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Snapshots: Eichel, Devils, HHOF

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When reports surfaced about Jack Eichel’s potential availability this summer, the first team that came to many minds was the New York Rangers. The Rangers have enough young assets to land the Buffalo Sabres center and are now focused on making the playoffs after a short rebuild. Today, Larry Brooks of the New York Post writes that the Rangers have had preliminary talks with the Sabres about Eichel and that the asking price is currently “four pieces that would be equivalent of first-rounders.” The Sabres have also, according to Brooks, not yet granted any medical record access to interested teams.

Obviously, an asking price isn’t necessarily indicative of what will eventually land a player in trade talks, but that report from Brooks shows just how high the Sabres are setting their sights in this negotiation. The team is dealing with a distressed asset, as Eichel has expressed frustration with the team over a difference in medical opinions, but will still not simply give him away. The biggest question mark surrounding the $10MM center is the health of his neck, which still may require surgery this offseason. Eventually, teams will have to get their hands on his medical records and determine how much risk is involved in an acquisition beyond just his recent on-ice struggles.

  • The New Jersey Devils are in the market for a young defenseman and would consider trading the fourth-overall pick, according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet. The Devils have selected in the top ten three times in the last few years, taking Nico Hischier (first overall, 2017), Jack Hughes (first, 2019), and Alexander Holtz (seventh, 2020) in the early part of the first round. Perhaps that makes this year’s pick a little more expendable, especially with the uncertainty surrounding the 2021 class. Any trade that happens in the next few weeks has expansion draft implications, but as we examined recently, the Devils have a real opportunity to add defensemen with no risk of losing them to the Seattle Kraken.
  • The Hockey Hall of Fame is preparing to move forward with its 2020-21 induction ceremony on November 15th, though the actual event will be moved to a new venue. Ken Holland, Jarome Iginla, Kim St-Pierre, Marian Hossa, Kevin Lowe, and Doug Wilson were announced as the class of 2020 last year, but because of COVID-related closures, were never actually inducted. The HHOF decided not to induct a new class for 2021 but will return to its normal voting procedure for next year.

2021 Offer Sheet Compensation

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Though still rare, we did see an offer sheet make an impact in the 2019 offseason as the Montreal Canadiens signed Sebastian Aho to a five-year deal. It was quickly matched by the Carolina Hurricanes, meaning Aho stayed put and the team had to turn down a big package of draft picks that Montreal would have had to surrender.

Offer sheet compensation is based on the average salary of the league, and Elliotte Friedman included the thresholds for this year in his latest 31 Thoughts column for Sportsnet. Below is the full breakdown, with the contract’s average annual value placing it in one of seven tiers:

$1,356,540 or less No compensation
$1,356,540 to $2,055,364 Third-round pick
$2,055,364 to $4,110,732 Second-round pick
$4,110,732 to $6,166,096 First and third-round picks
$6,166,096 to $8,221,463 First, second and third-round picks
$8,221,463 to $10,276,829 Two firsts, a second and third-round picks
Over $10,276,829 Four first-round picks

For the first time in quite a while, these thresholds actually decreased from last offseason, thanks to the pandemic-related squeeze on player contracts. The average league salary finished at $2,960,905 according to Friedman, an 11.6% fall from 2019-20. Because of that decrease, the numbers for compensation have similarly fallen; last offseason, you could sign a player up to a $1,439,820 AAV without being required to give up any compensation.

It is important to note that any team trying to sign a player to an applicable offer sheet must use their own draft picks for compensation, not ones that have been acquired. That rules several teams out already from signing high-profile RFAs unless they were to work to reacquire their picks before submitting the contract. An offer sheet’s average annual value is also calculated slightly differently than a normal contract; if the contract is of a length greater than five years, the total salary is still divided by five to determine the AAV. That would mean a seven-year contract worth $8MM per season would actually carry an AAV of $11.2MM for purposes of offer sheet compensation.

There are some restricted free agents, like Vancouver’s Quinn Hughes, that have not accumulated enough time in the NHL to be eligible for an offer sheet. For more information about the details of offer sheets, check out CapFriendly’s FAQ.

