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Deadline Primer: Edmonton Oilers

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With the trade deadline fast approaching, we will be taking a closer look at the situation for each team over the coming weeks.  Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs? As we continue to examine the Pacific Division, here is a look at the Edmonton Oilers.

The Edmonton Oilers have to be buyers, right? While it’s true that the team rostering Connor McDavid missing the playoffs any year, nevertheless two years in a row, is unacceptable, the reality is that much of the trade deadline pressure on the Oilers fell squarely on GM Peter Chiarelli and his job security. Ever since Chiarelli was relieved of his duties, it’s been awfully quiet on the rumor mill out of to Edmonton. It’s not clear how much authority interim GM Keith Gretzky has, but Gretzky is a draft guru anyway who is likely more comfortable adding picks and prospects at the deadline than acquiring rental help.

The fact of the matter is that – even with the front office turnover – Edmonton remains in the thick of the Western Conference wild card race, tied with the Arizona Coyotes, Chicago Blackhawks, and Anaheim Ducks with 51 points and just three points back of the Vancouver Canucks for the final playoff spot. As currently constituted, McDavid and the Oilers may not be favorites to make the postseason, but have a chance. There are many holes in the lineup and not much cap space with which to fill them at the deadline, but the Oilers could certainly push for a wild card spot if the team was able to add some pieces. But after that, they stand little chance of advancing past the first round. The team thus faces a decision of whether they should make trades, for rentals or long-term additions, without a new GM to guide them, to simply make an appearance in the postseason or instead make use of several pending free agents and add some draft capital and prospects to build with – or trade with – once the team has a more clear picture of their roster building plans, even if it hurts their playoff odds.

If the Oilers miss the playoffs again, it will hurt. However, this is a team that simply cannot afford to make any more trade mistakes. Expect Edmonton to play it safe and sell off their expiring contracts. Perhaps they’ll even make a minor hockey trade or two. The risks simply outweigh the benefits when it comes to being a buyer at the deadline this season. McDavid and company will be back in the postseason soon enough, but selling out to do so this year would be a mistake. It seems Gretzky and the interim regime understand that, but you never quite know in Edmonton.

Record

23-25-5, sixth in the Pacific Division

Deadline Status

Moderate Seller

Deadline Cap Space

$4.27MM in full-season cap hit, 0/3 used salary cap retention slots, 48/50 contracts per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2019: EDM 1st, EDM 2nd, NYI 3rd, EDM 4th, EDM 6th, EDM 7th
2020: EDM 1st, EDM 2nd, EDM 3rd, EDM 4th, EDM 5th, EDM 6th

Trade Chips

The whole point of Edmonton being a seller and not a buyer at the deadline is to play it safe until a new GM is at the helm. As such, don’t expect the team to trade established contributors like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins or Darnell Nurse. It also seems unlikely, despite the hype, that draft-minded Gretzky will move 2016 fourth overall pick Jesse Puljujarvi unless he is blown away by an offer. The Oilers have plenty of impending free agents or short-term players that could be of interest to buyers that they don’t need to think big right now.

The one notable name who the Oilers will surely shop is goaltender Cam Talbot. Talbot, 29, had been supplanted as the starter this season by Mikko Koskinen, who Chiarelli signed to an extension on his way out the door. With Koskinen locked up, a handful of promising prospects in the pipeline, and an intriguing free agent market for goalies this summer, Talbot’s time in Edmonton is all but over, despite whispers they could re-sign him. Talbot could wind up being the top keeper on the trade market in the days leading up to the deadline, if Sergei Bobrovsky, Jimmy Howard, and Semyon Varlamov are not moved by their respective teams. Talbot should command a nice return for the Oilers, even in a down year. Third-string journeyman Al Montoya could also be up for grabs.

