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Snapshots: Training Camps, Toews, McIsaac

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The 2020-21 league calendar was one of the key topics at Friday’s GM meetings and while there still is no word on when the season will begin, there appears to be an overview of what training camps could look like.  Larry Brooks of the New York Post reports that the NHL is targeting a two-week training camp along with three or four exhibition games per team; the seven that didn’t participate in the Return to Play would get an extra week as had been previously reported.  Instead of teams inviting a significant number of prospects and minor leaguers to camp, they would be capped at 35 players.  Additionally, a conditioning camp before training camp begins has been proposed but is capped to recent draft picks, players on entry-level deals, and tryouts but anyone who participates in it must be invited to training camp.  With the NHL still targeting a start around the first of January, that would have camps kicking off somewhere around mid-to-late December.

Elsewhere around the league:

  • Colorado is expected to reach a settlement with RFA defenseman Devon Toews in advance of Saturday’s scheduled arbitration hearing, notes Adrian Dater of Colorado Hockey Now. The Avalanche acquired the blueliner from the Islanders two weeks ago in exchange for second-round picks in each of the next two drafts.  The 26-year-old is a year away from UFA eligibility and is coming off a strong season that saw him collect 28 points in 68 games while logging 20:31 per night in ice time.  If GM Joe Sakic wants to ensure his new blueliner will be around for more than a year, they’ll need to reach an agreement over the next few days.
  • Red Wings prospect Jared McIsaac suffered an injury with HPK in Finland and has been recalled to Detroit, the SM-liiga team announced. The defenseman’s stint lasted all of one shift and 34 seconds.  McIsaac missed a big chunk of last season while recovering from shoulder surgery and the attempt to make up for that lost time has come to an end in a hurry.

Arbitration Breakdown: Linus Ullmark

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While the Sabres were able to avoid one looming arbitration hearing earlier today when they re-signed Sam Reinhart, they have one on the horizon with goaltender Linus Ullmark.  If they’re unable to reach an agreement before Monday’s hearing, they’ll be forced to await the ruling of the arbitrator as mid-hearing settlements can’t be reached this time.  Here’s a closer look at his case.

Filings

Team: $1.8MM
Player: $4.1MM
Midpoint: $2.95MM

The Numbers

Ullmark has only been an NHL regular for two years now and both of those were spent in basic platoon situations with veteran Carter Hutton.  Hutton has made 78 starts in that span with Ullmark checking in at 68 but the latter has had the slightly better numbers.  The fact that Ullmark hasn’t been able to stake his claim to a bigger share of the workload certainly doesn’t help his arbitration case as it takes away the ability to use mid-tier starters as comparable contracts.  Further restricting his options is his limited NHL experience overall; while he has played in parts of five straight NHL seasons, he hasn’t yet reached 100 games played.

On the flip side, what will help his cause is that Ullmark did improve his numbers considerably last season from his performance in 2018-19.  His save percentage went up by ten points, his GAA went down by 42 points, and his win percentage of 50% was also an improvement and even stands out on a team that only won 43% of his games.  By no means was this a dominant platform year but Ullmark’s improvement will look favorable in the eyes of an arbitrator and helps when looking through comparable contracts.

2019-20 Stats: 34 GP (34 starts), 17-14-3 record, 2.69 GAA, .915 SV%, 1 SO
Career Stats: 97 GP (92 starts), 41-41-10 record, 2.81 GAA, .911 SV%, 3 SO

Potential Comparables

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used.  The contracts below fit within those parameters.  Player salaries (or current-year equivalents) also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides.

Alexandar Georgiev (Rangers): Let’s look at one signed in recent weeks as a starting point.  While this is a post-ELC deal (Ullmark is three seasons past that point), his numbers this season are relatively comparable to Ullmark’s as are his career totals.  On top of that, he subjectively appears to fall within the same category as Ullmark – a young goalie with some perceived upside but whose overall performance seems to fall just below that of a starting netminder.

