or the other so they’re still a bubble team in my books.

On the other end of the scale, I have Philadelphia in the bottom three as they’re going to go through some growing pains. San Jose doesn’t have a great roster and if they move Erik Karlsson in a trade that likely won’t bring back much win-now help, they’re going to struggle. As for the third team, I’m not really too confident in this one but I’ll say Anaheim with the assumption that John Gibson gets moved. With weak goaltending, that will offset some improvements from their young core, keeping them near the bottom again.

SkidRowe: What would it take to bring Mark Scheifele or Elias Lindholm to the Bruins?

For the purposes of this answer, I’m going to operate under the assumption that it’s an extend-and-trade agreement for both players. As straight rentals, I don’t think Boston should be pursuing them, at least at this point.

For Scheifele, I think their best shot at getting him is if (or when, perhaps) Connor Hellebuyck gets moved. Winnipeg is looking for win-now pieces in the hopes of avoiding a rebuild. I don’t think they’d have a lot of interest in Linus Ullmark (who might have the Jets on his partial no-trade list anyway) but Jeremy Swayman would be an intriguing piece. If the two moves are made concurrently, the team that gets Hellebuyck could theoretically move the center back for Hellebuyck with Boston’s package for Scheifele being headlined by a controllable young starter in Swayman.

Cap-wise, another piece needs to be in there, likely Derek Forbort or Matt Grzelcyk, both on expiring contracts. That makes the money work when you factor in the budgeted contract for Swayman. But there probably needs to be another headline piece in there and that’s where it gets tricky. Would they move Fabian Lysell? If I’m Winnipeg GM Kevin Cheveldayoff, I’m asking for him in that package as Swayman for an extended Scheifele slants too heavily in Boston’s favor. That’s at least where I see the foundation of a move for him.

As for Lindholm, talk about pretty much the ideal replacement for Patrice Bergeron, at least on paper. Finding a trade match will be a lot trickier, however, as they’re not going to have interest in one of Boston’s goalies. They also have less cap flexibility than Boston does so now we’re talking about basically a straight money match which limits options. There aren’t a lot of combinations that work; the closest money-wise might be Jake DeBrusk and either Ian Mitchell or Jakub Zboril. The problem is a package headlined by those two isn’t getting Lindholm as a rental let alone as an extended player and the Bruins simply lack the draft pick and prospect capital to put a viable package together. There’s an outside shot to do something with Scheifele but I don’t see a fit for a trade for Lindholm even though he’d basically be the perfect on-ice fit for them.

Brassroo: Robby Fabbri is a decent player when healthy, but I’d like to see younger players get their chances. Any likelihood that he gets bought out or traded?

We can cross off the buyout option as the time that Detroit could have done that has come and gone. I’d also put the odds of a trade somewhere between slim and nil. I doubt there’s a team out there that’s willing to trade an asset for Fabbri when they can go sign a similar free agent for less than the two years at $4MM per season. Meanwhile, the Red Wings aren’t in a spot where they need to free up a roster spot or cap space so it doesn’t make much sense for them to either pay down the contract with retention or give up an asset to get a team with cap room to take on Fabbri’s deal.

There is another option that could achieve your objective though – waivers. If it gets to a point where Detroit needs a roster spot up front for a younger player that’s forcing their hand, they can just waive Fabbri and send him to Grand Rapids when he clears. They only clear $1.15MM off the cap in doing so but they’re far enough under where that’s not a problem. GM Steve Yzerman isn’t afraid to take that route either – Alex Nedeljkovic, Adam Erne, and Jakub Vrana all had AHL stints last season on one-way deals. That might be the best way for them to accomplish the goal of opening a spot for a prospect without waiting for an injury to arise.

Devil Shark: Which team do you think has the best bottom 6 in the league?

Which team do you think has the best 5th and 6th D pair in the league?

Which team do you think has the best league ready depth playing in the AHL and ready to call up?

Subject to change since there’s bound to be a lot of bottom-six activity in the next two months but I’ll go with Dallas as things stand. There’s a mixture of youth (Ty Dellandrea and maybe Wyatt Johnston; otherwise veteran Matt Duchene might be in there), scoring depth (at least two of Evgenii Dadonov, Mason Marchment, Duchene, and Tyler Seguin), and some capable veterans in Craig Smith and Radek Faksa. Sam Steel is also in that group and has proven to be serviceable and I wouldn’t be shocked if a prospect like Logan Stankoven forces his way into the mix. That’s a group with a fair bit of firepower and versatility.

