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Free Agent Profile: Sami Vatanen

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Much like fellow countryman and unsigned free agents Mikael Granlund, Sami Vatanen is getting next to no attention on the open market so far this off-season. The 29-year-old defenseman, ranked No. 14 overall in PHR’s Top 50 UFA’s, is an established two-way defenseman with nearly 200 points in his eight-year NHL career, but seemingly can’t find a suitable offer in the stagnant, flat cap market.

Unfortunately for Vatanen, recency bias looms large in the free agent market. Teams are more willing to offer significant contracts to players who have impressed in their most recent outings rather than looking at their overall career. This has sunk Granlund so far and the same can be said for Vatanen on multiple fronts. First, Vatanen’s time with the Carolina Hurricanes was utterly forgettable. Traded at the deadline despite being injured, Vatanen did not see any regular season action with Carolina due to the suspension of the season. He was healthy enough to play once the postseason resumed, but played a limited role of just over 18 minutes per night in seven games (missing the final playoff game due to undisclosed reasons). Second, his past two seasons overall have not been stellar. Following four straight seasons of 67+ games played with the Anaheim Ducks, Vatanen’s health diminished over the past two years with the New Jersey Devils. He played in just 97 games total across the two campaigns and while his per-game stats both offensively and defensively held steady with his career average, his totals suffered.

Of course, the full picture of Vatanen’s career clearly displays why he ranked so high among PHR’s top free agents. He may be a couple of years removed from a relatively full season, but a healthy Vatanen in Anaheim was a perennial 30+ point player who also logged 100+ blocks and nearly 100 hits each year. Vatanen’s plus/minus was also superior before joining the struggling Devils. Even as part of what used to be a loaded Ducks defense corps, Vatanen earned his minutes and performed at a high level.

At full strength and given the opportunity, Vatanen can be a difference-maker for any team. A player who has logged 21 minutes or more per game in each of his six full NHL seasons , Vatanen knows how to carry the load of major minutes and special teams roles. He is also versatile, comfortable playing on his natural right side or on his off side. Over 82 games, Vatanen has 40-point upside and can be a disruptive force defensively as well. He has his demons as well; Vatanen is undersized, turnover prone, and can be a liability positionally in his own end. However, the total package is one of a bona fide top-four defenseman. Yet, at this point in the off-season he may not be paid as such.

Potential Suitors

Cap space aside, there are few teams in the NHL who couldn’t use a defenseman that can play both sides and contribute at both ends. Vatanen should cast a wide net of suitors, which makes the silence surrounding his name on the rumor mill all the more strange.

Taking into account the teams with ample salary cap space and need, there are a number of rebuilding clubs who could very likely be eyeing Vatanen. The Ottawa Senators and Detroit Red Wings have shown no hesitation to add free agents this off-season and could use a player like Vatanen, while the Los Angeles Kings have been very quiet but could greatly benefit from adding a player of Vatanen’s caliber to their young, inexperienced blue line. The Kings have a number of right-shot defenders, but Vatanen could still be very useful on the left side.

Of course, the problem with any of these teams is that Vatanen just escaped a rebuild in New Jersey and may want to look for a more competitive landing spot. While 2019-20 was a major disappointment for the San Jose Sharks, the team has the pieces to return to relevance this season. However, they could really use one more established veteran on the back end and Vatanen would fit the bill. There is a gap on the right side as well behind Erik Karlsson and Brent Burns, but Vatanen might be the most dangerous playing on his off side with either of those stars.

Two other teams in need of defense but who might not be an obvious fit due to shot side are the New York Rangers and Boston Bruins. Both clubs are set on the right side; Boston has Charlie McAvoy, Brandon Carlo, and a now-healthy Kevan Miller as well as NHL prospect depth and the Rangers have Jacob Trouba, Anthony DeAngelo, and Adam Fox. However, both teams have somewhat failed to address holes on the left side this off-season. Even on his off side, Vatanen would be a major upgrade to Brendan Smith and depth additions Jack Johnson and Anthony Bitetto in New York and to Matt Grzelcyk and John Moore in Boston. Both teams have considerable prospect depth on the left side, but as Stanley Cup contenders may not want to miss a chance at a player like Vatanen on a bargain deal.

Projected Contract

PHR originally expected Vatanen to sign a deal in the neighborhood of four years and $19.5MM. At this point, if Vatanen was going to land a long-term deal it would have happened by now. It seems teams want to make sure that he can stay healthy and play at his best for a full season before thinking about multiple years. Vatanen may not be restricted to just a one-year deal, as the impending Expansion Draft and its exposure requirements may make a two-year offer attractive to some, but anything beyond a two-year term seems unlikely.