Up front, Edmonton has gotten little production outside of McDavid, Nugent-Hopkins, and Leon Draisaitl this season, but could find takers for several role players. Alex Chiasson could draw the most interest; the 28-year-old continues to be one of the more underrated players in the NHL and is on pace for a career-high 42 points while playing on a minimum contract. However, Chiasson has been a nice fit for the Oilers this season and it would not be a surprise if the team held on to him through the deadline, both as an “own rental” and in hopes of re-signing him. They likely aren’t as attached to a free agent addition that hasn’t worked out: Tobias Rieder. The impending restricted free agent is a talented and versatile forward, but hasn’t shown it in Edmonton. He has yet to score a goal this season and has just nine assists to show for 39 games. The Oilers surely won’t be qualifying Rieder anyway and will look to move him for the best offer. Another skilled player who hasn’t played well in Edmonton is Ryan Spooner, who recently cleared waivers and has been buried in the minors. If a team is willing to take on Spooner’s $3.1MM salary next season, the Oilers will likely give him away. Honestly, most of Edmonton’s forwards have fallen short of expectations to the point that the team would gladly move them for a reasonable price. RFA Ty Rattie, UFA Brad Malone, and even Zack Kassian and Kyle Brodziak, who have another year remaining on their contracts, could be trade bait. Of course, if anyone is willing to take the albatross that is Milan Lucic’s contract, the Oilers would jump at that chance. That obviously remains a long shot, though.

On the back end, there are fewer options for Edmonton to move, but value exists. Despite the fifth-worst goals against per game and second-worst penalty kill in the NHL, the Oilers have a defense corps that they like, led by Nurse, Oscar Klefbom, and Adam Larsson. Kris Russell and newly-acquired Brandon Manning are also signed beyond this season and are unlikely to move. Instead, UFA’s Alexander Petrovic – who the Oilers only traded for last month – and Kevin Gravel could be nice depth additions for contenders and Edmonton would be willing to give up. They could also entertain offers for Matt Benning, who has one year remaining on an affordable deal. Ethan Bear is a name that keeps showing up in trade rumors; it could be that the Oilers don’t see a fit for the young puck-mover and try to move him in a hockey trade for another young piece.

Five Players To Watch For: G Cam Talbot, F Tobias Rieder, D Kevin Gravel, F Zack Kassian, D Ethan Bear

Team Needs

1) Young Forwards: When the majority of a team’s forwards can be listed as trade possibilities, it’s time for an overhaul. Outside of McDavid, Nugent-Hopkins, Draisaitl, and for their sake Puljujarvi, there are no other forwards currently on the Oilers roster who should compete for top-nine roles next season. Standout AHLers Kailer Yamamoto, Tyler Benson, and Cooper Marody will be given the opportunity to win full-time roles next year, but Edmonton could stand to add some competition. In trading away a valuable piece like Talbot or Spooner or swapping out another young player like Bear, the Oilers should target some young forwards who could challenge for NHL roles next season.

2) Draft Picks: The Oilers don’t want to be in a rebuild any more and, with arguably the best player on the planet on their roster, who can blame them. However, if Edmonton wants to trade for veteran difference-makers this off-season, it helps to have some trade capital. The pipeline is currently shallow and the NHL roster is largely devoid of upside outside of untouchables. Whether they flip the picks they obtain from these small rental deals to make a bigger trade or simply use them to draft replacements for the current prospects they deal away, the Oilers could use some more picks. They currently have just six selections in the upcoming draft and only two in the top 75.

3) Top Pair Defenseman: Again, the smart thing for the Oilers to do at the deadline is play it safe. They have far greater needs than just young forwards and draft picks, including a reliable goaltender, top-six wingers, and – their greatest need – another elite puck-moving defenseman, but they can be handled in the off-season by the new GM. However, if a reasonable offer comes their way that fills one of these needs, particularly the defender, it makes sense to entertain it. Edmonton may have seven veteran defenseman signed through next season, not including some promising prospects, but a top-pair defenseman remains one of their biggest needs. The Oilers get little production from the blue line outside of Nurse and Klefbom, neither of whom are racking up impressive points either. With names like Dougie Hamilton, Justin Faulk, and Alec Martinez floating around, the Oilers just need to keep their options open.

