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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Los Angeles Kings

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2022-23 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Los Angeles Kings

Current Cap Hit: $80,986,667 (under the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Tobias Bjornfot (one year, $894K)
F Quinton Byfield (two years, $894K)
F Arthur Kaliyev (two years, $894K)
F Rasmus Kupari (one year, $863K)
D Jordan Spence (two years, $820K)

Potential Bonuses
Bjornfot: $262.5K
Byfield: $2.65MM
Kaliyev: $150K
Kupari: $350K
Spence: $82.5K
Total: $3.495MM

Kailyev had a decent first full NHL season, notching 27 points in 80 games in a limited role.  He’s likely to remain in the bottom six for a little while yet which will likely have him trending towards a bridge contract in 2024, one that would still more than double his current price tag.  Byfield, the second-overall pick in 2019, had a quiet rookie year and is unlikely to play any higher than the third line with the veterans ahead of him on the depth chart.  Accordingly, a big-ticket contract isn’t coming his way in two years’ time; both sides will want a short-term pact.  Kupari was a serviceable checking forward last season which isn’t bad but they’re hoping for more offensively from him.  A similar showing this season will put his bridge contract in the $1.5MM range.

Bjornfot was a fixture on the third pairing for most of last season and it will be interesting to see if head coach Todd McLellan pushes him a little higher in 2022-23.  His limited offensive upside will limit his earnings potential (especially if they try to work out a long-term deal) but he’ll have a shot at doubling his price tag next summer.  Spence could be a waiver-exemption roster casualty in camp but after logging nearly 20 minutes a game in limited action last season, he has earned a longer look.  It’s a bit early to forecast his next deal but as someone that was quite productive in the minors and did well in his first NHL stint, he’s someone that could be poised for a considerable jump on his second deal.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

F Jaret Anderson-Dolan ($750K, RFA)
F Lias Andersson ($750K, RFA)
D Alex Edler ($750K, UFA)
F Brendan Lemieux ($1.35MM, UFA)
F Trevor Moore ($1.875MM, UFA)
G Jonathan Quick ($5.8MM, UFA)
F Gabriel Vilardi ($825K, RFA)
F Austin Wagner ($1.133MM, RFA)

Potential Bonuses
Edler: $750K

Moore is coming off a breakout year that saw him more than double his previous career-high in points while establishing himself as a fixture on the second line.  At this point, both sides will want to see how things go next year; a repeat performance could put him closer to the $3.5MM to $4MM mark while a dip closer to his career averages would knock at least a million off of that range.  Lemieux quickly re-signed after being non-tendered but will need to establish himself as more than just a fourth-line energy winger if he wants an opportunity to really get to that next salary tier.  Wagner spent all of last season in the minors but could be back on the fourth line at some point.  Otherwise, all but $8.3K can be buried in AHL Ontario if he clears waivers again.

Among the younger forwards, Vilardi was quite productive with AHL Ontario last season but didn’t produce much with the Kings, just seven points in 25 games.  That got him a one-year bridge deal.  At this point, he’s likely to break camp as he’s now waiver-eligible but this could be a make-or-break year with several other youngsters in the pipeline.  Andersson and Anderson-Dolan are in similar situations, players who are also now waiver-eligible and haven’t produced much to date in the NHL.  Until they can establish themselves as regulars, they’ll be going year-to-year on their deals.

Edler was once again limited due to injuries last season but he did well in a supporting role when he was in there, resulting in a one-year extension.  At 36 and with his injury history, he’ll be going year-to-year on similarly-structured deals for the rest of his career.

Quick has been a fixture between the pipes for the Kings for more than a decade.  Heading into last season, his contract looked like a considerable overpayment for someone that was expected to be pushed down into the second-string role.  However, he then went out and became the 1A option once again which changes the outlook of his contract considerably.  Quick will be 37 when his next contract is signed so he will likely be going year to year moving forward but if he can even keep a grab of a platoon spot, he should have some interest on the open market in the $3.5MM range next summer.  Will he be willing to leave Los Angeles, however?  That one remains to be seen.

Signed Through 2023-24

F Viktor Arvidsson ($4.25MM, UFA)
F Carl Grundstrom ($1.35MM, RFA)
F Anze Kopitar ($10MM, UFA)
F Blake Lizotte ($1.675MM, RFA)
D Jacob Moverare ($762.5K, RFA)
D Matt Roy ($3.125MM, UFA)
D Sean Walker ($2.65MM, UFA)

Kopitar has been the top center for the Kings for most of his 16-year career and even if he hasn’t produced at the level of a high-end pivot, his defensive play has made him a true number one.  However, he’ll be 37 two years from now and the days of him logging over 20 minutes a night should be done by then.  His next contract could very well be his last and should be either two or three years with an AAV closer to the $6MM mark as long as he can still play at a second-line level by the end of the 2023-24 campaign.

A new team was just what Arvidsson needed as he had a nice bounce-back year after a pair of quiet seasons at the end of his tenure with Nashville.  He fit in nicely on the second line, one that was very effective defensively, good offensively, and carried plenty of possession.  Continuing that combination for the next two seasons would give him a good chance of adding another million or so on his next contract.  Lizotte just wrapped his first full NHL season on the third line which understandably resulted in a short-term second contract.  He’ll need to establish himself as capable of playing a bit more than 12 minutes a night by 2024 as otherwise, he could be one of those arbitration risks that teams are opting to walk away from more frequently.  Grundstrom has provided the Kings with plenty of physicality, albeit in a limited role and with the look of their roster right now, his short-term fortune isn’t likely to change.  That could put him in the same situation Lemieux was last month, getting non-tendered to avoid arbitration.