As for the money, the posited $4.875MM AAV seems highly unlikely. That valuation was based on a long-term deal. Whether one year or two, Vatanen is now unfortunately facing a “show me” contract. With so many possible landing spots at or close to the salary cap ceiling, there isn’t much money to go around. If he wants to end up with a competitive club, Vatanen will be looking at a $3MM AAV or lower. If he chases the money, it still seems like the market is pointing toward a $3.5MM cap hit at best.

While Vatanen is a more well-rounded defenseman than Erik Gustafsson, the one-year, $3MM deal he signed with the Philadelphia Flyers feels like a decent expectation. If Vatanen lands a second year, perhaps he gets a total of $7MM. Either way, Vatanen is being paid for his floor when, if healthy, his ceiling is much higher. If whoever eventually signs Vatanen is lucky enough to get a healthy season (or two) out of him, he could be one of the better bargains of this free agent market.

Bruins’ Kevan Miller Expected To Start 2020-21 Healthy

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It has been a rough couple of years for Kevan Miller. The Boston Bruins defenseman missed the entire 2019-20 season with a fractured kneecap, an injury that incurred setback after setback. The season prior, 2018-19, was when the kneecap injury initially occurred, causing Miller to miss the team’s regular season finale and all 24 postseason games as they reached Game Seven of the Stanley Cup Final. It was his fourth different injury of the season, as he was able to play in just 39 games. In that limited action, Miller’s play reflected someone who was never quite at 100% and paled in comparison to his previous seasons.

Miller can only hope that 2020-21 will be different and that obviously starts with his health. He tells Ty Anderson of The Sports Hub that things are trending in the right direction:

I’m doing really well. Knee is feeling great, body is feeling great. Obviously, had a lot of time to get things in order. I’m making really good progress. I’ve been skating two to three times a week. I’ve been training. I’m really, super excited to have the opportunity to play again. If we were playing right now, I wouldn’t be cleared. But come puck-drop, I definitely will be. I have no doubt in my mind I will be 100 percent by then.

If there is any reason to believe Miller’s hopeful statement, it’s because the Bruins did. Boston rushed to re-sign Miller on the first day of unrestricted free agency, despite not having seen him play since April 2019. They also didn’t just hand him a minimum-salary “show me” deal, either. Miller signed a one-year deal with incentives, yes, but it includes a $1MM base salary and a $250K roster bonus for spending just one day on the active roster. That’s essentially $1.25MM guaranteed with a maximum of $2MM with bonuses.

Boston’s other moves this off-season also reflect some faith in Miller’s comeback. Even after losing Torey Krug, the Bruins have refrained from adding to their defense corps. To this point, they have not even re-signed Zdeno Chara. On paper, this leaves the Bruins very thin on the blue line. Charlie McAvoy, Brandon Carlo, and Matt Grzelcyk are returning regulars who will play top-four roles, but the other starting jobs appeared to be up for grabs between another oft-injured veteran in John Moore and promising but unproven prospects Jeremy Lauzon, Connor Clifton, and Jakub Zboril. The team also has veteran Steven Kampfer, first-round prospect Urho Vaakanainen, and high profile college signing Jack Ahcan slated for AHL Providence. The group has some depth, but isn’t exactly loaded with the talent and experience that one would expect from a contender.

A healthy Miller would help with that. Although he has played almost exclusively in the NHL since 2013-14, Miller has just two seasons with 68+ games played, the most recent in 2017-18. Yet, in each of those seasons he averaged over 19 minutes of ice time per game, recorded nearly 20 points, logged over 150 hits and 100 blocked shots, played a key role on the penalty kill, and produced strong plus/minus and possession numbers. Granted, it has been a while since Miller has played a complete season, but his career numbers indicate that at full health he has the ceiling of a top-four shutdown defenseman, a possible Chara replacement even.

However, the caveat to any Miller excitement is that health is never guaranteed, even if he does begin the season at full strength. Miller’s resume reads like a list of all possible hockey injuries, and then some. He’s lost an even 200 regular season games to injury in his career, with ailments including the standard upper-body and lower-body injuries, concussions, and sickness but also multiple injuries to his shoulders and hands as well as a bruised larynx. Miller’s kneecap will be of most concern in the coming season, but the aggressive defenseman has shown a propensity for injury and cannot be trusted for a season-long role even if the knee holds up. A healthy Miller to begin the season is good news for the Bruins, but his presence and peak performance cannot be relied upon.