 

Trade Rumors: Predators, Avalanche, Henrique, Ferland

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The Nashville Predators made a splash yesterday when they acquired both Brian Boyle and Cody McLeod to strengthen their bottom-six. However, many continue to speculate that the Preds are not done and in fact remain one of the top players for the market’s most valued rentals forwards. That may not be so, though. NHL.com’s Dan Rosen cites an interview with GM David Poile on 104.5 The Zone in Nashville today in which he spoke about the additions of Boyle and McLeod, the return from injury for center Kyle Turris, and his hope of improvement from young winger Kevin Fiala. “If those guys can do it, we’re probably not making any more moves,” Poile stated. It seems that the veteran executive is willing to wait on pulling the trigger on another trade before he can see if the team improves internally. Poile has never been afraid to make a move at the deadline, but is also a careful dealer. “It’s a little bit of an arms race these couple weeks before the trade deadline and I don’t want to say I would react to what another team does. I mean, first and foremost, you’ve got to take care of your own team,” Poile continued, but did add that “nothing is out of the realm of possibilities… I’m making calls. I’m receiving calls. I’m just looking for an opportunity to improve our team. If that comes our way between now and Feb. 25, I’m all in.”

  • One team that will play it safe at the deadline, and understandably so, are the Colorado Avalanche. The Avs have lost four games straight and eight of their last ten and have fallen out of a playoff spot, all the way to 10th-place in the Western Conference, behind both the Vancouver Canucks and St. Louis Blues for the final wild card slot. Colorado still has the talent to right the ship and reach the postseason, but their total lack of secondary scoring and their inconsistent goaltending have put them in a tough spot. GM Joe Sakic is not about to mortgage the future at the trade deadline when his team may has such serious needs and may not even make the playoffs. Sakic told The Denver Post’s Mike Chambers that he believes the team can get back into playoff position and he may look at some minor trades to help them along, but Colorado’s top trade capital is off the table. This includes both of the team’s first-round pick in 2019, their own and the Ottawa Senators’, the latter of which has strong odds of being the No. 1 overall pick. Also included in the untouchables are top defensive prospects Cale Makar and Conor Timmins and top forward prospects Shane Bowers and Martin Kaut. As such, any sellers dealing with Sakic and company should not expect an overwhelming offer for their rental players and, as a result, Avs fans should not expect fireworks at the deadline.
  • The Anaheim Ducks are desperate for a shake-up. The team has just two wins in their last 19 games, including a current five-game losing streak, and have plummeted to 14th in the Western Conference. The team also has more cap space committed to their roster for next season than any other team in the NHL and are equally desperate for help alleviating that cap crunch. The result is that Ducks players not previously thought to be available are popping up on the rumor mill. It seems almost anyone on the Anaheim roster could be had in the right deal, but Adam Henrique is currently the most talked-about name. TSN’s Frank Seravalli recently moved Henrique up to No. 15 on the Trade Bait List; he had previously been off the board completely. Henrique signed a five-year extension with the Ducks back in July and will carry a $5.825MM cap hit beginning next season. Although Henrique is second in scoring for Anaheim, his 27 points through 54 games is significantly behind his production rate from last season after coming over from the New Jersey, as well as his scoring pace in most seasons with the Devils. With the Ducks in search of both re-shaped roster and a lesser payroll, the underacheiving Henrique could be on his way out of Anaheim before ever playing a full season with the team.
  • TSN’s Trade Bait List also reflects another intriguing change on the trade market. Carolina Hurricanes winger Micheal Ferland, once though to be as good as gone, has fallen down the board to No. 9 overall. While still a high ranking, Seravalli notes that trade talks surrounding Ferland have cooled as the ’Canes may prefer to hold on to him. Colleague Darren Dreger recently reported the same thing, believing Carolina could use Ferland as their “own rental”. The Hurricanes are currently three points behind the Columbus Blue Jackets in pursuit of the final Eastern Conference wild card spot, and have played one more game than Columbus and the Buffalo Sabres. However, when your team has holds a league-worst nine-year playoff drought, you jump on any chance you have to get back to the postseason. Ferland is now looking increasingly likely to stay in Carolina as the team tries to make the most of their stretch run and secure a playoff berth, but their play leading up to the deadline will be the deciding factor when it comes to Ferland’s future this season.

Daniel Winnik Re-Signs In Switzerland

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Late last week it was reported that Geneve-Servette HC of the NLA in Switzerland were working hard to extend veteran NHL forward Daniel Winnik. Winnik, 33, had expressed interest in re-signing with the team, but was reportedly weighing his options for furthering his career. It seems he came to the decision that Geneve-Servette is a long-term fit, as the team today announced a two-year contract extension with Winnik. Tim Bozon, a former Montreal Canadiens prospect, also signed on for two more years with the club.