For the best third pairing, I’ll go with Vegas. Assuming Alec Martinez plays up at five-on-five with Alex Pietrangelo and Brayden McNabb and Shea Theodore stay intact, that has the third pairing at Nic Hague and Zach Whitecloud. Both players can move onto the second pairing without an issue if injuries arise which also means they can carry heavier minutes than a typical third duo. They’re also young enough that there’s still room for improvement. That’s a third pairing a lot of teams would love to have for themselves.

The last one is a bit of an eye of the beholder question. When I think of NHL-ready depth, I’m looking for players that can easily be slotted in depth roles. Based on that definition, Pittsburgh stands out as they should have multiple players with NHL experience in AHL Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, assuming they get through waivers to get there. Columbus has a bit of a roster crunch which could result in them sending some younger players down that are capable of playing bigger roles; they might not be as proven as some of Pittsburgh’s options but the upside is better which might be more appealing depending on what it is you’re looking for from a depth perspective.

Cyclone: A lot of young talent in Columbus with their forward group. What are reasonable expectations for Babcock in year one with the CBJ?

Not finishing dead last in the East again. Okay, that’s a bit too easy. I like what they’ve done with the back end with the additions of Damon Severson and Ivan Provorov; between them and the return of Zach Werenski, they’re going to go from having a really weak group to a pretty good one. I’m honestly more bullish on their blueline than their forward group.

Don’t get me wrong, there’s some decent depth but there’s a lot of development that needs to happen still for them to start to make some noise. Kent Johnson, Cole Sillinger, Adam Fantilli, Kirill Marchenko, even Alexandre Texier; they’re all 23 or younger and haven’t maxed out their development yet. A couple of years from now when they’re all more established and productive, then that forward group is going to be dangerous working with veterans like Johnny Gaudreau and Patrik Laine.

I don’t have Columbus as a playoff team but realistic expectations should be them playing at least a few meaningful games around the trade deadline. That would be a 20-25-point jump from last season, or basically ten more wins. Even that much of a jump might be pushing things. They’ll be better – quite a bit better, really – but I’d be surprised to see them playing in mid-April.

aka.nda: How do performance bonuses affect the cap situation of a team? Does the structure differ for someone on an ELC or 35+ or 1-/2-way deal? Is there a limit to the amount of bonuses a team can offer or a time limit in which they must be paid? Not sure what the Bergeron/Krejci deals were last season, but my gut tells me the bonuses were somewhere in the 2-4mm per. Why not sign Kane or Tarasenko to a similar or higher-bonus deal? What are the loopholes/pitfalls?

If a team has ample cap space to absorb bonuses, there is no material effect. Let’s use Buffalo – they had plenty of space to cover the bonuses that Owen Power, Dylan Cozens, and others hit last season. Those amounts were added at the end of the year and that’s that. For a team that doesn’t have cap space or finishes in LTIR, any achieved bonuses are then charged on next year’s cap. That’s what’s happening to Boston (and many other teams).

For players on entry-level contracts, there are set thresholds for ‘A’ bonuses (they vary by position). There are also ‘B’ bonuses for players that are near the top of the league in scoring plus games-played ones. PuckPedia has a good explainer of these rather than me spelling them all out here.

For 35+ players, they’re allowed to have negotiated bonuses at any threshold (financial and accomplishment) as long as it’s a one-year deal. A team might offer a bonus at 10 GP and another at 40 GP, for example. Bonuses are payable when met and the general guideline is they can’t exceed 7.5% of the Upper Limit of the cap. If they do, it then cuts into straight cap space which is what happened to the Rangers not long ago when they had a bunch of players on entry-level deals at the same time. If a player isn’t on an entry-level deal or a one-year 35+ agreement, the only other way a player can have bonuses is if they’re a 400-GP veteran who spent more than 100 days on IR the previous year and they signed a one-year contract. Montreal’s Sean Monahan is an example of that one.

Patrick Kane and Vladimir Tarasenko can’t get those types of deals because they don’t meet the age criterion. Most players aren’t eligible for bonuses outside of entry-level agreements.