Contract (2020): Two years, $2.425MM AAV, 2.98 CH%
Platform Stats: 34 GP (32 starts), 17-14-2 record, 3.04 GAA, .910 SV%, 2 SO
Career Stats: 77 GP (71 starts), 35-31-7 record, 3.00 GAA, .913 SV%, 4 SO

Joonas Korpisalo (Blue Jackets): Korpisalo’s playoff performance skews things a bit more in his favor but the regular season numbers are much closer.  His injury paved the way for Elvis Merzlikins to take a big chunk of playing time for himself and as a result, his 2019-20 numbers are quite similar to Ullmark’s and again, he’s a netminder that has yet to establish himself as a full-fledged starter and it’s worth noting as well that Korpisalo signed this deal in the same spot as Ullmark is, one year from UFA eligibility.

Contract (2020): Two years, $2.8MM AAV, 3.44 CH%
Platform Stats: 37 GP (35 starts), 19-12-5 record, 2.60 GAA, .911 SV%, 2 SO
Career Stats: 127 GP (116 starts), 60-43-14 record, 2.80 GAA, .908 SV%, 3 SO

Michal Neuvirth (Capitals) – Given the narrow window to try to work with (possible future starters with mixed results and around 100 career GP), let’s go back in time a little bit.  There was a time where Washington hoped that Neuvirth could be a starter of the future.  His platform year for this contract came in the lockout-shortened season so some extrapolation is necessary.  This likely represents the high end of what Ullmark could stand to realistically receive.

Contract (2013): Two years, $2.4MM AAV, 3.73 CH%
Current-Year Equivalent: $3.04MM
Platform Stats: 13 GP (12 starts), 4-5-2 record, 2.74 GAA, .910 SV%, 0 SO
Career Stats: 121 GP (105 starts), 55-35-11 record, 2.66 GAA, .909 SV%, 7 SO

David Rittich (Flames) – Let’s now look at someone who had even less of a track record than Ullmark.  When Rittich signed this deal, he had basically two years under his belt, one as a backup and one as the strong-side platoon starter.  His platform numbers are slightly better than Ullmark’s but Ullmark’s longer track record could help offset that.  Like Korpisalo, this is another deal in the one year from UFA category.

Contract (2019): Two years, $2.75MM AAV, 3.37 CH%
Current-Year Equivalent: $2.75MM (since the Upper Limit remains unchanged)
Platform Stats: 45 GP (42 starts), 27-9-5 record, 2.61 GAA, .911 SV%, 1 SO
Career Stats: 67 GP (58 starts), 35-15-8 record, 2.70 GAA, .909 SV%, 1 SO

Projection

Going through the list, it starts to become clear where Ullmark’s realistic settling spot is.  A one-year contract should check in a little higher than Georgiev’s but below that of Rittich’s or Korpisalo’s.  (Ullmark’s camp will likely try to argue Neuvirth but the more recent deals are the better comparables.)  If it goes to a hearing, the arbitrator is limited to a one-year award as Ullmark is only one year away from UFA eligibility.  That one-year award should check in around $2.55MM.  If they settle before the hearing and do a two-year contract to avoid having him and Hutton expire at the same time, the AAV should check in closer to $2.7MM, just below Korpisalo and Rittich.  Either way, it should come in below the midpoint of their two filings.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Pacific Notes: Sutter, Leivo, Archibald

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One thing of note Saturday was when the Vancouver Canucks passed on a second potential buyout window. A buyout would only have applied to players making more than a $4MM AAV, which meant the only player that it likely would have applied to was center Brandon Sutter. However, the Canucks opted not to make a move to buy him out, according to Postmedia’s Ben Kuzma.

Sutter, who is entering the final season of a five-year, $21.9MM contract that he signed back in 2015, hasn’t been particularly effective the last two years as injuries have kept him to just 70 games over the two seasons, although he did manage to appear in all 17 playoff games during the most recent playoffs. He finished the 2019-20 season with eight goals and 17 points in 44 games. However, at $4.38MM AAV, the team could have benefitted from a buyout with the team’s cap situation extremely tight. A buyout would have saved the team $2.33MM in cap space this season. However, the team wouldn’t have benefitted much, especially considering they would have to replace Sutter in the lineup somehow. On top of that, the team lost a significant amount of leadership after Chris Tanev and Jacob Markstrom left via free agency. Having Sutter in the locker room is worth something as well.

“We have to be careful that we take everything into consideration before we start buying people out,” Canucks general manager Jim Benning. “He kills penalties and plays a match-up role and losing him would be a big void in the room.”

