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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Dallas Stars

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Dallas Stars

Current Cap Hit: $81,242,031 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

G Jake Oettinger (two years, $925K)
F Joel Kiviranta (one year, $925K)
D Miro Heiskanen (one year, $894K)
D Thomas Harley (three  years, $894K)
F Jason Robertson (two years, $795K)

Potential Bonuses
Heiskanen: $2.5MM
Oettinger: $425K
Harley: $213K
Robertson: $83K

Total: $3.25MM

The Stars are loaded with top prospects coming through the system quickly now, but one name stands out in Heiskanen, who the team will likely want to lock up long-term. The 21-year-old has been an amazing addition to the team’s defense over the past two years and is a major reason for their appearance in the Stanley Cup Finals last season. The blueliner posted a solid 33 and 35 point over the first two seasons, but he took that up a notch in the playoffs, posting six goals and 26 points in 27 playoff games, suggesting he has the potential to become a high-scoring offensive defenseman to go with his shutdown skills.

Kiviranta also made his mark during the playoffs, scoring several key goals during the playoffs, while the team could quickly turn to youngsters Harley, Oettinger and Robertson to step in and contribute this coming season.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Andrew Cogliano ($3.25MM, UFA)
F Blake Comeau ($2.4MM, UFA)
D Stephen Johns ($2.35MM, UFA)
D Jamie Oleksiak ($2.14MM, UFA)
F Jason Dickinson ($1.5MM, RFA)
F Justin Dowling ($750K, UFA)
D Mark Pysyk ($750K, UFA)
D Taylor Fedun ($738K, UFA)
D Julius Honka ($700K, RFA)

While the team has quite a bit of youth and veteran talent, the team has quite a few contracts coming off the books in one year and players like Cogliano and Comeau will have to prove their value to receive new contracts at potentially smaller contracts. The same goes on defense where a number of veterans come off the books including Johns and Oleksiak, both who give the Stars significant physicality. The team must determine if either can come back, especially Johns who returned from a long-standing concussion last season, but then sat out the playoffs due to concern over the same injury.

Dickinson, who has been a solid contributor in the bottom-six is another player expected to return, while Dallas will take long looks at their significant defensive depth in Pysyk and Fedun. Honka is another interesting situation after he spent last season overseas. The 2014 first rounder has struggled to establish himself in Dallas over the years and now will have to prove himself, likely in the AHL.

Two Years Remaining

F Joe Pavelski ($7MM, UFA)
F Alexander Radulov ($6.25MM, UFA)
D John Klingberg ($4.25MM, UFA)
F Denis Gurianov ($2.55MM, RFA)
D Andrej Sekera ($1.5MM, UFA)

Quite a bit of their money comes off the books in two years as the contracts of Pavelski, Radulov and Klingberg are up. That’s $17.5MM. That likely will end the tenures of Pavelski, who will be 38 years old then, while Radulov will be 36. The hope is that both players will be big contributors over the next two years as Dallas will do everything it can to return to the Stanley Cup Finals once again. While Pavelski struggled during the regular season with just 15 goals, he did step up when it counted, posting 13 goals and 19 points in the playoffs. Radulov also struggled with just 15 goals during the season, but fared much better in the playoffs with eight goals and 18 points in 27 games.

Klingberg is a different story. The team’s top defenseman just a year ago, Klingberg saw his offensive numbers slide during the regular season and in many ways seems to be overshadowed by the Stars’ young blueline. With Heiskanen likely to be granted a big contract soon, the status of Klingberg could be an interesting story, whether the team will overpay to lock him up or let him hit unrestricted free agency.

Gurianov has two years to prove that his numbers from last year are real. After having some issues a year ago in the AHL, Gurianov returned to North America last year and showed off his talent, scoring 20 goals in 64 games. If he can prove that he can be a consistent 20-goal scorer over these next two years, he also should get some of that freed up money.

Three Years Remaining

G Ben Bishop ($4.92MM, UFA)
G Anton Khudobin ($3.33MM, UFA)
F Roope Hintz ($3.15MM, RFA)

The team hope that Oettinger will have established himself as the goalie of the future in three years. That’s how long the team has to find someone as it seems unlikely that Dallas will keep Bishop and Khudobin since both will be 37 years old when their contracts expire. Both have been critical to the success of the team last year and Khudobin was rewarded with a three-year deal this offseason, especially considering that Bishop is expected to miss significant time this season due to injury.