The benefit of a bonus-laden deal is that a team can carry a player at a below-market cost (a low base AAV) on the books for that season, allowing them to have a better roster than they would have otherwise. That’s what Boston did last year with Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci. That’s the ‘loophole’, so to speak. The downside is that they have to then eat the bonus costs the following season if they don’t have enough cap space in the current year to absorb them. That’s why the Bruins have a $4.5MM penalty for 2023-24 based on those bonuses. Used properly, there’s a definite short-term advantage but teams have to pay the piper in the end. Edmonton will be the next to feel that pain in 2024-25 with the structure of Connor Brown’s contract.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Pacific Notes: Pettersson, Mangiapane, Hickey

July 22, 2023 at 10:37 am CDT | by Brian La Rose 2 Comments

Canucks center Elias Pettersson is now eligible for a contract extension since he has entered the final season of his three-year, $22.05MM deal, one that carries a qualifying offer next summer of $8.82MM. Speaking with Postmedia’s Ben Kuzma, former Vancouver assistant GM Chris Gear (who used to handle negotiations for Vancouver) pegged a rough range of a new deal for Pettersson between $9.5MM and $10.25MM. The 24-year-old hit career highs across the board last season with 39 goals, 63 assists, and 102 points, finishing tenth in league scoring so his value is certainly at its peak. Speculatively, if that’s the approximate range that a contract for Pettersson would be at this point, Vancouver might need to go close to the top mark to get him to put pen to paper on it a year early as another 100-point showing next season could push that price tag even higher.

Elsewhere in the Pacific:

In an interview with Ryan Dittrick of the Flames’ team site, winger Andrew Mangiapane indicated that there are no more restrictions as he works his way back from offseason shoulder surgery, paving the way for him to be fully ready for training camp in the fall. The 27-year-old is coming off a down year offensively; after putting up 35 goals in 2021-22, he managed just 17 last season despite an increase in playing time. Both sides are certainly hoping that the nagging shoulder trouble played a significant role in that sizable drop in production.
The Golden Knights AHL affiliate in Henderson announced the signing of defenseman Brandon Hickey to a one-year deal. The 27-year-old was originally drafted by Calgary back in 2014 but declined to sign with them or Arizona who acquired his rights three years later. However, Hickey agreed to sign with Buffalo a year later but failed to advance past the AHL level, eventually being non-tendered. Since then, Hickey has split time between the AHL and ECHL; he got into 17 games on a tryout last season with the Silver Knights, collecting a goal and an assist.

Erik Karlsson Has Spoken With Numerous Teams About A Trade

July 22, 2023 at 9:26 am CDT | by Brian La Rose 17 Comments

For the past few weeks, there have been suggestions that Pittsburgh and Carolina are the two front-runners to land Sharks defenseman Erik Karlsson. However, the blueliner himself revealed to SportExpressen’s Adam Johansson that he has spoken to several other teams about the possibility of a swap. The two that he noted specifically were Seattle and Toronto while he acknowledged that there are a few others as well.

Karlsson has been in trade speculation dating back to before the trade deadline with San Jose squarely in a rebuild and the 33-year-old coming off a surprising career year. Last season, Karlsson became the first defenseman in more than three decades to surpass the 100-point mark, helping him take home his third career Norris Trophy.

In doing so, he presented the Sharks with an opportunity to trade his contract, a scenario that didn’t seem all that feasible just a year ago. Karlsson is on the richest deal for a blueliner in NHL history, one that still has four years remaining at a cap hit of $11.5MM. Even though it was a front-loaded pact, there is still nearly $40MM in total compensation owed to him. That’s a particularly notable figure as while there is an expectation that San Jose will need to retain some money, it isn’t going to come close to the maximum allowable of 50% as they’re not going to pay Karlsson nearly $20MM over the next four years not to play for them.

Of course, that also complicates things on the trade front as none of the Hurricanes, Penguins, Maple Leafs, or Kraken have anywhere near enough cap space to take Karlsson on outright. They will need the Sharks to retain a sizable piece while sending a significant salary offset or two to San Jose in order to make the money work. Clearly, it’s a process that is taking some time.

When asked by Johansson if he had a preferred destination, Karlsson declined to provide one, only saying that he knows what he and his family wants and that he hopes he gets that chance. Long citing his desire to land with a contender, wherever (and whenever) he goes, Karlsson should be landing with a team that’s much closer to playoff contention than San Jose currently is.

Kraken Unable To Buy Out Chris Driedger In Post-Arbitration Window

July 21, 2023 at 8:44 pm CDT | by Josh Erickson 9 Comments

One of the oft-overlooked benefits of heading to arbitration with a player is some potential additional salary cap flexibility in the form of a second buyout. It’s a window granted to teams for a 48-hour period beginning three days after they settle their last arbitration case. The Seattle Kraken did so with defenseman Vince Dunn today, inking him to a rather significant four-year, $29.4MM pact.