Roy has never been a particularly flashy defenseman which is what made this deal – originally a four-year pact – a bit of a head-scratcher at the time.  However, he continues to be a reliable role player and he stepped up quite nicely when injuries arose last season.  As is the case with Bjornfot, his limited offensive upside will limit the price tag of his next contract but there’s room for him to add a little more to his current AAV.  Walker missed all but six games last season due to a knee injury and has been used as a fifth defenseman when he has played over the last couple of years.  As teams look to trim costs by going with more cost-effective depth players, that could be a challenge for Walker unless he can step into a top-four role.  Moverare is now waiver-eligible and with him signed for two years at the minimum, he’s a risk to be claimed off waivers so he’ll likely enter the season as their seventh defenseman although that’s not great from the perspective of his next contract.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Alex Iafallo ($4MM, UFA)
G Calvin Petersen ($5MM, UFA)

Iafallo is the ideal winger in the sense that can play different roles and succeed in all of them.  That type of versatility can be quite valuable to a team and he has done well in that role with the Kings.  On the other hand, with some wingers feeling the pinch in recent UFA contracts, this also now looks like a bit of an above-market contract.  The financial landscape should change by the time this deal is up though so the valuation of the contract might be different a couple of years from now.

Petersen signed this contract a year ago as an extension to his now-expired deal so this will be his first year with the weight of expectations that a deal like this carries.  Instead of being a second option making less than a typical backup, he’s now tied for 14th in AAV among all NHL goaltenders despite having just 91 career regular season games under his belt.  If he can wrestle back the starting role and play 50-55 games a season, they’ll get good enough value out of this deal but that’s a bigger question mark now than it was a year ago.

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Examining Trade Options For San Jose’s Goalie Surplus

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Generally speaking, extra depth is rarely a bad thing to have.  That extra impact forward, carrying more than four top-four defensemen, these are often elements of successful teams.  But that same argument doesn’t apply to goaltending as almost all of the time, carrying three is seen as less than ideal and teams will often move their extra option before too long.

San Jose is presently an exception to that idea as they’re carrying three NHL goaltenders in Kaapo Kahkonen, Adin Hill, and James Reimer.  All three are on short-term deals (Reimer and Hill have one year left and Kahkonen two) and all three make between $2.1MM and $2.75MM.  At least from a contract standpoint, they’re more or less interchangeable.

But Kahkonen was brought in from Minnesota at the trade deadline and then given the two-year deal so it stands to reason that they don’t want to move him.  That leaves the 26-year-old Hill and the 34-year-old Reimer as their two trade options with the latter only making $75K more than the former.  The Sharks might prefer to keep the younger Hill but his trade value might be better depending on who shows interest.

With that in mind, let’s examine some of the teams that might be interested in adding one of San Jose’s netminders even with most of the goalie movement being done for the summer.

Arizona

The Coyotes know they don’t have their backup goalie on the roster yet.  Karel Vejmelka is unproven as a starter so adding a second netminder that could play close to half the games wouldn’t hurt.  Yes, they’re a team with an eye on the future but they can still try to lose competitively.  Would they trade for Hill after moving him to San Jose just over a year ago or would they prefer Reimer?  If not one of them, they’ll be watching the waiver wire in October.

Minnesota

There isn’t a true opening with Marc-Andre Fleury as the starter and Filip Gustavsson as the backup but Gustavsson is coming off a tough 2021-22 campaign with Ottawa.  Playing Fleury heavy minutes would carry some risk so while Gustavsson is the backup of the future, GM Bill Guerin might want to assess if they’d be better off with a more reliable second option even if it forces them to turn around and carry three goalies with Gustavsson now being waiver-eligible.

Philadelphia

Back in May, it looked like the Flyers had their goalie situation figured out as they were able to sign highly-touted prospect Ivan Fedotov to partner up with Carter Hart.  However, the netminder is now serving in the Russian military which will take him out of the equation.  Felix Sandstrom is likely next in line but has just five career NHL appearances under his belt.  Philadelphia is looking for more short-term success so adding a more proven backup is something GM Chuck Fletcher will likely be looking into.

Vegas

Following the season-ending hip surgery for Robin Lehner, GM Kelly McCrimmon came out and said his intention is to go with Logan Thompson and Laurent Brossoit as their tandem.  Thompson has shown promise but his NHL experience is limited while Brossoit has been hit and miss in his career.  If things don’t go well early on, they could look to turn to San Jose for a chance at an upgrade.

Washington

This might seem a little odd considering that they just signed Charlie Lindgren to a three-year deal to be Darcy Kuemper’s backup.  But Lindgren’s cap hit is right at the line of being fully buriable in the minors if a better option presents itself.  Their LTIR situation with Nicklas Backstrom gives them some extra flexibility to add a short-term deal so if they trust Reimer or Hill over a goalie that has just 29 games of NHL experience and finished up the AHL playoffs as the backup, GM Brian MacLellan will likely check in on what that upgrade would cost.

Winnipeg

They added David Rittich as a low-cost backup early in free agency, handing him a one-year, $900K contract.  That can be fully buried in the minors if a better option presents itself.  The Jets still have considerable cap space at their disposal and are a team with an eye on winning in the present so if they aren’t able to add at other positions, turning around and upgrading Connor Hellebuyck’s backup would be a reasonable backup plan.