Seattle Kraken Announce AHL Partnership For 2021-22

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The Seattle Kraken will have an AHL team all to their own, but it won’t happen until 2022-23. That’s when the Palm Springs AHL franchise is set to start play, meaning the Kraken needed to find a partnership for the upcoming season. That agreement has now been announced with the Charlotte Checkers, the primary affiliate of the Florida Panthers. The Checkers will serve as the development stop for both Kraken and Panthers prospects next season.

Rick Olczyk, the Kraken assistant general manager, explained that his team will supply between eight and 12 players to the Checkers, including one goaltender. Those players will come from the initial expansion draft as well as free agent or trade acquisitions. Most of the players selected in the upcoming entry draft will not be eligible for AHL action, provided their respective leagues get underway as planned.

This was an obvious connection, given Kraken GM Ron Francis’ history with the Checkers during his time with the Carolina Hurricanes. For years, the Checkers were the AHL affiliate for Carolina, and Charlotte CEO Michael Kahn expressed his excitement about this new agreement:

We are excited to work with Ron Francis again as we help develop the inaugural group of Seattle Kraken prospects. We feel the partnership between ourselves, the Kraken and our primary affiliate, the Florida Panthers, will give the Checkers a strong pool of players for the upcoming season.

This is the same setup that the Vegas Golden Knights went through in their first year, before buying and relocating an AHL franchise to Henderson. Expansion teams do not have long enough depth charts to really fill out an AHL roster in the first year, meaning a development partnership like this is more than enough. Obviously, once Palm Springs is up and running it will be more beneficial to have their prospects and depth options closer to Seattle, but for now, those names will be playing on the other side of the country in Charlotte.

Montreal’s Joel Armia Cleared From COVID Protocol

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June 28: Armia was not present at morning skate, but is on a private jet to Tampa according to interim head coach Luke Richardson. Armia has been cleared from the COVID protocol and is a game-time decision. Evans was a full participant and is no longer wearing a non-contact sweater, according to Chris Johnston of Sportsnet.

June 27: On the eve of the Stanley Cup Final, the Montreal Canadiens have issued some bad news. Forward Joel Armia was absent at practice on Sunday morning and without any previous indication of injury, the speculation began. GM Marc Bergevin confirmed the prevailing theory to the media afterward: Armia is in COVID Protocol.

Bergevin did not reveal any additional details, but an update is expected on Monday. In the meantime, Armia did not travel to Tampa with the team for the first two games of the series. Whether it would be an option for him to travel separately if cleared from the protocol remains to be seen. This is now the second time that Armia has landed on the COVID Protocol Related Absences list, following a previous stint in March. At that time, he tested positive and the Canadiens had a number of games postponed. So far, there has been no indication that Armia’s current situation will impact the Stanley Cup Final schedule.

Of course, the current concern with interim head coach Dominique Ducharme testing positive last week and sidelined for 14 days, is that Armia’s status could be more than just a case of a false positive or close contact. If Armia is positive for COVID, it would mean the end of his season with just seven games left in the NHL year. Armia, who only recorded 14 points in the regular season, has taken his game to the next level in the playoffs. He has eight points in 17 games and is tied for the team lead in goals. The presence he brings to both the third line and penalty kill will be sorely missed if he cannot play at all in the series. The Canadiens hope that tomorrow’s update will bring different news.

The thin silver lining of the report today is that Jake Evans appears primed to step into Armia’s spot in the starting lineup for the time being. Evans has not played since being injured in Game One of the North Division title series with the Winnipeg Jets, but appears to have made a full recovery from the massive check that knocked him out. Despite the scoring presence lost by Armia, the Habs seems more interested in replacing his two-way ability with Evans than adding an offensive asset like Tomas Tatar. 

Minor Transactions: 06/28/21

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The Stanley Cup Finals will start this evening, with the Tampa Bay Lightning defending their crown against the Montreal Canadiens. That means 30 NHL teams (welcome, Seattle) are working on the offseason already, not to mention all the other organizations around the world that will be tweaking rosters and inking deals. Like always, we’ll keep track of the notable minor moves right here.