A rather obvious candidate for a buyout on the Kraken is netminder Chris Driedger, who the team was aggressively trying to shop earlier this summer. He missed most of the season with injury and couldn’t work his way back into the Kraken lineup when healthy, instead playing 14 games for the AHL’s Coachella Valley Firebirds and slipping to fourth on the team’s goalie depth chart. He didn’t see a single second of action in the Firebirds’ run to Game 7 of the Calder Cup Final in their first season.

He’s third now with the departure of Martin Jones in free agency, but his $3.5MM cap hit is incredibly steep for a third-string netminder. However, Seattle will not be able to use a buyout on Driedger – players bought out during the conditional second window must have a cap hit of at least $4MM (and have been on the team’s reserve list at the prior season’s trade deadline).

It leaves Seattle with no other likely buyout options in the second window, so don’t expect them to take advantage of that early next week. The Kraken are now within $2MM of the salary cap’s $83.5MM Upper Limit after signing Dunn, a testament to the team’s quick rise to relevance with a payroll that reflects it.

The team will likely continue its attempts to move Driedger as the season draws nigh, as even getting rid of him at 50% salary retention is preferable to burying him in the minors, which would only bring his cap hit down to $2.35MM.

Philadelphia is the only team to utilize its post-arbitration buyout window this offseason, parting ways with defenseman Tony DeAngelo and the final season of a two-year, $10MM contract last week.

Seattle Kraken Extend Vince Dunn

July 21, 2023 at 3:58 pm CDT | by Brennan McClain 5 Comments

6:17 p.m.: Per Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, Dunn’s new contract will come in at a four-year deal worth $29.4MM, or $7.35MM per season. It’s top-pairing money for the Kraken’s number-one defender, who could very well exceed that contract’s value if he continues on his current path. CapFriendly reports the breakdown of the deal is as follows:

2023-24: $9MM salary
2024-25: $8MM salary (full no-trade clause)
2025-26: $7MM salary (16-team no-trade list)
2026-27: $5.4MM salary (16-team no-trade list)

Seattle promptly confirmed the contract. Dunn will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of his deal, when he’ll be 30 in the offseason of 2027.

3:58 p.m.: By far the team’s most important restricted free agent heading into this summer, Kevin Weekes of ESPN reports the Seattle Kraken are closing in on an extension for defenseman Vince Dunn. After almost doubling his career-high in points this past season, Dunn was due for a healthy raise from the Kraken front office.

Dunn, who was originally the 56th overall pick of the St.Louis Blues back in the 2015 NHL Draft, never got a huge shot with the Blues. Seemingly capable of playing top-four minutes in his last year with St.Louis back during the 2020-21 season, Dunn was behind the likes of Justin Faulk, Torey Krug, Colton Parayko, and Marco Scandella on the team’s depth chart.

Nevertheless, he was always a capable contributor during his time with the Blues, scoring anywhere from 20-35 points a season, averaging a tad over 17 minutes a night in four seasons. Thankfully for Dunn, an opportunity came knocking during the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft, as St.Louis opted to protect Faulk, Krug, and Parayko, leaving Dunn exposed for the Kraken to select him at no cost.

As expected, most of the upstart Seattle roster struggled during their inaugural season in 2021-22, but Dunn managed to match a career-high in points, scoring seven goals and 28 assists in 73 games played. He was given ample opportunity on the team’s powerplay, a situation that was previously rare to him during his time with the Blues. The Kraken powerplay struggled overall in the team’s first year, only producing at a 14.55% clip, good for 29th in the league.

As the team grew closer, added more talent last offseason, and absorbed head coach Dave Hakstol’s tactics, Dunn and the Kraken put up an exceptional 2022-23 season. Early on, Dunn immediately earned the spot as the team’s top defenseman, quarterbacking a powerplay that took a 5.2% jump in one season. Overall, Dunn would score 14 goals and 50 assists in 81 games played, while 15 of those points would come on the Kraken powerplay.

Not only would Dunn lead all Seattle defensemen in points, but he also finished second on the team overall, only sitting behind forward Jared McCann by six points for the team lead. In 14 playoff games, Dunn would score one goal and six assists, helping the team eliminate the defending Stanley Cup champions, the Colorado Avalanche, in the first round of the postseason.