  • Sticking with the Canucks, Kuzma reports that the team and Benning did offer Josh Leivo, who signed with the Calgary Flames on Saturday, a similar deal. The 27-year-old who played parts of the last two seasons for the Canucks decided against staying. He was acquired midseason in 2018 from the Toronto Maple Leafs and missed the second half of this past season after he suffered a fractured knee cap. He had seven goals and 19 points in 36 games. Leivo signed a one-year deal at $875K with Calgary.
  • Much credit went to Edmonton Oilers general manager Ken Holland who signed unqualified forward Josh Archibald last offseason and saw him thrive. Despite being a perfect candidate for the fourth-line right wing position, the Edmonton Journal’s Kurt Leavins writes that with so many right wings on the roster, he wouldn’t be surprised if the team asked Archibald to move to his off wing and take up a spot on the team’s third line alongside newly signed Kyle Turris and Jesse Puljujarvi. Archibald has showed a knack for offense with 24 goals over the past two seasons and could provide that line with some much needed grit.

Central Notes: Heiskanen, Tolvanen, Wallmark

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The Dallas Stars have been working to improve their team this offseason in hopes of getting back to the Stanley Cup Finals once again. However, the team has also had another focus this offseason, which is to free up enough cap room for the 2021-22 offseason when the entry-level contract of defenseman Miro Heiskanen is up and the 21-year-old will be a restricted free-agent who the Stars would like to lock-up long-term.

Heiskanen has been a key reason for the dominant defense that the Stars have used to push their way to the top. The 21-year-old may have only posted 35 points in 68 games last season, but his defense is what makes him special and it is critical to get the blueliner signed to a long-term deal. To free up cap room, the Stars absorbed the full amount of their cap overages ($3.05MM) for next year as opposed to splitting it between the next two years, saving them $1.52MM in cap room for 2021-22 and chose not to buy out any players to keep extra cap penalties away from that year.

Matthew DeFranks of the Dallas Morning News writes that assuming the plan is to sign Heiskanen to a long-term deal, it likely will cost them somewhere between $8-9MM if you compare his deal to that of Ottawa Senators’ defenseman Thomas Chabot, who signed his long-term deal a year ago with an $8MM AAV. Now with newer contracts such as Vegas’ Alex Pietrangelo and Nashville’s Roman Josi, the market seems set for Heiskanen when the two sides can begin negotiating at the start of the 2020-21 season.

  • With the Nashville Predators having moved out quite a few veteran players during the offseason including Mikael Granlund, Kyle Turris, Nick Bonino and Craig Smith, the team looks likely to be forced to insert a number of young players into their lineup to fill it out. While The Athletic’s Adam Vingan (subscription required) writes the team is still working on trying to bring in Mike Hoffman or Anthony Duclair to fill one of those roles, the Predators will be putting quite a bit on the shoulders of Eeli Tolvanen this year. The 2017 first-rounder is a likely candidate to take on a top-six role with the team after sitting in the AHL for the past two seasons. Tolvanen has only appeared in seven NHL games during that time, but after a 21-goal campaign with Milwaukee last season, he is the most likely candidate to step into the lineup, although it isn’t out of the question that 2019 first-rounder Philip Tomasino could also make the team with a strong camp.
  • While he hasn’t been loaned out to a European team, newly signed Lucas Wallmark is training overseas with Bjorkloven of the Allsvenskan, who play in his hometown of Umea in Sweden, according to a report in HockeyNews.se (translation required). Wallmark will practice and train with the team until the NHL season starts. The 25-year-old joined his third time in a year after being traded at the trade deadline to the Florida Panthers as part of the Vincent Trocheck trade and then was not issued a qualifying offer, making him an unrestricted free-agent. He opted to sign with the Blackhawks.

Martin Hanzal Retires From NHL

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It’s been talked about for quite some time. Martin Hanzal has been considering retirement for quite a while, but he finally decided to retire from professional hockey, according to Arizona Coyotes’ beat writer Craig Morgan. The 33-year-old Hanzal was a solid forward for many years with the Phoenix/Arizona Coyotes, but back injuries cut his career short. He finished his career scoring 127 goals, 338 points and 574 penalty minutes in 673 career NHL games.