Obviously, not all of these teams are going to make a move between the pipes in the coming weeks so the options for GM Mike Grier are going to be limited.  If he wants to get top value – the asking price for Reimer is believed to be a second-round pick – he might have to wait until the season starts to see if injuries force someone’s hand.  Otherwise, it will be a limited market for whichever one he decides to move.  Surplus quality depth at most positions is usually a good thing and could yield a strong return in a trade but for goaltenders, it’s just not the case.

Free Agent Profile: Daniel Sprong

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Daniel Sprong’s development as a professional hockey player has been a rather interesting case to follow and at age 25, the final returns on the winger may not be finalized just yet. Born in the Netherlands, Sprong began his amateur hockey career rising through the ranks in Quebec, culminating with three years as a member of the QMJHL’s Charlottetown Islanders. As an Islander, Sprong was an offensive force, putting up 30 goals and 38 assists in 67 games as a rookie, following it up with another 39 goals and 49 assists in 68 games the year after.

That summer, Sprong was selected 46th overall in the 2016 NHL Entry Draft by the Pittsburgh Penguins. As is commonplace in today’s NHL, the overwhelming majority of players selected outside of the first round, and most of those too, don’t make the jump to the NHL right away, instead continuing their development for another year or two, or more. However, Sprong was able to make the jump to the NHL immediately, debuting in Pittsburgh to start the 2015-16 season. An 18-year-old Sprong would play in only 18 games, scoring a pair of goals before being sent back to Charlottetown, recording 46 points in 33 games there. After the end of his QMJHL season, Sprong returned to the pro ranks, this time with Scranton-Wilkes Barre, Pittsburgh’s AHL affiliate, where he had five goals and a pair of assists in 10 playoff games. Although he was able to hold his own professionally as an 18-year-old, the Penguins opted to keep Sprong in Charlottetown in 2016-17 for one more season of development, the winger having another sensational season: 59 points in just 31 games.

The next year, Sprong had his first full professional season, spending the majority in the AHL, impressing with 32 goals and 33 assists in 65 games. A dominant AHL season on his resume, Sprong appeared poised to take the next step at the NHL level, but stumbled out of the gate with just four assists in 16 games to start 2018-19 with Pittsburgh, who dealt him to the Anaheim Ducks for defenseman Marcus Pettersson. It looked as though Sprong found his groove in Anaheim, adding 19 points in 47 games, 14 of which were goals. But, the following season, Anaheim would keep him in the AHL, where the forward couldn’t repeat his previous production, stepping back to 27 points in 39 AHL games.

Anaheim ultimately moved him to the Washington Capitals in February of 2020, but the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic would pump the brakes on any opportunity with the Capitals until the 2020-21 season. Then, Washington made Sprong a regular part of their lineup, as he contributed 13 goals and seven assists in 43 games in the shortened campaign, very much on par with his 2018-19 season. Sprong’s 2021-22 was another similar effort with 14 points in 47 games for the Capitals ahead of a March trade, this time to the Seattle Kraken, where he registered six points, all goals, in 16 games.

A RFA at season’s end, the Kraken chose not to qualify Sprong, the organization instead overhauling much of its forward group. Now, Sprong finds himself a UFA a month-and-a-half after the market opened looking for his next opportunity, which could come with his fifth NHL franchise. While he may not be any sort of high-end scoring option at the NHL level, Sprong does possess speed and an NHL caliber shot proven to put pucks in the back of the net at some frequency. On top of that, he is a bona fide scorer in the AHL.

Stats:

2021-22: 63 GP, 14 G, 6 A, 20 pts, + o rating, 8 PIMs, 153 shots, 12:59 ATOI

Career: 202 GP, 46 G, 24 A, 70 pts, -10 rating, 30 PIMs, 414 shots, 12:06 ATOI

Potential Suitors:

At this point in his career, it doesn’t appear Sprong’s place in the NHL is, or ever will be, as an everyday option for a team. However, he has shown he can handle NHL action when pressed into duty. In other words, he could be the perfect depth forward for an organization. On top of that, his ability to produce in the AHL is of value not only to AHL teams, but an NHL organization looking to establish a winning culture in their minor league system.

An ideal organization would be one that has a place to offer Sprong top-six minutes on their AHL squad, but maybe doesn’t have the layers of depth it would want to in case of emergency (think of the New York Islanders and Ottawa Senators last fall). Sprong wouldn’t be the most valuable piece in whichever organization he’s a part of, but having him help an AHL club win hockey games, giving prospects a chance to understand winning and playing important professional games, while giving an NHL team an experienced player to join them when things get rough with injury or COVID, could lead to Sprong being a quietly vital part of the organization.

Projected Contract:

Even after the Kraken failed to qualify Sprong, it wasn’t unthinkable that he could get a guaranteed one-way contract this summer, especially given his skillset, previous contributions, and his age, though even that wouldn’t have been much more, if at all, above the $750K minimum salary. However, at this point in free agency, Sprong is most likely going to have to settle for a two-way deal. That wouldn’t necessarily be the worst option, as it could open up additional doors for Sprong to contribute and play important minutes at either level, which at 25 years of age, could still serve to grow his stock as a player.

Minor Transactions: 08/28/22

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While the IIHF Women’s World Championship continues in Denmark, with Team Canada again dominating the pack, things on this side of the Atlantic Ocean are much slower this weekend. Despite multiple NHL-quality free agents remaining on the market, movement has stalled in recent days. But the season is starting much sooner for European and junior leagues than it does for the NHL and AHL, so those teams continue to make transactions to get ready for opening night. We’ll keep a list of those right here.

  • Amidst many QMJHL trades today, Carolina Hurricanes prospect Robert Orr was dealt from the Halifax Mooseheads to the Gatineau Olympiques in exchange for a second-round and fifth-round draft pick. Taken 136th overall in 2021 after the familiarly named forward notched 32 points in 41 games, his production stalled this year with 44 points in 63 games. Hopefully, a move to Gatineau helps get the still-18-year-old’s development back on track.