  • The Lehigh Valley Phantoms are set to bring back two familiar faces, as Tony Androckitis of Inside AHL Hockey reports that the team will soon sign Cal O’Reilly and Garrett Wilson. Both will be returning on AHL deals after serving in the major leadership roles this season. O’Reilly, 34, was the team’s captain, scoring four goals and 23 points in 32 games, while Wilson wore an “A” and provided his usual physical presence.
  • The Laval Rocket have signed Kevin Poulin to a one-year AHL contract for 2021-22, giving them some extra goaltending depth for next year. Poulin, who many will remember served as the starting goaltender for Canada at the 2018 Olympics, spent last season in Sweden playing for IF Bjorkloven. A veteran of 50 career NHL games, the 31-year-old Montreal native will be coming home for next season.
  • Jermaine Loewen has earned an extension with the AHL’s Henderson Silver Knights. The Athletic’s Jesse Granger reports that Loewen has inked a new one-year deal with the team following his second pro season. The Jamaican-born forward has mostly played an enforcer role in the pros, but is hoping to tap into that scoring ability he showed in the WHL.

Five Key Stories: 6/21/21 – 6/27/21

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The final full week of June has come and gone with the Stanley Cup Final being set between Montreal and Tampa Bay.  Meanwhile, there was some notable news off the ice as well which is highlighted in the key stories of the week.

Gunnarsson Retires: Veteran defenseman Carl Gunnarsson has decided to call it a career at the age of 34.  A right knee injury limited him to just a dozen games with the Blues this season so his career wraps up with 138 points in 629 regular season games between Toronto and St. Louis.  Of course, he’ll best be remembered by St. Louis fans for his game-winning overtime goal in the second game of the 2019 Stanley Cup Final.  It winds up being his only postseason tally in 82 games but it was certainly a critical one as it helped lead the Blues to the title.

Armia Enters COVID Protocol: The Canadiens could be without winger Joel Armia for the Stanley Cup Final as he has entered COVID protocol.  The 28-year-old missed more than two weeks back in March following a positive test and if he has indeed tested positive again (more information is expected on Monday), he’ll miss the entire series.  Armia has been an important piece of their surprising run, tying for the team lead in goals with five, including a pair of shorthanded tallies.  Meanwhile, Montreal will soon get their head coach back as Dominique Ducharme will return for the third game of the series after testing positive for the virus last round.

Hakstol Hired: There were several different coaches linked to Seattle but Dave Hakstol wasn’t one of them.  However, in the end, he was GM Ron Francis’ pick as the Kraken’s inaugural head coach after a lengthy search.  This will be Hakstol’s second go-round as an NHL head coach as he spent three years behind the bench with Philadelphia; while they made the playoffs twice in that span, they were also eliminated in the first round both times.  He spent the last two years as an assistant with Toronto and has head coaching experience in the NCAA and USHL as well.  Francis wanted someone with NHL experience and while Hakstol was certainly under the radar, he is certainly an intriguing hire for the expansion franchise.

Exempt From Expansion: The NHL released the list of players who have medically been ruled exempt from the upcoming expansion draft.  These are players who are not expected to play again due to long-term or chronic injury and features some that have effectively retired such as Chicago’s Brent Seabrook and Andrew Shaw and players that haven’t played in several years including Tampa Bay’s Marian Gaborik and Arizona’s Marian Hossa.  Vancouver’s Micheal Ferland is one that’s still under contract and a return hasn’t been ruled out that was deemed exempt from selection as is Winnipeg’s Bryan Little although a return for him remains highly unlikely at this point.

Kurvers Passes Away: Minnesota assistant GM Tom Kurvers passed away at the age of 58 following a valiant battle with lung cancer.  He was diagnosed more than two years ago but retailed his role in the front office during that time.  Kurvers had an 11-year NHL playing career, suiting up in 659 games with seven different franchises before beginning an even longer journey off the ice.  From 1998 through to this past week, he worked in several different capacities, working his way up from a scout to an assistant GM, making him a hockey lifer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Florida Panthers

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The offseason is in full flight with only two teams still standing.  We continue our series which examines what those eliminated teams need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Florida.