“It’s a little bit of a relief because the last couple of years I wasn’t sure if I’d play another NHL game or be healthy again so now it’s official: I am retired from the NHL,” Hanzal said by phone. “If I was healthy, I would probably still be playing, but after three back surgeries and especially after the last one, I just can’t do it anymore. I was doing everything I could after this last one and it took me a year to get back on the ice. When I went to see the doctor again, it was either do another surgery or be done playing. Even the doctor said, ‘We’re not sure another surgery will help.’ I still have a long life ahead of me. I don’t want to do another surgery when it’s not 100 percent sure it will even help.”

Hanzal was a first-round pick by the Phoenix Coyotes in 2005 (17th overall) and debuted with his team in 2007 and played 10 years for the franchise, who at 6-foot-6 and 230 pounds, served as a power forward, who gave the Coyotes’ much of their grit. After 10 years and with an expiring contract, the Coyotes decided to trade Hanzal at the trade deadline to Minnesota in 2017 for a slew of draft picks (which eventually netted Arizona defensemen Pierre-Olivier Joseph and Kevin Bahl – both since traded). Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to help much with Minnesota’s hope of a long playoff run as they were eliminated in five games that year. He then signed a three-year deal to sign with the Dallas Stars, but back issues allowed him only to appear in 45 games over that time before his contract ran out this past year.

Free Agent Profile: Erik Haula

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Despite the excitement of  the free-agent flurry that started off the 2020 offseason, things have calmed down now quite a bit and yet there remain a number of free agents out there for teams to pick up. Yet with little cap room remaining for most the playoff hopefuls, teams are being extra cautious about paying out too much to free agents. especially if they are coming off a down season. That perfectly explains the situation for free-agent center Erik Haula, who has now found himself looking for a fourth team in just two-plus seasons and is coming off a 12-goal campaign last year.

The 29-year-old will be hitting 30 during the 2020-21 season and has dealt with numerous injuries, including a gruesome leg injury that held him to just 15 games in 2018-19. However, that hasn’t stopped teams from showing interest in the center, one of the few potential impact centers remaining on the free-agent market, who was ranked 16th in our PHR Top-50 Free Agents. If healthy, he has the potential to fill a second-line center role or be a top third-line option in the middle. He has the potential to put up goals, scoring 29 goals in Vegas’ inaugural season in 2017-18.

Despite Vegas’ love for Haula, the team even had cap issues after their second season and were forced to send Haula to the Carolina Hurricanes to free up some cap room. Haula signed a three-year, $8.25MM contract ($2.75MM AAV) with Vegas as part of a deal for the Golden Knights to select him in the expansion draft from Minnesota and looked like a significant find after the first year. The injury held up that outlook for the next season and Carolina was hoping to recapture some of that offensive magic last season. Instead, he struggled through more knee injuries on and off and only appeared in 41 games with 12 goals before the Hurricanes packaged him to Florida for Vincent Trocheck. Haula scored no goals in seven games for the Panthers before the team’s season ended.

However in the right system and with plenty of extra time to allow his knee to fully mend, Haula could fill a significant hole in a team’s middle and if everything goes right, could thrive there.

Potential Suitors

Not surprisingly, Haula has received significant interest from at least 10-12 teams, yet no deal has been struck. The forward is likely looking for a potential long-term deal, deals that aren’t really offered to players right now as several free agents have had to ink one-year deals in hopes that the 2021 offseason may prove to be more lucrative and hopes that COVID-19 may settle down in a year.

Perhaps one of the most obvious suitors would be returning to the one team where he had the most success. The Golden Knights might be a perfect fit for Haula as the team was forced to send off center Paul Stastny to Winnipeg to save cap room and with Cody Glass’ rookie season having also been interrupted by injury, there is a clear opening for a No. 2 center in the system. Of course, the team is so tight against the cap that the team doesn’t even have the money for a minimum-salaried deal without clearing more cap room, which will be difficult. The team has already made it clear they will not be moving now back-up goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury, which means they will be spending $12MM on their goalies this coming year.