Still only 26 years old, Dunn picked a fantastic time to have a breakout campaign, as the Kraken currently have a decent cap situation to retain him for as long as they’d like. Proving to be the most offensively gifted defenseman on the roster, Dunn could become a staple on Seattle’s blue line for quite some time.

Arbitration Breakdown: Philipp Kurashev

July 21, 2023 at 2:00 pm CDT | by Ethan Hetu 1 Comment

Yesterday, Chicago Blackhawks RFA forward Philipp Kurashev’s arbitration hearing was scheduled, and NBC Sports’ Charlie Roumeliotis reported that the hearing went forward as the team and player could not reach an agreement on a contract.

Puckpedia notes that with Toronto Maple Leafs netminder Ilya Samsonov also reaching a full arbitration hearing without a deal, this year already features the same number of arbitration hearings as the NHL had seen beforehand since 2020. Kurashev specifically is sort of a prime candidate to have his next contract decided by an arbitrator, as his on-ice value isn’t quite so easy to pin down.

Now, the Blackhawks have more cap space than most other NHL clubs, with over $15MM in space still available. So it’s not like they need to keep Kurashev’s next cap hit as low as possible to remain cap compliant.

Instead, as The Athletic’s Scott Powers writes, since Kurashev, 23, is a player who could possibly still be on the Blackhawks when the team enters its Connor Bedard-led competitive era, the team likely has an interest in keeping his cost as reasonable as possible, since they don’t want to box themselves into overpaying for what he brings once they eventually lack cap space. (subscription link)

So while the value for some teams through the arbitration process is simply getting financial certainty on a player within a designated timeframe, that’s not important for the Blackhawks. Here, Kurashev presents an opportunity for the team to lay the groundwork for a sustainable salary cap future once the team pivots towards legitimate contention.

Filings

Team: $1.4MM (one-year)
Player: $2.65MM (two-years)
Midpoint: $2.025MM

(via Powers)

The Numbers

Although 2022-23 saw Kurashev set a career-high in goals, assists, and points in the NHL, it’s difficult to view the year as an emphatic step forward. Kurashev is a versatile forward for whom last season was his age-23 campaign. As a player gets more NHL experience under his belt and gets closer to his mid-twenties, sizeable growth steps are expected if a player is to reach his highest NHL upside.

For Kurashev, this was the season where he had a chance to really establish himself as an impactful player. He had shown flashes of a high skill level going back to his rookie season, but that had not materialized into standout production with the Blackhawks or AHL’s Rockford IceHogs.

This past season was a test for Kurashev, and how he fared may have revealed an important truth about who he is at the NHL level. Offensive skill wasn’t the main area of value Kurashev provided to first-year head coach Luke Richardson. Instead, it was Kurashev’s versatility and his resilience. In the midst of a challenging season, Kurashev’s ability to play all three forward positions, and his ability to mold himself to fit the expectations and style of any given line he’s placed on made him a regular face in the lineup, at least until he was knocked out for the season by a Tom Wilson hit on March 23rd.

There’s usefulness in the type of player who can act as a sort of “glue” that keeps a line functioning when one of its regulars is maybe absent, but there is a downside to Kurashev’s main calling card being his versatility. The jack-of-all-trades approach combined with how he was deployed meant that he was never able to forge his own unique identity in the NHL.

He was unable to carve out a consistent space for himself within Richardson’s team, instead often bouncing to wherever he was needed most. In other words, his deployment was built around how the lineup was structured, rather than the lineup being built around how he was deployed.

This means moving forward, how do the Blackhawks value Kurashev? Do they see him as a long-term third-line staple, for example? Someone who could occupy a bottom-six role on a consistent basis? Or do they perhaps view him more as a reserve forward, a player who they ideally would trust to step into the lineup whenever an injury hits, rather than someone penciled into an opening-night lineup?

That’s what makes this arbitration case a difficult one, and the arbitration award is likely to come somewhere down the middle of the two parties’ filings. (as most cases do) How Kurashev is deployed next season, now that the Blackhawks have added some genuine talent to their lineup, may reveal how Kurashev is viewed as part of the Blackhawks’ future.

2022-23 Stats: 70 GP 9G 16A 25 pts -32 rating 14 PIMs 7.8% s% 17:25 ATOI
Career Stats: 191 GP 23G 39A 62 pts -57 rating 38 PIMs 8.6% s% 14:35 ATOI

Potential Comparables

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency, which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used. The contracts below fit within those parameters. Player salaries also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides of this negotiation.

