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Archives for July 2020

NHL Remains Focused On Full 2020-21 Season

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While the 2020-21 season isn’t expected to start until December, possibly even January, the NHL has maintained in the past that it would like to have a full 82-game regular season to bring stability back to fans. Nothing has changed in the minds of the NHL, according to TSN’s Pierre LeBrun, who reports that the NHL remains committed to a full NHL season next year, even if that means squeezing more games into the calendar.

With the regular season calendar scheduled for 186 days last season, even an optimistic Dec. 1 start-up date would have the NHL regular season finishing in early June. Regardless, the NHL will have to push the playoffs into the summer for a second season in a row. That will likely force the NHL to schedule more back-to-back games and force teams to play a record number of games each month in order to accomplish that feat. That could eventually return the NHL to a truly normal schedule for the 2021-22 season.

TSN’s Brennan Klak writes that a condensed schedule could doom the NHL all-star game and the players’ bye week. The all-star game was scheduled to be in Florida in 2021, but might be forced to be cancelled to conserve calendar space. The scribe also notes that with such a condensed schedule, injuries and back-up goaltending could play major roles in teams’ successes. Therefore depth could be the key for teams’ success.

NHL, NHLPA Hoping To Finalize CBA, Return To Play Agreement Saturday

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The NHL and NHLPA are hoping that they will finalize a six-year CBA agreement today along with a tentative agreement on Phase 3/4 protocols as well as a critical calendar, according to TSN’s Bob McKenzie. Assuming it’s both finalized and ratified, it should provide the league some long-term economic stability with all the issues that have surrounded the league since the COVID-19 pandemic began.

Assuming the new CBA is agreed on today, it would need to be ratified by the Board of Governors and the full membership of the NHLPA, where the players would get 72 hours, starting Monday.

While some details were leaked yesterday, TSN’s Frank Severalli notes a few more additions to return-to-play discussions as well as other CBA changes:

  • Dates for Phase 3/4 will be finalized with trainings camps scheduled to open on July 13. Teams will then be expected to report to their hub cities in either Toronto or Edmonton by July 26 and games expected to begin on Aug. 1. Assuming there are no setbacks, the Stanley Cup should be awarded in the first week of October. The second phase of the draft lottery is expected to be held on Aug. 10 immediately after the play-in series is over. The NHL draft is expected to be in mid-October, with free agency starting on Nov. 1.
  • Players can opt out of the 24-team tournament for any reason without penalty and will receive a playoff share regardless. Bonus pool money has also doubled with players who lose in the play-in round receiving $20K, while the Stanley Cup winners would receive $240K.
  • As reported earlier, Olympic participation for NHL players will be included for the 2022 Beijing Olympics as well as the 2026 Milan Olympics, pending negotiations with the IOC and IIHF.
  • There will be no changes to signing bonuses. It was believed the NHL was trying to limit signing bonuses in the next CBA to no more than 50 percent of the total contract, but this will not take place.
  • Players will now also be allowed to rehab from long-term injuries from any where they want, unless the team can prove it’s not possible from that location.
  • Teams will also no longer have to place players playing in Europe on waivers when they wish to return to the NHL. That was an issue back in 2013 for Ryan O’Reilly, who opted to play in the KHL while holding out for a new deal while with the Colorado Avalanche. The Calgary Flames signed him to an offer sheet. However, had Colorado opted not to match the offer, the Flames would have been forced to place him on waivers since he was playing overseas before he returned and likely would have lost him.

 

July 1st Retrospective: 2019

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July 1st is typically filled with hundreds of millions committed to contracts signed in the early hours of free agency.  However, this is no ordinary year and as a result, the UFA market is on hold for a while yet with the Stanley Cup on pace to be awarded sometime in October with the official offseason expected to start in November.  So instead of there being plenty of new deals to talk about, let’s take a look back at the free agent frenzy from recent years.  Last up in our series is 2019 with 2017 and 2018 being covered earlier in the week.

The previous two openings of the free agent period featured a lot of prominent re-signings without a big flurry of notable players heading elsewhere; there were a few but only a few.  That changed last summer as several significant players opted to head for new teams.