Expectations were relatively low for Florida heading into the season.  While GM Bill Zito made some changes, they weren’t expected to be a team that was going to contend.  However, they wound up being one point out of the Central Division lead and were only three away from tying for the league lead.  While they were ousted in the opening round by Tampa Bay, they’re still entering the summer with some momentum.  Here’s a look at what Zito should be trying to accomplish over the coming months.

Clear Out A Contract

At the end of their series against the Lightning, two of Florida’s three highest-paid players – goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky and defenseman Keith Yandle – weren’t even in uniform.  Anton Stralman, who is sixth on that list, cleared waivers during the season and had more of a limited role than usual.  That’s nearly $22MM on their books (about 30% of their payroll) either sitting on the bench or not living up to expectations.  On a team that isn’t spending to the Upper Limit already, that’s not ideal.

Bobrovsky’s $10MM AAV for the next five years is going to be difficult to move but if they’re willing to retain a sizable chunk, perhaps there’s a move to be made.  Chris Driedger is a pending UFA that they would like to keep around but as long as Bobrovsky and top prospect Spencer Knight are there, there will be better opportunities for him elsewhere.  Dealing Bobrovsky away, even at a loss in terms of taking back a contract and retaining some money, could allow them to try to keep Driedger around.

Yandle’s ironman streak remains intact at 922 games as playoff contests don’t count.  He sits 42 behind Doug Jarvis for the all-time record but that would appear to be in some jeopardy given that he wasn’t in the lineup when it mattered the most.  Both sides looked at the possibility of a change of scenery back in training camp when it looked like he’d be on the outside looking in and it may be time to revisit that.  With two years left at $6.35MM, it’s another negative-value contract but Yandle certainly can still contribute offensively as long as he’s sheltered in a lower role on the depth chart.  It’d be a swap of bad contracts but it might still be worth doing.

As for Stralman, he only has one year left at $5.5MM and he can still play in a limited role so he is probably the easiest to move of the three, relatively speaking.  A trade with max retention would be preferable to a buyout (which would cost $2.5MM in 2021-22 and $1.5MM in 2022-23) and could potentially still free up some money in the process.

As a budget team, there are already restrictions in place.  Those can’t be compounded by deadweight contracts.  It won’t be easy for Zito to accomplish but they can’t have that much money tied up in negative-value deals if they want to take a step forward.

Barkov Extension Talks

This is the biggest item on their to-do list.  Captain Aleksander Barkov is about to enter the final year of his six-year, $35.4MM contract, a deal that has been among the most team-friendly pacts around the league in recent years.  When second-line centers are getting that type of money, getting one of the best all-around pivots in the league at that price tag is quite the bargain.

That will soon change, however.  The 25-year-old is set to hit the open market next summer in the prime of his career and with it, his price tag is going to shoot up considerably.  Forget the flat salary cap and how it knocked down a lot of the UFA market back in the fall.  The top players still got paid pretty much top dollar and Barkov is very much a top player.  It’s rare that players like him actually make it to free agency so there will undoubtedly be a bidding war if he gets there.  He knows it and so does Zito.

As a result, expect Florida to put their best foot forward in the coming months to lock up their franchise player to a max-term deal at a price tag that will almost certainly hit eight figures.  We know cap space won’t be an issue since they’re not particularly close to the Upper Limit anyway but this is the type of player they need to break their budget to keep around.

The lingering question will be what do they do if they can’t agree on a contract or Barkov indicates that he’s not willing to sign, similar to what Seth Jones has done in Columbus.  It’s a scenario they certainly won’t want to think about but if it happens, Zito will have to react quickly to decide whether they should trade Barkov now or hope he changes his mind in-season.  But first things first.  Before even pondering that scenario, they’ll be extending a significant extension offer to try to keep the Selke winner around.