Alexandre Texier (Blue Jackets) – After Texier’s 2020-21 campaign, he signed a two-year, $1.525MM AAV contract extension that likely serves as a “low-end” comparable for what Kurashev’s awarded contract could look like. Texier was a bit younger than Kurashev is now (just about one month separates their birthdays in 1999) but his profile was similar. Texier, like Kurashev, was lauded for his versatility and ability to play at center and the wing. He also had flashed upside at the NHL level but his evident talent had not materialized into anything concrete yet in the league. Like Kurashev, Texier’s poor puck luck (shooting percentage of 5.3%) was also cited as a potential reason explaining why his numbers were a disappointment. Texier managed 15 points in 49 games, a lower pace than Kurashev’s this past season, but overall they have similar profiles, and Kurashev’s floor for what he ends up receiving should look like this Texier deal.

Dillon Dube (Calgary Flames) – Dube signed a three-year, $2.3MM AAV pact with the Flames after his 2020-21 season, a year where he posted 11 goals and 22 points in 51 games. Unlike Kurashev, Dube was utilized almost exclusively on the wing, though he has shown the ability to play center at times both in his junior and later in his NHL career. Dube had a stronger record of production than Kurashev has at other levels of hockey, though, likely influencing the Flames to believe in Dube’s offensive upside at the NHL level. He delivered on that upside in 2022-23, scoring 18 goals and 45 points. It’s unclear whether the Blackhawks believe Kurashev has the ability to post those numbers playing on his next contract, so this $2.3MM AAV could represent a higher-end contract comparable for what Kurashev eventually receives.

Projection

Although there are a lot of reasons to value what Kurashev brings to the Blackhawks, ultimately his numbers are not strong enough to justify his $2.65MM AAV. Averaging over 17 minutes of ice time and over two minutes on a power play across a sample of 70 games should result in better numbers than what Kurashev was able to post.

If Kurashev anchored the Blackhawks’ penalty kill or provided exemplary physical or defensive play, maybe that gap would be bridged a bit, but that’s simply not what Kurashev provides. Still, $1.4MM with a two-year term isn’t exactly fair either. A middle ground at around $2MM AAV, perhaps maybe a shade lower if the arbitrator really puts stock in Kurashev’s lack of points production, seems like a reasonable outcome here.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Free Agent Profile: Phil Kessel

July 21, 2023 at 1:00 pm CDT | by Josh Cybulski 22 Comments

At this point in the summer, most teams are looking to make small tweaks to their lineups and settle with their restricted free-agent class. Other teams are still on the hunt for bargains, and with salary cap space at a minimum there are still a lot of strong veteran players who can contribute positively if put in the right position. That statement perfectly describes NHL Iron Man Phil Kessel, a three-time cup winner, a possible future hall of famer, and a man just eight points shy of 1000 for his career.

Despite being a healthy scratch for most of the Vegas Golden Knights journey to their first Stanley Cup, Kessel remains the NHL Iron Man having played 1064 consecutive NHL games and counting.

The streak does not factor in regular season games leaving Kessel’s number intact should he sign with an NHL team this summer.

Kessel hasn’t missed an NHL regular season game since October 31, 2009, when he was a member of the Toronto Maple Leafs, a remarkable run of durability. Since debuting with the Boston Bruins 2007-08 season, Kessel has posted 413 goals and 579 assists in 1286 career games. Over the course of his 17-year NHL career, he has had six 30-goal seasons and four seasons with 80 points or more.

Kessel has reached a point in his career where it appears he is content to let the market come to him, last summer he didn’t sign with the Golden Knights until August, and it paid off handsomely as he was able to collect another Stanley Cup ring. Kessel signed for $1.5MM on a one-year deal at the time, and it was considered a bargain for a player coming of a 52-point season the year prior. For their investment, Vegas got 14 goals and 22 assists out of Kessel in 82 games as he played largely in a sheltered depth role. That type of role on a contending team is probably the ideal circumstance for the 35-year-old. Gone are the days when Kessel could play 18 minutes a night as he is better suited at this stage of his career to play 10-12 minutes per game.

Kessel isn’t the dynamic skater he once was, and he can’t fire his snapshot off the rush that made him a perennial 30-goal scorer, but he can be a veteran offensive presence on a team that is looking for some scoring from their bottom-6 forward group.