Hintz, on the other hand, had a breakout season in his second year. The 24-year-old scored 19 goals and 33 points and looks like a future star for Dallas in the coming seasons, which suggests that his $3.15MM deal over the next three years could look like a significant bargain.Read more

Mark Letestu Announces Retirement

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Mark Letestu never tallied more than 16 goals in a season, but the forward still put together an impressive NHL career as a key utility player, appearing in 567 games. However, that time looks like it’s over as The Athletic’s Aaron Portzline (subscription required) writes that Letestu is retiring.

“The tool bag … it’s had enough,” Letestu told The Athletic on Sunday. “I skated good enough. I shot the puck really well. I thought the game really well. But I got a lot of breaks along the way, too, right from the very start. Luck is a big part of all of it, absolutely, but I also took advantage of those opportunities and played well when I needed to. I got a lot of time out of being a short, slow guy in a fast man’s league.”

The 35-year-old Letestu hasn’t seen much NHL action since playing 80 games between Edmonton and Columbus in 2017-18. He stayed with Columbus for the 2018-19 season, but spent most of that time with their AHL affiliate, the Cleveland Monsters, playing 64 games there, while only appearing in two games with the Blue Jackets that year. Last year wasn’t much better as Letestu signed with the Winnipeg Jets last offseason, but even with their injury woes, Letestu still only played seven games for the Jets.

Letestu originally signed with the Pittsburgh Penguins, eventually playing four years for the Columbus Blue Jackets. He signed with the Edmonton Oilers in 2015 and played with the Oilers for three seasons before the Blue Jackets reacquired him at the trade deadline in 2018 to help out in their playoff hopes. He was known as a jack-of-all trades forward, who could operate in any situation on the ice, making him quite valuable to any team that had him. His best season was in 2016-17 with the Oilers when he tallied 16 goals and 35 points (along with 11 points in 13 playoff games). In all, Letestu scored 93 goals and 210 points over his 12-year career.

2020 Year In Review: February

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2020 has certainly been a unique year away from the rink.  However, it’s also a year that has featured several big trades and free agent signings, coaching changes, and much more.  Over the coming days, PHR will take a look back at the top stories from around the game on a month-by-month basis.  We continue with a look back at February.

Byfuglien Situation Explained: The Winnipeg Jets spent a good chunk of their season in confusion at the sudden announcement during training camp that star defenseman Dustin Byfuglien was taking a leave of absence with little to no explanation. That decision prompted the team to suspend Byfuglien, then he countered with a grievance through the NHLPA. The blueliner also underwent ankle surgery shortly after the season began. However, after months of waiting, the team got some clarification regarding Byfuglien as it was reported that Byfuglien has not even skated as of Feb. 1 and he wasn’t expected to return at all during the season. Suddenly two days later, it was reported that the Jets and Byfuglien were discussing a mutual contract termination. That led to trade rumors with the Jets trying to move Byfuglien at the trade deadline. Of course the saga continued for several more months, but February was the first month where it became quite clear that the Jets not only weren’t getting Byfuglien back any time soon, but the two parties’ were headed for a divorce.

Major Injuries: As February rolled on, injuries became a major notation in the season as many teams lost key players for significant times and many for the season (had the playoffs not been delayed until August due to COVID-19). The Sharks were the first to announce that Tomas Hertl was out for the season, a big blow for the struggling Sharks. Next, Chicago’s Brent Seabrook underwent his third surgery, followed by Seth Jones, who was expected to be out indefinitely, a major loss for the defensive Blue Jackets. Of course, the suspension of play did allow Jones to return for the playoffs. The injuries continued to pile up, including San Jose’s Erik Karlsson, Vancouver’s Brock Boeser, Toronto’s Andreas Johnsson, Winnipeg’s Brian Little and Montreal’s Shea Weber. Some were able to return for the playoffs, but those injuries crippled several teams.

Paul Maurice Extended: Despite the team’s struggles and even some light rumors that the Winnipeg Jets might consider a coaching change, the Winnipeg Jets instead signed head coach Paul Maurice to a three-year extension, who has been leading the squad since 2013. While Maurice hasn’t been able to get the Jets deep into the playoffs and the team has seen quite a few early-round exits over the years, the veteran coach has helped the Jets post impressive numbers over the years. Maurice had tallied a 264-186-53 record at the time of the extension and had kept Winnipeg above water last season despite the depletion of their defense.