This page will be updated throughout the day.

Remaining Restricted Free Agents

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August 28: The list below has been updated to reflect the remaining restricted free agents as of August 28, 2022.

August 12: We’re now coming up on one month since the start of free agency, and two months until the start of the 2022-23 regular season. Teams have mostly completed their offseason business, though a handful still have big issues to solve at some point in the next few weeks.

The arbitration schedule has finished and many of the front offices are slowing down for the rest of the summer in preparation for a long upcoming campaign. That is, except for the teams that still have restricted free agents to sign.

According to CapFriendly, 29 players who received qualifying offers are still unsigned, though that list includes a few New York Islanders minor leaguers who very well could have already agreed to contracts. The Islanders do also have Noah Dobson, who is among the most important names on the list after his breakout 51-point campaign.

Dobson, 22, looks as though he will be a building block for the team through the next decade, and seems positioned for a long-term contract at some point in the near future.

Beyond New York, many eyes are on the Dallas Stars, where Jason Robertson and Jake Oettinger remain unsigned. Other than Miro Heiskanen, there may not be any more important players on the Stars roster than the star forward and emerging goaltender. Both would command hefty cap hits on long-term deals, and given the $10MM in cap space remaining for Dallas, may end up with bridge contracts when things are all said and done.

There are other full-time NHLers among the group too. Alexander Romanov, Kirby Dach, Filip Zadina, Ryan McLeod, and Alex Formenton all played at least 70 games this season for their respective clubs, and are without deals to this point. The full list is below:

Arizona Coyotes

Barrett Hayton

Calgary Flames

Adam Ruzicka

Buffalo Sabres

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dallas Stars

Jake Oettinger
Jason Robertson

Edmonton Oilers

Ryan McLeod

Los Angeles Kings

Michael Anderson
Sean Durzi

Montreal Canadiens

Kirby Dach
Cayden Primeau

New York Islanders

Parker Wotherspoon

Ottawa Senators

Erik Brannstrom
Alex Formenton

Philadelphia Flyers

Hayden Hodgson

San Jose Sharks

Jonah Gadjovich

Seattle Kraken

Cale Fleury

Toronto Maple Leafs

Rasmus Sandin

Vegas Golden Knights

Nicolas Hague

Of note, most of these players are eligible to sign an offer sheet, if they choose to. Only Romanov and Cates are what are called 10.2(c) players, which are not eligible to negotiate with any team other than their own.

There are also several players like Josef Korenar, who are technically still restricted free agents relative to the NHL but have signed overseas. These rights will be held by their team after issuing qualifying offers but there is no need to list them with the above group.

Any of these restricted free agents must sign a contract before December 1 to be eligible to play in the NHL this season. Though training camp provides a soft deadline, that is the actual threshold that negotiations need to be completed by, or else a player could miss an entire year.

Poll: Who Will Win The Pacific Division?

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Last season, there was a significant disparity in the quality of teams in the Eastern and Western Conferences, especially among playoff teams. But there was an even more exaggerated difference between the Pacific Division and the rest of the league, with three Pacific teams (Anaheim, San Jose, Seattle) finishing under the 80-point mark.

However, nearly every Pacific Division team made significant roster changes this offseason, leading to what will likely be a shuffling of the deck in the Pacific’s hierarchy and overall strength.

With any major moves among Pacific teams likely settled at this stage, it’s now a safe exercise to cautiously issue some predictions about how the division will evolve in 2022-23. How will the Calgary Flames fare after their Jonathan Huberdeau/Matthew Tkachuk swap and adding Nazem Kadri and MacKenzie Weegar? Do the Vegas Golden Knights rebound from horrific injury luck last season that isn’t showing signs of stopping? Is Jack Campbell the goalie solution the Edmonton Oilers have been looking for?

Those aren’t the only major storylines, although they are arguably the top three teams in the division based on past years.

The Los Angeles Kings are looking to continue upward after a surprise playoff appearance last year, bringing in Kevin Fiala to help bolster their offense and push the team further toward another contending period. But Jonathan Quick’s consistency as he ages remains a question, and Calvin Petersen is coming off a rough season in which he lost the starting job back to Quick.

The Vancouver Canucks still need to shore up some things on defense, but they should still be in the playoff conversation with the additions of Ilya Mikheyev and Andrei Kuzmenko to add speed and skill to their middle-six forward group.

The Anaheim Ducks and Seattle Kraken both made notable additions this offseason too, and they’ll be bolstered by young centers bound to have breakout seasons next year in Trevor Zegras and Matthew Beniers, respectively. The San Jose Sharks may be the only team at this point squarely out of the playoff conversation, a marked change from last season at this time.

Now we ask you, PHR readers, to make your pick for who will emerge from the pack and win next year’s Pacific Division title. Make sure to vote in the poll below and explain in the comments!

Mobile users, click here to vote!

Calvin Thurkauf Signs Long-Term Extension In Switzerland

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Columbus Blue Jackets draft pick and prospect Calvin Thurkauf has signed a long-term extension that will make him a part of HC Lugano through the 2028-29 season, according to the team. The deal will keep Thurkauf at home in his native Switzerland for the foreseeable future and likely closes the book on his potential as a future piece of the Blue Jackets build.