Prospect Notes: Wiesblatt, Neighbours, Groshev, Stillman

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The St. Louis Blues’ and San Jose Sharks’ recent first round picks are on the move, at least for the time being. Jake Neighbours and Ozzy Wiesblatt have been loaned by their WHL teams, Edmonton and Prince Albert respectively, to the AJHL’s Brooks Bandits, the team announced. The loans carry a pre-determined end date of December 20, allowing Neighbours and Wiesblatt to get a head start on the coming season. The WHL announced in October that they had postponed the start of the 2020-21 season to January 8, while the AJHL is set to kick off their season on November 13. Neighbours and Wiesblatt will have more than a month of game action with the Bandits before heading to training camp with the Oil Kings and Raiders. The top prospects, who have both already signed their entry-level contracts, have landed in one of the best possible spots when it comes to being loaned to an inferior league. Brooks is a powerhouse program, whose current roster includes a 2021 first round hopeful in Corson Ceulemans and a number of NCAA commitments. The team just got much more dangerous with the addition of these two elite young forwards, at least for the next month.

  • Another recent draft selection has also been moved, but in a more permanent fashion. Tampa Bay Lightning third-rounder Maxim Groshev has been traded in the KHL, though “sold” is the more accurate verb. Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk has dealt their homegrown product to SKA St. Petersburg, per a team release. The return is merely “monetary compensation” but it is believed the young forward cost 40 million rubles. A big winger who was deemed ready for KHL last season at 17, Groshev recorded seven points in 36 games last year and has two points in 17 games thus far in 2020-21. SKA is an elite KHL team and not exactly known to spend time developing young players when they can attract prime talent, so the team must see considerable potential in Groshev as well as feel he has several years left in the KHL before taking his talents to North America.
  • The OHL’s postponement of their 2020-21 start to February, as well as questions about the quality of the competition once play resumes, is going to result in considerable player movement, which has already begun. In the latest notable move, potential 2021 first-round pick Chase Stillman has been loaned to Demark by his club, the Sudbury Wolves, until the OHL season begins. The Sudbury Star’s Ben Leeson reports that Stillman has already departed, and is set to join the Esbjerg Engery. Stillman, the son of former NHLer Cory Stillman, should find Denmark to be an interesting developmental adventure; it is his first pro experience but also not considered a top tier pro league by any means. If Stillman dominates in Denmark, he may have to make a difficult decision about returning for a shortened OHL season that may not include checking versus seeing his pro season through. For a highly regarded draft-eligible prospect, it’s a call that could impact his draft stock.

 

Kurtis Gabriel Signs With San Jose Sharks

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The San Jose Sharks have added a little toughness to the organization, signing Kurtis Gabriel to a one-year contract. PuckPedia reports the deal is a two-way contract worth $700K at the NHL level and $175K in the minor leagues. Gabriel spent last season with the Lehigh Valley Phantoms and was an unrestricted free agent. Sharks GM Doug Wilson released a short statement on the signing:

Kurtis provides valuable depth to the organization, having experience at both the NHL and AHL level. He is a great teammate who brings an extremely competitive, hard working attitude on the ice. We are happy to have him join our organization.

Gabriel, 27, was a third-round pick of the Minnesota Wild in 2013, but he certainly wasn’t drafted for his offensive upside. The 6’3″ 220-lbs winger has 11 fights in his 38 career NHL games and 51 in a much longer AHL career. Over that same period, he has scored five points in the NHL and 63 in the minors.

In San Jose, he’ll most likely be headed to the Barracuda, his fourth AHL team since 2018. He suited up 53 times for the Phantoms this season, scoring nine points and registering 92 penalty minutes.

Importantly, Gabriel’s contract becomes the 48th on the books for the Sharks, just two under the limit of 50. That doesn’t leave them much flexibility to sign other players, including restricted free agents Jonathan Dahlen and Tony Sund. Both players are signed overseas for this year, but the Sharks do still retain their rights and could potentially sign them after their European seasons are complete. While it’s not an immediate issue, it is something to keep an eye on with regards to San Jose.

Florida Panthers Add To Hockey Operations Staff

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The Florida Panthers have announced two new hires to their front office, naming Paul Krepelka assistant general manager and Tom Bark assistant to the general manager. New GM Bill Zito released a statement on the hires:

Paul and Tom are crucial additions to our Hockey Operations Staff. Paul joins the Florida Panthers with a wealth of experience from his time in the NHL, ECHL and on the agent side of the hockey business. As for Tom, I know him well from our time together in Columbus where he provided exceptional insight on the scouting and evaluation side of the game. I am thrilled to have them both on our team as we prepare for the upcoming season.