Bouwmeester collapes: The St. Louis Blues suffered a shock when veteran defenseman Jay Bouwmeester suffered a cardiac event while sitting on the bench during a game against the Anaheim Ducks on Feb. 11. He collapsed behind the bench and trainers and physicians rushed to his aid and saved his life and was later taken the the hospital. He was doing “very well” the following day and underwent successful surgery two days after that. He was labeled out for the season and the playoffs two weeks later. His playing career looks to be over, but the 37-year-old is doing well.

Trade Deadline: The trade deadline came and went with dozens of trades that filled the transaction wires. While many significant names passed throughout the month, perhaps the most significant trades were made by the Tampa Bay Lightning (hint: the eventual Stanley Cup Champions). The Lightning traded for New Jersey Devils power forward Blake Coleman, giving up prospect Nolan Foote and Vancouver’s 2020 first-round pick. A week later, the Lightning were at it again, acquiring another physical forward, Barclay Goodrow, in exchange for their own 2020 first-rounder. While Tampa Bay was the obvious winner, many significant names changed hands, including Robin Lehner, Nick Cousins and Alec Martinez (to Vegas); Tyler Toffoli (to Vancouver); Ondrej Kase and Nick Ritchie (to Boston); Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Andy Greene (to New York Islanders); Tyler Ennis, Andreas Athanasiou and Mike Green (to Edmonton); Brendan Dillon and Ilya Kovalchuk (to Washington) amongst many other significant deals.

Snapshots: Voluntary Opt-Out, Senators, Stepan, Schneider

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The first significant day of the NHL’s new calendar for the upcoming 2021 season is upon us as today is the deadline for NHL players to voluntarily opt-out of the season, according to TSN’s Frank Seravalli.

If a player wants to opt-out of the season, they must provide written notice to the league seven days before training camp starts, which means that the deadline has already passed for the seven non-playoff teams which start their training camps on Thursday. However, the rest of the league has until the end of the day today, if they don’t want to participate in the upcoming season.

Waivers are next, with it beginning Monday for the new season.

  • With many teams struggling to move out salary this year without requiring to include a sweetener to get the deal done, there were quite a few people surprised when the Ottawa Senators took on the contract of Derek Stepan last night and instead of receiving some type of sweetener, sent a second-round pick to Arizona instead. Quite a high price to pay. However, Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch points out that the move is very Ottawa-like as Stepan might have a $6.5MM cap hit for the upcoming season, but is only due $2MM in salary, as the Coyotes have already paid Stepan a $3MM salary bonus. The Senators have been well known to take on players who have less salary to be paid out than their cap hit. This trade is one of them.
  • Speaking of Stepan, TSN’s Pierre LeBrun notes that there is going to be a bit of a delay for Stepan to report to training camp in Ottawa. Besides the 14-day quarantine that will require him to miss part of training camp, Stepan is also waiting for the pending birth of his child, meaning that the 30-year-old could very well miss the start of the regular season. LeBrun reports, however, that Stepan’s agent, Matt Oates, says that the veteran is excited about joining Ottawa’s team as a team leader and is eager to arrive.
  • The IIHF will have a disciplinary committee hearing regarding the illegal hit to the head by Team Canada’s Braden Schneider vs. Germany’s Jan-Luca Schumacher, according to TSN’s Bob McKenzie. A decision is expected before Canada’s game vs. Slovakia later today. Schneider, a 2020 first-round pick of the New York Rangers, could be suspended, considering the IIHF has a no-tolerance policy on hits to the head. He was issued a game misconduct after the incident. McKenzie adds that Austria’s Philipp Wimmer is also expected to receive a hearing after his hit against USA’s Patrick Moynihan. UPDATE: Schneider received a one-game suspension for the hit, according to the IIHF.

Washington Capitals Sign Craig Anderson To Professional Tryout

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With rumors that the team might be looking for a veteran netminder after the team lost veteran Henrik Lundqvist to injury, the Washington Capitals announced they have signed longtime Ottawa Senators goaltender Craig Anderson to a professional tryout.

Washington had high expectations for their goaltending when they signed Lundqvist to help share the workload with young phenom Ilya Samsonov. However, when Lundqvist backed out due to a heart condition, the team was left with very little cap room and two AHL goaltenders, Vitek Vanecek and Pheonix Copley, to fill that void.