For the purpose of this exercise, we’re limiting our scope to the deals handed out on July 1st itself which means players like Jake Gardiner and Marcus Johansson who were in the top-15 of our UFA list but signed later are not considered here.

Key Re-Signings

Anders Lee (NYI) – 7 years, $49MM – While not the biggest point producer, Lee had 104 goals to his name over the past three seasons which helped him garner considerable interest around the league but his focus was staying in New York and remaining as their captain.  His numbers this season weren’t terrible but he was at his lowest goal-per-game pace since 2015-16 when the pandemic hit while he was hovering around a 50-point pace as well.  They need more than that from Lee to get good value on this deal.

Sebastian Aho (CAR) – 5 years, $42.27MM – Okay, technically, this wasn’t a re-signing as the Canadiens tendered him an offer sheet to get to this point.  But it may as well have been as the potential compensation to the Hurricanes wasn’t enough to give them any pause to match it.  While being more of a playmaker early in his career, Aho showed his scoring touch more often this season, finishing tied for sixth in the league in that department while averaging nearly a point per game.  He looks like he’ll live up to the deal without any issue but this contract does take him to UFA eligibility while he’s in the prime of his career and by the time he hits the open market, the current salary cap concerns should largely be mitigated.

Timo Meier (SJ) – 4 years, $24MM – This one makes it on here for the structure of the deal.  The fourth and final season of the contract carries a $10MM salary which then represents his required qualifying offer in June of 2023 which, given the new salary cap picture, looks potentially even more worrisome.  Meier’s performance this year was lower than 2018-19 but that’s something that could be said for just about everyone in San Jose.  He should provide some value on his current $6MM AAV but that qualifying offer already looms large.

Top AAV Free Agent Signings

(Players changing teams)

Artemi Panarin (NYR) – 7 years, $81.5MM – Everyone knew Panarin was heading for a big payday and yet this deal still raised some eyebrows as it made him the highest-paid winger in NHL history.  Accordingly, at no point will this be viewed as a bargain contract but he lived up to it this season, finishing tied for third in team scoring with 95 points and was only behind Edmonton’s Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in assists with 63.  That’s pretty good company to be in.

Sergei Bobrovsky (FLA) – 7 years, $70MM – He was handed the richest deal ever given to a goalie on the open market (Carey Price’s contract with Montreal was an early extension, not a free agent deal) and the results were anything but pretty.  Bobrovsky struggled pretty much all season long and posted a GAA of 3.23 and a .900 SV%, numbers that aren’t good for a backup let alone a starter.  His contract means he’ll be afforded plenty of opportunities to turn things around but this could be a real problem down the road.

Matt Duchene (NSH) – 7 years, $56MM – His offensive struggles with Columbus after being acquired from Ottawa wound up being a precursor to this season as things did not go well for him this season.  His 13 goals were the lowest of his career while 42 points in 66 games is not the type of production that an $8MM price tag should yield.  The Predators have done plenty to add to their center depth in recent years with the addition of Duchene, Kyle Turris, and Nick Bonino.  Despite all of the money invested in them, it’s still a weak spot.

Joe Pavelski (DAL) – 3 years, $21MM – It came as a bit of a shock that he was willing to leave San Jose after 14 seasons with the team but getting three guaranteed years just 10 days before turning 35 was pretty good on his end.  Unfortunately, the Stars haven’t got much of a reward for that deal just yet as Pavelski turned in basically the worst offensive season of his career in 2019-20 with just 14 goals and 17 assists in 67 games.  There was a risk that he wouldn’t be a top line player by the time the deal was done but not many expected that to happen within the first few months of the contract.

Ones To Forget

Tyler Myers (VAN) – 5 years, $30MM – For all of the flak he takes, Myers has carved out a solid 11-year career so far.  But $6MM for a player that is best used as a fourth defender or lower isn’t a great deal, nor was the five-year term that takes him into his mid-30s.  His point per game average (0.31) was his lowest since his age-22 season in Buffalo in 2012-13.  It’s an overpay in both money and term and that’s not an ideal combination.