Rumors that the Pittsburgh Penguins could be looking for a third-line center to fill in some depth for another Stanley Cup run with their veteran squad. Pittsburgh doesn’t have a clear-cut third or fourth-line center, so Haula would be a big addition to a team that needs to get more scoring from their bottom-six. Of course, the team must look at their cap issues as well. Other teams such as the New Jersey Devils and the Vancouver Canucks have come up although there are likely many others, but only the Devils have the cap room to easily bring him in.

Projected Contract

PHR initially projected Haula to receive a three-year, $11.25MM deal, although that number now looks quite high considering some of the contracts that other players have received in the last week or so. Players ranked much higher, such as Evgenii Dadonov and Tyler Toffoli each had to settle for less than they were hoping for. Dadonov received three years and $15MM from Ottawa, while Toffoli signed a four-year deal at $17MM with the Montreal Canadiens.

Considering that Haula is coming off two injury-plagued and disappointing offensive seasons, it doesn’t seem likely that he can easily pry a long-term deal away from any team and may have to sign a one-year “prove it deal,” except for the fact that his services as a center could give him slightly more leverage than most free agents remaining on the market.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Atlantic Notes: Sabres, Stuetzle, Dermott

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With quite a few changes having been made to the Buffalo Sabres roster this offseason, including the additions of Taylor Hall and Eric Staal into their top six, Buffalo News’ Lance Lysowski writes that the team is done upgrading their roster, but a possibility of a trade still exists as the team is overloaded on defense.

The scribe writes that the Sabres could look to find a taker for either Colin Miller or Brandon Montour for a draft pick, which would open up a spot for 23-year-old William Borgen, a highly touted St. Cloud State player who has played just four NHL games so far after two years in the AHL.

  • Ottawa Senators newly-drafted forward Tim Stuetzle might have trouble joining the Senators for the upcoming 2020-21 due to his contract with Alder Manheim in Germany. The European rule is that a player with a valid cannot sign an NHL contract after Aug. 15. While that rule doesn’t make as much sense considering the draft was on Oct. 6, the rule still applies, according to deputy commissioner Bill Daly. The Athletic’s Hailey Salvian (subscription required) writes that Mannheim’s general manager Jan-Axel Alavaara said the only way Stuetzle could play for the Senators this season is if Mannheim releases him from his contract, which would then freely allow the 18-year-old to join Ottawa when the 2020-21 season begins. That would also require the German Federation to sign off on it. Salvian notes that no decision has been made on whether Mannheim would allow Stuetzle out of his contract, but the third-overall pick is still recovering from a fractured hand that he suffered on Oct. 13 and was given a six to eight-week recovery time. Of course, neither the DEL or the NHL have started their seasons with the DEL season having been postponed twice already with a current timetable of a December return. Regardless, expect general manager Pierre Dorion to continue to negotiate with Mannheim.
  • After being forced to accept a one-year pact with the Toronto Maple Leafs, defenseman Travis Dermott will have to bet on himself to benefit from a better deal next season. The blueliner will have to fight for a spot on the Maple Leafs’ blueline, according to Jonas Siegel (subscription required), who adds that Dermott will be fighting for playing time with Justin Holl, Zach Bogosian, Mikko Lehtonen and Rasmus Sandin for the final three spots on Toronto’s defense and easily could be forced to play on his off-hand in order to earn minutes.

Buffalo Sabres Re-Sign Sam Reinhart

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With the filing numbers due today in the arbitration case between the Buffalo Sabres and forward Sam Reinhart, the two sides instead have come to terms on an extension. However, the new deal looks more like one that might have been rewarded by an arbitrator anyhow than the long-term agreement many expected. The Sabres have announced a one-year, $5.2MM deal with their young forward. Reinhart will be a restricted free agent with arbitration rights again next summer.

Reinhart, 24, has seemingly settled for a one-year deal rather than pursue a long-term contract that almost certainly would have resulted in a higher AAV. The team likely pushed for this short-term resolution, perhaps still skeptical about Reinhart’s long-term value. There is no doubting that the 2014 second overall pick is at least a reliable top-six forward that any NHL team would be lucky to have. Reinhart has not missed a game in the past three seasons and has only missed six total since becoming a full-time player in 2015-16. In his five pro seasons, Reinhart has at least 42 points each year, including four 20+ goal seasons and a career high 65 points in 2018-19. While these are impressive numbers, Reinhart’s 82-game pace this past season would have resulted in a decline to 59 points and still would have kept him from cracking 30 goals. The Sabres may simply want to wait one more year, and risk the price tag on Reinhart going up considerably, to see if that 65-point campaign was an outlier or what’s to be expected for years to come.