That prompted the team to bring in the 39-year-old Anderson to see whether he can fill the void in net for Lundqvist and give the two AHL goaltenders another season to develop. Anderson, who spent the last 10 years in Ottawa, has struggled the last few years with the Senators, albeit behind a terrible defense. He finished last season with a 11-17-2 record with a 3.25 GAA and a .902 save percentage.

His biggest competition will likely be Vancek, who many people feel is ready to take on the backup job after two impressive seasons with the Hershey Bears, including one as an AHL all-star. The 24-year-old Vanecek, however, has no NHL experience (despite being Braden Holtby’s backup in the bubble last year) and with the expectation of many back-to-back games coming this season, it could be a tough situation to put an untested goalie in. However, Anderson will have to prove that he still has it after Ottawa informed the veteran that it wanted to move on from him after his contract expired this past offseason and no other team came calling until now.

What Your Team Is Thankful For: Montreal Canadiens

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We’ve now made it past Thanksgiving and the holiday season is now upon us. Like the last few years, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for but this year comes with a bit of a change. Normally teams would have an idea of where their season was heading, coming up on the one-quarter mark with mountains of statistics to analyze. Instead, in this unprecedented year, the season hasn’t even begun. We’ll still take a look at what each group is excited about and what they could hope for once the calendar turns to 2021.

What are the Canadiens most thankful for?

An outlook of a team that is ready to compete for the playoffs for the next few years.

Montreal has been a team that has struggled for the last few years, looking like a team in the middle of a rebuild with struggling players and few young players to put into their lineup. Fast forward to today and the team suddenly is loaded with young talent and suddenly looks like a team ready to compete day in and day out with an eye on the playoffs. The team added some offensive talent in the offseason with the acquisitions of Tyler Toffoli and Josh Anderson to bolster their forward lines.

On top of all of that, the Canadiens showed fans some hope with a solid playoff performance in the bubble during the summer, which included wiping out the Pittsburgh Penguins in the qualifying round and giving the red-hot Philadelphia Flyers a solid run in the first round. All that adds to the belief that the Canadiens are on their way back.

Who are the Canadiens most thankful for?

One of Montreal’s biggest weaknesses was up the middle with little to no quality at the center position with much of the brunt of the load falling on the shoulders of Phillip Danault and now departed Max Domi to control the middle of the ice. However, one reason for optimism was the play of youngsters Nick Suzuki and Jesperi Kotkaniemi in the playoffs. Suzuki had a solid rookie campaign in 2019-20, scoring 13 goals and 41 points, but took his game up a notch during their 10-game playoff run with four goals and seven points, showing he is ready for a full-time role in the top-six next season.

On the other hand, Kotkaniemi, who struggled during the regular season and even found himself demoted to Laval at one point, looked like a different player in the playoffs. The 20-year-old scored just eight points in 36 regular season contests, but scored four goals in the 10-game playoff and showed more confidence and skill. After dominating the Liiga while on loan this season, the center might be ready to take a permanent step into the top-six as well.

What would the Canadiens be even more thankful for?

A return to form of Jonathan Drouin.

It’s been three years now since the 25-year-old was brought in at great cost (Mikhail Sergachev) as Drouin was billed as the future of the team, a first-line scorer who would hopefully become the face of the franchise. The then 22-year-old was coming off a 21-goal, 53-point performance and ready to breakout into one of the league’s top players.

Instead, Drouin has struggled in Montreal. While his numbers have been slightly down with a 46-point performance in 2017-18 and a 53-point showing in 2018-19, Drouin hasn’t been able to build on his former success. Last year, things only got worse with wrist and ankle injuries that held him to just 27 games last season. He did return for the playoffs with a goal and seven points in 10 games. The team has to hope that Drouin, who is still young enough, can find his game and become the top-line player the team was hoping for when they traded for him in the first place.

What should be on the Canadiens’ holiday wish list?

Offense.

The team is positioned to have a much-improved season this year and did acquire players like Toffoli and Anderson in the offseason, but the team still has to hope that their offense can prove to be productive. In fact, the offense has quite a few questions.

Can Anderson, who scored just one goal in 26 games last year due to injury, return to form? Can Tomas Tatar and Brendan Gallagher keep posting solid numbers? Can Drouin take the next step? Will Toffoli fit into the Canadiens’ offense easily? Can Kotkaniemi and Suzuki become top-six players immediately? If all that happens, will the third line become more dangerous now?