Mats Zuccarello (MIN) – 5 years, $30MM – Over the last four years, Zuccarello had reached the 50-point mark three times and played at a 68-point pace in the one he didn’t get there due to injury.  That made him seem like a relatively safe bet on the open market as someone that could come in and provide Minnesota with some consistent production from the second line.  It didn’t happen this season, however, as he had just 15 goals and 22 assists in 65 games while seeing his ice time drop from nearly 20 minutes a night the year before to not even 16 per game in 2019-20.

Anton Stralman (FLA) – 3 years, $16.5MM – While Stralman was brought in to provide some much-needed stability to Florida’s defense (which he did), this was still a hefty price to pay for a veteran boost on the second pairing.  The Panthers found themselves in cost-cutting mode towards the end of the season and a big part of that was this deal along with Bobrovsky’s.  The shorter term makes this a little more palatable but it’s still a big overpayment in terms of AAV.

Wayne Simmonds (NJ) – 1 year, $5MM – After a tough showing in 2018-19 including a poor performance in Nashville, Simmonds opted for a pillow contract with the hopes of cashing in this coming offseason instead.  It’s safe to say that’s not going to happen.  The veteran struggled mightily on a bad New Jersey team and didn’t look much better in Buffalo either where the Devils had to retain half of the remainder of the contract simply to get a 2021 fifth-round pick.

Bargains

Tyler Ennis (OTT) – 1 year, $800K – After having a minimal role with Toronto the year before, Ennis signed with the Senators in the hopes of getting more of an opportunity to play in an offensive role and he responded with 33 points in 61 games before being moved to Calgary at the trade deadline.  He was relatively productive with the Flames as well.  Overall, getting 16 goals and 21 assists for just over the league minimum in a shortened season is one of the better UFA bargains in recent years.

Joakim Ryan (LA) – 1 year, $725K – After playing a limited role in San Jose, Ryan sought a bigger opportunity when he signed with the Kings.  He certainly got that as his average ice time went up by more than six minutes a game while he wound up being voted as the team’s best defenseman and Unsung Hero.  While that is partially an indictment on how much Los Angeles struggled this season, it’s also a sign that Ryan has taken a step forward in his development.  To get that for barely over the minimum was a nice piece of business by GM Rob Blake even if it went under the radar.

Jason Spezza (TOR) – 1 year, $700K – No, Spezza isn’t the player he was in his prime but his true value on the open market was for more than the minimum salary.  However, he wanted to play in his hometown which the Maple Leafs used to their advantage.  To his credit, while his ice time dipped considerably (from 13:16 per game to 10:50), his point per game average was actually higher than his final two seasons in Dallas while he was once again strong at the faceoff dot.  Playing at a 35-point pace from the fourth line is something a lot of players can’t do, let alone ones at the absolute bottom of the salary scale.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Multiple Blues Players Test Positive For COVID-19

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While the NHL isn’t identifying who has tested positive for the coronavirus or which team(s) they play on, it appears that the Blues have been hit by the virus.  Jeremy Rutherford of The Athletic reports (subscription required) that multiple players have tested positive and their identities have not been disclosed.  As a result, the team has closed their practice facility through the weekend with the hopes of reopening on Monday.

Rutherford notes that roughly two-thirds of the team is already in town as part of the second phase of the NHL’s Return to Play protocols.  The remainder don’t have to be back in town until the third phase opens up; while that had been scheduled for July 10th, it may be pushed back a few days as a result of the ongoing CBA and return discussions.

The last announcement from the NHL came back on Monday with 15 players at various team facilities being noted as testing positive.  Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports notes (Twitter link) that he has heard that the number has increased throughout the week.  The NHL’s intention is to update on a weekly basis so it will be a few more days until we find out how many more positive tests there are.

Snapshots: Contract Negotiating, Escrow, Second Draft Lottery

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Trying to negotiate a new contract in the looming new marketplace is going to be tough as the projected salary cap increases aren’t coming for a while like they used to.  Accordingly, how discussions for a new deal occur are likely to change as well.  Speaking with Postmedia’s Jim Matheson, agent Gerry Johansson discussed his approach towards how things may change for a while:

Right now, we’re just giving our players guidance that it could be a tough year. We’re telling them that this is the year to take a deal even if it’s not the one you might want. It’s like musical chairs. There are 100 players and only 75 chairs.