Thurkauf was originally a seventh-round selection of Columbus out of the Kelowna Rockets organization back in 2016. Thurkauf returned to Kelowna after being drafted, breaking out with 33 goals and 37 assists in 60 games for the Rockets in 2016-17, turning pro that offseason. The forward spent three seasons in the Columbus organization, primarily appearing as a member of the AHL’s Cleveland Monsters, putting up 22 goals and 30 assists in 154 games. Though Thurkauf held his own, it wasn’t quite the impact many had hoped for after his impressive run in juniors. Still, it was enough to earn an NHL debut, getting into three games with the Blue Jackets during the 2019-20 season.

Following that season, Thurkauf would head back home, signing with Zug EV, his hometown team. Thurkauf was again solid, now in the Swiss league, putting up five points in 22 games. Ahead of 2021-22, Thurkauf moved on to Lugano, but broke out with 16 goals and 19 assists in 50 games. That effort was enough to help him ink this long-term extension. Though it likely forecloses his NHL career, at least for a while, the contract does give Thurkauf security and the chance to be an impact player in his home country.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Edmonton Oilers

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2022-23 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Edmonton Oilers

Current Cap Hit: $88,531,333 (over the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts:

F Dylan Holloway (two years, $925K)

D Evan Bouchard (two years, $863K)

D Philip Broberg (two years, $863K)

As talented as the high-end players on the Oilers are, the team also possesses a number of exciting young players and prospects. A key player in Edmonton’s continued success is Bouchard, a talented two-way defenseman who had a breakout 2021-22 with 12 goals and 31 assists in 81 games, all career-highs to-date. This season, Bouchard could see increased time at the point on the powerplay. Bouchard’s 2022-23 will have a strong influence on what his next contract looks like, a further breakout setting him up for big money on his next deal, more than likely a bridge for what will be a 23-year-old defenseman.

The eighth-overall pick in 2019, Broberg made his NHL debut last season, getting into 23 games, tallying three points. At 6’3 and 199 pounds, Broberg brings good size to a two-way style of play and should figure to see regular NHL minutes this year. Having two years remaining on his ELC, the 21-year-old will focus on continuing to develop his game to succeed at the NHL level before turning to his next contract in the summer of 2024.

Another of Edmonton’s promising young players, and another former first-round pick, Dylan Holloway made his NHL debut last season in the playoffs, getting into just one game. Though he has virtually no NHL experience, a solid AHL debut last season (22 points in 33 games) and a tight cap situation in Edmonton set the soon-to-be 21-year-old up well to play regularly in the Oilers lineup this season.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry Level:

F Jesse Puljujarvi ($3MM, RFA)*

F Derek Ryan ($1.25MM, UFA)

F Mattias Janmark ($1.25MM, UFA)

F Devin Shore ($850K, UFA)

D Oscar Klefbom ($4.167MM, UFA)

D Slater Koekkoek ($925K, UFA)

G Stuart Skinner ($750K, RFA)*

G Mike Smith ($2.2MM, UFA)

* – Puljujarvi and Skinner will both be arbitration eligible

The most intriguing name on this list is no doubt Puljujarvi, a name that was featured heavily in trade rumors this offseason. Evaluating the player Puljujarvi is and what he is worth is an interesting proposition and one that he and the Oilers will have to chew on over the next year or so, and if they cannot decide, that may simply be up to an arbitrator. The former fourth-overall pick didn’t have the start to his career he and Edmonton had hoped for, but after returning to the NHL, he began to find a rhythm, scoring a career-high 36 points this season. If he wants big money, he’ll have to take another step forward this season, but even if Puljujarvi simply repeats, Edmonton will have to accept his legitimate market value. Given the tricky negotiations this summer, seeing the two sides head to arbitration next offseason wouldn’t necessarily be a shocking turn of events.

Ryan, Janmark and Shore all represent a similar brand of player: depth forwards who can play all 200 feet on the ice. All three also come at a particularly affordable price tag and with Edmonton facing tough cap decisions in the coming years, having pieces like these are incredibly valuable. Still, a team with this cap situation may have to sacrifice some veteran depth in lieu of younger, even more affordable talent. This won’t be an issue for Edmonton given the group of young players coming through their system. It’s unlikely any of these three will increase significantly in value this year, so should the team choose to keep one or two around, the door should be open.

Koekkoek, much like the three veteran forwards, is an important depth piece for the Oilers who could give way to younger talent. The 28-year-old is one of four left-handed defensemen on the active roster behind Broberg, Brett Kulak, and Darnell Nurse (Klefbom is likely headed to LTIR) and figures as the team’s seventh-defenseman. With Smith’s expected retirement (likely LTIR this season), Skinner slots in as the Oilers’ backup goaltender. Skinner is somewhat of an exciting option in the role, entering his age-24 season, he has been a highly-regarded prospect in Edmonton’s system and has just 14 games of NHL experience, though he’s impressed in that span.

Signed Through 2023-24:

F Kailer Yamamoto ($3.1MM, RFA)*

F Warren Foegele ($2.75MM, UFA)

D Tyson Barrie ($4.5MM, UFA)

Yamamoto has had an up-and-down career so far, but has the potential to be another among Edmonton’s group of dynamic forwards. After a pair of relatively unimpressive NHL stints as a 19 and 20-year-old, Yamamoto broke out with a strong 26 points in 27 games in 2019-20 and appeared to be another weapon for the Oilers, however he regressed to just 21 points in 52 games the year after. This season, the playmaking winger seemed to rebound with 41 points in 81 games, his 20 goals a career-high, but it still wasn’t the performance 2019-20 saw from him. Now almost 24, Yamamoto signed a two-year, $3.1MM contract this offseason. His performance on this deal will likely dictate whether he is viewed as the star many believed he could be, or a solid option for secondary offense in a team’s middle-six.