Montreal looks ready to compete, but despite solid goaltending and an improving blueline, the offense will be the determining factor on how far they can go.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Ottawa Senators Acquire Derek Stepan

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The Arizona Coyotes have shipped out one of their veteran leaders, sending Derek Stepan to the Ottawa Senators in exchange for a 2021 second-round pick (originally belonging to the Columbus Blue Jackets). Ottawa will take on the entire $6.5MM cap hit for the final season of Stepan’s contract, though notably, the forward is owed just $2MM in actual salary this season.

Stepan, 30, was one of the big moves that former Coyotes GM John Chayka pulled off in the 2017 offseason, coming to Arizona from the New York Rangers along with Antti Raanta in exchange for Tony DeAngelo and the seventh-overall pick (which turned out to be Lias Andersson). In an attempt to get more competitive that summer the Coyotes added the two Rangers, Nick Cousins, Niklas Hjalmarsson, and Jason Demers. Though it won’t be remembered as a supremely successful summer, it’s not like Stepan didn’t do exactly what he was brought in for. In his first year in Arizona, Stepan scored 56 points, trailing only Clayton Keller for the team lead. His consistent presence in the middle of the ice is valuable and it’s exactly what the Senators were after.

Stepan is just the latest move by Ottawa GM Pierre Dorion to try and surround his young core with more veteran names. Evgenii Dadonov, Alex Galchenyuk, Erik Gudbranson, and Matt Murray all have plenty of NHL experience and could make the Senators a sneaky competitive team in the All-Canadian division. That said, it’s not clear exactly where Stepan fits into a lineup that already had several options down the middle.

For both clubs, this is a nice move, as the Coyotes desperately needed some cap room and the Senators are just hoping to start turning a few losses into wins. Arizona now figures to have a little more than $3MM in space even before moving Marian Hossa to long-term injured reserve and could potentially have more moves coming. In Ottawa, after several years of turmoil, a respected leader like Stepan can provide some stability not only on the ice but in the locker room as well.

PHR Mailbag: Realignment, Traded Players, Ovechkin, Projections, Fans, Bruins, Gogolev

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the winners and losers of the NHL’s realignment, players that benefitted the most from offseason trades, Alex Ovechkin’s pursuit of Wayne Gretzky’s scoring record, predictions for several players and the potential for fans to be allowed in arenas this season, what’s next for Boston’s back end, and how one of the top-scoring OHL players last season went undrafted.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

acarneglia: Biggest winners and losers of proposed 2021 divisions?

St. Louis and Colorado find themselves in a nice spot in the West Division.  While they now have to contend with Vegas, that’s the only other team in that group that was in the top eight in the Western Conference.  The battle for the top two spots and home ice in the first round will be tight but there are more games against weaker opponents than there would be with the normal alignment.  I’d also put Columbus and Carolina in the winner category as they get to avoid the gauntlet that is the East Division and move into a group that has more weaker opponents.  Tampa Bay and Dallas are there too but those last two spots should be easier to get than had they been assigned with the other teams in the East.

As for teams that aren’t so fortunate, I have to put Buffalo at the top of the list.  They added Taylor Hall and Eric Staal and while their team has improved, they get to play most of the top teams from the Metropolitan and don’t get to escape Boston while they’re at it.  The three Canadian teams from the Pacific Division lose the opportunity to play against some of the rebuilding and likely less competitive teams and now get to face a potent Toronto team, Montreal who improved considerably, and Winnipeg who is always in the playoff mix instead while playing a higher percentage of games outside of their time zone.  (Even Ottawa has shown improvement although their playoff hopes took a hit with this format as well.)

Eaton Harass: Which player do you feel will benefit most since changing teams this offseason? And how many times do you think Devon Toews said “thank you God” after his trade to the Avs?

I’d go with Max Domi.  He leaves a situation in Montreal where he was being squeezed out of his preferred position to one where it looks as if he’ll have a defined role as their second-line center in Columbus behind Pierre-Luc Dubois.  I could see his ice time moving up to a new career-high as well and he should get plenty of power play time.  On top of that, he wound up signing what amounts to a second bridge deal, one that walks him to unrestricted free agency two years from now.  Assuming he can improve upon his performance with the Canadiens last season (and he’ll have ample opportunity to do so), he should be able to position himself quite nicely for an even bigger payday two years from now.  He probably wouldn’t have had that chance with Montreal.