Johansson noted that he doesn’t have many notable players that are slated to become unrestricted free agents in November so his focus will be shifted towards working on extensions for clients like Anaheim’s Ryan Getzlaf and Montreal’s Brendan Gallagher who will be entering the final year of their contracts next season. PuckPedia has a full listing of Johansson’s client list.

Elsewhere around the hockey world:

  • The players have opted to put their final regular season pay into escrow, a decision that had seemed like the probable outcome for a while. Accordingly, the escrow percentage for the season jumped from 14% to 19.55%, notes Gavin Hockey Wealth (Twitter link).  If that seems high, keep in mind that the escrow percentage for the next couple of seasons appears to be slightly higher as the recent CBA talks have that pegged at 20% to help offset the expected drop in league revenues as a result of the pandemic.
  • It doesn’t appear as if we’ll be waiting too long after the completion of the play-in round to know who has the top pick in the 2020 NHL Entry Draft which is tentatively slated to occur sometime in mid-October. In the latest Insider Trading, TSN’s Bob McKenzie reports that the second draft lottery is likely to take place immediately following the conclusion of the best-of-five series which would be around August 10th or 11th.  The second lottery is required after the results of the first lottery revealed that one of the teams that loses in that round will get that top selection with each team having identical one-in-eight chances of winning.

Latest Reported CBA Details

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Although the CBA extension that is part of the NHL’s Return to Play package has not yet been finalized, details have been leaking out in recent days.  Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman provides an update on many of the details that haven’t been reported yet.  Here are some of the details although the full article (which includes information about the Olympics and bubble rules) is definitely worth a read:

  • There is a provision for a one-year extension of the agreement if the amount in escrow owed to owners is $125MM or higher.  Otherwise, the extension will expire in 2026.
  • The plan is to begin raising the Upper Limit of the salary cap once revenues reach $4.8B.  Until then, the cap will sit at $81.5MM, the current number.  Once the revenues reach the desired mark, the cap will be based on the revenue total from two years prior which should allow for a bit more certainty when it comes to general managers trying to plan ahead for their roster construction.
  • Draft picks that are conditional on a player re-signing with a team by a certain date will no longer be permitted.  There were a lot of these in recent years but the Players’ Association rightfully noted that this worked against players when it comes to extension talks as the opportunity cost of not having the conditional draft pick had to be factored in.
  • The minimum salary will increase to $750K for next season (one year earlier than originally scheduled in the current agreement) and eventually reach $800K by the expiration of the deal.  The current minimum is $700K.
  • Players that sign multi-year deals at the age of 35 or older will no longer have their cap hit remain on the books if they retire or have their contract terminated.  This is the situation that the Kings find themselves in when it comes to Ilya Kovalchuk.
  • While escrow will be at 20% for next season, it will drop after that.  It should fall between 14-18% for 2021-22, then dip to 10% for 2022-23, and 6% after that.  This is a big change from the current structure where escrow is not limited.
  • Waived trade protection will now automatically stick with a player once traded.  Currently, the acquiring team has the option of honoring the protection but they aren’t required to.
  • There are no limits to signing bonuses while there are some changes to the year-to-year variability rules for front-loaded long-term contracts.  The cap on the maximum variance between the highest and lowest salary in a single season in those deals will now be 35% (currently 50%).

Talks to finalize the new CBA and other protocols remain ongoing with the hope that a Memorandum of Understanding can be reached over the next few days.  Once that happens, the league and Players’ Association (full player vote, not team representatives) will have to vote to ratify the agreement which will take a few days.

West Notes: Byram, Tryamkin, Kaprizov, Henderson

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Avalanche prospect Bowen Byram has yet to make his NHL debut but he will be on their postseason roster, reports Postmedia’s Steve Ewen.   The 19-year old is coming off of another strong season with Vancouver of the WHL that saw him record 52 points in 50 games while also playing a regular role on Canada’s entry in the World Juniors.  The fourth selection back in 2019 likely won’t contend for a spot in the lineup but if he does get in to due injuries, he will be subject to the nine-game limit without burning the first year of his entry-level contract.