Add Defensive Help

The back end has been an area of concern for Florida for a while and that was highlighted even more this season.  Aaron Ekblad’s season-ending leg fracture was a huge blow down the stretch and the fact that Yandle and Stralman underachieved considerably certainly didn’t help either.  MacKenzie Weegar had a breakout year and Gustav Forsling logged nearly 20 minutes a game as a waiver claim but that was about it for positives.

The Panthers are in a spot where they could conceivably add two or three defenders this summer and it wouldn’t feel like overkill.  Deadline acquisition Brandon Montour, a pending unrestricted free agent, will need to be re-signed or replaced and at a minimum, adding a top-four piece would go a long way.

Florida landed the top player in college free agency in Matt Kiersted and he looked okay down the stretch but he’s not ready for full-time NHL duty yet; he’ll need some time in the minors.  There aren’t any other prospects that are ready to step into a regular role either so the improvement will need to come from outside the organization.

Re-Sign RFAs

Florida has a pair of intriguing restricted free agents on their roster.  Winger Anthony Duclair was a surprising non-tender by Ottawa last fall and had to wait nearly two months to land with Florida.  His qualifying offer of $1.65MM is certainly reasonable with the year he had but as was the case last October, arbitration eligibility looms large.  Back in the fall, the threshold to walk away from an award was $4,538,958 and while Duclair had a good season with 10 goals and 22 assists in 43 games, he shouldn’t come in that high.  Do they want to risk him being awarded something they’re not willing to pay and can’t walk away from?  With that uncertainty, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Zito push to try to get something done over the next month before the tender deadline hits.

The other interesting one is Sam Bennett.  With Calgary, it looked like the 25-year-old could be non-tendered over receiving a $2.55MM qualifying offer as he was unhappy and struggling.  Then came a deadline day deal to Florida and he absolutely took off, notching 15 points in 10 regular season games plus five more in five playoff contests.  That’s certainly a small sample size and it will make Bennett’s next contract a little tricky.  Was this a short-term blip or a sign of things to come now that he’s being deployed in a better situation?  Are the two sides sure enough of each other to do a long-term agreement or would a one-year contract make more sense?  At a minimum, he’s a safe bet to be qualified which wasn’t the case just a few months ago.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Minnesota Will Allow Mats Zuccarello To Play In Olympic Qualifiers

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Wild winger Mats Zuccarello has been granted permission from the team to suit up for Norway at the Olympic qualifying tournament this summer, the veteran confirmed to VG’s Oystein Jarlsbo and Helge Mikalsen.  It will be his first time suiting up for the national team since 2017.

The 33-year-old is coming off of one of his better seasons statistically, in terms of per-game numbers as he put up 11 goals and 24 assists in 42 games; his 0.83 points per game average tied the highest of his career.  Not surprisingly, he’ll immediately become Norway’s top offensive threat in the tournament.  This will be his second time playing in the Olympic qualifiers with his first attempt coming four years ago where he led the Norwegians in scoring with five points in three games.

There are three sets of Olympic qualifying tournaments being held this summer with the winner from each earning the final three spots.  Norway will host a group with South Korea, Slovenia, and Denmark.  Slovakia will host the group with Austria, Belarus, and Poland, while Latvia hosts France, Italy, and Hungary.  There are a handful of NHL players from those countries and those teams will need to decide soon whether or not they will be allowing them to participate like Minnesota has done with Zuccarello.

Free Agent Focus: Chicago Blackhawks

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Free agency is now just a little more than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. The Chicago Blackhawks are one of those teams with numerous RFA’s of note, but fortunately few UFA’s to concern themselves with.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Brandon Hagel – Oftentimes when late-round draft picks produce big numbers later in their junior careers, it is more of a function of experience and maturity than an indicator of NHL ability. It seemed that way with Hagel, who recorded 102 points in his final season in the WHL, but played just one game with the Blackhawks in his first pro season in 2019-20. It doesn’t look that way anymore. Hagel recorded 24 points in 52 games with Chicago as a rookie this year, finishing fifth on the team in scoring. The 22-year-old earned increasingly more ice time and special teams responsibilities as he never slowed down. Hagel looks a like a two-way forward with 20-goal and 40-point upside and that is after only one year. Chicago would be smart to lock him into a multi-year extension before his stock can rise any higher.