At 26, Foegele has established himself as a reliable secondary scorer and gritty two-way winger. Traded to Edmonton for Ethan Bear last summer, Foegele continued to bring his effective game over from Carolina. Although he’s not the most exciting player on the Oilers, Edmonton has two years remaining of a valuable role-playing forward that just about every Stanley Cup Champion seems to have at least one of. As the Oilers look to secure a Cup of their own, Foegele will play a key piece.

A longtime Colorado Avalanche star, Tyson Barrie struggled after being traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2019-20. After that season, Toronto let him walk and Barrie signed a one-year deal in Edmonton. That turned out to not only be a great decision for Barrie, but also for Edmonton. The veteran defenseman rebounded strongly in 2020-21, recording 48 points in 56 games. He wasn’t as dynamic this year, with just 41 points in 73 games, but nonetheless found himself a key contributor in Oil Country. As Edmonton works around their cap situation, Barrie could be a casualty, more likely traded as opposed to bought out (if at all), given their depth of offensive talent on their blueline, specifically in that of Bouchard. Should he finish his deal in Edmonton, he may price himself out, especially if he continues to impress as one of the league’s highly-regarded powerplay specialists.

* – Yamamoto will be arbitration eligible

Signed Through 2024-25:

F Leon Draisaitl ($8.5MM, UFA)

D Cody Ceci ($3.25MM, UFA)

Frankly, there’s not much to say about Draisaitl. One of the game’s very best players with a very good chance to be Hall of Fame bound when all is said and done, his three years at $8.5MM per season isn’t cheap, but represents some of the best value in the NHL today. The German-born forward will spend those next three years trying to add a Stanley Cup to his resume and continue to build value for when he hits the UFA market just a few months before turning 30.

Like some other players on this list, Ceci has had himself a bit of an up-and-down career. Prior to the 2020-21 season, the Pittsburgh Penguins signed him to a one-year deal, where he took a big step forward, becoming a reliable shut-down defenseman in Pittsburgh. The Penguins ultimately let Ceci walk, however, and he signed in Edmonton on a four-year, $13MM contract.  The contract was met with some skepticism, however Ceci continued his impressive play, showing his resurgence was no fluke. Now a part of the organization’s long-term plans, Ceci becomes part of a formidable right-side alongside Barrie and Bouchard.

Signed Through 2025-26 Or Longer:

F Connor McDavid ($12.5MM through 2025-26)

F Zach Hyman ($5.5MM through 2027-28)

F Evander Kane ($5.125MM through 2025-26)

F Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($5.125MM through 2028-29)

D Brett Kulak ($2.75MM through 2025-26)

D Darnell Nurse ($9.125MM through 2029-30)

G Jack Campbell ($5MM through 2026-27)

Put simply, the Oilers have their core locked-up for a longtime. Looking at it one way, having seven roster players signed for at least the next four years, including arguably the best player in the world, puts a team in an enviable position, setting them up for several runs at the Stanley Cup. On the other hand, one could say it handcuffs the team in salary cap for at least that duration, preventing it from making any substantial moves to take another step. With Edmonton, that issue is ripe for debate.

In the first instance, the team has McDavid and Draisaitl together for the next three seasons guaranteed, cementing one of the greatest duo’s in league history. Add to them a top-pair defenseman in Darnell Nurse as well as secondary scoring in Hyman, Kane, and Nugent-Hopkins, all signed at least through the three-year window the organization has with the two superstars. Another asset the team hasn’t had in their recent history is a true number-one, All Star goaltender, which they now have signed long-term as well in that of Campbell. Even if the situation is less than ideal several years from now, the organization has all the pieces to make a few runs at a championship now, not to mention a pipeline of younger players, many of whom are still in the development stages.

From the other lens, the Oilers only have Draisaitl signed for three more seasons, who will then be due a massive raise, and McDavid for four more seasons, who may also be due a raise from his $12.5MM AAV. The players signed with real length are Hyman, Nugent-Hopkins, and Nurse, all of whom are talented, but aren’t the front-line stars that McDavid and Draisaitl are. Their cap hits, especially Nurse’s, could actually serve as roadblocks to extending the two superstars, and even if not, it may prevent the team from keeping their younger players or replacing others when their deals expire.

Ultimately, if the team can bring home a Stanley Cup, the poor cap situation it might find itself in down the road won’t be as sore of a subject – just ask the Tampa Bay Lightning. However, this analysis is looking ahead and projecting, and though a Cup or two makes things look better, when mapping out a salary cap structure over the next decade or so, one can guarantee the money, but not the championship.

Buyouts:

F James Neal (three years, $1.917MM)

D Andrej Sekera (one year, $1.5MM)

Retained Salary Transactions:

F Milan Lucic (one year, $750K)

Still To Sign:

F Ryan McLeod

This year was McLeod’s first full NHL season, recording 21 points in 71 games, with a brief stint in the AHL mixed in. The 22-year-old was one of Edmonton’s more important bott0m-six forwards and figures to play a prominent role with that group for years to come. Because he had just 21 points this season, and only one in 10 games in 2020-21, he won’t see too much of a raise over his ELC, however seeing as Edmonton is already over the salary cap and only has around $300K to offer once Klefbom and Smith are put on LTIR, finding a way to squeeze McLeod’s contract in will be a challenge regardless of the cost.

Best Value: Leon Draisaitl

Worst Value: Darnell Nurse

Looking Ahead:

Considering how little space the Oilers have to re-sign McLeod and the LTIR being used, they figure to have trouble managing the cap this season, limiting the flexibility they will have. But, with the talent the team possesses, few would blame them for believing they could utilize the group they have in front of them now to pursue the Stanley Cup.