The Panthers have revamped their entire management group since the end of the season, bringing Zito over from the Columbus Blue Jackets and surrounding him with experienced pieces from around the league. Krepelka is another one, coming over from the Carolina Hurricanes after serving as their VP of hockey operations the last two seasons.

Bark meanwhile has experience with Zito from Columbus, where he served in several roles including a similar assistant to the GM title.

Jared McIsaac Undergoes Shoulder Surgery

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Deja vu all over again. Detroit Red Wings prospect Jared McIssac underwent left shoulder surgery after suffering an injury while playing in Finland. The recovery period is expected to be between five and six months, something McIsaac is very familiar with after undergoing a similar procedure on his right shoulder just prior to the 2019-20 season.

Selected with the 36th overall pick in 2018, McIssac was a steal for the Red Wings in the second round given his ranking by almost every scouting service. This was a player who had taken home the defensive rookie of the year award in 2017 after being picked second in the QMJHL draft, won gold at the Hlinka-Gretzky tournament, and looked like a future top-four NHL defenseman. Unfortunately, that development has been stalled by two major injuries now, which certainly raises questions about his future.

Still, after the last surgery, McIssac still returned in time to suit up for Team Canada at the most recent World Junior Championship, starring for the team and taking home a gold medal. He ended up playing in 28 games at the QMJHL level, recording 19 points.

If he can complete a similar rehab and get back on the ice by the end of this season, the Red Wings will be able to see what they have. At just 20 years old there is still plenty of time for him to get his development back on track, but we won’t see him in a Detroit sweater for a while.

Minor Transactions: 11/02/20

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The offseason has slowed to a crawl with just a few arbitration hearings to come and a handful of free agents to sign. With the news that the AHL and some junior leagues are targeting February as a start date, however, things will likely pick up in the way of minor signings. We’ll keep track of the notable ones right here:

  • Kyle Wood, who finished the 2019-20 season in the Detroit Red Wings organization, has signed in the German second league. Wood, 24, was a third-round pick of the Colorado Avalanche in 2014 but hasn’t actually played a single game in the NHL. It’s not every day that you find a 6’5″ defenseman that can record 43 points in 68 games, but that’s exactly what Wood did as a rookie in the AHL.
  • Yuri Terao is headed back to Japan after his dynamic rookie season in the ECHL, at least until the minor league gets back underway. Terao is playing with his hometown Nikko Icebucks of the Asia League, but is expected to return to North America when the ECHL season starts. For the Utah Grizzlies last year, Terao scored 18 goals and 40 points in 61 games.
  • Chicago Blackhawks forward Pius Suter, who had been on loan with the GCK Lions in the Swiss second tier, has been re-assigned to the ZSC Lions in the first tier. That’s certainly nothing to worry about for Suter, who spent the last five seasons with Zurich and won the league MVP in 2019-20.
  • Jaycob Megna has signed a one-year AHL contract with the San Jose Barracuda, giving the team a veteran defenseman for the lineup next season. Megna, 27, has played 43 NHL games but spent the entire 2019-20 season with the Chicago Wolves, scoring three goals and ten points.

This page will be updated throughout the day.

Dillon Heatherington Signs In KHL

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After spending the entire 2019-20 season in the AHL, Dillon Heatherington has decided to look elsewhere for his hockey employment. Heatherington has signed a one-year contract with Barys Nur-Sultan in the KHL.

The 25-year-old defenseman was originally a second-round pick of the Columbus Blue Jackets in 2013 but ended up traded to the Dallas Stars organization before ever playing a game in the NHL. With the Stars, he ended up becoming a core member of their AHL team, reaching the Calder Cup Finals in 2018 and wearing a letter as alternate captain the following year. He also played in 12 games for Dallas during his time there, including a playoff game in 2019.

Now heading to the KHL, Heatherington is certainly not off the radar of NHL teams down the line. Still young enough to develop further and big enough to make scouts believe he could play a role, it seems likely that you’ll hear his name again down the line as a potential free agent signing in North America.

Dallas Stars Sign Julius Honka

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Nov 2: While he waits for the season to start in North America, Honka will now return to play in Finland. The Stars have loaned Honka to the Lahti Pelicans, where he will spend the next few months preparing for NHL training camp.

Oct 30: After a season-long hiatus, defenseman Julius Honka is back with the Dallas Stars. The team has announced a new one-year, two-way contract for Honka, who they were unable to sign last off-season. CapFriendly reports that Honka will make the minimum $700K in the NHL and $90K in the AHL.