I’ll toss out a couple of under the radar names as well.  Minnesota’s addition of Nick Bjugstad for next to nothing didn’t garner much attention but he’s going to go from a situation where he would have had a limited role to probably being a middle-six center.  If he can stay healthy and produce, he should be able to restore some value quickly.  The other is Pittsburgh’s pickup of Mike Matheson.  I think moving to a winning environment will help as well as lower expectations.  They can also afford to work him in slowly on the third pairing.  I expect that he should benefit a fair bit from that particular combination.

As for Toews, there are definitely worse situations to be traded to but it’s not like he was leaving a terrible one with the Islanders.  He had just emerged as an impact defender with them and may have even had a bigger role this coming season.  They’ve also been quite competitive despite a roster that isn’t the strongest on paper so it’s not as if he’s leaving a perennial non-playoff team either.  It worked out well for him in the end – he got a long-term deal from a top team – but I think he’d have been just fine sticking around where he was had they been able to afford him cap-wise.

2012orioles: Will Ovechkin lose his chance to catch Gretzky with another shortened season?

It certainly doesn’t help his odds.  He sits 188 away from matching the record so 189 is the target.  Here’s some quick math to come up with some projections.

Ovechkin is averaging 0.61 goals per game in his career and while that has dipped slightly over the last four years, it has only gone down to 0.58 goals per game which still represents a 47-goal pace over a full 82-game season.  He’s going to slow down at some point but that time isn’t now and even when he eventually does slow down, he’ll still be producing at a pretty good clip.

Let’s forecast his goal per game average at 0.5 for this next four-year stint (assuming his next deal runs that long considering he has made it clear that he intends to play in Russia again before his career is over).  That’s a bigger drop-off than before but I don’t think that’s unrealistic as he’s still a top scorer.  Assuming the NHL gets back to an 82-game schedule after 2020-21, that would give him 302 games to work with, or 151 goals.  That’s assuming he stays healthy but it’s worth noting that he has only missed six games over the last six years combined and not all of those were due to injuries.  As far as players go, Ovechkin is quite durable.

That would put him around 35-40 goals behind Gretzky and at that point of his career, it may take two years to get there.  Had 2020-21 been a full season, that target could be shaved by 10-15 goals which could have shortened the number of years to catch him by one which is significant.

For me, it all depends on Ovechkin’s desire to get the record.  If he wants it, he’ll stick around long enough to get it, even if it means him staying with Washington for an extra year than it may have taken otherwise.  But if he wants to go back to the KHL before he’s in his early 40s, then this abbreviated campaign could be the difference.  I don’t think it will be though – Ovechkin will either get it or be more than 10-15 goals behind Gretzky when he decides that his time in North America has come to an end.

The Duke: Crystal Ball Scoutings (e.g., annual goals/points; PP unit; top- or bottom-6, etc.) please for Mssrs. Veleno, Lindblom, Tolvanen, Zadina, Rasmus Sandin & Adin Hill. Thanks in advance.

Joe Veleno: I know he was a prolific scorer in the QMJHL but I don’t see him being a big point producer in the NHL.  Detroit would be happy with him cracking the second line but I like him more as a two-way third-line center with secondary special teams time.  He should be a valuable player for them but that won’t necessarily translate to a ton of production – maybe 15 goals, 35 points per season.  He’s a couple of years from being in that role, however.

Oskar Lindblom: Assuming he is able to get back to the level he was at before his cancer diagnosis (and the contract he got from the Flyers suggests they believe he can), he should settle in around the 20-25 goal mark and around 40-45 points.  (He was on pace for more than that last season but that shooting percentage probably wasn’t sustainable.)  I’m not sure he’ll be able to get number one minutes (which could also push him to the second power play unit more often than not) but he should quickly work his way back onto the second line.

Eeli Tolvanen – I thought he was a sure-fire top-six player when he was drafted but I’m not as sure now after his first two seasons with AHL Milwaukee.  Maybe he’s someone that ultimately plays a lot better with more talented players but at this stage, it’s hard to forecast a top-six role down the road.  He’ll be eased in when he gets to Nashville full time so it’ll be a while yet before he reaches his ceiling.  Right now, 10-15 goals and 25-30 points with secondary power play time would be my projection.

Filip Zadina – Can he drive a line or is he more of a complementary scorer?  That’s the big question and there are two different statlines depending on the answer.  One is a 30-plus goal-getter with consistency, the other is closer to 20-25 per year that could get to 30 once or twice if all goes well.  I’m leaning towards the latter category but he’ll see plenty of top-six minutes and top unit power play time either way.