Since the team has its core locked in for the most part over the next three years, they’ve set themselves up well, at least to avoid losing any key pieces while their window is open. When the salary cap ceiling increases in the next coupe of seasons, the organization will find increased financial flexibility, however much of this may be needed to re-sign their big two up front. Overall, the short-term future, even if complicated and with slim margins, is very promising for Edmonton, primarily having two of the league’s best players as a part of that payroll. The long-term projection does look a little troublesome in five or six years, but may be worthwhile so that Edmonton can open it’s window wide for a few seasons right now.

PHR Mailbag: Standings, Ottawa’s Defense, O’Reilly, Predictions, Sabres, Flyers

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Topics in this edition of the mailbag include Ottawa’s back end, what’s next for the captain of the Blues, Philadelphia’s future, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

W H Twittle: The 2023 draft promises top-end talent with the first five picks: Bedard, Michkov, Fantilli, Dvorsky, and Yager not to mention Benson, Ritchie, and Danielsson. With their current rosters and notwithstanding the lottery which teams will finish in the bottom five this coming season? Chicago, Arizona, San Jose, Montreal, and Philadelphia?

I think it’s safe to put Chicago and Arizona in there.  But those are the only two truly obvious ones.

Montreal finished dead last and their back end is now worse.  That’s typically a recipe for a lot more losing but a full year under Martin St. Louis and a better forward group than they finished up with could push them out of the bottom five.  For this exercise, I’d still put them there but it’s not as obvious a choice as it might seem.

I get the temptation to put Philadelphia there but I think John Tortorella will give them a bit of a boost.  Not enough to get into the playoffs, mind you, but they’ll be better than this level.  Instead of a Metropolitan team, I’d put another Atlantic squad in and say Buffalo.  Yes, their young core did well down the stretch but their goaltending is going to cost them a lot of games.  Between that and it being a tougher division with Detroit and Ottawa both improving and I could see the Sabres sliding back into the bottom five.

As for a team from the Pacific, I’d lean towards the Sharks finishing at the basement but I’d also have Seattle in that mix.  The Kraken improved this summer but they still are going to struggle mightily when it comes to scoring which will offset some of the eventual improvement between the pipes.  Let’s go with San Jose here at this point but it’s far from a given.

Of course, we’re still six weeks away from rosters being finalized so things could definitely change between now and then.

jdgoat: Does Ottawa still make a move for a top-four defenseman or are they going to have to hope a young player is able to step up and take that spot?

We know they want to do that but there’s basically only one available on the trade market in Jakob Chychrun and the asking price is too steep for their liking.  Between Jake Sanderson, Lassi Thomson, and Jacob Bernard-Docker, at least one of them should be ready at camp and by midseason, another one might be ready so the internal option makes the most sense.

There are two ways to upgrade the top four.  The most common one is to add a top-four player but I also believe that upgrading the third pairing upgrades the top four.  If the floor of the third pairing improves and all of a sudden can take on a bigger role, that’s less pressure for the top guys and over time, it’s a little less wear and tear on a cumulative level and a little less on an in-game basis as well.  That’s a worthwhile improvement as well and is typically easier to do than to add a proven top-four option.

I’ve mentioned this before when discussing Detroit but it applies to Ottawa as well.  Teams rarely go from missing the playoffs to contenders right away and there’s some value in seeing what your youngsters are going to do in the heat of a playoff race and perhaps a playoff round.  From there, then the GM can go and add that final piece based on what they saw actually happened with their youngsters compared to what they think will happen if they made that move now.  My sense is that they’d be better off going with what they have on the back end to start the year and if they hold their own, let them go through the playoff run and then reassess the state of the defense corps from there.  But if the asking price for Chychrun drops a bit, I probably wouldn’t fault Dorion for going to get him if a trade wound up materializing.

Gmm8811: Looking into the crystal ball and wondering about your thoughts on Ryan O’Reilly? Contract is coming up and we all know Doug Armstrong is not afraid to let a captain walk if he perceives the value to be too high. I’m fairly sure there’s no prospects in the pipeline that has all the intangibles to bring to the table that ROR has. Then there’s the Tarasenko thing.

In a perfect world, there’s a pathway to bringing O’Reilly back.  That perfect world includes him taking a notable cut in pay which isn’t something I’m sure he’s willing to do, at least to the extent that would likely be needed.

The good news, however, is that even if he was to leave, St. Louis would still be in pretty good shape down the middle.  Robert Thomas has an eight-year extension in place already and Brayden Schenn has six years left on his current deal.  That could very well be their one-two punch for a while and would go a long way towards easing some of the concerns about not having a key middleman in the pipeline that’s close to being ready for an impact role.

If O’Reilly wanted to take a couple million less on his current deal and sign for around $5.5MM on a medium-term contract, I think Armstrong would find a way to make that work.  That’s a premium for a third center but those three comprise one of the stronger center groups in the league so why wouldn’t they want to keep that together?

You mention Vladimir Tarasenko whose contract is up and with his trade request still believed to be intact, it’s hard to envision an extension.  The problem is that they’ve already spent most of his expiring deal on Thomas and Jordan Kyrou is a year away from a big contract of his own.  Even if Tarasenko wanted to stay on a market-value deal, that would be tricky to accomplish.

If I had to guess, I think O’Reilly would leave a little money on the table to stay but there will be a sizable market for his services if he wants to go to free agency.  I don’t think the Blues will be able to afford him at market value so it will be tough for them to keep him around unless Armstrong moves out a contract of note first.  I do expect they’ll push hard to find a way to make it work though as he’d be a tough player to lose.

