The Ottawa Senators have two preseason games left. This Thursday against the Montreal Canadiens, and Saturday against the Toronto Maple Leafs. Right now, it looks like they may not have star forward Brady Tkachuk for either of them.
Tkachuk is the final major restricted free agent left to sign this offseason after his most recent training partners, Quinn Hughes and Elias Pettersson, both signed multi-year deals with the Vancouver Canucks. Neither of those contracts, which were six and three years in length respectively, seem to be what the Senators are looking for in their negotiation with Tkachuk. Andy Strickland of Bally Sports Midwest tweets that Ottawa is “set” on only signing Tkachuk to a seven or eight-year deal.
One of the closest comparables to Tkachuk in terms of age and production was Andrei Svechnikov, who reached an eight-year contract with the Carolina Hurricanes in August. The two were both picked at the top of the 2018 draft, and have similar numbers through their first 200 NHL games (Svechnikov has one less goal but 15 more points in seven more games). The simple fact is though that not many premium restricted free agents are signing deals of that length for their second contract, instead trying to maximize earning potential by selling off fewer years of unrestricted free agency. That can be a nice compromise for most teams, given they also have salary cap concerns to worry about and a shorter deal keeps the cap hit down, but Ottawa isn’t really in that situation.
The Senators have more cap space than any other team in the league, as they currently sit below the cap floor. It makes sense then that they would want to lock in Tkachuk for as long as possible, as they did with Thomas Chabot in 2019 when they signed him to an eight-year, $64MM contract extension. Given their history of losing key players in free agency (or, rather trading them away as they approached it), buying out as many years as they can now is likely their best option. Avoiding a bridge deal, which would open up the path to arbitration in a few seasons, also seems prudent for a team that works on an internal budget.
But this season was also about turning the corner for Ottawa, moving away from the complete rebuild, and starting to play competitive hockey. Without Tkachuk in the lineup, their roster suddenly doesn’t look like it is ready to take that next step. Missing training camp and the start of the season has different effects on every player but has negatively impacted the performance of many in the past. The Senators have already accepted that risk as Tkachuk has missed most of camp, but if they don’t want him to miss many games they have just a few days left to find a compromise of some sort.
Though it is a long way away, one date to remember is December 1, when restricted free agents must be signed by if they are to play at all. In 2018, William Nylander and the Toronto Maple Leafs made a deal at the very last second on his current six-year contract, which allowed him to suit up for the rest of the season. He had a dreadful year, scoring just seven goals in 54 games, and both sides expressed regret that they didn’t get something done sooner. There’s plenty of time to avoid that situation, but once the season begins, December comes quickly.
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