More from the West:

  • Todd Diamond, agent for Canucks RFA defenseman Nikita Tryamkin, indicated an in an appearance on TSN 1040 (audio link) that he expects to get a deal done for his client to return to Vancouver for the 2020-21 season. He also added that there have been no discussions about the team trading Tryamkin’s rights.  The 25-year-old has spent the past three seasons with Yekaterinburg of the KHL after playing a limited role with Vancouver beforehand.  However, with their salary cap situation starting to look murky, the team doesn’t have a ton of flexibility to offer him a contract with a big raise on the $925K he received on his entry-level deal back in 2015-16 and 2016-17.
  • In an appearance on KFAN 100.3 (audio link), Wild GM Bill Guerin told The Athletic’s Michael Russo that “things are going in the right direction” when it comes to winger Kirill Kaprizov. Earlier this week, it was reported that teams would not be permitted to sign players that could then play in the upcoming play-in round, even if they were on their Reserve List; in normal seasons, that would be allowed.  When asked if the team would consider signing Kaprizov and burning the first year of his entry-level deal without playing, Guerin indicated he was open to the possibility along with any other options that come up.  Technically, the deadline to sign Kaprizov to a 2019-20 deal expired on Wednesday after being previously extended by a month; Guerin’s answer hints that another extension may have quietly occurred.
  • A petition to attempt to get the previously-approved funding for a new AHL facility in Henderson, Nevada onto the ballot for their November election has been overturned by City Council for a procedural error, notes Shea Johnson of the Las Vegas Review-Journal. The arena, which is slated to be ready in 2022, involves $42MM in public spending which was the reason for the petition.

Early Signings From The Start Of AHL Free Agency

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While we’ll be waiting until November for the start of NHL free agency to begin, the AHL free agent market still got underway on July 1st like usual.  The limitations are that players had to have been on minor league deals previously and sign another one for next year or head overseas; anyone hoping to convert to an NHL contract will have to wait.  The early indication is that many will be waiting to sign but here is a rundown of the handful of moves made so far.

  • Defenseman Stuart Percy is leaving the AHL and has signed with Vaasan Sport, the SM-liiga team announced.  The 27-year-old was once viewed as a promising NHL prospect and he got into a dozen games with Toronto in the past but has bounced around the minors over the last few years.  He spent parts of the last two seasons with Belleville (Ottawa’s affiliate) but was limited to just five games this season.
  • The Canadiens have signed Sam Vigneault and Corey Schuenemann to minor league deals, per a team release from their affiliate in Laval. Vigneault inked an entry-level deal with Columbus back in 2017 and while the center was non-tendered last summer, he stayed with their farm team in Cleveland where he had 11 goals and five assists in 57 games.  Schuenemann, meanwhile, played his first full professional season in 2019-20 and posted respectable numbers for a blueliner, collecting three goals and 18 helpers in just 44 games with AHL Stockton, Calgary’s affiliate.
  • After spending last season on an AHL deal with Nashville following a non-tender by New Jersey, goaltender Cam Johnson is dipping down a level once again as the Florida Everblades of the ECHL announced (Twitter link) that they’ve signed the 25-year-old to a one-year deal. Johnson actually spent all of this season with the Everblades, posting an impressive 2.32 GAA with a .925 SV% in 21 games so he will remain in Nashville’s extended organization.

Vancouver’s Looming Cap Crunch

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When you think of teams that are going to be hit hard by the anticipated flattening of the salary cap, Toronto and Tampa Bay typically come to mind and justifiably so.  They have top-heavy rosters and are going to have to clear some salary in the near future.  If St. Louis re-signs Alex Pietrangelo, they’ll be in that mix as well.

One team that doesn’t come to mind as quickly is Vancouver.  But the recent reports that the salary cap will remain unchanged for the next two seasons at $81.5MM is going to cause some problems for them both in the short term and long term.

On the surface, things don’t look too bad.  Per CapFriendly, they have nearly $63.5MM in commitments for next season to 14 players.  Having roughly $18MM left to fill out the roster isn’t great but it’s not terrible either.

But let’s chip away at that a little.  By virtue of needing LTIR for basically the entire season, they ended the season with minimal cap space which means any achieved bonuses from this season will be charged against the 2020-21 cap.  Postmedia’s Patrick Johnston provides some details about what was reached in that regard this season.  Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes both hit all of their $850K in ‘A’ bonuses so there’s an extra $1.7MM right there.  Now that cap space is down to $16.3MM.