In the release, GM Chris McSorley stated that “Daniel has become a valuable player (for) the Club; he represents completely the fighting spirit that is expected of our players. He works hard and is a physical player who puts the team first.” Winnik is currently third on the team with 23 points in 31 games and second only to another former NHLer, Cody Almond, in per-game production. An experienced two-way forward, it comes as little surprise that Winnik has developed into a leader and dependable piece for Geneve-Servette in his first season.

However, it is somewhat of a surprise that he was willing to commit to a new contract to stay overseas this soon. Winnik played in 81 games with the Minnesota Wild just last season and was in camp with the Boston Bruins deep into the preseason before being cut. Not only could Winnik have been a potential stretch run signing for a contender, but his strong showing in Switzerland this season may have been enough to earn him another shot next season as well. Yet, Winnik has played with eight different teams over his eleven NHL seasons and – in the twilight of his playing days – is probably content to stay in one place for a while. In the team’s release, Winnik did say “It (means) a lot for me to stay in this great organization. My wife and I love Geneva and look forward to staying two more years”, so this is clearly a decision that the journeyman forward is happy with. Unfortunately, it does mean that we have probably seen the last of Winnik in North America, as he will be 36 years old by the time this contract expires. The hard-working forward certainly made an impact on many teams and fan bases over his respectable NHL career, if it is indeed over.

Poll: Where Will Artemi Panarin Finish The Season?

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The Columbus Blue Jackets have nine games left before the trade deadline. Nine games to decide what to do with two of the best players to ever suit up for the franchise. Nine games to decide whether the team as constructed, or with an addition of some sort, is good enough to contend for the Stanley Cup this season. Nine games before we’re guaranteed an answer as to where Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky will finish the season.

When we asked our readers at PHR in early January where Bobrovsky would end the season, the Blue Jackets were still the strong favorites. It’s difficult to trade a top goaltender in-season, and losing Bobrovsky would put the Blue Jackets in a tough situation going into the playoffs. Bobrovsky has been linked to the Florida Panthers of late, but the Blue Jackets have apparently made him too expensive to trade for this early.

But Panarin, well he might be worth almost anything. The offensive dynamo is a potential game-changing rental addition for many of the clubs around the league, pushing bubble teams into contenders or contenders into powerhouses. His impact would be felt immediately, and is good enough to displace almost anyone off a first line. That dominance is exactly what Craig Custance of The Athletic (subscription required) notes today as he examines the market for Panarin as the deadline approaches. Custance ranks the teams that make the most sense, listing the Nashville Predators as suspect number one for a potential Panarin market.

In doing so, Custance mentions young forward Eeli Tolvanen as a potential piece that could be required to land the Blue Jackets’ forward. Columbus wouldn’t be the only team checking in on the availability of Tolvanen, as Adam Vingan of The Athletic points out on Twitter. Nashville GM David Poile said on radio today that Tolvanen and other prospects have come up in calls and that if an opportunity presents itself to improve the club, he’s “all in.”

Poile has already begun his dealing, trading for Brian Boyle and Cody McLeod yesterday. He explained that he would be perfectly happy with going into the playoffs with the roster as currently constructed, meaning perhaps he won’t go “all in” on Panarin over the next few weeks. That’s why several other teams are listed in Custance’s piece, and why it’s still not clear where “Bread Man”  will end up.

So, like Bobrovsky before, we ask you to voice your opinion on where Panarin will finish the season. Will he lead Columbus to a playoff series victory, or jump on board a speeding train to the Conference Finals? Does he go to a team that is missing the playoffs just so that he can sign an eight-year extension? Cast your vote below and make sure to explain your reasoning in the comments.

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Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Snapshots: Zadina, Byfuglien, Kings

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Filip Zadina has had a difficult year. The sixth-overall pick from 2018 has just 11 goals and 23 points with the Grand Rapids Griffins, and was held to just a single assist at the World Juniors, a tournament he dominated last year. Still, that won’t stop the Detroit Red Wings from giving him a taste of the NHL before the end of the season. GM Ken Holland told Ansar Khan of MLive that Zadina will play a few games with the Red Wings before the end of the year, but won’t go over the nine-game threshold that would make his entry-level contract kick in for this season.

