Archives for May 2023

The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs plus those that were eliminated early.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Montreal.

After finishing last in the league a year ago, expectations were rather low for the Canadiens heading into the season.  While they played better in the second half of 2021-22 under Martin St. Louis, how would the team fare in his first full campaign?  The end result was not much better although Montreal had significant injuries throughout the year once again.  They’re not at a point where they’re likely to push for a playoff spot but they will still have a few things to get through this offseason.

Decision On Gurianov

When the Canadiens opted to pick up winger Denis Gurianov at the trade deadline instead of a draft pick for Evgenii Dadonov, it looked like Montreal was hoping that they could get him going and that he’d be a multi-season asset for the team.  Of course, with a $2.9MM qualifying offer due in June, they’d need to see some steady play to deem him worthy of that offer.

What they wound up getting, however, was a mixed bag.  The 25-year-old had five goals and three assists in 23 games with his new team, a better performance than how he started the year in Dallas.  Extrapolated over a full season, Gurianov’s numbers with the Canadiens would have been 18 goals and 11 assists; a player that gets close to 20 goals is probably worth that qualifying offer.

However, his game-to-game performance varied significantly to the point where it might be risky to tender him at that rate.  If they feel that way, chances are that other teams will too which probably takes a trade off the table.  At that point, the options are to try to negotiate a cheaper one-year agreement or just outright non-tender him.

Gurianov’s track record suggests there should be some interest in him if he makes it to free agency, just at a price tag below $2.9MM.  He had three straight double-digit goal seasons before this one plus a strong playoff performance in the bubble in 2020.  With that in mind, if the Canadiens go to him with an offer below his qualifier, would he be better off testing the open market anyway?  They have just under a couple of months to figure out what will happen with Gurianov.

Re-Sign Caufield

Cole Caufield had a long-term stay on Montreal’s injured list this season as he missed nearly the final three months of the campaign after undergoing shoulder surgery.  Despite that, he still finished tied for the team lead in goals with 26 in just 46 games.  Even missing basically half the season, he still had a strong platform year heading into restricted free agency for the first time in his career.

Despite needing a new deal, Caufield doesn’t exactly have a lot of NHL experience under his belt, just 123 regular season contests, basically the equivalent of a year and a half worth of games.  That makes it a little harder to find a range of comparables on a long-term contract although the seven-year, $49MM deal that Minnesota gave Matt Boldy earlier this season should provide a general floor of what such a move might cost.  Having said that, it stands to reason that if that deal or something close to it was an option for Montreal, an agreement would be in place already.  It also remains to be seen if they will want to use Nick Suzuki’s $7.85MM AAV as an internal cap in discussions.

At a time when many teams are considerably more aggressive than they used to be in terms of bypassing bridge contracts in favor of long-term pacts, it’s possible that the pendulum swings back the other way this summer.  With the expectation that the increases to the salary cap should be more significant starting in 2024-25, Caufield might prefer to take a bridge deal and try to work out a long-term agreement in a couple of years when the cap will be higher.

One thing to note here is that Caufield still has five years of RFA eligibility remaining instead of four as he didn’t accrue a season towards free agency when he came out of college and finished up the 2020-21 campaign.  That sets up a scenario where a bridge agreement could be as long as four years.  In that situation, his camp might push for the type of deal that Dallas winger Jason Robertson received, a four-year contract with a $7.75MM AAV.  Something that is also worth noting is that the two players share the same agent, Pat Brisson.  Without salary arbitration rights, this negotiation could take a while.

Utilize Cap Space

The Canadiens have been capped out the last couple of years but have some pricey contracts coming off the books in Jonathan Drouin ($5.5MM) and Sean Monahan ($6.375MM) while Paul Byron and his $3.4MM will also be cleared after the winger was on LTIR all season long.  While Caufield will take up a big chunk of those savings, he’s the only RFA of note that Montreal has.

That at least gives them the option to look to add a player or two in a trade or on the open market; it wouldn’t be surprising to see them try to bring Monahan back on a one-year deal as he had fit in rather well before injuries ended his year prematurely.  Alternatively, they’re in a position to potentially look to do what they did with Monahan and take on a contract while being compensated with a draft pick or prospect for doing so.  Assuming they’re willing to go deep into LTIR again with Carey Price’s $10.5MM deal, they might have a couple of opportunities to do so.

Clear Some Clutter

One thing that rebuilding teams typically like to do is create some opportunities for younger players but the Canadiens have quite a few veterans that it could be suggested are taking up some spots.  Wingers Mike Hoffman (one year, $4.5MM) and Joel Armia (two years, $3.4MM) have underachieved while veteran blueliner Joel Edmundson (one year, $3.5MM) is coming off a down year and plays on the left side of the back end, a side that Montreal has a lot of depth at already.

Moving one or two of these players out would open up some roster spots, either for a prospect like Rafael Harvey-Pinard to push for a full-time spot or, if they do take on an unwanted contract, a spot will be needed for that player.  There’s definitely some risk in moving out some depth on a team that has dealt with plenty of injuries the last two seasons but it’s still an avenue they’d be wise to look into.

Back at the trade deadline, GM Kent Hughes acknowledged that he purposely opted to keep one salary retention slot open to give them some more trade options at the draft.  (Salary retention slots used on players on expiring contracts don’t clear until July 1st.)  It stands to reason that this retention slot could be used to try to move out one of these veterans before free agency opens up in July.  Accordingly, the Canadiens could be a team to keep an eye on when it comes to the trade market in the coming weeks.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.