The Duke: All-seeing, -knowing, and -telling Crystal Ball: Who are your top-four candidates to become can’t-miss 30-goal scorers; top-three scoring defensemen + top-three standout goalies from the recent draft? Bonus Q: is UPL or Devon Levi the Sabres’ goalie of the future?

Forwards: The big three from the top of the draft projections – Shane Wright, Juraj Slafkovsky, and Logan Cooley are the obvious ones to choose from.  If we’re talking about can’t-miss players before they even play an NHL game, the logical choices are the top picks.  Joakim Kemell (17th to Buffalo) might not be a can’t-miss guy but he should have some 30-goal seasons under his belt and is an early candidate to outperform his draft position.

Defensemen: Simon Nemec is the obvious choice so let’s go with him first.  I think David Jiricek will be the next best defender in terms of value but he might not be a huge point producer.  Denton Mateychuk is someone that should be an offensive threat at the next level so let’s put him here and Pavel Mintyukov’s aggression will get him into trouble defensively at times but it’ll help him put up points in the NHL so he should be one of the top-scoring blueliners from this class.

Goalies: The crystal ball spat out a different answer for this one – NA as in not applicable (or no answer).  Honestly, I’m not sure there’s one standout goalie from this draft class let alone three.  Sure, the odd one will probably see some time as a backup but if none of them became NHL starters, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least.  This was not a good class for puck stoppers.

Bonus: I’ve always been a Levi fan.  Yes, he’s small but he stops a lot of pucks and wins a lot of games and no matter your size, that combination is enticing. I think he can be a starter in the NHL and I’m not sure Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is a 1A starter down the road.  I’d lean Levi here but a tandem with a 45/37 split or something like that is what I think their long-term preference would be.

Nha Trang: Heh, why not go whole hog? Who wins the Cup this season, and who wins the scoring race?

I’ll even recycle a question from last year, which Brian killed, if you run short of questions: what guy comes out of nowhere to dish out an unexpected career year?

First, thanks for the reminder that sometimes a prediction (Tage Thompson) actually turns out to be right.  (For anyone looking for a reminder of the last one that went wrong, just click the link to last weekend’s column at the top of this article as Lou Lamoriello made my guess about the Islanders look bad in a hurry.)

For the scoring race, Connor McDavid has won it four times in the last six seasons.  I see no reason for him not to make it five in seven.  I don’t want to go with two obvious picks in a row so I’ll go a different road for a Cup winner – how about Carolina?  I think they’re a bit weaker now than a year ago but they have a lot of young players with room for improvement to help offset that.  They’ll get a top scorer back late in the year to really deepen their attack and their back end is still quite strong.  Teams can win without elite goaltending so the Hurricanes could pull it off and it will help that the Metropolitan is probably the easiest division to come out of; while there are a lot of good teams, there aren’t any great ones.

Thompson wasn’t in the top 300 in scoring the year before I picked him to let’s use that as a cut-off point to pick from; anyone above that isn’t really coming out of nowhere anyway.  Out of who’s left, Blackhawks winger Taylor Raddysh jumps out (and happens to be the same age as Thompson).  He was more or less an afterthought in the Brandon Hagel trade with the two first-rounders getting the attention but he got a bigger role down the stretch and notched 10 points in 21 games after the swap.  There’s a good chance he’s in their top six in 2022-23 and with him being one of their younger forwards, he’ll get some leeway if things don’t do well early on.  Is he going to have a year like Thompson did last season?  Probably not but Raddysh is someone that’s under the radar that could wind up as one of their top scorers.

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Snapshots: Kane, White, Red Wings

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With the Blackhawks clearly embarking on a large-scale rebuild, there has been an expectation that long-time star winger Patrick Kane will be on the move.  However, Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli reports (audio link) that the veteran isn’t interested in being traded this offseason.  Instead, if a deal is going to happen, it will come closer to the trade deadline.  From a cap standpoint, that would be more palatable for contending teams when three-quarters of his $10.5MM will be paid off.  Kane has full control over where he moves but it appears that move won’t be coming for a while yet.

Elsewhere around the hockey world:

  • Panthers center Colin White told Ian Mendes of The Athletic (subscription link) that his preference this summer was to sign a one-year contract over pursuing a multi-year agreement on the open market. Some had speculated he’d follow long-time agent Kent Hughes to Montreal and while White mentioned he gave some consideration to doing so, he decided that it was more important to go to a winning team.  While White is coming off a pair of injury-plagued seasons, the 25-year-old could be an upside signing for Florida on his one-year, $1.2MM deal.
  • While extension talks between the Red Wings and Dylan Larkin clearly haven’t resulted in a new deal yet, MLive’s Ansar Khan believes an agreement, whenever it does get reached, should give the Michigan native maximum term and an AAV in the $8MM range. The 26-year-old isn’t the prototypical number one center from an offensive standpoint as he has never reached the point-per-game mark but he has logged more than 20 minutes a game on average over the past five seasons.  If a deal does get done in that price range, it would represent a roughly $2MM increase on what Larkin is making now.
  • Robert Mastrosimone’s decision to leave Boston University for Arizona State University raised some eyebrows but Khan notes in a separate column that the Red Wings were on board with the idea of him transferring. The 21-year-old was a second-round pick in 2019 (52nd overall) and was coming off a good season with the Terriers that saw him put up 25 points in 34 games but he should have an opportunity for a bigger role with the Sun Devils next season in the hopes that a good showing will give him an entry-level deal.

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