Zadina is an extremely skilled player with a deadly accurate shot, and is still just a teenager playing in a professional league with opponents sometimes more than a decade older than him. Struggles maybe were to be expected, but for the Red Wings success he needs to take another step forward next season. Getting him a taste of what it takes to play in the NHL before the summer will give him even more focus this offseason to come to camp ready to compete in September.

  • Dustin Byfuglien has been activated from injured reserve by the Winnipeg Jets after a 15-game absence, and should immediately help them on their push to finish at the top of the Western Conference. The Jets are still in the market to make a move at the trade deadline, but getting Byfuglien back at this point should feel like a big addition for the last part of the season. The big, mobile defenseman usually logs some of the highest ice time totals in the league and is a physical force that demands respect all over the rink.
  • Los Angeles Kings GM Rob Blake had some snark for the analysts at TSN when speaking with Curtis Zupke of the Los Angeles Times, and explained that there’s not definite time frame on when he’s looking to make moves to improve the club. If there are opportunities like the one he took by trading away Jake Muzzin the Kings will jump all over it, but they’re not rushing to sell off the whole team right away. For what it’s worth, our readership at PHR believes that Tyler Toffoli will be the next player sent packing by the Kings.

Minor Transactions: 02/07/19

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While the NBA sends players all over the league during their trade deadline, the NHL prepares for an extremely busy night on the ice. 28 of the league’s 31 teams will be in action tonight, with prime divisional matchups like Sharks-Flames and Predators-Stars highlighting the action. As always we’ll keep track of all the minor moves as teams prepare for tonight.

  • The Colorado Avalanche have recalled A.J. Greer and Anton Lindholm from the minor leagues, giving the team 22 players for their trip to Washington. The Avalanche are trying to right the ship after plummeting out of the playoff race over the last few weeks. The team now sits in sixth place in the Central with a 22-22-8 record.
  • Joel Eriksson Ek has been recalled by the Minnesota Wild after they lost Mikko Koivu for the rest of the season, and he will take up familiar residence as the team’s third-line center. Eriksson Ek is a talented young player, but will have big shoes to fill in Koivu’s absence.
  • The Anaheim Ducks have recalled Andy Welinski from the minor leagues to take the roster spot of Korbinian Holzer who has left the team for personal reasons. Holzer has been moved to a non-roster designation, while Welinski will become the team’s seventh defenseman for the time being.
  • With Ben Bishop banged up, the Dallas Stars have recalled Landon Bow under emergency conditions. Bow will serve as backup for Anton Khudobin until Bishop, who is listed as day-to-day, is ready to return.

Michael McCarron To Miss Rest Of Season With Shoulder Injury

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If any Montreal Canadiens fans were hoping for a late season Michael McCarron call-up, it isn’t coming. The team announced today that McCarron’s season is over after undergoing shoulder surgery yesterday. The 23-year old forward had been playing with the Laval Rocket in the AHL, and will be a restricted free agent at the end of the year.

McCarron has not turned into the player the Canadiens hoped they were getting at 25th overall in 2013, but was at least having a positive impact in the AHL. With this injury that impact on Laval is over, and there are now serious doubts about McCarron’s future in Montreal. As a restricted free agent with arbitration rights, there is a real chance that the Canadiens could decline to extend a qualifying offer to the young forward, which would allow him to search for another deal elsewhere around the league. His performance so far in the NHL doesn’t scream success in the future, but perhaps a fresh start would spark some development.

In 70 NHL games across the regular season and playoffs McCarron has recorded just eight points, and will be turning 24 before free agency begins. While the Canadiens could extend him a qualifying offer and risk arbitration, there is also the option of trying to re-sign him as an unrestricted free agent to a less expensive two-way deal. That would give him a chance to continue to play for the Rocket, where he had 21 points in 32 games this season. It’s not the end of the line for McCarron, but a major injury like this is just the latest setback in a disappointing career so far.

Kris Versteeg Signs In SHL

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The hockey journey continues for journeyman Kris Versteeg, this time signing with the Vaxjo Lakers of the Swedish Hockey League. Versteeg had played 11 games for Avangard Omsk in the KHL this season, but will now finish out the year in Sweden.