Should Reinhart return to 60+ point production in 2020-21, he will be looking at a significant raise in the off-season. Now just one year away from unrestricted free agency when this contract expires, the Sabres will be buying up almost entirely UFA years when they re-sign Reinhart to a multi-year deal. What might the market value be for a soon-to-be 25-year-old with multiple 60+ point seasons on his resume who regularly scores 20+ goals and is a possession leader for his team? Easily over $7MM per year.

Another reason why the Sabres might not have wanted to jump on a long-term deal worth $6-7MM annually this off-season is their current salary cap situation. While Buffalo is not quite in cap trouble (see the Taylor Hall contract), their flexibility is starting to run out. After signing Reinhart, CapFriendly projects the Sabres to have just over $9MM in cap space with just 19 players on the current roster. While arbitration was avoided with Reinhart, the club still has a pair of major cases to be settled. Projected starting goaltender Linus Ullmark is scheduled for a hearing on Monday, with the salary range on an award set at $1.8-$4.1MM and a resolution likely to fall somewhere in that area as well. Early next month, they also have a case with Victor Olofsson on the docket. The 25-year-old forward was an older rookie this past season, but his 42 points in 54 games was impressive all the same. A player who outscored Reinhart on an 82-game pace (64 points) in his first NHL season is likely to command a sizeable salary as well. With the result of those two cases still unknown, first-round prospect Casey Mittelstadt in need of a new deal as well, an a couple of additional roster spots still needing to be filled, the Sabres don’t have as much cap space as it may seem and keeping the salary down on Reinhart may have prevented the team from having to make some difficult roster decisions to get under the cap this season.

NHL’s Free Agent Interview Period Could Return

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As if the 2020 off-season wasn’t already going to be strange, what with the October start date and flat salary cap, it also marked a new age in free agency negotiations with the removal of the free agent interview period. Well, it seems this new age may be short-lived. TSN’s Frank Seravalli reports that the NHL’s general managers have already discussed bringing back the interview period, with 48- and 72-hour periods being considered. Such a reinstatement would need to be approved by the NHLPA as well, as it is a collectively-bargained policy.

The interview period, also known as “legal tampering”, occurs just prior to the new league year beginning and the opening of free agency (which until this year has been July 1). It is a period of time in which teams can contact unrestricted free agents and their representation to discuss potential contract terms before the market officially opens. This policy, agreed upon in the previous CBA, led to a rush of contracts when the market opened, implying that teams and UFA’s had not only discussed contract terms, but agreed in principle. Upset that the interview period was being abused, the two sides eliminated the construct when the new CBA was ratified back in July.

Just a few months later, the teams want it back. This off-season has been much slower than usual, going all the way back to the first day the market opened. Being unable to discuss contract terms has undoubtedly impacted GM’s abilities to read market value and plan accordingly. The result has been a number of notable free agents – including two top-10 and 14 top-50 UFA’s per PHR – remaining unsigned several weeks into free agency.

Especially while dealing with the flat cap, this unpredictable market has helped no one. It is understandable why the teams would like it back and it is safe to assume that the players will agree. The interview period structure could certainly stand to be a bit stricter and perhaps a more limited time frame would also help avoid abuse, but a cold opening to free agency seems unsustainable moving forward.

Free Agent Profile: Mikael Granlund

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There are just two free agents left unsigned among the top ten of PHR’s Top 50 UFA’s. One of them, Mike Hoffman, has been a fixture on the rumor mill since the market opened, with as much discussion and speculation as anyone. The other is Mikael Granlund and things have been stunningly quiet surrounding the two-time 60+ point player.

Granlund, 28, is relatively young for a traditional UFA and has over 500 NHL games to his credit, recording over 100 career goals and over 350 career points. He is a proven asset on the power play and penalty kill, an efficient shooter, a strong possession player, and can play major minutes. Granlund may not be a household name, but he has been everything one would expect from a first-round draft pick. So why the apparent lack of interest?