Rasmus Sandin – A lot depends on Morgan Rielly’s future.  If Toronto can’t afford to re-sign him, Sandin could very well become the lynchpin to their offense from the back end.  That would mean plenty of power play time and with the firepower they have, 45-50 points (10 or so goals) wouldn’t be out of the question.  If Rielly re-signs, however, Sandin becomes more of a secondary power play threat which could dip him more towards the 30-35-point territory.

Adin Hill – He should get his first real NHL opportunity in 2021-22 once Antti Raanta likely moves elsewhere in free agency but I’m not sure he’s a starter down the road.  I’d have him around the 25-30 start mark as his ceiling as a result.

Baji Kimran: What are the chances fans will be allowed in the arenas this season? I’m a full season ticket holder for the Columbus Blue Jackets and I’m starting to think I’ll be watching all the games on television. I’m hoping you’ll tell me I’m wrong.

I’d put the odds at 100% that fans will be allowed in some arenas this season as there are a handful of teams that will have limited capacity to start the season.  A lot will depend on how things go with the virus over the next few months.  Will the number of positive tests start to decrease sharply; how quickly will vaccinations make a difference?  And, of course, each jurisdiction’s respective health authorities have various levels of tolerance for risk; what one city thinks is risky could be considered acceptable in others.

I’m not as bullish that things are going to drastically change in the next couple of months.  While there’s a light at the end of the tunnel, progress is still going to be gradual.  As a result, I expect quite a few teams will ultimately go without fans for the entire year.  And if Columbus happens to be a state that allows some fans, I imagine it would be with limited capacity and with it, perhaps some sort of lottery to determine which season ticket holders get to attend which games.  You could get a chance at watching a handful in-person if all goes well but I suspect you’ll be watching most of the games on television.

VonBrewski: I hear the Bruins are not taking Chara back. So, what does Boston do on the left-side D?

I wouldn’t rule out Zdeno Chara returning to Boston just yet.  While team president Cam Neely has spoken about the desire to get a look at some of their younger options, they haven’t ruled out the veteran returning yet.  Earlier this week, his agent also indicated that Chara’s focus at this time is returning to the Bruins although other teams have reached out as well.

But let’s assume he doesn’t come back for the purpose of this question.  I expected someone to be brought in to try to replace Torey Krug but that clearly hasn’t happened and with less than $3MM in cap room, there isn’t a top-four option available.  I expect Matt Grzelcyk will be tasked with taking on a bigger role and after hovering between 18-19 minutes a night the last two years, he’ll probably come in closer to 22 minutes per game or so.  They’ll also hope that John Moore can hold down a regular spot in the lineup after playing a sparing role last season.

After that, youngsters like Urho Vaakanainen and Jakub Zboril are likely to get a long look with the hopes that one of them can take hold of a regular spot.  It also wouldn’t be shocking for one of their right-shot options to be asked to change sides and a lefty or two could be brought in on a PTO (they were linked to Karl Alzner a couple of months ago) to give them some more options.  It’d be a patchwork fix no matter what though which is why I don’t think they’ve entirely closed the door on Chara just yet.  While he’s not the top-pairing player he once was, he’s still better than some of the options here.

bigalval: Pavel Gogolev was not drafted again and had to sign overseas. I don’t get this because his stats a were great in the OHL. Why did no one draft him or sign him as a player who was not drafted, I watched a lot of video on this kid, he could be a steal. Could have signed him for next to nothing. Any ideas?

There’s no denying that Gogolev’s numbers were quite impressive last season – 45 goals and 51 assists in 63 games with Guelph, good for sixth in league scoring.  But there are a few factors that I think contributed to him being passed on again, aside from simply being Russian which still tends to scare some teams off (even though he moved to Canada early on).

As you alluded to, it wasn’t Gogolev’s first draft-eligible year and his performance in his prior years of eligibility weren’t particularly strong.  Was his jump in production due to him putting everything together, simply being a year older and stronger, or due to chemistry with a particular linemate?  The last two are almost certainly factors and that would have worked against him.

Gogolev has shown that he can score at the junior level but players with that type of production that get passed up on are often viewed as highly flawed in other areas.  It’s safe to infer that the fact he went unpicked again means that teams have similar concerns here.  Yegor Sokolov, another 2000-born prospect, had a similar jump in the QMJHL last year and was picked in the second round by Ottawa.  It’s the all-around game that was the difference.