F Pius Suter – Another European import, another home run. Just a year after Dominik Kubalik earned Calder Trophy votes as a 24-year-old in his first season in North America, Suter made a major impact in his debut as well. He may not be the same caliber of player as Kubalik, but with 14 goals and 27 points in 55 games he is assuredly an NHL caliber player. The Blackhawks need the depth at center too, where Suter was able to line up without issue. He may have been new to the league, but Suter did not play like a rookie, logging big minutes and finishing fourth in scoring. Chicago has nailed another free agency addition and won’t let this one season be the end of it. However, Suter’s age and arbitration rights give him far more leverage in negotiations than Hagel, a 10.2(c) limited RFA.

D Nikita Zadorov – Unlike Hagel and Suter, Zadorov is not an easy extension. He has a long, up-and-down history, failed to meet expectations in his first season in Chicago, and comes at a much higher price tag. He is also eligible for salary arbitration and has the NHL experience to make it a complicated case. Do the Blackhawks offer Zadorov a qualifying offer? Do they protect him in the Expansion Draft? Do they comply with an arbitration decision? These are all difficult questions when it comes to a player that is hard to peg. Zadorov has considerable experience, great size and checking ability, and plays the position competently enough to eat minutes. However, he also contributes little offensively, is a turnover liability, and is seemingly in decline already at 26. There is no easy answer when it comes to Zadorov, especially in light of the team’s salary cap issues, but Chicago likely will not want to lose him for nothing. By adding Riley Stillman this season, they do have a fallback plan if Zadorov departs, but they would likely prefer that to be on their own terms via trade. If the Blackhawks go through the effort to protect Zadorov from expansion and to negotiate a new contract, they need to be prepared to keep him if a suitable trade offer does not appear.

Other RFAs: F Josh Dickinson, F Adam Gaudette, F David Kampf, D Alexander Nylander

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Vinnie Hinostroza – It didn’t work out in Florida for Hinostroza, who signed a one-year with the Panthers last off-season but played a minor role in just nine games with the team before he was traded. Fortunately, he was dealt back to a team that he was familiar with in Chicago and his performance changed immediately. After a scoreless season in Florida, Hinostroza recorded four goals and 12 points in 17 games down the stretch, far and away the best per-game production of his NHL career. Hinostroza was active on the ice, meshed well with his teammates, and looked like a natural fit back with the Blackhawks. Although he excelled in Chicago, overall it was still a down year for Hinostroza, which could mean he is willing to re-sign at a low price. Yet, over the previous three years, one of which was with the Blackhawks, Hinostroza scored at a close to 40-point full-season pace and his play down the stretch implies he might be able to replicate those numbers if he stays with the team. There should be mutual interest in getting a deal done.

Other UFAs: D Anton Lindholm (Group 6),F Brandon Pirri, F John Quenneville (Group 6), F Zack Smith

Projected Cap Space

Given their salary cap situation, it is good that the Blackhawks’ impact free agents are almost all RFA’s, where the team holds the leverage, and not UFA’s, where the player holds the leverage. Chicago has over $75MM already tied up in 24 contract, per CapFriendly. That number is not exactly a realistic estimate as many of those deals are waiver-exempt entry-level contracts and the combined $10.775MM of Brent Seabrook and Andrew Shaw will be placed on Long-Term Injured Reserve, as neither will play again. However, that still leaves the Blackhawks with less than $17MM in cap space with the aforementioned Gaudette, Hagel, Kampf, Nylander, Suter, and Zadorov all in need of new contracts. That averages out to under $2.8MM per RFA starter, which is likely an unrealistic benchmark. The Seattle Kraken may lighten the RFA load for Chicago, but with Hinostroza also in need of a new deal and the Blackhawks ideally looking to add an impact two-way forward to assist with penalty killing, things are looking tight for the Blackhawks.