It seems potential NHL suitors may be focused more on Granlund’s recent play rather than looking at the big picture. The versatile forward was traded by the Minnesota Wild to the Nashville Predators at the trade deadline in 2019. Since that time, his scoring rate dropped from .69 to .44 points per game. That is quite the decline and not what any impending free agent wants to see, but should it really be the death knell for Granlund’s prospects on the open market? In less than a season and a half in Nashville, Granlund played for two different head coaches with the Predators. He did not fit the system of former bench boss Peter Laviolette, who held the job through the end of 2018-19 and into early January of this past season. During that time, Granlund’s usage was severely limited compared to his time in Minnesota, both in overall ice time and special teams role. During that time his scoring suffered and he simply did not look like the same player. Once John Hynes took over, Granlund’s play recovered in a big way. He saw an uptick in ice time, began shooting more often and scoring more as a result, and finally won back a consistent power play role. Granlund even tied a career best in possession with a 52.4 Corsi For %.

Granlund’s play in the latter half of this past season more closely resembles his time with the Wild. A reliable top-six forward, Granlund was a pivotal player for Minnesota for over five years after taking on a full-time role at just 21. He topped 20 goals twice and 50 points three times, never finishing with less than 39 points. He also proved himself to be a durable player, missing only nine total games over his final four seasons with the team while skating over 18 minutes per game each year. He also adapted to a move from center to wing without missing a beat and still proved to be a capable pivot when needed.

In the right system, Granlund can still be the player he was in Minnesota and showed flashes of down the stretch this past year, rather than the one who struggled after moving to Nashville. That is why the lack of interest – at least based on close to nothing coming out the rumor mill – remains such a mystery.

Potential Suitors

Unfortunately for Granlund, one of the teams that could most use a player of his ability and has the cap space to sign him is none other than the Nashville Predators. Although Granlund did perform better once Hynes took over, it seems unlikely that he would be open to a return after his experience with the club was sour overall.

The Boston Bruins are also known to be looking for a forward. Granlund would have the opportunity to play with former Minnesota teammate Charlie Coyle and former Nashville teammate Craig Smith on a line that could have instant chemistry. However, the Bruins are lacking in cap space with Jake DeBrusk also in need of a new deal, so one of those two players would need to take a significant discount.

Perhaps the best fit is with the Columbus Blue Jackets. Columbus moved out considerable salary in hopes of landing at least one big time free agent forward, but so far have merely swapped Josh Anderson for Max Domi and signed aging Mikko Koivu, another former Granlund teammate. The team needs to make another splash and inject some more skill into their forward corps and Granlund makes a lot of sense.

By all accounts, the Predators, Bruins, and Blue Jackets are the finalists to sign the aforementioned Hoffman, who PHR has ranked ahead of Granlund among available UFA’s. At least one of these teams seems likely to turn to Granlund when they miss out on Hoffman, which may explain the lack of noise surrounding Granlund while the Hoffman sweepstakes continues.

If it is not one of these three, a rebuilding club like the Ottawa Senators, Detroit Red Wings, Los Angeles Kings or New Jersey Devils makes sense on a one-year “show me” deal. Don’t rule out a return to Minnesota, where Granlund found immense success, but only if the Wild can open up some space.

Projected Contract

PHR initially projected Granlund to land a four-year $20MM deal in free agency and even that $5MM AAV seemed low for a player nearly guaranteed to put up 50+ points for many years still to come. However, the flat cap has had an even bigger impact than anyone imagined on free agent deals and the odds of Granlund getting that term and value seems slim. This rings especially true after Tyler Toffoli and Evgenii Dadonov, both ranked ahead of Granlund, signed such measly deals recently. Based on those two contracts, Granlund is likely looking at an AAV closer to $4MM on a short-term deal.

While Granlund’s slip in production in 2019-20 landed him behind Dadonov and Toffoli in our rankings, he has a more proven history of NHL success than either one and would stand a better chance of making the most of a one-year deal and cashing in as a free agent again next summer. Especially given the forthcoming Expansions Draft next summer, a one-year deal has added value for interested teams. Whether he ultimately signs with a playoff hopeful or a rebuild, a one-year, $4MM contract sounds about right for Granlund at this point – and stands to be an incredible bargain for whoever signs it.

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