It’s worth noting that while he has been passed up again in the draft, he did spend time at camps in Detroit and Vegas in the past so he is on the NHL radar for some teams and perhaps down the road he’ll be able to land an entry-level deal as an undrafted free agent.

Interestingly enough, Gogolev was able to find a place to play just yesterday as Vasby of the Allsvenskan in Sweden announced that they’ve signed him.  A good showing there would certainly bolster his value around the NHL.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Red Wings Recall Five From Loans

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With their training camp starting on Thursday, the Red Wings announced (Twitter link) that they have brought back several players from their respective international loans.  Forwards Mathias Brome, Michael Rasmussen, and Filip Zadina, as well as defensemen Filip Hronek and Gustav Lindstrom, are all on their way back to Detroit to participate in camp.

Brome signed with Detroit back in April as an undrafted free agent, inking a one-year, entry-level deal worth $925K plus another $212.5K in performance bonuses.  The 26-year-old had 17 goals and 26 in 52 games with SHL Orebro last season and was loaned back there to start this year.  While he had just four goals in 23 games, he’s tied for fifth in the league in assists with 16.  Brome is expected to push for a roster spot with the Red Wings in camp.

Rasmussen spent the majority of 2018-19 with Detroit as he was too young to be assigned to the minors but he was eligible to play with AHL Grand Rapids last season and he spent the entire year there, picking up seven goals and 15 assists in 35 games.  He was on loan to Graz in Austria and was relatively productive offensively with five goals and 11 assists in 18 contests along with collecting 42 penalty minutes.  He remains waiver-exempt but with the AHL still more than a month away from starting, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him break camp with Detroit, even if it’s in a taxi squad role.

As for Zadina, he split last year between the Red Wings and Griffins and put up similar numbers at both levels (8-7-15 in 28 NHL games, 9-7-16 in 21 AHL contests).  He produced at a slightly better rate with Ocelari Trinec in the Czech Extraliga, notching eight goals and six helpers in 17 games prior to today’s recall.  He should be given a long look to break camp with Detroit but if he doesn’t make it, he’s a candidate to at least start on the taxi squad as well.

There is no such uncertainty with Hronek’s situation.  He has already established himself as Detroit’s top defenseman which made it a bit intriguing that the Red Wings opted to loan him out in the first place given the potential for injury.  He was dominant with Hradec Kralove of the Czech Extraliga, putting up 10 goals and 13 assists in 22 games, getting his contract year off to a good start.

Lindstrom made his NHL debut last season, getting into 16 games with Detroit where he had one assist while putting up five helpers in 45 AHL contests as well.  He logged more than 16 minutes a night in ice time with the Red Wings but with the additions of Marc Staal, Troy Stecher, and Jon Merrill, he may have to wait for injuries to hit to get his next NHL opportunity, making him another taxi squad candidate to start as well.  Lindstrom had 11 assists in 20 games with Almtuna of the Allsvenskan in Sweden.

Coyotes Sign Zane McIntyre To Tryout Contract

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With training camps beginning in the near future, PTO season is basically upon us.  The Coyotes had already put one player on their invite list in center Frederik Gauthier but GM Bill Armstrong confirmed to Craig Morgan of AZ Coyotes Insider reports (Twitter link) that goaltender Zane McIntyre has signed a tryout deal as well.

The 28-year-old was once viewed as one of Boston’s goaltenders of the future after a stellar three-year NCAA career at North Dakota but it didn’t really translate to much success at the professional level.  He got into eight games with the Bruins back in 2016-17 but that’s it for his NHL experience.  Last season, he spent most of the year in Vancouver’s system before being flipped to New Jersey for Louis Domingue at the trade deadline.  Between the two minor league teams, he had a 15-10-2 record with a 2.80 GAA and a .908 SV%.

After not receiving any NHL interest early in free agency, McIntyre opted to go to the KHL, signing with Dinamo Riga.  However, after posting a 4.65 GAA and a .796 SV% in six appearances, he was released on Monday which allows him to go to camp with Arizona.

On the surface, it would appear that the Coyotes are either eyeing McIntyre for the taxi squad role or to have him in the minors with Adin Hill serving as the mandatory third goalie.  With only 44 contracts used out of 50, they’ll have ample room to sign him if he has a good showing when their training camp begins on January 3rd.

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