Expansion Primer: Minnesota Wild

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

In 2017, the Minnesota Wild protected three defensemen in the Expansion Draft: Jonas Brodin, Jared Spurgeon, and Ryan Suter. This left young standout defenseman Matt Dumba exposed (along with a number of other significant players). Yet, Dumba did not go to the Vegas Golden Knights. Why? Because Minnesota paid the price to keep him safe. Alongside selection Erik Haula, Minnesota also sent impressive young forward Alex Tuch to Vegas. The side deal kept their other players protected, but the Wild have watched as Tuch has blossomed into the power forward they foresaw when selecting him in the first round in 2014. It was a heavy price to pay.

This time around, Brodin, Spurgeon, and Suter will again need to be protected. They are each still top-four defensemen for Minnesota and now they all hold a No-Movement Clause as well, meaning that unless they waive that clause they are required to be protected. Again, this could potentially leave Dumba exposed, a scenario that has put the Wild back in the expansion spotlight more than any other team, seemingly since Seattle was introduced as the future 32nd NHL team. In reality, the Wild cannot and will not give the dynamic defender away for free, so they must find out how to protect Dumba within the confines of their current protection possibilities or else he will be traded.

The goal for the team this year is to find a way within the constructs of the expansion draft rules to mitigate the impact of their expansion loss, rather than forfeit another top prospect or pick in a side deal. With the Dumba situation driving their decisions, a deep forward corps to consider, and a tough question in net, GM Bill Guerin has his work cut out for him. However, the help of one or two veterans could be huge for the Wild in managing to escape this round of expansion without getting too badly hurt.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Zach Parise (NMC), Mats Zuccarello (NMC), Will Bitten, Joel Eriksson Ek, Kevin Fiala, Marcus Foligno, Jordan Greenway, Ryan Hartman, Victor Rask, Dmitry Sokolov, Mason Shaw, Nico Sturm

Defense:
Jonas Brodin (NMC), Jared Spurgeon (NMC), Ryan Suter (NMC), Matt Dumba, Brennan Menell, Carson Soucy

Goalies:
Kaapo Kahkonen, Cam Talbot

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

F Nick Bjugstad, F Nick Bonino, D Ian Cole, F Marcus Johansson

Notable Exemptions

D Calen Addison, F Adam Beckman, F Matthew Boldy, F Mitchell Chaffee, F Kirill Kaprizov, D Ryan O’Rourke, F Marco Rossi

Key Decisions

The first and most important question for the Wild is “can anything be done to change the status quo?” If unchanged, Minnesota faces a very difficult task of escaping expansion unharmed. However, if Guerin can convince any of his players with No-Movement Clauses to waive or can trade one of his otherwise-exposed players for picks and exempt prospects, that would change the calculus of the situation.

If you assume that the team must move ahead as constituted, it locks the Wild into an eight-skater scheme. As noted, Dumba is not going to Seattle for free so if he is not traded or another defenseman does not waive his NMC, then Dumba will be protected as the team’s fourth defender. This makes for a very difficult decision at forward. With just two spots available next to Parise and Zuccarello, Minnesota must pick two of three 24-year-old forwards who all finished in the top five in team scoring this season: Fiala, Greenway, and Eriksson Ek. Fiala, 24, is the most proven young scorer on the team, recording three 20-goal seasons and essentially four 40-point seasons in just five NHL seasons. His RFA status and his slow start in the postseason are unlikely to make a difference; Fiala will be protected. There would really be just one spot open at forward.

As for Eriksson Ek versus Greenway, the decision is much tighter. Eriksson Ek is the team’s top center and a great two-way, physical player who made great strides this season. Greenway has been the better, more consistent scorer so far in his young career and has made steady improvement each year. He too is a strong two-way player with elite power forward upside. It is impossible to know which player the team might prefer, but this much is certain: Seattle will not hesitate to scoop up whichever of the pair they must expose.