Versteeg, 32, has had one of the most interesting playing careers in recent memory, bouncing around the NHL on a yearly basis. Spending time in Chicago, Toronto, Philadelphia, Florida, Chicago (again), Carolina, Los Angeles and finally Calgary, he was without an NHL job this summer when he decided to take his talents overseas. Injury forced him out of North America, but perhaps there is a chance he could make a return next season.

If the veteran forward can have a good showing in the SHL, there’s no reason to think he couldn’t at least be a depth option in the NHL if he’s willing to suit up in the minor leagues. Versteeg hasn’t played a game in the AHL since the 2007-08 season, but unless he finds a fit overseas it might be his only chance. In 643 games he scored 358 points and won the Stanley Cup twice with the Blackhawks.

Morning Notes: Phaneuf, Kampf, Rasmussen

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The Los Angeles Kings have already traded one veteran defenseman, and now they’re going to sit down another. Dion Phaneuf is expected to be a healthy scratch for the Kings tonight when they take on the Philadelphia Flyers, a move that isn’t totally surprising given the role he’s played this season. Phaneuf has seen more than 17 minutes of ice time just four times this season, and not since early November.

After this season the 33-year old has two years remaining on the massive seven-year, $49MM contract he signed with the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2013 and could be headed towards a buyout in the summer. While the result of a buyout wouldn’t be outstanding for the Kings, having Phaneuf on the roster isn’t helping them much at this point and they have younger players who would benefit from that opportunity. The Ottawa Senators, who retained a portion of Phaneuf’s contract when they traded him to the Kings, would still be responsible for 25% of the salary and cap hit from a buyout.

  • David Kampf will be out of the Chicago Blackhawks lineup for up to a month with a foot injury, the team announced today. Kampf is a restricted free agent at the end of the year and has done enough to show he deserves another contract with the team, but a month off will certainly hurt his negotiating leverage. The 24-year old forward has 16 points in 50 games but is a solid enough depth option down the middle.
  • After a brief conditioning stint in the minor leagues, Michael Rasmussen is expected to be back in the lineup tonight for the Detroit Red Wings. The big center scored twice in three games for the Grand Rapids Griffins, and will look to continue his offensive development in the second half of the season in Detroit. A huge part of their future, the 6’6″ forward had just 13 points in his first 41 games. Playing in the NHL at 19 is an accomplishment in itself, but the team will need more scoring from him going forward.

Jori Lehtera Placed On Waivers

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Thursday: Lehtera has cleared waivers and was immediately assigned to the Lehigh Valley Phantoms.

Wednesday: The house cleaning continues in Philadelphia, where the Flyers have once again placed a veteran forward on waivers. Today GM Chuck Fletcher announced that Jori Lehtera will be placed on waivers at noon.

It’s been a struggle for Lehtera since joining the Flyers to say the least. The 31-year old forward has recorded just 11 points in 89 games since being part of the package that sent Brayden Schenn to the St. Louis Blues, and never fit into the Philadelphia lineup in any real consistent role. Playing just a handful of minutes whenever he did get into the lineup this season, there was little reason to keep him on the roster other than a hope he would somehow crack open that potential he once showed.

As a 27-year old rookie in 2014-15, Lehtera recorded 44 points and earned himself an expensive contract extension. The decision to hand him a three-year, $14.1MM extension on the first day he was eligible for it almost immediately seemed like a mistake, as Lehtera struggled in his sophomore season and recorded just nine goals for the Blues. Things got even worse the following year when the extension actually kicked in, and he was included as a salary dump in the Schenn trade.

For the Flyers, who already waived and sent Dale Weise away from the team, this was an inevitable next step even as they try to climb back into the playoff race with a late push. Lehtera was by no means part of the plan going forward, and there is little reason to keep him on the roster at this point. Burying him would remove just a prorated $1.025MM off his full season cap hit, but would open up a roster spot for one of the Flyers prospects—though, roster limits will also open up after the trade deadline.

Moving forward, a return to the KHL or his native Finland may be in the cards for Lehtera, who found great success overseas before coming to the NHL in the first place. He certainly won’t be receiving anything near his $5MM salary from an NHL organization next season.

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