Honka, 24, returns to Dallas after spending the 2019-20 season with JYP of Finland’s Liiga, his hometown team. The Stars and Honka could not agree to terms on a new contract last off-season, but by extending the restricted free agent a qualifying offer, the club retained his exclusive negotiating rights. The two sides returned to talks this off-season in hopes of a reunion.

Unlike fellow Finn Jesse Puljujarvi of the Edmonton Oilers, who also spent this past season in the Liiga instead of with his NHL team, Honka did little to help boost his bargaining power with his play this year. The streaky, one-dimensional defenseman put up just modest numbers with JYP, recording 15 points in 46 games. This was good enough for only fourth among club defensemen in scoring. In fact, his younger brother, Carolina Hurricanes prospect Anttoni Honka, was JYP’s best offensive defenseman at just 20 year old.

It is still unclear whether Honka truly has the talent to stick at the NHL level. Although he was a first-round pick in 2014 and has put up big offensive totals in juniors and in the AHL, he has struggled to find consistency in Dallas. He again showed with JYP that playing against mature, physical opponents at top pro levels may be too much for an undersized and defensively deficient player. Dallas seems willing to gamble on his offensive ability with a low-risk one-year, two-way deal, but that doesn’t mean Honka will be handed a regular role with the club right away. He will have to earn that with his performance or he could find himself separated from the Stars once again.

Five Key Stories: 10/26/20 – 11/1/20

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The month of October has come and gone and while the frenetic pace of player movement has come to an end, there was still some notable news around the league on the player front which are highlighted in the top stories of the week.

Galchenyuk To Ottawa: The Senators have made quite a few moves already to shake up their team and that continued with the signing of forward Alex Galchenyuk to a one-year, $1.05MM deal.  While the 26-year-old has seen his stock drop considerably since leaving Montreal two years ago (when he had a $4.9MM AAV), he still put up 24 points in 59 games last season.  Even if he’s only able to produce at that level in a bigger role with Ottawa, Galchenyuk should still be able to live to provide some value which makes it a no-risk move for the Sens with some upside.

Bertuzzi Receives Award: While many players have avoided salary arbitration, one went through the process in Detroit winger Tyler Bertuzzi.  The Red Wings filed at $3.15MM while Bertuzzi submitted $4.25MM and the result was closer to the first number as he was awarded a one-year, $3.5MM deal.  His numbers last season were nearly identical to his 2018-19 campaign as he posted 21 goals and 27 assists in 71 games before the pandemic hit.  While Bertuzzi’s camp may be disappointed that the arbitrator didn’t come closer to his number, he can still take some solace in more than doubling his salary from the $1.4MM he made in each of the last two years.  He will once again be a restricted free agent with arbitration rights next offseason.

Toews Avoids Arbitration: After dealing a pair of second-round picks to acquire him, Colorado was able to lock up defenseman Devon Toews to a four-year, $16.4MM contract, avoiding salary arbitration.  As has often been the case with contracts this offseason, the deal is heavily backloaded with his 2020-21 salary checking in at $2.35MM but jumps to $5.9MM at the end.  The 26-year-old completed his first full NHL season last year but did well with 28 points in 68 games while logging over 20 minutes a night.  The lack of NHL experience (just 116 career regular season games) likely worked in the favor of the Avalanche who now hope they have a top-four blueliner inked at a team-friendly cap hit.

Daley Calls It A Career: After 16 years in the NHL, defenseman Trevor Daley decided to hang up his skates and announced his retirement.  Injuries limited the 37-year-old to just 43 games last season with the Red Wings but while his career ended on somewhat of a quiet note, he certainly had a good run as a productive secondary threat from the back end.  Overall, he had a respectable 309 points in 1,058 games with Dallas, Chicago, Pittsburgh, and Detroit.  Daley is heading back to the Penguins now in a different capacity as he has joined their front office and will assist with player evaluations as well as serving as an ‘eye in the sky’ whenever next season gets underway.

Olofsson Takes Two: Victor Olofsson’s rookie campaign was one that not many saw coming.  After a strong year in AHL Rochester in 2018-19, he made an immediate impact with the Sabres, picking up 20 goals and 22 assists in just 54 games last season.  He was rewarded for his efforts with a two-year, $6.1MM pact to avoid arbitration.  Expectations will be high for the 25-year-old as he enters his sophomore season with an improved offense following the signing of Taylor Hall and the acquisition of Eric Staal but even if he’s able to simply replicate his 20-goal performance over the next couple of years, he’ll provide Buffalo with a good return on that contract.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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