Assume now that a trade or NMC waiver allows Minnesota to employ a 7-3 protection scheme. In this scenario, decisions remain at forward but carry far less weight. Fiala, Eriksson Ek, and Greenway are all safe alongside Parise and Zuccarello. This leaves two spots left and number of candidates. Following the best per-game scoring season of his career, not to mention his contributions to the checking game and penalty kill, Foligno would likely be a lock. The remaining spot could go to Hartman, who increased his value with his transition to center this season, an area where the Wild lack depth. Hartman already earned an affordable, multi-year extension, as both sides seem happy with the fit. Rask outscored Hartman by one point this season and is a natural center, but his contract value and upcoming expiration both hurt his case. Sturm is developing into a good bottom-six forward, but the collegiate product is the same age as Hartman with a fraction of the pro experience.

Regardless of the protection scheme, there are two constants for the Wild: Soucy will be exposed and only one goalie can be protected. Neither is an easy pill to swallow. Minnesota paid up to keep Soucy when he almost left as a Group 6 free agent and the 26-year-old proved them right by continuing to improve this season. However, with a solid top four that they already have enough problems balancing in expansion, it is hard to imagine a way in which Soucy is protected. It is actually more likely that he could be traded before the draft. In goal, the team must choose between experience and stability or youth and upside. Talbot was brought in as a free agent this season to start for the Wild and he performed very well, especially in the playoffs where he started every game. However, it ended up being much more of a timeshare in the regular season, as young Kahkonen pushed for starts. The 2019-20 AHL Goaltender of the Year had some issues in his first NHL season, but has the makings of a future starter. After such a strong season, would the team mortgage the future in order to keep Talbot in place as their reliable starter? Or is Kahkonen’s potential too hard to ignore?

Projected Protection List

F Joel Eriksson Ek
F Kevin Fiala
F Marcus Foligno
F Jordan Greenway
F Ryan Hartman
F Nico Sturm
F Mats Zuccarello (NMC)

D Jonas Brodin (NMC)
D Matt Dumba 
D Jared Spurgeon (NMC)

G Kaapo Kahkonen

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (2): Zach Parise, Victor Rask

Defensemen (2): Carson Soucy, Ryan Suter

Taking some creative liberties here, the projected protections and exposures are based on the idea that Parise and Suter will take one for the team and waive their No-Movement Clauses for the Expansion Draft. The 36-year-olds (Parise will be 37 next month) are in decline, are paid $7.5MM+, and are under contract through the 2024-25 season, during which they will be 40 years old. There is no chance that the Kraken select Parise and little to no chance they take Suter. Starting a franchise with expensive players in their late thirties is not a feasible plan and Seattle GM Ron Francis is not one to take foolish chances. There is no risk to the team nor the players for Parise and Suter to waive their NMC’s. They’ll do it for the same reason they signed long-term deals with the Wild in the first place: to give their hometown team its best chance to win a Stanley Cup. After a season in which the club reinvented itself into a legitimate contender, the team is closer than ever to that goal and Parise and Suter are unlikely to stand in the way and cost the themselves a valuable teammate.

If this does indeed occur – and reason (plus some rumors) suggest that it will – the Wild are in much better shape with the Expansion Draft than previously thought. Minnesota could still go with an eight-skater scheme to protect Soucy rather than the likes of Foligno, Hartman, and Sturm, but it seems highly unlikely. The big defenseman has upside, but will never be more than a bottom-pair player in Minnesota. He will be an attractive option for Seattle, though. So too will veteran goaltender Talbot. A sturdy netminder who played well in his first season in Minnesota, Talbot would be a tough loss for the Wild but there are potential replacements on the free agent market. It would be far more difficult to replace the youth and upside of Kahkonen. For the Kraken, Talbot could both challenge for a starting role or could be flipped to another team with needs in net. Up front, the 7-3 scheme leaves little to offer Seattle. Rask’s cap hit is not worth his production, plus he’s on an expiring deal. If the Kraken are not enamored with Soucy or Talbot, young prospects Shaw or Bitten could be appealing, but would have to be considered worthy of a roster spot or else would be risked on waivers. They could also opt to negotiate with an impending free agent, with several notable names to choose from. However, Minnesota’s expansion exposure is not quite the guaranteed win for Seattle that it initially seemed.

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