The Canucks have three prominent unrestricted free agents this offseason that they’ll be looking to retain or replace.  Chief among those is Jacob Markstrom who has established himself as a capable starting goalie by making 160 starts over the past three seasons, compiling a 2.74 GAA with a ..914 save percentage over that span.  Accordingly, he’s going to get a raise on his current $3.67MM price tag even in this depressed marketplace whether it’s with Vancouver or another team on the lookout for a new starting netminder.  If they don’t re-sign him, they’ll still have to spend a similar amount to replace him with another starter so it’s safe to budget a sizable amount of their cap room for Markstrom or someone else.

Chris Tanev is a key part of Vancouver’s back end after spending the last decade there.  Given his injury history and limited production, he may not be able to get his current $4.45MM AAV on his next deal but it will take a few million to re-sign him as well.  Tyler Toffoli fit in quite well after being acquired from the Kings and they’d love to keep him around but with it not being the deepest of UFA classes up front, he may command at or more than his $4.6MM cap hit on his next deal.

Without even getting into their class of RFAs (highlighted by Jake Virtanen), the Canucks may have to chip away from their roster just to keep their team intact.  But that will be easier said than done.  With a lot of teams wanting or needing to do the same, the price to offload a contract should be steep and in Vancouver’s case, the deals they’d want to peddle (Sven Baertschi, Jay Beagle, Loui Eriksson, and Brandon Sutter) are ones that likely already carry negative value.  Micheal Ferland doesn’t have much value either after concussions cost him most of the season and if he’s healthy, they won’t have the ability to put him on LTIR.  They’re also not able to trade off their salary cap recapture penalty on Roberto Luongo’s deal which runs through 2021-22 at a tick over $3MM per year.

Fast forward to the 2021 offseason.  Pettersson and Hughes will be at the end of their entry-level deals and both project to land substantial raises based on how they’ve performed so far.  That will eat up the savings from their expiring contracts (headlined by Alex Edler, Sutter, and Tanner Pearson) quite quickly before even factoring in what it will cost to retain or replace the others.  That will have to be in the back of GM Jim Benning’s mind as he tries to navigate through the November free agent period and decide who to keep or let go from his current group.

Many teams are going to face some tough decisions as a result of this new marketplace but while Vancouver may not be the first team that comes to mind when you think of teams that may be in cap trouble soon, they’re certainly about to be a part of that group.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

East Notes: Seider, Chynoweth, Vejdemo

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Red Wings defenseman Moritz Seider showed some promise in his rookie AHL campaign and was expected to be recalled to finish up the season in Detroit had it not been for the pandemic.  With the start of next season still in question (it’s looking like late December or early January as things stand but still nowhere near being finalized), Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press suggests that the team may wind up loaning him back to Mannheim of the DEL to start next season as it’s unlikely that the AHL will start on schedule if there are still restrictions on how many fans – if any – can attend games.  That would certainly be beneficial from a development perspective but it would also give the sixth-overall pick in 2019 a leg up in a push for a full-time roster spot with the Red Wings next season.

More from the Eastern Conference:

  • While Hurricanes assistant coach Dean Chynoweth briefly hit the market on July 1st, he wasn’t there for long as GM Don Waddell confirmed to the Associated Press that the team has re-signed all of its staff members that they were trying to keep that had deals set to expire at the end of June with the exception of broadcaster John Forslund which means that Chynoweth will remain in the fold. The 51-year-old has spent the last two seasons with Carolina and had prior NHL assistant coaching experience with the Islanders.  Rick Dudley was among those that were not re-signed in what appears to be a mutual decision.
  • The Canadiens have not yet recalled forward Lukas Vejdemo for their upcoming play-in round against Pittsburgh, notes Mattias Ek of HockeyNews.se. The 24-year-old had played in Montreal’s last three games before the rest of the regular season schedule was scrapped so the decision comes as a bit of a surprise.  The pending restricted free agent spent most of the year with AHL Laval but had a goal in seven NHL contests in his first action with the big club.

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